BASON 2022-23

[BASON]

CL for tomorrow:

Dortmund/PSG +130

Both these teams have to win at home and I think they both take care of business. Larger play for me. I will probably add Barca to this for a +230 payout as they are in a must win situation also.

Zagreb Ov 2.5 -104

I know how the last game went and it cost me money, but Zagreb is not going to play the same way that did in Salzburg. I think they will be much more aggressive in a game that they have to win. This should open up the game.

 

[BASON]

The schedule is definitely starting to affect these teams as I am just not seeing the quality of play you would expect.  The best teams are resting players and not playing all out.  Certainly making it tougher to cap.  No excuses though, I need to be better.

I have had this play circled, and I am still playing it despite the line moving somewhat against me, just not as big:

Leverkusen +113

This team has been a serious underachiever this year, but it is a team with talent.  Something was going on with the coach, and now that he is gone, I think you will see them play much better as they did in the league last weekend.  Despite their run of play, they still have a chance to move on in their group.  I expect to see a strong effort from them at home in a game they can win.

Barcelona -209 or -1 -129

Yesterday has me a little scared of this play, but I am sticking with it.  I am laying the lumber but I would still play it at -1.  It is just an absolute must win game for them.  There is no way they want to have to get a result, let alone a win, against Bayern to move on.  Plus, they can not count on Inter not beating Pilzen.  Given all the $$ they spent, it would be a disaster for them not to get out of this group.  If I lose this one, I will likely be done until the WC as I do not want to lose any more of the bank roll I have already.




 

 

[Crookity]

Good luck Bason I agree wholeheartedly that the compact schedule is clearly affecting the quality of play, and adds another element that makes capping these games tricky.

 

[BASON]

I want to wait til the WC, but I have to make one play for tomorrow:

Bayern +185 or Pk +113 - I just think this line is ridiculous. First, Bayern owns Barca, look at the history. Second, Barca is out. They have to win and Inter has to lose to Pilzen at home. Pilzen is an MLS team. Third, Bayern is a juggernaut in the group stage especially on the road. Finally, even though Bayern is through already, I think their record in this stage matters to them and they would love to bury Barca once again. They just have a history of not letting down in this stage no matter what the circumstances. Plus, I think they are the better team. Maybe it all looks to easy, and the way things have gone recently maybe I should lay off, but at the end of the day there is no way in hell I am passing on this kind of price.

 

[HERB DEAN]

like taking candy from a baby :00hour

 

[BASON]

Thanks Herb, I wish they were all that easy, but it feels good to nail a big one.

 

[BASON]

Another situation I have to play today:

Hoffenheim +115

Koln played on Friday and now has to play today. Very unusual situation to play on such short rest. They also had to travel, so I think this could be a tough spot for them today.

 

[BASON]

Bayern/PSG

I love it. This is what PSG gets for screwing around and not winning the group. My buddy and I were talking about this just yesterday and made this prediction. Made my day!!!

 

[lowell]

Would love to get your World Cup group winner picks sometime in the next week along with semis and finals pick. Thanks!

 

[BASON]

Should have them up by the middle of next week. Been working on it a long while. Going to skip the marathon write ups this go round and just post some thoughts as I prefer to play games versus group winners, etc.

 

[johnnyb]

can't wait to see them! thanks!