BASON 2022-23

[BASON]

I did not play much this weekend but going against CL teams worked well. I love me some CL and I will have one big play over the next couple days. Lots of big favorites tomorrow, but there is plenty to like. I put these couple parlays in already:

Benfica TT Ov 2.5/PSG TT Ov 2.5 +287

Celtic BTTS/Zagreb BTTS/Saltzburg BTTS +430

I think Benfica will roll Maccabi given how they have been playing. PSG is all about the CL as is Messi. Not the same Juve so I think they roll them and Messi scores (-114). I also will play their TT separately since I like the plus money.

The BTTS parlay is basically a bet that the home dogs get a goal at home. All are very strong home teams so I like my odds that they get one. Would not be surprised at all to see an upset or two, but I think this is the best way to play it. The stronger play would be to leave out the Zagreb game but I think Chelsea has issues.

More to come and feel free to ask a question if you have one.

 

[Crookity]

I like the plays Bason, good luck. Your right about there being some live dogs out there this week. You never know how it is going to go, but I see some very competitive games on deck.

 

[BASON]

Fucking Chelsea. Tuchel is just a disaster of a manager. He has no clue what to do with this team and I think he is wearing out his welcome with the players. Everywhere he goes he has tons of talent and can not get it done. He is not a good manager and I doubt he makes it through the season. I will parlay the remaining two again.

 

[PittsburghKid]

Fucking Chelsea. Tuchel is just a disaster of a manager. He has no clue what to do with this team and I think he is wearing out his welcome with the players. Everywhere he goes he has tons of talent and can not get it done. He is not a good manager and I doubt he makes it through the season. I will parlay the remaining two again.

Way too defensive against a team you shouldn’t need to be against. Chelsea is also vastly different without Kante it appears Roaming the midfield

 

[BASON]

Well, that didn't work out. We get it back tomorrow.

One larger play for tomorrow:

Bayern -117

Big plays have been working out so I hope it continues. Bayern's whole focus is the champions league as evidenced by their poor performance over the weekend. They know how important it is to start strong in group play. They dominated group play last year and I expect the same this year. This will be a tough game, but Inter is just not as good as Bayern. If they come to play, they will win this game. There is a reason they are laying this price on the road.

This is all I am going to play similar to the last larger plays.

 

[BASON]

Another big winner in CL.

Not playing anything tomorrow as I have Bayern tied to some football parlays so I am just going to ride them out.

 

[Tommy Shelby]

Not playing anything tomorrow as I have Bayern tied to some football parlays so I am just going to ride them out.[/QUOTE]

I have many many with Alabama as I am sure you do as well.

 

[BASON]

Man I love this CL schedule.

I have been through this Bayern game a few times. Bottom line: no way I go against them at home in the CL no matter what the circumstances. I know I have a German bias, but for me, it is just impossible to overlook their performance in the group stages of the CL and their recent performances against Barca, so I am staying away from the game results. I think goals is the way to play this game and I am playing it one way big:

Bayern/Barca Ov 3.5 -111

This game is likely to be a shootout. Bayern's struggles remain in the back line but their attack is world class. Given Barca's recent form, Lewandoski's return ( I will play him to score anytime at -108 and also think there is great value in the Barca team total line Ov 1.5), and the fact that Bayern has completely routed and embarrassed Barca recently, I feel good that we will see goals in this game.

Tough day to limit plays but here is the other plays I made:

Ajax/Pool BTTS and Ov 2.5 -147

Atletico/Marseille/Porto +633

I like the two home teams in the parlay and am not against a straight play on Marseille given the low line, but I am just trying to limit my number of plays. Just fantastic value in the Atletico line in my opinion. Leverkusen have been awful this year, so I will take +166 all day long.

I know Kid is on Pool, so I am going with the BTTS parlay as a good size play as I think Ajax will give them all they can handle. Their away record in European competition is unreal as they have only lost 2 of their last 25 away games, so the +1 is extremely tempting, but I like the BTTS and Ov 2.5. I am also very tempted to take Sporting Lisbon at home. I may open a parlay with them.

 

[BASON]

That was a swift kick in the balls. Barca proves they are not really back to top form by getting shut out. Just horrible finishing by them as Lewandowski misses two chances he almost always finishes. They should have had at least 2 goals. Games like that just drive me nuts. Should have been an easy winner. Of course I doubled up at halftime and that pushed.

Late Liverpool goal saved the day from disaster, but it should have been better. Oh well, that is soccer.

 

[BASON]

I do not like a lot today. I will use Shakhtar +212 in an open parlay given the price. I really do not understand that line. The one play I already put in was:

Haaland to score 2+ goals +174

I think City will thrash Dortmund today so if City scores goals, Haaland gets goals. He is a machine. Worth a bet at this price.

I also like the City TT Ov 2.5 but it is pricey at -151.

 

[BASON]

I honestly recommend taking a break during this international break. Most really do not want to play these games. Almost all WC squads are decided, so no one wants to show anything or get hurt. Having said all that, I did make a play in the US game since it is at 8:30 in the morning and I want to watch it:

BTTS Y -120

I could go on and on about Berhalter and the US team, but all I will say is that Zimmerman and Long are not very good. Berhalter loves them and they play in the MLS (I firmly believe the US has a MLS quota for Qatar), so they play. My guess is Long gets exposed tomorrow. Should be at least a 1-1 game and we are getting decent odds.

 

[BASON]

Call me a sucker but I am betting tomorrow's game:

USA Even

I have a ton of issues with how this team is run and with Berhalter. However, given the pathetic performance against Japan and all the negative press surrounding it, I think this team has to bounce back. If they don't, they might as well not make the trip to Qatar. I say 2-0 USA.

 

[BASON]

Well, I needed to take a break and get some perspective, but I have had about enough of this US team. I said from the start that Berhalter was not qualified for this job and he has only proven me right. These last two warm ups were embarrassing. He can not get this team ready to play and they are regressing under his leadership. He does not demand nor get the respect from the top players because they know he is not qualified to coach them. At this level, you simply need to put your absolute best players on the field at the positions they are best suited for and let them play (Eric Wynalda went off about this yesterday). Berhalter is arrogant enough to think he has a "system" and the players have to fit into it. He is not qualified to coach any of the teams his players play for, so how are they going to adapt to his system. He should be adapting to them!!

His system means playing MLS players and putting others out of position. I have also said from the start that Berhalter was chosen because he will do what US Soccer wants him to do. This is why no real coach will take the job. People have called me nuts, but I firmly believe their is a MLS quota for the US national team. His continued use of players like Long, Morris, Acosta, Zimmerman and Arriola just confirm this. Especially, Aaron Long, as his is atrocious. How Ream does not get a look is ridiculous, especially since the US is playing Wales and England. If the US going into the WC with Long and Zimmerman in the back, they are cooked. I also think promises were made to some players to get them to play for the US. Pepi is certainly one of these guys. The kid has potential, but no way in hell should he be on this WC team. Pekok is the best striker they have and he doesn't look like he will even make the team. The man is tearing it up in the Bundesliga and can not make the team ahead of Pepi or Ferreira? Give me a break. Pekok and Sargent are miles ahead of those two. The US has talent but Berhalter has no clue how to use it.

I could go on and on but I just have no faith in the heads of US Soccer. They are a bunch of bean counters that know nothing about the game. The US certainly has the talent to get out of their group. When they play well they are better than Wales and Iran, but Berhalter will screw this up by not putting the best team on the field. In my opinion, if they do not beat Wales in the first game, they are cooked. So many think they can go into the last game with Iran with a point, win, and move on. Iran is no push over at all. They are just as good, if not better, than Japan who just owned the US. Also, they will be greatly incentivized to bet the USA no matter what the circumstances. They will be heroes.

I want the US to do well, but the other part of me wants Berhalter gone. The best chance the US will ever have to advance far in the WC will be in the next cycle when they play at home with the best overall talent pool they have ever had. They deserve a coach that recognizes this talent and puts the best team on the field and Berhalter is certainly not the man for that job. I hope he proves me wrong, but I doubt it.

 

[BASON]

Back to CL!! Hope to make some $$ today:

Ajax/Napoli BTTS and Ov 2.5 -120

This is my number one play today. BTTS is -198 but the parlay is -120? Would be very surprised if this is a 1-1 draw. We have a great home team that always scores against one of the hottest teams in the world right now. I think this is the game of the day. I think we see something like a 2-2 draw, so I like this bet at this number.

Barcelona -124

I just have to continue to play against Inter who are struggling. Barca meanwhile are rolling and want to get a road win after losing to Bayern. I thought this line would be higher, so I will gladly take it.

I like a lot today, but limiting my plays and increasing my bets has been working in CL, so I will continue to limit the plays, but I will play around with parlays using these games:

Porto +108 or Pk -185
Frankfurt +230 or +.5 -140
Bayern TT Ov 3.5 -123
Ajax Ov 2.5 -166

You want more risk play Porto and Frankfurt MLs for a +1894 payout. Play them Pk and +.5 it goes down to +666.

I just have a feeling Frankfurt is going to win today as I have not liked the way Spurs have been playing. Also, hard to like Leverkusen on the road against anyone right now. If Bayern comes to play, and they usually do in CL, they may win 6-0 today.

 

[Crookity]

Good luck, love the Napoli/Ajax Over :0074

 

[johnnyb]

great 1H for the btts and over 2.5 ajax/napoli

crazy end to 1H of porto v lever. good lord

thanks for posting, bason. much appreciated!

 

[BASON]

Thanks Johnny, came close to completely crushing it, but still a good day despite the Barca loss.

Two for tomorrow:

Benfica/PSG BTTS and Ov 2.5 -136

Same bigger play as yesterday. Feel good about Benfica scoring at home and PSG will get theirs.

Salzburg to win and Ov 2.5 +150

I can go many ways with this game, but I think this is the best value. Salzburg is a great home team and they hold their own against the best there so I think they win this game. I also expect some goals so I considered the BTTS bet and over or simply the over, or Salzburg, but we get much better odds with the Salzburg win and the over, but not against BTTS and Ov 2.5 here also.

Will likely use Leipzig in a parlay.

 

[BASON]

Yesterday just sucked. I hate betting on PSG and they proved why once again. Could not believe we did not get a second half goal. Oh well, had a strong run in CL, so it was just a small set back.

One game for today:

Cologne Ov 3 -103

Koln is playing great right now as evidenced by their 3-2 win over Dortmund last weekend. I expect them to score goals in this game. If they come to play, I think they score 3 themselves. Partisan has also been scoring a lot this season but against lesser competition. I considered the BTTS and Ov 2.5 +104, but I prefer the 3 just in case Partisan does not score.

 

[Crookity]

Koln has been tearing up some offensive metrics in Bundesliga. I have their game against Gladbach circled this Sunday. Good luck

 

[BASON]

Obviously they were looking forward to that one also. Really bad call.