BASON'S WORLD CUP

[BASON]

I will post everything World Cup related in here. I will start with some musings on the groups and a few bets I like. I will note that I do not make many, if any, future type bets. It is just not my thing as I prefer to play game to game, but I will post some thoughts and I may make a couple plays.

I absolutely love the WC. I have been to a few and all were the best vacations I have ever had. Now, I have to admit that I am not a fan of the logistics for this WC. No way this should be in Qatar let alone disrupting the schedules of every major league in the world. I think it is a disgrace what FIFA has done. Okay, I just had to get that off my chest. I remain excited though.

Every WC is different and I think this one is unique for a few reasons. First, no one has a real territorial advantage. The ones who might are not strong teams so I think this levels the playing field somewhat for the stronger teams from Europe and South America. Second, it could be balls hot for some games. Not normally a big concern, but all these players have been playing a brutal schedule with their clubs and some have lingering injuries so it is a concern. Lastly, there are no third place teams. Only the top 2 will survive. This will alter play. No one wants to lose the first game, so I think we will see a lot of conservative play, especially in the first two games. This definitely affects the handicapping of those games.

I tend to play about every game one way or another, but I will limit my postings to what I consider to be the best plays. Please feel free to chime in at any time and ask questions, etc. I may not always be quick to respond but I like having discussions versus just posting. I always have an opinion so don't be afraid to ask.

All of the lines for my plays or suggestions will come from Heritage. They are my preferred book for soccer as they have just about every play you can imagine and they have a dedicated soccer site.

Time to get ready!!

Back with much more very soon.

 

[BASON]

Group A

Not much to discuss here. Dutch are the class of the group and I expect them to win it. Battle will be for second and it is hard to fully analyze without really knowing the status of Mane for Senegal as he is the key to their success. If healthy, I favor them to finish second in the group, if not, I favor Ecuador who is better than most think. They have a ton of speed and like to attack. I expect Qatar to battle and hope for some draws but they are outclassed talent wise. The only possible bet I would consider for this group is Ecuador +100 to advance, but this depends on the health of Mane. I do not think he is healthy enough to play in the group stage. I think Senegal kept him on the squad because he is their leader. I will keep an eye out.

Group B

Have to admit I really do not have a clue who to pick in this group. Obviously, England is the big favorite, but no way I trust this team. You can not ignore their recent play and the fact that they always underperform. Ironically, they are now in a group they should win and then get a favorable draw. Despite all this I simply do not trust them. Unfortunately, I also do not trust Greg Berhalter. Specifically, I do not trust him to put his best team on the field. I think the Wales game is the US's World Cup. In my opinion, they have to win this game. They are the better team, so if they come out confident and play aggressive soccer they will win. However, I highly doubt they play that way. If they play not to lose, they will not win this game. I actually think they have a shot to win the group if they win this game. I simply do not trust them. Wales is a capable team. They know England and they know how to play close games. I think the wild card in this group is Iran. Everyone is discounting them, but they play a frustrating style that can produce results. I have said from the start that the US does not want to be in a must win position against them in the last game, which is why I think it is imperative they beat Wales in the first game. I do not expect a lot of goals in this group at all and could see a couple teams tied with 4 points. I see not bets here. A friend gave me a ticket for my birthday for the US to win the group at +500 so that is enough for me!

Group C

I think group C is more interesting than most think. Argentina is certainly one of the most hyped teams, but I am not completely buying it. They are good for sure, but they are by no means a lock to win the group for me. Poland and Mexico will provide solid competition. Now, I am not very high on Mexico. They have not looked good at all this year and I think they will struggle, but they are a wild card since they have the talent to beat anyone in the world. My sleeper in this group is Poland. They are a talented team with one of the best strikers in the world but they have been absolutely terrible in big tournaments. Poland's WC is the first game with Mexico. If they win this game they have a real shot at advancing or even winning the group. I like Poland in a Pk -108 in that first game against Mexico, but I do expect it to be very tightly played since both teams expect to beat Saudi Arabia so they do not want to lose this game. I have some hope they play more aggressive given their recent history. I prefer to simply play the first game versus the group but I like them to advance at -120. I also think they are a decent value at +450 to win the group. They have a shot if they can beat Mexico and get a draw with Argentina. Not likely, but some value in that line.

 

[lowell]

Thanks for the tips. I have 2 entries into WC contest and I need all the help I can get. Thoughts on Belgium, France and Brazil? I am going w the Dutch to win. Thanks

 

[Crookity]

Thanks for the tips. I have 2 entries into WC contest and I need all the help I can get. Thoughts on Belgium, France and Brazil? I am going w the Dutch to win. Thanks

I know this was not directed at me, and Kidd made a comment about them already...

BELGIUM = PAPER TIGER

 

[lowell]

I know this was not directed at me, and Kidd made a comment about them already...

BELGIUM = PAPER TIGER

Thanks for your input. I know very little about soccer. Who are your top 4 teams?

 

[BASON]

Group D

Only thing to discuss in this group is the positioning of France and Denmark. I do not think Australia and Tunisia have a shot in this group. France is completely loaded and should win the group, but I think Denmark has shot and may not be a bad bet at +180. They play each other in the second game so a draw is a distinct possibility so it could come down to who scores the most against the other two, which likely favors France. The winner of this group gets a great draw since they get the second place finisher in Group C (Poland or Mexico) and then probably the winner of the US group. France is just too chalky for me.

Group E

Now, this is a very interesting group. Spain and Germany are top teams and you can not overlook Japan. They can frustrate teams. Poor Costa Rica has no shot in this group. I would be surprised if they score a goal and they are probably the best bet to be the lowest scoring team. I like Japan, but they got a bad break as I simply do not think they can beat Germany or Spain, but if you were to make any bet in this group I think it would be for them to advance at +340. No value at all in Spain or Germany and there is always a chance one of them lays an egg like Germany in the last WC. The group likely comes down to the Spain/Germany match which is the second match. I know I have a German bias, but the one thing that I like about this team is that many of them already play together. Bayern dominates this team and I think that is an advantage in this WC given the schedule. Most teams have players from all over the club world that do not get a chance to play together that often. Look at the US team. Their top players have rarely all played together. I think this is a factor in this WC. As such, I tend to favor Germany in this group. Second place in this group likely gets Belgium next so winning the group important.

Group F

Belgium is not getting enough respect in my opinion. This is one line I am betting, Belgium -163 to win the group. I think they are the class of this group and will win it. Croatia is not the same Croatia as they are aging and have many new players. Morocco can play and I think they have a chance to finish second in this group. In fact, I think they are a decent value at +229 to qualify. Canada is a great story, but I just do not trust them. They will compete but I do not think they have enough to move on.

Group G

Another group where I am making a bet. Brazil -275 to win the group. Yes, it is pricey, and, yes, it is a square play, but they have the best team in this tournament and have won every group since 1982. It is all about making money. I simply do not see them losing so I am willing to lay the lumber. The rest of the group is very interesting though. I think any of the other 3 teams can move on. The Swiss are the favorites followed by Serbia, but the best value is Cameroon +300. African teams are very, very, very unpredictable. The talent is there, but you never know what you are going to get. These 3 teams should produce some interesting games.

Group H

This is another where I am having trouble predicating a winner. Portugal is the clear favorite but I do not trust them at all. Uruguay has some value at +187 to win the group. Remember the second place finisher likely gets Brazil so winning this group is at a premium. The reason I have trouble with the group is because South Korea and Ghana are not push overs. Both can give the favorites a run for their money. I would not be surprised to see an upset or two in this group. I think we will see some value in the individual game lines in this group.


Sorry I could not go into more detail, but I wanted to keep these short and sweet since I do not focus on better group futures. I love talking about them but find better bets in the actual games especially as we get deeper into the tournament.

There is one future play that I am making a bet on:

Golden Boot - Vinicius Jr. +2500

I think this is worth a couple bucks. Brazil is the tournament favorite and I see them going far, so they are going to score some goals. Neymar is +1200, but I think Jr is a much better value. He is a beast and I expect him to lead Brazil in goals which should mean his is one of the top scorers in the tournament.

Who wins?

I hate chalk, always have, but I am leaning towards the chalk here. I do think Brazil has the best overall team. They dominated qualifying in South America which is not easy to do. If they can put the egos aside and play as a team, I think they win. I also like their side of the draw. At +400 they would be my bet, but I would play the Group G winner at +425 to get some extra bucks.

Now, who else has value to win? I said before that Belgium is undervalued. If they can get past the round of 16, likely against Germany/Spain, they can make a strong run. At +1900 you are certainly getting paid and I think they do have a chance. I also think that side of the bracket could be wide open. You could have France, England, Germany, Belgium and Portugal all on the same side. Could be a EURO championship. On the other side you could have Brazil, Argentina, Dutch and Spain. You know FIFA wants a Brazil/Argentina semi-final!!

There will always be a wild card or two thrown in which is why the World Cup is such a great event.

The other wild card is how these games are officiated and how bad VAR is. VAR was completely new the last WC and I was shocked at how well it was used. However, I have some doubts this time around given the change in the technology. My biggest concern is that we will see a lot of goals overturned because of ridiculous offsides calls. The last WC they were good about only calling offsides when looking at it shoulder to shoulder. Now, with the new tech, they call offsides when a finger nail is ahead of the player. It is going to be very interesting to watch as these calls could affect a lot of games. With FIFA's ridiculous notions of fairness, we also have a lot of officials that do not belong there which always creates issues. Just like this WC should not be in Qatar, there are many officials that do not belong.

Okay, that is enough for now. We are less than a week away, so time to get excited. Please feel free to chime in and ask questions, etc. I will be working on games all week.

 

[Crookity]

Group D

Only thing to discuss in this group is the positioning of France and Denmark. I do not think Australia and Tunisia have a shot in this group. France is completely loaded and should win the group, but I think Denmark has shot and may not be a bad bet at +180. They play each other in the second game so a draw is a distinct possibility so it could come down to who scores the most against the other two, which likely favors France. The winner of this group gets a great draw since they get the second place finisher in Group C (Poland or Mexico) and then probably the winner of the US group. France is just too chalky for me.

Group E

Now, this is a very interesting group. Spain and Germany are top teams and you can not overlook Japan. They can frustrate teams. Poor Costa Rica has no shot in this group. I would be surprised if they score a goal and they are probably the best bet to be the lowest scoring team. I like Japan, but they got a bad break as I simply do not think they can beat Germany or Spain, but if you were to make any bet in this group I think it would be for them to advance at +340. No value at all in Spain or Germany and there is always a chance one of them lays an egg like Germany in the last WC. The group likely comes down to the Spain/Germany match which is the second match. I know I have a German bias, but the one thing that I like about this team is that many of them already play together. Bayern dominates this team and I think that is an advantage in this WC given the schedule. Most teams have players from all over the club world that do not get a chance to play together that often. Look at the US team. Their top players have rarely all played together. I think this is a factor in this WC. As such, I tend to favor Germany in this group. Second place in this group likely gets Belgium next so winning the group important.

Group F

Belgium is not getting enough respect in my opinion. This is one line I am betting, Belgium -163 to win the group. I think they are the class of this group and will win it. Croatia is not the same Croatia as they are aging and have many new players. Morocco can play and I think they have a chance to finish second in this group. In fact, I think they are a decent value at +229 to qualify. Canada is a great story, but I just do not trust them. They will compete but I do not think they have enough to move on.

Group G

Another group where I am making a bet. Brazil -275 to win the group. Yes, it is pricey, and, yes, it is a square play, but they have the best team in this tournament and have won every group since 1982. It is all about making money. I simply do not see them losing so I am willing to lay the lumber. The rest of the group is very interesting though. I think any of the other 3 teams can move on. The Swiss are the favorites followed by Serbia, but the best value is Cameroon +300. African teams are very, very, very unpredictable. The talent is there, but you never know what you are going to get. These 3 teams should produce some interesting games.

Group H

This is another where I am having trouble predicating a winner. Portugal is the clear favorite but I do not trust them at all. Uruguay has some value at +187 to win the group. Remember the second place finisher likely gets Brazil so winning this group is at a premium. The reason I have trouble with the group is because South Korea and Ghana are not push overs. Both can give the favorites a run for their money. I would not be surprised to see an upset or two in this group. I think we will see some value in the individual game lines in this group.


Sorry I could not go into more detail, but I wanted to keep these short and sweet since I do not focus on better group futures. I love talking about them but find better bets in the actual games especially as we get deeper into the tournament.

There is one future play that I am making a bet on:

Golden Boot - Vinicius Jr. +2500

I think this is worth a couple bucks. Brazil is the tournament favorite and I see them going far, so they are going to score some goals. Neymar is +1200, but I think Jr is a much better value. He is a beast and I expect him to lead Brazil in goals which should mean his is one of the top scorers in the tournament.

Who wins?

I hate chalk, always have, but I am leaning towards the chalk here. I do think Brazil has the best overall team. They dominated qualifying in South America which is not easy to do. If they can put the egos aside and play as a team, I think they win. I also like their side of the draw. At +400 they would be my bet, but I would play the Group G winner at +425 to get some extra bucks.

Now, who else has value to win? I said before that Belgium is undervalued. If they can get past the round of 16, likely against Germany/Spain, they can make a strong run. At +1900 you are certainly getting paid and I think they do have a chance. I also think that side of the bracket could be wide open. You could have France, England, Germany, Belgium and Portugal all on the same side. Could be a EURO championship. On the other side you could have Brazil, Argentina, Dutch and Spain. You know FIFA wants a Brazil/Argentina semi-final!!

There will always be a wild card or two thrown in which is why the World Cup is such a great event.

The other wild card is how these games are officiated and how bad VAR is. VAR was completely new the last WC and I was shocked at how well it was used. However, I have some doubts this time around given the change in the technology. My biggest concern is that we will see a lot of goals overturned because of ridiculous offsides calls. The last WC they were good about only calling offsides when looking at it shoulder to shoulder. Now, with the new tech, they call offsides when a finger nail is ahead of the player. It is going to be very interesting to watch as these calls could affect a lot of games. With FIFA's ridiculous notions of fairness, we also have a lot of officials that do not belong there which always creates issues. Just like this WC should not be in Qatar, there are many officials that do not belong.

Okay, that is enough for now. We are less than a week away, so time to get excited. Please feel free to chime in and ask questions, etc. I will be working on games all week.

Nice write ups , I agree on Japan. They have a chance to catch one of the big boys sleeping and have upset potential. Japan has players like Kamada and Minamino who can create and hurt teams. I don't know why they left Kyogo from Celtic off the roster he was lighting things up not too long ago.

 

[lowell]

Great info.Thanks to both of you.

 

[Crookity]

Thanks for your input. I know very little about soccer. Who are your top 4 teams?

Hi Lowell, this is Bason's thread and I don't want to hijack it, but its nice to have the dialogue. Me and Bason are a bit at odds as he doesn't quite buy in on Argentina, and I don't buy in on Belgium. Personally, I think it is Brazil , and Argentina at #1 and #2. Brazil top to bottom is super strong. They have an absolutely lethal attack, and their defense and mids are something to be reckoned with. Argentina looks good to me, they have won 33 games in a row. Argentina brought some extra defenders with them, they have been playing lockdown lately, and have not conceded much. Age could be a factor as guys like Di Maria and Messi are well into their 30's, and we will see how they carry on as the tourny progresses. I agree with Bason that the dream matchup on the left side of the bracket is a mega showdown of Argentina and Brazil in the semis. After those 2 teams I put Spain, France, Germany, Dutch on a level playing field. One thing to remember is that there is always an implosion. One of the big boys is going to slip up, and get smoked out of the group stages, it happens in all the big tournys. Who will that be is anyone's guess. I think France attack is absolutely deadly with guys like Nkunku and Benzima, but the engine that makes them go is their mid field Kante who is ruled out, as well as Pogba.

I can't wait for the games to begin.

 

[BASON]

It is precisely Belgiums lack of success as to why I give them a chance (Poland is similar but to a different extent). This is the last shot for their best players. It is just a feeling that they play well. History certainly points to it being unlikely but I think they have a shot. I just think Argentina is getting overhyped. It was not that long ago that everyone was pointing the finger at them and asking what is wrong. I agree that they are in better form now, but I just do not think it will be as easy for them as most think.

 

[Crookity]

It is precisely Belgiums lack of success as to why I give them a chance (Poland is similar but to a different extent). This is the last shot for their best players. It is just a feeling that they play well. History certainly points to it being unlikely but I think they have a shot. I just think Argentina is getting overhyped. It was not that long ago that everyone was pointing the finger at them and asking what is wrong. I agree that they are in better form now, but I just do not think it will be as easy for them as most think.

that is why the World Cup is so hard to win. There really is no easy route , and even the big boys have to topple numerous giants to be able to hoist the trophy.

 

[PittsburghKid]

. Poor Costa Rica has no shot in this group. I would be surprised if they score a goal and they are probably the best bet to be the lowest scoring team. .

Which is why i LOVE my bet on them to be lowest scoring team at +800

 

[BASON]

Qatar vs Ecuador

Have to say that I am not very excited by this game. Qatar is definitely the worst team in the tournament and Ecuador is better than most think, so on paper, Ecuador should win this game. However, you have to factor in that Qatar is the host nation which typically will put forth a spirited effort. My guess is Qatar is happy with a draw here. Ecuador should only be happy with a win. I am making a play but this is not a game to bet a lot of money on in my opinion as it could go many different ways. I am making two small bets in this one:

FH Draw -115
Ecuador or Draw and Un 2.5 -123

As some may remember, I like FH draw bets in the opening round of the WC. I like them for two reasons. First, no one wants to lose the first game so this typically affects the style of play in the first game, especially for the teams not predicted to win the group. Teams play not to lose which typically leads to draws. This is particularly true when no third place teams qualify. Second, it you lose the bet, there can be second half opportunities. Now, I will try to post second half plays if I can, but it is not always possible for me and I like to post so people have time to follow, but if I lose the FH bet, I always look for a chance to get my money back in the second half, especially in games where I do not expect a lot of goals.

I like the second bet because I simply think Ecuador is the better team and the likelihood of them losing is small. So rather than betting the draw, I am playing it two ways choosing what I believe to be the better team. I also do not think you will see many games with more than 2.5 goals in the first round. This is a bet you may see a few times.


I will have other plays up as soon as I can. I will likely wait for the US lineup before I post that play because I think it is very important to see who Berhalter chooses to play as this will determine their style. If it were me, I would be seriously aggressive as I think the US is the team with the most talent. They should come out on fire and take it to Wales, but I have serious doubts that this will actually happen.

I also think it is important to watch games and see how they go. Every WC is different and unpredictable so it is best to adapt capping them as the games are played.

Mane is out for the tournament so that definitely plays into how I cap Senegal. It is a shame, because I thought they had a great chance to move on, but it will be difficult without their best player.

I have to say that I am going down a rabbit hole capping many of these games. There are so many options especially when you think many games will be tight and low scoring. I am always trying to find the best value. I will be playing some correct score bets, but likely will not post them since they are tough to hit. Maybe I should just post the score I predict and people can make their own choice. Thoughts?

 

[Snafu]

Thoughts?

i'm sure people following this section of MJ's love to read your write ups. please keep posting as it suits you sir :0008

about picking right score, i used to play correct scores as a 2/8 or so system -> 28 x stake. if you hit two out of 8 you end up with profit (if you get like +500 for correct score). it just takes awfully lot of time to pick the right matches.

Good luck :0074

 

[kickserv]

i'm sure people following this section of MJ's love to read your write ups. please keep posting as it suits you sir :0008

I agree....although not sure how he has any time for write ups, the dude has like 900 plays and the tournament hasn't even started yet:lol:

 

[BASON]

I think you may be referring to Kid, Kick, but appreciate any input. Kid and I have different styles but it has always worked well together. In fact, I think it was two World Cups ago that we got this thing started!!

GO CANADA!!

 

[BASON]

No halftime play. Will pray this ends 2-0, but unlikely. Qatar is terrible. Should have just layed off.

 

[jdg226]

My thoughts exactly. Apparently Qatar didn't pay the ecuadorians enough :0002

 

[BASON]

England vs Iran

I am by no means an England fan as they are always overrated and overpriced. However, they are much better than Iran who is not much better than Qatar. I simply do not think they will lose this game.

England to win to nil -145
England/Dutch/Argentina/France/Denmark +379
England/Argentina/Denmark/France +204

I think they win 1 or 2 nil. I am adding them to some initial square parlays. One with the Dutch and one without as I am not sure what to expect from Senegal so I do not want to risk a lot on that game. Hopefully they win and we have action set up for the next couple days.


Netherlands vs Senegal

As stated above, for now I am only playing this game via the parlay above. I want to limit my first round plays since I simply do not know what to expect from some teams. Senegal is certainly one of those teams. The Dutch should win this game and they are rock solid defensively.


I am going to have to see the USA lineup before I bet that game. If we get Sargent and Ream, I like them. If Berhalter sticks with the MLS players that do not even belong on the team, I do not like them to win, so this play will have to wait until tomorrow afternoon.

 

[kickserv]

GO CANADA!!

x44: