BIG Boxing weekend ahead 05/04 - 05/06

Shawn89

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Sportsbook has Huck @ +185 :eek:

I asked during live chat and they said it wasn't a line error.
 

LordoftheLunch

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not love, that would be too much of a premature jinx, like premature ejac... :mj07:

i like it

huck coming down in weight, afolabi's conditioning up, stronger

huck took the fight quick

lordofthelunch, what do you think about cotto-may draw?

Like the draw, fight ends MD as value bets, fight to go the distance at -120 or F by dec/Td -110 as the most likely outcone at a fair price.
Cotto can make this fight a close one (not say'n he will) but he bg money is with F. so I think he will get the nod.

Regarding a late stoppage, having in mind they use the "less hard hitting" gloves I think that isnt totally out, but unlikely.
:toast:
 

fastfrank

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Mayweather/Cotto points hadicap props....

Mayweather/Cotto points hadicap props....

So 5Dimes has Cotto +23.5-165, which begs the question can Cotto win 5 rounds out of 12? Not taking knock downs into account, if May wins 7 rounds @ 10 points each, and loses 5 rounds @ 9 points we get 115 X 3=345. Cotto wins 5 rounds @ 10 points, loses 7 @ 9 points we get 113 X 3=339. 339+23.5=362.5 to May's 345. Now if Floyd wins 8 rounds it would be 116 to 112 x 3 plus the Cotto handicap. So if my math isn't screwy if Cotto wins just 4 of the 12 rounds, he wins this play. I think its a good play. Of course knock downs are possible, but we have to start somewhere. Also this scenario assumes all 3 judges scorecards are identical, another variable.
 

BOXLOCKS

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So 5Dimes has Cotto +23.5-165, which begs the question can Cotto win 5 rounds out of 12? Not taking knock downs into account, if May wins 7 rounds @ 10 points each, and loses 5 rounds @ 9 points we get 115 X 3=345. Cotto wins 5 rounds @ 10 points, loses 7 @ 9 points we get 113 X 3=339. 339+23.5=362.5 to May's 345. Now if Floyd wins 8 rounds it would be 116 to 112 x 3 plus the Cotto handicap. So if my math isn't screwy if Cotto wins just 4 of the 12 rounds, he wins this play. I think its a good play. Of course knock downs are possible, but we have to start somewhere. Also this scenario assumes all 3 judges scorecards are identical, another variable.

Cotton only needs to win 3 rounds to cover that spread. 117-111 on all 3 cards is an 18 point difference. If he only wins 2 rounds its 118-110 which is a 24 point difference
 

fastfrank

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Correct. I want a little cushion to account for a knock down, point deduction, or some other situation I did not anticipate. Cotto if memory serves, has been known to land some shots south of the border. Also, we have to consider divergent scoring by the 3 judges. So, what do you think? Can Cotto win 3, maybe 4 rounds minimum?
 

Habecki

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Start the weekend off right...

Yordan over Villaneuva at even to -110

Watching footage of Villaneuva is an eye opening experience. He is really sloppy/wild in there. Yes he does seem to have good strength and pop but his level of opposition has been quite soft so hard to judge how much power. But his technique is horrible and he falls in after slinging in his telegraphed power left hooks. Also some questions about his stamina as he just loads up on his wild power shots and does seem to get even sloppier after just a few rounds. Doesn't have a good jab to set up his power shots etc. etc. Keeps up a guard when he's not throwing but as you can envision wide open for counters.

To be honest I'm not even sure if Villaneuva holds the power edge as Yordan has decent pop of his own. And his shots are far more refined and he can hit with both hands. imo he is clearly in another class. Despite being 2 years younger has more ring experience having been in with legitimate top 10 guys in Robert Guerrero (no contest, stopped due to a cut after 2 rounds), Cabbalero (lopsided beating but was at least game for all 12 rounds) and most recently was in with fellow Indonesian Chris John.

I'm baffled by the line, Yordan appears to be a fringe contender perhaps still on the rise and getting better while Villaneuva is just a wild man with a padded record. This is a big step up in class for Villaneuva and he clearly lacks the tools to cope. He'll come in swinging for the fences and I don't discount something connecting but the odds are way off here.

Yordan to win BIG BET. Thinking about under rounds as well. All depends on how durable Villaneuva is, he looks like a sturdy type but you can never tell how he'll react to being hit consistently with power for the first time. Of course the under rounds could also serve as a slight hedge to the upset. Anyways I'll guess Yordan wins by stoppage in the middle to later rounds.
 
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Habecki

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Not sure why the location helps Villaneuva. Further to that this is Villaneuva's first fight outside the Philippines while Yordan is well traveled at this stage of his career.
 

LordoftheLunch

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Cotton only needs to win 3 rounds to cover that spread. 117-111 on all 3 cards is an 18 point difference. If he only wins 2 rounds its 118-110 which is a 24 point difference

Hi Box, what is your take on this fight? (If you made your mind yet)

:toast:
 

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Correct. I want a little cushion to account for a knock down, point deduction, or some other situation I did not anticipate. Cotto if memory serves, has been known to land some shots south of the border. Also, we have to consider divergent scoring by the 3 judges. So, what do you think? Can Cotto win 3, maybe 4 rounds minimum?

Considering that Cotto only needs to win 2 rounds on two scorecards and 3 rounds on the other, I think he will cover the spread. However, winning the bet is contingent on Cotto making it to the final bell and I'm not positive he will do that. Cotto has been stopped twice from accumulative damage, if Pac & Marg can do it, Mayweather can as well. And remember Corely had Cotto doing the Judah dance after landing a sharp counter punch. Took Cotto a couple minutes to recover from that punch, but Corely chose to showoff for the crowd instead of sealing the deal. Floyd is a great counter puncher, and he wouldn't make that mistake
 

BOXLOCKS

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Hi Box, what is your take on this fight? (If you made your mind yet)

:toast:

Mayweather wins by wide decision or late round stoppage in my opinion

Mayweather's unreal defense has allowed him to stay at the top of his game this late in his career (much like Hopkins). Cotto on the other hand has taken alot of punishment over the years and I don't think he's the same fighter he once was. Having said that, even Cotto in his prime would have problems with Floyd's handspeed, and I think that combined with Floyd's superior defense will be the difference in this fight...same as every other Floyd fight

I've got Mayweather as the closer of several parlays, and included him in several more that end with Kahn in two weeks. Those are my final plays on this fight...good luck gents
 
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UT-Longhorn

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Mayweather wins by wide decision or late round stoppage in my opinion

Mayweather's unreal defense has allowed him to stay at the top of his game this late in his career (much like Hopkins). Cotto on the other hand has taken alot of punishment over the years and I don't think he's the same fighter he once was. Having said that, even Cotto in his prime would have problems with Floyd's handspeed, and I think that combined with Floyd's superior defense will be the difference in this fight...same as every other Floyd fight

I've got Mayweather as the closer of several parlays, and included him in several more that end with Kahn in two weeks. Those are my final plays on this fight...good luck gents


Thx box for your insight
 
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