Weekend plays
Weekend plays
Mixing it up with many mid-range plays this weekend:
Parlay - J.Ruiz, G.Groves, G.Rigondeaux (-150) - medium
All solid favorites. Ruiz should be able to outpoint Ler at home who, while durable, has become something of a sparring partner. Groves seems to be a level above Anderson. Rigondeaux with an ambitious shot at title in just seventh fight, but we know his vast amateur experience accounts for a lot. Line straight up is a bit too high for me, but I think he does everything a bit better than Cordoba. Cordoba with a good career, but I think that Dunne shocker has left some scars. I like the Rig W12 prop @ +242 which has dropped some now.
Ruiz-Roque Ler OVER 8.5 (-110) - medium
Line has moved on this one. Ler has proven himself durable, and I think a wide points win for Ruiz is the most likely result here. Ruiz W12 prop at +155 may be worth a shot too, but I prefer the 8.5, which isn't so deep.
G. Davies (+150) - medium
Playing the sense that Davies will pull off this minor upset. I like the plus odds in what I consider a toss-up. Watched a good bit of video. Hall the better pure boxer, but I think Davies is much tougher, and when push comes to shove, will want it more. Even considering the form line, Davies fight with Napa could've gone either way, while Hall was starting to take a beating before Napa mysteriously conceded. The final results against Napa are misleading. I actually think Davies may get the skinny Hall out of there.
Pacquiao-Margarito OVER 9.5 (+130) - medium
I think this is going the distance. Not in Pac's nature to play it safe, but I think he will have unusual respect for Marg's size and strength. Barring the Mosley result, Marg's beard has always been ultra-solid. Speed does kill though, and there is the chance that Pac's quickness will do to Marg what Mosley's did. My sense though, is that Pac will win a tough 12 round decision.
Groves-Anderson UNDER 7.5 (+115) - small
Groves can pop, and I think there is a gulf in class here. Anderson untested and I think Groves will go after him.
D. Corley (+500) - tiny Upset play of the weekend. Don't think it will happen, with fight in Fedchenko's hometown, but I like the risk/reward ratio here. Fed isn't that good, and if the Corley that gave Maidana all he could handle shows up, then it could well happen.
I still may not be done... Looking over another thing or two.
Good luck fellas!!!