NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up
Week 2
Saturday’s top 13 games
Alabama @ Texas
Alabama (1-0)
— 5 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 104 starts back on offensive line; soph QB 15 starts
— Since 2017, they’re 10-11 ATS as road favorites.
— Alabama is 10-3 ATS last 13 non-conference games.
— Alabama pounded Utah State 55-0 LW, running for 278 yards.
— Bama outgained the Aggies, 558-136.
Texas (1-0)
— 7 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 72 starts back on offensive line.
— Redshirt freshman QB Evers is a transfer from Ohio State.
— went 32-18 SU with Herman as HC; are 6-7 SU with Sarkisian.
— since 2015, they’re 5-1-1 ATS as a home underdog.
— In his career, Sarkisian is 8-5 ATS as a home underdog
— Texas routed UL-Monroe 52-10 LAW, outgaining ULM 383-259.
— Teams haven’t met since 2009.
— Sarkisian was OC at Alabama for two years (2019-20).
— Since 2016, Big X teams are 16-9 ATS when playing an SEC team.
South Carolina @ Arkansas
South Carolina (1-0)
— 9 starters back on offense, 5 on defense
— 129 starts back on offensive line (all 5 starters back); soph QB started 17 games at Oklahoma
— QB Rattler was 23-37/227 LW, with one TD pass, two INT’s.
— Last 3+ years, they’re 14-22 SU
— Last three years, Gamecocks are 3-7 ATS as a road underdog.
— LW, Carolina beat Georgia State 35-14; they were outgained, 311-306.
Arkansas (1-0)
— 7 starters back on offense, 4 on defense
— 101 starts back on offensive line; soph QB 15 starts
— Since 2015, they’re 12-15 ATS as a home favorite.
— Pittman is 4-3-1 ATS as a favorite.
— Under Pittman, Razorbacks are 11-6-1 ATS in SEC games.
— LW, Arkansas (-6) beat Cincinnati 31-24, running for 224 yards, giving up 325 yards in the air.
— Teams haven’t met since 2017.
— South Carolina won last three series games, scoring 46 ppg.
— Gamecocks are 2-6 ATS in last eight visits to Arkansas.
Tennessee @ Pittsburgh
Tennessee (1-0)
— 8 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 91 starts back on offensive line (4 starters); senior QB has 11 starts
— Last 2+ years, Vols are 7-4 ATS as a favorite
— In his career, Heupel is 7-8 ATS as a road favorite.
— Last five years, Tennessee is 2-1 ATS as a road favorite.
— Last 5+ years, Tennessee is 8-11 ATS out of conference.
— Vols (-33) pounded Ball State 59-10 LW, gaining 569 TY.
Pittsburgh (1-0)
— 8 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— have 145 starts back on offensive line.
— junior QB started 26 games at USC.
— Since 2018, they’re 5-3 ATS as a home underdog.
— Last seven years, they’re 23-15 ATS as an underdog overall.
— Last three years, Pitt is 7-4-1 ATS out of conference.
— LW, Pitt beat regional rival West Virginia 38-31; WVU outgained them, 404-384.
— Pitt (-3.5) won 41-34 in Knoxville LY, throwing for 301 yards, with +3 turnover ratio.
— SEC teams are 22-13 ATS in their last 35 games vs ACC teams.
Memphis @ Navy
Memphis (0-1)
— 7 starters back on offense; 6 on defense
— 61 starts back on OL; soph QB has 11 starts
— were 6-6 SU last year, after seven straight winning seasons
— Under Silverfield, Tigers are 3-11 ATS as a favorite, 0-5 on road.
— Under Silverfield, Tigers are 0-9 ATS on the road.
— Lost their opener 49-23 (+14) at Miss State, which threw for 450 yards.
— Mike Leach’s offense LW, Navy’s run game this week; extreme opposites.
Navy (0-1)
— 5 starters back on offense; 6 on defense
— 31 starts back on OL; junior QB has 10 starts.
— Last three years, Navy is 7-4 ATS as a home dog.
— Middies are underdog for 11th home game in row.
— Last three years, they’re 16-8-1 ATS coming off a loss.
— Navy lost 14-7 to I-AA Delaware LW, despite outgaining them 319-202.
— Memphis won last three series games, by 18-3-12 points.
— Tigers are 1-2 SU/0-3 ATS in last three trips to Annapolis.
Iowa State @ Iowa
Iowa State (1-0)
— 5 starters back on offense, 3 on defense
— 66 starts back on offensive line; will be QB (have no I-A experience at QB)
— Under Campbell, they’re 18-9-2 ATS as an underdog, 9-6-1 on road
— In his career, Campbell is 19-9-1 ATS as a road dog.
— Last three years, they’re 9-12-1 ATS coming off a win.
— Cyclones drubbed a I-AA team 42-10 last week.
Iowa (1-0)
— 7 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 44 starts return on offensive line; junior QB has 19 starts
— Last four years, they’re 21-13 ATS as a favorite.
— Since 2015, Iowa is +61 in turnovers (89 games)
— Since 2017, Iowa is 12-3-1 ATS outside the Big 14.
— Last week, Iowa beat I-AA South Dakota State 7-3, scoring two safeties; Hawkeyes gained 166 yards the whole game.
— Iowa won last six series games (4-1-1 ATS)
— Cyclones are 8-3 ATS in last 11 visits to Iowa City (0-2 last two)
— This is State’s first visit to Iowa since 2018.
— Since 2015, Big 14 teams are 9-7-1 ATS when playing a Big X opponent.
Virginia @ Illinois
Virginia (1-0)
— 4 starters back on offense, 6 on defense
— 22 starts back on offensive line; brought in OL from Harvard/Georgetown
— junior QB has started 20 games.
— Last four years, they’re 9-6 ATS as a road underdog.
— Last four years, they’re 12-7 ATS as a dog overall.
— Last two years, they’re 8-3 ATS coming off a win.
— 10-5 ATS in last 15 non-conference games.
— Virginia beat I-AA Richmond 34-17 LW, running for 259 yards.
Illinois (1-1)
— 7 starters back on offense, 6 on defense
— 74 starts return on offensive line; QB started 18 games at Syracuse.
— Since 2017, they’re 5-7 ATS as a home favorite.
— Illini split first two games, losing Big 14 opener 23-20 at Illinois LW.
— Illini ran ball for 260-216 yards in their first two games.
— Illinois is 2-6 ATS in its last eight non-conference games.
— Virginia (-10) hammered Illinois 42-14 LY.
— Since 2017, Big 14 teams are 15-11 ATS when playing an ACC opponent.
Kentucky @ Florida
Kentucky (1-0)
— 6 starters back on offense, 5 on defense
— 45 starts back on offensive line; junior QB 13 starts
— Since 2016, they’re 12-8-1 ATS as road underdogs
— Last four years, they’re 11-6-1 ATS as an underdog overall.
— Last four years, are 19-9 ATS coming off a win.
— Kentucky beat Miami OH 32-13 in opener, but ran ball for only 50 yards.
Florida (1-0)
— 6 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 98 starts back on offensive line (4 starters); soph QB has 1 start
— Last four years, Gators are 8-5-1 ATS as a home favorite.
— Last five years, Florida is 19-23-1 ATS vs SEC teams.
— At Louisiana, Napier was 9-10-1 ATS as a home favorite.
— Florida beat good Utah team 29-26 LW, giving up 230 rushing yards. Total yardage in the game was 451-446, Florida. They picked off pass in red zone in last minute to seal the win.
— Teams split last four meetings, after Florida had won the previous 21.
— Wildcats are 4-0-1 ATS in last five series games, but 2-4 ATS in last six visits to the Swamp.
— Under is 3-1 in last four series games.
USC @ Stanford
USC (1-0)
— 8 starters back on offense, 3 on defense
— 109 starts back on offensive line; soph QB started 7 games at Oklahoma
— Since 2015, Trojans are 14-7 ATS as a road favorite.
— Since 2017, USC is 18-25 ATS in Pac-12 games
— Last week, USC spanked Rice 66-14; they scored 3 defensive TD’s.
— Riley was 6-11-1 ATS as a road favorite at Oklahoma.
Stanford (1-0)
— 10 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 104 starts back on offensive line (5 starters); soph QB has 9 starts
— 11-19 SU last three years (71-24 the seven years before that)
— Last four years, they’re 3-6 ATS as a home underdog.
— Last week, Stanford hammered a I-AA team, 41-10.
— Last five years, Cardinal are 12-15 ATS coming off a win.
— Stanford is 5-3 SU in last eight series games.
— Cardinals upset USC 42-28 LY, as a 17-point underdog.
— Trojans are 3-5 ATS in last eight trips to The Farm.
— Over is 6-2 in last eight meetings.
Boston College @ Virginia Tech
Boston College (0-1)
— 6 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
— 29 starts back on offensive line; junior QB has 16 starts
— Last 6+ years, they’re 38-36 SU
— In two years under Hafley, they’re 4-4 ATS as a road underdog.
— New OC McNulty was tight ends coach at Notre Dame last two years.
— Last week, BC lost 22-21 at home to Rutgers, running ball for only 29 yards.
Virginia Tech (0-1)
— 4 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 62 starts back on offensive line; soph QB started 23 games at Marshall
— Last 4+ years, they’re 25-26 SU, which is why there is a new coach.
— LW, Hokies lost 20-17 at Old Dominion, despite outgaining ODU 340-245.
— Last five years, Tech is 19-23 ATS in ACC games.
— New coach Pry spent last six years as DC at Penn State.
— Boston College won three of last four series games.
— Eagles are 6-4 ATS in last ten visits to Blacksburg.
— Under is 5-2 in last seven series games.
New Mexico State @ Texas- El Paso
New Mexico State (0-2)
— 4 starters back on offense, 9 on defense
— 65 starts back on offensive line; new coach, new QBs
— Aggies lost first two games, 23-12/38-0 (0-2 ATS)
— 8-32 SU last 4+ years- their old coach bolted to a conference rival
— last two years, they’re 5-3 ATS as a road underdog.
— new coach Kill is 25-21 ATS as an underdog.
Texas- El Paso (0-2)
— 7 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
— 94 starts back on offensive line; junior QB has 19 starts
— Lost their first two games TY, 31-13/45-13.
— Coach Dimel is 14-29 ATS as a favorite.
— Miners are 7-15 ATS in last 22 non-conference games.
— UTEP outgained North Texas in opener, but lost 31-13.
— New Mexico State won/covered last three series games.
— Favorites covered last six meetings.
— Aggies are 1-3-1 ATS in last five visits to El Paso.
Baylor @ BYU
Baylor (1-0)
— 6 starters back on offense, 6 on defense
— 119 starts back on offensive line; soph QB has 2 starts
— Aranda is 5-4 ATS as an underdog.
— Since 2019, they’re 5-2 ATS as a road underdog.
— Since 2017, they’re 6-9 ATS out of conference.
— Baylor pounded a I-AA stiff LW, gaining 573 yards.
BYU (1-0)
— BYU has 8 starters back on offense, 11 on defense.
— BYU has 90 returning starts on the offensive line.
— BYU has junior QB with 10 starts.
— Last two years, BYU is 7-4 ATS as home favorites.
— Overall, Sitake is 21-25 ATS as a favorite.
— LW, BYU ran for 314 yards in a 50-21 win at South Florida.
— Last year, Baylor (-5) beat BYU 38-24 in Waco.
— Baylor outgained BYU, 534-409; ran ball for 303 yards.
Oregon State @ Fresno State
Oregon State (1-0)
— 6 starters back on offense, 9 on defense
— 76 starts back on offensive line; junior QB 15 starts
— Beavers were 1-5 ATS on road LY (11-4 from 2018-20)
— Last 4+ years, OSU is 7-4 ATS out of conference.
— Beavers beat Boise 34-17 at home LW, outgaining them 470-311.
— Oregon State averaged 12.2 yards/pass attempt vs Boise.
Fresno State (1-0)
— 8 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 80 starts back on offensive line; senior QB has 19 starts
— Jeff Tedford returns as coach (Aaron Rodgers’ college coach)
— Last three years, they’re 5-8-1 ATS at home.
— Last five years, they’re 13-5-1 ATS out of conference.
— Fresno drubbed a I-AA team 35-7 last week.
— These teams haven’t met since 2003.
— Last 3+ years, Mountain West squads are 19-14 ATS vs Pac-12 opponents.
Mississippi State @ Arizona
Mississippi State (1-0)
— 8 starters back on offense, 9 on defense
— 82 starts back on offensive line; soph QB 19 starts
— Since 2017, they’re 6-4 ATS as a road favorite.
— In his career, Leach is 19-20 ATS as a road favorite.
— Last week, Bulldogs threw for 450 yards, waxed Memphis 45-23.
— Bulldogs are 14-8 ATS in last 22 games out of conference.
— MSU plays LSU next week, has to guard against look-ahead here.
Arizona (1-0)
— 7 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
— 57 starts back on offensive line; soph QB 15 starts at Washington State
— Arizona upset San Diego St in their opener, after going 1-16 in 2020-21.
— Arizona outgained Aztecs 461-232, running ball for 162 yards.
— Since 2014, they’re 9-16 ATS out of conference.
— Last four years, Arizona is 8-6 ATS as a home underdog.
— These teams haven’t met in last 25 years.
— Since 2015, Pac-12 teams are 10-5 ATS when playing an SEC team.
