Boxing 8/13 - 8/14

[Quanah]

Thanks for the RBR Romi. It's good to read back.

Ghost - you were right about Eloy, no dice at all there. Plus, he showed some power or tenacity in getting Campos out.

Arreola was ill-advised, but just small and for fun. Quezada hung tough. I went on this just for fun, but from a capping perspective that's a careless mistake... gotta be patient and pick my spots.

All and all, I got what I wanted, which was a Joseito win + Arreola win. Now I've got a healthy amount on Dawson at even up, and I like my chances!!!

Back with some more Sat. picks in just a bit.

:0074

 

[Quanah]

Saturday picks

Saturday picks

Dawson and Dawson by dec.

Moreno-Cermeno OVER 11.5 (-200) - medium
Nehomar Cermeno (+160) - medium rare
Nehomar Cermeno by dec. (+320) - small +
Great fight! I think the likelihood is that this will go the distance. 11.5 always tough, but barring a cut or such, I like this wager and was pleased to get these odds. As to the winner, I'm just getting the feeling that Cermeno is going to get it done. I'm a Moreno fan, and have great respect for the way he's been a road warrior in winning many quality fights. But I think it's his time to drop one. Somehow strangely fitting that it will happen when he returns home. His fight with Monshipour in France was very tough, tougher than it should have been. And I think he lost the first fight with Cermeno, if only by a whisker. I'm just getting the sense that this time Cermeno's strength will get him barely over the hump. If it happens, it will almost certainly be by decision, and I really like this prop at +320.

Ji Hoon Kim (-135) - very small Got in early here, but keeping it in check. Vazquez is definitely live based on boxing skill, and Kim is especially crude. Wouldn't touch it at current odds, but I do think Kim's tenacity will win it.

Cornelius Lock (+265) - very small Just playing the odds here. I'm not sold on Garcia yet, and he may be a bit slower than Lock. Garcia just 22 and Lock a definitive step up. He SHOULD win, but I wouldn't be very surprised at all to see Lock pull it out.

The plays are Dawson, who I parlayed down, and Cermeno. If Dawson wins I win, if by decision it's a good week and the rest is gravy!

Good luck fellas!!!

 

[LordoftheLunch]

Moreno-Cermeno OVER 11.5 (-200) -

like that one too. :toast:

 

[gardenweasel]

i think you make some excellent points,bud....kim is maybe as enjoyable a fighter to watch as there is,but,he eats punches like candy....

vasquez losses to saul alvarz(twice) and tim bradley....not alot else on his resume(before prescott),but if theres any homecourt advantage to be had,i`d think it would go with the mexican fighting in laredo...

kim is on a tear...i wish this was on t.v.(rfox sports is only carried in spanish on my cable and only by special subscription)...should be fun to watch...

i see a +185....might be worth a tiny wager....kim`s on too much of a roll to dedicate real money against him vs a mediocre punching opponent..

but,i`m in very small...:0074

i just noticed that many of vasquez`fights(including alvarez and bradley) were fought at a higher weight....he`s fought as high as 148!......

not sure whether making the weight will bother vasquez...or whether he might have a natural size advantage...kim is still relatively young and growing into a natural weight(actually,they`re both quite young)......

even though he was knocked down vs prescott,vasquez has been able to hang with bigger guys(fought alvarez at 148.5)....

and if it goes the distance,the guy is a nice technician and has a shot at copping a decision...

still seeing a +185..might put a couple extra dollars on vasquez...to bring it up to just a small play...can`t go crazy because,after all,vasquez is +185 for a reason...

wth...:shrug:

 

[december26]

Kim vs. Vazquez

Kim vs. Vazquez

i just noticed that many of vasquez`fights(including alvarez and bradley) were fought at a higher weight....he`s fought as high as 148!......

not sure whether making the weight will bother vasquez...or whether he might have a natural size advantage...kim is still relatively young and growing into a natural weight(actually,they`re both quite young)......

even though he was knocked down vs prescott,vasquez has been able to hang with bigger guys(fought alvarez at 148.5)....

and if it goes the distance,the guy is a nice technician and has a shot at copping a decision...

still seeing a +185..might put a couple extra dollars on vasquez...to bring it up to just a small play...can`t go crazy because,after all,vasquez is +185 for a reason...

wth...:shrug:

Not sure how much stock should be put into the Canelo fights as Vazquez fought him when he was 15 and 17, the first being Canelo's debut.

 

[weepaul]

After last week, between losing EVERY bet for boxing and UFC :facepalm: , I am staying away from actual betting for a couple of weeks but I will give my opinions.

I think Dawson smokes Pascal and might even stop him. The body shots Dawson was hitting Johnson with in the first fight, would have made a lesser man crumble.

The fight is in Canada but at least Marlon B Wrong is not involved.

I don't think Dawson has been in with someone as fast as Pascal but I think the same can be said for Pascal. Dawson is not only fast but highly skilled as well.
Pascal couldn't get out of the way of Caveman Froch's cumbersome punches, he will be in deep shit when Dawson lets his hands fly.

I just can't get the vision of Omar Pittman, staggering Pascal a couple of times, out of my head.

I do believe that Pascal moving up in weight has done him the World of good as he seems to take a punch better and has better stamina.
I'm afraid this won't be enough and Dawson stops him after weakening him with body shots and busting up his face.

Vasquez is a great bet at +185. This fight should be even. If Vasquez survives the first 2 rounds, I think he wins.
He has the awkward style to give Kim nightmares and Kim gets tagged way too easily.
I'm surprised Vasquez would fight at 148 as his body type looks like it makes 135 easy.

I am not sold on Garcia but Lock does enough to just lose.

Good luck gang!!! :toast:

 

[Romi]

After last week, between losing EVERY bet for boxing and UFC :facepalm: , I am staying away from actual betting for a couple of weeks but I will give my opinions.

I think Dawson smokes Pascal and might even stop him. The body shots Dawson was hitting Johnson with in the first fight, would have made a lesser man crumble.

The fight is in Canada but at least Marlon B Wrong is not involved.

I don't think Dawson has been in with someone as fast as Pascal but I think the same can be said for Pascal. Dawson is not only fast but highly skilled as well.
Pascal couldn't get out of the way of Caveman Froch's cumbersome punches, he will be in deep shit when Dawson lets his hands fly.

I just can't get the vision of Omar Pittman, staggering Pascal a couple of times, out of my head.

I do believe that Pascal moving up in weight has done him the World of good as he seems to take a punch better and has better stamina.
I'm afraid this won't be enough and Dawson stops him after weakening him with body shots and busting up his face.

Vasquez is a great bet at +185. This fight should be even. If Vasquez survives the first 2 rounds, I think he wins.
He has the awkward style to give Kim nightmares and Kim gets tagged way too easily.
I'm surprised Vasquez would fight at 148 as his body type looks like it makes 135 easy.

I am not sold on Garcia but Lock does enough to just lose.

Good luck gang!!! :toast:

Hope you are correct because those are my 2 bets today Brother :toast:. You have the Kim fight pegged exactly as I do. IF Vas survives the early going, it doesn't exactly take a maestro to outbox Kim.

My concern in Canada is the officiating. I can see a bad ref warning Dawson for "low" shots and taking him out of his plan. The judges would take over the rest. Hopefully Dawson takes it out of their hands. I know Urango got a fair shake 2 yrs back but weve seen too many other dubious deeds going on to ignore it. I have 1 other potential play. Also, caught a glimpse of Garcia and I wasn't blown away by the guy. IF Lock shows some determination and cajones, he could spring an upset. He had a great opportunity v Ponce but simply didn't believe in himself enough to go for it.

Better luck for you when you get back in it. Just stay disciplined brother and you will win some money. You are a good capper :toast:

 

[gardenweasel]

Not sure how much stock should be put into the Canelo fights as Vazquez fought him when he was 15 and 17, the first being Canelo's debut.

the first alvarez fight was actually vasquez` debut....and he had just turned 19 himself the month of the alvarez fight......

alvarez is the bigger guy...and more talented...

i`m just saying that vasquez has a shot because he`s proven he can hang in with bigger guys than kim...and those guys can punch a little...

i always try to give some reasoning why i`m willing to take a flyer on a doggie....

not comparing vasquez to alvarez....

and i agree with wee and romi....i like pascal...a super athlete...quicjk...athletic...but he punches awfully wide way to much to suit me vs a great lefty like dawson........

he tends to jump in with flurries and being that we have a lefty/righty situation,i wouldn`t be a bit shocked to see somebody bleeding here...


two guys with amazing fast-twitch muscles..it`s gonna be a blur in there at times...
the venue should help him,though...

 

[Romi]

the first alvarez fight was actually vasquez` debut....and he had just turned 19 himself the month of the alvarez fight......

alvarez is the bigger guy...and more talented...

i`m just saying that vasquez has a shot because he`s proven he can hang in with bigger guys than kim...and those guys can punch a little...

i always try to give some reasoning why i`m willing to take a flyer on a doggie....

not comparing vasquez to alvarez....

and i agree with wee and romi....i like pascal...a super athlete...quicjk...athletic...but he punches awfully wide way to much to suit me vs a great lefty like dawson........

he tends to jump in with flurries and being that we have a lefty/righty situation,i wouldn`t be a bit shocked to see somebody bleeding here...


two guys with amazing fast-twitch muscles..it`s gonna be a blur in there at times...
the venue should help him,though...

Basically my take on it as well. He fought two bigger guys and hung in there. I wouldn't give Kim a prayer v Bradley and obviously canelo is out of the wt range at this pt. This is a pic em fight. Kim has serious defensive flaws and IF vas can hang in a few rds then his chances go way up. Should be a good scrap one way or the other. The wt will have no effect on Vas. He fought Prescott at 135 and there was no issue.

 

[Ghost Kid]

Kim-Vasquez and Moreno-Cermeno seem like EXTREMELY difficult fights to pick

Moreno-Cermeno could probably split 10 fights down the middle - they are that close

I sort of subscribe to Quanah's theory that Moreno is due for some bad luck - EVERYTHING has gone his way in EVERY close fight

and Kim-Vasquez has like a million factors to consider - you could make a good argument for either guy

If Kim DOES STOP Vasquez he is a serious badass

Along with my Pascal longshots
I made one play today:
I parlayed Mikey Garcia to the OVER 9.5 in the Moreno-Cermeno fight

I HATE OVER BETS but I think these guy go the route 9 and out 10 fights

Good luck all
:toast:

 

[Ghost Kid]

This Ain't No Lock for Garcia
http://www.maxboxing.com/news/promo-lead/this-aint-no-lock-for-garcia

 

[LordoftheLunch]

Totally agree with Ghost, very close fights tonight!
Thats why I paly some nice amoutns on the Draw for most of them.

Kim by Dec at +600 is value IMO...

Looking forward to the fights!:0corn

Cheers
LotL

 

[gardenweasel]

any ideas who the home-boy in kim/vasquez is promotionally?....

i was guessing kim,being that he`s the hot commodity....but it`s in laredo and on fox espanol.....

so i really don`t know....

 

[gardenweasel]

i missed the fact that vasquez has been on the sidelines for over a year....

still worth the small shot..

 

[Ghost Kid]

This Bopp chick fighting tonight in Argentina is pretty good looking

 

[THE_THONG]

i'd beat it up
:mj07:

 

[tonymontana]

hello guys

some great capping the last week.

My plays are Dawson inside. Pascal is pretty open when he punches and Dawson has fought against guys that are hard to put down (Johnson and Tarver). Actually the location helps this bet alittle because Dawson wants to avoid any funny dec.
Dawson is on a different level than diaconu or frosch.

But some people who know more about boxing give Pascal an excellent shot at winning but the stoppage prob has value. I have some Pascal inside too and split dec.

I also like Vasquez at these odds. Never seen him but he has a solid resume and Kim is going down hard sooner or later, i mean he gets tacked so cleanly sometimes it is not even funny.

good luck to anybody.

 

[gardenweasel]

hello guys

some great capping the last week.

My plays are Dawson inside. Pascal is pretty open when he punches and Dawson has fought against guys that are hard to put down (Johnson and Tarver). Actually the location helps this bet alittle because Dawson wants to avoid any funny dec.
Dawson is on a different level than diaconu or frosch.

But some people who know more about boxing give Pascal an excellent shot at winning but the stoppage prob has value. I have some Pascal inside too and split dec.

I also like Vasquez at these odds. Never seen him but he has a solid resume and Kim is going down hard sooner or later, i mean he gets tacked so cleanly sometimes it is not even funny.

good luck to anybody.

good to see you back and posting....

 

[THE_THONG]

i like chad dawson ez

so that means bet on pascal
:mj07:

 

[Ghost Kid]

this should be Panama link for later

this should be Panama link for later

Saturday, August 14

TVMax (Panama), 9:00 p.m. Eastern, Anselmo Moreno vs. Nehomar Cermeno II, Gennady Golovkin vs. Milton Nunez, Luis Concepcion vs. Wilfrido Vazquez, Alberto Mosquera vs. Nilson Lara.

This card is available via live, legal stream at http://www.tvmax-9.com/live_deportes.asp