Weekend Review:
1. Under Bets were the golden road this weekend. Soto, Montiel, Burns, and Ragosina. All at home against over-matched opponents. Burns and Soto fighting veterans with no legs, Montiel fighting a youngster in way over his head. Ragosina, as most of us believed, was as close to a fixed match as you can get. For those who saw it, this one was better than a Chris Rock Special. Comedy galore.
Props to Gweasel who was early and strong on the Soto and Montiel unders, and Old Dirty, Romi, and Frank were all over the German chick. Even the Hearns under hit, just not the way anyone imagined!
2. Javier Castro was EXTREMELY disappointing against Antonio Diaz in Mexico. Very meager effort down the stretch for a kid with an undefeated record and a huge opportunity to impress on TV. Diaz, to his credit, fought much better than I thought he would. I still believe Diaz is fade material, but on this night he out-gutted the younger fighter. Castro opened a 2 to 1 underdog and money came in steadily on him. A lot of people, including me, thought this was a good dog pick. But, minus the great first round, Castro lacked passion in there. Not sure I would bet on him again. Of course, depends on the matchup.
Castro's effort was meager down the stretch, but he looked passion-filled compared to Bami in England. Fighting Matt Hatton in Manchester, Bami was never in it and folded rather quickly from a body blow in the 6th. Not what you want to see if you took a shot on the 4 to 1 doggie Bami.
Best doggie of the weekend:
Andy Koelle in Minnesota over the fake KO artist Bonsante. A steal at +180. Nice job Weepaul and Boxlocks !
3. Eddie Chambers proved us all correct with his decision win over fatboy Sammie Peter. Peter actually showed more heart in there than I thought he would, but you simply cannot come in that out of shape and expect to compete at the top level. And yes, Chambers didn't inspire, but I thought he clearly won the fight - I never felt the bet was in jeopardy. Congratulations to those who grabbed this line at +175. An incredible steal. Line moved from +175 to -165 right before the fight. All the money on Chambers - all correctly played.
4. Saldivia in the Virigin Islands turned out to be a great bet at close to even money. This was a stay away fight for me, until Frank's thread pushed me to do a little research. Weasel was also quick to point out Bahari was moving up in weight. This proved to be a big deal, as the fighter from Argentina starched the Indonesian in 1 round. I haven't seen the footage yet (gofightlive.tv is going to have it in a few days), but by all accounts this Saldivia may be a good prospect. One avenged loss, and seems to be knocking everyone out. Good word on his sparring in Argentina as well.
5. Ronald Hearns - oy, where do I start.
There were two ways of approaching this fight. The line opened at -345 and moved to -500. All the money on Tommy's son. I was one of those people that thought the line was too low. I actually thought Hearns would get rid of Yorgey rather easily.
Then there were people like Zerwas who said "Hearns is a tempting bet, but that's a bad price. He ain't proven shite". BINGO. Those who didn't bet the fight were winners here.
Hearns was a bit of a mirage. He had looked VERY good in his last fight against the Canadian Clavette. I didn't think the undefeated Yorgey would be much different. Especially when I saw that Yorgey had been dropped twice by the crappy journeyman Jeremy Yelton.
As it turned out, Yorgey was quite crafty and determined in there. Unlike Javier Castro, Yorgey fought like a guy who wanted to keep his undefeated record. Good for him.
And that was more than enough against a guy with NO CHIN. I mean ZERO. It cracked early and often. Hearns was scheduled late last year to fight Duddy in NYC. I would have been on Hearns in that fight. I think I would have been wrong.
I did know one guy on another board who bet Yorgey ITD and got +720. An amazing hit.
6. Hedging Bets. Like Romi, Hearns was the cornerstone of my parlays for the week.
Konecny/Hearns
Hearns/Soto/Montiel
Dirrell/Hearns/Lopez
Hearns was used in all three because he had (I thought) fairly decent odds that brought the overall price down. Bad Mistake.
A weird thing happened during the fights last night. Not using it as an excuse, but the Hearns vs. Yorgey fight was listed as the main event by Showtime and most off-shore books. Meaning I was expecting the Dirrell fight to occur first. With my mind on the Soto fight in Tijuana, I quickly turned to Showtme and saw the Hearns fight starting. I've been pretty good about my hedging lately. I think, once the Soto fight ended, I would have probably done some quick math and thrown a c-note on Yorgey. As it happened, the fights on Showtime switched order. And 9 rounds later, Hearns was on his back and the parlays were a bust. Hard to focus when money is spread over several fights....fights that are occurring all at the same time around the world.
7. Weeding through a weekend with a ton of fights. It can be difficult. I felt confident in many plays this weekend. But probably spread the money too widely. An upset, somewhere, is bound to happen. I have great admiration for those who can show restraint. I don't have everyone's specific statistics, but taking a quick glance back at this thread, I think Weepaul, Weasel, and Kramden had the best weeks. They were strong and selective with their plays. Congrats guys !
Also Boxlocks, who did real well and found a hidden gem in the OVER 9.5 play in Konency-Colas. Nice call. Sorry if I missed anyone else with a big week, this is just off a quick glance of the thread.
Had I stayed away from the "big favorite" parlays, I would have had a MASSIVE week.
Weekend Regrets:
2 of them this week
- I can't say I regret the Hearns play. I was simply wrong on it. We all make wrong calls. It happens. But allowing the easy +400 hedge to slip away was a BIG MISTAKE.
- only other regret would be the last second Chavez ITD play. I was trying to ride the Tijuana momentum that Montiel and Soto started, but I didn't feel strongly about it. Should have saved a little cash there. Bad last second decision.
2 best bets of the weekend (in my opinion) were Chambers and Lopez.
Chambers had the opportunity basically handed right to him by Peter
and Lopez, in Puerto Rico on his 5th world title try...there was no way that the Thai guy was winning a decision down there
Fight of the weekend was Dodson vs. Quigley for those who caught it....great great fight.
Give and take battle won in the 12th by Quigley.
On to next week.
