Boxing 7/23 - 7/26

[BOXLOCKS]

YTD Total: +4.55
1 unit play: 2-2 -1.55
1/2 units: 41-22....+0.65
Dogs: 27-41....+5.85
LT's: 1-18....-0.40



7/23 Small Dog

Mendoza-Lacy Under 5.5 +125...lay .15 to win .20 (loser)


7/25 Dogs

McGirt over Joval +145...lay .30 to win .45 (winner)

Estrada over Karass +220...lay .40 to win .90 (loser)


LT's

McGirt-Joval Draw +1350...lay .05 to win .70 (L)

Estrada-Karass Draw +1600...lay .05 to win .80 (L)



7/26 Dogs

Alvarado-Bazan Under 9.5 +180...lay .30 to win .55 (winner)

Margarito over Cotto +175...lay .20 to win .35(winner)

Margarito Inside Distance +380...lay .10 to win .40 (winner)


Parlay

Cotto -240 / Lacy -900 / Segura -650 / Alvarado -1500...(-110)...lay .55 to win .50 (loser)



gl bl

 

[nj]

David Estrada +220? Seems a bit high to me.

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Adding

Estrada over Karass +220...lay .40 to win .90


Only $100 wager allowed right now, but I'll be hitting this until it gets below +150

N.J. we must've hit this at the exact same time for both of us to get +220, last time I layed $100 on one of their openers it moved 35 cents...lol


gl bl

 

[gardenweasel]

David Estrada +220? Seems a bit high to me.

more than a bit....i stepped away from the computer to placate the better half..there was no line..... and heres the line already down to +175...

i`m on it...

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Btw, I was waiting for the Estrada-Karass line to surface as I knew Karass would open the favorite. I've seen him a few times and he's extremely overrated, has won a few close decisions he didn't deserve and has stopped a couple of guys late in fights he was losing.

I don't post my thoughts or plays until the lines come out, thats why I didn't post my lean on Estrada

gl bl

 

[BOXLOCKS]

more than a bit....i stepped away from the computer to placate the better half..there was no line..... and heres the line already down to +175...

i`m on it...

I knew it would move, but not that much...

I'm down again at +175...works for me

gl bl

 

[frank s.]

Lacy-INSIDE-269. Not that Lacy is good, but Mendoza, I feel is cannon fodder. He will just naturally break down as his level of opposition has been very weak, so even if Lacy boxes, he lands, he wins, off the cards.

 

[nj]

by Graham's preview it seems Karass has been in some tough gym wars with Margarito and is an old 25.

Im glad you caught the best line boxlox, I would have missed the openers if you didnt inform us in the Mcgirt thread, thanks. It would have been pretty shitty if you were too busy posting and missed the best line lol.

Im glad you caught +175 in time gw, still a solid play.

 

[nj]

It could get ugly Frank, Lacy may want to go the rounds to get comfortable or revert to an earlier style of boxing, or maybe his shoulder isnt ready. I always have to remind myself that these guys fight for money more than pride, if he's not ready but the bills are piling, he'll be back.

boxlox alluded to this in the cotto/margarito thread, here are the quotes:

?It?s not a question of improving Jeff, just getting him back to where he was with the jabs and the combinations, and getting him into the habit of doing that again,? Bloodworth said.

The trainer agreed that Lacy had started to get away from using his boxing skills and had become overly reliant on his strength and punching power, especially the big left hook.

?When you?re a strong guy you tend to depend on your strength,? Bloodworth said, ?so what you have to do is work on things so you can use your strength to its best advantage.

?What I hope is for Jeff to go back to using the jab, because he does have an excellent jab when he uses it, and it does have the ability to control fights, and to put in the combinations. If a knockout comes, that?s great, but I really don?t care. Jeff hasn?t been in the ring for such a long time it won?t hurt him to go some rounds.?

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Played Estrada again at +150 and now I'm done...

Got down at +220 / +175 / +165 / +150

Works for me, I was looking for +150 and got much more than that


gl bl

 

[nj]

You think Alvarado can get Bazan out before the bell? under 9.5 +180, I took a small play, going to watch the line here.

 

[Ghost Kid]

you read my mind on alvarado janitor

i'm gonna take a shot there

alvarado looked good in dispatching of m. rosales

bezan has a lot of mileage on him

i think he may wilt before 9.5

 

[BOXLOCKS]

You think Alvarado can get Bazan out before the bell? under 9.5 +180, I took a small play, going to watch the line here.

Caught the opener just in time, thanks for posting, after my play the line might move a bit, if you want more on the Under just wait a few minutes


gl bl

 

[gardenweasel]

you read my mind on alvarado janitor

i'm gonna take a shot there

alvarado looked good in dispatching of m. rosales

bezan has a lot of mileage on him

i think he may wilt before 9.5

bazan`s only 33?...man,theres alot of wear on those 33 year old tires...

if you think about where stevie johnston`s career is....and that he and bazan are contemporaries.....

still,i personally haven`t seen him in years...


might be worth a look at =180....but,i`m getting a little spread out this weekend..

 

[BOXLOCKS]

You think Alvarado can get Bazan out before the bell? under 9.5 +180, I took a small play, going to watch the line here.

I played the Under 9.5 at +180 and +140

Thanks for the heads-up

gl bl

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Adding

Parlay

Cotto -240 / Lacy -900 / Segura -650 / Alvarado -1500...(-110)...lay .55 to win .50


gl bl

 

[frank s.]

1) Lacy has always cost me. I never learn.
2) I very rarely make any money on WNF.
3) The janitor was right and weepaul was ALMOST right. I was way the F**k off. AGAIN!

 

[gardenweasel]

1) Lacy has always cost me. I never learn.
2) I very rarely make any money on WNF.
3) The janitor was right and weepaul was ALMOST right. I was way the F**k off. AGAIN!

don`t be so hard on yerself.....you`re a streaky mofo.....it`s comin`...

it`s only july...

 

[Zerwas]

F****! I missed that opener on Estrada.
I was actually hoping for those lines but didint really believe it would happen...still got him @+160 anyway...

I also got Bazan Under 9.5 @+170
The fightwriter thinks Alvaredo will get him out of there...

I tentatively bet on McGirt as well, but not much...+300 looks a bit high for Under 9.5.
Joval is old as hell and McGirt has been knocked out in his last fight.

 

[frank s.]

OK weasel. I'll calm down. "weasel-the voice of reason has spoken"!