Boxing; 3/01/2008; Vazquez-Marquez; Carson, CA.

[MayorgaFan]

........

........

I think Marquez's boxing ability if being overratd a bit. He has good skills but he's always gotten hit clean a good bit. His defense has never been real good. Rafael is not a solid enough boxer to outbox Vasquez without putting some hurt on him IMO.

 

[BOXLOCKS]

lol...there`s sonny......now where the hell is joey odessa?....he could pop in every frickin` leap year and say "hello".....

unless he still has a hair stuck up his ass the size of the louisiana purchase over the old castillo/corrales I shinkick(which was profusely apologized for,i might add)...

i had my sack nailed to the park bench for being a schmuck... honestly, i was suffering from a level 5 hard cheese impaction at the time and wasn`t responsible for my ugly demeanor.....

joey,we have a nice little group going here...and i know i luv` ya`...

i hope this was a moving display of sincerity,humility and contrition....

I could be wrong but I believe the arguement that pissed him off was about "purposely" betting into an "obvious" bad line. I won't elaborate as we don't need to open that can of worms again


gl bl

 

[gardenweasel]

I could be wrong but I believe the arguement that pissed him off was about "purposely" betting into an "obvious" bad line. I won't elaborate as we don't need to open that can of worms again


gl bl

good..that means i`m off the hook....i`ve always felt guilty that my tantrum drove the premier boxing/mma linesmaker on the net(probably drawing breath) away from his periodic madjacks visits....

it ain`t easy periodically felating a guy trying to make nice after acting like an asshat...and i like joey...i think we all do...

my thinking was that we have quite a few newer handicappers on this site and it seems like interest is growing in boxing and mma....

i figured joey would see it as a smart move to stop by and throw us a bone every now again...good for business..but even moreso good for the game for him to be somewhat accesible...let guys hear from him....


o.k.....i said my piece....thanks for that,b.l...

 

[nj]

Unique take by Sparks:

My prediction: Marquez by late-fight TKO. I think Marquez will be sharper than his last fight, when I (and fellow 122-pounder Daniel Ponce De Leon) believe that Marquez did not train as hard as he should have. He knows he made a lot of mistakes. My bet is that Marquez is growing into his size a little better now that he?s been at the weight for about a year, and his better skills mean he will be more judicious and better-adjusted to Vazquez? own improved technique. Eventually, he will hurt or cut Vazquez, as he has several times over the series, bad enough that the referee or corner will call a halt to matters. And while Vazquez? has the doctor?s clearance to fight Saturday, the doc said there is some chance of him getting cut again.

Confidence: 55%

---

hmm

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Check out the scar tissue around Vasquez' eyes, looks like they could open up at any time.

Motivation is a very big issue in this fight. In the 2nd fight, Marq was overconfident and Vasq was on a mission for revenge. In this fight, the roles are reversed with Vasq thinking he is the better guy and could stop Marq at any time. Marq coming off a legitimate stoppage loss to Vasq now has something to prove himself and revenge on his mind. Based on this theory I think Marquez is more motivated, and the stoppage loss will keep him from trading so much. However, regardless of motivation I don't see Vasq giving Marq enough room to get comfortable and work his magic. Vasq already said he will be in Marq chest the entire night, so Marq game plan really doesn't matter.


We can go back and forth on motivation and strategy all night, but I really think this fight will come down to two things...1) Marq chin vs Vasq power...2) Marq slashing blows vs Vasq scar tissue around the eyes. This fight could be headed in one direction and then do a complete 180 based on those factors, making the side of this fight completely unbettable imo.

These guys have equal power imo, Marq the sharper puncher and Vasq the stronger guy. The big difference here is that when Vasq gets wobbled, he bounces right back and shows no residual damage lingering throughout the fight. When Marq gets hurt, he needs time to recoop and it seems to take alot out of his stamina. Huge advantage for Vasq in that respect, and thats why I can't play Marq in this fight. At the same time, Vasq eyes could start bleeding in the 1st round, making it impossible to lay the juice

I have Marq 12rd dec +780 and Vasq 12rd dec +750, but I played those as hedges to Fight Won't Go Distance which I will play before tomarrow night. Based on the above posted material, I just can't see this fight going the distance. If I'm wrong I'll win a little back with the hedges, but the profits will be riding on the fight not going the full 12 rounds


gl bl

 

[gardenweasel]

Check out the scar tissue around Vasquez' eyes, looks like they could open up at any time.

Motivation is a very big issue in this fight. In the 2nd fight, Marq was overconfident and Vasq was on a mission for revenge. In this fight, the roles are reversed with Vasq thinking he is the better guy and could stop Marq at any time. Marq coming off a legitimate stoppage loss to Vasq now has something to prove himself and revenge on his mind. Based on this theory I think Marquez is more motivated, and the stoppage loss will keep him from trading so much. However, regardless of motivation I don't see Vasq giving Marq enough room to get comfortable and work his magic. Vasq already said he will be in Marq chest the entire night, so Marq game plan really doesn't matter.


We can go back and forth on motivation and strategy all night, but I really think this fight will come down to two things...1) Marq chin vs Vasq power...2) Marq slashing blows vs Vasq scar tissue around the eyes. This fight could be headed in one direction and then do a complete 180 based on those factors, making the side of this fight completely unbettable imo.

These guys have equal power imo, Marq the sharper puncher and Vasq the stronger guy. The big difference here is that when Vasq gets wobbled, he bounces right back and shows no residual damage lingering throughout the fight. When Marq gets hurt, he needs time to recoop and it seems to take alot out of his stamina. Huge advantage for Vasq in that respect, and thats why I can't play Marq in this fight. At the same time, Vasq eyes could start bleeding in the 1st round, making it impossible to lay the juice

I have Marq 12rd dec +780 and Vasq 12rd dec +750, but I played those as hedges to Fight Won't Go Distance which I will play before tomarrow night. Based on the above posted material, I just can't see this fight going the distance. If I'm wrong I'll win a little back with the hedges, but the profits will be riding on the fight not going the full 12 rounds"....


and those cuts weren`t superficial...they were deep and right on the eyelids....both of em...

ain`t it great to have a primo fight like this that can go either way?...can end in so many different ways....

i wonder,if this is another just like 1 & 2,what will be left of both guys after this trilogy....

btw...this walker.echols fight is pretty interesting...

a few years ago,echols crushes this guy....walker seems slow....

...but now,echols is a shell....his power seems to have left him....

good fight...

 

[nj]

Yuck. lost the under by about 1 minute.
I feel horrible for Litzau, he seems like a good kid, it's hard to watch him get punished like that.


Tough night. Very small profit, I see it as a loss b/c of time invested.

 

[frank s.]

Well, a bud of mine likes Marquez, and draw a little. I'm sitting here in Huntington Beach waiting for the fight tommorow and I still haven't made a bet. Jeez! I'll just sleep on it and hope and answer comes. I just ain't sure. The suspene is torture.

 

[Romi]

Well, a bud of mine likes Marquez, and draw a little. I'm sitting here in Huntington Beach waiting for the fight tommorow and I still haven't made a bet. Jeez! I'll just sleep on it and hope and answer comes. I just ain't sure. The suspene is torture.

This fight is a pic em IMHO. I really dont see value on either guy. It should end b4 12 so I might just put dough on both inside. Vas inside is nearly even and Mar inside is +300. Translates to a free bet on Mar, unless this somehow goes 12. It's a great matchup in what could end up being one of the great trilogies. You are a lucky bastard to just be there. Enjoy the fight!

 

[frank s.]

I am leaning toward the OVER 7.5 as of right now. And I do not feel these guys are equal in the punching power dept. Vazquez hits like a freaking mule. What I am seeing are cuts opening up. Marquez is a sharpshooter. Marquez +23.5 looks good also.

 

[The Sponge]

Well, if it's a coin toss, why not take the odds with Marquez is right. I would LOVE to do that with some small degree of confidence. As of now I am reaching for straws. Really just can't get a read. If this forum doesn't chime in a help a brother out, I am going to have to maybe put out a few contracts around here!!!

I see almost everyone has the same opinion as me so is their any chance you can call off the contracts? I haven't slept since you posted that.:scared

 

[frank s.]

All is forgiven! I give everyone a pass.

 

[badjab]

Check out the scar tissue around Vasquez' eyes, looks like they could open up at any time.

Wow...those eyes are like ripe peaches. :scared
I played Marquez at +160 last week, and a little on the over 7.5, but I tend to agree with the overall sentiment that this could play out in almost any possible way by either fighter (KO, stoppage on cuts, decision, draw?) and no one would be too surprised.

 

[Romi]

This fight has been analysed every which way. The majority agree on Mar being the better tech, Vas the stonger guy, better chin etc etc. Just want to get an opinion on these wagers. Vas and Mar inside wagers would both be placed as hedges

1-fight ends inside the dst -265

2-vas ends inside @ even

3-mar ends inside +300

I can wager 530 to win 2 hund on fight ends inside.

Or I can take 500 and wager 3 hund on Vas inside and 2 hund on mar inside.

1st scenario wins 2 hund

2nd scenario wins 1 hund net

3rd scenario wins 3 hund net

Obviously the fight going dst loses. I think those chances are kind of slim. Appreciate any thoughts.

 

[nj]

Slightly off-topic here, but can someone clarify the rulebook on this:

Won't go the distance

Marq by KO
Vasq by KO

If the fight is stopped early on a butt and goes to the scorecards, the KOs lose I assume. But what happens with the distance bet?

Is there any functional difference in the interpretation of distance/not distance and both fighters by KO?

Im playing these tonight.

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Slightly off-topic here, but can someone clarify the rulebook on this:

Won't go the distance

Marq by KO
Vasq by KO

If the fight is stopped early on a butt and goes to the scorecards, the KOs lose I assume. But what happens with the distance bet?

Is there any functional difference in the interpretation of distance/not distance and both fighters by KO?

Im playing these tonight.

Depends on where you play, 5dimes calls it Inside Distance and that includes technical decisions. All other books call it KO,TKO,DQ and that does not include technical decisions. So you have to be very carefull about that when hedging

gl bl

 

[BOXLOCKS]

This fight has been analysed every which way. The majority agree on Mar being the better tech, Vas the stonger guy, better chin etc etc. Just want to get an opinion on these wagers. Vas and Mar inside wagers would both be placed as hedges

1-fight ends inside the dst -265

2-vas ends inside @ even

3-mar ends inside +300

I can wager 530 to win 2 hund on fight ends inside.

Or I can take 500 and wager 3 hund on Vas inside and 2 hund on mar inside.

1st scenario wins 2 hund

2nd scenario wins 1 hund net

3rd scenario wins 3 hund net

Obviously the fight going dst loses. I think those chances are kind of slim. Appreciate any thoughts.

The first option is probably better as Vasquez inside distance is the most likely outcome and you'd be winning 200 instead of 100 if that scenario plays out. Risking 500 to win 100 hundred might not be worth it, just my opinion

gl bl

 

[nj]

Thanks bl, that will save my butt one day. Though if Marq wins by tech. dec. im in a huge pile of crap. Hopefully the inevitable Vasq cut is caused by a punch!

I agree Vasq KO is more likely, not a good idea to have the majority of profits coming from Marq KO. I bet them to be even profits inside the distance.

 

[Romi]

Depends on where you play, 5dimes calls it Inside Distance and that includes technical decisions. All other books call it KO,TKO,DQ and that does not include technical decisions. So you have to be very carefull about that when hedging

gl bl

That was the main consideration not hedging both fighters by ko. If there is a butt and it goes to the cards, then those wagers lose.

A couple yrs ago I had both Toney and Rahman by dec for a pretty decnt amt. As the fight progressed, I thought I couldn't lose until it dawned on me that it could possibly be a draw....murphys law applied in that situation. I lost both wagers. Moot pt but i thought Rock clearly won.

 

[tonymontana]

I played Marquez inside at 330. 300 to win a 1000 seems like a fair shot to me.
My man has Marquez straight and he is 2 to 0 in the Marquez vs Vasquez history and goes for the hattrick.
Good luck to anybody.