NCAAF
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Bowl Season
Houston Cougars Betting Analysis
The Houston Cougars landed four players on the First Team All-AAC list. Clayton Tune was electric this season, completing 67.4% of his passes for 3,845 yards (8.2 YPA) with 37 touchdowns and 10 interceptions.
Tune also led Houston in rushing yards, making him one of the most impactful players in the country. Offensive linemen Cam’Ron Johnson and Patrick Paul were also First Team All-AAC selections, and this was the second such nod for Paul.
Nathaniel ‘Tank’ Dell had another huge season on the perimeter in this offense. Dell was selected First Team All-AAC for the second straight year after hauling in 103 passes for 1,354 yards and 15 touchdowns. He is leaving school early for the NFL Draft, but he decided to take part in the Independence Bowl for one last dance with his old teammates.
Freshman Matthew Golden appears to be the most likely candidate to fill Dell’s role as he was second on the team in receiving yards and touchdowns. That helped this offense rank 9th in Offensive SP+.
Houston’s defense was one of the worst in the country this season. The Cougars ranked 115th in Defensive SP+, as the loss of defensive end Derek Parish in Week 3 was huge. D’Anthony Jones was solid up front, and Art Green made some plays in the secondary, but this unit really struggled in pass defense. Opponents averaged 285.8 YPG against this pass defense, ranking 129th nationally in that category.
Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns Betting Analysis
Starting quarterback Ben Wooldridge suffered a season-ending injury last month, so Chandler Fields will be the starter for the Ragin’ Cajuns in their bowl game. Fields did not perform well in limited action this season, completing 56.7% of his passes for 954 yards (6.1 YPA) with 10 touchdowns and four interceptions. Fields has some mobility as a runner, but he isn’t really a game changer with his legs.
Unfortunately, the inexperienced Fields won’t have ULL’s top receiver. Michael Jefferson made the decision to leave school early for the NFL Draft and opted out of the Independence Bowl.
Jefferson was the program’s top target by a mile, so the leading active receiver coming into this game is tight end Neal Johnson with 22 receptions for 277 yards and two touchdowns. To make matters worse, Dontae Fleming will enter the transfer portal, and backup running back Terrence Williams may be unavailable with an injury.
Louisiana’s defense is ranked 29th in SP+. The Ragin’ Cajuns are allowing just 5.2 yards per play, but they will be without their best edge rusher as Andre Jones won’t play in order to prepare for the NFL Draft.
They still have First Team All-SBC defensive lineman Zi’Yon Hill-Green (seven sacks) and Bralen Trahan led the team with four interceptions on his way to first team all-conference honors too. This defense ranks in the top 20 in turnover rate, so don’t be surprised if they take a few chances.
Wake Forest Demon Deacons Betting Analysis
There has been a lot of speculation surrounding the future of Sam Hartman. Wake Forest’s star quarterback has taken his game to another level over the last two seasons.
Hartman completed 63% of his passes for 3,421 yards (8.7 YPA) with 35 touchdowns and 11 interceptions while running the mesh for Dave Clawson. He can lower his shoulder and get tough yards too, and he knows how to neutralize aggressive defensive ends.
Backup running back Christian Turner and third-leading receiver Jahmal Banks will miss this game. However, star wide receiver A.T. Perry will suit up after a season in which he caught 70 passes for 980 yards and 11 touchdowns. Wake Forest has three other players that finished with more than 500 receiving yards, and Justice Ellison is averaging 4.3 YPC on the ground.
Wake Forest is allowing 31.0 PPG and 428.0 YPG. The run defense was above average this season, but the pass defense had a lot of trouble against decent quarterbacks. The Demon Deacons surrendered 8.2 YPA and 285.0 YPG through the air, ranking near the bottom of the nation in those categories.
To make matters worse, Gavin Holmes and J.J. Roberts were two of Wake Forest’s top three corners and won’t play in this game as they are entering the transfer portal. Defensive tackle Kobie Turner was an All-ACC selection, and Jasheen Davis led the Demon Deacons with eight sacks.
Missouri Tigers Betting Analysis
Brady Cook was solid in his first full season as a starter under center for Missouri. Cook completed 65.3% of his passes for 2,509 yards (7.5 YPA) with 13 touchdowns and seven interceptions.
However, he won’t have some of his top targets in the passing game on Friday night in Tampa. Leading receiver Dominic Lovett entered the transfer portal, and No. 2 receiver Barrett Banister was injured in last month’s victory over New Mexico State.
The good news is that Cook is a solid runner and picked up 547 yards and ran for six touchdowns while averaging 4.4 YPC. Cody Schrader led the Tigers in rushing with 691 yards (4.4 YPC) and eight touchdowns, and he helped Missouri convert third and fourth downs at an above average rate.
Mizzou ranked 25th in Defensive SP+. Isaiah McGuire was a Second Team All-SEC selection and led the team with seven sacks, but McGuire and a whopping nine other Tigers’ defenders will not take part in this game.
McGuire, D.J. Coleman, and Martez Manuel are all sitting out to focus on the NFL Draft. Defensive linemen Ky Montgomery and Tyrone Hopper and linebacker Xavier Simmons are injured, and four players in the back seven entered the transfer portal. That will make the Tigers significantly less intimidating on defense.
