Boxing 12/1 - 12/2

[BOXLOCKS]

YTD Total: +8.85 units
1 unit plays: 9-4 even
1/2 unit plays: 82-34 +0.75
Dogs: 54-85 +8.10



12/2

Lacy over Tsypko -225...lay 1.1 to win .50 (winner)

Sturm-Topp Under 8.5 -120...lay .30 to win .25 (winner)

Dog

Carrera over Castillejo +500...lay .10 to win .50 (winner)


Parlay

Asloum over Lozano -1050 (w)
Sturm over Topp -3500 (w)
Wright over Quartey -900 (w)
Taylor over Ouma -700.............(-230)...lay .55 to win .25


gl bl

 

[s_dooley24]

Box can I get your thoughts on a Wright/Taylor parlay? Looks like it would be about -340. Thanks.

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Adding


Lacy over Tsypko -225...lay 1.1 to win .50


gl bl

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Box can I get your thoughts on a Wright/Taylor parlay? Looks like it would be about -340. Thanks.

I'll get back to you on that

gl bl

 

[gardenweasel]

maybe i`ve lost my mind....but i just unloaded on lacy at -238 and -265.......

this isn`t calzaghe he`s fighting.....this is tsypko...and it`s in florida(lacy`s home state)....not london or cardiff.....

tsypko is also a tall lefty....but,he doesn`t punch like calzaghe...isn`t the clever technician that calzaghe is.....

he may be able to learn something from the calzaghe fight..regardless,my opinion is that trypko isn`t strong enough...or clever enough....or quick enough....

and i can`t get that first fight out of my mind....lacy was crushing tsypko.....before the cut...

maybe the fight was to short.....maybe tsypko would have turned it around...but i seriously doubt it....he was in serious trouble...

this is lacy`s home state..this is lacy`s career on the line....this fight wasn`t made with the intent of ending lacy`s career...because if he loses,he`s toast....that`s it.....he loses to a fringe contender in his hometown,finis....


imo,lacy froze vs calzaghe....it`s awfully tough fighting a calzaghe or a hatton in the isles...i don`t care who you are.....

imo,tsypko`s a stiff,stand-up, typical european fighter...who was taking a serious beating at the time of the butt in the first fight....

unless lacy`s been mentally destroyed by the calzaghe loss,i see this as a smart move by his team to restore his confidence......

birmingham and shaw got cocky with lacy...thought they could go to possibly the toughest home-court in the world and beat a multi-dimensional undefeated champ in his backyard....they believed all the talk that calzaghe was done because he was fighting so many soft touches.....

well,joe got up for the mega-fight....and lacy froze....it happens...

lacy dominated in the first,albeit short go-round....he was way to strong and actually to quick for tsypko....he has home court.....and i`d expect,something to prove.....it`s like he`s fallen off the end of the world...i wasn`t even aware of this fight.....no buzz......


wish i hadn`t put a little on the over 9.5 in winky/quartey...right now,that looks like a horrible idea after seeing this line...wish i could get it back and throw it on lacy...

maybe i`m missing something...maybe i haven`t been paying attention.....but,unless i`m missing something,or getting prematurely senile,i think it`s a bad line....an overreaction to calzaghe....

**no consequential damages can be sought against gardenweasel, as this is a voluntary association of individuals developed freely to create various open ideas and opinions on boxing wagering by pseudo handicappers and other various gambling degenerates....this information is being given to you gratuitously and thus there is no agreement or understanding between you and gardenweasel regarding your use or modification of this information**

:yup

 

[s_dooley24]

Got on board with Lacy -275, could've had -249 earlier in the day. Was bored so played with some dif parlay combos...Lacy/margarito/wright/taylor would pay about 1.25 to 1 maybe going to play that through the local as not to tie up real (tongue-in-cheek) cash for 10 days.

 

[amhlilhaus]

I'm on wright by decision -179. also took wright over, cotto?!, and lacy in a parley for +140.

 

[frank s.]

OK, what's with the disclaimer? Are you serious? However, I do appreciate your Lacy analysis. I did'nt see the fight with Tspyko, so I take you on your word. I did see Lacy get completely OWNED by Joe. It was pitiful. I think Lacy thought he could intimidate Joe. What a f**king joke! Therefore, I shall run with the Lacy play. If I take it in the shorts, it will make up for the beat play I posted, and you bet some months back. I believe it was Kimbrough who tanked. Peace out.

 

[gardenweasel]

if "both" lacy tanks/and the wright-quartey over goes south,i really wouldn`t need the disclaimer.....

`cause within the week i`ll be selling peanuts out of my new one room "deluxe" hut in trinidad......

 

[Hellephant]

Magarito vs Clottey

Margarito is a limited brawler, but, he is a good limited brawler. Clottey will have some early success with his left hook combinations, but he will soon tire and start clinching. He might survive the fight, but he won't win it.

I play Margarito, and I play it big.

 

[Hellephant]

and i can`t get that first fight out of my mind....lacy was crushing tsypko.....before the cut...

The cut occurred late in the first round, not much had happened, it was a close round. In the second round Lacy did come on a little, but he did nothing close to "crushing tsypko". You better get that fight out of your mind.
Tsypko is really pale, hell I even think he got a gift versus Brian Magee. So Lacy should win. But he will perform like shit, and the fight will be a poor display of boxing. Kind of a crappy card actually. Everybody will tune in SHOWTIME.

 

[gardenweasel]

don`t know where you`re going with the "pale" comment....

but,i agree with the sentiment that showtime has the more interesting card.....

lacy?...apparently,you aren`t alone in the belief that lacy was an overrated guy...the odds reflect that fact...

regarding the first fight...we both know that lacy was going to stop tsypko..the cut was merciful.......he was badly rocked in the second.....it was a matter of time...of course,that doesn`t mean that this one will play out the same way....

..i can`t gauge a guy`s mentality.......all i can do is look at the facts..and they are that tsypko has only fought 3 times outside of russia or germany...

1)he stopped a guy that had lost his last 7 fights(5 by stoppage) in denmark...

2)he fought the "no decision" with lacy(a bad beating if allowed to continue,imo)...

3)he lost a unanimous decision to chanet in france...chanet who was then brutally k.o.`ed by myrktchyan......

and many think he lost to chinny brian magee at home(as you indicated)...

they aren`t fighting in wales,germany or even france....they`re fighting in lacy`s backyard....

lacy`s been ignored...dissed...disregarded...insulted...and he`s trained with maybe the most savvy,slick,tough lefty drawing breath..along with calzaghe(winky)....

imo,lacy`s people became intoxicated with lacy`s dominance...and made the mistake fighting a great fighter in the toughest venue, possibly,in boxing....

and he froze....

i wish calzaghe would give lacy a rematch..in the states....we know how important venue is,don`t we...take it from ricky hatton...who was fortunate to get a decision vs luis collazo in the states....very fortunate....at m.e.n. arena,it wouldn`t have been close....

that`s how important a home court can be...

lacy`s career hangs in the balance.....granted,there is pressure...

but,as i said,this ain`t london...and this ain`t calzaghe...

maybe lacy`s become a jellyfish after one loss...maybe he`s david reid reincarnated....

he may well be....but,he has to many factors working in his favor in this fight....i hope there are no butts...

all i can do is analyze it,and make a call....maybe i`ll get buggered...

i have a fresh jar of vaseline in the cupboard...and a tube of k.y. as back-up....

g.l. on margarito...should be an action fight...

 

[Hellephant]

I only dispute that Lacy was "crushing tsypko" in their first fight. I don't see that. The fight only lasted two rounds, and it was competitive.
Now, I believe Lacy will win tomorrow, because Tsypko should be harmless. But Lacy had problems with Sheika and Williams, and now, when he knows he's not invincible anymore, who knows what will happen if trouble appears?

 

[gardenweasel]

i actually thought the sheika scoring was appalling...all he did was clinch....

but,we`ll see....i am not looking forward to being a peanut vendor in the west indies....:nono:

 

[The Sponge]

Box can I get your thoughts on a Wright/Taylor parlay? Looks like it would be about -340. Thanks.

For what its worth I cant see how you can lose that bet bud

 

[lvlarc_uk]

Hatton was not lucky to get the decision against Collazo. At worst he lost 6 rounds, include the 10-8 round and he won by a point or two. There was no luck involved with the 115-112, 115-112, and 114-113 scorecards.

Btw, Calzaghe would have beaten Lacy just as convincingly had it been in American, they are just a class apart and Calzaghe has always been underrated by yanks. A rematch would just be cruel.

I like Lacy/Cotto/Margarito parlay +160
Lacy under 9.5 +160

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Adding


Sturm-Topp Under 8.5 -120...lay .30 to win .25



gl bl

 

[gardenweasel]

Hatton was not lucky to get the decision against Collazo. At worst he lost 6 rounds, include the 10-8 round and he won by a point or two. There was no luck involved with the 115-112, 115-112, and 114-113 scorecards.

Btw, Calzaghe would have beaten Lacy just as convincingly had it been in American, they are just a class apart and Calzaghe has always been underrated by yanks. A rematch would just be cruel.

I like Lacy/Cotto/Margarito parlay +160
Lacy under 9.5 +160

not underrated here.......i like calzaghe,too...alot..but,we`ll never know about calzaghe away from home....and his resume is weak with a caital "w"......theres a reason that he`s been dogged about his level of competition..even in the isles....and his penchant for never fighting away from home.... he`s never fought a meaningful fight outside of the isles....
and don`t give me will mcintyre or mario veit(who he previously stopped in one round)....they`re both fringe guys...i don`t care about their records....

calzaghe would NEVER have fought lacy in the states.....NEVER......that fight never gets made...

a stupid move by lacy..it took balls to take that fight in britain...but,very stupid....

.and,imo,the reticence to leave the isles will forever taint calzaghe...because none of the solid contenders are stupid enough to go into joe`s backyard....

why do you think theres never been a calzaghe/hopkins fight?.....calzaghe/tarver....why won`t there ever be a calzaghe/kessler fight anywhere but the isles?....

because joe won`t go...

i give hatton credit for leaving home...but,it will be his undoing......mark my words...

calzaghe `s better than hatton,imo,,,,,but hatton has bigger stones...and that will be his undoing...

we`re talking luis collazo here... no pfp guy...and hatton was balls to the wall to win...imo,he wins comfortably in front of the homies....

i think calzaghe`s a damned good fighter....but,he`ll never fight a "real" guy anywhere but home...

hell,paul spadafora`s unbeaten in pittsburgh...lol

look,i really like calzaghe as a fighter...but,he`s missed out(or avoided) most of the big names throughout his career because he`s afraid to leave the isles..

dlh moved up in weight looking for big fights....hopkins....trinidad...mosley.... move up to lt heavy...theres an old tarver he can beat...adamek would be interesting...

come to vegas....fight a mega-fight....broaden your horizons...

now peter manfredo?....that`s pathetic(as was lacy fighting pemberton)......wasn`t he supposed to fight some german named steiglitz?...

i can`t believe i`m arguing against calzaghe..i really like the guy......but,other than lacy in his backyard,he has NO CAREER DEFINING FIGHTS....

.sorry if that pisses you off...that`s just a fact...

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Adding


Parlay

Wright over Quartey -900
Asloum over Lozano -1050
Sturm over Topp -3500
Taylor over Ouma -700......(-230)...lay .55 to win .25


gl bl

 

[gardenweasel]

and let me clarify.......i REALLY like calzaghe......i think he`s a well-rounded,top drawer boxer puncher.....who could have done much more with his career....

and several of the brits and welshmen that i correspond with basically agree.....

let me reiterate....calzaghe is top notch...a superior talent...a lefty...tall, does EVERYTHING very well....

no doubt,a pfp guy...

after re-reading my prior post,i think i may have not emphasized my respect and admiration for calzaghe...