Boxing 8/9 - 8/12

[Hellephant]

Lets try this, boxing and betting, I follow my intuition, maybe I'll get rich.

Rahman versus Maskaev.
Maskaev boxed well against Sinan Samil Sam, he could take a hit without an immediate need for retaliation. I see Maskaev as a better boxer today than, lets say, five years ago. Rahman, he's weaker and slower, I don't see him pressuring The Big O that much. I think it's likely that the fight lasts over 9,5 rounds, and naturally, since most people believes in under 9,5 rounds, I see good value in playing the other option.

Rahman-Maskaev Over 9,5 +180, I'll play it medium


Santa Cruz versus Diaz.
Ok, this battle will be bombs and grenades big time and both fighters will be on the canvas. Santa Cruz will likely win, but the odds on this combat is ridiculous. Santa Cruz was hurt several times by Edner Cherry and I don't rule out Diaz stopping Cruz. I slightly favour Margarito wannabe Cruz, but just slightly. Anyway, the fight will be short.

Santa Cruz-Diaz Under 10,5 -127, I'll play it big
Diaz Over Cruz +427, I'll play it small

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Welcome Hellephant...another solid boxing head from the other site

gl tonight, I'm considering a small shot on Diaz at +425 myself. I agree that Cruz deserves to be the favorite and could be too much Diaz down the stretch, but Cruz can be hurt and outboxed by Diaz imo

bl

 

[Flipper13]

I've seen Santa Cruz get his ass kicked before.

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Rahman-Maskaev

Rahman-Maskaev

Rahman weighed in at 235 which is perfect for him and I know he trained hard for this one. Maskaev at 238 is a little heavier than his last few but he's still in top shape.

When these guys fought 7 years ago, Rahman was up 70-63/68-65/68-65 before he got overconfident and caught in the 8th round. Rahman is a Top Rank fighter who is hosting this event in LV where Arum has plenty of pull. Given the scores of the first fight and the influence here, I think Rahman wins if it goes to the cards.

So the fight comes down to who has the better chin, both guys have power so it all depends on who can take others shot. I'm almost positive that Rahman's chin will hold up this time, and Maskaev with his glass jaw is in serious trouble.

Just look at what has happened since these guys last fought. Rahman has gone the distance with Toney, Ruiz, and Tua. He took plenty of good shots from C. Sanders and L. Lewis before knocking them both out. The only time Rahman has been stopped since Oleg was by Lewis who was on a mission that night, no one could take those right hands.

Now lets look at Maskaev's chin, I recall reading an interview where Oleg said he was getting hurt by Rahman's punches prior to stopping him. Sounds like he knew he was about to be stopped so he went for the KO and got lucky. Just look at Oleg's losses since the Rahman fight, stopped by K. Johnson in the 4th round, stopped by Goofi Whitaker in the 2nd round, stopped by C. Sanders in the 8th round, the other C. Sanders who's fat and horrible. I didn't see the fights, but I read that Oleg was even hurt a few times by Sam and Defiagon in his last few outings. I think he's in big trouble tonight.


I played and posted Maskaev +298 and +250, also have Maskaev +16.5 points +137. All of which was based on value with full intensions of hedging or scalping later. If Rahman weighed in at 250, I'd be letting it ride, at 235 I know what to expect. With Rahman still -225 at Bet365 the time is now...

gl bl

 

[BOXLOCKS]

I've seen Santa Cruz get his ass kicked before.

Cruz is getting better, the fact that he beat Cherry proves it, but he's still very hurtable. Diaz is a southpaw, maybe Cruz won't have an answer for the straight left hand. Its worth a small shot at +425 imo

I'm riding along with the Hella on this one, completely agree with his take and the odds are nice. Personal play only

gl bl

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Adding


Rahman over Maskaev -225...lay .90 to win .40


gl bl

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Adding a little more

Final play on Rahman -225...lay 1.55 to win .70


gl bl

 

[THE KOD]

I hate when you do that hedging.

Feels like backing down on a play and I aint for that.

Toney, Ruiz, and Tua couldn;t knock franky out in 12 rounds. And Rahman can't take them has beens out with a KO ? Rahman is washed out.

Oleg can hit. He will have Rahman in front of him after Rahman loses his mind and quits boxing.

Oleg been there before. Rahman does not look right to me.

Down goes Rahman ! Down goes Rahman !

 

[BOXLOCKS]

When I posted Maskaev +298...I said the line was too high and it would set up a nice scalp later

When I posted Maskaev +250...I ssaid the line was still too high and it would set up a decent scalp later

I was right on both accounts and now my loyal tailers have an opportunity to make some free cash tonight



As posted many times, my final play on this fight will be dictated by Rahman's weight and conditioning...both are excellent...Maskaev better bring his A game and a much better chin to this one


Btw, hedging and scalping can be very profitable in boxing if done correctly. I always post my intensions on every play I recommend


gl bl

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Btw, I usualy don't post plays that I intend on scalping or hedging down the road. I play and scalp several fights a week for a decent profit but I don't post them.

I posted Baldomir +400 and inside distance +630 with full intensions of letting it ride, untill Gatti dropped to -165 setting up plenty of free cash.

I posted Maskaev +298, +250, and +16.5 points +137...knowing that if Rahman weighed in at 250 and didn't train properly I would let them ride at great prices. But I knew the line would drop big time and that if Rahman was at 100% I could always scalp...and he did.


gl bl

 

[THE KOD]

I am not questioning your posts, judgement, or free money plays.

its just not the way I do things.

Gl and go Oleg you russian communist brute.

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Boxing is one of the few sports where scalping and hedging can make enough profit to be worth the time and effort

gl bl

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Santa Cruz versus Diaz.
Ok, this battle will be bombs and grenades big time and both fighters will be on the canvas. Santa Cruz will likely win, but the odds on this combat is ridiculous. Santa Cruz was hurt several times by Edner Cherry and I don't rule out Diaz stopping Cruz. I slightly favour Margarito wannabe Cruz, but just slightly. Anyway, the fight will be short.

Santa Cruz-Diaz Under 10,5 -127, I'll play it big
Diaz Over Cruz +427, I'll play it small

Very Nice

Diaz stopped Santa Cruz in the 10th, glad I tailed you on that +425 winner...thanks

No beginners luck there fellas, Hella is the real deal


Great call and congats

bl

 

[lvlarc_uk]

Very lucky on Diaz...he was getting dominated throughout.

 

[amhlilhaus]

I guess the rahman fight is next, I hope my +450 dec prop comes in, either way it looks like a good night all round.

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Unbelievable

Maskaev stopped Rahman in the 12 round

If Rahman holds on to the final bell, he wins easily and I would've hit my middle

Oh well...had plenty on Maskaev

gl bl

 

[amhlilhaus]

yeah, it happens with fighters, would have cashed my bet I'm sure. oh well.

 

[lvlarc_uk]

If the final bell went, Maskaev would of won it anway with the final 10-6 round.

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Wow, the judges actually scored it objectively, Maskaev would've won even if he didn't hurt Rahman in the 12th. I figured with the Arum influence it would go to Rahman if it was halfway close.

 

[amhlilhaus]

Wow, the judges actually scored it objectively, Maskaev would've won even if he didn't hurt Rahman in the 12th. I figured with the Arum influence it would go to Rahman if it was halfway close.

I'm with you, saw the reports and would have lost either way, anyways oleg will be fed to klitschko probably next year, unless they get him a payday or two.

owen beck anyone?