Opening the vault . . .
I've had a scowl from the early moments on Thursday when I realized I fumbled a play on Steve Webster, and not having an account at Befair meant that I would have no opportunity for redemption. I mean no matter what the outcome is on Sunday, this was hands down the most egregious mistake I've made (on so many levels) in the three seasons I've been capping golf. I've been wanting to make amends, but that's not really possible, so I settled on letting off some steam by working on a contribution to the forum instead. This is what I came up with while watching the scores come in on Friday.
If I make the time to follow an event closely, I usually make a good number of $7, $5, $3, and $12 matchup type plays during the course of the proceeding - for a wide variety of reasons, but never just to make things interesting. On the other hand, I usually start the week with only a few outright bets of $3, $1.50, and $5 (e.w.) that are unposted. Not many small parlays yet this year of either type. This week has been typical in my quantity of both such types of plays, while above-average in terms of time spent following the proceedings. From my vault of unsettled bets:
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1 15/02/2004 ACE Group Classic
(To Win Outright) Lonnie Nielsen
+10000 4 places 1/4 odds To Run
Unit Risk: 5.00 EW Risk: 10.00 Returns:
1 15/02/2004 Buick Invitational
(To Win Outright) Stewart Cink
+8000 5 places 1/4 odds To Run
Unit Risk: 5.00 EW Risk: 10.00 Returns:
3 15/02/2004 ANZ Championship
(To Win Outright) Steve Webster
+10000 5 places 1/4 odds To Run
Unit Risk: 1.50 EW Risk: 3.00 Returns:
1 15/02/2004 Buick Invitational
(To Win Outright) Steve Flesch
+8000 5 places 1/4 odds To Run
Unit Risk: 2.50 EW Risk: 5.00 Returns:
2 15/02/2004 Buick Invitational
(To Win Outright) Heath Slocum
+12500 5 places 1/4 odds To Run
Unit Risk: 1.50 EW Risk: 3.00 Returns:
3 15/02/2004 Buick Invitational
(To Win Outright) Charles Howell
+4000 5 places 1/4 odds To Run
Unit Risk: 2.00 EW Risk: 4.00 Returns:
4 15/02/2004 Buick Invitational
(To Win Outright) Harrison Frazar
+10000 5 places 1/4 odds Void
Unit Risk: 1.50 EW Risk: 3.00 Returns: 3.00
1 15/02/2004 Buick Invitational
(Outright Winner) Stewart Cink
+4000 4 places 1/4 odds To Run
Unit Risk: 2.00 EW Risk: 4.00 Returns:
FXXXXX 02/12/04 F A N Z Championship - Steve Webster 20/1 $1.50 $30.00
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That is almost my entire vault of previously unposted outright plays for this week (no way it usually looks that interesting when I open it up for review on a Saturday morning), and I need to post those Cink plays to make my point at the end of this post, but bear with me while I make a couple of extraneous comments: (1) The info in this link is interesting in the way it demonstrates how close Webster was to something special without realizing how to get at it (
http://www.europeantour.com/tournaments/fullreport.sps?iTourNo=2004006&id=1094691&iTourID=1)( I'll emphasize the words, "hitting the ball really well AGAIN"); (2) Lonnie Nielsen has always been a tremendous player, and while winning quickly would be something very special, I think it would come as no surprise to many of his peers if Nielsen hits the ground running and shows his pedigree in a senior career to rival the likes of Jay Sigel (or not); (3) If I didn't already have money on Cink at 80/1, I would have pounded him pretty good on Friday morning at 40/1, and though I can't say for sure, it's likely I would have posted the play in addition to the Jesper Parnevik(10/1) play I did post, and possibly in lieu of the Parnevik play. But I still like Parnevik, and I foresee using him rather than opposing him if I pull the trigger on any plays involving Parnevik this weekend; and (4) If it comes without the pressure of contending, a slot in the field of 64 at the Accenture Match Play can produce a solid Sunday for the likes of Waldorf (No. 67), and I've already had my $5 eye on him in matchups this week, and Briny Baird (No. 63) may have to deliver.
O.K. Inviting the kiss of death by listing each of the above plays is looking like it could work out as a huge contribution to some of the pending wagers on the forum, but I have a different objective in mind. And believe it or not, that objective and my point can be summed up in two words:
BUTCH HARMON.
This is the list I have compiled of players that have a student relationship with Butch Harmon in a serious quest to do the right things and whatever is necessary:
- Stewart Cink
- Adam Scott
- Fred Couples
- Steve Flesch
- Corey Pavin
- Darren Clarke
- Ben Crane
- Mathias Gronberg
- Justin Leonard
- Jean Van de Velde
- Kevin Na
- Jose Maria Olazabal
- Tom Purtzer
- (Mark Calcavecchia, Natalie Gulbis, John Schroeder, Greg Kraft, Chris Patton, and a few other names I've scribbled in my notes and can't locate. I would be interested to know if anyone can add to, expand upon, or correct any errors in my list.)
And he was good enough for Earl Woods. (Another extraneous aside: During the 2003 Tour Championship, Butch had some observations on flaws creeping into Tiger's game that were spot on, and since the end of the football season I have been meaning to make the time to transcribe them from my VCR tape as being well worth posting. I will get that done.)
A few weeks ago, I saw a replay of a Golf Academy episode with Butch Harmon on The Golf Channel, and there were segments comparing the old and new swings of his various students. HANDS DOWN, Stewart Cink took first prize for a transformation from night to day. Tom Weiskopf would be jealous of the swing I saw that night, and it was hard for Butch not to gush.
This is probably a good time to mention that for weeks, their have been names on that list of students that have stood out from the crowd, on Thursdays, Fridays, Saturdays and Sundays, when it comes to closing out a round over the final three, six or nine holes. That's no good.
And before concluding, I'll note the obvious that there are a good number of other veteran professionals that are not working with Butch Harmon that are showing well based a renewed commitment to excellence - Phil Mickelson, Jesper Parnevik, Steve Webster, and Tom Lehman come first to mind. As Parnevik noted on Thursday, in this game you never know when the hard work is going to pay off, but it's sure a lot of fun to see the results when they start arriving.
IMO, Cink has been headed for an inevitable emergence, and I wish I had been all over it this week. Some sharp play from Cink this weekend should come as lot less of a surprise than a blown gasket. And without having any numbers as evidence, I suspect without really knowing that a change of course is better than staying at the same course when you are trying to answer after an exceptionally low round.
So what's the point, and what are my wagers:
A. Everything runs its course, and I found spots to oppose both Clarke and Pavin on Friday. But that list of students has been a profitable source of information to this point in the season, and you might keep a close eye on the progress being made by any professional that is under Butch Harmon's wing.
B. Adam Scott(50/1 e.w.) at Augusta @ Bet365. He drips class. A win in 2004 would be ahead of the curve, and I'll be looking for a better offer in matchups or one of the specialty markets (i.e. Top Australian), but that price is a good bit too high right now.
C. Stewart Cink(66/1 e.w.) in the U.S. Open @ Bet 365. Every year (2002 and 2003
) in the Masters, I've had more than one play that I really, really liked, and my enthusiasm proved justified. In the other three majors, the single play in two years I felt as strong about as my Masters picks was Mickelson(20/1) at Bethpage. Other than that, nothing that got me really excited, and it's speaking mildly to say I have had corresponding results. There is a lot of golf to be played from here to June, and you want the scenario to play out just right, but Cink(66/1) is looking strong as finally being pick No. 2 that I really like in one of the majors other than the Masters.
D. Thomas Bjorn(50/1 e.w.) in the British Open @ Bet365. If he doesn't "pop early". Or 66/1 at Victor Chandler. I would also take some Jesper Parnevik at 66/1 if I could get it.
E. Thomas Bjorn(80/1 e.w.) in the P.G.A. @ Bet365. On a tumultuous brute of a course that I really don't know enough about to properly size up, that didn't seem to shabby.
GL
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Don't believe everything you think.
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