Boxing 8/9 - 8/12

[BOXLOCKS]

YTD Total: +0.65 units
1 unit plays: 6-4 -3.00
1/2 unit plays: 62-29 -3.75
Dogs: 42-60 +7.40



8/9

Reid over Phillips +290...lay .20 to win .60 (loser)

8/10

Viloria-Romero Over 7.5 +187...lay .15 to win .30 (winner)

Zertuche-Bojorquez Over 9.5 +137...lay .15 to win .20 (loser)

Parlay

Cherry over Alicea -650 (winner) / Kessler over Beyer -720...lay .80 to win .25


8/12

Rahman over Maskaev -225...lay 1.55 to win .70 (loser)

Maskaev over Rahman +298...lay .20 to win .60 (winner)

Maskaev +16.5 points +137...lay .25 to win .35 (winner)


Notes:

1) If you played the Under 8.5 +100 as recommended, you should now take the Over 8.5 +125 at BetCRIS

2) When I posted Maskaev +298 and +16.5 +137....I made it very clear that these plays were made based on value knowing the line would move in a big way. In fact, I later posted that Sportsbook still had +250 on Maskaev and recommended playing it before the line moved.

3) As predicted, the line is now -205 setting up a very nice scalp and a possible middle with the points handicap. Since Rahman is involved, I'll be waiting for the weigh-ins to decide whether or not to scalp, and if so...for how much.

4) I don't recommend playing Maskaev at the current prices...value is gone. These plays were made a month ago and my intensions were very clear.


gl bl

 

[THE KOD]

BOX

Is Don King involved in this at all ?

Have to ask , its a standard question for me in the fight game.

 

[lvlarc_uk]

Very quiet week. I just still have Maskaev riding at +170 from few weeks back.

 

[BOXLOCKS]

BOX

Is Don King involved in this at all ?

Have to ask , its a standard question for me in the fight game.

Unless DK signed Maskaev very recently without me knowing about it, he's not involved in this fight. I'll do some more checking to make sure though.

Rahman is fighting under Bob Arum/Top Rank who is promoting this card, and the fight is in Las Vegas. Arum has plenty of pull in Vegas, so the politics are in favor of Rahman here for sure. But the fight has to go the distance for that to have any influence.

gl bl

 

[amhlilhaus]

everywhere I look everyone talks about how both these guys are chinless, and while their history might bear that out, rahman by dec at +450 looks intriguing. any thoughts on that? maybe wait for the weigh in to see if he's out of shape.

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Adding

Reid over Phillips +290...lay .10 to win .30



Also played Reid inside distance +622...small personal play, line is too high

gl bl

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Adding a little more to Reid

Final play...lay .2 to win .6

gl bl

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Adding

Long distance parlay...

Cherry over Alicea -650 / Kessler over Beyer -720...lay .80 to win .25


I'll be using Kessler as the kicker of multiple parlays over the next two months

gl bl

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Phillips-Reid

Phillips-Reid

Phillips is the better boxer but he's in a very tough spot tonight imo. This fight is at middleweight, neither of these guys have fought at 160, but with Reid being 5'11" and 3.5" taller, he should carry the extra weight much better than Phillips.

I already mentioned the 3.5" height difference, Reid also had a 3" reach advantage, a big power advantage, and he's fighting much closer to home...should have the crowd behind him.

This is a 12 round fight which is also very good for Reid. Phillips is 36 years old and has been through some wars. Now stepping up in weight at a late age, and fighting a much taller, longer guy who has big power in both hands. With the extra weight and age, I expect Phillips to fade late in the fight. Esp since he'll have to work to get inside on the longer guy. Reid should use some of that power on the body early in the fight, would do him serious justice in the late rounds. Of coure Reid also has the power to stop Phillips early as well.


gl bl

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Phillips stopped Reid in the 12th

Reid came on strong in the 9th round like I figured he would, but Phillips landed a perfect body shot that basicaly ended the fight

Oh well, it was worth a small shot at those odds

gl bl

 

[gardenweasel]

i was online until early afternoon yesterday and saw no odds on the fight.......must have posted after i signed off.....

i was a little scared for reid.....wasn`t a bad wager given reid`s height and power....but,lord,he took alot of shots....hard shots....

i think that his people need to keep an eye on him from this point on....i almost turned it off late in the fight...it was scarey....

the guy has way to much heart...and tommy brooks is a damned ghoul...

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Adding a small play for tonight...


Viloria-Romero Over 7.5 +187...lay .15 to win .30


gl bl

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Adding another small play for tonight...


Zertuche-Bojorquez Over 9.5 +137...lay .15 to win .20


gl bl

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Zertuche stopped Bojorquez in the 8th

However

The Viloria-Romero Over 7.5 just cashed at +187

Works for me

 

[gardenweasel]

anybody else think that 50 quatloos is a tad steep for the rahman/putin card?.......

the supporting fights aren`t all that intriguing to me.....

what is it,3 fights total?....

 

[THE KOD]

gw

who you calling putin?

 

[frank s.]

I'll answer only if you tell me what in the f**k resident ass oxygen thief, etc. means!

 

[gardenweasel]

putin/maskaev :shrug: ...what`s the diff?....he`s fighting some ex kgb dude....

 

[gardenweasel]

ass chapeau/oxygen thief was my career choice prior to becoming a bouncer at lady foot locker....

 

[gardenweasel]

i grabbed rahman inside the distance at -105........and maskaev as a hedge at +220......

the maskaev bet is just a cover.....just enough to cover the wager....

but,i think that maybe rahman gets oleg out of there.......maybe the jab busts him up a bit....

i`m no rahman fan...he`s as inconsistent as they come.....but....i think that rahman wants this one....

maskaev has never lost a decision...all 5 losses inside the distance...

i know maskaev boxed vs wooden indian sam.....and i know that rahman`s people want him to use the jab and fight under control....

i still think that somebody goes...these two aren`t what you`d call nifty....they`re big men...and i expect them to settle in and stand in front of one another...

i am familiar with rahman....he can be lazy...but,i hear he trained hard for this..he`s at his lowest weight aside from meehan in years ..and i think he has the mentality that if he has a chance,he`d love to return the favor to maskaev(the k.o.)....getting literally knocked out of the ring...having that replay shown over and over....

i get the feeling that it grates on rahman...


a chancy wager,though....rahman is sooo unpredictable...

but...going back to the corey sanders fight....actually,going back to the whitaker loss(i don`t consider corey saunders a monster puncher),i don`t see anybody on maskaev`s record that i would consider a real threat to get him out of there...he`s been in soft,puncher-wise...and the guy is 37....

now watch...it`ll be rahman/ruiz II....

g.l.