Bay Hill Invitational

[Stanley]

Course: Bay Hill Club and Lodge, Orlando, Florida
Yardage: 7239
Par: 72 (three par-fives)
USGA Rating: 75.1
Greens: Tifdwarf Bermudagrass - 6,500 sq.ft (Tour average: 6,000 sq.ft)

GCSAA Tournament Fact Sheet

Weather Forecast

Best Players Last 10 Years

Past Winners:
2001 - Tiger Woods
2000 - Tiger Woods
1999 - Tim Herron
1998 - Ernie Els
1997 - Phil Mickelson
1996 - Paul Goydos
1995 - Loren Roberts
1994 - Loren Roberts
1993 - Ben Crenshaw
1992 - Fred Couples

 

[Stanley]

Outright plays (1 unit unless stated):

Vijay Singh to win 14/1 e.w. @ BetInternet (w/o Woods)
Taking Singh in the w/o Woods market simply because of his suspect temperament when in the lead and Tiger does look like he's getting close to his best. Twice a runner-up this event (ominously), he has course form and has looked good this year, being in contention virtually every week. Should be the same again this week.

Bob Estes to win 40/1 e.w. @ Blue Square
Whereas last week was Vijay's first week off since January, Estes has played just five times. He has been in contention each time with the exception of the Phoenix Open and was runner-up here in 1998 and top-5 the following year. Looks rather large odds for someone so consistent.

Paul Azinger to win 66/1 e.w. available generally
Zinger is a former winner of this event and is at his best on tough tracks. He put a poor West Coast Swing behind him with a fine performance in the World Matchplay and was also on contention at Doral where it was a big improvement in his greens hit in regulation that saw him much higher up the leaderboard. More of the same is required this week and while he would be a very surprising winner, he should in contention far more than his price would suggest.

 

[bettingmad]

High 5 Stan???

Got to go with Bob Estes at the 40/1....
Good record in this... 2nd in 98' 5th in 99' and 14th last year. Finished last season very consistently and has started well this year... 10th Mercedes, 5th Buick Invitational, 19th Nissan and last 8 in the Matchplay.

Had to have a saver on Big Ern at the 12/1 with Heathorns.
Won three times this year, including his last 2 outings and a previous winner here.

 

[milpalm]

I agree with you guys on Singh and Estes. Also on Janzen (100/1 WillHill, earlier in the week). He likes tough tracks and has 2 top 10s already this year. 8th place here last year.

 

[rio]

Oh God, I come to sink the ship.

Bob Estes 40/1 Tote. Disappointing if I do not get a good run for my money.

Last chance saloon for Scott ' the bottle' McCarron at 50/1 generally. Like the Nissan I do think this course will suit.

I also like Garcia and was hoping to see some 20's about. Appears 16/1 is the price. Not normally my kind of price but do like his chances.

Good Luck

Rio.

 

[Ian]

Shit - sorry guys - Dr Death here - also backed Estes at 40/1
Also
Damron 140/1 Centrebet
Goydos 150/1 Tote
Beckman 80/1 generally

 

[MrChristo]

Hi guys....love the work that goes on in this thread.

Just a quick question...(No good at this American terminology )

At Olympic Sports, if I bet on someone to 'show', is that the equivalent of a top 4 (or 5) place?

Thanks,
Chris.

 

[Stanley]

MrChristo, yes, the 'show' bet is a place-only bet (top-4).

 

[MrChristo]

Thanks Stanley.

Would you believe the player in question was Estes :shrug:

If he hasn't been cursed yet, he sure has now!

 

[bettingmad]

I hope nobody tells Bob what is expected of him this week..... the pressure could be too much to bear.

Glad I didn't do him win only now Ian's on.... 2nd place cold be useful.... but unfortunately I only have the first 5 and not 6th!!!!

The 40/1 Estes at Bluesq has all gone as has the 12/1 Els at Heathorns (and 11/1 at Hills) ... but there is still some 37/1 and 10/1 at betfair.com - if there is anyone still not using betfair... you are missing out.... it's well worth a look.

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

outrights to show @ Oly 1/2 unit
Olazabal 10/1
Zinger 17.5/1
Hoch 20/1
Janzen/25/1
Will be pulling for the crews consensive pick also.Like Stans play on Singh w/o Woods an awfully lot but not available at my outs.
Have lots of irons in the fire this week and have not got to look @ 72 matches in length yet however with even keel weather projected all rds believe best value may come in rd by rd with wind projected and greens the way they are.Should make afternoon playing tough.

 

[ormond80]

11-4 Year To Date as Faxon beat Weir and Daly last week.
This week 72 holes goes to:

Mickelson -120 over Singh

Happy Gaming

 

[Stanley]

Matchup plays (1 unit unless stated):

Bob Estes to beat Jose Maria Olazabal -118 @ Centrebet
Olly would be a popular winner this week, but I just don't see it myself. For all that he has finished in the top-10 in his last three PGA Tour events, won the Buick Invitational and was a quarter-finalist in the World Matchplay, his stats are very poor. He ranked 25th in driving accuracy in the Nissan Open when finishing 9th, but in his other three events he has ranked 67th, 63rd and 77th (when winning the Buick Invitational) out of just the weekend qualifiers. In other words, basically last in driving accuracy. He has yet to finish in the top-10 in greens in regulation in any event and has done so only once in putting. In fact, from his tournament stats it is very hard to see how he scored so well. Driving accuracy will be at a premium this week and on a tougher course than in recent weeks, I expect Olly to find scoring a great deal more difficult. To oppose him with an outright selection is therefore automatic.

Justin Leonard to beat Jose Maria Olazabal +110 @ Olympic or Moneyplays
Also opposing him with Leonard at a nice price. Not a great record at Bay Hill, but far more accurate off the tee and should secure a safe top-30 position.

Davis Love to beat Jose Maria Olazabal -111 @ Ladbrokes or BetInternet
Definitely going with course form here. Love has been erratic this year, but that is his nature and on a course on which he has been runner-up three times, he could win this event with ease. A Thursday morning tee-time will help him get 'in' the tournament as he is not one for chasing lost ground.

Lee Janzen to beat Niclas Fasth -140 @ WSEX
Going with course experience and the big improvement to a top-10 finish from Janzen last year. At his best on tough tracks, he looks good for a top-25 finish. Continue to be impressed by Fasth, but this is only a warm-up event for the TPC and Masters and he should be tired: in the past month he has played in Australia, California and Dubai.

Tom Lehman to beat Lee Westwood -111 @ Ladbrokes [2 units]
Was very surprised at Westwood's 15th place finish in the Nissan Open and he also won a couple of matches in the World Matchplay, but this is too soon to say if this is the return of his former self. Against a player with an impressive record on this course, including being runner-up three years ago and has had a solid season so far, I will side with Lehman.

 

[bettingmad]

Trying a GCS matchup... Roberts +120 over Allenby.

Allenby is a player I like a lot but has not done much lately (usually wins when I least expect it!) Roberts has two course wins (plus good places) and finished runner-up for me last time out when 50/1 at Tucson.

 

[Clive]

I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but my selection this week is...

Bob Estes 40/1

The only week of the year when golf betting takes a back stage, so won't go too mad, but also backed Paul Goydos at 125/1 with Chandler.

Have backed a few other long priced players to small stakes, but none that I would admit to!

 

[Monarch]

Final Selections:

Final Selections:

Garcia 14/1 @ Spodds
Mickelson 16/1 @ UK
Goosen 33/1 @ Ladbrokes - All 1 Unit ew.

Soo much quality this week it surely has to produce a short price winner. Garcia is tough to predict and can only hope he is thinking of golf instead of Monica this week. Mickelson looks like he might have shrugged off his slump and comes to a course where he knows how to play well. Finally, Goosen has yet to shine on the PGA Tour and I'm anticipating a good sustained performance after warming up over the last couple of events. Should be a great event with Woods gunning for that hat-trick. If all this theory goes wrong, good luck to all and everyone on RoboPro.

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

1st rounders
Funk -110 over Perry @ 5Dimes
Cink -110 over Sutherland @ 5dimes
Mediate +100 over Kendall @ Moneyplays
Lewis +110 over Edwards @ Moneyplays
McCarron +110 over Estes

With exception of Lewis(1st out in 2man) and Edwards all are morning tee vs noon. Not sold on Funk on this track but despite Kenny's ball striking remaining intact his scoring has deteriorated since hitting bermuda greens.Has always struggled on fast greens. Will see how these fair. Looked mainly for early vs late and and fades vs draws on this track.

 

[Monarch]

1st Rd 3 balls:

1st Rd 3 balls:

Chamblee - Hulbert - J Smith 5/4 @ UK - 1 Unit.

Faxon - Cink - O'Meara 6/5 @ Hills - 1 Unit.

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

72 holes @ Oly
Lewis +140 over Edwards

I am confused at this line.Both have played 6 tourneys this year and Lewis has doubled Edwards in earnings,has better scoring ave,better in all around stats.Both have had 2 appearances here before (2000 & 2001)Lewis beats him both times. I'll take the +140 and like it if I lose.

 

[Cartman88]

Outright plays for this week:

Phil Mickelson each way 16-1
David Duval each way 25-1
Charles Howell each way 50-1