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Bowl Season
Alabama Crimson Tide Betting Analysis
Bryce Young is likely to be the first Alabama player selected with the No. 1 overall pick in the Nick Saban era. The Crimson Tide haven’t had a player go 1-1 since Joe Namath was taken with the first overall pick in the 1965 AFL Draft, but there is something truly special about Young.
He nearly willed Alabama to a win over Georgia in last year’s CFP National Championship Game, and Young posted solid numbers this season although Alabama did not have great receivers or an elite offensive line.
He completed 64.1% of his passes for 3,007 yards (8.4 YPA) with 27 touchdowns and five interceptions on the season, and he was a decent scrambler when the occasion called for it too.
Georgia Tech transfer Jahmyr Gibbs was a dark horse Heisman Trophy candidate for most of the season. Gibbs was Alabama’s best running back, picking up 850 rushing yards and seven touchdowns while averaging 6.3 YPC.
He was also the third leading receiver on the team with 42 receptions for 378 yards and three TDs. With Traeshon Holden transferring out of Tuscaloosa, the two receivers to watch in this game are Ja’Corey Brooks and Jermaine Burton.
Meanwhile, the other running back to keep an eye on alongside Gibbs is Jase McClellan.
Alabama ended the season ranked 4th overall in SP+ and 12th in Defensive SP+. The Crimson Tide boasted the best defensive player in the country in Will Anderson, and he had another dominant season with 10 sacks despite consistent double teams.
Anderson is a two-time All-American and was named the SEC Defensive Player of the Year for the last two seasons, so he should have an enormous impact on this game.
Linebacker Henry To’o To’o and defensive backs Kool-Aid McKinstry and Jordan Battle were also First Team All-SEC selections, so Kansas State will have a hard time moving the ball if this unit is locked in.
Kansas State Wildcats Betting Analysis
Adrian Martinez reportedly might be healthy enough to see action in this game, but Will Howard has been the more dynamic option under center since taking over as the starting quarterback.
Howard is completing 61.6% of his passes for 1,423 yards (8.7 YPA) with 15 touchdowns and two interceptions. He doesn’t represent the same mobile threat as Martinez, but he is a much better passer, and defenses have to respect his ability to throw downfield and make big plays.
Still, don’t be surprised if Martinez comes in with certain packages to use his mobility.
Top receiver Malik Knowles has been cleared to play after leaving the Big 12 Championship Game due to injury. Knowles was Kansas State’s best receiver with 47 receptions for 719 yards and two TDs in the passing game, so his return is big news.
Phillip Brooks, Kade Warner, and tight end Ben Sinnott have also seen extensive action as well as three-time Second Team All-Big 12 running back Deuce Vaughn. The 5’6 Vaughn ran for 1,425 yards and eight touchdowns, and he caught 42 passes for 378 yards and three TDs.
The Wildcats have one of the top defensive players in the country too in Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year Felix Anudike-Uzomah.
Anudike-Uzomah was a big part of why Kansas State ranked 16th in Defensive SP+.
This secondary was superb too, and cornerback Julius Brents was named First Team All-Big 12 after leading the Wildcats with four interceptions.
Starting cornerback Ekow Boye-Doe is expected to play in this game too after sustaining an injury in late November.
Iowa Hawkeyes Betting Analysis
The Hawkeyes will have a brand new quarterback for this bowl game as starter Spencer Petras is injured and backup Alex Padilla entered the transfer portal.
Petras and Padilla were the only two players to throw passes for Iowa this season, so Kirk Ferentz will have to rely on scout team quarterback Joey Labas to lead the way.
Labas is a redshirt freshman that was a three-star recruit out of high school, and he has yet to throw a pass. He is a mobile threat with his legs though, so Kentucky must be on the lookout for that.
Kaleb Johnson was the top running back on the team, and Iowa will likely run him 20+ times in this game. Johnson ran for 762 yards (5.4 YPC) and six touchdowns in the regular season, while backup Leshon Williams could only muster 3.6 YPC.
Standout tight end Sam LaPorta could have opted out to focus on the NFL Draft, but he instead decided to suit up one more time for the Hawkeyes.
LaPorta led the team with 53 receptions for 601 yards and a touchdown. Nico Ragaini and tight end Luke Lachey will also take part in this game, but Arland Bruce IV is entering the transfer portal.
While Iowa’s offense ended the year ranked a putrid 120th in SP+, the defense was the best in the country according to the same metric.
The Hawkeyes allowed just 15.5 PPG and 292.3 YPG, and they conceded just 4.1 yards per play (tops in the FBS). Six different players on this defense earned all-conference honors with First Team All-Big Ten linebacker Jack Campbell leading the way.
Cooper DeJean and Riley Moss are also suiting up one more time for Iowa, but safety Kaevon Merriweather opted out in order to start preparing for the NFL Draft.
Kentucky Wildcats Betting Analysis
Kentucky’s offense will look a lot different without projected first-round pick Will Levis under center. Levis has the prototypical size and arm strength that NFL teams covet, but he never thrived at the collegiate level.
In his stead, head coach Mark Stoops has said that three different players will take snaps for Kentucky.
Redshirt freshman Kaiya Sheron seems likely to receiver the bulk of the snaps after being the primary backup (29 attempts) during the season, but true freshman Destin Wade and Iowa transfer Deuce Hogan will see action.
Top running back Chris Rodriguez Jr. has opted out of this game in order to focus on the NFL Draft and No. 2 back Kavosiey Smoke has entered the transfer portal.
JuTahn McClain (49 carries for 238 yards) is likely to be the starting running back in their absence. The Wildcats will have their top two receivers available though as Barion Brown and Dane Key are both taking part in the Music City Bowl.
No. 3 receiver Tayvion Robinson is out though, and no other player has more than 20 receptions.
The Wildcats ranked sixth in Defensive SP+ during the regular season. Kentucky did a very good job stopping opposing quarterbacks, but the front seven did have trouble against power run games at times.
The good news is that Kentucky only had one opt-out or transfer on this side of the ball though.
Top cornerback Carrington Valentine is leaving school for the NFL, yet everyone else is scheduled to play for the Wildcats on Saturday.
TCU Horned Frogs Betting Analysis
TCU hired Sonny Dykes away from crosstown rival SMU in order to give this dormant offense a spark. The Horned Frogs had been a defense-focused team for the last two decades under Gary Patterson, and it was clear that the program needed a shakeup.
Dykes has proven to be a positive disruptor as Max Duggan totally turned his career around in his final season at TCU.
Duggan was the definition of a mediocre quarterback through his first three seasons at TCU. He did show improvement as a junior in 2021, but there was a reason that Oklahoma transfer Chandler Morris was named the starting quarterback against Colorado in the season opener.
However, Morris was not sharp against the Buffaloes, and that led to Dykes turning to Duggan next week against FCS Tarleton State.
This offense has thrived with Duggan under center and is currently ranked 6th nationally in Offensive SP+. The senior quarterback has completed 64.9% of his passes for 3,321 yards (9.0 YPA) with 30 touchdowns against four interceptions and was named Big 12 Offensive Player of the Year.
Two-time First Team All-Big 12 WR Quentin Johnston is a receiver that will be playing on Sundays, and he has had the opportunity to get healthy again after being slowed by injury over the second half of the season.
Despite the injury, Johnston leads TCU with 53 receptions for 903 yards and five touchdowns. Taye Barber is another big play threat for Duggan, while Derius Davis and Savion Williams are quality complementary receivers.
Kendre Miller has been one of the most dangerous running backs in the Big 12 this season. Miller has run for 1,342 yards and 17 touchdowns while averaging 6.2 YPC, and he has the benefit of running behind two First Team All-Big 12 offensive linemen in Alan Ali and Steve Avila.
That balance has helped make TCU’s offense especially scary, and the Horned Frogs have a potential game changing return man in Derius Davis.
TCU’s defense ranked 33rd in SP+. The Horned Frogs were above average against the pass but just decent against the run, and that’s a concern against a team like Michigan. Linebacker Dee Winters will see a lot of attention and led TCU with 7.5 sacks while being a first team all-conference selection.
Defensive backs Josh Newton and Tre’Vius Hodges-Tomlinson both earned similar accolades after recording 10+ pass breakups, but the lack of size along the defensive line needs to be addressed in the game plan.
Michigan Wolverines Betting Analysis
Jim Harbaugh had Michigan start the season with a platoon system at quarterback. Cade McNamara and J.J. McCarthy split series over the first couple games, but it quickly became clear that McCarthy was the best option.
McNamara has already announced that he will transfer to Iowa after McCarthy was an all-conference selection. McCarthy completed 65.3% of his passes for 2,376 yards (8.3 YPA) with 20 touchdowns and three interceptions.
He was only sacked nine times as he is a dangerous runner too, picking up 254 rushing yards (4.2 YPC) and four TDs on the ground.
Star running back Blake Corum will be unavailable in the College Football Playoff after tearing his meniscus in the penultimate game of the regular season.
Corum was a First Team All-Big 12 running back after picking up 1,463 yards (5.9 YPC) and 18 touchdowns in 2022, but Michigan has an excellent replacement in Donovan Edwards.
Although Edwards is dealing with a hand injury, he ran for 872 yards and seven TDs while averaging 7.5 YPC in the regular season.
Edwards carved up Ohio State and Purdue’s defenses in Michigan’s last two games as this offensive line had four all-conference picks led by guard Zak Zinter.
Ronnie Bell is the only dangerous threat on the perimeter for Michigan. Bell had 56 receptions for 754 yards and three touchdowns in the regular season.
Cornelius Johnson is a big play threat (15.6 YPR and six TDs), while tight end Luke Schoonmaker was the only other player on the roster with more than 20 receptions.
Michigan’s defense was superb this season, ranking 4th nationally in SP+. The Wolverines were fantastic in pretty much every category, allowing just 13.4 PPG and 277.1 YPG, and the run defense was the second-best in college football.
Although they lost Aidan Hutchinson to the NFL, Mike Morris and Mazi Smith were both First Team All-Big Ten defensive linemen and shut down ground games.
D.J. Turner was an excellent defensive back and earned all-conference honors with 10+ pass breakups, and it’s hard to find a weak link at any level on this defense.
Ohio State Buckeyes Betting Analysis
This offense was projected to be the best in the country at the start of the season. However, Ohio State never had the explosiveness we saw at times last year.
Top running back TreVeyon Henderson and top receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba had their seasons plagued by injuries, and both Henderson and Smith-Njigba will be unavailable for the Peach Bowl due to those issues.
Still, C.J. Stroud was a First Team All-Big Ten quarterback. Stroud completed 66.2% of his passes for 3,340 yards (9.4 YPA) with 37 touchdowns and six interceptions. We didn’t see Stroud run the ball much, but he didn’t need to in this offense.
Miyan Williams was the No. 1 running back on Ohio State with Henderson injured for most of the season. Wiliams also dealt with a leg injury late in the year, but he is expected to be the starting running back for the Buckeyes in the Peach Bowl.
He ran for 817 yards (6.5 YPC) and 13 touchdowns, and freshman Dallas Hayden emerged as the No. 2 back with Henderson out.
Although Smith-Njigba only played in three games this season, Ohio State still had two 1,000-yard receivers in Marvin Harrison Jr. and Emeka Egbuka.
Harrison thrived as the go-to receiver with 72 receptions for 1,157 yards and 12 touchdowns, while Egbuka caught 66 passes for 1,039 yards and nine TDs.
Ohio State’s defense is much better than it was in 2021. The Buckeyes ranked 15th in Defensive SP+ in their first season under new defensive coordinator Jim Knowles, and they were balanced against the run and the pass.
Linebacker Tommy Eichenberg led the Buckeyes in tackles and was a First Team All-Big Ten selection, and Zach Harrison can be a real difference maker at defensive end.
Georgia Bulldogs Betting Analysis
Kirby Smart is old school when it comes to his offense, but the Bulldogs have been more pass-oriented than you might think this season. Georgia has only run the ball on 53.6% of its plays even though the Bulldogs are averaging 5.7 YPC. They have allowed Stetson Bennett to take to the air more, and he rewarded them with a fine season.
Bennett completed 68.1% of his passes for 3,425 yards (8.7 YPA) with 20 touchdowns and six interceptions.
He was only sacked seven times behind a star-studded offensive line, but he also showed some mobility by averaging 6.0 YPC with seven touchdowns once you take out sack yardage.
Georgia’s best threat in the passing game was tight end Brock Bowers. The versatile tight end was named First Team All-SEC after catching a team-high 52 passes for 726 yards and six touchdowns.
Bowers also showed that he has some wheels with three rushing touchdowns, and that made this ground game even more versatile.
Unfortunately, No. 1 receiver Ladd McConkey is questionable to play in the Peach Bowl after being injured in the SEC Championship Game.
The ground game is in great shape. Kenny McIntosh is the leading rusher on the Bulldogs with 709 yards (5.2 YPC) and 10 touchdowns.
Daijun Edwards is right behind him and is averaging 5.4 YPC, while Kendall MIlton and Branson Robinson provide depth. McIntosh is also the third leading receiver with 37 receptions for 449 yards and a TD.
The other big question hovering around this offense is the status of First Team All-SEC OT Warren McClendon. As with McConkey, McClendon suffered a knee injury in the SEC Championship Game, and his status is unknown prior to the Peach Bowl. That would be a big loss for Georgia.
Georgia’s defense is ranked 2nd in Defensive SP+. The Bulldogs had one of the best run defenses in the country, allowing just 3.0 YPC and 81.8 YPG on the ground. Jalen Carter is a probable top five pick in the 2023 NFL Draft and was a First Team All-SEC selection.
Unfortunately, top pass rusher Nolan Smith was lost for the season in late October. Starting safety Dan Jackson suffered a season-ending injury two months ago as well, but Georgia has done a better job of overcoming that setback.
Senior cornerback Christopher Smith had a fine year too and will be asked to help shut down some of the best receivers in college football.
