Weekend Review:
-The favorites all held serve, with the exception of two small underdogs. Senchenko in the Ukraine and O'Donnell in England. These were basically even money fights, with the slight dogs pulling off decisions in their hometowns. Venue does matter A LOT in betting boxing.
-Venue also mattered on Friday in Arizona and Florida, respectively, where Hector Sanchez and Jeff Lacy were awarded very generous decisions. I viewed the Sanchez fight, and I thought Chop Chop was very unlucky not to get the decision. I scored rounds 1, 3, 7, and 8 for Chop Chop, and with the knockdown he wins by a point. But not in Arizona. The judges had Sanchez comfortably ahead. Sanchez, a touted prospect, was disappointing and has a long way to go. I did not view the Lacy fight (no TV), but if he can't get rid of Otis Griffin, then he can't beat my grandmother (and she died a year ago). Lacy is all done.
-Arreola did not come in heavy again, which set alarm bells off (many players jumped on McCline odds after the weigh-in). But by Saturday afternoon, the odds were back up on Arreola. Once people saw the weigh-in pics, it was clear that McCline was in WORSE shape than his opponent was. McCline did not put up much resistance in there, and made zero effort to get up when he was knocked down. Picking up a paycheck late in the career. Arreola by KO went off at about -150, and the oddsmakers were proven correct. Even though McCline had only been stopped once legitimately by Wlad, it became clear early on in this one he was going out. He was breathing hard and back-wheeling it from the end of round 1 till the KO.
-Paul Williams just had too much of everything for Winky. Too young, too fast, too many punches, too many angles. And Winky couldn't hurt him at all, so by round 8 or 9 this fight was over. Paul did try in 11 to get Wink out of there, but Winky has underrated toughness. If they had a rematch, Wright would be a 20 to 1 underdog. This was a wipeout. All the money showed on Williams, and again, the money trail was correct. He moved from around -160 at opening (give or take) to -250 by fight time. I thought Williams would win this fight convincingly, but I thought it would be a little closer than this. Domination.
-Finally, the Raul Garcia-Ronald Barrera fight took place Saturday in Mexico, and as expected Garcia was again the victor. But, unexpectedly, he got a TKO at the end of the 6th due to a cut on Barrera. The ringside announcers had the hometown fighter winning every round at the time of the stoppage, but I thought Barrera was giving a good account of himself and was in the fight for the most part.
This fight was a huge disappointment and a lesson for me. I bet LARGE on the OVER 9.5. Barrera had never been stopped, Garcia hadn't grabbed a KO win in nearly 2 years, and the two had already fought to a 12 round decision last year. It seemed like a sure thing-which, of course, is the kiss of death. The over went off at -320. It had opened at -290, so players moved it a bit. When the fight got rescheduled 3 different times in 3 weeks, I should have known better. This one was cursed. Literally the only thing that could stop this from the cards was a random cut. And that's exactly what happened. Over/Unders are really never safe in boxing. I have a lot of respect for the players that can hit them consistently. It is just really difficult to do.
Fight of the week, although I have not seen it yet, was apparently Watson vs. O'Donnell. A very close split awarded to O'Donnell. Also, haven't seen Nashiro vs. Tomiyama, but the champ got off the canvas twice to score a KO win in the eighth. Sounded like a good one as well.
REGRETS: One big won. The amount I wagered on the OVER 9.5 in Garcia-Barrera. I was tempted by that line. I should have just used Garcia for my parlay, but he was -700 and the over 9.5 was -300. I went for the lower number, and got bit. Damnit.
As far as I can tell, the other Mexican card never took place. I think that Omar Nino Romero and Juanito Rubillar are just going to go straight into fighting each other on May 16 in Mexico. Too bad, as many of us were giving the +400 dog Hernandez a shot last night.
See you guys next week.
