Boxing 6/7 - 6/11

[gardenweasel]

i rode with you guys on the harrison under.........and a win is a win....but after the 6th,i was cussing a bit...

i`ve seen more life from guys filled with formaldehyde...he was fighting a guy that`s damaged goods...

keep that one in mind when harrison fights a live body.....

he could have gotten his man out anytime...if he throws 10 punches a round vs someone fighting back,he may have problems...

the guy looks like the perfect physical specimen...but something`s missing....

congrats,though...bottomline is it`s one in the plus column......

 

[alb]

I was waiting for someone to pick a side on the Casamayor/Raiymkulov fight.

I am privy to the odd boxing info but I always ignored it because I didn't bet on it (until recently).

In the last couple months, Raiymkulov knocked out Corey Spinks while sparring. He also hurt Floyd Mayweather sparring......bad enough that they won't train together anymore.

I don't know how valuable 'unpublicized' info can be so I was waiting for one of you boxing guys to confirm this kid may be worth betting. But since Box is on Casamayor, then it is a no play and I'll cheer the over.

 

[BOXLOCKS]

gw
After the fight Harrison said he wanted to get some rounds in and wasn't looking for the quick KO. The way he fought, I believe him. He will definitly need to pick up the pace when he steps up in competition, but I think he knows that.

Hell, we had 2 more rounds to cash that ticket.
Sure he could have ended it much earlier, but its not like the wager was a close call.

Easy money

 

[BOXLOCKS]

alb
Don't let me talk you out of anything. Raiymkulov is definitely a big puncher and the card is promoted by top rank so anything close might go to KD. I'll give more thoughts on this fight later.

gl bl

 

[Sonny Palermo]

Box,
saw the Harrison bout was gonna be on the tube, didn't feel like 'capping it, or trying to, so I stopped by here to get your take on it and rode the Under with ya,
much thanks,
Sonny

 

[Spreadking]

layed some on

Zavala +170
Zavala boxed smart vs Quiroz in stopping him. He should be the stronger fighter tonight. split decision for Zavala.

Primera +110
Garcia his opponent has no defense, and Primera a good power puncher. Garcia has a bad chin as well.

this weekend

 

[gardenweasel]

not complaining...don`t mind guy`s being economical with their punches....but,there were rounds when he threw less than 10 punches....patient..o.k.....he was inert...and davis isn`t exactly a real dangerous guy at this point in his career...

just saying that we need to see how harrision handles a live body before jumping in again...he`s talented...i wonder about his heart...


i was sort of looking at primera myself....primera has a substantial height advantage...

was never thrilled with garcia...not much power at jr middle...much less middle...

he`ll swarm....

it`s not like primera hasn`t been in with tough guys...that`s all he does...the problem is,he loses to them..mostly...

still,it`s a winnable fight for primera....very small...

always felt that the lines that were hedged this slightly toward one guy or another are meant to sublimiinally influence wagering..

but,i`m paranoid...

also see zavala as a reasonable dog play...

g.l.

 

[alb]

Box;
I wasn't going to bet on KD unless you or one of the good cappers was on him. I can get sparring info but my thinking is its like pre-season games.....means little compared to the real thing. Since I brought it up, can anyone confirm or refute this comparison?

 

[MayorgaFan]

I had heard the same things but you are right, they don't mean a lot. In sparring a lot of times guys are trying to emulate another fighter, not necessarily fighting there own style. Casamayor has a VERY difficult style for Ramkulov to fight. If Casamayor is stupid enough to stand and strade he could get hurt. if he's smart enough to box and choose his spots, he's going to win. This fight all comes down to how much Casamayor has left.

 

[gardenweasel]

and how persistent and willfull kid diamond is...how much mental toughness does he have?...

we`ve seen casamayor fade a bit in a few fights recently...i wasn`t crazy about him vs seda...i thought that scoring was way off....

and he faded vs castillo...

another real question about joel is,legitimately,"how the hell old is the guy?"

these cubans come over and in many instances,hedge their ages by a few years to increase their bargaining power.....

he could be as old as 35 or 36...

of course.he`s still very difficult to fight....and diamond struggled some vs gogoladze,another lefty.....

gogoladze isn`t casamayor..

also,anybody else see a slight dropoff in casamayor since goossen left?....

but,it`s still tough to go against casamayor....particularly at those favorable odds....

 

[Flipper13]

That is a good point you make about Casa's age since he is from Cuba...He probably is at least 2 years older than stated.

 

[BOXLOCKS]

No problem Sonny, glad you cashed

Not sure why you're avoiding private communication between us but thats alright, I'm sure you have your reasons.

gl bl

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Spread

I sent this to MF last night...

I think Primera has a good shot of beating Garcia, the promotion favors Garcia but I don't see this going the distance. I think Primera can and will stop Garcia, esp with the promotional factor. He should be very aggressive and try to stop Garcia before it gets to the cards. At +110 it might be worth a shot. Played it small, but didn't post it.

-------------------------------------------------------------------

More thoughts...

This fight is hosted by Garcia's promoter Bennie Georgino and since Garcia has a high work rate I imagine he would win a decision wether his haymakers are landing or not.

Having said that and like I said before, I don't expect this to go the distance. Garcia will be aggressive, but due to the promotional disadvantage I expect Primira to jump on him early like Phillips did.

As mentioned above, I played Primera +110 small, but I'm not posting it for record.

gl bl

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Zavala - Santa Cruz

Zavala - Santa Cruz

OK I'll bite

I thought Zavala was a live dog when he opened at +110, then I thought he was a live dog at +135, and now he's all the way up to +165 which mahes me wonder what we're missing here.

Cruz opened at -145 and is now at -215

Thats one of the biggest line movements at 5dimes this week, scares me a little, so I did some research trying to figure out why there's so much money on Cruz and none on Zavala.

The fight is promoted by top rank and 8 count productions. I went to both of their websites but neither of them mentioned Zavala or Cruz in their list of fighters. Perhaps one of them signed Cruz after they last updated the website.

I don't pay attention to line movement in big fights because half the bettors have no clue about boxing. However, I watch line movement on smaller fights very closely.

Only the hardcores and insiders are betting these smaller fights. Joe Public will not be betting the Zavala-Cruz fight tonight, believe me.

Obviously some of the hardcore boxing cappers around here are leaning Zavala. So why is all the money coming in on Cruz? What do the insiders know that we don't?

As far as capping the fight...

Cruz' has a 3 inch height advantage which would normally give him an advantage, but Zavala is southpaw and Cruz hasn't fought many lefty's at all. Hasn't fought one lefty as skilled as Zaval for sure. Zavala has some decent wins and also has Roach in his corner. Cruz stopped Morua in the 8th, Zavala won a 10 round UD over him. The location doesn't favor either fighter.

I see this as a very even fight, what am I missing here? Does anyone know if either fighter was signed by top rank or 8 count recently?

I put a small personal wager on Zavala at +165, but I'm not recommending it.

gl bl

 

[BOXLOCKS]

While I do think sparring information is valuable its not always an accurate measurement.

Sam Sollivan (a legit top 10 at 168) sparred with Tzsyu before the Hatton fight. After their last session, he said that Tzsyu was hitting extremely hard and that no one at 140 would be able to take his punch.

I guess he meant no one but Hatton (lol)


However...

I remember hearing that Vic Darchinyan hurt all of his sparring partners prior to his fight with Sikali. They couldn't find anyone else willing to fight him, so his trainer had to put on the gloves and headgear.

The result...Darchinyan TKO 8

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Casamayor-Raiymkulov

Casamayor-Raiymkulov

First of all, I wish I knew if this fight was 10 or 12 rounds, getting conflicting reports from everywhere.

Anyway

I watched the Raiym-Gogoladze fight and wasn't real impressed with KD's boxing ability. Sure he was fighting a southpaw but Casamayor is also a lefty and one of the slickest in the game today. If KD had problems with Gogo, how will he figure out the much more skilled Casamayor? The logical answer is...he won't.

Not only has Casa been in with the best, he has looked very good against the very best. Many boxing guys think Casa deserved the decision over Freitas, Corrales, and Castillo. Whether he deserved to win those fights or not, it doesn't change the fact that he is definitely at that top level of the sport.

KD hasn't fought anyone worth mentioning. The guy can punch for sure, but so can Freitas, Castillo, and Corrales. Those fighters are much more skilled than skilled than KD and still couldn't stop Casa with their power.

What is KD's plan B when he figures out he can't hurt Casa?

From what I've seen KD doesn't have a plan B, this fight is starting to remind me of Wright over Trinidad.


As I mentioned before, this fight is promoted by top rank so anything close could go to KD. But after watching KD-Gogo, I think Casa will give KD a boxing lesson so obvious the judges won't be able to shade it.

Playing it small just in case Casa gets robbed

Also have the over big which is basically a safer play on Casamayor. KD is very tough and naturally bigger, has a head like a wrecking ball. I don't see Casa hurting KD.

Other than the promotion, the only thing that worries me is Casa getting overconfident. He is already very confident for this fight and he should be. But if he schools KD from the start, which is possible, he could get lazy and leave himself open, or even worse he could try to trade with KD.

IMO Casa is too smart to let either of those happen, and if he does slip up and get caught, his excellent chin will allow him to learn from the mistake and make adjustments.

gl bl

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Cruz stops Zavala in the 4th

Another example of huge line movement in a smaller fight predicting the winner.

 

[Sonny Palermo]

Box,

I'm not the avoiding type, just forgot, sorry.

I got sidetracked by the post after you asked me to contact you, something like "be careful". I posted a reply asking "re:" but don't think I got an answer and can't find that thread now (is it still up? how do I find it via search here?).

Anyway, don't want to post my e-mail address here as I don't allow it elsewhere (I don't like solicitors) but if you ask Jack for it it's OK with me if he will forward it to you. Unless you have another way to suggest to get in touch? You gonna be in Vegas anytiome soon? If so, hook up with me and Frank S and let's talk some boxing, drinks are on me...

BTW - I got down on Lucia (no, not that kind of 'got down') at -180. Went the day after I heard she opened at -150 but it was already hit. I would have made her -350 to -400 but what do I know - I'm just a bookmaker/boxing writer......

 

[MadJack]

sonny, how many times were we supposed to hook up out there and it never happened? i'll be out july 6th thru 16th so let's have a couple brews and catch up.

jack@madjacksports.com

 

[Flipper13]

dang Box, I just read your post and didn't realize that Santa Cruz was fighting last night(i need to check in more often)...

i saw him spar a few months ago, and saw that he is pretty good even though he got drilled a bit against my favorite boxer of all time...but the kid is very talented...

i am leaning to casa as well, but i will probably go with a regular bet on him to win because if kd pushes the tempo, i think casa has the skills to ko kd...is he fighting on the same card as tyson?