BASON 2022-23

[BASON]

New thread for the start of the new season. I will likely have a separate thread for the WC which I have already started working on since I plan to do very well once again.

Early bets for me are always much smaller as I try to get a feel for the season.

Crystal Palace +.5 Even - I liked Brentford last year in the opening game against Arsenal and I will go against them once again. They are getting a lot of hype going into the season which is why I think this line is inflated. Palace plays well at home and beat them 3-0 at home at the end of last season. Getting a great price on the +.5. I will be using the +332 in a parlay, likely with Liverpool Ov 3 as I think they may kill Fulham.

I like BTTS in the Bayern game but it is pricey at -220. The better play may be Bayern and BTTS at +134, but I am not 100% sold that Bayern will win this game. So, I put in this parlay:

Bayern BTTS/Palace +1.5/Liverpool Ov 2.5 +200

I play a lot of parlays like this but I rarely post them since not everyone can play them. This is a strategy that works well for me, but probably only best if you have a larger bankroll to play with since it can be very streaky. I tend to use -200 or larger lines on games I like and then add larger buy downs on other games. I also like to play them across days since it can allow for some interesting hedging situations. Still debating on whether to post more of these types of plays, so let me know if you guys are interested in seeing them.

May we all continue to win some $$$ this season!!

 

[BASON]

Palace was just bad. Should have loaded up on Bayern.

Like the Hoffenheim/Gladbach Over tomorrow. I am on it many ways and my best bet for the day.

Also played, Union Berlin -120 as I usually like them at home and I do not think Hertha is that good.

 

[BASON]

Very strong morning, so I put this in:

Dortmund Ov 3/Leicester BTTS Y/Koln BTTS Y +300

May do another adding Leipzig.

 

[BASON]

Looking over all the CL games for tomorrow, one game stands out so I am keeping it simple:

Rangers -123

Maybe I am getting sucked in here, but this line is just way too low for me to ignore. I typically love these situations. They lost 2-0 and now come home. We get the added benefit of playing a game at a very, very tough home stadium where they rarely lose even against very strong competition and they are playing an inexperienced team. I will be very, very surprised if the Rangers lose this game. Hitting it rather hard and will also play the following for the hell of it:

Rangers/PSV Pk/Benfica/Zagreb +844

 

[PittsburghKid]

Absolutely love that game pounded it hard Other day

 

[BASON]

Sometimes it is that easy. Love days like today.

I have Real Madrid already tied a few ways to todays winners so I will post this:

BTTS Yes and Ov 2.5 +114

The Super Cup has seen BTTS in 7 straight, and while I do not like Frankfurts chances very much, I do think they can get one.

 

[BASON]

Played this for today:

Dortmund Ov 2.5/Paderborn Ov 2.5 +152

I prefer to parlay the two at 2.5 versus playing them both straight at 3. Looking forward to the Dortmund game as it should be a good match.

 

[BASON]

Not much time for capping this weekend, but I see two I will put in today:

Bremen Ov 3 +105
Leeds Ov 2.5 -140

 

[BASON]

Winner, winner. Tomorrow:

Chelsea BTTS Y -140
Union Berlin BTTS Y -130

Will likely add some kind of parlay in the Bayern game, maybe BTTS and Ov 2.5. Will try to update.

 

[BASON]

I do not like this nearly as much as last week, but I will take this bet every day at this price:

Rangers Pk -112

The +163 is very tempting, but the PK is the safer bet and at a great price. Just an automatic play for me when you get a great home team at this price. PSV is a good team, but they are not that good.

I also did a 3 team BTTS parlay for all 3 CL games that pays +345

 

[BASON]

I like tomorrows card better:

Benfica -140

I like this game. Kiev has barely played all year and this game is being played in Poland. Benfica is off to a great start and I think they roll again tomorrow against a team that has not really had enough time to get it together.

Qarabag +132

Not as big as Benfica, but I like them at home. This is a team I like to bet at home and they tend to deliver. You are getting a good price. Pk is much safer play but it is pricey so I prefer to take my chances that they win. I was impressed by their win over the Hungarians in the last round. I think they can qualify for the group stage.

 

[BASON]

Qarabag just could not finish, but the big bet came through as Benfica was not really challenged. Too much to go through tomorrow in detail so put this in for fun:

Twente Ov 2.5/Zurich Ov 2.5/West Ham -1.5/Koln -1.5 +706

 

[BASON]

I am sticking to just posting my best big play theory for now in the CL as I think this is all you need to play:

Zagreb -120

This line is way off in my opinion, especially since they lost 1-0 in Norway. They are a great home team playing against a very poor and unproven road team. Bodo lost to Linfield on the road! I only see this game one way, like the Rangers and Benfica (who I like once again, but it is pricey, however I will be using them in parlays) games. Larger play for me.

 

[bases]

who is zagreb playing..dont see it

 

[PittsburghKid]

who is zagreb playing..dont see it

Bodo

 

[bases]

Bodo

thanks..i see its wed..thought it was on tues

 

[BASON]

Not quite as easy as I thought, but another big CL winner!!

I played these three games tomorrow all Over 2.5:

Twente
West Ham
Koln

 

[BASON]

2-1, at least the lowest juicer was the loser. I should have laid off that one.

One for tomorrow:

Freiburg Ov 2.5 -160

I am not opposed to playing this at 3 but I have the bankroll now so I will lay the juice. Also not opposed to Freiburg -1. Bochum is a strong candidate for relegation this year and has been shipping 3 goals a game so far. Last time this was 3-0 and I expect more of the same this time around. Will be using Freiburg ML in parlays.

 

[BASON]

One play for today

Leeds +112 - Just an auto play for me given the number and the fact that Everton sucks. They did not play well Saturday so I expect them to bounce back today.

 

[BASON]

Back and forth on this Dortmund game as I think a lot of the CL teams are looking forward to next week, so I am not that keen on Dortmund. Tempted to take Hoffenheim +1, but put in this since the juice was similar:

BTTS and Ov 2.5

Traditionally this is a high scoring game. I have some doubts that it will be very high scoring but I see a 2-1 game either way at least.

Not playing much in the leagues since CL is around the corner. Really liking this scheduling for now. WC in November creates some chaos.