Cnotes 2018 - 2019 NBA Thru The Playoffs-Picks/Trends/News !

[Cnotes53]

591Toronto -592 Philadelphia
PHILADELPHIA is 46-24 ATS (19.6 Units) in home games versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game in the last 3 seasons.




NBA
Dunkel

Sunday, May 5


Toronto @ Philadelphia

Game 591-592
May 5, 2019 @ 3:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Toronto
124.380
Philadelphia
128.188
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Philadelphia
by 4
216
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Philadelphia
by 1 1/2
214 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Philadelphia
(-1 1/2); Over

Denver @ Portland

Game 593-594
May 5, 2019 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Denver
119.124
Portland
125.676
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Portland
by 6 1/2
229
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Portland
by 3
210
Dunkel Pick:
Portland
(-3); Over




NBA
Long Sheet

Sunday, May 5

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TORONTO (63 - 27) at PHILADELPHIA (57 - 33) - 5/5/2019, 3:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TORONTO is 6-14 ATS (-9.4 Units) after allowing 115 points or more this season.
TORONTO is 209-265 ATS (-82.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season since 1996.
PHILADELPHIA is 146-117 ATS (+17.3 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 54-36 ATS (+14.4 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) in home games when playing with 2 days rest over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 18-5 ATS (+12.5 Units) after a division game this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 32-19 ATS (+11.1 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 36-23 ATS (+10.7 Units) in home games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 48-30 ATS (+15.0 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 34-22 ATS (+9.8 Units) in home games versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 48-26 ATS (+19.4 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
TORONTO is 33-18 ATS (+13.2 Units) vs. division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 8-17 ATS (-10.7 Units) after a win by 10 points or more this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 18-29 ATS (-13.9 Units) after scoring 115 points or more this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
TORONTO is 9-6 against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
TORONTO is 10-5 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
8 of 15 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

DENVER (59 - 33) at PORTLAND (59 - 31) - 5/5/2019, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) in road games after scoring 115 points or more this season.
PORTLAND is 49-41 ATS (+3.9 Units) in all games this season.
PORTLAND is 32-22 ATS (+7.8 Units) as a favorite this season.
PORTLAND is 49-35 ATS (+10.5 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
PORTLAND is 37-25 ATS (+9.5 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
PORTLAND is 37-25 ATS (+9.5 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
DENVER is 9-5 against the spread versus PORTLAND over the last 3 seasons
DENVER is 8-7 straight up against PORTLAND over the last 3 seasons
10 of 15 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------




NBA
Armadillo's Write-Up

Sunday, May 5

Last two games, Leonard was 26-46 from floor; rest of Toronto?s team was 42-128 (32.8%) in losses by 5-21 points; home side won seven of last nine series games. 76ers? bench outscored Raptors? subs 49-20 in last two games. Embiid exploded for 33 points, 10 boards, five blocks in Game 3, after playing sick in Games 1-2. Raptors are 2-3 vs spread in last five visits here. Toronto is 5-3 in playoffs this month; they?re 12-4 in last 16 games overall, winning three of last five road games. 76ers won eight of their last 11 games; over is 13-9 in their last 22 games. Sixers were +20 in 24:00 with Ennis on floor in Game 3.

Portland won an all-time classic in four OT?s Friday; three Blazers played 56:00+. Jokic played 65:00 for Denver, missed FT with 0:05.8 that was costly- he had 33 points, 18 rebounds, 14 assists. Denver won seven of its last 10 games with Portland; six of last seven series games went over the total. Home side won seven of last nine series games, with Nuggets 3-2 vs spread in last five visits here. Portland won nine of its last 11 games overall; under is 4-2 in last six Portland wins; their last two losses went over. Denver?s last four road games went over. No one in game was better than +6; Denver was -10 in 12:00 with Plumlee on floor.




NBA

Sunday, May 5

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Toronto Raptors
Toronto is 10-5 ATS in its last 15 games
Toronto is 12-4 SU in its last 16 games
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Toronto's last 9 games
Toronto is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
Toronto is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Toronto's last 6 games on the road
Toronto is 14-6 ATS in its last 20 games when playing Philadelphia
Toronto is 20-5 SU in its last 25 games when playing Philadelphia
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Toronto's last 6 games when playing Philadelphia
Toronto is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
Toronto is 9-4 SU in its last 13 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
Toronto is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Toronto's last 10 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
Philadelphia 76ers
Philadelphia is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
Philadelphia is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 5 games
Philadelphia is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Philadelphia is 10-2 SU in its last 12 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Philadelphia's last 9 games at home
Philadelphia is 6-14 ATS in its last 20 games when playing Toronto
Philadelphia is 5-20 SU in its last 25 games when playing Toronto
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 6 games when playing Toronto
Philadelphia is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Toronto
Philadelphia is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Toronto
Philadelphia is 4-9 SU in its last 13 games when playing at home against Toronto
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Philadelphia's last 10 games when playing at home against Toronto

Denver Nuggets
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Denver's last 9 games
Denver is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Denver's last 5 games on the road
Denver is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Portland
Denver is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games when playing Portland
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Denver's last 7 games when playing Portland
Denver is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Portland
Denver is 3-17 SU in its last 20 games when playing on the road against Portland
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Denver's last 11 games when playing on the road against Portland
Portland Trail Blazers
Portland is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
Portland is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Portland's last 6 games
Portland is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 16 of Portland's last 20 games at home
Portland is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Denver
Portland is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games when playing Denver
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Portland's last 7 games when playing Denver
Portland is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Denver
Portland is 17-3 SU in its last 20 games when playing at home against Denver
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Portland's last 11 games when playing at home against Denver

 

[Cnotes53]

Sunday's Tip Sheet
Kevin Rogers

Eastern Conference Semifinals ? Game 4 (76ers lead 2-1)

Toronto at Philadelphia (ABC, 3:30 p.m. ET)

Toronto captured the series opener between these Atlantic division rivals and looked like the Raptors would cruise to the Eastern Conference Finals. However, the Sixers rebounded with a solid defensive effort in Game 2 to even up the series before ripping the Raptors, 116-95 in Game 3 to go up 2-1 in the Eastern Conference Semifinals.

The 76ers dropped 64 first half points on the Raptors, while all five starters for Philadelphia registered double-figures in scoring, led by Joel Embiid?s 33 points. Jimmy Butler contributed 22 points for the Sixers, while fellow midseason acquisition Tobias Harris put up 13 points and eight rebounds. Philadelphia shot 51% from the floor and converted 20-of-23 free throws as the Sixers limited the Raptors to only 14 points in the fourth quarter to cash the UNDER of 216 ?.

Kawhi Leonard did his part to keep Toronto hanging around by scoring 33 points, but point guard Kyle Lowry was limited to seven points on 2-of-10 shooting and owned a dreadful -28 in the plus/minus department. Pascal Siakam scored 20 points for the Raptors, but the forward is listed as doubtful for Game 4 with a calf injury. Siakam is having a terrific series by averaging 23.3 points per game, while the former New Mexico State standout has topped the 20-point mark six times in the playoffs.

The ?under? has gone 3-0 in the first three games of this series and the oddsmakers continue to drop the totals. Game 1 closed at 223, followed by 220 and 216 ? in the second and third installments. The total for Game 4 opened 215 and has been dropped to 214 ? as of Sunday. Chris David of VegasInsider.com isn?t buying the move.

He explained, ?Even though the results have leaned to the ?under? in this series, two of the first three games could?ve easily went ?over? if it wasn?t for a couple low-scoring fourth quarters. Neither team has connected from distance and I?m of the belief that the shots will eventually fall. These afternoon games aren?t easy to handicap but both teams have flourished in these 3:00-3:30 p.m. ET tipoffs, especially offensively. The Sixers have gone 5-1 in this time slot and the offense has averaged 122.3 PPG. Meanwhile, the Raptors have posted 118 PPG in afternoon games while averaging 118 PPG. I?m expecting more points to be scored and would lean high for both team totals over and the game ?over? as well.?

NBA expert Tony Mejia provides his thoughts on this pivotal Game 4, ??The potential absence of Siakam should be worth at least two points if he?s ruled out before tip-off and certainly would hurt the Raptors long-term, but in a one-game situation, may not be the end of the world. The 76ers really haven?t prepared to face a Toronto lineup without him, which means that Marc Gasol, Lowry and likely starter Serge Ibaka will have more touches in store and could find a rhythm that Philadelphia will have to adjust on the fly in order to disrupt.?

The Raptors are flipped to an underdog for the first time in the playoffs as Toronto compiled a 9-6 ATS mark when receiving points this season. However, Toronto has lost 11 of its past 13 games as a road underdog in the postseason dating back to the 2016 second round against Miami. The 76ers have won five of their last six as a playoff favorite, including a 5-3 SU/ATS mark when laying points at Wells Fargo Center since 2018.


Western Conference Semifinals ? Game 4 (Blazers lead 2-1)

Denver at Portland (TNT, 7:05 p.m. ET)

The Blazers have provided plenty of drama at the Moda Center these playoffs following a disappointing sweep at the hands of the Pelicans in last season?s first round. Damian Lillard single-handedly eliminated the Thunder on a buzzer-beating three-pointer to close out the first round, giving Portland a perfect 3-0 home mark to open the playoffs.

After Portland rebounded from a Game 1 loss at Denver, the Blazers? defense shut down the Nuggets in a 97-90 triumph at Pepsi Center to even the series at 1-1 headed back to the Pacific Northwest. Game 3 on Friday night was one to remember (and stay up late for) as the Blazers outlasted the Nuggets in four overtimes, 140-137. Denver cashed as five-point underdogs, while the game would have stayed UNDER the total of 215 if not for the extra sessions as regulation ended tied at 102-102.

Denver was on its way to a 2-1 series advantage following Jamal Murray?s three-pointer to give the Nuggets a 100-95 lead with under two minutes remaining in the fourth quarter. Maurice Harkless scored consecutive baskets for the Blazers, including a trey to even the score at 100 as the two division rivals exchanged two-pointers in the final 30 seconds to head to overtime.

Both teams owned four-point leads in the third overtime, including Denver?s 129-125 advantage with under 30 seconds remaining before Lillard converted a pair of layups to force the first four-overtime playoff game since 1953 between the Celtics and Syracuse Nationals. Rodney Hood knocked the go-ahead three-pointer in the fourth overtime with 18.6 seconds remaining to give Portland the lead for good and send Denver to its third road defeat in four tries this postseason.

Obviously there were huge scoring numbers all around with an extra 20 minutes of action as C.J. McCollum paced Portland with 41 points, while Lillard put up 28 points. Murray led the Nuggets by scoring 34 points, while triple-double machine Nikola Jokic posted 33 points, 18 rebounds, and 14 assists, but the center played 65 minutes.

How will the teams approach Game 4 following Friday?s marathon finish? Mejia is back to answer that question, ??The Blazers may have dealt the Nuggets a brutal blow by holding on to win the Game 3 marathon since they should have much fresher legs due to a much lighter first-round workload. Despite not having to deal with a tougher Oklahoma City team, Denver did itself no favors in being pushed to seven games by San Antonio and compounded its issues by fumbling away homecourt advantage in Game 2. From Murray playing through an injury to Jokic working 65 minutes, there?s no way anyone can dispute that Portland is in better shape, at home, to go up 3-1 than desperate Denver is as it attempts to even the series.?

Denver will get its points from Murray and Jokic, but what about the rest of Mike Malone?s squad?

?The great equalizer would be if we see an x-factor emerge. Will Barton finally got going and finished with 22 points off the bench, while Malik Beasley is capable of a huge impact from beyond the arc. Monte Morris, who was excellent as the backup point guard during the regular season and had four double-figure scoring games against the Spurs, is averaging 3.3 points in this series and has been a liability. He?s certainly capable of stepping up and can really provide a spark if he can find his game. If the Nuggets bench is outscored again, they stand no chance,? Mejia notes.

The Nuggets last dropped three consecutive games in early March, while winning straight games off a road loss dating back to mid-February. The Blazers are 4-2 in their previous six Game 4?s of a playoff series at the Moda Center with the two defeats coming to Golden State in the 2016 semifinals and 2017 opening round.

 

[Cnotes53]

SUNDAY, MAY 5
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

TOR at PHI 03:30 PM
PHI -2.5
U 214.5

DEN at POR 07:00 PM
DEN +3.0
U 210.5

 

[Cnotes53]

Raptors, Nuggets win to even NBA playoff series at 2-2
May 5, 2019
By The Associated Press

PHILADELPHIA (AP) Kawhi Leonard scored 39 points, including a clutch 3-pointer with 1:01 left, to help the Toronto Raptors beat the Philadelphia 76ers 101-96 on Sunday and even the Eastern Conference semifinal series at 2-2.

Marc Gasol scored 16, Kyle Lowry had 14 and the Raptors rebounded after consecutive losses to reclaim home-court advantage.

Game 5 is Tuesday night in Toronto.

Jimmy Butler scored 29 and JJ Redick had 19 for Philadelphia. The 76ers are trying to reach the conference finals for the first time since Allen Iverson led them to the NBA Finals in 2001.

NUGGETS 116, TRAIL BLAZERS 112

PORTLAND, Ore. (AP) - Nikola Jokic had 21 points, 12 rebounds and 11 assists for his second straight triple-double and fourth of the playoffs, and Denver evened its Western Conference semifinal series against Portland at 2-2.

Jamal Murray led all scorers with 34 points and made all 11 free throws for the Nuggets, who handed Portland their first postseason loss at home this season. The series now heads back to Denver for Game 5.

CJ McCollum had 29 points and Damian Lillard added 28 for the Blazers, who missed out on taking a 3-1 lead in a conference semifinals for the first time since 2000.

It was less than 48 hours after Portland's epic 140-137 quadruple-overtime victory to take a 2-1 lead in the series. It was only the second game in playoff history that went to four OTs. The other was in 1953.

 

[Cnotes53]

SCHEDULE FOR MONDAY MAY 6, 2019
Time (ET) Away Home Site
7:05 PM Milwaukee Bucks Boston Celtics TD Garden
9:35 PM Golden State Warriors Houston Rockets Toyota Center

SCHEDULE FOR TUESDAY MAY 7, 2019
Time (ET) Away Home Site
8:05 PM Philadelphia 76ers Toronto Raptors Scotiabank Arena
10:35 PM Portland Trail Blazers Denver Nuggets Pepsi Center

SCHEDULE FOR WEDNESDAY MAY 8, 2019
Time (ET) Away Home Site
8:05 PM Boston Celtics Milwaukee Bucks Fiserv Forum
10:35 PM Houston Rockets Golden State Warriors ORACLE Arena

SCHEDULE FOR THURSDAY MAY 9, 2019
Time (ET) Away Home Site
8:00 PM Toronto Raptors Philadelphia 76ers Wells Fargo Center
10:30 PM Denver Nuggets Portland Trail Blazers Moda Center at the Rose Quarter

SCHEDULE FOR FRIDAY MAY 10, 2019
Time (ET) Away Home Site
12:00 AM Golden State Warriors Houston Rockets Toyota Center
12:00 AM Milwaukee Bucks Boston Celtics TD Garden


********************************


NBA PLAYOFF RECORD OPINIONS AND BEST BETS !

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD


05/05/2019 2-2-0 50.00% -1.00
05/04/2019 2-0-0 100.00% +10.00
05/03/2019 1-3-0 25.00% -11.00
05/02/2019 2-0-0 100.00% +10.00
05/01/2019 1-1-0 50.00% -0.50

Totals...............8-6-0 57.14% +7.50


******************************


BEST BETS:

DATE........................ATS................... ..UNITS..................O/U..................UNITS.............TOTALS


05/05/2019.............1 - 1....................-0.50.....................1 - 1..................-0.50..............-1.00
05/04/2019.............1 - 0....................+5.00....................1 - 0.................+5.00.............+10.00
05/03/2019.............0 - 2....................-11.00...................1 - 1..................-0.50..............-11.50
05/02/2019.............1 - 0....................+5.00....................1 - 0.................+5.00.............+10.00
05/01/2019.............0 - 1.....................-5.50....................1 - 0.................+5.00..............-0.50


Totals.....................3 - 4.....................-7.00...................4 - 2.................+14.00.............+7.00


**************************

APRILS NBA BEST BETS


Totals....................23 - 21..................-0.50.................25 - 27................-19.50..............-20.00

 

[Cnotes53]

Armadillo: Monday's six-pack

? Nuggets 116, Trailblazers 112? Murray scored 34 points for Denver.

? Raptors 101, 76ers 96? Non-Leonard Raptors shot 39.3%, an improvement.

? Braves 3, Marlins 1 (10)? Miami falls to 9-24; Inciarte?s double won the game.

? Red Sox 9, White Sox 2? Boston scored seven times in 8th inning.

? Tigers 5, Royals 2 (10)? Brandon Dixon hit a walkoff tater for Detroit.

? Rockies 8, Diamondbacks 7? Colorado scored five times in 8th inning.


**********

Armadillo: Monday's Den: Early Week 1 NFL trends??

Green Bay @ Chicago? Packers won last four season openers, but lost five of last seven road openers; over is 11-2 in their last 13 RO?s. Chicago started 0-1 the last five years; they lost four of last five home openers (under 3-1-1).

Atlanta @ Minnesota? Falcons won three of last four road openers; they split last eight season openers. Five of their last six RO?s stayed under. Minnesota won four of last five season openers; they won/covered their last four home openers- Vikings? last five HO?s stayed under.

Washington @ Philadelphia? Redskins snapped a 5-game skid on Opening Day LY; they won last three road openers. Over is 7-3 in their last ten RO?s. Philly started 1-0 in seven of last eight seasons; they won four of last five home openers (under 4-1).

Buffalo at Jets? Bills are opening on road for first time in five years; they lost last three road openers, scoring 7-3-3 points. Since 2002, they?re 9-7 vs spread as an underdog in their RO. Jets won six of their last eight home openers.

Baltimore @ Miami? Ravens won last three Week 1 games by combined score of 80-10; they?re 7-4 vs spread in last 11 road openers. Over is 8-3-1 in their last dozen RO?s. Miami covered five of its last six home openers (4-2 SU). Dolphins? last ten home openers stayed under the total; nine of their last ten RO?s went over.

San Francisco @ Tampa Bay? 49ers lost last four road openers (1-3 vs spread), losing by average of 13.8 ppg; four of their last six road openers stayed under. Tampa Bay won its last two Week 1 games, scoring 31-48 points; they didn?t play in Week 1 in 2017 because of a hurricane. Arians was 2-3 in openers while he was Arizona?s coach.

Kansas City @ Jacksonville? Chiefs won last four season openers; they covered five of last six road openers. Over is 5-3 in last eight RO?s. Jacksonville won its last two season openers, but lost six of last seven home openers- they?re 3-9 vs spread in 12 HO?s. Four of their last five home openers went over.

Tennessee @ Cleveland? Since re-joining NFL in 1999, Browns are 1-18-1 in Week 1; they tied Steelers in LY?s opener. Cleveland did cover five of last seven home openers. Titans lost last three season openers, but won/covered five of last six road openers.

Rams @ Carolina? Under McVay, Rams won their season openers 46-9/33-13; since 2000, they?re 4-15 vs spread in road openers (4-5 in last nine). Four of their last five road openers stayed under total. Carolina won its last five home openers, allowing 8-3 point last two years; they won four of last five season openers. Under is 5-1 in their last six HO?s.

Detroit @ Arizona? Detroit started six of last eight seasons 1-0; Lions covered last three road openers; over is 9-4-1 in their last 14. Cardinals lost last three home openers, scoring 14.7 ppg; six of their last seven home openers stayed under.

Cincinnati @ Seattle? Seahawks won their last ten home openers (8-2 vs spread); under is 15-2-1 in their last 18 HO?s. Bengals won four of last five road openers; eight of their last nine RO?s went over total. Cincy won four of last five Week 1 games. Seattle

Indianapolis @ Chargers? Colts lost seven of last nine road openers; they?ve started last five seasons 0-1. Indy?s last three season openers went over. Chargers lost last two home openers and winning six of previous seven; 13 of their last 16 HO?s went over. Bolts started last three seasons 0-1.

Giants @ Dallas? Giants lost seven of last eight season openers; they?re playing road opener in Dallas for 6th time in last seven years. NY is 2-7 in last nine RO?s overall, 1-4 in last five RO?s here- their last three RO?s stayed under. Dallas won six of last eight home openers; they split last ten season openers, with four of last five staying under.

Pittsburgh @ New England? Pitt opens on road for 5th straight year. Since 1997, Steelers are 1-8-1 vs spread when an underdog in their road opener; five of their last six RO?s stayed under. Patriots won 15 of last 17 home openers, but are 2-4-1 vs spread in last seven (under 5-2). NE started 13 of last 15 seasons 1-0, losing in ?14/?17.

Houston @ New Orleans? Saints started last five seasons 0-1; NO lost its last four home openers and were favored in three of them- last three went over total, with Saints giving up 35-36-48 points. Texans lost three of last four road openers (under 4-0); in franchise history, they?re 4-8 vs spread in RO?s.

Denver @ Oakland? Broncos are opening on road for first time since 2010; they won last seven season openers, but obviously, all of them were in Denver. Broncos are 7-8 in last 15 road openers, with three of last four going over total. Raiders lost four of last five home openers; since 2003, they?re 4-12 vs spread in HO?s, with four of last five going over.

 

[Cnotes53]

 

[Cnotes53]

501Milwaukee -502 Boston
BOSTON is 12-2 ATS (9.8 Units) in home games in playoff games over the last 2 seasons.

503Golden State -504 Houston
GOLDEN STATE is 8-1 ATS (6.9 Units) in road games revenging a same season loss vs opponent in the current season.


NBA
Long Sheet

Monday, May 6

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MILWAUKEE (66 - 23) at BOSTON (54 - 35) - 5/6/2019, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MILWAUKEE is 213-259 ATS (-71.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season since 1996.
BOSTON is 103-81 ATS (+13.9 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 34-22 ATS (+9.8 Units) against Central division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) in home games in all playoff games over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 60-42 ATS (+13.8 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 3 seasons.
BOSTON is 55-41 ATS (+9.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 73-56 ATS (+11.4 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 53-33 ATS (+16.7 Units) in all games this season.
MILWAUKEE is 42-30 ATS (+9.0 Units) when the total is greater than or equal to 220 this season.
MILWAUKEE is 27-15 ATS (+10.5 Units) in road games this season.
MILWAUKEE is 23-13 ATS (+8.7 Units) in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 220 this season.
MILWAUKEE is 143-104 ATS (+28.6 Units) in road games against Atlantic division opponents since 1996.
MILWAUKEE is 19-6 ATS (+12.4 Units) after allowing 115 points or more this season.
MILWAUKEE is 64-39 ATS (+21.1 Units) in road games after scoring 115 points or more since 1996.
MILWAUKEE is 43-28 ATS (+12.2 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season.
MILWAUKEE is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) in road games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.
MILWAUKEE is 42-26 ATS (+13.4 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season.
MILWAUKEE is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.
BOSTON is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in home games after allowing 115 points or more over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
BOSTON is 13-7 against the spread versus MILWAUKEE over the last 3 seasons
BOSTON is 10-10 straight up against MILWAUKEE over the last 3 seasons
13 of 19 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

GOLDEN STATE (63 - 28) at HOUSTON (58 - 32) - 5/6/2019, 9:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GOLDEN STATE is 39-51 ATS (-17.1 Units) in all games this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 49-64 ATS (-21.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 31-46 ATS (-19.6 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 16-25 ATS (-11.5 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 32-40 ATS (-12.0 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season.
HOUSTON is 26-17 ATS (+7.3 Units) in home games this season.
HOUSTON is 28-18 ATS (+8.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
HOUSTON is 40-27 ATS (+10.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 72-49 ATS (+18.1 Units) in all playoff games since 1996.
GOLDEN STATE is 90-63 ATS (+20.7 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season since 1996.
HOUSTON is 13-24 ATS (-13.4 Units) in home games after scoring 115 points or more over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 11-9 against the spread versus GOLDEN STATE over the last 3 seasons
GOLDEN STATE is 11-10 straight up against HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
14 of 21 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


NBA
Armadillo's Write-Up

Monday, May 6

Antetokounmpo got to foul line 40 times in last two games, after taking only 10 FT?s in Game 1; Greek Freak scored 32, with 13 rebounds, 8 assists in Game 3 road win. Hill scored 21 in 29:00 off bench Friday. Milwaukee lost three of last five visits to Beantown; home side won 11 of last 13 series games; Bucks won six of last seven games overall, covering last four road games. irving/Brown shot combined 14-36 in Game 3, are 23-66 last two games. Boston was +10 in 31:00 with Brown on floor, -17 in 17:00 he was out. Celtics are 5-2-1 vs spread in last eight games overall. Five of last seven series games went over the total.


NBA

Monday, May 6

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Milwaukee Bucks
Milwaukee is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
Milwaukee is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Milwaukee's last 6 games
Milwaukee is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Milwaukee is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Milwaukee's last 5 games on the road
Milwaukee is 5-11 ATS in its last 16 games when playing Boston
Milwaukee is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Boston
The total has gone OVER in 11 of Milwaukee's last 15 games when playing Boston
Milwaukee is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Boston
Milwaukee is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Boston
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Milwaukee's last 9 games when playing on the road against Boston
Boston Celtics
Boston is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games
Boston is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone OVER in 15 of Boston's last 23 games
Boston is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 games at home
Boston is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Boston's last 6 games at home
Boston is 11-5 ATS in its last 16 games when playing Milwaukee
Boston is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Milwaukee
The total has gone OVER in 11 of Boston's last 15 games when playing Milwaukee
Boston is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games when playing at home against Milwaukee
Boston is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against Milwaukee
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Boston's last 9 games when playing at home against Milwaukee

Golden State Warriors
Golden State is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
Golden State is 12-4 SU in its last 16 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Golden State's last 5 games
Golden State is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Golden State is 18-7 SU in its last 25 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Golden State's last 5 games on the road
Golden State is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Golden State's last 12 games when playing Houston
Golden State is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Houston
Golden State is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Golden State's last 5 games when playing on the road against Houston
Houston Rockets
Houston is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 games
Houston is 11-4 SU in its last 15 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 6 games
Houston is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games at home
Houston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Houston's last 12 games at home
Houston is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Golden State
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Houston's last 12 games when playing Golden State
Houston is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Golden State
Houston is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Golden State
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games when playing at home against Golden State


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NBA
Dunkel

Monday, May 6


Milwaukee @ Boston

Game 501-502
May 6, 2019 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Milwaukee
126.417
Boston
122.609
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Milwaukee
by 4
227
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Boston
by 1 1/2
220 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Milwaukee
(+1 1/2); Over

Golden State @ Houston

Game 503-504
May 6, 2019 @ 9:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Golden State
127.639
Houston
125.555
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Golden State
by 2
232
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Houston
by 1 1/2
221
Dunkel Pick:
Golden State
(+1 1/2); Over

 

[Cnotes53]

Monday's Tip Sheet
Kevin Rogers

Eastern Conference Semifinals ? Game 4 (Bucks lead 2-1)

Milwaukee at Boston (TNT, 7:05 p.m. ET)

The Celtics surprised the team with the best record in the NBA in the Eastern Conference semifinals opener by routing the Bucks, 112-90. However, it?s Boston now sitting in a 2-1 hole against Milwaukee after dropping consecutive games to the Bucks, while losing a rare home game in the playoffs.

When these teams hooked up in the first round last season, the home squad posted a perfect 7-0 record, capped off by Boston winning Game 7 at TD Garden. Through three games in the second round, the home team has lost two of three times, as Boston fell to Milwaukee on Friday, 123-116 to suffer its playoff defeat in Beantown since Game 7 of the Eastern Conference Finals last season to Cleveland.

The Celtics lost for the second time in the previous 14 home playoff contests in Game 3 in spite of holding a 12-point first half advantage. The Bucks overcame a 46-34 deficit to cut the Boston lead to 56-55 at halftime, while using their trademark third quarter run (40-31) to lead heading into the fourth quarter.

Giannis Antetokounmpo put together his best game of the series for Milwaukee with 32 points, 13 rebounds, and eight assists. The last time the Celtics lost a home playoff game, George Hill was on the opposing side with the Cavaliers. In Game 3, Hill posted a 21-point effort off the bench, which is two points more than he produced in the first two games combined.

Kyrie Irving struggled from the floor for Boston by hitting 8-of-22 shots, but the All-Star guard knocked down 11 free throws to lead the Celtics with 29 points. Jayson Tatum added 20 points for the Celtics, although he misfired on all five of his three-point attempts. The two teams combined to attempt 68 free throws as the Bucks won in spite of missing 12 shots at the charity stripe.

Chris David was impressed with Milwaukee?s win on Friday and he believes the Bucks can go up 3-1 on Monday.

He explained his handicap, ?It?s apparent that defense doesn?t win championships in the NBA these days, rather shooting and the Bucks firepower has been on display in each of the last two games in this series. They?ve hit 35 bombs from 3-point land in the wins and that?s led to a pair of 123-point performances. Milwaukee shooting guard Khris Middleton has connected on 65 percent (13-of-20) shots from distance and it?s become apparent that the absence of Marcus Smart for the Celtics has been felt on the defensive side of the ball in this matchup.?

David added, ?The betting public is expecting Boston to earn the win in Game 4 and make it a best-of-three series headed back to Milwaukee at 2-2. While that lean could be argued based on the Celtics strong record at home, a couple trends has me pumping the breaks. For starters, Boston is just 19-16 off a loss this season. Second, how do you go against the Bucks as underdogs? Milwaukee is 7-3 SU and 8-2 ATS when catching points and Giannis sat out one of those losses. In the other two defeats, both came by exactly four points. If you?re looking for other trends to back the visitor in Game 4, make a note that Milwaukee went 11-2 on Monday this season while Boston struggled to a 6-7 mark in that spot.?

The ?halftime adjustments? are certainly working for Milwaukee, according to NBA expert Tony Mejia, ?The Celtics face a must-win given the circumstances, but have to solve the third-quarter spell the Bucks have cast over them the past two games, outscoring them 79-49. Perhaps getting Smart back will help set a better tone coming out of the break, but Milwaukee outscored Detroit in every one of its first-round games and ended up with a combined margin of 134-73. The Celtics won the series opener by dominating the third quarter but it?s hard to imagine that getting another 3-point barrage from Al Horford, Marcus Morris and Jaylen Brown is sustainable. Riding Milwaukee for the quarter and the second-half is highly recommended.?

Boston has won six consecutive playoff games under Brad Stevens when coming off back-to-back losses since getting swept by Cleveland in the opening round back in 2015. Milwaukee has won and covered in all seven playoff victories, as the last time the Bucks lost as a road underdog and failed to cover came at Boston back on November 1 in a 117-113 defeat as 2 ?-point ?dogs.


Western Conference Semifinals ? Game 4 (Warriors lead 2-1)

Golden State at Houston (TNT, 9:35 p.m. ET)

The home team has won each of the first three games between the Warriors and Rockets as Houston finally broke through on Saturday night. The Rockets staved off the two-time defending champions, 126-121 in overtime to cash as 3 ?-point favorites and improve to 4-0 at the Toyota Center in the playoffs.

Houston built a 13-point third quarter advantage before Golden State posted a 15-2 run to grab a 94-93 edge only two minutes into the fourth quarter. The two Western powers went back and forth until Andre Iguodala?s three-pointer put Golden State in front, 112-110 with 45 seconds remaining. James Harden knocked down a pair of free throws on the following possession to force overtime as the Rockets outscored the Warriors, 14-9 in the extra five minute session to grab their second cover in the series.

Harden led the Rockets with 41 points, but his former Thunder teammate Kevin Durant put together a 46-point night for his third 40+ point performance of the postseason. Durant has been fantastic during the postseason but the same can?t be said for his superstar teammate Stephen Curry, who has not scored more than 20 points in a game against Houston. Curry was limited to 17 points on 7-of-23 shooting, including 2-of-9 from three-point range, but Draymond Green stepped up with 19 points, 11 rebounds, and 10 assists for his second triple-double of the playoffs.

The Warriors have bounced back nicely off a loss during this postseason by picking up victories of 27 and 19 points (both on the road) against the Clippers. Dating back to the 2017 playoffs, Golden State has won seven of eight games off a defeat, with all three victories on the road coming by double-digits.

Mejia says that Golden State needs to figure out the Curry situation to be successful in this series, ?It will be interesting to see how Steve Kerr approaches getting Curry off after his lack of rhythm ultimately helped cost the Warriors Game 3, but with the Rockets certain to sell out and run extra bodies at him, it?s going to be important that Iguodala and Green take advantage of open looks. Both did their part in helping put Golden State in position to claim Game 3, while Eric Gordon and Iman Shumpert stepped up similarly for the Rockets.?

?If those four can continue efficiently punishing the opposing defense for trying to take away more accomplished scorers, the pace is likely to be similar to Game 3, which produced an ?over? in regulation. If you?re of the opinion that can?t continue, there?s a chance this game gets bogged down multiple times to allow the low-side to thrive,? Mejia notes.

The last time Golden State dropped consecutive road playoff games occurred in the 2016 Western Conference Finals against Oklahoma City in Games 3 and 4 of that series, while Houston defeated Golden State in back-to-back contests in last season?s Western Conference Finals before losing the final two games of the series.

 

[Cnotes53]

MONDAY, MAY 6
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

MIL at BOS 07:00 PM
BOS -1.5
U 220.0

GS at HOU 09:30 PM
GS +1.5
U 220.0

 

[Cnotes53]

Giannis has 39, Bucks beat Celtics 113-101, lead series 3-1
May 6, 2019
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BOSTON (AP) When Giannis Antetokounmpo picked up his fourth foul early in the third quarter of a tie game, the Boston Celtics sensed a chance to pull away.

Instead, Milwaukee took control.

Of the game, and the series.

Antetokounmpo watched the Bucks bench open a double-digit lead, then returned with a dominating fourth quarter to finish with 39 points and 16 rebounds as Milwaukee beat Boston 113-101 on Monday night to move one win from its first trip to the Eastern Conference finals since 2001.

''If we're honest with you, when Giannis and Khris (Middleton) go to the bench, you're concerned,'' Bucks coach Mike Budenholzer said after his reserves outscored Boston's 32-7 in the game and turned a 59-all tie into a 78-68 lead. ''But you have confidence that that group can play.''

George Hill scored 15 points - nine in the third quarter - and Pat Connaughton had nine points and 10 rebounds off the bench for Milwaukee, which outscored Boston's bench 42-16 in Game 3. After sitting out the last 8:18 of the third quarter, Antetokounmpo scored 17 points with seven rebounds in the fourth to help the Bucks pull away.

''It's always hard to take out Giannis; let's start there. But at the end of the day, we are conscious of trying to keep him fresh,'' Budenholzer said. ''It's hard to find the words (for) what he does for our team, both ends of the court. He's special, but he's very hungry. He wants more, and he's playing that way.''

The Bucks have won three straight since losing the opener of the best-of-seven series at home and can eliminate the Celtics in Game 5 at home on Wednesday night. They have not reached the East finals since the `01 team of Ray Allen and Glenn Robinson fell to Philadelphia's Allen Iverson and Dikembe Mutombo in seven games.

''Good players, when they have an opportunity like this, they don't waste it,'' Antetokounmpo said. ''At the end of the day, I've got to do whatever it takes to help my team win.''

SUMMER TIME

In what might be his last home game for the Celtics, Kyrie Irving scored 23 points with 10 assists. But he was 7 for 22 from the floor, including 1 for 7 from 3-point range.

''Who cares? I'm a basketball player,'' said the six-time All-Star, who can become a free agent this summer. ''I'm trying to do it all. For me, the 22 shots - I should have shot 30.''

After leading all scorers with 26 points in Boston's Game 1 blowout, Irving has made 19 of 62 shots and just 4 of 20 from 3-point range. He left the court with a few seconds remaining on the clock; many in the crowd had already headed for the exits, but a lone fan shouted at Irving, ''Don't leave!''

''I know probably to the outside world we probably don't stand much of a chance,'' Celtics Center Al Horford, who scored 20. ''We're at a low point as a group, I guess that's the reality. We'll have to bring that fight to them on Wednesday.''

DIFFERENT YEARS

Boston beat Milwaukee in seven games in the first round last year and went on to lose to LeBron James and the Cavaliers in seven games in last year's conference finals. They will have to win three straight - two of them on the road - to return.

''I know probably to the outside world we probably don't stand much of a chance,'' said Celtics Center Al Horford, who scored 20. ''We're at a low point as a group, I guess that's the reality. We'll have to bring that fight to them on Wednesday.''

Marcus Morris Sr. scored 18 with 14 rebounds, and Jayson Tatum had 17 points and 10 boards for Boston.

EARLY RUNS

Boston led by as many as 11 points before Connaughton made a long 3 at the first-quarter buzzer to make it 30-22. With about five minutes left in the second, the Bucks scored eight straight points to tie it.

Boston led 67-65 before Milwaukee scored 13 of the next 14 points - seven of them by Hill, and all of them with Antetokounmpo on the bench - to open a double-digit lead.

''Yeah that was killer,'' Celtics coach Brad Stevens said. ''Their bench comes in, they've had no dropoff. Connaughton's been excellent. George Hill's been absolutely tremendous.''

TIP-INS

Milwaukee has won four straight road playoff games. ... Marcus Smart, who has been out since tearing a muscle in his side during the second-to-last game of the regular season, played 15 minutes and scored three points, making 1 of 7 attempts from 3-point range. ... It was Antetokounmpo's eighth career 30-point playoff game, tying Marques Johnson for second in franchise history.

UP NEXT

Game 5 is Wednesday in Milwaukee.

 

[Cnotes53]

Harden scores 38 as Rockets even series with Warriors
May 6, 2019
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HOUSTON (AP) James Harden scored 38 points and the Houston Rockets held on for a 112-108 win over the Golden State Warriors on Monday night to even their Western Conference semifinals series at 2-2.

The Rockets were up by nine before the Golden State scored the next seven points, capped by a 3 from Stephen Curry, to get within 110-108 with 19 seconds left. Harden made one of two free throws with 11.5 seconds left. Kevin Durant missed a 3 after that. But the Warriors got the rebound and Curry also missed a 3-point attempt before Golden State was forced to foul Chris Paul.

He made one of two free throws with 2.9 seconds left to secure the victory.

After losing the first two games of the series on the road, the Rockets head back to Golden State for Game 5 on Wednesday night with momentum on their side after their overtime win in Game 3 before Monday night's victory.

The Warriors got 34 points from Kevin Durant, who had 46 in the Game 3 loss. Curry, who was criticized after shooting 7 for 23 in Game 3, got off to a good start, scoring 11 points in the first quarter. He cooled off after that, but finished with 30 points on 12 of 25 shooting.

Eric Gordon added 20 points for Houston and P.J. Tucker had 17 points and 10 rebounds.

Houston made 17 of its 50 3-point attempts, while the Warriors shot just 8 of 33 from downtown with Curry making just 4 of his 14 attempts.

The Rockets were up by nine after three and used an 8-2 run, with four points from Harden, to open the fourth and extend the lead to 101-86. Golden State used an 8-3 run, with six points from Draymond Green, to cut it to 104-94 midway through the quarter.

Houston had a 10-point lead with about four minutes left before a 5-2 run, with a 3 from Curry, got them within 108-101.

Green was shaken up when Harden inadvertently knocked him in the head on the follow through after he made a 3-pointer that put Houston up 71-59 with nine minutes left in the third quarter. Green fell to the court where he remained holding the left side of his head for a couple of minutes. The Warriors called a timeout and he collected himself and remained in the game. The lead grew to 77-60 before Golden State got going.

TIP-INS

Warriors: Green had 15 points and 10 rebounds. ... Thompson made 11 points on 5 of 15 shooting. ... Golden State trailed by as many as 17 in the second half before its late surge.

Rockets: Danuel House missed his second straight game with inflammation in one of his toes. ... Tucker has scored at least 10 points in six of Houston's nine playoff games this season and Monday was his third straight game with at least 10 rebounds. ... Austin Rivers had 10 points.

UP NEXT

Game 6 will be in Houston on Friday night.

 

[Cnotes53]

SCHEDULE FOR TUESDAY MAY 7, 2019
Time (ET) Away Home Site
8:05 PM Philadelphia 76ers Toronto Raptors Scotiabank Arena
10:35 PM Portland Trail Blazers Denver Nuggets Pepsi Center

SCHEDULE FOR WEDNESDAY MAY 8, 2019
Time (ET) Away Home Site
8:05 PM Boston Celtics Milwaukee Bucks Fiserv Forum
10:35 PM Houston Rockets Golden State Warriors ORACLE Arena

SCHEDULE FOR THURSDAY MAY 9, 2019
Time (ET) Away Home Site
8:05 PM Toronto Raptors Philadelphia 76ers Wells Fargo Center
10:35 PM Denver Nuggets Portland Trail Blazers Moda Center at the Rose Quarter

SCHEDULE FOR FRIDAY MAY 10, 2019
Time (ET) Away Home Site
3:00 PM Golden State Warriors Houston Rockets Toyota Center
3:00 PM Milwaukee Bucks Boston Celtics TD Garden


*************************


NBA PLAYOFF RECORD OPINIONS AND BEST BETS !

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD

05/06/2019 1-2-1 33.33% -6.00
05/05/2019 2-2-0 50.00% -1.00
05/04/2019 2-0-0 100.00% +10.00
05/03/2019 1-3-0 25.00% -11.00
05/02/2019 2-0-0 100.00% +10.00
05/01/2019 1-1-0 50.00% -0.50

Totals...............9-8-1 52.94% +1.50


******************************


BEST BETS:

DATE........................ATS................... ..UNITS..................O/U..................UNITS.............TOTALS

05/06/2019.............0 - 2....................-11.00...................1 - 0..................+5.00.............-6.00
05/05/2019.............1 - 1....................-0.50.....................1 - 1..................-0.50..............-1.00
05/04/2019.............1 - 0....................+5.00....................1 - 0.................+5.00.............+10.00
05/03/2019.............0 - 2....................-11.00...................1 - 1..................-0.50..............-11.50
05/02/2019.............1 - 0....................+5.00....................1 - 0.................+5.00.............+10.00
05/01/2019.............0 - 1.....................-5.50....................1 - 0.................+5.00..............-0.50


Totals.....................3 - 6.....................-18.00...................6 - 2.................+19.00.............+1.00


**************************

APRILS NBA BEST BETS


Totals....................23 - 21..................-0.50.................25 - 27................-19.50..............-20.00

 

[Cnotes53]

Tuesday?s 6-pack

Some college football over/under win totals from New Jersey books:
? Alabama 11, under -$121
? Clemson 11, over -$139
? Georgia 10.5, over -$182
? Oklahoma 10, over -$148
? Ohio State 10, under -$121
? Boise State 10, under -$118

Quote of the Day
?Don?t ever have a rule that you won?t enforce with your best player.?
Doug Collins

Tuesday?s quiz
When was the last time the NBA Finals went to a 7th game?

Monday?s quiz
Chicago Bulls (24-11, .686) have the best W-L %age in NBA Finals games. San Antonio (23-11, .676) have the next-best record.

Sunday?s quiz
When the Rockets first came into the NBA, they were the San Diego Rockets.

***********************

Tuesday?s List of 13: Nobody asked me, but??

13) From metsblog.com:
?These baseballs suck. They?re more slick and the seams are more smooth and hard to grip.?

That is a major league relief pitcher, talking about this year?s batch of baseballs.

Noah Syndergaard told reporters last week that gripping a baseball on a cold night has felt like trying to throw an ice cube.

From Robert Arthur, who provides pitch-tracking information in every ballpark:
?As baseballs become more aerodynamic, they travel further given a certain initial velocity. A deep fly ball that might have been caught at the warning track can instead (with just a three percent change in drag) go into the first row of the stands (for a home run).?

So if you?re wondering why home runs are on the increase again, this is part of why.

12) Hollywood producer Jerry Bruckheimer will be a minority owner of the new Seattle team in the NHL, which will begin play in the fall of 2021.

Bruckheimer produced the CSI shows, Without a Trace as well as numerous movies, like Top Gun and Beverly Hills Cop.

11) Of the 32 teams in the NFL, 15 will have a play-caller this season who is in his first full year calling plays for that team.

10) Sunday afternoon against the Giants, Eugenio Suarez, Jesse Winker and Derek Dietrich of the Reds hit back-to-back-to-back homers on three straight pitches off Jeff Samardzija.

Last team to do this was the Dodgers on June 12, 2007: Wilson Betemit, Matt Kemp and Hong-Chih Kuo all homered off the Mets? John Maine.

9) This year the Reds are celebrating their team?s 150th anniversary; they?re wearing 15 different sets of throwback uniforms this season, to commemorate various eras in their long history. Sunday?s uniforms were actually dark blue, with red lettering.

8) Max Homa won the Wells Fargo golf tournament this past weekend; coming into the week, Homa was ranked 417th in the world. Now he is a millionaire and exempt on tour for the next 2.5 years, so a big four days for him. Golf is a really, really competitive sport.

7) Baseball injuries:
? Red Sox put P David Price (elbow) on IL.
? Nationals put 1B Matt Adams (shoulder) on IL.
? Mets put P Jason Vargas (hamstring) on IL.

6) When the Red Sox go to the White House Thursday to be honored for winning the World Series, manager Alex Cora, who is from Puerto Rico, won?t be there. He isn?t happy how the government responded to Hurricane Maria last year:

?Although the government of the United States has helped, there is still a long way to go, that is OUR reality. I have continually used my voice so that we Puerto Ricans are not forgotten and my absence is not different. Therefore, at this moment, I do not feel comfortable celebrating in the White House.?

David Price, Mookie Betts and Rafael Devers will also be no-shows Thursday.

5) How has Brewers? CF Lorenzo Cain never won a Gold Glove? Guy plays a great centerfield. He made another great catch against the Mets Sunday, crashing into the fence in right-center but hanging onto the ball.

4) Interesting trade in our fantasy league Sunday night; this is a 16-team dynasty league, where you keep your roster from year-to-year.

Team A traded Mike Trout, Max Scherzer and Robbie Ray. In return, they got Yordan Alvarez, Keston Hiura and Brendan Rodgers, three of the best minor league prospects, all at the AAA level. Was really surprised to see Trout get dealt; wonder if the Angels will ever do that?

Team A is the defending champ in our league but is 0-4-1 so far this season, so they decided to build for the future; time will tell who won this trade.
3) I wasted a decent amount of space this spring writing about the AAF, so I won?t be writing a lot about the XFL until it proves it has staying power, but the XFL did sign a TV deal with ABC and FOX this week. All 43 games will be shown somewhere on network TV next spring.

2) College basketball transfer portal:
? Clemson poached grad transfer Curran Scott (8.9 ppg LY) from Tulsa.
? UNLV F Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua jumps from UNLV to Baylor.


1) Oakland A?s on Sundays so far this season:
? W2-1 vs Angels.
? L9-8 @ Houston? Led 8-6 in 8th inning.
? L8-7 @ Texas? Led 7-4 in 8th inning.
? L5-4 vs Toronto? Blue Jays swept series in Oakland.
? L5-4 @ Toronto (11)? Led 4-1 in the 11th.
? L5-3 @ Pittsburgh (13)? Led 3-1 in the 13th.

 

[Cnotes53]

 

[Cnotes53]

505Philadelphia -506 Toronto
TORONTO is 15-3 ATS (11.7 Units) in home games vs. division opponents over the last 2 seasons.

507Portland -508 Denver
PORTLAND is 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 3+ per game in the current season.


NBA
Long Sheet

Tuesday, May 7

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

PHILADELPHIA (57 - 34) at TORONTO (64 - 27) - 5/7/2019, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHILADELPHIA is 7-17 ATS (-11.7 Units) in road games vs. division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
TORONTO is 15-3 ATS (+11.7 Units) in home games vs. division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 146-118 ATS (+16.2 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 76-57 ATS (+13.3 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 18-6 ATS (+11.4 Units) after a division game this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 39-20 ATS (+17.0 Units) revenging a home loss vs opponent over the last 3 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 80-58 ATS (+16.2 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 3 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 48-31 ATS (+13.9 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 81-58 ATS (+17.2 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 48-27 ATS (+18.3 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
TORONTO is 210-265 ATS (-81.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
TORONTO is 10-6 against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
TORONTO is 11-5 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
8 of 16 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

PORTLAND (59 - 32) at DENVER (60 - 33) - 5/7/2019, 10:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 28-19 ATS (+7.1 Units) in home games this season.
DENVER is 14-6 ATS (+7.4 Units) vs. division opponents this season.
PORTLAND is 94-76 ATS (+10.4 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
PORTLAND is 48-31 ATS (+13.9 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
DENVER is 10-5 against the spread versus PORTLAND over the last 3 seasons
DENVER is 9-7 straight up against PORTLAND over the last 3 seasons
11 of 16 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


NBA
Armadillo's Write-Up

Tuesday, May 7

Leonard scored 39 in Game 3; this time his teammates were little more supportive (22-56, 39.3%) than in first two games (32.8%). Raptors? bench outscored Philly?s 12-11, after being outscored 49-20 in previous two games. Simmons had 10 points, five boards, four assists in Game 4; they need lot more from him than that. 76ers have been held to 96 or fewer points in three of four series games; they won by 21 the one big game Embiid had (9-18 in Game 3, 9-32 in other three games combined). Home side won seven of last ten series games. 76ers won eight of their last 12 games overall; over is 13-10 in their last 23 games.

Denver outscored Portland 27-14 in third quarter of 116-112 Game 4 win, evening series 2-2 after Friday?s 4-OT loss. Blazers? bench was +36 Sunday; their starters -56- Seth Curry had 16 points off bench. Murray had 34 for Nuggets, who won eight of last 11 games with Portland; seven of last eight series games went over the total. Home side won seven of last ten series games. Under is 4-2 in Blazers? last six wins; three of their last four losses went over. Nuggets? bench was -35 in Game 4; they were -16 in 16:00 Plumlee played, are -26 in his last 28:00 in series. Nokic had a triple-double in Game 4, 48 hours after playing 65:00 in Friday?s marathon.


NBA

Tuesday, May 7

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
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Philadelphia 76ers
Philadelphia is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games
Philadelphia is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 5 games
Philadelphia is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Philadelphia is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 6 games on the road
Philadelphia is 6-15 ATS in its last 21 games when playing Toronto
Philadelphia is 5-20 SU in its last 25 games when playing Toronto
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 5 games when playing Toronto
Philadelphia is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Toronto
Philadelphia is 1-14 SU in its last 15 games when playing on the road against Toronto
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 5 games when playing on the road against Toronto
Toronto Raptors
Toronto is 11-5 ATS in its last 16 games
Toronto is 13-4 SU in its last 17 games
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Toronto's last 10 games
Toronto is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games at home
Toronto is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Toronto's last 5 games at home
Toronto is 15-6 ATS in its last 21 games when playing Philadelphia
Toronto is 20-5 SU in its last 25 games when playing Philadelphia
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Toronto's last 5 games when playing Philadelphia
Toronto is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Philadelphia
Toronto is 14-1 SU in its last 15 games when playing at home against Philadelphia
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Toronto's last 5 games when playing at home against Philadelphia

Portland Trail Blazers
Portland is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Portland is 17-5 SU in its last 22 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Portland's last 5 games
Portland is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Portland is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Denver
Portland is 3-8 SU in its last 11 games when playing Denver
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Portland's last 8 games when playing Denver
Portland is 2-4-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Denver
Portland is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Denver
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Portland's last 10 games when playing on the road against Denver
Denver Nuggets
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Denver's last 10 games
Denver is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 14 of Denver's last 18 games at home
Denver is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Portland
Denver is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games when playing Portland
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Denver's last 8 games when playing Portland
Denver is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Portland
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Denver's last 10 games when playing at home against Portland


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NBA
Dunkel

Tuesday, May 7


Philadelphia @ Toronto

Game 505-506
May 7, 2019 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Philadelphia
126.887
Toronto
126.861
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Philadelphia
Even
217
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Toronto
by 6 1/2
211 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Philadelphia
(+6 1/2); Over

Portland @ Denver

Game 507-508
May 7, 2019 @ 10:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Portland
122.840
Denver
121.961
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Portland
by 1
207
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Denver
by 4 1/2
213 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Portland
(+4 1/2); Under

 

[Cnotes53]

TUESDAY, MAY 7
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

PHI at TOR 08:00 PM
PHI +6.5
U 211.5

POR at DEN 10:30 PM
POR +4.5
O 213.0

 

[Cnotes53]

Raptors rout 76ers 125-89 to win Game 5
May 7, 2019
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TORONTO (AP) The Toronto Raptors came up with a new load management plan for Kawhi Leonard. It was to make sure their star forward didn't have to shoulder the entire offensive burden.

Leonard had 21 points and 13 rebounds, Pascal Siakam scored 25 points and the Raptors used a balanced attack and a huge second quarter to rout the Philadelphia 76ers 125-89 Tuesday night and take a 3-2 lead in their Eastern Conference semifinal series.

Toronto can advance to the Eastern Conference finals for the second time in four seasons with a victory in Game 6 at Philadelphia on Thursday night. The Raptors lost in six games to Cleveland in the East finals in 2016.

If the 76ers can extend the series to a seventh game, it would be played in Toronto on Sunday night.

Leonard, who had scored 33 or more points in each of the first four games of the series, shot 7 for 16 from the field and 7 for 8 at the line before checking out with 7:22 to play and Toronto up 103-73. He had four assists and two steals.

''Tonight was one of those games where we let him rest a little bit, which is important,'' Raptors guard Kyle Lowry said. ''He had a big double-double, but he didn't have to do everything offensively.''

Leonard scored 39 points in Toronto's Game 4 win on Sunday.

Lowry scored 19 points, while Danny Green shot 5 for 7 from 3-point range and finished with 17 points. Marc Gasol scored 11 points and Serge Ibaka had 10. All five Toronto starters scored in double digits.

''Kawhi still had a great game and the surrounding cast contributed,'' 76ers coach Brett Brown said.

The 36-point margin was the largest in Toronto's postseason history, and marked Philadelphia's worst playoff defeat since a 40-point loss to Boston in Game 1 of the 1982 Eastern Conference finals.

''The spirit, I thought, went away a little bit quicker than I'd wished,'' Brown said.

Up by one after the first, the Raptors outscored the 76ers 37-17 in the second to take a 21-point lead, 64-43, at halftime.

''The second period is where it got away from us,'' Brown said. ''I give Toronto credit, we didn't have the answers for a few of their players and it snowballed.''

Ahead 92-70 at the start of the fourth, Toronto extended its lead to a game-high 40 points on a dunk by Normal Powell with 2:24 remaining.

The Raptors shot 16 for 40 from 3-point range, setting a franchise record for 3-pointers in a postseason game. They hadn't made more than 10 in the four previous games this series.

''The 3-point shot was punishing tonight,'' Brown said.

Jimmy Butler scored 22 points and Tobias Harris had 15 for the 76ers, who have lost two straight after winning the previous two.

Joel Embiid scored 13 points and had eight turnovers. Embiid started despite missing the morning shoot-around because of flu-like symptoms.

''Offensively there was a rhythm to his game that was clearly out of synch,'' Brown said. ''He's been in bed for two days.''

Embiid also battled illness in Games 2 and 4.

''I know I've got to do a better job for us to win,'' Embiid said.

Sixers guard Ben Simmons shot 3 for 5 and finished with seven points, seven rebounds, and five turnovers.

Siakam scored nine points in the first and Lowry had eight as Toronto led 27-26 after one. Leonard had seven rebounds and five points in the first.

Ibaka needed three stitches to close a cut on his forehead after he was inadvertently elbowed by Leonard in the opening quarter. Ibaka returned to start the second and, despite a visible bump on his head, soon scored his first points by blowing past Embiid for a dunk.

Green scored nine points in the second, making three of Toronto's four 3-pointers. Toronto shot 12 for 21 in the second while Philadelphia shot 6 for 20.

Leonard, who missed six of his first eight shots, punctuated Toronto's decisive second quarter with a powerful one-handed slam, driving into the paint from near center court and splitting a pair of defenders to throw it down with 2.6 seconds left.

''That was pretty impressive,'' Siakam said. ''Plays like that always give us energy.''

TIP-INS

76ers: Simmons turned the ball over on each of Philadelphia's first two possessions. ... Embiid and Simmons had more turnovers (12) than made baskets (eight) through the first three quarters. ... Philadelphia recorded seven assists on eight made baskets in the first. ... The 76ers shot 1 for 10 from 3-point range in the first half. They finished 6 for 24. ... The Sixers had more fouls in the first half (16) than field goals (14).

Raptors: Leonard had 13 points and 10 rebounds at halftime. ... F OG Anunoby (appendectomy) joined his teammates on the bench for the first time since undergoing emergency surgery two days before the start of the playoffs. ... Toronto shot 29 for 33 from the foul line.

TAKE WING

As Embiid headed to the bench in the fourth, fans behind the Raptors' bench mocked the 76ers big man by mimicking the airplane celebration he showed off after a big dunk in Game 3.

''I didn't notice, I just saw them shake their bodies,'' Embiid said. ''But good for them.''

SEE YOU SUNDAY?

While walking off the court after the game, Embiid paused to tell rapper Drake, Toronto's Global Ambassador, that the 76ers would be back for Game 7.

THE HAUNTING

The 76ers had 19 turnovers, leading to 31 points for Toronto.

''That is haunting,'' Brown said. ''You cannot win with those types of numbers.''

UP NEXT

Game 6 in the series in Philadelphia, on Thursday.

 

[Cnotes53]

Nuggets rout Portland 124-98, a win away from West final
May 8, 2019
By The Associated Press

DENVER (AP) Nikola Jokic scored 25 points and tied a team playoff high with 19 rebounds, and Paul Millsap injected some experience into a series dominated by youth, sparking the Nuggets' 124-98 blowout of the Portland Trail Blazers on Tuesday night that gave Denver a 3-2 lead in the best-of-seven series.

The Nuggets can secure their first trip to the Western Conference Finals in a decade with a win in Game 6 on Thursday night in Portland.

Millsap scored 19 of his 24 points in the first half of the first lopsided game in a series that was so evenly matched coming in that Denver held a cumulative scoring advantage of 464-462.

The Nuggets never trailed and stretched a six-point lead after one quarter to 18 at the half and 28 heading into the fourth quarter. They led by as many as 31 before a parade of backups gave the starters some much-needed breathers.

Damian Lillard led Portland with 22 points but again struggled from the arc, going 2 of 9 on 3-pointers.

RAPTORS 125, 76ERS 89

TORONTO (AP) - Kawhi Leonard had 21 points and 13 rebounds, Pascal Siakam scored 25 points and the Toronto Raptors used a huge second quarter to rout the Philadelphia 76ers 125-89 Tuesday night and take a 3-2 lead in their Eastern Conference semifinal series.

Toronto can advance to the Eastern Conference finals for the second time in four seasons with a victory in Game 6 at Philadelphia on Thursday night. The Raptors lost in six games to Cleveland in the East finals in 2016.

Leonard, who had scored 33 or more points in each of the first four games of the series, shot 7 for 16 from the field and 7 for 8 at the line before checking out with 7:22 to play and Toronto up 103-73.

Kyle Lowry scored 19 points, while Danny Green shot 5 for 7 from 3-point range and finished with 17 points. Marc Gasol scored 11 points and Serge Ibaka had 10.

Up by one after the first, the Raptors outscored the 76ers 37-17 in the second quarter to take a 21-point lead, 64-43,at halftime.

Jimmy Butler scored 22 points and Tobias Harris had 15 for the 76ers, who have lost two straight after winning the previous two. Joel Embiid scored 13 points and had eight turnovers.

 

[Cnotes53]

SCHEDULE FOR WEDNESDAY MAY 8, 2019
Time (ET) Away Home Site
8:05 PM Boston Celtics Milwaukee Bucks Fiserv Forum
10:35 PM Houston Rockets Golden State Warriors ORACLE Arena


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NBA PLAYOFF RECORD OPINIONS AND BEST BETS !

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD


05/07/2019 1-3-0 25.00% -11.50
05/06/2019 1-2-1 33.33% -6.00
05/05/2019 2-2-0 50.00% -1.00
05/04/2019 2-0-0 100.00% +10.00
05/03/2019 1-3-0 25.00% -11.00
05/02/2019 2-0-0 100.00% +10.00
05/01/2019 1-1-0 50.00% -0.50

Totals..............10-11-1 47.61% -11.00


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BEST BETS:

DATE........................ATS................... ..UNITS..................O/U..................UNITS.............TOTALS


05/07/2019.............0 - 2....................-11.00...................1 - 1...................-0.50.............-11.50
05/06/2019.............0 - 2....................-11.00...................1 - 0..................+5.00.............-6.00
05/05/2019.............1 - 1....................-0.50.....................1 - 1..................-0.50..............-1.00
05/04/2019.............1 - 0....................+5.00....................1 - 0.................+5.00.............+10.00
05/03/2019.............0 - 2....................-11.00...................1 - 1..................-0.50..............-11.50
05/02/2019.............1 - 0....................+5.00....................1 - 0.................+5.00.............+10.00
05/01/2019.............0 - 1.....................-5.50....................1 - 0.................+5.00..............-0.50


Totals.....................3 - 8.....................-29.00...................7 - 3.................+18.50.............-10.50


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APRILS NBA BEST BETS


Totals....................23 - 21..................-0.50.................25 - 27................-19.50..............-20.00