NCAAB
Armadillo's Write-Up
Wednesday, December 11
Home side won all five Wisconsin-Rutgers games; underdogs are 4-2 ATS in series. Badgers lost their two visits to Rutgers by 4-5 points. Wisconsin lost three of last four games; they?re 0-4 away from Madison, losing only true road game by 15 at NC State. Badgers are 5-4 vs schedule #47, with best wins over Marquette/Indiana, both at home- they?re playing 5th-slowest pace in country. Rutgers lost its last two games after a 6-1 start; they?ve played schedule #294. Knights are 1-3 vs top 200 teams, with best win by 12 over #183 SF Austin, which won at Duke.
Yale won its last five games after a 2-3 start; Bulldogs split six true road games already; they won two of three OT games. Yale is experience team #51 whose eFG% defense is #5 in country- they?re 5-0 vs teams ranked outside top 200 and held last five opponents to 56.2 ppg. UMass lost its last five games after a 5-0 start (schedule #143), but all five teams they lost to are rated #109 or better- they gave up 85 ppg in last three games. Minutemen are experience team #345 that is forcing turnovers 21.7% of time- their best win is over #127 Rider.
Arizona is 9-1 vs schedule #205, losing last game by 5 at Baylor, their first true road game of season; Wildcats are forcing turnovers 23.5% of time (#37), making 39.8% of their 3?s (#23), bit they get 21.4% of their points on foul line (#72). Arizona have game with Gonzaga Saturday, have to avoid look-ahead here. Omaha lost last three games, by 9-5-8 points; they?re 4-6 vs schedule #125, 0-3 vs top 100 teams, losing by 14 at Wichita, 25 at Dayton, 9 at Saint Mary?s. Mavericks are experience team #153 that shoots 3?s well (37.9%, #40).
Tulsa is 7-2 against easiest schedule in country so far; Hurricane won three of four top 200 games, losing by 14 at Tex-Arlington- their best win was at #122 Vanderbilt. Tulsa has #31 eFG% defense while playing slow (#328) tempo; they?re experience team #110 that subs a lot (bench minutes #34). Boise State won four of last five games after an 0-2 start (schedule #69); they lost true road games by 31 at Oregon, 2 at New Mexico, and won at Pacific in 3 OT?s. Boise is experience team #9 that split a couple of Mountain West conference games last week.
Houston won its last three games after a 2-2 start, winning last game by 20 at South Carolina; Cougars are 5-2 vs schedule #167- their two losses are to BYU/Oregon, both top 60 teams. Houston is experience team #282 that grabs 39.3% of their own missed shots (#3)- their eFG% is #57 in country. Tex-Arlington lost six of eight games vs schedule #31, losing last two games, both at home. Mavericks are experience team #187 that hasn?t shot ball well; 30.9% on arc (#257), 45.7% inside arc (#264). Arlington subs a lot (bench minutes #18).
Arkansas State was 30-35 on foul line in its 71-63 home win over Missouri State LY (Missouri State was 21-26); ASU won six of its last seven games, winning last game by 3 at Tulsa- they?re experience team #126 that has played schedule #297 so far. Red Wolves are shooting 38.7% on arc (#31) but get 22.1% of their points on foul line (#48). Missouri State is 5-5 vs schedule #258, with best windy hoop over #131 Murray State- they?re 1-5 vs top 200 teams. Bears are turning ball over 22.2% of time (#296); they lost by point at home to Little Rock, a Sun Belt team.
Virginia Tech lost its last three games after a 6-0 start, but all three were top 60 losses; Hokies have wins over Clemson/Va Tech. Tech is experience team #349 that is shooting 41.6% on arc (#8)- they?re getting 45.5% of points on arc (#2). Tech is 4-0 vs teams ranked outside top 200, with all four wins by 23+ points. Chattanooga is 5-4 vs schedule #216; their best win was over #134 South Alabama. Mocs experience team #109 that lost four of five true road games, with all four losses by 10+ points, the lone win was 74-68 at #302 Troy.
Jacksonville State is playing their first D-I home game; they?re 1-6 vs schedule #84, losing last three games, by 3-7-5 points. JSU is #316 continuity team that has #300 eFG%, shooting 29.7% on arc (#272), 44.6% inside arc (#297), while turning ball over 22% of time (#292). Gamecocks sub a lot (bench minutes #11). Troy is 1-6 vs D-I teams, with lone win over #279 North Alabama; Trojans are experience team #172 that shoots 27.9% on arc (#315)- their eFG% is #327, so this game figures to be a rock fight. Troy is forcing turnovers 23.4% of time (#39).
Michigan won 14 of its last 16 games with Illinois; teams split last four meetings played here. Wolverines are 8-1 vs schedule #17, losing only try road game by 15 at NC State- they won Big 14 opener by 12 over Iowa in last game. Michigan is shooting 39.9% on arc (#22)- they?ve also beaten UNC, Gonzaga, Iowa State, Creighton. Illinois lost its last two games by total of three points after a 6-1 start; they?re experience team #234 that is turning ball over 21.7% of time (#285). Illini is grabbing 42.8% of its own missed shots, best %age in country.
Cal-Fullerton lost its last four games, three of them by 3 points; they?re 2-7 vs schedule #97, with wins over teams ranked #290/291. Titans are experience team #98 that is shooting 26.9% on arc (#329)- they?re shooting 44.5% inside arc (#300). Fullertonn is already 0-3 vs WCC teams, losing by 18-15-3 points. San Diego is 4-7 vs schedule #162; they?re continuity team #329 that has decent wins over Hofstra/Fresno State- they lost three of four true road games, with lone win by 15 over #274 Weber State. Toreros lost both their games vs Big West teams.
Fresno State was 29-38 on foul line in its 95-73 home win over California LY (Bears were 14-18); Bulldogs are 1-6 vs schedule #35- their last three losses were either by one point or in OT- they are experience team #288 whose only D-I win was by 3 over a Winthrop team that won at Saint Mary?s. 54.9% of Fresno?s shots have been behind the arc (41.9% of points). Cal Bears lost four of last five games after a 4-0 start; they?ve played schedule #147 and have three top 200 wins. Cal is experience team #215 with a new coach- they?re turning ball over 21.8% of time.
North Dakota State is experience team #37 that lost three of last five games after a 3-1 start- they?ve played schedule #277, are 4-1 vs teams ranked outside top 200, with lone loss outside top 200 to #171 Stony Brook. Bison are taking 51.8% of their shots behind arc (#2) while they play a slow (#313) pace. Cal-Northridge lost 8 of first 10 games vs schedule #36; they?re #305 experience team that has #332 eFG% defense- half of their losses are to top 100 teams. CSUN is shooting 36.4% on arc, is getting 35.5% of their points on arc (#81).
TCU is 5-2 vs schedule #261, with losses to Clemson/USC, top 100 teams; Horned Frogs are experience team #203 that is forcing turnovers 25.2% of time (#17)- they?re 2-2 vs top 200 teams, beating Cal-Irvine by 1, Illinois State by 12. TCU are shooting 34.8% on arc (#108), getting 38.6% of their points on arc (#37). Winthrop is 2-5 vs schedule #45, but one of wins was at Saint Mary?s- they also lost by only 13 at Duke. Eagles are forcing turnovers 22.1% of time, but are making only 53.1% of their foul shots, worst %age in country.
