Cnotes 2022-2023 nhl trends, news, best bets and opinions thru the playoffs !

[Cnotes53]

Completed Picks

Past Completed Picks

02/27/2023	3-6-1	35.00%	-2525	Detail
02/26/2023	5-9-0	35.71%	-2450	Detail
02/25/2023	12-10-0	54.55%	+1640	Detail
02/24/2023	4-8-0	33.33%	-2700	Detail
02/23/2023	10-9-1	52.50%	+125	Detail
02/22/2023	3-3-0	50.00%	+1025	Detail
02/21/2023	7-11-0	38.89%	-2775	Detail
02/20/2023	1-2-1	37.50%	-1125	Detail
02/19/2023	9-2-1	79.17%	+2725	Detail
02/18/2023	11-15-0	42.31%	-3350	Detail
02/17/2023	7-3-0	70.00%	+1025	Detail
02/16/2023	9-7-0	56.25%	+750	Detail
02/15/2023	6-6-0	50.00%	-525	Detail
02/14/2023	7-11-0	38.89%	-2925	Detail
02/13/2023	6-3-1	65.00%	+2100	Detail
02/12/2023	3-5-0	37.50%	-1825	Detail
02/11/2023	15-13-0	53.57%	-160	Detail
02/10/2023	2-6-0	25.00%	-2150	Detail
02/09/2023	7-6-1	53.57%	-400	Detail
02/08/2023	1-3-0	25.00%	-1100	Detail
02/07/2023	6-5-1	54.17%	+650	Detail
02/06/2023	6-5-0	54.55%	+800	Detail
02/01/2023	3-1-0	75.00%	+1000	Detail

 

[Udog]

Armadillo Sports

Tuesday’s 6-pack
College hoop teams turning the ball over the least, and their records:
13.1%— Penn State (17-12, 8-10)
13.3%— Oral Roberts (27-4, 18-0)
13.4%— Wisconsin (16-12, 8-10)
13.5%— Notre Dame (10-19, 2-16)
13.5%— NC State (22-8, 12-7)
13.8%— Virginia (21-6, 13-5)

Quote of the Day
“It’s easier to fool someone than to convince them that they’ve been fooled.”
Mark Twain

Tuesday’s quiz
Where did Trailblazers’ star Damian Lillard play his college basketball?

Monday’s quiz
Stan Kroenke owns the Los Angeles Rams; he also owns Colorado Avalanche in the NHL and Denver Nuggets in the NBA.

Sunday’s quiz
Baltimore Colts drafted John Elway, then traded him to the Broncos, then moved the franchise to Indianapolis the next year.

*********************************

Tuesday’s Den: Random stuff on a snowy day……..

Atlantic Sun tournament
— Bellarmine 76, North Florida 74— Knights lost by 12 at North Florida three days ago, but won this game on a neutral court, scoring a hoop with 0:00.4 left. Bellarmine now plays at Liberty on Tuesday night, quick turnaround for the lower seed.

— Queens 61, Florida Gulf Coast 55— This is first season in Division I for the Queens Royals; they had lost five of last six games before this win. Queens plays at Kennesaw State Tuesday in the next round of the A-Sun Tournament.

This was the first conference tournament to start; a few more start tonight.

— ACC is having a down basketball season; going into Monday night’s games, Duke (#34), Miami (#37) were the two highest-ranked teams on KenPom.com.

Every year since at least 2002, ACC has had 2+ teams finish in KenPom’s top 20, so they’ve got some work to do for that to happen this year.

— Patriot League tournament is played on higher-seeded teams home courts, but home teams are 47-43 SU in Patriot League games this season, worst home court record for any league in the country.

— Mountain West tournament is in Las Vegas; funny that even though they’re the host school, UNLV hasn’t won the Mountain West tournament since 2008.

— Atlanta Hawks signed Quin Snyder to a 5-year deal to be their new coach; the Duke alum replaces another ACC alum, NC State’s Nate McMillan. Hawks are 31-30, the #8-seed in the East as I type this. McMillan was 110-92 in three years coaching Atlanta.

This is my annual reminder to you that the Hawks’ owner is Tony Ressler, a hedge fund guy and obviously a billionaire. Ressler has been married to actress Jami Gertz for 34 years; she was in Less Than Zero, a terrific movie with Andrew McCarthy/Robert Downey Jr. Funny how a really rich guy has a beautiful wife. Go figure.

Couple years when the Hawks missed the playoffs, Jami Gertz represented them at the NBA’s Draft Lottery. Atlanta is trying for its third straight winning season; we’ll see if the coaching change makes any difference. Snyder was 393-294 coaching the Jazz, only 21-30 in playoff games.

— Milwaukee Bucks got sold this week, to the Haslam family that also owns the Cleveland Browns. Haslam’s paid $3.5B for the Bucks, that’s billion, with a B.

— I watch a ton of college basketball on TV; to me, the TV analyst I learn the most from is Dalen Cuff on ESPN. He isn’t a shill for anyone; he’ll speak the truth and not everyone does that.

— Super Bowl champion Chiefs did the expected, promoted Matt Nagy to offensive coordinator, replacing the departed Eric Bieniemy, who left to be OC at Washington.

— Charger-Bronco games should be interesting next year; Denver hired Joe Lombardi as their new offensive coordinator, six weeks after the Chargers fired him from the same job. Chargers quickly hired former Dallas OC Kellen Moore to replace Lombardi.

— Washington Commanders cut QB Carson Wentz, who went 2-5 as Washington’s starter this past season. Wentz will be on his 4th different team in four years next season; could a reunion with former Colts’ coach Frank Reich happen in Carolina?

— There was a story in The Athletic last week saying at this time last year, Russell Wilson was trying get Pete Carroll fired as coach of the Seahawks; the whole thing ended with Seahawks trading Wilson to Denver, where the Broncos floundered, but now they have Sean Payton as coach, so 2023 should be better for them.

Carroll has coached Seattle for 13 years; he is 138-90-1 there, with a Super Bowl title in 2013.

— Week 2 XFL:
Battlehawks 20, Seattle 18
St Louis won its first two games by a combined 5 points.
Seattle lost its first two games by a combined 6 points.
St Louis kicked a 44-yard FG as time expired for the win.

Defenders 18, Vipers 6
Las Vegas led 6-0 at half, didn’t score in 2nd half on a rainy night in desert.
Vipers completed only 11-23 passes, for 93 yards.
Defenders outgained Las Vegas, 319-177

Brahmas 30, Guardians 12
Total yardage was only 210-175, but San Antonio won going away.
Former Wisconsin QB Coen was 16-24/165 passing, with TD throws to 3 different guys.
Orlando is hurting at QB; Paxton Lynch got benched again. Backup Francois was 6-13 passing for 8 yards.

Roughnecks 23, Renegades 14
Wade Phillips’ team won first two games, by 21-9 points.
Total yardage was 242-125, Houston.
Thru two weeks, favorites are 4-4 ATS, over is 5-3.

— You realize you watch too much TV when you’re sitting there are 5am watching re-runs of The Jetsons on HBO Max; loved that show when I was a kid, but that was also 50 years ago.

— After three days of spring training games, baseball is winning the public relations war with the new pitch clock rules; games have been 20-25 minutes shorter this spring, and announcers on broadcasts are selling the rule changes pretty well

 

[Udog]

OTTAWA is 7-0 ATS (7 Units) in home games vs. division opponents in the current season.

FLORIDA is 22-30 ATS (-20.2 Units) against excellent power play teams- scoring on >17.5% of their chances in the current season.

COLUMBUS are 11-39 ATS (-31.9 Units) in road games after playing a road game in the last 3 seasons.

PITTSBURGH is 10-21 ATS (-13.1 Units) in road games after playing a game where 8 or more total goals were scored in the last 3 sea...

ST LOUIS are 1-10 ATS (-9.1 Units) in home games vs. winning teams in the current season.

WINNIPEG is 9-0 ATS (9 Units) in home games after playing 2 consecutive home games in the current season.

MINNESOTA is 11-2 Over (8.8 Units) at home when the total is 5.5 over the last 2 seasons.

ARIZONA is 6-2 ATS (3.8 Units) in home games after failing to cover 3 of their last 4 against the spread in the current season.

CALGARY is 8-2 Over (5.8 Units) in home games after failing to cover 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread in the current seas...

MONTREAL is 8-3 ATS (4.7 Units) revenging a home blowout loss vs opponent of 4 goals or more in the last 3 seasons.

 

[Udog]

NHL
Dunkel

Tuesday, February 28

 

[Udog]

NHL

Tuesday, February 28

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Detroit @ Ottawa
Detroit
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Detroit's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Detroit's last 5 games when playing on the road against Ottawa
Ottawa
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Ottawa's last 5 games at home
Ottawa is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Detroit

Florida @ Tampa Bay
Florida
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Florida's last 5 games when playing on the road against Tampa Bay
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Florida's last 8 games on the road
Tampa Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games when playing at home against Florida
Tampa Bay is 14-2 SU in its last 16 games at home

Columbus @ Buffalo
Columbus
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Columbus's last 5 games when playing Buffalo
Columbus is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games
Buffalo
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Buffalo's last 5 games when playing Columbus
Buffalo is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games

NY Islanders @ Minnesota
NY Islanders
NY Islanders is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of NY Islanders's last 6 games when playing Minnesota
Minnesota
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Minnesota's last 9 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Minnesota's last 7 games at home

Pittsburgh @ Nashville
Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Nashville
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Pittsburgh's last 7 games on the road
Nashville
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Nashville's last 5 games
Nashville is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games

Seattle @ St. Louis
Seattle
Seattle is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Seattle's last 6 games
St. Louis
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of St. Louis's last 6 games
St. Louis is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Seattle

Los Angeles @ Winnipeg
Los Angeles
Los Angeles is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Winnipeg
Los Angeles is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Winnipeg
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Winnipeg's last 6 games when playing at home against Los Angeles
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Winnipeg's last 11 games when playing Los Angeles

Chicago @ Arizona
Chicago
Chicago is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Chicago is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
Arizona
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Arizona's last 10 games when playing at home against Chicago
Arizona is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Chicago

Boston @ Calgary
Boston
Boston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Boston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Calgary
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Calgary's last 7 games when playing at home against Boston
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Calgary's last 8 games

Montreal @ San Jose
Montreal
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Montreal's last 7 games when playing San Jose
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Montreal's last 5 games
San Jose
San Jose is 12-1 SU in its last 13 games when playing at home against Montreal
San Jose is 11-1 SU in its last 12 games when playing Montreal


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

[Cnotes53]

TUESDAY, FEBRUARY 28

DET at OTT	07:00 PM	OTT -130 U 6.5	+500 +500
FLA at TB	07:00 PM	TB -160 O 7.0	+500 +500
CLB at BUF	07:30 PM	CLB +170 O 7.0	+500 +500
PIT at NAS	08:00 PM	NAS +115 O 6.5	+500 +500
LA at WIN	08:00 PM	WIN -140 O 6.0	+500 +500
NYI at MIN	08:00 PM	MIN -140 O 5.5	+500 +500
SEA at STL	08:00 PM	SEA -150 O 6.0	+500 +500
BOS at CAL	09:00 PM	BOS -135 O 6.0	+500 +500
CHI at ARI	09:00 PM	ARI -180 O 6.0	+500 +500
MON at SJ	10:30 PM	SJ -155 U 6.5	+500 +500

 

[Cnotes53]

Completed Picks


Past Completed Picks

02/28/2023	11-9-0	55.00%	+325	Detail
02/27/2023	3-6-1	35.00%	-2525	Detail
02/26/2023	5-9-0	35.71%	-2450	Detail
02/25/2023	12-10-0	54.55%	+1640	Detail
02/24/2023	4-8-0	33.33%	-2700	Detail
02/23/2023	10-9-1	52.50%	+125	Detail
02/22/2023	3-3-0	50.00%	+1025	Detail
02/21/2023	7-11-0	38.89%	-2775	Detail
02/20/2023	1-2-1	37.50%	-1125	Detail
02/19/2023	9-2-1	79.17%	+2725	Detail
02/18/2023	11-15-0	42.31%	-3350	Detail
02/17/2023	7-3-0	70.00%	+1025	Detail
02/16/2023	9-7-0	56.25%	+750	Detail
02/15/2023	6-6-0	50.00%	-525	Detail
02/14/2023	7-11-0	38.89%	-2925	Detail
02/13/2023	6-3-1	65.00%	+2100	Detail
02/12/2023	3-5-0	37.50%	-1825	Detail
02/11/2023	15-13-0	53.57%	-160	Detail
02/10/2023	2-6-0	25.00%	-2150	Detail
02/09/2023	7-6-1	53.57%	-400	Detail
02/08/2023	1-3-0	25.00%	-1100	Detail
02/07/2023	6-5-1	54.17%	+650	Detail
02/06/2023	6-5-0	54.55%	+800	Detail
02/01/2023	3-1-0	75.00%	+1000	Detail

 

[Udog]

Armadillo Sports

Wednesday’s 6-pack
Conferences whose games are played at the fastest tempo:
1) MEAC
2) Ohio Valley Conference
3) West Coast Conference
4) Ivy League
5) AAC
6) Western Athletic Conference

Quote of the Day
“You’ve got to learn to love the boredom of practicing free throws.”
Steve Kerr

Wednesday’s quiz
In the movie A Star is Born, what well-known actor played Bradley Cooper’s brother?

Tuesday’s quiz
Trailblazers’ star Damian Lillard played his college basketball at Weber State.

Monday’s quiz
Stan Kroenke owns the Los Angeles Rams; he also owns Colorado Avalanche in the NHL and Denver Nuggets in the NBA.

*********************************

Wednesday’s Den: Mid-week musings…….

— Boise State 66, San Diego State 60— Broncos outscored San Diego State 14-0 over final 4:48; huge win for Boise’s at-large hopes- they’re 13-3 in their last 16 games. Max Rice, the coach’s son, scored 26 points to lead the Broncos.

— Iowa 90, Indiana 68— Hawkeyes made 13-23 on arc, following up on their comeback win vs Michigan State over the weekend, when they scored 23 points in last 1:34 of regulation to force overtime.

— San Jose State 63, Colorado State 46— Spartans are 18-12; this is their best season since 1981. If they win at Air Force Saturday, San Jose gets its first-ever bye in Mountain West tourney.

— Boston College 71, Wake Forest 69— Bad loss for the Deacons; they’re 4-7 in their last 11 games, after a 14-5 start. BC has won three in row; they evened their record at 15-15.

Sun Belt tournament
— Arkansas State 86, Coastal Carolina 69— Red Wolves made 14-25 on the arc; they scored 52 points in second half. ASU won three of last four games, after a 1-13 skid; they play Troy State in the next round.

Horizon tournament
— Detroit 81, Fort Wayne 68— Antoine Davis scored 38 points, needs 26 more to become the all-time scoring leader in D-I history.

Pete Maravich- 3,667 points in 83 games
Antoine Davis- 3,642 points in 143 games, and still going.

Both players played for their dad in college.

— Charleston basketball coach Pat Kelsey signed a 5-year contract extension that will pay him $1.1M a year. Cougars are 28-3 this season, 45-17 in two years under Kelsey.

— I’m a big list maker; one thing on my list for next season in college basketball is adding the Atlantic Sun to the leagues we follow religiously. There are 32 D-I conferences; right now there are eight I mostly ignore; have to decide whether to keep following the OVC or just exchange the ASUN with them.

OVC has gone way downhill, with so many teams defecting; should consider adding the Big South, another conference that has surpassed the OVC.

Elsewhere……..
— If you’re a fan of the Showtime series Billions, there is very good news to report; Damian Lewis is returning to the show to play Bobby Axelrod this coming season.

Lewis left Billions after his wife in real life passed away two years ago; he is scheduled to return midway thru Season 7. The show was still good without him, but it was different, the conflicts a little forced. Axelrod is the main character of the show, so Damian Lewis’ return will invigorate the series, for sure.

— NFL announced that the Hall of Fame Game in Canton this summer is Jets-Browns; once you heard that Joe Klecko/Darrelle Revis were getting inducted, it made sense that the Jets would be in Canton that weekend.

— Half the NFL teams will have new offensive coordinators next year; 16 of 32 teams, which is the highest OC turnover since 2019.

— Atlanta Falcons saved $2M in salary cap space by cutting QB Marcus Mariota, who went 5-8 as a starter for Atlanta last year. His career NFL record is 35-41, 1-1 in playoff games.

— Buffalo Bills defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier is stepping away from football this coming season, expects to return in 2024. Whether that will be with Buffalo is still unclear.

— Over the last 10 years, amount of cornerbacks drafted in Rounds 1-3 from Power 5 conferences:
SEC— 36
Big 14— 20
ACC— 19
Pac-12— 19
Big X— 6

— This from NFL expert Warren Sharp:
WR Terry McLaurin has played four seasons with Washington; here are the QB’s he has played with, not exactly a Who’s Who of the position:

201 passes from Taylor Heinicke
98 from Dwayne Haskins
52 from Alex Smith
43 from Carson Wentz
41 from Case Keenum
31 from Kyle Allen
7 from Colt McCoy
6 from Sam Howell
4 from Garrett Gilbert

— Baseball injuries:
Dodgers’ IF Gavin Lux tore his ACL, is out for the year.
Rays’P Tyler Glasnow has an oblique injury, is out 6-8 weeks.
Padres’ P Joe Musgrove broke a toe in a weight-lifting accident.

— NBA injuries
Lakers’ Lebron James (foot) is out at least two weeks; he’ll be re-evaluated then.
Hornets’ LaMelo Ball broke his ankle in a non-contact injury.

— Welcome to March, one of the best months of the year.

 

[Udog]

PHILADELPHIA is 9-2 ATS (6.8 Units) revenging a home loss versus opponent of 2 goals or more in the current season.

TORONTO is 12-18 ATS (-7.8 Units) in road games when playing only their 2nd game in 5 days in the last 3 seasons.

ARIZONA is 6-2 ATS (3.8 Units) after playing 4 consecutive home games over the last 2 seasons.

NEW JERSEY is 7-0 ATS (7 Units) in road games after scoring 4 goals or more in 2 straight games in the current season.
NHL

ANAHEIM is 14-42 ATS (-32.2 Units) in home games after playing a home game in the last 3 seasons.

CAROLINA is 9-2 Over (6.8 Units) in road games after playing 3 consecutive home games over the last 2 seasons.




NHL
Dunkel

Wednesday, March 1

NHL

Wednesday, March 1

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NY Rangers @ Philadelphia
NY Rangers
NY Rangers is 13-2 ATS in its last 15 games on the road
NY Rangers is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Philadelphia
Philadelphia
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Philadelphia's last 7 games
Philadelphia is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home

Toronto @ Edmonton
Toronto
Toronto is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games when playing on the road against Edmonton
Toronto is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Edmonton
Edmonton
Edmonton is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Edmonton's last 9 games

Arizona @ Dallas
Arizona
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Arizona's last 6 games when playing Dallas
Arizona is 8-17 SU in its last 25 games
Dallas
Dallas is 15-1 SU in its last 16 games when playing at home against Arizona
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Dallas's last 14 games

New Jersey @ Colorado
New Jersey
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of New Jersey's last 8 games when playing on the road against Colorado
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New Jersey's last 5 games on the road
Colorado
Colorado is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Colorado is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games when playing at home against New Jersey

Washington @ Anaheim
Washington
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington's last 6 games when playing on the road against Anaheim
Washington is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games on the road
Anaheim
Anaheim is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Washington
Anaheim is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games when playing Washington

Carolina @ Vegas
Carolina
Carolina is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Carolina is 12-2 SU in its last 14 games
Vegas
Vegas is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Vegas's last 5 games when playing Carolina


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

[Udog]

NHL Against the Spread Rankings

 

[Cnotes53]

WEDNESDAY, MARCH 1

NYR at PHI	07:30 PM	NYR -225 U 6.0	+500 +500
TOR at EDM	08:00 PM	EDM +100 O 7.0	+500 +500
ARI at DAL	08:30 PM	ARI +325 O 6.0	+500 +500
NJ at COL	09:00 PM	NJ -105 U 6.0	+500 +500
WAS at ANA	10:00 PM	ANA +170 U 6.5	+500 +500
CAR at VEG	10:00 PM	VEG +125 O 5.5	+500 +500

 

[Cnotes53]

Completed Picks

Past Completed Picks

03/01/2023	6-4-2	58.33%	+1025	Detail

 

[Udog]

Armadillo Sports

Thursday’s 6-pack
Conferences whose games are played at the slowest tempo:
32) Metro Atlantic
31) Big 14
30) Mountain West
29) Patriot League
28) Big South
27) Big Sky

Quote of the Day
“We don’t feel like we’re pressed, but that doesn’t mean our eyes aren’t on a quarterback.”
Detroit Lions’ coach Dan Campbell

Thursday’s quiz
In the old TV show Gilligan’s Island, what was the rich guy’s name?

Wednesday’s quiz
In the movie A Star is Born, Sam Elliott played Bradley Cooper’s brother.

Tuesday’s quiz
Trailblazers’ star Damian Lillard played his college basketball at Weber State.

********************************

Thursday’s Den: Doing some thinking out loud……..

— Alabama 90, Auburn 85 OT— This was as fiercely played a regular season game as I can remember seeing; Auburn led by 17 at one point, but in a game that didn’t end until 9:50 pm (started at 7:00), the host Crimson Tide won and with it, the regular season title in the SEC is also theirs.

Auburn has lost eight of its last eleven games, is now a bubble team that is trending in the wrong direction.

— Tennessee point guard Zakai Zeigler tore his ACL Tuesday night, is out for the year; Zeigler was averaging 10.7 ppg, 5.4 assists/game for the 22-8 Vols.

— Iowa State tossed senior guard Caleb Grill off the team Wednesday, a week before the Big X tournament, a huge red flag for the team. On January 10, the Cyclones were 13-2, but since then they’ve lost nine of 13 games, losing last four in a row, scoring only 57 ppg.

Grill said “I said something that I regret which has cost me the opportunity to finish out my dream at Iowa State.”

Losing can be stressful for a team; sounds like the pot boiled over for Iowa State, and now a team that is #203 in bench minutes is without one of its better guards.

— TCU 75, Texas 73— Horned Frogs even though their star Mike Miles scored only one point in 36:00. Texas has lost four in a row on road, by 8-7-9-2 points.

— Missouri 81, LSU 76— Mizzou was down 43-24 late in first half; they win even though LSU made 14-28 on the arc. This is Missouri’s best season since 2014.

— Vanderbilt 68, Kentucky 66— Wildcats outscored Vandy 25-10 on foul line, but were just 25-35 on the charity stripe; 10 missed free throws in a 2-point loss is no bueno. Vandy has won seven of its last eight games; they’re 36-30 the last two seasons.

— Survive and advance; Jim Valvano used to talk about that, how in the NCAA Tournament, you give your all to win your next game, then you move on to the next line in the bracket, and do the same thing all over again. Play one game at a time.

This season, with no dominant team, no obvious favorite to win the title, survive/advance will become a mantra once again. Picking our brackets ain’t going to be easy.

— Going thru some NCAA Tournament trends, found a weird one on the play-in games that get the field down from 68 to 64 teams.

There are two levels of play-in games, the two #16-seed games, with the worst of the league champs facing off, then the worst four at-large teams also have two play-in games. It almost seems like JV and Varsity play-in games.

How do the four teams that win the play-in games do in the Round of 64?

Over the last ten years, the two teams who won the 16-seed play-in games went 1-1 against the spread in the next round all 10 years. None of them won SU; we know that UMBC is the only #16-seed to ever beat a #1-seed, and they weren’t a play-in team.

So none of the #16-seeds won, but they’ve gone 10-10 ATS, 1-1 every year.

As for the “varsity” play-in games, the bigger schools involved, over the last seven years, they also went 1-1 ATS in the next round, but six of the seven teams who covered also won SU.

So, of the last 14 teams to be an at-large team that played an extra game in Dayton, six of those 14 teams won the 2nd game too, and got to the Round of 32.

— A study showed over the last three years, NFL games had an average of 154 plays/game, while college games had an average of 180 plays. Is there any other sport where the college version is longer than the pro version?

College football leaders are looking at ways to shorten their game; not stopping the clock after first downs seems to be the easiest one.

— Philadelphia Eagles hired a new offensive coordinator, Sean Desai, who spent last year with the Seahawks after working with Chicago before that. Desai’s mentor is Vic Fangio; don’t expect the Eagles to blitz a lot.

Eagles promoted Brian Johnson to offensive coordinator, replacing the departed Shane Steichen after he became the Colts’ new coach.

Johnson played QB at Utah, was Dak Prescott’s QB coach at Mississippi State.

— If I ran MLB Network, there would be a fantasy league where the team managers would be
a) former players
b) MLB Network personalities
c) non-baseball celebrities
d) two fans picked via some kind of contest

The draft itself would be great TV, then a weekly zoom call with league members with trades and players getting cut. I’m telling you, this is a good idea. People would follow it. You could even bet on which teams would win.

— Padres’ P Joe Musgrove broke his toe when he dropped a barbell on his foot while working out. He isn’t going to throw for a few weeks while his foot heals.

— The great TV show M*A*S*H went off the air 40 years ago this week; it has lived on in re-runs since then, I still watch them sometimes on Hulu. Very funny show, great writing/acting.

Always try to laugh a little before bed every night; M*A*S*H and Odd Couple are a great help.

 

[Udog]

TAMPA BAY is 8-1 Over (6.9 Units) in home games after 1 or more consecutive unders in the current season.

OTTAWA is 7-0 Under (7 Units) after 3 or more consecutive overs over the last 2 seasons.

FLORIDA is 9-0 Over (9 Units) in home games after 2 or more consecutive unders over the last 2 seasons.

DETROIT is 8-2 ATS (5.8 Units) in home games off a blowout loss by 3 goals or more to a division rival over the last 2 seasons.

BUFFALO is 8-2 ATS (5.8 Units) in road games after covering 2 of their last 3 against the spread in the current season.

DALLAS are 8-0 Under (8 Units) when playing their 3rd game in 4 days in the current season.

CALGARY is 7-0 Over (7 Units) in home games after losing their previous game in overtime over the last 2 seasons.

MINNESOTA is 21-4 ATS (16.6 Units) off a close home win by 1 goal over the last 2 seasons.

LOS ANGELES are 8-1 ATS (6.9 Units) after allowing 4 goals or more 2 straight games in the current season.

ST LOUIS are 10-18 ATS (-9.8 Units) in March games in the last 3 seasons.

 

[Udog]

NHL

Thursday, March 2

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Buffalo @ Boston
Buffalo
Buffalo is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Buffalo's last 5 games when playing on the road against Boston
Boston
Boston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Boston is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games when playing at home against Buffalo

Nashville @ Florida
Nashville
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Nashville's last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Nashville's last 6 games
Florida
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Florida's last 9 games when playing at home against Nashville
The total has gone OVER in 12 of Florida's last 17 games

Ottawa @ NY Rangers
Ottawa
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Ottawa's last 6 games when playing NY Rangers
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Ottawa's last 11 games
NY Rangers
NY Rangers is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of NY Rangers's last 6 games when playing Ottawa

Pittsburgh @ Tampa Bay
Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Tampa Bay
Pittsburgh is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay is 14-3 SU in its last 17 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games when playing Pittsburgh

Seattle @ Detroit
Seattle
Seattle is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
Seattle is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
Detroit
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Detroit's last 7 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Detroit's last 6 games

Dallas @ Chicago
Dallas
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Dallas's last 12 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Dallas's last 11 games when playing Chicago
Chicago
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Chicago's last 11 games when playing Dallas
Chicago is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home

Toronto @ Calgary
Toronto
Toronto is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Calgary
Toronto is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing Calgary
Calgary
Calgary is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Toronto
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Calgary's last 5 games

Minnesota @ Vancouver
Minnesota
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Minnesota's last 5 games
Minnesota is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Vancouver
Vancouver
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Vancouver's last 11 games
Vancouver is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games

Montreal @ Los Angeles
Montreal
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Montreal's last 7 games when playing Los Angeles
Montreal is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games
Los Angeles
Los Angeles is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Montreal
Los Angeles is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games

St. Louis @ San Jose
St. Louis
St. Louis is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing San Jose
St. Louis is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing San Jose
San Jose
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of San Jose's last 9 games
The total has gone OVER in 17 of San Jose's last 25 games at home


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

[Udog]

NHL
Dunkel

Thursday, March 2

 

[Cnotes53]

Completed Picks

Past Completed Picks

03/02/2023	9-11-0	45.00%	-2350	Detail
03/01/2023	6-4-2	58.33%	+1025	Detail

 

[Udog]

Armadillo Sports

Friday’s 6-pack
Top six teams in country on offensive boards…….
they’re rebounding 39.2% of their misses— UConn (23-7, 12-7)
38.4%— Purdue (25-5, 14-5)
38.3%— Kentucky (20-10, 11-6)
38.0%— Houston (28-2, 16-1)
37.3%— Tennessee (22-8, 11-6)
37.2%— Duke (22-8, 13-6)

Tweet of the Day
“How bout you play to your player’s strength and & stop pointing the finger at us and #8 …blame the one you let do this…. we take heat 24/7 . & keep us healthy … care about US & see what happen..ain’t no promises tho … tired of y’all lyin and capn on players for no reason”
Ravens’ WR Rashod Bateman, responding to criticism of Baltimore’s WR’s

Friday’s quiz
VCU made the national championship game in 2011, as a #11-seed; who was their coach?

Thursday’s quiz
In the old TV show Gilligan’s Island, the rich guy’s name was Thurston Howell.

Wednesday’s quiz
In the movie A Star is Born, Sam Elliott played Bradley Cooper’s brother.

**************************

Friday’s Den: Wrapping up a busy Thursday…….

— Youngstown State 71, Detroit 66— Top-seeded Penguins trailed 33-29 at halftime, but they held Detroit star Antoine Davis to 22 points and advance to play Northern Kentucky in the semi-finals of the Horizon tournament.

Davis is three points short of tying Pete Maravich for the all-time leading scorer in D-I college basketball; he shot 7-26 in this game, 4-16 on the arc. Titans are 14-18; they’re ineligible for the NIT, but could still be invited to the CBI or Basketball Classic.

I’m wondering if LSU will lobby against Detroit being invited to those tournaments.

— It is funny how times change over the years; the gym at LSU is the Maravich Assembly Center; that is where Pistol Pete played for his dad for three seasons, scoring 3,667 points, averaging 44.2 points/game, in an era where there were no 3-point shots.

But when Pete Maravich was in high school, his dad Press Maravich was the head coach at NC State, a way better basketball school than LSU (back then); in the 60’s, the ACC had more stringent academic rules for kids getting admitted into their schools. Pete Maravich couldn’t get accepted into NC State, so Press Maravich quit and took the LSU coaching job.

Could you imagine that happening today?!?!?!? Didn’t think so.

By the way, NC State hired Norm Sloan to replace Press Maravich as coach; he recruited David Thompson a few years later, and the Wolfpack went 57-1 from 1972-74 and won the national title in 1974.

— Atlantic Sun tournament
Liberty 79, Eastern Kentucky 73
Kennesaw State 80, Lipscomb 71

Two two seeds in the league play in the A-Sun finals Sunday afternoon.

— Purdue 63, Wisconsin 61— Boilermakers snap 3-game road losing streak; they’re 3-4 in their last seven games- they need better production from guys other than C Zack Edey. In this game, Edey was 7-9 from floor, rest of the team went 17-49 (43.6%).

— Minnesota 75, Rutgers 74— Horrendous, hideous loss for Rutgers, to a Minnesota team that had lost 12 games in a row. Bracketology had them as a 9-seed Tuesday; we’ll see if this bad loss puts them on the bubble.

— Illinois F Matthew Mayer missed multiple days of practice this week because of “caffeine poisoning” which is what he called it. Mayer said he felt sick after he drank six Monster energy drinks in one day, while playing video games.

Apparently, this was a bad idea. According to registered dietitian Angie Asche:

“Caffeine is one of the only ‘pre-workout’ stimulants I recommend to my athletes, but it requires education on proper dosage and timing. Athletes don’t realize the serious consequences it can have on their performance and recovery.”

Excessive caffeine consumption can cause headaches, nausea, and diarrhea, as well as anxiety and insomnia that can seriously mess up your sleep. It is also dehydrating, and in rare cases caffeine can be dangerous, with massive doses linked to irregular heart beat, low blood pressure, and death.

Apparently Mayer recovered pretty well; Thursday night, he scored 24 points in Illinois’ 91-87 double-overtime win over Michigan.

— As for myself, I’ve never had an energy drink and now, I never will.

— The WAC and Conference USA are talking about forming a basketball scheduling alliance “for the next few years” according to Jeff Goodman of Stadium.

The primary goal of these alliances is to increase quality in the leagues’ non-conference schedules, so they can fare better in NCAA Tournament seeding. It also allows these teams to play quality non-conference games, without having to go on the road all the time, which they would have to do against the Power 5 conference teams.

Sun Belt and Mid-American Conference are also going to be doing this, starting next season.

— Baltimore Ravens seem to have some off-field issues; the players are mad at the GM, who criticized the team’s receivers. QB Lamar Jackson is serving as his own agent, which makes his contract negotiations a lot more dicey.

Team executives can say stuff about a player to his agent during negotiations, but when there is no agent, the executive has to say it directly to the player, and there is a much better chance of feeling being hurt during negotiations when they’re done that way.

— Every day, I scan the boxscores for spring training results and news about the 28 guys on my fantasy baseball team. I hold my breath that no one is hurt; baseball players get hurt a lot.

Juan Yepez fouled a ball off his shin. Dom Smith got hit with a pitch and almost got into a fight. These are things I don’t need to see. This time of year, no news is good news.

— Jonathan Quick was the goalie for the Los Angeles Kings for the last 16 years, helping the Kings win their only two Stanley Cups; Wednesday, the Kings traded him to Columbus, then on Thursday, the Blue Jackets traded him to the Vegas Golden Knights. 16 years as a building block of the franchise, then you get traded twice, on consecutive days. Has to be a little weird.

— Happy 88th birthday to Porky Pig; the animated character made his debut this week in 1935.

As for today’s Den, well……..That’s all folks!!!!

 

[Udog]

COLUMBUS are 20-10 ATS (9 Units) in home games in non-conference games in the last 3 seasons.

EDMONTON is 12-0 Over (12 Units) in home games off a home blowout win by 3 goals or more over the last 2 seasons.

ARIZONA is 7-1 ATS (5.9 Units) in home games off a road loss in the current season.

ANAHEIM is 6-28 ATS (-24.8 Units) on Friday nights in the last 3 seasons.

NEW JERSEY is 8-0 ATS (8 Units) in road games after scoring 4 goals or more in 2 straight games in the current season.




NHL

Friday, March 3

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Seattle @ Columbus
Seattle
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Seattle's last 6 games on the road
Seattle is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games on the road
Columbus
Columbus is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Columbus's last 5 games at home

Winnipeg @ Edmonton
Winnipeg
Winnipeg is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games when playing on the road against Edmonton
Winnipeg is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Edmonton
Edmonton
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Edmonton's last 7 games when playing at home against Winnipeg
Edmonton is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games

Carolina @ Arizona
Carolina
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Carolina's last 5 games
Carolina is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Arizona
Arizona is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Arizona's last 7 games at home

Montreal @ Anaheim
Montreal
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Montreal's last 5 games when playing Anaheim
Montreal is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Anaheim
Anaheim is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Montreal
Anaheim is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games

New Jersey @ Vegas
New Jersey
New Jersey is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New Jersey's last 6 games
Vegas
Vegas is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Vegas's last 5 games


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

[Udog]

NHL
Long Sheet

Friday, March 3

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SEATTLE (34-21-0-6, 74 pts.) at COLUMBUS (19-35-1-6, 45 pts.) - 3/3/2023, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
COLUMBUS is 20-10 ATS (+32.6 Units) in home games in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 34-27 ATS (+5.3 Units) in all games this season.
SEATTLE is 18-10 ATS (+29.1 Units) in a road game where where the total is 6 or more this season.
SEATTLE is 18-12 ATS (+5.7 Units) in non-conference games this season.
SEATTLE is 9-4 ATS (+13.6 Units) in road games after allowing 4 goals or more this season.
SEATTLE is 13-4 ATS (+17.4 Units) in road games after scoring 4 goals or more in their previous game this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
COLUMBUS is 2-1 (+1.3 Units) against the spread versus SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
COLUMBUS is 2-1-0 straight up against SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+0.8 Units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WINNIPEG (35-24-0-2, 72 pts.) at EDMONTON (33-22-0-7, 73 pts.) - 3/3/2023, 9:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WINNIPEG is 19-9 ATS (+28.5 Units) in road games after allowing 4 goals or more over the last 2 seasons.
EDMONTON is 15-17 ATS (-11.6 Units) in a home game where the total is 6 or more this season.
EDMONTON is 105-124 ATS (-60.3 Units) in home games after a non-conference game since 1996.
EDMONTON is 9-14 ATS (-12.9 Units) after a win by 2 goals or more this season.
EDMONTON is 14-19 ATS (-17.9 Units) after scoring 4 goals or more in their previous game this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
WINNIPEG is 8-9 (+0.2 Units) against the spread versus EDMONTON over the last 3 seasons
EDMONTON is 9-8-0 straight up against WINNIPEG over the last 3 seasons
9 of 16 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+1.4 Units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CAROLINA (38-12-3-6, 85 pts.) at ARIZONA (21-31-0-9, 51 pts.) - 3/3/2023, 9:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ARIZONA is 18-23 ATS (+61.6 Units) after a division game over the last 2 seasons.
ARIZONA is 14-16 ATS (+44.4 Units) in non-conference games this season.
ARIZONA is 13-15 ATS (+42.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
ARIZONA is 1-2 (+0.8 Units) against the spread versus CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
CAROLINA is 2-1-0 straight up against ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+1.1 Units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MONTREAL (26-31-0-4, 56 pts.) at ANAHEIM (20-35-0-7, 47 pts.) - 3/3/2023, 10:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MONTREAL is 34-60 ATS (+96.9 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.
MONTREAL is 26-35 ATS (+89.8 Units) in all games this season.
MONTREAL is 141-161 ATS (+356.8 Units) in a road game where where the total is 6 or more since 1996.
ANAHEIM is 16-46 ATS (+76.7 Units) in home games second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
ANAHEIM is 2-13 ATS (+23.3 Units) in March games over the last 2 seasons.
ANAHEIM is 5-19 ATS (+33.1 Units) on Friday nights over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
ANAHEIM is 3-0 (+3.4 Units) against the spread versus MONTREAL over the last 3 seasons
ANAHEIM is 3-0-0 straight up against MONTREAL over the last 3 seasons
3 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+3.0 Units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NEW JERSEY (39-15-2-4, 84 pts.) at VEGAS (36-19-0-6, 78 pts.) - 3/3/2023, 10:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
VEGAS is 13-2 ATS (+9.3 Units) in home games in March games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW JERSEY is 39-19 ATS (+9.2 Units) in all games this season.
NEW JERSEY is 21-7 ATS (+11.7 Units) in a road game where where the total is 6 or more this season.
NEW JERSEY is 9-1 ATS (+7.6 Units) in road games after a win by 2 goals or more this season.
NEW JERSEY is 21-6 ATS (+12.1 Units) after scoring 4 goals or more in their previous game this season.
NEW JERSEY is 19-8 ATS (+9.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
VEGAS is 29-28 ATS (-15.0 Units) in a home game where the total is 6 or more over the last 2 seasons.
VEGAS is 32-38 ATS (-37.1 Units) second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
VEGAS is 3-7 ATS (-12.1 Units) in home games after a non-conference game this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW JERSEY is 2-1 (+2.8 Units) against the spread versus VEGAS over the last 3 seasons
NEW JERSEY is 2-1-0 straight up against VEGAS over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+1.0 Units)

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NHL
Dunkel

Friday, March 3