Cnotes 2023 Major League Baseball Transactions, News, Notes, Picks Etc. !!

[Udog]

MLB
Dunkel

Tuesday, October 3

MLB
Long Sheet

Tuesday, October 3

MLB

Tuesday, October 3

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Trend Report
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[Cnotes53]

Tuesday’s 6-pack:
Highest scoring college basketball teams last year, and their record:
86.1— Gonzaga, 31-6
85.4— Toledo, 27-8
83.3— Oral Roberts, 30-5
82.8— Southern Utah, 24-13
81.9— Youngstown State, 24-10
81.9— Arizona, 28-7

Quote of the Day
“I would tell you that I am a lot more critical of myself than anybody on the outside…….There is no sugarcoating this thing. We have no excuse. We can coach better and we can play better. Hopefully, we will do that.”
Florida Gators’ football coach Billy Napier

Saturday’s quiz
Who was the Jets’ quarterback, last time they played in a playoff game?

Monday’s quiz
Rex Ryan was coach of the New Jersey Jets, last time they made the NFL playoffs, in 2010.

Sunday’s quiz
AJ Hinch was manager of the Astros, before Dusty Baker.

********************************************

Tuesday’s Den: Nobody asked me, but…….​

— Seahawks 24, Giants 3
Seattle sacked Daniel Jones 12 times for 67 yards.
Leading 17-3, Seahawks scored on a 97-yard pick-6.
Seahawks won their last three games, scoring 37-37-24 points.
Seahawks are 18-12-3 ATS in last 33 games with spread of 3 or less points.
NFC West teams are 8-0-1 ATS outside the division.
Giants have been outscored 77-9 in first half of their games.
Big Blue has only one takeaway in four games (minus-6 turnovers)
Daniel Jones is 23-35-1 as an NFL starter.
Giants have been shut out in four of their eight halves this season.
Under is 20-5-1 in their last 26 home games.

— NFL divisional trends, thru four weeks:
NFC East— 5-5-1 ATS outside the division
NFC North— 4-6-2 ATS outside the division
NFC South— 3-5-1 ATS outside the division
NFC West— 8-0-2 ATS outside the division
AFC East— 5-4 ATS outside the division
AFC North— 3-4-1 ATS outside the division
AFC South— 6-4 ATS outside the division
AFC West— 3-9 ATS outside the division

— College football trends, in conference games only:
AAC home favorites 2-5 ATS
ACC home underdogs 6-3 ATS
Big X favorites 9-3 ATS, 7-2 at home
Big 14 home underdogs 2-5 ATS
Conference USA favorites 4-2 ATS
MAC home teams are 1-6 ATS
Mountain West home teams are 4-3 ATS
Pac-12 home teams are 10-2 ATS
SEC favorites are 10-5 ATS
Sun Belt underdogs are 5-3 ATS

— Indiana Hoosiers fired their offensive coordinator Sunday; Hoosiers are 1-3 vs I-A teams, scoring 3-14-17 points in the three losses. Their lone I-A win was 29-27 over Akron.
The new OC is Rod Carey, the former head coach at Northern Illinois and Temple, where he went 64-50 with seven bowl appearances.

— Word of the Day— Bamboozle— to deceive someone by tricking them.

— One of the more unfortunate baseball trends is that the Minnesota Twins have lost their last 18 playoff games; their last playoff win was in Game 1 of the 2004 ALDS, when Johan Santana blanked New York 2-0, throwing seven shutout IP.
Twins are hosting Toronto this week, in the first round of this year’s playoffs, trying to put an end to a very long losing streak.

— Giants, Mets and Angels have already fired their managers; not sure why the front office people who assembled these underachieving teams still have their jobs, but they do.
Angels pay 3B Anthony Rendon more $$$ than Ohtani or Trout; the last three years, he’s played in 148 of a possible 486 games. This is Phil Nevin’s fault?

— Meanwhile, in the Bronx, New York has now spent over $3B in player salary since their last World Series title, yet GM Brian Cashman keeps his job- they’re even bringing manager Aaron Boone back next year. Go figure.

— Mariners’ P George Kirby threw a knuckleball in Seattle’s game vs Texas Sunday, to honor the late knuckleballer Tim Wakefield, who passed away this weekend, at age 57.

— Jacksonville Jaguars beat the Falcons in England Sunday; they’re staying over the pond this week, and play Buffalo this Sunday. Does that give the Jaguars an advantage, staying overseas two weeks in a row?

— NC State is switching QB’s this week; sophomore MJ Morris will replace Brennan Armstrong, who transferred to State after starting for three years at Virginia. Wolfpack lost 13-10 at home to Louisville Friday, which prompted the change.

— Duke QB Riley Leonard has a high ankle sprain, is expected to miss 2-3 weeks.
Texas Tech QB Tyler Shough broke his leg, is out for the year.

— NBA’s Portland Trailblazers traded All-Star G Jrue Holiday to the Celtics, in exchange for C Robert Williams, G Malcolm Brogdon and two 1st-round draft picks, one in 2024, one in 2029.
The 2029 draft pick is likely going to be a kid who is in 7th grade right now.

— If the playoffs started today (wait, they do start today!!!)
Texas @ Tampa Bay
Toronto @ Minnesota
Arizona @ Milwaukee
Miami @ Philadelphia

— Damn, September went by quick; baseball’s regular season is over, training camps for NHL/NBA teams are starting, this is Week 5 in the NFL already. Time flies when you’re having fun.

 

[Udog]

MLB
Weather Report

Tuesday, October 3

MLB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Tuesday, October 3

Tuesday’s games
all Game 1’s

Texas @ Tampa Bay
Montgomery is 2-0, 0.67 in his last four starts.
Rangers are 4-7 in his starts, 1-4 on road.
His last three starts stayed under the total.
He is 0-0, 1.35 in two playoff games (1 start).
He is 4-4, 5.12 in 13 starts vs Tampa Bay.

Rangers lost three of last four games, let AL West title slip away.
Texas lost 8 of its last 10 road games.
Texas is in the playoffs for first time since 2016.
Bochy won three World Series when he managed the Giants.
His postseason record: 44-33

Glasnow was 3-3, 4.86 in six September starts.
Tampa Bay is 12-9 in his starts, 5-5 at home.
Over is 3-1 in his last four starts.
He is 2-5, 5.75 in nine playoff starts.
He is 3-0, 0.46 in three starts vs Texas.

Tampa Bay won four of its last five games.
Rays won six of their last nine home games.
Tampa Bay is in the playoffs for the sixth year in a row.
Cash’s playoff record: 15-17

Toronto @ Minnesota
Gausman is 2-2, 1.75 in his last four starts.
Toronto is 16-15 in his starts, 8-7 on road.
Under is 6-4-1 in his last eleven starts.
He is 0-1, 4.57 in seven playoff games (2 starts)
He is 1-4, 6.35 in 11 starts vs Minnesota.

Toronto lost four of its last six games.
Blue Jays are 7-3 in their last ten road games.
Toronto is in playoffs for third time in four years.
Schneider’s playoff record: 0-2

Lopez is 1-1, 6.46 in his last three starts.
Minnesota is 19-13 in his starts, 10-5 at home.
Over is 4-1 in his last five starts.
He allowed two runs in 5 IP in his one playoff start, in 2020.
He is 1-0, 5.59 in two starts vs Toronto.

Minnesota has lost 18 straight playoff games (last win, 2004)
Twins are in playoffs for first time since 2020.
Minnesota is 8-3 in its last 11 games overall.
Twins are 5-3 in their last eight home games.
Baldelli’s playoff record: 0-5

Arizona @ Milwaukee
Pfaadt was 2-2, 4.68 in five September starts.
Arizona is 8-11 in his starts, 5-5 at home.
Under is 4-1 in his last five starts.
He’s never pitched in the playoffs.
He hasn’t pitched against Milwaukee.

Arizona lost its last four games overall, scoring three runs.
Arizona lost six of its last nine road games.
Diamondbacks are in playoffs for first time since 2017.
Lovullo’s playoff record: 1-3

Burnes is 1-0, 1.59 in his last four starts.
Milwaukee is 18-14 in his starts, 8-5 at home.
Under is 4-2 in his last six starts.
He is 1-0, 1.20 in seven playoff games (15 IP, 1 start)
He is 2-1, 3.77 in five starts vs Arizona.

Milwaukee won four of its last five games overall.
Milwaukee is 9-4 in its last 13 home games.
Brewers are in playoffs for fifth game in six years.
Counsell’s playoff record: 7-10

Miami @ Philadelphia
Luzardo is 2-1, 2.61 in his last seven starts.
Marlins are 19-12 in his starts, 7-3 in his last 10 road outings.
Over is 4-1 in his last five starts.
He is 0-1, 5.91 in three playoff games (2 starts)
He is 3-0, 3.26 in five starts vs Philadelphia

Marlins won five of its last seven games overall.
Miami is 10-6 in its last 13 road games.
Marlins are in playoffs for first time since 2020
Last time Miami was in playoffs in a full season: 2003
Schumaker’s playoff record: 0-0 (first year as a manager)

Wheeler is 4-0, 3.73 in his last seven starts.
Phillies are 19-13 in his starts, 7-2 in his last nine home starts.
Over is 7-1 in his last eight home starts.
He is 1-3, 2.78 in six playoff starts.
He is 10-4, 2.28 in 22 starts vs Miami.

Phillies won 8 of their last 11 games overall.
Philly is 6-1 in its last seven home games.
Phillies are in playoffs for second year in a row.
Before last year, last time they were in playoffs was 2011.
Thomson’s playoff record: 11-6

 

[Cnotes53]

TUESDAY, OCTOBER 3​

Game	Time(ET)	Pick	Units
TEX at TB	03:08 PM	TEX +138 O 7.5	+500 +500
TOR at MIN	04:38 PM	MIN -116 O 7.5	+500 +500
ARI at MIL	07:08 PM	ARI +149 U 8.0	+500 +500
MIA at PHI	08:08 PM	PHI -143 U 7.5	+500 +500

 

[Cnotes53]

Completed Picks​

Past Completed Picks

Date	W-L-T	%	Units	Record
10/03/2023	5-3-0	62.50%	+1285	Detail

 

[Cnotes53]

MLB PLAYOFF BEST BETS !

10/03/2023......................3 - 3............................50.00%..........................- 1.50

TOTALS...........................3 - 3............................50.00%...........................- 1.50

 

[Cnotes53]

Wednesday’s 6-pack:
— Rangers 3, Rays 0— Montgomery tossed 7 shutout IP.
— Tampa Bay is 5-13 in its last 18 playoff games.
— Twins 3, Blue Jays 1— Royce Lewis homered twice.
— Minnesota ends its 18-game postseason losing streak.
— Arizona 6, Brewers 3— Arizona hit three HR’s off of Burnes
— Phillies 4, Marlins 1— Wheeler allowed one run in 6.2 IP.

Quote of the Day
“We playing football. He’s mad he got hit? What do most quarterbacks do when they don’t want to get hit? They go down. I don’t really know what else to tell him about that.”
Giants’ LB Isaiah Simmons, talking about Monday night’s game with Seattle

Wednesday’s quiz
Before last night, who was manager of the Minnesota Twins last time they won a playoff game?

Tuesday’s quiz
Mark Sanchez was the Jets’ quarterback, last time they played in a playoff game.

Monday’s quiz
Rex Ryan was coach of the New Jersey Jets, last time they made the NFL playoffs, in 2010.

*******************************************

Wednesday’s Den: How NFL offenses are doing on first drive of a half​

Today we’re looking at how NFL offenses do on their first drive of each half; four games for each team, so eight drives for everyone.

First drive of a game:
Who game plans best during the week?

— 49ers have three TD’s and FG on their first drive of a game, 24 points (41 plays, 255 yards).
Denver has three TD’s on their first drives (35 plays, 236 yards)
Rams have two TD’s, two FG’s on their first drive (44 plays, 248 yards)
— Miami is averaging 10.8 yards/play on its opening drives (28 plays, 302 yards); they’ve scored two TD’s and field goal on those drives.

— Minnesota’s offense has run 21 plays for 129 yards on opening drives, but the opponents’ defense has outscored the Viking offense, 7-0, thanks to a 99-yard pick-6. Not good.

— Giants/Browns have both been outscored 7-3 on their first drives. Giants gave up a blocked FG for a TD, Browns gave up a defensive TD.

— In their four games, Jets have run 14 plays for 32 yards on their first drive.
Steelers have run 17 plays for 24 yards.
Jaguars have run 22 plays for 71 yards.
None of those teams have scored on an opening drive.

First drive of second half:
Who makes the best offensive adjustments at halftime?

— Green Bay has three TD’s on their first drive of 2nd half (29 plays, 222 yards)
Eagles have two TDs, two FG’s on their first drive of 2nd half (34 plays, 160 yards)

— Dallas has run 45 plays for 234 yards on their first drive of 3rd quarter, but scored only one TD- they kicked three FG’s, too.

— Surprisingly, Arizona has run 33 plays for 227 yards, scoring 18 points, part of why they’re 3-1 against the spread already.

— Buffalo has run 36 plays for 208 yards, but only has a TD and a FG to show for it.

— Detroit has run only 10 plays for 12 yards on its first 3rd quarter drive; three 3/outs and a lost fumble. They only gained 84 yards on 16 plays on their first drive of the game, surprising.

— There are four teams who haven’t scored on their first drive of third quarter:
Denver 20 plays, 129 yards
Detroit 10 plays, 12 yards
Houston 19 plays, 14 yards
Las Vegas 23 plays, 79 yards, 2 INT’s.

First drive of all eight halves:
— Rams/Eagles play each other this week; they also share the NFL lead with 33 points scored on their first drive of a half.
Dolphins, Packers, 49ers are next, with 31 points each.

— Dallas has gained 446 yards on 79 plays (29 points) on their first drive of a half, the most yards of any team, followed by the Rams (77 plays, 438 yards), Eagles (76 plays, 425 yards)

— Giants have run 71 plays for 320 yards, good for 10 points, but they also gave up a TD on a blocked FG, so they’re only +3 in points on first drives.

— Vikings have run 47 plays for 236 yards, scoring a TD, giving up a TD to the defense.

— Houston Texans have run total of 41 plays for only 83 yards on their first drive of a half, fewest yards in the league.
Detroit, surprisingly, has run 26 plays for only 96 yards.
NFL games are relatively short (nine or so drives per team); the first drive of each half makes up maybe 20-25% of all drives, which is significant.
Tomorrow, we’ll look at which defenses do best/worst in this situation.

 

[Udog]

MLB
Weather Report

Wednesday, October 4

TAMPA BAY is 59-43 SU (11.7 Units) in home games in day games in the last 3 seasons.

MINNESOTA is 25-58 SU (-38.8 Units) after having won 5 or 6 of their last 7 games in the last 3 seasons.

MILWAUKEE is 12-4 Over (7.6 Units) in home games against NL West opponents in the current season.

MIAMI is 28-9 SU (18.1 Units) in road games when playing on Wednesday in the last 3 seasons.




MLB
Dunkel

Wednesday, October 4

MLB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Wednesday, October 4

Texas (1-0) @ Tampa Bay
Eovaldi is 1-1, 10.13 in his last three starts.
Rangers are 15-10 in his starts, 1-4 in last five road starts.
Over 4-1-1 last six starts
He is 4-3, 3.14 in 11 playoff games (6 starts).
He is 7-6, 3.89 in 15 starts vs Tampa Bay.


Rangers’ bullpen pitched only 2 innings last night.
Texas was 2-13 with RISP.
Texas is in the playoffs for first time since 2016.
Bochy won three World Series when he managed the Giants.
His postseason record: 45-33


Tampa Bay won Eflin’s last six starts (3-0, 3.24)
Tampa Bay is 23-8 in his starts, 14-4 at home.
Over is 7-2 in his last nine starts.
He’s given up 4 runs in 10.2 IP in 10 playoff relief stints
This is his first playoff start.
He gave up 7 runs in 4 IP in his one start vs Texas, in 2017.


Tampa Bay committed four errors last night.
Rays had only six hits last nite, was 1-6 with RISP.
Tampa had 3 relievers throw four innings last nite.
Tampa Bay is in the playoffs for the sixth year in a row.
Cash’s playoff record: 15-18


Toronto @ Minnesota (1-0)
Berrios was 2-2, 3.41 in five September starts.
Toronto is 17-15 in his starts, 9-8 on road.
Under is 3-1 in his last four starts.
He is 0-1, 3.75 in three playoff games (2 starts)
He is 3-1, 4.03 in five starts vs Minnesota.


Toronto had 6 hits last nite, was 2-9 with RISP.
Toronto used five relievers last night; they got 12 outs.
Blue Jays lost five of their last seven games.
Toronto is in playoffs for third time in four years.
Schneider’s playoff record: 0-3


Gray is 1-1, 1.06 in his last three starts.
Minnesota is 14-18 in his starts, 1-5 in his last six at home.
Under 3-0 in his last three starts.
He is 0-2, 2.95 in four playoff starts.
He is 4-4, 2.91 in 14 starts vs Toronto.


Minnesota won last nite, first playoff win since 2004.
Twins used 4 relievers last night; they got last 10 outs.
Minnesota is 9-3 in its last 12 games overall.
Twins are in playoffs for first time since 2020.
Baldelli’s playoff record: 1-5


Arizona (1-0) @ Milwaukee
Gallen is 3-2, 3.73 in his last five starts.
Arizona is 19-15 in his starts, 7-11 on road.
Over is 5-2-1 in his last eight starts.
He’s never pitched in the playoffs.
He is 3-3, 1.75 in six starts vs Milwaukee.


Arizona trailed 3-0 last nite, rallied for 6-3 win.
Six relievers got 19 outs.
Arizona was 1-10 with RISP, still scored six runs.
Diamondbacks are in playoffs for first time since 2017.
Lovullo’s playoff record: 2-3


Peralta was 1-2, 3.97 in five September starts.
Milwaukee is 17-13 in his starts, 12-4 at home.
Under is 2-0-1 in his last three starts.
He is 0-0, 3.13 in three playoff games (8 IP, 1 start)
He is 3-0, 0.55 in four games (2 starts) vs Arizona.


Milwaukee had 12 hits last night- they were 3-11 with RISP.
Milwaukee used six relievers to get 15 outs last nite.
Closer Williams threw 31 pitches last nite.
Brewers are in playoffs for fifth game in six years.
Counsell’s playoff record: 7-11


Miami @ Philadelphia (1-0)
Garrett is 2-2, 2.45 in his last five starts.
Marlins are 21-10 in his starts, 10-5 on road.
Under is 6-3 in his last nine starts.
He’s never pitched in the playoffs.
He is 2-1, 4.50 in five starts vs Philadelphia


Marlins had 9 hits last nite, were 2-7 with RISP
Miami used four relievers, for an inning each.
Marlins are in playoffs for first time since 2020
Last time Miami was in playoffs in a full season: 2003
Schumaker’s playoff record: 0-1 (first year as a manager)


Nola is 0-0, 2.13 in his last two starts.
Phillies are 19-13 in his starts, 5-0 in his last five home starts.
Over is 4-1 in his last five starts.
He is 2-2, 4.91 in five playoff starts.
He is 5-10, 3.58 in 23 starts vs Miami.


Phillies had 11 hits last nite, were 3-14 with RISP
Three relievers got the last seven outs.
Phillies won 9 of their last 12 games overall.
Philly is 7-1 in its last eight home games.
Phillies are in playoffs for second year in a row.
Before last year, last time they were in playoffs was 2011.
Thomson’s playoff record: 12-6




MLB

Wednesday, October 4

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Trend Report
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Texas @ Tampa Bay
Texas
Texas is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Tampa Bay
Texas is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 6 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Tampa Bay's last 11 games

Toronto @ Minnesota
Toronto
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Toronto's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Toronto's last 5 games when playing on the road against Minnesota
Minnesota
Minnesota is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Toronto
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Minnesota's last 5 games when playing at home against Toronto

Arizona @ Milwaukee
Arizona
Arizona is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Milwaukee
Arizona is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Milwaukee
Milwaukee
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Milwaukee's last 5 games when playing Arizona
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Milwaukee's last 13 games at home

Miami @ Philadelphia
Miami
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Miami's last 5 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Miami's last 5 games
Philadelphia
Philadelphia is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 5 games when playing at home against Miami


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[Udog]

MLB
Long Sheet

Wednesday, October 4

 

[Cnotes53]

WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 4​

Game	Time(ET)	Pick	Units
TEX at TB	03:08 PM	TEX +142 U 8.0	+500 +500
TOR at MIN	04:38 PM	MIN -126 U 7.5	+500 +500
ARI at MIL	07:08 PM	ARI +114 O 7.5	+500 +500
MIA at PHI	08:08 PM	PHI -148 U 8.0	+500 +500

 

[Cnotes53]

Streak SurvivorProfile

Date	League	Game	Score	Status	Pick
Oct 4, 2023	MLB	Arizona Milwaukee	- -	07:08 PM	ARI +114

 

[Cnotes53]

Completed Picks​

Date	League	Game	Score	Pick	Outcome
Oct 4, 2023	MLB	Arizona Milwaukee	5 2	ARI +114	Win

 

[Cnotes53]

Completed Picks​

Past Completed Picks

Date	W-L-T	%	Units	Record
10/04/2023	5-1-2	75.00%	+2230	Detail
10/03/2023	5-3-0	62.50%	+1285	Detail

 

[Cnotes53]

MLB PLAYOFF BEST BETS !

10/04/2023......................5 - 1............................83.33%..........................+ 22.30
10/03/2023......................3 - 3............................50.00%..........................- 1.50

TOTALS............................8 - 4............................66.66%.........................+ 20.80

 

[Cnotes53]

Thursday’s 6-pack:
Odds to win the Stanley Cup this season:
8-1— Maple Leafs
17-2— Avalanche
9-1— Oilers
10-1— Hurricanes, Devils
11-1— Golden Knights
13-1— Rangers

Quote of the Day
“We haven’t had a road win yet. We pride ourselves on the road on playing really good football, good defense, good scheme. We need it for morale, we need it for our ranking, we need it for everything.”

Joe Burrow
Thursday’s quiz
Cincinnati Bengals have played in three Super Bowls, with three different QB’s; who were they?

Wednesday’s quiz
Before Tuesday night, Ron Gardenhire was manager of the Minnesota Twins last time they won a playoff game, in 2004.

Tuesday’s quiz
Mark Sanchez was the Jets’ quarterback, last time they played in a playoff game.

**********************************************

Thursday’s Den: Doing some thinking out loud…….​

Four best-of-3 series, four sweeps. Not what the MLB office had in mind for this week.

— Rangers 7, Rays 1
Rookie Carter homered, Eovaldi got 20 outs, allowing one run.
Tough end to year for Tampa squad after their 99-63 season.
Attendance for two games: 19,704/20,198— disappointing.
Texas moves on to play the Orioles next.

— Texas manager Bruce Bochy hit 26 home runs in his playing career; he was mostly a backup catcher, but he has one great claim to fame as a player.
Bochy is the only player ever to hit a walk-off home run against Nolan Ryan.

— Twins 2, Blue Jays 0
Sonny Gray tossed five shutout IP for Minnesota.
Twins used five relievers to get the last 12 outs.
Minnesota moves on to play the Astros in the next round.

— Diamondbacks 5, Brewers 2
Zac Gallen gave up 2 runs in first inning, nothing for next five innings.
Alek Thomas homered for Arizona.
Diamondbacks move on to play their division rival Dodgers next.

— Phillies 7, Marlins 1
Bryson Stott hit a grand slam.
Aaron Nola allowed only four baserunners in 7 shutout IP.
Phillies move on to play their division rivals, the Braves.

— I know my Oakland A’s had a cruddy year; they went 50-112, mostly because their owner is a cheap bastard who doesn’t try to win, but keep this in mind; on the 12 teams that did make the playoffs this year, there are 23 players who at one time did play for the A’s.
Olson. Semien. Bassitt. Chapman. Murphy. Luzardo. Heim.
Good players.
Maybe Bill Gates will take an interest in baseball and buy the team.

— Wednesday was the first day of 50 consecutive days with at least one football game on TV; Conference USA. MAC are putting their games on Tuesdays/Wednesdays the next few weeks.

— Word of the Day: Acumen— the ability to make good judgments and quick decisions.

— They have a survivor football pool at the Circa Casino in Las Vegas; you pick one team a week, all they have to do is win, but you can only pick the same team once a season, and if your team loses, you’re eliminated.
9,267 entered the Circa contest; after four weeks, only 2,383 entrants are left. First prize for the last person standing is $9,267,000.

— NBA training camps have started; it must suck playing for the LA Clippers. You get paid millions to play basketball and for training camp, they send you to……..Hawai’i.
Must be awful.

— San Diego Padres’ 3B Manny Machado is having elbow surgery; it is unclear if he’ll be ready for the start of spring training next year. 31-year old Machado hit 30 homers this year; his OPS was the lowest it has been since 2017.

— Last three games, Buffalo Bills have started eight drives in enemy territory; their opponents haven’t started any in Buffalo territory.

— Miami Dolphins coach Mike McDaniel grew up in the Denver area; when he was in high school, he was a Broncos’ ballboy, had to be odd when his Dolphins whacked Denver 70-20 a couple weeks ago.

— The timing of NFL byes can be good/bad luck; Seattle is playing really well, having an early bye like this one can’t be their favorite thing.
On the other hand, Browns/Chargers have banged-up quarterbacks- they have to feel lucky that their signal caller has a week off to try and get healthier.

 

[Udog]

Division series begin Saturday.

 

[Cnotes53]

Friday’s 6-pack:
College football totals trends:

5-0 over teams
LSU
Boston College

5-0-1 over
Vanderbilt

4-0 over
North Texas

5-0 under
Ohio U
Utah
Arizona

Quote of the Day
“…….Butkus was a well-conditioned animal, and every time he hit you, he tried to put you in the cemetery, not a hospital.”
Hall of Fame DE Deacon Jones

Friday’s quiz
Mark Sanchez was the Jets’ quarterback, last time they played in a playoff game.

Thursday’s quiz
Cincinnati Bengals have played in three Super Bowls, with three different QB’s; Ken Anderson, Boomer Esiason, Joe Burrow.

Wednesday’s quiz
Before Tuesday night, Ron Gardenhire was manager of the Minnesota Twins last time they won a playoff game, in 2004.

*************************************

Friday’s Den: Random stuff with the weekend here…….​

— Bears 40, Commanders 20:
Chicago snaps a 14-game losing streak.
Bears in first half: 42 plays, 307 yards, 3 TD, 2 FG on five drives.
DJ Moore caught eight passes for 230 yards and 3 TD’s.
Chicago ran ball for 178 yards (5.6 yards/carry).
Last four weeks, Commanders gave up 33-37-34-37 points.
Down 30-20 with 5:10 left, Washington missed a 46-yard FG.
Washington is 5-11 ATS last 16 games as a home favorite.
Commanders are 8-12 ATS in last 20 games coming off a loss.

— Commanders have started 13 different QB’s since 2017, which is a lot. Seems like 2nd-year QB Sam Howell will grab a hold on that position for the foreseeable future.

— Here are the top 12 picks in the first round of the 1965 NFL Draft
1) Tucker Frederickson, RB, NYG
2) Ken Willard, RB, SF
3) Dick Butkus, LB, Chi
4) Gale Sayers, RB, Chi
5) Craig Morton, QB, Dal
6) Steve DeLong, DE, Chi
7) Donny Anderson, RB-P, GB
8) Jack Snow, WR, Minn
9) Clancy Williams, DB, Rams
10) Larry Elkins, WR, GB
11) Tom Nowatzke, RB, Det
12) Joe Namath, QB, StL
Gale Sayers the 4th pick? Were college games on TV back then?
Craig Morton over Joe Namath was an interesting decision.

— RIP to the great linebacker Dick Butkus, who passed away Thursday at age 80. Not only was Butkus a Hall of Fame linebacker, he had a decent acting career after his playing days were over. He has 62 acting credits on IMDB.com
Butkus played one of the opposing coaches for Al Pacino’s Miami Sharks in Any Given Sunday;

— Jacksonville State 45, Middle Tennessee 30
1-5 Middle Tennessee led 23-7 at halftime.
5-1 Jacksonville State outscored them 38-7 in second half.
MTSU gained 563 yards, still lost by 15 points.
Gamecocks now have a +11 turnover ratio in six games.

— New Mexico State 34, Florida International 17
Game was tied 14-all at halftime.
Aggies had TD plays of 43-49 yards.
New Mexico State ran ball for 183 yards (5.9 yards/carry).
Aggies are 9-3 ATS in last 12 games as a home favorite.

— Liberty 21, Sam Houston State 16
Flames were a 21-point favorite; they led 21-10 at halftime.
Liberty ran for 191 yards, outgained Bearkats 448-327.
Liberty averaged 13.5 yards per pass attempt.
Sam Houston is 0-5, but last two losses were 38-45/16-21.

— Western Kentucky 35, Louisiana Tech 28
Hilltoppers led 35-7 at halftime.
WKU had four TD plays of 29+ yards.
WR Corley caught 8 passes for 207 yards and three TD’s.
Tech was 4-17 on 3rd down, 4-6 on 4th down.

— Word of the Day: Distraction- a thing that prevents someone from giving full attention to something else.

— Mets’ general manager Billy Eppler quit Thursday; Mets hired David Stearns last week to be the new head of the front office, but Eppler was expected to stick around in the #2 position.
There is no evidence that Eppler was good at his job anyway; he was the top guy for the Angels and Mets, two big-market teams with huge payrolls and he still didn’t accomplish much— he is the guy who paid Anthony Rendon more than Mike Trout or Shohei Ohtani.
Mets had a $357M payroll this year but still lost more games than they won.

— There are TV commercials on during the day trying to get people to buy gold; Chuck Woolery is the spokesman on the commercials— he was the original host of Wheel of Fortune back when I was in high school in the mid-70’s.
He is 82 years old now, hasn’t had a game show gig since 2007, but he’s still out there doing commercials.

— Fontainebleau Hotel and Casino in Las Vegas is expected to open December 13; the 67-story hotel has a six-acre pool complex and has 36 bars/restaurants. It cost $3.7B to build, which is a nice way of saying I can’t afford to stay there

— So far this season, Cincinnati Bengals have had only five plays that gained 20+ yards; their opponents have 17.

— In their last three games, Denver Broncos have given up 23 plays of 20+ yards.

— Minnesota Timberwolves beat Dallas Mavericks 111-99 in the first NBA preseason game of the year Thursday; the game was played in Abu Dhabi, the first of two games they’ll play there.
Karl-Anthony Towns scored 21 points in 17:00 for Minnesota.

— This weekend’s Diamondback-Dodger playoff series will be the fifth time in the last seven years that the #1-#2 teams in NL West have faced each other in the playoffs.

 

[Udog]

BALTIMORE is 16-5 Under (10.5 Units) after 5 or more consecutive unders over the last 2 seasons.


MINNESOTA is 27-58 SU (-36.8 Units) after having won 5 or 6 of their last 7 games in the last 3 seasons.


PHILADELPHIA is 42-61 SU (-23.4 Units) vs. a team with a good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 or better in the current season.


LA DODGERS are 23-8 SU (17.8 Units) vs. an NL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.250 or better in the current season.




MLB
Dunkel

Saturday, October 7

MLB
Long Sheet

Saturday, October 7

MLB

Saturday, October 7

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Trend Report
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Texas @ Baltimore

Texas

Texas is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Baltimore

Texas is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games on the road

Baltimore

The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Baltimore's last 5 games

The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Baltimore's last 5 games at home


Minnesota @ Houston

Minnesota

Minnesota is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road

Minnesota is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games

Houston

Houston is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games

Houston is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 games when playing Minnesota


Philadelphia @ Atlanta

Philadelphia

The total has gone OVER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 5 games on the road

Philadelphia is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games

Atlanta

The total has gone OVER in 19 of Atlanta's last 25 games

The total has gone OVER in 6 of Atlanta's last 8 games at home


Arizona @ LA Dodgers

Arizona

Arizona is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road

Arizona is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road

LA Dodgers

LA Dodgers is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Arizona

The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LA Dodgers's last 6 games at home

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[Cnotes53]

Saturday’s 6-pack:
Super Bowls won, by division:
13— NFC East
9— AFC West, AFC East
8— NFC West, AFC North
5— NFC North
3— NFC South
2— AFC South

Quote of the Day
“With a heavy heart, I want to let everyone know I had “Tommy John” surgery today and will miss next season. I am most saddened for the great Marlins fans, who were so supportive of me and the team this year. The drive to the playoffs was thrilling for all of us.”
Sandy Alcantara

Saturday’s quiz
When the Marlins acquired Jazz Chisholm from Arizona, who did they send to the Diamondbacks?

Friday’s quiz
Mark Sanchez was the Jets’ quarterback, last time they played in a playoff game.

Thursday’s quiz
Cincinnati Bengals have played in three Super Bowls, with three different QB’s; Ken Anderson, Boomer Esiason, Joe Burrow.

******************************************************

Saturday’s Den: Early thoughts on this year’s college basketball​

— Florida Atlantic made a miraculous run to the Final Four last year, then somehow kept both their head coach and all their players, as they move up from Conference USA to the AAC.
AAC lost three teams to the Big X, added six other teams.
Tulsa went 5-25 last year, then cleaned house; they have only one scholarship player returning.

— San Diego State beat FAU 72-71 in national semi-final, then lost to UConn in the national title game; they lost five 5th-year players from last year’s team, but re-tooled with some transfers and still figure to be prominent in the Mountain West race.
San Jose State had their first winning season since 2011.
Only new coach in Mountain West is Utah State’s Danny Sprinkle, who takes over from Ryan Odom, who bolted to Virginia Commonwealth.

— Atlantic 15 was #13 conference LY, tied for their worst ranking ever- they only got one team into the NCAA’s. VCU had won nine in a row heading into March Madness, but lost 63-51 to Saint Mary’s in their first round game.
VCU coach Rhoades jumped from VCU to Penn State, a strange decision (Penn State will have an almost all-new roster this year). Penn State is a football school; VCU is a basketball school, you’d think a basketball coach would much rather be there.

— Big 14 hasn’t won a national championship since 2000, when Michigan State won; they didn’t have a team in the Elite 8 the last two years, had only four Sweet 16 teams the last three years.
Purdue gets big man Zach Edey back; they figure to be very good again.

— Since 2015, five of the 15 ACC basketball teams have made it to a Final Four.

— CAA is now the Coastal Athletic Association, not the Colonial; last year they slipped from the #14 league to the #26 league- they had seven of their teams finish outside the top 300. There is a new CAA team this year; the Campbell Camels.

— Word of the Day: Continuity— the unbroken and consistent existence or operation of something over a period of time.

— BYU has bolted from the WCC to the Big 12, leaving the WCC with nine teams (for now).
Last year, Portland Pilots had players from eight different countries.

— Big X had seven teams in the NCAA’s last year; they add four new teams this year, the year before Texas/Oklahoma bolt to the SEC, then they’ll have 16 teams next year, when lot of the old Pac-12 teams join the league.
Josh Eilert is interim coach at West Virginia, replacing Hall of Famer Bob Huggins; he’ll try to win enough games to get the interim tag removed.

— Big West was the #15 league LY; after being the #30 league in 2020, they’ve been #15-19-15 the three years since then.
Cal-Northridge hired Andy Newman, the league’s only new coach this year.
Cal-Davis player Drew Carter used to be a quarterback at Colorado; he threw 12 passes for the Buffaloes in 2021. I’m told that Colorado has a new football coach now, and his son is the QB, so Carter is at Cal-Davis playing basketball now.

— Princeton got to the Sweet 16 last year, upsetting Arizona/Missouri; they were the 4th Ivy League team to make the Sweet 16, the first since Cornell in 2010.
When Magic Johnson/Larry Bird played in the Final Four in 1979, one of the other two teams in the Final Four that year was the Penn Quakers.

— Rick Pitino is the new coach at St John’s; he overhauled the roster, with nine players hitting the road, as Pitino added 10 new players, including two guys from the Ivy League.
St John’s hasn’t made the NCAA’s since 2019; they’ve made it twice since 2011, it would be really surprising if Pitino doesn’t make them a perennial top 25 team.

— Tobin Anderson replaced Pitino at Iona; he led Fairleigh Dickinson to the NCAA’s LY, where they upset Purdue.
Iona has been in six of the last seven NCAA Tournaments, so there are big expectations in New Rochelle, but they have only one player back from last year- they added 12 new players.

 

[Udog]

MLB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Saturday, October 7

Texas @ Baltimore
Dunning is 2-1, 2.18 in his last four starts.
Rangers are 18-12 in his starts, 6-10 on road.
Under 3-1 last four starts
He gave up two hits in 0.2 IP, in his one playoff start (as an opener)
He is 0-0, 2.25 in three starts vs Baltimore.


Rangers won 10 of their last 14 games.
Texas was 42-41 on the road.
Texas is in the playoffs for first time since 2016.
Bochy won three World Series when he managed the Giants.
His postseason record: 46-33


Bradish is 1-1, 1.57 in his last four starts.
Baltmore is 19-11 in his starts, 8-4 at home.
Under is 4-0 in his last four starts.
This is his first playoff start.
He is 0-0, 1.35 in three starts vs Texas.


Orioles won six of their last eight games.
Baltimore is 49-32 at home.
Orioles haven’t played since Sunday.
Baltimore is in the playoffs for first time since 2016.
Hyde’s playoff record: 0-0


These teams split six meetings this season.


Minnesota @ Houston
Ober is 2-0, 2.08 in his last four starts.
Minnesota is 16-10 in his starts, 7-5 on road.
Over 7-4 in his last 11 starts.
This is his first playoff start.
He is 0-0, 4.50 in two starts vs Toronto.


Minnesota won 10 of their last 13 games.
Twins allowed one run in two games vs Toronto
Minnesota is 40-41 on the road.
Twins are in playoffs for first time since 2020.
Baldelli’s playoff record: 2-5


Verlander is 2-0, 1.89 in his last three starts.
Houston is 7-4 in his starts, 2-3 at home.
Over is 6-3 in his last nine starts.
He is 16-11, 3.64 in 34 playoff starts.
He is 22-10, 2.76 in 40 starts vs Minnesota.


Houston won five of its last six games.
Houston hasn’t played since Sunday.
Astros are 39-42 at home this season.
Astros won the World Series LY, lost WS in 2019, 2021.
Houston is in the playoffs for 7th year in a row.
Baker’s playoff record: 51-46


Twins won four of six meetings this year.


Arizona @ Los Angeles
Kelly is 1-1, 1.93 in his last three starts.
Arizona is 16-14 in his starts, 9-4 on road.
Over is 3-1 in his last four starts.
He’s never pitched in the playoffs.
He is 0-11, 5.49 in 16 starts vs Los Angeles.


Arizona split their last ten games overall.
Diamondbacks won five of last seven road games.
Arizona scored 11 runs in its two-game sweep of Milwaukee.
Diamondbacks are in playoffs for first time since 2017.
Lovullo’s playoff record: 3-3


Kershaw is 1-1, 1.26 in his last three starts.
Los Angeles is 17-7 in his starts, 7-2 at home.
Under is 6-2-2 in his last ten starts.
He is 13-12, 4.22 in 31 playoff starts.
He is 22-12, 2.73 in 44 starts vs Arizona.


Dodgers won six of their last nine games.
They’re 53-28 at home.
LA hasn’t played since Sunday.
Dodgers are in playoffs for 11th year in a row.
LA won the 2020 World Series.
Roberts’ playoff record: 45-36


Dodgers were 8-5 against Arizona this year.


Philadelphia @ Atlanta
Suarez is 2-0, 5.20 in his last five starts.
Phillies are 13-9 in his starts, 6-6 at home.
Over is 3-1 in his last four starts.
He is 2-0, 1.23 in three playoff starts.
He is 2-2, 3.00 in seven starts vs Atlanta.

Phillies won 10 of their last 13 games overall.
Philly is 41-40 on the road.
Phillies are in playoffs for second year in a row.
Before last year, last time they were in playoffs was 2011.
Thomson’s playoff record: 13-6


Strider is 4-0, 4.01 in his last four starts.
Braves are 26-6 in his starts, 13-3 at home.
Over is 4-1-1 in his last six starts.
He gave up 5 runs in 2.1 IP, in his one playoff start.
He is 8-0, 1.90 in eight games (7 starts) vs Philadelphia


Braves are 7-3 in their last ten games.
Atlanta is 52-29 at home.
Braves haven’t played since Sunday.
Atlanta is in the playoffs for the sixth year in a row.
Braves won the 2021 World Series.
Snitker’s playoff record: 23-18


Braves went 8-5 against the Phillies this year.