Cnotes 2018 - 2019 NBA Thru The Playoffs-Picks/Trends/News !

[Cnotes53]

519Golden State -520 Houston
GOLDEN STATE is 16-32 ATS (-19.2 Units) after failing to cover 4 of their last 5 against the spread in the last 3 seasons.


NBA
Dunkel

Friday, May 10


Golden State @ Houston

Game 519-520
May 10, 2019 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Golden State
126.303
Houston
126.620
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Golden State
Even
232
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Houston
by 7 1/2
213
Dunkel Pick:
Golden State
(+7 1/2); Over


NBA
Long Sheet

Friday, May 10

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GOLDEN STATE (64 - 29) at HOUSTON (59 - 33) - 5/10/2019, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GOLDEN STATE is 39-53 ATS (-19.3 Units) in all games this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 7-15 ATS (-9.5 Units) against Southwest division opponents this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 49-66 ATS (-23.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 31-48 ATS (-21.8 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 16-27 ATS (-13.7 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 32-42 ATS (-14.2 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season.
HOUSTON is 27-17 ATS (+8.3 Units) in home games this season.
HOUSTON is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) in home games revenging a loss vs opponent this season.
HOUSTON is 30-18 ATS (+10.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
HOUSTON is 42-27 ATS (+12.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 13-9 against the spread versus GOLDEN STATE over the last 3 seasons
GOLDEN STATE is 12-11 straight up against HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
15 of 23 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NBA
Armadillo's Write-Up

Friday, May 10

Home side won all five Houston-Golden State games; Durant is out for Game 6 and Warriors? approach figures to change. Will they revert to taking ton of 3?s? Golden State took 11 3?s in 4th quarter of Game 5. 7.5 points is most Warriors have gotten under Kerr, with Curry in lineup. Golden State lost three of last four visits to Houston (1-3 vs spread). Under is 4-2-1 in last seven series games. Harden took only three shots in 4th quarter Wednesday. Rockets? bench was -37 in 47:42 in Game 5; Warriors? bench took only seven shots but were +3. Curry is 9-34 from arc in last three games; does his injured left hand prevent him from driving that way? Over is 6-3-1 in Golden State?s last ten games, 3-7-1 in Houston?s last 11.


NBA

Friday, May 10

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Trend Report
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Golden State Warriors
Golden State is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Golden State is 13-5 SU in its last 18 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Golden State's last 7 games
Golden State is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
Golden State is 17-8 SU in its last 25 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Golden State's last 6 games on the road
Golden State is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Houston
Golden State is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Golden State's last 14 games when playing Houston
Golden State is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Houston
Golden State is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Golden State's last 14 games when playing on the road against Houston
Houston Rockets
Houston is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Houston is 17-7 SU in its last 24 games
Houston is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Golden State
Houston is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Golden State
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Houston's last 14 games when playing Golden State
Houston is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Golden State
Houston is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Golden State
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Houston's last 14 games when playing at home against Golden State


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[Cnotes53]

Game 6 - Warriors at Rockets
Chris David

Western Conference Semifinals ? Game 6 (Warriors lead 3-2)

Golden State at Houston (ESPN, 9:00 p.m. ET)

The NBA Playoffs will have at least two Game 7?s on tap this Sunday and if Houston can avoid elimination tonight to Golden State, then bettors will be looking at three decisive matchups over the weekend.

The Warriors took a 3-2 lead in this series after capturing a 104-99 win in Game 5 on Wednesday but that victory turned out to be bitter sweet for the two-time defending champions.

The club lost All-Star Kevin Durant to a calf injury late in the third quarter and it was announced yesterday that he?ll miss tonight?s game and a possible Game 7 on Sunday as well. Durant has been out of this world in the playoffs, averaging 34.2 points per game, 5.2 rebounds and 4.9 assists while shooting 51 percent from the field, 42 percent from 3-point land and 90 percent from the free-throw stripe. In a nutshell, he?s been unstoppable.

NBA expert Tony Mejia considers the diagnosis of a calf strain instead of something far more significant a fabulous break for Kevin Durant and anyone holding a Warriors? ticket on any futures. Although the Eastern Conference champ would be a major obstacle to overcome without Durant?s length, Golden State?s familiarity with its West foes should aid its cause in buying the two-time Finals MVP time to recover.

?The Warriors won?t win a championship without Durant but can get out of the Western Conference without him if they can get out of this series,? Mejia said. ?Golden State won three of four games without him during the regular season, losing only in Orlando (96-103) on Feb. 28 after blowing a double-digit fourth-quarter lead. The Dubs scored just 15 points against the Magic over the final 12 minutes as they fell victim to Orlando?s length, but they defeated the Rockets (106-104) and Thunder (110-88) without Durant in March and obviously thrived and survived a crucial fourth quarter without him on Wednesday.?

?DeMarcus Cousins scored 27 points and hit 11 of 16 shots in imposing his will in that win over Houston, so the Warriors won?t be able to follow the same blueprint without Durant, but Klay Thompson scored 30 in that win and must factor heavily in stealing a Game 6 in Houston or surviving an elimination game back at Oracle on Sunday. Thompson is going to face a heavy workload as one of the primary defenders on Harden in addition to a larger load on the offensive end, so it?s vital that he stay out of foul trouble and engaged.?

?Even though Stephen Curry has shot just 26 percent from 3-point range (15-for-57) in this series, a more defined role as the catalyst makes him worth backing in any individual player props involving his scoring total,? Mejia said. ?His high for this postseason is 38 points, attained back in Game 1 of the first round against the Clippers, but I wouldn?t be surprised if he posts only his second 40-point game since February if he can get it going early.?

As Mejia mentioned, the 3-1 record without Durant in the regular season was produced on the road and the unlikely win over Houston was impressive. Cousins not only went for 27 but he added eight rebounds and seven assists too while the ?Splash Brothers? (Curry & Thompson) combined for 54 in the win. Since Cousins was lost in the first round of this year?s playoffs, it makes you wonder who could possibly step up for the Warriors on Friday without the big man and KD.

Under the assumption that KD was ?doubtful? for Game 6, the oddsmakers opened Houston as a 7 ?-point home favorite and that line has held steady after his status was downgraded to ?out.?

Are bettors still doubting the Rockets? If the game was on the road, you can certainly see why but the recent trends from the Toyota Center all lean to Houston. Mike D?Antoni and company have gone 5-0 straight up and 4-1 against the spread in this year?s playoffs at home and since the head coach arrived in 2016, the team is 17-6 SU and 12-11 ATS in the postseason as hosts.

While those numbers are solid, NBA expert Kevin Rogers dug into them further and you could be pumping the brakes on Houston tonight.

He explained, ?The Rockets own an 0-3 record both SU and ATS in the last three playoff games when facing elimination since 2016. Two of those losses came at Toyota Center, including a 114-75 drubbing at the hands of the Spurs as nine-point favorites in Game 6 of the 2017 second round.?

Of the six losses that Houston has had under D?Antonio at home in the playoffs, three of them came to Golden State and that includes the 101-92 loss in Game 7 of last year?s Western Conference Finals.

Rogers noted, ?The Warriors have wrapped up each of their last three postseason series away from Oracle Arena, all victories by nine points or more. Granted, Golden State is without Durant, but under Steve Kerr, the Warriors have not lost three road playoff games in a series dating back to 2015.?

As an underdog, Golden State has gone 3-5 SU and 4-4 ATS this season, which includes the Game 3 setback (126-121) to Houston (-3.5) in this series. Since Kerr took over the coaching duties in 2014, the Warriors have been listed as underdogs eight times in the playoffs. The club has gone 4-4 both SU and ATS while the totals have also gone 4-4. Friday?s line is the largest amount of points that Golden State has ever received in the postseason with Kerr on the sidelines.

The total on Game 6 opened at 210 but has been pushed up to 214. The ?over? has gone 3-2 in the first five games of this series and that includes both games going high in Houston. The Rockets have been averaging 115.8 PPG at home in the playoffs. In the four games without KD this season, the Warriors averaged 104 PPG while only allowing 99.5 PPG. Not surprisingly, the ?under? went 4-0 in those contests.

From a futures perspective, Golden State was the odds-on 5/7 favorite (Bet $100 to win $71) to pull off the ?Three-peat? and capture this year?s NBA Finals prior to the Game 5 victory. As of this morning, the Warriors are now a 5/4 (Bet $100 to win $125) betting choice to win the title.

The series price still has Golden State (-185) listed as a favorite but the return on Houston (+160) was adjusted.

If necessary Game 7 will take place on Sunday from Oracle Arena and if that happens, it will be the first time since 2014 that the NBA Playoffs will have three Game 7?s on the same day.

 

[Cnotes53]

FRIDAY, MAY 10
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

GS at HOU 09:00 PM

HOU -7.5

U 214.5

 

[Cnotes53]

Curry, short-handed Warriors knock out Rockets in Game 6
May 10, 2019
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HOUSTON (AP) Stephen Curry scored all 33 of his points in the second half and the Golden State Warriors overcame Kevin Durant's absence to finish off Houston in six games, beating the Rockets 118-113 on Friday night to advance to the Western Conference finals.

Klay Thompson added 27 points to help the two-time defending champion Golden State reach the conference finals for the fifth straight year and eliminate Houston for the fourth time in five seasons. The Warriors did it with Durant sidelined by a calf injury sustained in the second half of their Game 5 victory.

James Harden led Houston with 35 points, and Chris Paul added 27.

Harden's layup got the Rockets within three with less than a minute to go, but Thompson made a 3-pointer with 36.1 seconds remaining to extend Golden State's lead to 110-104.

Gerald Green then missed a 3 for Houston and the Rockets were forced to foul Curry. He made both shots before Harden's 3 got Houston within five at 112-107 with 24 seconds left.

Playing with a dislocated finger on his left hand, Curry made two more free throws before P.J. Tucker hit a 3 for Houston. But two more free throws by Curry made it 116-110 with 12.3 seconds left and Harden dribbled it off his foot for the last of his six turnovers.

The Rockets failed to score for a big chunk of the fourth quarter and had to watch the Warriors celebrate a series victory on their home court for the second straight season after they won the conference finals in Houston last year. Harden was 11 of 25 from the field, going 6 of 15 from 3-point range, and went 7 of 12 on free throws.

Curry struggled early, failing to score in the first half for the first time in 102 career playoff games, and had just 10 points through three. But he got going in the fourth, scoring 23 points.

There were questions entering the game about how the Warriors would weather the loss of Durant - and his more than 34 points a game. But they didn't seem to miss a beat, getting 21 from Thompson in the first half before Curry closed it in the fourth.

The Rockets had a five-point lead to start the fourth and it was tied at 95 with about 7 1/2 minutes to go after three points by Golden State's Shaun Livingston.

Harden and Curry exchanged baskets soon after that before both teams failed to score for the next 2 1/2 minutes. Houston missed five shots in that stretch and the Warriors missed four before Kevon Looney made a layup to put Golden State on top 99-97 with just under four minutes left.

A 3-pointer by Curry gave the Warriors a five-point lead before Harden ended a scoring drought by the Rockets of almost four minutes with a 3-pointer to cut the lead to 102-100 with about 2 1/2 remaining.

Harden was called for a charge after that before Curry scored all of Golden State's points in a 5-2 run that made it 107-102 with 90 seconds left.

TIP-INS

Warriors: Durant didn't make the trip to Houston, remaining in the Bay Area to receive treatment for his injury. The Warriors said he'll be re-evaluated next week. ... The Warriors started Andrew Bogut for Durant and he had three rebounds and zero points. ... C Damian Jones, who is out with a torn pectoral muscle, has been cleared for contact drills and could be available later in the playoffs if the Warriors advance. ...

Rockets: Tucker had 15 points and has scored at least 10 points in eight of Houston's last 11 games. ... Clint Capela had with 10 points and 10 rebounds.

UP NEXT

The Warriors move on to face the Denver-Portland winner.

 

[Cnotes53]

SCHEDULE FOR SUNDAY MAY 12, 2019

Time (ET) Away Home Site

3:30 PM Portland Trail Blazers Denver Nuggets Pepsi Center

7:00 PM Philadelphia 76ers Toronto Raptors Scotiabank Arena


************************************


NBA PLAYOFF RECORD OPINIONS AND BEST BETS !

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD

05/10/2019 0-2-0 0.00% -11.00
05/09/2019 1-3-0 25.00% -11.50
05/08/2019 2-2-0 50.00% -1.00
05/07/2019 1-3-0 25.00% -11.50
05/06/2019 1-2-1 33.33% -6.00
05/05/2019 2-2-0 50.00% -1.00
05/04/2019 2-0-0 100.00% +10.00
05/03/2019 1-3-0 25.00% -11.00
05/02/2019 2-0-0 100.00% +10.00
05/01/2019 1-1-0 50.00% -0.50

Totals..............13-18-1 41.93% -34.50


******************************


BEST BETS:

DATE........................ATS................... ..UNITS..................O/U..................UNITS.............TOTALS

05/10/2019.............0 - 1....................-5.50....................0 - 1...................-5.50.............-11.00
05/09/2019.............0 - 2....................-11.00...................1 - 1...................-0.50............-11.50
05/08/2019.............1 - 1....................-0.50.....................1 - 1...................-0.50.............-1.00
05/07/2019.............0 - 2....................-11.00...................1 - 1...................-0.50.............-11.50
05/06/2019.............0 - 2....................-11.00...................1 - 0..................+5.00.............-6.00
05/05/2019.............1 - 1....................-0.50.....................1 - 1..................-0.50..............-1.00
05/04/2019.............1 - 0....................+5.00....................1 - 0.................+5.00.............+10.00
05/03/2019.............0 - 2....................-11.00...................1 - 1..................-0.50..............-11.50
05/02/2019.............1 - 0....................+5.00....................1 - 0.................+5.00.............+10.00
05/01/2019.............0 - 1.....................-5.50....................1 - 0.................+5.00..............-0.50


Totals...................4 - 12.....................-46.00...................9 - 6.................+12.00.............-34.00


**************************

APRILS NBA BEST BETS


Totals....................23 - 21..................-0.50.................25 - 27................-19.50..............-20.00

 

[Cnotes53]

Saturday?s 6-pack

? Warriors 118, Rockets 113? Curry had 0 points in first half, 33 in the second.

? Since 1999-00, James Harden has been fouled shooting a 3-pointer 429 times; next highest during that time is Jamal Crawford, with 249.

? Jose Altuve (hamstring) left the Astros? game in first inning Friday.

? Tampa Bay P Tyler Glasnow (forearm) left Friday?s game in 6th inning.

? Mets 11, Marlins 2? Mets scored eight runs in 1st inning, their most runs in any first inning since June 16, 1989 at Philadelphia.

? Travis d?Arnaud batted once for the Dodgers after they acquired him from the Mets Sunday; now d?Arnaud has been traded to Tampa Bay for cash, probably not a lot of cash.

Quote of the Day
?Whatever you are, be a good one.?
Abraham Lincoln

Saturday?s quiz
Who was Golden State?s coach the last time they didn?t make the playoffs?

Friday?s quiz
Kawhi Leonard played his college basketball at San Diego State.

Thursday?s quiz
George Karl was the Milwaukee Bucks? coach the last time they played in Eastern Conference finals, in 2001.

**************************

Saturday?s List of 13: Random Lists of 3??

13) Three favorite dinners:
? Pizza, just a plain cheese thin pizza. Excellent.
? Spaghetti and meatballs
? Scrambled eggs with sausage

12) Three underrated things:
? NHL playoffs
? Taking the train from Albany to NYC (as opposed to driving)
? Pinball Museum in Las Vegas; 250 vintage pinball machines under one roof

11) Favorite TV shows:
? CSI
? Law and Order
? Odd Couple

10) Favorite Bob Seger songs:
? Turn the Page
? Travelin? Man
? Against the Wind

9) I watch a ton of baseball every day, thanks to the Extra Innings package on DirecTV. These are my favorite announce crews to listen to, if there are no games on that I have rooting interest in:

? Milwaukee Brewers: Brian Anderson/Matt Lepay with analyst Bill Schroeder
? Texas Rangers: Dave Raymond with CJ Nitkowski or Tom Grieve.
? Colorado Rockies: Drew Goodman, moreso when Jeff Huson is the analyst, but Ryan Spilborghs is getting better.

8) Three movies I?ve never seen:
? Star Wars
? Rocky V, or any of the Rocky movies after that
? Godfather II or Godfather III

7) Three favorite sporting events I?ve been to:
? 2000 NFC title game, Rams-Bucs in St Louis
? 2008 World Series game, Rays-Phillies
? AHL playoff game in Glens Falls that went triple OT, sometime in mid-80?s. Game ended around 12:50am; the concession stand ran out of food.

6) Favorite three non-sports movies:
? Rounders
? The Bodyguard
? Begin Again

5) Three favorite Billy Joel songs:
? Piano Man
? Vienna
? She?s Got a Way

4) Three favorite basketball movies:
? Blue Chips
? One on One
? Fast Break

3) Favorite Kevin Costner movies:
? For Love of the Game
? The Bodyguard
? Bull Durham

2) Three best Oakland A?s managers:
? Dick Williams
? Bob Melvin
? Tony LaRussa

1) Three best head coaches for the Rams:
? Dick Vermeil
? Sean McVay
? Chuck Knox

 

[Cnotes53]

Sunday?s 6-pack

Odds to win the college football title next fall:

2-1? Clemson Tigers

5-2? Alabama Crimson Tide

7-1? Georgia Bulldogs

12-1? Ohio State Buckeyes

14-1? Michigan, Oklahoma

20-1? LSU, Auburn

Quote of the Day
?First walk-off homer ever. I never thought I?d ever do it, so it felt pretty good. I didn?t even know what to do around the bases. I didn?t even know what to do with my hands.?
A?s 3B Matt Chapman, after his walk-off homer Friday night

Sunday?s quiz
Which actress who was on the Charlie?s Angels TV show also played Hodges? mother on CSI?

Saturday?s quiz
Mark Jackson was Golden State?s coach the last time they didn?t make the playoffs, in 2012.

Friday?s quiz
Kawhi Leonard played his college basketball at San Diego State.

******************************

Sunday?s List of 13: Clearing out a cluttered mind??.

13) Tip of the cap to Dick Vitale, whose V Foundation gala raised $4.3M this week to fight pediatric cancer. Vitale works very hard on this fundraising effort; good for him.

12) Cubs 2, Brewers 1 (15)? Milwaukee is first team since the 1984 Indians to have their first two extra-innings games of a season go at least 15 innings.

It was the Cubs? third walk-off win in their last five games.

11) Lakers signed Frank Vogel as their new head coach; he went 250-181 in six years as coach of the Pacers, then had two rough years in Orlando, going 54-110.

Apparently Tyronn Lue passed on the job because he didn?t want Jason Kidd as an assistant.

When Vogel was a kid, he appeared on Late Night with David Letterman, because he could spin a basketball on a toothbrush, while he was brushing his teeth. Wonder if he can still do that.

10) Pro golfer Taylor Duncan hit his wife in the head with a shot this week; hope he wins a lot of money this week, to make up for it.

9) I traded Luis Castillo in my fantasy league (for Corey Seager) which looks like a terrible trade, but how about the Miami Marlins trading Castillo TWICE?

First the Marlins traded him to San Diego, but that deal got voided because one of the pitchers they got back from the Padres was hurt. Then they traded Castillo to Cincinnati, as part of a package for Dan Straily; I?m kicking myself for screwing up a fantasy league trade, and these geniuses bungle a deal when they run a franchise that is worth a billion dollars? Brilliant!!!

8) Lakers/Knicks are having a pretty good duel to see which team can be more dysfunctional, and right now, LA might be winning. Hard to tell who is making the decisions for the Lakers, but whoever it is, they?re also doing a terrible job.

When Luke Walton was gobbled up by Sacramento about ten minutes after the Lakers let him go, you got the idea that LA is a complete mess.

7) Baseball injuries:
? Tampa Bay put P Tyler Glasnow (forearm) on the IL; he is out 4-6 weeks.
? Phillies put P Vince Velasquez (forearm) on the 10-Day IL.

6) SouthPoint casino in Las Vegas put up an interesting college football prop bet Saturday:
Odds to win national title this coming season:
8-5: Alabama-Oklahoma-Ohio State
3-2: Clemson-Georgia-Michigan
12-5: Everyone else

5) College basketball transfer portal:
? California transfer Justice Sueing commits to Ohio State. Sit one year, play two. Averaged 14.3 ppg, 6.0 rpg. Someone wrote ?Needs to work on his motor,? which really means ?He doesn?t try hard all the time.? Pretty bright red flag right there.
? Pacific G Ajare Sanni is transferring to UC Santa Barbara.
? Memphis poached Little Rock grad transfer G Rayjon Tucker (41% of 3?s).
? Mbacke Diong removed his name from the portal, will stay at UNLV.

4) San Francisco Giants claimed OF Aaron Altherr on waivers from the Phillies.

A?s traded P Edwin Jackson to Toronto for cash; Blue Jays will be Jackson?s 14th team.

3) Golden State Warriors won three of the last four NBA titles, and the year they didn?t win was the year they went 73-9 in the regular season. Go figure.

2) A?s 3, Indians 2? Oakland?s third walk-off win in last four days.

1) The guy in Detroit who caught Albert Pujols? home run Thursday (Pujols? 2,000th RBI) had a change of heart and will give the ball to Pujols. Originally the guy had declined, saying he would just keep the ball. Apparently he turned down a few good offers of memorabilia combinations on Thursday, from both the Angels and Tigers.

One small problem??.now Pujols says he doesn?t want the ball; I?m wondering if he thinks a switch has been made, and wouldn?t be 100% this was the actual baseball he hit.

 

[Cnotes53]

Pair of Game 7s await to end Round 2
May 11, 2019
By The Associated Press

Kyle Lowry was talking in Toronto on Saturday, discussing any number of topics, offering eloquent answers to every question that came his way. His last sentence was all that really needed to be said.

''Nothing matters,'' the Raptors guard said, ''but Game 7.''

There may be nothing better in sports than a Game 7 - and the second round of these NBA playoffs ends Sunday with a pair of deciders: third-seeded Philadelphia at second-seeded Toronto in an Eastern Conference semifinal; third-seeded Portland at second-seeded Denver in a Western Conference semifinal.

The Portland-Denver winner will visit top-seeded Golden State in Game 1 of the West finals Tuesday. The Philadelphia-Toronto winner goes to top-seeded Milwaukee for Game 1 of the East finals Wednesday.

''I've been fortunate to be in a few Game 7s and they're very unique,'' Philadelphia coach Brett Brown said. ''They're special. They are a life lesson, a life opportunity.''

There have been 133 Game 7s in NBA history - home teams have won 105, or 79%. Roughly one of every four Game 7s has been decided by three points or less; 56% have been decided by a single-digit margin. Blowouts are rare, with only 14 Game 7s getting decided by more than 20 points.

''It's for our season, for all the marbles,'' Portland guard Damian Lillard said.

Denver has already won a Game 7 this season, also at home, topping San Antonio in the first round. Nikola Jokic had a triple-double - 21 points, 15 rebounds, 10 assists - in that game for the Nuggets, and coach Michael Malone is fond of saying his team has the best home-court advantage in the NBA.

But Jokic isn't banking on home court being enough of an edge. He says it's imperative to bring more energy Sunday - and adds there's no reason to get nervous.

''I've played basketball for 15 years,'' Jokic said. ''That's what I've done my whole life. Why would I be nervous right now? ... You control the game. You're the one who's playing. As long as you're giving 100 percent, you can't be nervous because you're focused on the plays and actions and whatever you're doing on the floor. You don't have time to be nervous.''

GAME 7 HISTORIES

PORTLAND VS. DENVER

Trail Blazers: 1-2 all-time, 0-2 on road

Nuggets: 2-2 all-time, 2-0 at home

Head-to-head in Game 7: First meeting

Notable: Portland hasn't played in a Game 7 since 2003, and that was Arvydas Sabonis' last game in the NBA. Denver is aiming to become the fifth team in the current playoff format to win Game 7s in each of the first two playoff rounds joining Toronto in 2016, Boston in 2008, Phoenix in 2006 and Dallas in 2003.

PHILADELPHIA VS. TORONTO

76ers: 6-9 all-time, 1-8 on road

Raptors: 2-2 all-time, 2-1 at home

Head-to-head in Game 7: Philadelphia, 1-0 (88-87, 2001, East 2nd round, in Philadelphia)

Notable: Philly's Jimmy Butler has never trailed in a Game 7 - his Chicago Bulls won at Brooklyn in 2013, a game the Nets never led. Toronto's Kawhi Leonard is 1-2 in his previous Game 7s, shooting 45 percent and averaging 15.7 points.

SUNDAY'S GAMES

TRAIL BLAZERS AT NUGGETS

Series tied 3-3. Game 7, 3:30 p.m. EDT, ABC

NEED TO KNOW: A series that had a four-overtime game is going to go the distance, and that's fitting. Portland's two top scorers, Lillard and CJ McCollum, have combined for 311 points in the series. Denver's two top scorers, Jokic and Jamal Murray, have combined for 309. Given how the star power seems to cancel out, expect Game 7 to be decided by a third option or role player who steps up.

INJURY WATCH: Rotations aren't expected to change much, if at all, for either team going into Game 7.

KEEP AN EYE ON: Denver's 3-point shooting. The Nuggets beat the Spurs in a Game 7 despite going 2 for 20 from beyond the arc. They can't expect to do that again and beat the Blazers.

PRESSURE IS ON: Slightly more on Denver, simply because the Nuggets are home. Being on the road may actually keep Portland somewhat loose.

76ERS AT RAPTORS

Series tied 3-3. Game 7, 7 p.m. EDT, TNT

NEED TO KNOW: Both teams have a five-point road win already in this series, and the other four games have all been double-digit victories by the home club. Having two days off between Game 6 and Game 7 probably was welcomed by everybody, particularly 76ers star Joel Embiid, who will likely need to play very big minutes Sunday. The 76ers have outscored the Raptors by 80 points in 192 minutes with Embiid on the floor in this series, and the Raptors have outscored the 76ers by 97 points in the 96 minutes that he's been on the bench.

INJURY WATCH: All the usual names are expected to play.

KEEP AN EYE ON: The first few minutes. Nerves get amped up in Game 7 and the first team to settle into a rhythm will have a major edge. Toronto is 7-0 in the playoffs when leading at halftime, 0-4 when trailing at the break.

PRESSURE IS ON: Everybody, of course, but Philadelphia has only four players who know what Game 7 feels like. Toronto has nine Game 7 veterans.

 

[Cnotes53]

NBA Playoffs - Game 7 Facts
May 11, 2019
By VI News

Game 7 Quick Facts

-- The NBA has had 133 Game 7?s in playoff history

-- The home team is 105-28 (79%) in those games

The 2019 NBA playoffs has had one Game 7 so far and the home team was victorious.

Western Conference First Round - Denver (-6.5) 90 vs. San Antonio 86 (Under 207.5)

-- The 2018 NBA playoffs has had four Game 7's and road teams captured two wins.

Eastern Conference First Round - Cleveland (-5.5) 105 vs. Indiana 101 (Over 200.5)
Eastern Conference First Round - Boston (-4.5) 112 vs. Milwaukee 96 (Over 196)
Eastern Conference Finals - Cleveland (+2.5) 87 at Boston 79 (Under 197)
Western Conference Finals - Golden State (-6) 101 at Houston 92 (Under 208.5)

-- The 2017 NBA playoffs only had two Game 7's and the results were split with the Jazz capturing a rare road victory.

Western Conference First Round - Utah (+3.5) 104 at L.A. Clippers 91 (Over 190.5)
Eastern Conference Semifinals - Boston (-5) 115 vs. Washington 105 (Over 211)

-- The 2016 NBA playoffs had five Game 7's played and the home team won four games (3-2 ATS), two of the victories coming by double digits.

Eastern Conference First Round - Miami (-6.5) 106 vs. Charlotte 73 (Under 190.5)
Eastern Conference First Round - Toronto (-6) 89 vs. Indiana 84 (Under 190)
Eastern Conference Semifinals - Toronto (-4.5) 116 vs. Miami 89 (Over 188.5)
Western Conference Finals - Golden State (-7) 96 vs. Oklahoma City 88 (Under 219)
NBA Finals - Cleveland (+5) 93 at Golden State 89 (Under 182)

-- The 2015 postseason featured two Game 7's. The home team went 2-0 with the Los Angeles Clippers and Houston Rockets capturing victories.

-- The 2014 postseason featured five Game 7's. The home team went 4-1 in those games and the lone visitor to win was Brooklyn, who defeated Toronto 104-103 in overtime.

Denver Game 7 Recent History

The Nuggets have only played in four Game 7's in franchise history. They've gone 2-2 in those games with the last matchup coming in the first round of this year's playoffs. Prior to that game, the last Game 7 for the Nuggets came in the 2012 playoffs.

2018 First Round
Denver 90 San Antonio 86

2012 First Round
Denver 87 at L.A. Lakers 96

Portland Game 7 Recent History

The Trail Blazers have played three Game 7's in franchise history and they've gone 1-2. Their last visit came in the 2003 postseason.

2003 First Round
Portland 95 at Dallas 107

Toronto Game 7 Recent History

The Raptors have played in four Game 7's in franchise history and it owns a 2-2 record, but it has won its last two appearances, both coming at home.

2016 First Round
Toronto 89 vs. Indiana 84

2016 Conference Semifinals
Toronto 116 vs. Miami 89

2014 First Round
Toronto 103 vs. Boston 104

Philadelphia Game 7 Recent History

The 76ers franchise has gone 6-9 in 15 Game 7 appearances. The last Game 7 for Philadelphia took place in the 2012 postseason.

2012 Conference Semifinals
Philadelphia 75 Boston 85

ALL-TIME GAME 7 ROAD WINNERS

Year Road Team Home Team Round

2018 Golden State 101 Houston 92 Conference finals
2018 Cleveland 87 Boston 79 Conference finals
2017 Utah 104 L.A. Clippers 91 First round
2016 Cleveland 93 Golden State 89 NBA Finals
2014 Brooklyn 104 Toronto 103 First round
2013 Chicago 99 Brooklyn 93 First round
2012 L.A. Clippers 82 Memphis 72 First round
2009 Orlando 101 Boston 82 Conference semifinals
2007 San Antonio 91 New Orleans 82 Conference semifinals
2007 Utah 103 Houston 99 First round
2006 *Dallas 119 San Antonio 111 Conference semifinals
2005 Detroit 88 Miami 82 Conference finals
2005 Indiana 97 Boston 70 First round
2002 *L.A. Lakers 112 Sacramento 106 Conference finals
2000 New York 83 Miami 82 Conference semifinals
1995 Indiana 97 New York 95 Conference semifinals
1995 Houston 115 Phoenix 114 Conference semifinals
1982 Philadelphia 120 Boston 106 Conference finals
1981 Kansas City 95 Phoenix 88 Conference semifinals
1981 Houston 105 San Antonio 100 Conference semifinals
1978 Washington 105 Seattle 99 NBA Finals
1976 Phoenix 94 Golden State 86 Conference finals
1974 Boston 102 Milwaukee 87 NBA Finals
1973 New York 94 Boston 78 Conference finals
1971 Baltimore 93 New York 91 Conference finals
1969 Boston 108 L.A. Lakers 106 NBA Finals
1968 Boston 100 Philadelphia 96 Division finals
1948 Philadelphia 85 St Louis 46 Semifinals

(*) Asterisk denotes overtime

 

[Cnotes53]

 

[Cnotes53]

Sunday's Playoff Essentials
Tony Mejia

Western Conference Semifinals ? Game 7 -- Series tied 3-3

No. 3 Portland at No. 2 Denver (-4/212.5), ABC, 3:30 p.m. ET

May 9 ? Blazers (-4) 119 vs. Nuggets 108 (Over 213.5)
May 7 ? Nuggets (-5) 124 vs. Blazers 98 (Over 213)
May 5 ? Nuggets (+3) 116 at Blazers 112 (Over 211)
May 3 ? Blazers (-5) 140 vs. Nuggets 137 (Over 215)
May 1 ? Blazers (+4) 97 at Nuggets 90 (Under 219.5)
April 29 ? Nuggets (-4) 121 vs. Blazers 113 (Over 215.5)

April 7 ? Blazers (-8.5) 115 vs. Nuggets 108 (Under 219.5)
April 5 ? Nuggets (-6) 119 vs. Blazers 110 (Over 216)
Jan. 13 ? Nuggets (-4.5) 116 vs. Blazers 113 (Over 217)
Nov. 30 ? Nuggets (+1.5) 113 at Blazers 112 (Over 214)

Members of the Nuggets and Trail Blazers watched the Warriors eliminate the Rockets on Friday night with great interest that had little to do with the Western Conference finals.

Had Golden State not pulled off a Game 6 upset to avoid a deciding game back in Oakland, it would be hosting the early game on Sunday and these two would be playing late at night, as has been customary in this series.

Instead, the game will tip at 1:30 local time, which will make it just after noon as far as the body clocks of the Blazers are concerned.

Denver has only played a handful of matinee tips and enters this one with wins in three of five, most recently defeating the Spurs in San Antonio in Game 4 of its first-round series, evening it up at 2-2. The Blazers have only lost one of their five early starts and defeated the Thunder on a Sunday afternoon to open these playoffs.

The Nuggets have been excellent at Pepsi Center, winning five of seven during the postseason after posting an NBA-best 34-7 home record.

The home team has won 78 percent of Game 7s throughout NBA playoff history, prevailing in 105 of 133 series-deciders, so considering the altitude and a homecourt advantage that has been the league?s best, the Blazers have their work cut out for them as they attempt to advance to their first conference finals since 2000. Denver is looking for its first appearance in a decade. Including this playoff run, Portland is just 23-23 on the road this season and comes in under .500 during the postseason.

So how can they win, or at least cover for those brave enough to get the points?

It?s going to have to start with slowing down the production of Nikola Jokic, who is averaging 26.8 points, 14 rebounds and 8.7 assists and has shot under .500 just once in the series. Enes Kanter has done his best and Zach Collins has performed better than anyone could?ve imagined entering this series, but neither can contain Jokic or throw him off his game. On the road, it?s going to be for Portland difficult to rattle the Serbian who has grown into a top-three NBA center.

We might see the Blazers pull a page from the Warriors? plan of dealing with Jokic, which consisted of speeding up the pace to make him uncomfortable in addition trapping in order to get him to give the ball up. Paul Millsap has been a terrific weapon alongside Jokic who can take pressure off him and serve as a small-ball five if need be, while Jamal Murray, Gary Harris, Will Barton and Torrey Craig have all excelled in their roles to put the Nuggets in position to advance despite failing in their first chance to take down the Blazers, who scored their second-highest total of the postseason when facing elimination on Thursday.

This will be Denver?s second elimination game too, having defeated San Antonio to survive on Game 7 already. The Nuggets are favored by more than the 4-to-5 points they?ve been tasked with laying in every home game in the series and continue to get most of the action from the betting public.

Damian Lillard is a dangerous guy to fade, especially coming off his highest scoring output of this series, shooting 6-for-13 from 3-point range to finish with 32 points in helping keep the Blazers alive in Game 6. He?s averaged 27.2 points thus far in the series, but is still just shooting 27.8 from beyond the arc after hitting 47 percent of his attempts against OKC in the first round.

The total for Game 7 opened 212 ? and that number has held solid as of Sunday morning. VegasInsider.com NBA expert Chris David offered up his thoughts and lean for the finale.

?My initial thoughts on this game is that I feel bad for both clubs because they should be playing later instead of in the early afternoon slot at 1:30 p.m. MDT. I?m not sure if it will matter but neither of these teams are used to playing this early and while they?re professionals, routines certainly are a factor,? he said.

?I also respect the oddsmakers and their numbers and after watching the ?over? go 5-1 in the first six games, they post a total that?s the second lowest in this series. Not to mention, the high side went 4-0 in the four regular season meetings between the pair. Should we believe the Game 7 nerves will take over? A tight game will shorten any game and possession basketball usually favors the ?under? but you could also get the 3-point-free-throw game at the end and those meaningless points always help ?over? wagers. I think Portland comes to play on Sunday and when the Trail Blazers have won on the road in this year?s playoffs, it?s because of the defense. Denver looked tight in its Game 7 win (90-86) over San Antonio in the first round and I?m expecting a similar outcome here. I would lean to the ?under? in the game and the Nuggets Team Total Under (109 ?) as well.?

While the ?over? is 5-1 in the series and is 9-3 in the last 10 playoff games involving Denver. The high side is on a 6-1 run in Blazers? games. The Blazers are just 3-18 on the road in the playoffs dating back to 2014, so they?ll have to overcome a poor history as a visitor in order to advance to the conference finals.

The Nuggets opened the series as a slight favorite (-145) over the Trail Blazers (+125) according to Westgate, which is where the current odds also reside.

Lillard played in all four regular-season meetings against Denver, averaging 21.3 points but shooting just 37 percent from the field and 28.6 from 3-point range. Expect CJ McCollum and Rodney Hood to continue to play large roles alongside him since Blazers figure to go small and ride out shooting come fourth quarter.


Eastern Conference Semifinals ? Game 7 -- Series tied 3-3

No. 3 Philadelphia at No. 2 Toronto (-4/219) ,TNT, 7:00 p.m. ET

May 9 ? 76ers (+1.5) 112 vs. Raptors 101 (Over 211.5)
May 7 ? Raptors (-6) 125 vs. 76ers 89 (Over 212.5)
May 5 ? Raptors (+2) 101 at 76ers 96 (Under 216)
May 2 ? 76ers (+1.5) 116 vs. Raptors 95 (Under 216.5)
April 29 ? 76ers (+7.5) 97 at Raptors 89 (Under 220)
April 27 ? Raptors (-6.5) 108 vs. 76ers 95 (Under 223)

Feb. 5 - Raptors (+2.5) 119 at 76ers 107 (Under 231)
Dec. 22 ? 76ers (-7.5) 126 vs. Raptors 101 (Over 222.5)
Dec. 5 - Raptors (-6.5) 113 vs. 76ers 102 (Under 229)
Oct. 30 - Raptors (-6) 129 vs. 76ers 112 (Over 227.5)

Last Saturday, 76ers center Joel Embiid spent the night wishing for the sweet release of sleep, which is the only temporary way to relieve the torture of the type of flu he?s been dealing with. Embiid ultimately required an IV to get him ready to play in Game 4, which was effective enough only to help him float out there like a zombie for 35 minutes in a 101-96 home loss.

If nothing else, Embiid will walk out on the Scotiabank Arena floor for this Game 7 feeling much better than he has in a week. Considering his effectiveness has been tied to his health in this series and he?s thoroughly dominated some games simply through his presence at both ends, the 76ers have to like their chances of battling back from a 3-2 deficit by pulling off a second upset of the Raptors in Toronto.

The Raptors dropped Game 3 at home, looking like the inferior team in the series in falling behind by 19 points in front of their home to squander the 1-0 lead they built in blowout fashion. This series has been filled with twists and turns as Kawhi Leonard, Jimmy Butler and Embiid have all taken turns dominating, so we?re about to see which coaching staff can most effectively neutralize what they know is coming in sets they?ve seen and plays they?ve defended against over the past few weeks.

Head coaches Brett Brown and Nick Nurse have each seen their teams impose their will over lengthy stretches in this one, which is why many will be on the 76ers given the point spread and the star power they bring to the table. Toronto?s biggest advantage in this series was expected to be its depth, but the quality bench play it expected from backup point guard Fred VanVleet and wing scorer Norman Powell hasn?t materialized.

The home team is 4-2 in this series, while the 'under' is also 4-2 despite losing last time out on the game's final basket inside the final minute after some questionable fouling. It took the number coming down to its lowest figure of the series for the 'over' to prevail, so it's no surprise that this decisive Game 7 sees the total down to 209. Philadelphia has been in the plus-six range through in all of its road games against the Raps. Tobias Harris has averaged 15 points over his last four games and has shot 50 percent only one in the six contests. He?s 10-for-38 from 3-point range in the series while J.J. Redick is on a 5-for-17 run over the last two contests. If either of them finds the range in Toronto, the 76ers have a great chance to advance.

Embiid was the third-leading scorer on his own team in Game 6 but managed to finish an astonishing plus-40 in his time on the floor. The Raptors would love to see him land in early foul trouble and will likely attack the paint early to target him in the first few minutes before he goes to the bench. Since the Raptors have proven they can victimize Boban Marjanovic and Greg Monroe when they enter to give Embiid his break, look for Brown to limit his rotation to forward Mike Scott, wing James Ennis III and perhaps a more mobile big like Jonah Bolden or Amir Johnson.

Serge Ibaka has been the lone consistent contributor off the Raps? bench, Patrick McCaw and Jodie Meeks have barely played and Jeremy Lin can?t get off the bench before garbage time, so it?s essential that Leonard?s co-starters handle business to fill out some form of supporting cast for the player who has performed like the top weapon in this year?s Eastern Conference playoffs.

Leonard is averaging 33.7 points in the series, increasing his playoff average to 31.0 entering what might wind up being his final game in a Toronto uniform. He?s missed his last eight 3-pointers over the last two games but is still shooting over 56 percent from the field in the series despite having to deal with Butler as a primary defender in addition to the length and athleticism of Embiid and Ben Simmons.

Simmons has been criticized often throughout this series for coming up small and being scared to shoot, but he got off to a strong start in Toronto back in Game 1 by making seven of eight shots and comes off his most productive game of the series. After responding with a series-high 21 points in addition to eight boards and six assists to help the 76ers stave off elimination, Simmons will look to reverse his fortunes in Toronto, where he?s played really poorly the last two times he?s taken the floor in the series, committing as many turnovers as he has assists (9) while providing no threat outside the paint.

Take your pick as to who the Raptors? x-factor will be. Pascal Siakam has recovered from the calf contusion that nearly knocked him out of Game 4 but has lacked the explosiveness that made him such a force throughout most of the season, settling for 3-pointers in an effort to compensate. The 76ers have set the trap to leave him open from beyond the arc and he?s obliged by shooting 4-for-20 from 3-point range. The likely Most Improved Player award winner looked more like his normal self in Game 6, putting together his fifth 20-point output of the series. If he can come through more efficiently, Toronto should hold serve if the others in the starting five pull their weight.

Kyle Lowry, Marc Gasol and Danny Green will all get plenty of opportunities to swing Game 7 and all three have variables in play that will dictate the Raps? success and ultimately determine whether they?ll be able to cover this spread. Lowry must play a great floor game, Gasol has shot 30 percent in Toronto?s losses and nearly 52 percent in the wins and Green has connected on half of his 14 3-pointers in the wins and just 30 percent from beyond the arc in the losses.

Even though Toronto dropped Game 2 and Game 3 in back-to-back fashion to Philadelphia, VI?s David believes that bettors should have confidence in the host on Sunday.

?The Raptors were solid off a loss in the regular season, going 19-8 and that includes a 12-4 mark (80%) at home. More importantly, head coach Nick Nurse has really had his team ready after a bad loss. When losing by double digits this season, the club has responded with a 9-1 record and that includes their Game 4 road win in this series after everybody jumped on the Philadelphia bandwagon with its 2-1 series lead,? said David. ?Winning Game 7?s on the road in the NBA don?t happen often and while Philadelphia has the talent to do so, it?s hard to back them based on their tendencies as a visitor. They had a losing road record (20-21) this season and when catching points, they went 11-13 both straight up and against the spread.

?In the playoffs, they?re 1-2, with all situations coming in this series. The Game 2 outcome was Philadelphia?s only win. I mention those records because they never covered in any of those 15 losses as an underdog, losing by an eye-opening 17.3 PPG. It?s been more than apparent that when the going gets tough for Philly, they turtle up and hide. Based on that angle, a lean to the 76ers on Sunday would be better justified on the money-line at +220 instead of taking the points.?

 

[Cnotes53]

NBA
Dunkel

Sunday, May 12


Portland @ Denver

Game 525-526
May 12, 2019 @ 3:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Portland
117.161
Denver
127.640
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Denver
by 10 1/2
223
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Denver
by 5 1/2
212 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Denver
(-5 1/2); Over

Philadelphia @ Toronto

Game 521-522
May 12, 2019 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Philadelphia
125.586
Toronto
127.552
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Toronto
by 2
202
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Toronto
by 6
209
Dunkel Pick:
Philadelphia
(+6); Under




NBA
Long Sheet

Sunday, May 12

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

PHILADELPHIA (58 - 35) at TORONTO (65 - 28) - 5/12/2019, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHILADELPHIA is 7-18 ATS (-12.8 Units) in road games vs. division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 8-18 ATS (-11.8 Units) after a win by 10 points or more this season.
TORONTO is 16-3 ATS (+12.7 Units) in home games vs. division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 147-119 ATS (+16.1 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 77-58 ATS (+13.2 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 162-125 ATS (+24.5 Units) when playing with 2 days rest since 1996.
PHILADELPHIA is 19-7 ATS (+11.3 Units) after a division game this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 49-32 ATS (+13.8 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 82-59 ATS (+17.1 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 49-28 ATS (+18.2 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
TORONTO is 211-266 ATS (-81.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
TORONTO is 11-7 against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
TORONTO is 12-6 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
10 of 18 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

PORTLAND (60 - 33) at DENVER (61 - 34) - 5/12/2019, 10:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 29-19 ATS (+8.1 Units) in home games this season.
DENVER is 15-7 ATS (+7.3 Units) vs. division opponents this season.
DENVER is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) in home games revenging a loss vs opponent this season.
PORTLAND is 95-77 ATS (+10.3 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
PORTLAND is 20-11 ATS (+7.9 Units) after a win by 10 points or more this season.
PORTLAND is 49-32 ATS (+13.8 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
DENVER is 11-6 against the spread versus PORTLAND over the last 3 seasons
DENVER is 10-8 straight up against PORTLAND over the last 3 seasons
13 of 18 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------




NBA
Armadillo's Write-Up

Sunday, May 12

76ers were held to 95 or fewer points in their three series losses; they scored 94-116-112 in their wins; under is 4-2 in this series. Embiid was +40 in Game 6; they?ll need a big game from him here? he was 9-18 from floor in Game 3, 19-56 in the other five games. Simmons was actually a productive scorer Thursday (9-13 from floor, with 6 assists/8 rebounds); he needs to score here, too. 76ers covered only once in last five visits to Canada- they won three of last five road games overall. Toronto covered four of its last five series games. Home side won nine of last 12 series games.

Lillard/McCollum combined for 62 points in Game 6; their other three starters were combined 5-19 from floor. Denver?s bench was -45 in Game 6; who is going to step up? Nuggets were -10 in Plumlee?s 12:53 on floor in Game 6- they?re getting killed when Jokic is on the bench. Home side won seven of last nine series games; Trailblazers are 2-3 vs spread in last five visits here. Nine of last ten Portland-Denver games went over total, including five of six in this series. Under is 4-2 in Blazers? last six wins; four of their last six losses went over. Portland coach Stotts is 16-33-2 vs spread in playoff games.




NBA

Sunday, May 12

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Portland Trail Blazers
Portland is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games
Portland is 18-6 SU in its last 24 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Portland's last 7 games
Portland is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
Portland is 3-9-1 ATS in its last 13 games when playing Denver
Portland is 4-9 SU in its last 13 games when playing Denver
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Portland's last 10 games when playing Denver
Portland is 2-5-1 ATS in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Denver
Portland is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Denver
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Portland's last 5 games when playing on the road against Denver
Denver Nuggets
Denver is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Denver's last 6 games
Denver is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Denver is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 14 of Denver's last 19 games at home
Denver is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Portland
Denver is 9-4 SU in its last 13 games when playing Portland
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Denver's last 10 games when playing Portland
Denver is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Portland
Denver is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against Portland
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Denver's last 5 games when playing at home against Portland

Philadelphia 76ers
Philadelphia is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games
Philadelphia is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Philadelphia's last 8 games
Philadelphia is 7-16 ATS in its last 23 games when playing Toronto
Philadelphia is 6-19 SU in its last 25 games when playing Toronto
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 7 games when playing Toronto
Philadelphia is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Toronto
Philadelphia is 1-15 SU in its last 16 games when playing on the road against Toronto
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 6 games when playing on the road against Toronto
Toronto Raptors
Toronto is 12-6 ATS in its last 18 games
Toronto is 14-5 SU in its last 19 games
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Toronto's last 12 games
Toronto is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Toronto is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Toronto's last 6 games at home
Toronto is 16-7 ATS in its last 23 games when playing Philadelphia
Toronto is 19-6 SU in its last 25 games when playing Philadelphia
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Toronto's last 7 games when playing Philadelphia
Toronto is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Philadelphia
Toronto is 15-1 SU in its last 16 games when playing at home against Philadelphia
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Toronto's last 6 games when playing at home against Philadelphia


-------------------------------------------------------------------


521Philadelphia -522 Toronto
TORONTO is 16-3 ATS (12.7 Units) in home games vs. division opponents over the last 2 seasons.

525Portland -526 Denver
PORTLAND is 3-15 ATS (-13.5 Units) in road games after failing to cover 5 or 6 of their last 7 against the spread in the last 3 seasons.

 

[Cnotes53]

SUNDAY, MAY 12
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

POR at DEN 03:30 PM
DEN -5.5
O 213.5

PHI at TOR 07:00 PM
PHI +6.5
U 209.5

 

[Cnotes53]

Trail Blazers upset Nuggets, 100-96
May 12, 2019
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DENVER (AP) Damian Lillard's shots kept banging off the backboard, rattling off the rim, going everywhere but through the hoop.

The Portland Trail Blazers are going to the Western Conference Finals anyway because CJ McCollum had his back.

McCollum scored 37 points and added a crucial chase-down block in the closing minutes that helped the Blazers beat the Denver Nuggets 100-96 on Sunday to advance to their first conference championship since 2000.

They'll open Tuesday night at Golden State against the two-time defending NBA champion Warriors in a series pitting Portland's Seth Curry against his big brother, Golden State star Steph Curry.

Lillard scored 13 points and made just 3 of 17 shots from the field, but two of them were critical 3-pointers in the fourth quarter that put Portland ahead 81-76 and 92-85.

''It's a luxury to have two guys like that who can find different ways to score in different ways,'' Blazers coach Terry Stotts said. ''CJ does it one way, Dame does it in another. On a night when Dame struggled shooting the ball CJ came up big.''

''CJ McCollum showed why they have one of the best backcourts in the NBA,'' Nuggets coach Michael Malone said. ''He put his team on his back and made big play after big play.''

None bigger than when his crucial chase-down block with 4:44 left and the Trail Blazers leading 87-83.

McCollum raced to stop a breakaway layup by Jamal Murray , who had a miserable night shooting, missing 14 of 18 shots.

''Seth did a good job of cutting off his lane and making him have to go over his head,'' McCollum said. ''He put it right there for me and I went and got it `Bron style. Shout out to my guy `Bron. It was a mini-version of 'Bron's block on Iggy some years ago . Definitely didn't get up as high but it was a cool play. I might get a picture of that.''

Lillard said it was just the spark the Blazers needed to complete the comeback from a 17-point first-half hole.

''Those are the plays that get teams going, coming off a turnover and they get an easy one,'' he said. ''At that point of the game you want to make them work for everything.''

The Nuggets were down 96-95 coming out of a timeout when McCollum hit a pull-up jumper over Torrey Craig with 12.4 seconds left.

''All summer long I'm going to probably be second-guessing myself at the timeout,'' Malone said. ''That's a shot he makes consistently. Torrey played good defense, as good a defense you can play 1-on-1. And I was saying after we should have sent someone at him. He's having a great game and make somebody else make a play or make a shot.''

The mismanagement continued: Jokic was fouled inside shooting a 2-pointer with 11.4 seconds left and missed the first free throw. Instead of missing the second on purpose, he made it for a 98-96 deficit.

Eric Turner then hit two free throws with eight seconds left for the final margin, and Jokic missed a long 3-pointer, with five seconds remaining, Turner grabbed the rebounds and dribbled out the clock.

The Nuggets raced to a 39-22 lead and Game 7 was beginning to look a lot like Game 5, when Denver blew out Portland by 26 points in this building. But Stotts called a timeout with 7:26 left in the second quarter and his team began chipping away.

''There wasn't going to be any quit,'' Stotts said. ''I didn't think they ever stopped believing. ... It was just about regrouping.''

The Blazers were down 48-39 at halftime and trailed by just a point heading into the fourth quarter.

That's when the Nuggets' hopes of reaching their first Western Conference Finals in a decade died with a 7-of-24 shooting performance, including 3 of 10 from Jokic, who tearfully blamed himself in the locker room for the loss.

Nonsense, said his coach, who suggested Jokic established himself during these playoffs as the best big man in basketball and he only petered out at the end because the Nuggets had to rely so heavily on the 7-foot All-Star.

''I hope after 14 playoff games, America, everyone around the world, came to appreciate his game,'' Malone said. ''For him to be as emotional and upset as he was speaks to his caring. He was upset because he thinks he didn't do enough for us to win tonight.''

It was a devastating end to Denver's season after the Nuggets ended a six-year playoff drought and earned the second seed in the Western Conference bracket.

TIP-INS:

Portland: Rodney Hood hyperextended his left knee in the third quarter. ... Evan Turner, who scored just four points in the first six games of the series, added 14 points, including 10 in the fourth quarter.

Denver: The Nuggets were 2 of 19 from beyond the arc and missed 11 free throws. Portland was 4 of 26 on 3-pointers and 20 of 24 from the stripe.

 

[Cnotes53]

Leonard hits bouncer at buzzer, Raptors beat 76ers in Game 7
May 12, 2019
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TORONTO (AP) Kawhi Leonard hit a shot from the corner over Joel Embiid at the buzzer that bounced off the rim four times before falling to give the Toronto Raptors a 92-90 victory over the Philadelphia 76ers on Sunday night in Game 7 of the Eastern Conference semifinal series.

After Philadelphia's Jimmy Butler tied it with a driving layup with 4.2 seconds left, Toronto used its final timeout to draw up a play for Leonard, who dribbled toward the right corner and launched the high-arching shot.

It bounced to the top of the backboard, hit the near side of the rim again, then the other side twice before going through, setting off a wild celebration as the Raptors advanced to the conference finals for the second time in four seasons. They will open the conference finals Wednesday night at Milwaukee.

Leonard scored 41 points on 16-of-39 shooting. Serge Ibaka added 17 points, and Pascal Siakam had 11 points and 11 rebounds. Embiid led the 76ers with 21 points and 11 rebounds. JJ Redick had 17 points, Butler added 16, and Tobias Harris had 14 points and 10 rebounds.

 

[Cnotes53]

SCHEDULE FOR TUESDAY MAY 14, 2019
Time (ET) Away Home Site
3:00 PM Portland Trail Blazers Golden State Warriors ORACLE Arena

SCHEDULE FOR WEDNESDAY MAY 15, 2019
Time (ET) Away Home Site
8:30 PM Toronto Raptors Milwaukee Bucks Fiserv Forum

SCHEDULE FOR THURSDAY MAY 16, 2019
Time (ET) Away Home Site
9:00 PM Portland Trail Blazers Golden State Warriors ORACLE Arena

SCHEDULE FOR FRIDAY MAY 17, 2019
Time (ET) Away Home Site
8:30 PM Toronto Raptors Milwaukee Bucks Fiserv Forum

SCHEDULE FOR SATURDAY MAY 18, 2019
Time (ET) Away Home Site
9:00 PM Golden State Warriors Portland Trail Blazers Moda Center at the Rose Quarter


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NBA PLAYOFF RECORD OPINIONS AND BEST BETS !

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD

05/12/2019 2-2-0 50.00% -1.00
05/10/2019 0-2-0 0.00% -11.00
05/09/2019 1-3-0 25.00% -11.50
05/08/2019 2-2-0 50.00% -1.00
05/07/2019 1-3-0 25.00% -11.50
05/06/2019 1-2-1 33.33% -6.00
05/05/2019 2-2-0 50.00% -1.00
05/04/2019 2-0-0 100.00% +10.00
05/03/2019 1-3-0 25.00% -11.00
05/02/2019 2-0-0 100.00% +10.00
05/01/2019 1-1-0 50.00% -0.50

Totals..............15-20-1 42.85% -35.50


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BEST BETS:

DATE........................ATS................... ..UNITS..................O/U..................UNITS.............TOTALS

05/12/2019.............1 - 1....................-0.50.....................1 - 1..................-0.50.............-1.00
05/10/2019.............0 - 1....................-5.50....................0 - 1...................-5.50.............-11.00
05/09/2019.............0 - 2....................-11.00...................1 - 1...................-0.50............-11.50
05/08/2019.............1 - 1....................-0.50.....................1 - 1...................-0.50.............-1.00
05/07/2019.............0 - 2....................-11.00...................1 - 1...................-0.50.............-11.50
05/06/2019.............0 - 2....................-11.00...................1 - 0..................+5.00.............-6.00
05/05/2019.............1 - 1....................-0.50.....................1 - 1..................-0.50..............-1.00
05/04/2019.............1 - 0....................+5.00....................1 - 0.................+5.00.............+10.00
05/03/2019.............0 - 2....................-11.00...................1 - 1..................-0.50..............-11.50
05/02/2019.............1 - 0....................+5.00....................1 - 0.................+5.00.............+10.00
05/01/2019.............0 - 1.....................-5.50....................1 - 0.................+5.00..............-0.50


Totals...................5 - 13.....................-46.50..................10 - 7.................+11.50.............-35.00


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APRILS NBA BEST BETS


Totals....................23 - 21..................-0.50.................25 - 27................-19.50..............-20.00

 

[Cnotes53]

Armadillo: Monday's six-pack

Odds to win the college football title next fall:

2-1? Clemson Tigers

5-2? Alabama Crimson Tide

7-1? Georgia Bulldogs

12-1? Ohio State Buckeyes

14-1? Michigan, Oklahoma

20-1? LSU, Auburn


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Armadillo: Monday's List of 13: Wrapping up a sports weekend??.

13) Raptors 92, 76ers 90? Kawhi Leonard hit one of the most dramatic shots in NBA history at the buzzer; he scored 41 points as Toronto advances to the Eastern finals against Milwaukee.

As Leonard was dribbling around the perimeter with :02 or :03 left, some imbecile at the bar I was at (me) says ?We?re heading to overtime.? Not so much.

Leonard made $23,114,067 this season; he earned every penny Sunday night.

12) Portland 100, Denver 96? Trailblazers play Golden State in western finals, which will make for a long few days for the Curry family. Seth Curry plays for Portland- they trailed by 17 in this game.

11) If you like listening to podcasts and you like football and you like movies, there is a MMQB NFL Podcast that is periodically going to analyze football movies- they?ve already done Draft Day and Any Given Sunday. Good stuff. It is available in the iTunes store for free.

One thing though, it is weird hearing a podcast when the people doing the podcast are maybe half your age, and they?re talking about a 20-year old movie like Any Given Sunday.

10) Podcasts are fun, especially late at night, but they also make me a little sad, because they?re slowly replacing writing as a way of communicating, and writing is a great skill we should cultivate in young people. If we stop reading and writing, thats not a good thing.

Podcasts are a lazy way of communicating; instead of sitting at your keyboard and thinking about what to type, you just blurt out whatever comes into your mind. It is faster and a lot less strenuous.

Some podcasts aren?t so good, but some are really, really good- you have to be a good consumer so you don?t waste your own time.

9) Madison Bumgarner is likely to get traded in the next couple months; he?s posted an 8-team no-trade list, with every team on the list a contender.

Bumgarner?s in the walk year of his contract, and probably wants to get a contract extension before he?d agree to approve a trade to one of the eight contenders.

8) Meanwhile, today is May 13 and Dallas Keuchel, Craig Kimbrel are still free agents.

7) Baseball injuries:
? Mariners put P Felix Hernandez (shoulder) on the IL.

? Astros put Jose Altuve (hamstring) on the IL.

6) Dodgers 6, Nationals 0? Hyun-Jin Ryu didn?t allow a hit until the 8th inning.

5) Astros 15, Rangers 5? Houston scored 26 runs the last two days.

4) Red Sox 11, Mariners 2? Boston outscored Seattle 34-8 in this series.

3) Pirates 10, Cardinals 6? St Louis lost seven of its last nine games.

2) Bruins 6, Hurricanes 2? Boston grabs 2-0 series lead in eastern final.

1) Further evidence the world may be going nuts: an American Airlines pilot was dragged from a plane in Kentucky and arrested this weekend for the 2015 triple-homicide of three of his former neighbors. Oy.

 

[Cnotes53]

Beilein leaving Michigan for Cavaliers
May 13, 2019
By The Associated Press

CLEVELAND (AP) The Cavaliers went back to college to get a coach.

Cleveland has signed Michigan's John Beilein to a five-year contract, three people familiar with the decision told The Associated Press on Monday. The deal came together quickly in the past 24 hours and was finalized Sunday after the Cavs had spent the weekend in Denver interviewing several NBA assistants.

The people spoke to The AP condition of anonymity because the team had not announced the hire.

The 66-year-old Beilein does not have pro experience but he's long been regarded as one of college hoops' best minds. He guided Michigan to two Final Fours in the past seven years and has developed several top players.

His hiring is a bit of a surprise since it was expected the Cavs would hire a younger coach for their growing team. Cleveland is expected to surround Beilein with an experienced staff.

The Cavs were able to lure Beilein away from Michigan, where he was the winningest coach in school history with a 278-150 record in 12 seasons. He had talks with the Detroit Pistons last year when they were in the market for a new coach, but Beilein said he was never offered that job.

Beilein tweeted his thanks to Michigan's players and fans.

The Cavs are rebuilding following a stormy 19-63 season that followed the departure of LeBron James. Cleveland fired coach Tyronn Lue after six games and then mutually parted ways with Larry Drew to begin a thorough search.

Beilein inherits a young Cleveland team that includes All-Star forward Kevin Love and point guard Collin Sexton, who had a strong rookie season. Cleveland's roster should get an upgrade in the draft and the Cavs are hoping for some more luck in Tuesday's lottery, where the winner will have a shot at Duke All-American Zion Williamson.

Cleveland will have a 14 percent chance at getting the No. 1 overall pick.

Cavs general manager Koby Altman said he wanted a ''culture-driving'' coach when he began his search last month for the team's sixth coach since 2013. The team spoke with numerous NBA assistants before sitting down last week in Ann Arbor, Michigan, with Beilein, one of the people said. The team has long been impressed with Belien as an offensive tactician, and they had a connection with him as he coached Cavs assistant general manager Mike Gansey at West Virginia.

When Belein arrived at Michigan, long known for its strong football program, for the 2007-08 season, the Wolverines hadn't made the NCAAs since 1998. He led them to nine appearances, reaching the Sweet 16 five times and the Final Four in 2013 and 2018. Michigan lost in the title game to Louisville and Villanova, respectively.

Beilein also had health issues last year, undergoing a double-bypass operation in August.

 

[Cnotes53]

Leonard, Raptors to face Bucks, Antetokounmpo in East final
May 13, 2019
By The Associated Press

TORONTO (AP) For the second time in four seasons, the Toronto Raptors are headed to the Eastern Conference final.

While the Raptors won't have to deal with playoff nemesis LeBron James this time, they will face a tough task in controlling Milwaukee Bucks All-Star Giannis Antetokounmpo and the rest of the NBA's highest-scoring offense.

Of course, Toronto will counter with Kawhi Leonard.

He hit the game-winning buzzer-beater Sunday to help Toronto edge Philadelphia 92-90 in Game 7 of its Eastern Conference semifinal series, setting up a showdown between the East's top teams during the regular season.

Leonard's shot bounced around the rim four times before dropping through the basket.

''It was great,'' Leonard said. ''That's something I never experienced before, Game 7, a game-winning shot. It was a blessing to be able to get to that point and make that shot and feel that moment.''

Leonard and the Raptors will have a few hours to enjoy it; the conference final begin Wednesday night in Milwaukee. In its only other conference final appearance, Toronto lost to LeBron James and Cleveland in six games in 2016.

The Raptors are well aware of the challenge ahead.

Toronto guard Kyle Lowry said the Bucks have been ''pretty dominant'' in winning eight of nine postseason games - including the past four straight.

''They've got a lot of weapons and they're pretty deep,'' Lowry said. ''They shoot the ball as well as anybody in the NBA and then they've got the one-man fast break in Giannis.''

The Bucks beat the Raptors three times in four regular-season meetings. Lowry was injured when Toronto won 123-116 at Milwaukee on Jan.5.

''We know we've got a tough task at hand,'' Lowry said. ''We have to prepare for it and get ready to go.''

Toronto coach Nick Nurse said the Bucks present challenges his team hasn't faced in eliminating Orlando and Philadelphia in the first two rounds.

''It's a little different style that we're going to see,'' Nurse said. ''We're going to have to adjust to that really quickly, obviously, and forget about how happy we are pretty quickly because it's a hungry team. It's a very deep team, a very good team. We're going to have to continue to grow and we're going to have to play better.''

Leonard scored 41 points on 16-of-39 shooting in Game 7 against Philadelphia. He topped 30 points five times in the series and averaged 34.7 points overall.

Nurse said Leonard has been playing at an ''elite level'' in the postseason. Toronto center Marc Gasol agrees with his coach.

Leonard ''can create a shot out of pretty much nothing,'' Gasol said. ''He's a mismatch all around.''

In Antetokounmpo, the Bucks have a similar matchup nightmare for Toronto.

The Raptors will need contributions for everyone, including Lowry - who briefly left Game 7 because of a sprained left thumb but returned and played the entire second half.

''I couldn't really pass the ball and grip the ball, but that doesn't matter,'' Lowry said. ''I'm fine.''

Milwaukee has been resting since eliminating Boston in Game 5 on Wednesday.

Toronto, which used only seven players on Sunday, will not practice Monday, giving players some extra rest.

They may need it to derail the surging Bucks.

 

[Cnotes53]

Steph or Seth? Curry family undecided
May 13, 2019
By The Associated Press

Dell Curry was standing near the loading dock at the Pepsi Center in Denver when Trail Blazers guard C.J. McCollum approached, gave him a big hug and asked, ''Which shirt are you wearing'' for the Western Conference final?

''Got to flip a coin,'' Curry responded.

Literally.

With sons Stephen and Seth Curry becoming the first siblings to face each other in an NBA conference final, it's a dilemma most any parent would love to have.

Dell and his wife, Sonya, decided wearing a split jersey with the Warriors and Blazers would be ''too easy.'' Instead, they'll flip a coin before each game in the best-of-seven series to determine which team they'll represent.

It will go something like this: If Sonya flips heads, she'll wear Blazers attire to support Seth, while Dell wears Stephen's Warriors colors. If the coin lands on tails, she'll dress in Warriors clothing while Dell dons Blazers gear.

The next game Dell gets to flip the coin, and so on - until the series is decided.

So who gets to flip the coin for Game 1 on Tuesday night?

''Well, we have to flip to see who flips first,'' Dell said with a laugh. ''There's going to be a lot of coin flipping going on.''

And a lot of traveling.

Dell and Sonya Curry plan to attend every game, sitting with Stephen's wife Ayesha at Warriors home games and with Seth's fiance Callie Rogers when the Blazers host.

But Dell, who played 16 seasons in the NBA and is currently a TV analyst for the Charlotte Hornets, said the entire situation is just a bit unnerving for him.

''I normally don't get nervous for games when either one of them play,'' he said. ''But I got a little nervous knowing how they're going to play against each other.''

As hard as this will be on the parents, Dell knows it will be even more difficult for his sons.

''It's going to be tough to put everything aside and battle each other because as siblings they want each other to do well,'' Dell said. ''They watch each other's games and cheer for each other.''

Earlier this year, the Curry boys competed against each other in the 3-point shootout at the All-Star game in their hometown of Charlotte, with 31-year-old Steph getting the best of his younger brother.

Seth, 28, said it's hard to believe they'll now meet in the playoffs.

''So many years I've watched Steph play in the Western Conference final, the NBA Finals, being in the crowd,'' Seth Curry said. ''It's going to be fun to be out there on the court, competing, to get to that final. It's a dream come true for us, but our families are going to have a lot of fun as well.''

Steph Curry has been to the NBA Finals four times, winning three with the Warriors. This is his brother's first playoff run.

''It would be great for Seth to get a (championship) ring, but we can't root for one son over the other,'' 54-year-old Dell Curry said. ''We're just going to let it play out and have fun watching them both play.''

Dell said it's been fun, and exhausting.

The Currys have been jetting around the country for the last month on commercial flights, back and forth between Oakland, Portland, Los Angeles, Denver and Houston to see their sons play. They've attended 21 of their sons' combined 24 playoff games, only missing two Blazers' first-round games in Oklahoma City and one second-round game in Denver.

Sometimes, they wake up in a hotel unsure of what city they're in.

''Everybody says to us, `you guys have to be tired,''' Dell said. ''I'm like, well, we'll probably sleep for a week when it's over.''