Boxing 6/4 - 6/7

BOXLOCKS

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YTD Total: +5.80
1 unit play: 1-1 -0.30
1/2 units: 32-18....+2.55
Dogs: 20-37....+3.65
LT's: 1-13....-0.10



6/6 Lottery Ticket

M'Baye Inside Distance +784...lay .10 to win .80 (L)


6/7

Williams-Quintana Over 10? -130...lay 1.3 to win 1.0 (loser)

Scalp...Under 10.5 +180...lay .30 to win .55 (W)


Dogs

Lopez over De Leon +170...lay .75 to win 1.3 (winner)

Mora over Forrest +450...lay .10 to win .45 (winner)

Quintana over Williams +160...lay .30 to win .50 (loser)

Parra over Caballero +360...lay .15 to win .55 (loser)


gl bl
 
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BOXLOCKS

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Futures

6/21 Miranda over Abraham +205...lay .25 to win .50

6/21 Abraham-Miranda Under 9.5 +120....lay .20 to win .25

6/21 Kahn-Gomez Under 9.5 -260...lay 1.0 to win .40

7/12 Thompson over Klitschko +450...lay .10 to win .45

7/26 Margarito over Cotto +175...lay .20 to win .35



Pending Parlays

Malignaggi O10.5 -600 / Sidorenko O9.5 -360 / May-DLH Over 10.5 -350...(-110)...Lay 1.1 to win 1.0 (winner)

Cherry -360 / Malignaggi O10.5 -600 / May-DLH Over 10.5 -350...(-110)...Lay .55 to win .50 (winner)

Williams Under 6.5 -260 / Mundine -600 / May-DLH Over 10.5 -350...(+110)...lay .30 to win .35 (winner)

Pacquiao over Diaz -400 / Mayweather-DLH Over 10.5 -370...(-170)...Lay 1.7 to win 1.0

Sidorenko Over 9? -380 (winner) / Pacquiao over Diaz -400 / May-DLH Over 10? -370...(even)...Lay .50 to win .50

Adamek over Bell -155 (winner) / Holt over Torres -325....(+115)...lay .30 to win .35

Quillin over Echols -325 (winner) / Holt over Torres -325...(-140)...lay .35 to win .25


Odds on graded parlays have changed due to the Mayweather fight, as shown in post #53 of this thread

gl bl
 
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punchmaster

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Parra over Caballero +360...lay .15 to win .55


gl bl

Got to be kidding me- I think your playing the Venezuela angle- Parra's backyard and hoping for a DQ or something. Parra's eyes will be at about Caballero's nipples at the staredown.
 

Zerwas

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Looks like we are on the same side this weekend. :)

My predictions / plays:
Mora vs. Forrest
I see Forrest winning a competetive fight, most likely by decision.
That's what most people suspect...
@about +500 I see value in Mora, bwin offers -200 for over 9.
Moras undefeated, 10 years younger, possibly bigger, has a very akward style, and apparently highly motivated for this fight. On the downside it must be said, that Forrest looked really good lately...his shoulder should be fine, but you never know...there is no way that I would play Forrest at those odds, small bet on over 9 and Mora (by decision).

Ponce Lopez
I played either fighter by decision and the over, but that was more or less based on the odds of bwin which were way off...
Lopez by decision seems to be a good bet, if you favor him...

Quintana Williams
I have a pretty hefty amount on over 10.5 rounds and also some money on Quintana by decision.
I'm contemplating to hedge though.
I frankly dont know why Williams looked so bad last time, he doesnt come across to me as a fighter who looks past challengers, was he troubled by the weight, couldnt he deal with Quintana's style...Williams was getting to Quintana quite a little in the final rounds, Quintana on the other hand couldnt hurt him...
My official prediction is Williams by close decision...

Appleby vs. Simpson
I would like to hear more opinions on that fight.
Is Appleby worth a shot, looks like he will most likely win by decision!?

Mbay vs. Ngoudjou
I like the over in this fight, Mbay IMO shouldnt be a +240 underdog, but afterall the fight's in canada...
 

MCostello1975

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anyone think Mora vs Forrest or Quintana vs Williams can end in a Draw?


BTW I'm new here...hello people....:SIB
 

MCostello1975

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I also think the Parra line is correct. I cant like Parra here though line is tempting. He's up what 3+ weight classes. Home field or not....he is gonna be dwarfed in there.
 

nj

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hey Zerwas thanks for tipping us to the Quintana decision opener, i believe you caught it around +400? hours later i got it at +385, last time i checked its +315. Great value play for those of us who dont see Quintana getting a KO, myself included. I also got two Williams opener bets average -143, and probably wont scalp the +165.

Most likely ill parlay williams and forrest, just to get more money on forrest without laying -500. I like that he's the main event, so if Williams loses ill make new parlays or lay chalk, frankly I think Mora has no chance. I also put a small bet on Forrest inside +160, though I read on Tim Starks column that Mora's chin has been proven in sparring against the likes of Margarito, so I'm not as confident.

I see a close win for Williams setting up a trilogy, and a Forrest wipeout.
 

nj

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Forrest also referred to Mora's style as "garbage" and admitted to laughing at Mora after sparring with him some years ago.

"I beat him up with one arm," Forrest said.

---

Forrest needs this win impressively, considering most boxing viewers will be turning to Pavlik by the time his fight starts, it has to sound like a devestating KO win to get people to watch the highlights, and more importantly, to make people want to see Forrest again against Wright, Mayorga, or a catchweight WW. A boring UD isn't going to cut it.
 

Romi

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Got to be kidding me- I think your playing the Venezuela angle- Parra's backyard and hoping for a DQ or something. Parra's eyes will be at about Caballero's nipples at the staredown.

My 02. It's not all that outrageous. Caba had fits w/lacierva last yr and laci is all of 5' 4". I had Lacierva winning through the mid rds. The fight was much closer than the cards indicated. Maybe he had an off night but he was definitely in a fight and the much shorter fighter was having good success. Caba SHOULD win but wouldn't be totally shocked to see an upset. Which Parra is going to show? If the World class fighter of a few yrs backs comes to fight then this can be competitive. If the Parra that fought the Japanese fighter shows, then it could be an early night.

I have a decnt amount on Mack tonight. I got on @ the opening -200 and rode it to -325. I don't think Mack is anything special but Judah is very ordinary. I also wager the over on Ngoud -265. More to come
 

gardenweasel

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"the bunker"
even if mora`s a naturally bigger guy,i don`t think he has the style to give forrest trouble....

strong guys the press the pace rattle forrest(mayorga/quartey....ike won that fight,imo and i had vernon)....

vernon`s length and boxing ability....coupled with the better power should negate pretty much anything mora does...

everybody likes mack...he`s the better fighter...but,there are size/southpaw issues here...

not my cup of tea...

looking forward to +550 with tony thompson and miranda as a dog at a neutral....

real opportunities there,imo..
 
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BOXLOCKS

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Got to be kidding me- I think your playing the Venezuela angle- Parra's backyard and hoping for a DQ or something. Parra's eyes will be at about Caballero's nipples at the staredown.


At 5'5" Parra is average height for 122 lbs. Caballero at 5'11" is freakishly tall for his weight and has a 6" height advantage over most of his opponents, so height is not really the issue here. If you wanted to make a relevant arguement against Parra it would be that he fought at 112 a few years ago, while Cab is a legit 122 lber

Parra was a world class fighter going into the rematch with Sakata, he missed weight by 5 lbs proving he outgrew the weightclass, now he's looking for a new one. At +360 I'll take my chances with a great fighter having full homefield advantage


gl bl
 

gardenweasel

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"the bunker"
At 5'5" Parra is average height for 122 lbs. Caballero at 5'11" is freakishly tall for his weight and has a 6" height advantage over most of his opponents, so height is not really the issue here. If you wanted to make a relevant arguement against Parra it would be that he fought at 112 a few years ago, while Cab is a legit 122 lber

Parra was a world class fighter going into the rematch with Sakata, he missed weight by 5 lbs proving he outgrew the weightclass, now he's looking for a new one. At +360 I'll take my chances with a great fighter having full homefield advantage


gl bl

like your rationale,bro....and romi`s lacierva point was correct..that fight was verrrrry close...those scores were way out...

parra`s no sissy...he can fight...6 inches is freakish,though........
 

weepaul

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At 5'5" Parra is average height for 122 lbs. Caballero at 5'11" is freakishly tall for his weight and has a 6" height advantage over most of his opponents, so height is not really the issue here. If you wanted to make a relevant arguement against Parra it would be that he fought at 112 a few years ago, while Cab is a legit 122 lber

Parra was a world class fighter going into the rematch with Sakata, he missed weight by 5 lbs proving he outgrew the weightclass, now he's looking for a new one. At +360 I'll take my chances with a great fighter having full homefield advantage


gl bl

I will be joining you on this bet. I got Parra at +400.
I love these fights in far away places. You never know what shenanigans will take place.

I have a big wager on Williams to beat Quintana.

I have a big wager on Lopez to beat Ponce.

I have a small wager on Mora to beat Vernon.

I have a shit load on the UFC. Boxing has been saving my arse on my MMA bets :shrug: .

Good luck all.
 

BOXLOCKS

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I have a decnt amount on Mack tonight. I got on @ the opening -200 and rode it to -325. I don't think Mack is anything special but Judah is very ordinary. I also wager the over on Ngoud -265. More to come


Congrats on Mack

I'm considering the Ngoud Over as a parlay option but I think M'Bay will be throwing bombs, given the location of the fight he won't be trying to win a decision here. M'Baye can punch a little and Ngoud has been rocked before. Still thinking on that one

gl bl
 

Romi

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Congrats on Mack

I'm considering the Ngoud Over as a parlay option but I think M'Bay will be throwing bombs, given the location of the fight he won't be trying to win a decision here. M'Baye can punch a little and Ngoud has been rocked before. Still thinking on that one

gl bl

Thx Box. Mack was a pretty good payout. As I've said a few times, I love WNF's! I feel a lot more comfortable getting that one out of the way heading into the wkend. If the rest of the week doesn't wrk out, it won't be too painful. Not that I'm expecting that but always nice to start the week off with a good cushion.

I haven't seen Ngoud rocked. What fight/s did that happen in? I thought he was a pretty sturdy guy. I'm curious becuase the line has moved and I have a scalp option if his chin is suspect.
 

MayorgaFan

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Randall Bailey hurt him a few times which is understandable. Bailey can hit a bit despite his shortcomings. Emmanuel Augustus damn near knocked Ngoudjo out in the last round. Still I think his chin is OK. Bailey can hit and he was quite tired against Augustus.
 
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