Byron Nelson Classic

[lostinamerica]

Matchups and Groups @ 1*:

Garcia (+185) over Woods (72 holes) @ 5dimes
Thought better of it after considering opposing Woods twice with full unit plays (was also considering Garcia @ +155 for 1st round). Nicklaus once said, "The Grand Slam was my goal at the start of every year. I always felt my year was over when I didn't win at Augusta." Coming off an extended layoff and an all consuming victory, even the peerless Woods with his immaculate capabilities is somewhat susceptible to being revved a gear or two below full grind. Regardless of his putting, this wager likely requires some wayward driving from Woods.

DiMarco(+100) over Singh (1st round) @ 5dimes
DiMarco appeared to me to have regained some of his swagger last week, and he has the knack for quick starts. With Singh, the question after DTB's post appears to be deciding between "beware the ailing golfer" vs. spots of rust on the always finely finished Singh. Singh's frequently suspect putting has me willing to pull the trigger here.

Bjorn(-123) over Daly (72 holes - B&H) @ Bet365
For a good number of weeks, the immensely popular Daly has not hidden the signs that he has been headed in the wrong direction.

Price(+110) over Duval (72 holes) @ 5dimes
With the exception of my wager, there is scant evidence to indicate that Duval is primed to mount a counteroffensive to what has been his virtually indefensible campaign to this point.

----------------------- ---------------------------- ----------------------------

Last Wednesday and Thursday I was messing around and "covered the board" by selecting 7 nicely priced matchups at 5dimes that caught my eye and parlaying them in groups of 3 and 4, and came within one rout (Els @ +100 over Mickelson) of winning over $500 on $36 worth of $3 bets.; as it was, I managed to break even with a single winner. The wagers also kept me better focused on a large number of players in a deliberate strategy of building a better feel for the field after some inattention during a two week vacation in Phoenix. It was well worth the $36, and rates some further messing around.

Parlays using these 72 hole matchups @ 5dimes:
A. Garcia(+185) over Woods
B. Price (+110) over Duval
C. Bjorn(-123) over Daly
D. Estes(-120) over Calcavechia
E. Maruyama(-120) over Flesch
F. McGinley(-128) over Woosnam
G. Langer(+103) over Montgomerie
H. Ames(+125) over McCarron
A/B/C/D; E/F/G/H; C/F/G; A/B/H; B/C/F; A/D/H; A/C/E

Parlays using these 1st round 3 balls @ Bet365:
A. Toms(6/4) over Mickelson/Pernice
B. Love(5/4) over Verplank/Carter
C. Gossett(7/4) over Perks/Pavin
D. Durant(6/4) over O'Meara/Jones
E. Andrade(13/5) over Woods/Lickliter
F. Janzen (2/1) over Maggert/Duval
A/B/C; D/E/F; A/C/E; B/C/D; A/B/F

GL

 

[steved]

Not sure about Elliott's law of Sports.Com..what I do know is that whatever place terms you take, 'sod's law of place betting' decrees your player will finish one place lower than you need him to finish to collect...

 

[bettingmad]

Re Sports.com place terms...
I never put equal amounts on the win and place.... I always have more on the win as when I back a player I always expect them to win... the smaller part on the place is only there in case something goes unexpectedly wrong.... so it's 1/4 lst 4 price for the win and the place goes on the 5th lst 5. I also like to do the occasional across the pond doubles - those again are more win and a smaller place at 1/5 lst 5 - I think you have to go lst 5 on the doubles in particular as more cash is involved on the returns.

 

[Stanley]

LOL!

Yes, Sod's/Murph's Law is definitely the most universal law in golf betting!

But closely followed by the 'Law of MadJacks' ... back any decent-priced PGA Tour selection the week afterwards :shrug:

Could it be why Jack is so mad?

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

I'll second the murphy's law Stan
here is interesting artice on Duval,however i think his demise go back to Fiance dumping him as he has not been the same player since.++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
IRVING, Texas -- David Duval skipped the pro-am Wednesday at the Verizon Bryon Nelson Classic to have an MRI exam on his right shoulder, which has bothered him since he fell awkwardly while snowboarding in January.

"I just wanted to make sure nothing was there," Duval told The Associated Press upon his return from a Birmingham, Ala., clinic. "They checked it out. I had some inflammation, but it's no big deal."

He expects to play Thursday for the first time since missing the cut in The Masters.

Duval was reluctant to discuss the injury or what kind of impact it has had on his game, saying he was tired of talking about injuries that have plagued him since 2000, when he missed 10 weeks because of a bad back.

He said the pain in his shoulder has not affected his swing as much as it has other activities, such as working out. Still, he conceded he has not been at 100 percent strength the last four months, and his game has suffered.

Duval, who has won 13 times on the PGA TOUR and won the British Open last year for his first major championship, is off to his worse start in eight years on TOUR.

In nine tournaments, he has missed the cut twice and had to withdraw from the Nissan Open in Los Angeles with food poisoning. His best finish was 12th place at the season-opening Mercedes Championship. He has dropped to No. 6 in the world, and is 100th on the PGA TOUR money list.

The biggest disappointment was The Masters, where he had been in back-nine contention Sunday the past four years.

He refused to attribute the missed cut to his shoulder.

"No one-putts the second day, that's what caused me to miss the cut," Duval said.

Duval said only that he "fell funny" while snowboarding in Sun Valley, Idaho. Along with the shoulder injury, he ended an eight-year relationship with his fiancee in late January, and has been moving into a new house in Ponte Vedra Beach, Fla.

"Have all these things hindered my play? It probably has," he said. "I just don't want to make any excuses. I just haven't gotten the ball in the hole very quick. I don't have any good answers. As much as anything, life has happened to me the last couple of years, the kind of things everybody deals with.

"That's why I don't want to make it a big deal."

Duval is the only other player besides Tiger Woods to be ranked No. 1 in the world over the past four years, rising to the top by winning 11 of 34 tournaments from late 1997 through the spring of 1999.

 

[Svengali]

Away from computer all week so have been unable to post any in the European tour (Little/Faldo definitely looks worth all 4 points though Stanley!). Scant going around in the States this week though and will only have one play -

Singh to beat Duval (20/23) with Bet 365.uk - 3 points
I am going to unusually take this as a matchup rather than a match bet as due to a book anomally which favours the matchup. Duval's performance this week will be interesting following the much noted season to date and I can't see any reason to see a turn around. Vijay has had only been outside the top 30 four times since October and should put in a solid display.

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

odd that Oly has taken matches down involving duval??Don't know if its just me but can't can't get weather channel to load,in case its from there end here is local report,however does not include projected wind.
Dallas/Fort-Worth, TX

Dallas/Fort-Worth, TX
Currently: P/CLOUDY
Temperature: 74?F
RealFeel Temp: 74?F
Humidity: 87%
Visibility: 10 mi.
Winds: S 16 mph
Pressure: 29.80

adding some plays
72 holes
Toms +115 over Dimarco @ Cascade
I do not understand this line,but cascade does not throw up many clinkers,so I may be missing something.

1st rd
Garcia +150 over Tiger @ $plays (+155 @ 5dimes)
Will give it a try in rd Tiger has been most vunerable.Sergio is playing in group right behind Tiger and usually plays well when competative juices flow.I opted play @ reduced odds @ $plays solely because is has been very "lucky" book

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Anyone have course differentials so I don't have to do them hard way in am?

 

[nomad]

	Sub Par	Avg. SubTotal Avg.
CV	38	-2.7	70.1
TPC	40	-2.5	69.6

Pos.	Rnd 1	Rnd 2			
T1	CV	TPC	Joe Durant	-7	63
T1	TPC	CV	Bryce Molder	-7	63
T3	CV	TPC	Esteban Toledo	-6	64
T3	CV	TPC	Frank Lickliter II-6	64
T3	CV	TPC	Lee Janzen	-6	64
T3	TPC	CV	David Gossett	-6	64
T3	TPC	CV	Nick Price	-6	64
T8	CV	TPC	Tom Scherrer	-5	65
T8	TPC	CV	Jim Carter	-5	65
T8	TPC	CV	Per-Ulrik Johansson-5	65
T8	TPC	CV	Steve Flesch	-5	65
T12	CV	TPC	Craig Barlow	-4	66
T12	CV	TPC	David Duval	-4	66
T12	CV	TPC	Deane Pappas	-4	66
T12	CV	TPC	Jeff Maggert	-4	66
T12	CV	TPC	Jonathan Byrd	-4	66
T12	CV	TPC	Michael Connell	-4	66
T12	CV	TPC	Tom Pernice, Jr.-4	66
T12	TPC	CV	David Frost	-4	66
T12	TPC	CV	Jay Williamson	-4	66
T12	TPC	CV	John Riegger	-4	66
T22	CV	TPC	Brian Henninger	-3	67
T22	CV	TPC	Fred Funk	-3	67
T22	CV	TPC	Joel Edwards	-3	67
T22	CV	TPC	Jonathan Kaye	-3	67
T22	CV	TPC	Loren Roberts	-3	67
T22	CV	TPC	Shigeki Maruyama-3	67
T22	TPC	CV	Billy Mayfair	-3	67
T22	TPC	CV	Bob Estes	-3	67
T22	TPC	CV	Brett Wetterich	-3	67
T22	TPC	CV	Greg Chalmers	-3	67
T22	TPC	CV	Justin Leonard	-3	67
T22	TPC	CV	Paul Stankowski	-3	67
T34	CV	TPC	Billy Andrade	-2	68
T34	CV	TPC	David Toms	-2	68
T34	CV	TPC	Franklin Langham-2	68
T34	CV	TPC	JC Anderson	-2	68
T34	CV	TPC	Kenneth Staton	-2	68
T34	CV	TPC	Mike Sposa	-2	68
T34	CV	TPC	Steve Lowery	-2	68
T34	TPC	CV	Ben Crane	-2	68
T34	TPC	CV	Brian Gay	-2	68
T34	TPC	CV	Craig Perks	-2	68
T34	TPC	CV	Dan Forsman	-2	68
T34	TPC	CV	Dudley Hart	-2	68
T34	TPC	CV	Garrett Willis	-2	68
T34	TPC	CV	Jamie Elliott	-2	68
T34	TPC	CV	John Huston	-2	68
T34	TPC	CV	Len Mattiace	-2	68
T34	TPC	CV	Phil Tataurangi	-2	68
T34	TPC	CV	Rich Beem	-2	68
T34	TPC	CV	Scott Verplank	-2	68
T53	CV	TPC	Bob Tway	-1	69
T53	CV	TPC	Brandel Chamblee-1	69
T53	CV	TPC	Brandt Jobe	-1	69
T53	CV	TPC	Brian Bateman	-1	69
T53	CV	TPC	Chris DiMarco	-1	69
T53	CV	TPC	J.P. Hayes	-1	69
T53	CV	TPC	Kirk Triplett	-1	69
T53	CV	TPC	Peter Lonard	-1	69
T53	CV	TPC	Phil Mickelson	-1	69
T53	CV	TPC	Rod Pampling	-1	69
T53	CV	TPC	Sergio Garcia	-1	69
T53	CV	TPC	Steve Stricker	-1	69
T53	CV	TPC	Vijay Singh	-1	69
T53	TPC	CV	Andrew Magee	-1	69
T53	TPC	CV	Brent Geiberger	-1	69
T53	TPC	CV	Chad Campbell	-1	69
T53	TPC	CV	Corey Pavin	-1	69
T53	TPC	CV	Ernie Els	-1	69
T53	TPC	CV	Glen Day	-1	69
T53	TPC	CV	Jeff Sluman	-1	69
T53	TPC	CV	John Rollins	-1	69
T53	TPC	CV	Kenny Perry	-1	69
T53	TPC	CV	Luke Donald	-1	69
T53	TPC	CV	Michael Allen	-1	69
T53	TPC	CV	Robert Allenby	-1	69
T53	TPC	CV	Tommy Armour III-1	69
T79	CV	TPC	Brad Elder	E	70
T79	CV	TPC	Cameron Beckman	E	70
T79	CV	TPC	Carl Paulson	E	70
T79	CV	TPC	Geoff Ogilvy	E	70
T79	CV	TPC	John Cook	E	70
T79	CV	TPC	Olin Browne	E	70
T79	CV	TPC	Paul Gow	E	70
T79	CV	TPC	Russ Cochran	E	70
T79	CV	TPC	Scott Dunlap	E	70
T79	CV	TPC	Tim Clark	E	70
T79	TPC	CV	Fulton Allem	E	70
T79	TPC	CV	Grant Waite	E	70
T79	TPC	CV	Harrison Frazar	E	70
T79	TPC	CV	K.J. Choi	E	70
T79	TPC	CV	Scott McCarron	E	70
T79	TPC	CV	Stephen Ames	E	70
T79	TPC	CV	Tom Byrum	E	70
T96	CV	TPC	J.J. Henry	1	71
T96	CV	TPC	Jesper Parnevik	1	71
T96	CV	TPC	Lee Porter	1	71
T96	CV	TPC	Mark Brooks	1	71
T96	CV	TPC	Matt Gogel	1	71
T96	CV	TPC	Michael Muehr	1	71
T96	CV	TPC	Neal Lancaster	1	71
T96	CV	TPC	Tiger Woods	1	71
T96	CV	TPC	Woody Austin	1	71
T96	TPC	CV	Bob Burns	1	71
T96	TPC	CV	Chris Smith	1	71
T96	TPC	CV	Craig Stadler	1	71
T96	TPC	CV	D.A. Weibring	1	71
T96	TPC	CV	David Peoples	1	71
T96	TPC	CV	Davis Love III	1	71
T96	TPC	CV	Duffy Waldorf	1	71
T96	TPC	CV	Heath Slocum	1	71
T96	TPC	CV	Hidemichi Tanaka1	71
T96	TPC	CV	J.L. Lewis	1	71
T96	TPC	CV	Jim Furyk	1	71
T96	TPC	CV	Jose Coceres	1	71
T96	TPC	CV	Notah Begay III	1	71
T96	TPC	CV	Scott Simpson	1	71
T119	CV	TPC	Joe Ogilvie	2	72
T119	CV	TPC	John Senden	2	72
T119	CV	TPC	Steve Jones	2	72
T119	CV	TPC	Tim Petrovic	2	72
T119	TPC	CV	Brian Watts	2	72
T119	TPC	CV	Charles Howell III2	72
T119	TPC	CV	Jay Don Blake	2	72
T119	TPC	CV	Robert Damron	2	72
T127	CV	TPC	Hal Sutton	3	73
T127	CV	TPC	Jeff Brehaut	3	73
T127	CV	TPC	Jerry Smith	3	73
T127	CV	TPC	Mark O'Meara	3	73
T127	CV	TPC	Pat Perez	3	73
T127	TPC	CV	Craig Parry	3	73
T127	TPC	CV	Frank Nobilo	3	73
T127	TPC	CV	Mark Calcavecchia3	73
T127	TPC	CV	Pat Bates	3	73
T127	TPC	CV	Rory Sabbatini	3	73
T127	TPC	CV	Tim Herron	3	73
T138	CV	TPC	Danny Ellis	4	74
T138	CV	TPC	Kent Jones	4	74
T138	CV	TPC	Troy Schleicher	4	74
T138	TPC	CV	Shaun Micheel	4	74
T142	CV	TPC	Greg Kraft	5	75
T142	CV	TPC	Mike Weir	5	75
T142	CV	TPC	Paul Earnest	5	75
T142	TPC	CV	Cameron Doan	5	75
T142	TPC	CV	Larry Mize	5	75
T142	TPC	CV	Michael Clark II5	75
T148	CV	TPC	David Berganio, Jr.6	76
T148	CV	TPC	Glen Hnatiuk	6	76
T148	CV	TPC	Steve Allan	6	76
T148	TPC	CV	Edward Fryatt	6	76
T148	TPC	CV	Kelsey Cline	6	76
153	CV	TPC	Landry Mahan	7	77
154	CV	TPC	Mark Wiebe	12	82
155	CV	TPC	Billy Ray Brown	13	83

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Thank You Nomad.I was hoping you were out there.Saved me mucho time.

1st rd results 1-0
Sergio +150 over Tiger

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

raining there now but projected to quit by 9am.Should give early times big adv as wind to pick up later.

2nd rd.
Toms -105 over Duval @ $plays
Mick +135 over Tiger @ 5dimes
Huston -105 over Choi @ 5dimes
Durant -125 over Scherrer @ 5dimes

Mick has 2 hr adv in tee times on Tiger.Soft greens should be tracked up by time Tiger hits course,plus 2nd rd not Tigs best and he sholud have it in conservative mode as believe pressure on him to keep cut streak alive may be greater than winning.

 

[lostinamerica]

72 hole Matchup for 1* @ Olympic:

Mickelson(-130) over Singh
The precarious perch on the cut line be damned. I'm looking for Mickelson's best driving of his career to sustain his recent form and carry us the distance. A two hour advantage in tee times may also help. Singh answered the bell by hitting 14% of his fairways, taking 30 putts and losing steam over the last 7 holes.

GL

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

at the cut: 2rd rd 4-0 72 holes 3-2

2nd rd.
Toms -105 over Duval win by 2
Mick +135 over Tiger win by 1
Huston -105 over Choi win by 4
Durant -125 over Scherrer win by 1

72holes
Price +105 over Duval 1 up
Price +120 over Els 4up
Parny -110 over Mattice (Double Play)1 down
Lonard -120 over Rollins 1down
Verplank -110 over leonard 3down
Singh -115 vs Duval Loss by 4
Maruyama-115 vs Choi win by 10
Estes-115 vs Calc win by 8
Dimarco-115 vs Furyk win by 7
Toms +115 over Dimarco 1 up

2 bully matches @WSEX (1 player vs 2 for 72 holes)
Woods -110 vs Garcia & Mick 3 down
Singh -120vs Perry & Hart loss by 2

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

couple this evening
Durant -108 over Rollins @ 5dimes
Toms +100 over Price Oly cont currently 1 down

Back in am

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

no place outrights to add @ oly as they are basically dead via odds and positions,however could be some wild swings with 20+mph winds projected when leaders tee off.

adding 72 hole cont @ Oly
Verplank -110 vs Hart currently 1 down
simply the better player
Estes -115 vs Funk currently all square
Better player and winds shoundn't bother this texas native

3rd rd play @ $plays
Maruyama+105 vs Stankowski
Don't understand this line.HATE backing leader but Maru been VERY solid since last rd of Masters and Stank-------

If not for my dismal record on double plays would consider Estes in cont.@ Oly as double material

 

[bettingmad]

Mid point update:
Shocked at Garcia's missed cut.. didn't see that one coming.

Justin Leonard continuing his usual consistent Texas form... he needs something a bit more special today. Took 40 at the start but added some 50 at betfair after his slow lst round start.. then covered the stakes by selling some 19 & 20. This betfair is good stuff!

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

adding
Since I have Price in several positions and Murph has not treated me well in that position previously I will scalp the previous
Price +105 over Duval with
Duval +115 over Price in Oly 72 hole cont.

 

[Stanley]

Mid-point update:

Weir/Calcavecchia LOST by 5
Singh/Els LOST by 1

Garcia mc
Toms 25th
Love 60th

Ouch! Five selections and three miss the cut. Admittedly Calc missed the cut as well, but there were only six players who finished behind Weir. Little unfortunate with the Singh/Els matchup as Els made the cut on the line and Singh missed it by one. Looks like interest remains only with David Toms this weekend - he is only six shots behind the current leader.

 

[lostinamerica]

Saturday Matchups @ 1*:

Leonard(-115) over Duval (72 holes) @ Olympic
The Saturday pairings with and directly behind Woods made me pause, but then I arrived where I started. Duval bringing it is not my vision here.

Stankowski(-105) over Janzen (3rd round) @ 5dimes
Janzen is plugging his way well, but is a windswept weekend what the doctor ordered?

Molder(+100) over Stricker (3rd round) @ 5dimes
Molder seems in the moment, and that rates large when I think I see it.

GL

 

[bettingmad]

Earlier today bet365 were only offering 1/4 1-2-3 on their site. I emailed them and suggested this should be 1/4 1-2-3 AND 4. They replied, agreed and said it would be changed. If anyone placed a bet with them early doors.... if your player finishes 4th... make sure you get paid.