Twelve months ago I wrote "None other than Arnold Palmer issues the invitations for this event and when he issues an invitation, no-one refuses!" After Davis Love, David Duval and Thomas Bjorn has withdrawn, what a difference a year makes! But according to the pros, Bay Hill is in their top five for most enjoyed stops on the PGA Tour. It is unlikely to be repeated again next year.
One player who does keep coming back is John Daly. The Honda Classic last week was the scene of his best tournaments in recent years, Bay Hill is definitely not. It was in 1998 that he famously took 18 on the 6th hole in the final round en route to 85; last year he beat that with 87 in the final round. He didn't play in 1999 as the event fell on a week when he had custody of his daughters, but he is here this week and let's hope he makes it to Sunday!
The course is long at 7,200 yards and tight, having been lengthened in recent years; the course record of 62 dates back to Andy Bean in 1981 and Greg Norman in 1984. The favored shot for this course is a draw, particularly for the front-nine, but players who has done well in this tournament have had good all-round games. Woods, Els and Mickelson have won this tournament in three of the past four years and to highlight the importance of good putting on the large, undulating Bermuda greens, the winners immediately before them were Loren Roberts twice and Ben Crenshaw. Apart from looking for a 'complete' player, other factors to take note of are that Tiger, among others, lives close by, Steve Lowery and Dicky Pride are members of the club and Robert Damron is personal friend of Arnie and grew up on the course.
The three picks this week are Vijay Singh, Mark Calcavecchia and Steve Flesch. Singh has been in the sort of form that could easily secure him another Green Jacket. He has won two of his last four events and finished in the top-3 in the other two. In terms of course experience, he has not missed a year since 1993 and only Tim Herron of this week's field holds a lower 10-year scoring average at Bay Hill. With his putter under control, he very capable of beating Tiger and taking this title with ease.
Calc is another who has benefited from some inspired form with the putter, he would have been the most unlikely of candidates to top the putting average stats until he changed his grips and the effect has been incredible. Recently he has finished 1st, 2nd and 3rd in three of his last four tournaments and if last week is anything to go by, he has also undergone a very successful knee operation. He had been an ever-present at Bay Hill for the past ten years, securing three top-5 finishes along the way, but it is his inspired current form that could carry him to victory. He should have won last week, but right now he is more likely to be spurred on rather than disheartened by his failure to seize his chances on Sunday.
The third pick is Steve Flesch who benefits from a very large price that was certainly warranted until last week. His game had been afflicted by an ability to put four good rounds together all season, but that changed last week when he look very secure in his 7th place finish. He has only played here once before - he finished 18th last year - but can certainly compete with the best of this week's field and could build on last week to push for a place finish at least.
Outright plays:
Vijay Singh to win 16/1 e.w. @
Stanley
Mark Calcavecchia to win 25/1 e.w. @
Surrey
Steve Flesch to win 80/1 e.w. @
Victor Chandler