Cnotes college football 2022-2023 news/trends/best bets thru ncaa championship !
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- Sep 10, 2018
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Army Black Knights Betting Analysis
Although Army is 5-6, the Black Knights were ineligible for a bowl game because two of their wins came against FCS opponents. They have taken a step back this season with their only wins coming against Louisiana-Monroe, UConn, and UMass, but they are still short favorites against their rival.
Tyhier Tyler will see most of the work under center for Army in this game, but we could see Jemel Jones and Cade Ballard take snaps too. Tyler leads the team with 601 rushing yards and 12 rushing touchdowns, and he is averaging 5.0 YPC running the triple option. The senior from Newport News has run for at least 100 yards in two of his last three games, and five of his eight completions on the year have been for 35 yards or more.
As a team, the Black Knights are averaging 4.9 YPC and 267.2 YPG on the ground. That ranks second nationally behind Air Force who have been in a class of their own this season. Tyson Riley and Jakobi Buchanan have seen the most carries aside from Tyler, but Riley didn't play last week, so that's something to watch.
Army ranks 51st in Defensive SP+. However, it's been surprisingly easy to run on the Black Knights this season. They are allowing 5.1 YPC and 196.0 YPG on the ground, and that puts them outside the top 100 nationally in both categories. Linebacker Leo Lowin leads the team with 84 tackles and has recorded three sacks, two interceptions, and a forced fumble. Andre Carter II was seen as a potential first-round pick at the start of the season due to his mix of size and strength, but he has not posted the numbers many were expecting.
Army has been a great team for bettors lately, covering six straight games.
Navy Midshipmen Betting Analysis
The Midshipmen had a rather curious season. Navy went 4-4 in AAC play and picked up impressive road wins over teams like UCF and East Carolina. However, they also lost to FCS Delaware in their season opener, and that defeat cost them a chance at bowl game.
There is no real mystery when it comes to the Navy offense. Tai Lavatai has been the starting quarterback nearly all season, and he leads the Midshipmen into this game. Lavatai is a decent passer that is averaging 8.6 YPG, but he isn't much of a mobile threat and is averaging just 2.7 YPC. Fulback Daba Fofana leads Navy with 749 rushing yards, and Maquell Haywood has been the most explosive rusher at 6.5 YPC.
Navy has a pretty good run defense, conceding just 3.4 YPC and 93.1 YPG on the ground. The Midshipmen have been torched through the air though, allowing 9.2 YPA (129th in the country), and they have a terrible fourth down defense and red zone defense. Linebacker John Marshall is the star of this unit with 88 tackles, 10.5 sacks, and seven passes defensed.
Although Army is 5-6, the Black Knights were ineligible for a bowl game because two of their wins came against FCS opponents. They have taken a step back this season with their only wins coming against Louisiana-Monroe, UConn, and UMass, but they are still short favorites against their rival.
Tyhier Tyler will see most of the work under center for Army in this game, but we could see Jemel Jones and Cade Ballard take snaps too. Tyler leads the team with 601 rushing yards and 12 rushing touchdowns, and he is averaging 5.0 YPC running the triple option. The senior from Newport News has run for at least 100 yards in two of his last three games, and five of his eight completions on the year have been for 35 yards or more.
As a team, the Black Knights are averaging 4.9 YPC and 267.2 YPG on the ground. That ranks second nationally behind Air Force who have been in a class of their own this season. Tyson Riley and Jakobi Buchanan have seen the most carries aside from Tyler, but Riley didn't play last week, so that's something to watch.
Army ranks 51st in Defensive SP+. However, it's been surprisingly easy to run on the Black Knights this season. They are allowing 5.1 YPC and 196.0 YPG on the ground, and that puts them outside the top 100 nationally in both categories. Linebacker Leo Lowin leads the team with 84 tackles and has recorded three sacks, two interceptions, and a forced fumble. Andre Carter II was seen as a potential first-round pick at the start of the season due to his mix of size and strength, but he has not posted the numbers many were expecting.
Army has been a great team for bettors lately, covering six straight games.
Navy Midshipmen Betting Analysis
The Midshipmen had a rather curious season. Navy went 4-4 in AAC play and picked up impressive road wins over teams like UCF and East Carolina. However, they also lost to FCS Delaware in their season opener, and that defeat cost them a chance at bowl game.
There is no real mystery when it comes to the Navy offense. Tai Lavatai has been the starting quarterback nearly all season, and he leads the Midshipmen into this game. Lavatai is a decent passer that is averaging 8.6 YPG, but he isn't much of a mobile threat and is averaging just 2.7 YPC. Fulback Daba Fofana leads Navy with 749 rushing yards, and Maquell Haywood has been the most explosive rusher at 6.5 YPC.
Navy has a pretty good run defense, conceding just 3.4 YPC and 93.1 YPG on the ground. The Midshipmen have been torched through the air though, allowing 9.2 YPA (129th in the country), and they have a terrible fourth down defense and red zone defense. Linebacker John Marshall is the star of this unit with 88 tackles, 10.5 sacks, and seven passes defensed.
- Sep 10, 2018
- 17,415
- 17
- 38
NCAAF
Bowl Season
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Trend Report
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NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up
Bowl Season
December 16
Bahamas Bowl
Miami OH vs UAB
Miami OH (6-6)
— Miami is 2-6 vs I-A teams if it scores less than 27 points.
— Red Hawks won last two games to become bowl eligible.
— Miami ran for less than 100 yards in four of last six games.
— 9 starters back on offense, 5 on defense
— 72 starts back on offensive line; junior QB has 25 starts
— Miami is 3-5 SU when they run for less than 200 yards.
— Red Hawks are 6-5 ATS in last 11 games as an underdog.
— Under is 9-2 in their I-A games this season.
— Miami is 3-2 ATS in last 10 five bowls.
— Underdogs covered four of their last five bowls.
Alabama-Birmingham (6-6)
— Trent Dilfer will coach UAB next year; they have an interim coach TY.
— UAB is 6-1 when it scores 34+ points, 0-5 when they don’t.
— Blazers ran for 228+ yards in nine of 11 I-A games.
— 6 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
— 74 starts back on offensive line; junior QB has 14 starts
— UAB is 23-15-1 in last 39 games as a favorite (3-4 TY)
— Blazers allowed 200+ rushing yards in three of last four games.
— UAB lost four of its last six games SU.
— Blazers are 2-3 SU/3-2 ATS in bowl games.
— Underdogs are 4-3 ATS in last seven Bahamas Bowls.
— Since 2018, C-USA teams are 10-5 ATS when play a MAC opponent.
— UAB (+7) lost this game 41-6 five years ago.
Cure Bowl (Orlando)
Tex-San Antonio vs Troy
Tex-San Antonio (11-2)
— UTSA won its last ten games, scoring 40.6 ppg.
— Roadrunners gave up 37-41 points in their two losses.
— Last four games, UTSA is +10 in turnovers.
— Roadrunners ran ball for 209+ yards in five of last six games.
— UTSA has 8 starters back on offense, 5 on defense.
— Roadrunners have 121 returning starts on offensive line.
— UTSA has senior QB with 28 career starts.
— Roadrunners are 30-9 SU under Traylor (26-46 from 2014-19).
— Under Traylor, UTSA is 9-3 ATS as an underdog (1-1 TY).
— Under is 5-3 in their last eight games.
— UTSA is 0-3 SU in bowls (2-1 ATS), losing 31-24/38-24 last two years.
Troy (11-2)
— Trojans also won their last ten games, giving up 15.1 ppg.
— Troy gave up 28-32 points in losses at Ole Miss, App State.
— Troy scored 34-48-45 points in its last three games.
— Trojans have 8 starters back on offense, 10 on defense.
— Troy has 94 returning starts on offensive line.
— Troy’s QB has 8 career starts- he used to play at Missouri.
— Trojans are 5-2 ATS as a favorite this season.
— Trojans’ last three games went over the total.
— Troy won its last four bowl games, scoring 42 ppg.
— Their last bowl, however, was back in 2018.
— Underdogs covered this bowl five of last six years.
— Sun Belt teams are 3-4 SU in this bowl.
— Last two years, Sun Belt teams are 8-6 ATS vs C-USA teams.
December 17
Fenway Bowl (Boston)
Cincinnati vs Louisville
Cincinnati (9-3)
— Bearcats won nine of their last 11 games SU.
— Cincy is 2-5-1 ATS as a favorite this season.
— Bearcats ran ball for 235 yards last game, only 3rd time this year.
— Cincy is 7-0 when it scores 27+ points, 2-3 when they don’t.
— 8 starters back on offense; 5 on defense; 107 starts back on OL
— junior QB started 11 games at Eastern Michigan LY; he was backup here in ’19/’20.
— Last 4+ years, Bearcats are 53-10 SU
— Cincy is 2-3 SU last five bowls, losing 24-21/27-6 last two years.
— Six of Bearcats’ last eight games stayed under the total.
— Cincinnati is 10-6 ATS last 16 non-conference games.
— Five of their last seven games were decided by 4 or less points.
Louisville (7-5)
— Louisville lost two of its last three games, scoring 18 ppg.
— Cardinals are 7-0 giving up 21 or less points, 0-5 allowing 26+ points.
— Louisville is +13 in turnovers in its wins, minus-4 in losses.
— Cardinals are +9 in turnovers TY (minus-23 previous four years)
— 7 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 116 starts back on offensive line; senior QB has 38 starts
— Louisville is 8-12-1 ATS last 21 games as an underdog (3-3 TY).
— Cardinals are 8-5-1 ATS last 14 non-conference games.
— Louisville lost three of its last four bowl games SU.
— Five of their last six games stayed under the total.
Louisville coach Satterfield quit last week to take the Cincinnati job, making this an unusual bowl games, with two interim coaches in charge.
— This is the first-ever Fenway Bowl; game was cancelled last two years.
— ACC teams are 21-11 SU last 32 games vs AAC squads.
— Last two years, ACC teams are 7-1 ATS vs AAC opponents.
New Mexico Bowl
SMU vs BYU
SMU (7-5)
— SMU won four of last five games, scoring 44.2 ppg.
— SMU gained 511.4 yards/game in those five games.
— Mustangs allowed 439+ TY in three of last four games.
— 6 starters back on offense; 7 on defense
— 74 starts back on OL; junior QB has 12 starts
— SMU is 9-6 ATS last fifteen games as a favorite.
— SMU is 10-5 ATS in last 15 non-conference games (1-2 TY).
— Mustangs lost last two bowl games, 51-10/52-28.
— SMU’s bowl game LY was PPD; they last played in a bowl in ’19.
— QB Mordecai has completed 64.3% of passes, with 31 TD’s, 9 INTs.
BYU (7-5)
— BYU won its last three games, scoring 31-52-35 points.
— Cougars are 2-7 ATS in their last nine lined games.
— BYU is 6-0 giving up 26 or less points, 1-5 allowing 27+.
— Cougars are 11-6 ATS last 17 games as an underdog.
— BYU has 8 starters back on offense, 11 on defense.
— BYU has 90 returning starts on the offensive line.
— BYU has junior QB with 10 starts.
— BYU ran ball for 220+ yards three of last four games.
— Cougars’ last three games went over the total.
— Cougars are 3-2 SU last five bowls (were favored in all five)
— Last six years, underdogs are 4-2 ATS in this bowl.
— Average total in this bowl last five years, 56.0.
Jimmy Kimmel LA Bowl (Los Angeles)
Washington State vs Fresno State
Washington State (7-5)
— Coogs won three of last four games, scoring 36 ppg.
— Coogs ran for 63.6 ypg in losses, 145.7 in wins.
— Wazzu is 7-0 giving up 20 or less points; 0-5 if allow more than 20.
— Coogs are 5-0 ATS as a favorite this season.
— Coogs are 7-10-1 ATS in last 18 non-conference games (2-0 TY).
— 4 starters back on offense, 6 on defense
— 31 starts back on offensive line; new QB was I-AA All-American at Incarnate Word
— Coogs lost four of last five bowl games (0-5 ATS)
— Under is 8-3 in Wazzu’s I-A games this year.
Fresno State (9-4)
— Fresno won its last eight games, after a 1-4 start.
— Last seven games, Fresno scored 37.7 ppg.
— Bulldogs are 8-1 if they score more than 20 points.
— 8 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 80 starts back on offensive line; senior QB has 19 starts
— Fresno is 12-5 ATS last 17 games as an underdog (2-3 TY).
— Bulldogs are 13-8-1 ATS in last 22 non-conference games (0-3 TY).
— Bulldogs were held to 297-245 TY in last two games.
— Last three games, Fresno State is +7 in turnovers.
— Five of their last six games went over the total.
— Fresno won its last three bowls, scoring 33-31-31 points.
— Coach Tedford has a 7-3 record in bowl games.
— Utah State (+7) upset Oregon State 24-13 in first LA Bowl LY.
— Mountain West teams are 1-7 SU/2-6 ATS vs Pac-12 teams TY.
— From 2017-21, MW teams were 25-16 ATS vs Pac-12 opponents.
LendingTree Bowl (Mobile, AL)
Rice vs Southern Mississippi
Rice (5-7)
— Rice lost its last three games, giving up 35.7 ppg.
— Owls are 5-0 if they score 28+ points, 0-7 if they score less.
— Six of their last nine games were decided by 7 or fewer points.
— 7 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 92 starts back on offensive line; 3 backups QB’s from LY return
— Last 4+ years, Owls are 16-38 SU (5-7 this year)
— Last four years, they’re 2-9 ATS as favorites, 22-19 as an underdog
— This is Rice’s first bowl game since 2014.
— Owls did win three of last four bowls.
— Their last three games stayed under the total.
Southern Miss (6-6)
— Southern Miss lost three of last four games SU.
— USM is 6-0 allowing 24 or less points, 0-6 giving up 26+points.
— Golden Eagles are 4-2 ATS last six games as a favorite.
— Southern Miss has 9 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
— Eagles have 71 returning starts on offensive line.
— Southern Miss is 3-0 ATS TY in non-conference games.
— 2019-21, Golden Eagles were 3-10 ATS in non-conference games.
— USM is 1-3 SU/ATS in last four bowls (favorites 4-0 ATS)
— Golden Eagles’ last bowl was in 2019.
— Four of last five Southern Miss games went over the total.
— Until this year, Rice/Southern Miss were conference rivals in C-USA.
— Rice beat USM last two seasons, 30-6/24-19.
— Sun Belt teams won their last six appearances in this bowl.
— Underdogs are 3-2 ATS in last five LendingTree Bowls.
— Last two years, Sun Belt teams are 8-6 ATS vs C-USA opponents.
Las Vegas Bowl
Florida vs Oregon State
Florida (6-6)
— Florida is 6-1 giving up less than 30 points, 0-5 if they allow 30+.
— Gators are 1-4 SU away from home TY (won 41-24 at Texas A&M)
— Underdogs covered 10 of their 12 games TY.
— Since 2018, Florida is 9-1 ATS as an underdog.
— 6 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 98 starts back on offensive line (4 starters); soph QB has 1 start
— Gators gained 445+ total yards in each of last four games.
— Florida is 4-9-1 ATS in last 14 non-conference games (2-1 TY).
— Gators lost last two bowls, 55-20/29-17.
— In his career, Napier is 2-1 SU in bowls.
— Over is 4-2 in Florida’s last six games.
Oregon State (9-3)
— Oregon State won six of last seven games, scoring 31.7 ppg.
— OSU was held to 14-16-21 points in losses to USC/Utah/Washington.
— Beavers are 9-0 when they score 24+ points.
— Beavers are 7-1 ATS as a favorite this season.
— Oregon State is 8-4 ATS in last 12 non-conference games.
— 6 starters back on offense, 9 on defense
— 76 starts back on offensive line; junior QB has 15 starts
— Beavers ran ball for 200+ yards in four of last six games.
— Oregon State lost three of last four bowls SU (favored in all four).
— Over is 5-3 in their last eight games overall.
— Favorites are 6-2 ATS in last eight Las Vegas Bowls.
— Since 2015, SEC teams are 10-6 ATS vs Pac-12 squads (0-3 TY).
— Since 2011, SEC underdogs are 5-4 ATS vs Pac-12 squads.
Frisco Bowl (Frisco, TX)
North Texas vs Boise State
North Texas (7-6)
— Mean Green is 5-3 SU in their last eight games.
— Last three games, North Texas was held to 21-21-27 points.
— UNT is 7-0 giving up 28 or less points, 0-6 allowing 31+.
— 8 starters back on offense, 5 on defense
— 106 starts back on offensive line; junior QB has 12 starts
— UNT is 10-7 ATS in last 17 games as an underdog./
— Mean Green allowed 432+ TY in nine of last 12 games.
— UNT is 6-9 ATS in last 15 non-conference games (1-2 TY)
— Mean Green is bowling for sixth time in seven years,
— North Texas lost its last five bowls (1-4 ATS) giving up 44.6 ppg.
— Over is 7-3 in their last ten games.
Boise State (9-4)
— Boise is 7-2 since changing OC’s, scoring 32.2 ppg.
— New OC Dirk Koetter was once head coach of the NFL’s Bucs.
— Boise is 8-1 when it scores 20+ points.
— Broncos ran ball for 248 ypg three of last four games.
— Boise has 8 starters back on offense, 9 on defense
— 86 starts back on offensive line; junior QB has 25 starts
— Boise is 26-19-1 ATS in last 46 games as a favorite.
— Broncos held six of last nine opponents under 275 TY.
— Boise is 5-8 ATS in last 13 non-conference games.
— Boise lost two of last three bowl games.
— Broncos also had bowl games cancelled in 2018/2021.
— Three of their last four games overall stayed under total.
— Favorites are 5-2 ATS in this bowl.
— Winning side scored 38+ points in six of seven Frisco Bowls.
— Mountain West teams are 10-8 SU last 18 games vs C-USA.
— Since 2011, C-USA underdogs are 17-12 ATS vs Mountain West teams.
Bowl Season
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Trend Report
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NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up
Bowl Season
December 16
Bahamas Bowl
Miami OH vs UAB
Miami OH (6-6)
— Miami is 2-6 vs I-A teams if it scores less than 27 points.
— Red Hawks won last two games to become bowl eligible.
— Miami ran for less than 100 yards in four of last six games.
— 9 starters back on offense, 5 on defense
— 72 starts back on offensive line; junior QB has 25 starts
— Miami is 3-5 SU when they run for less than 200 yards.
— Red Hawks are 6-5 ATS in last 11 games as an underdog.
— Under is 9-2 in their I-A games this season.
— Miami is 3-2 ATS in last 10 five bowls.
— Underdogs covered four of their last five bowls.
Alabama-Birmingham (6-6)
— Trent Dilfer will coach UAB next year; they have an interim coach TY.
— UAB is 6-1 when it scores 34+ points, 0-5 when they don’t.
— Blazers ran for 228+ yards in nine of 11 I-A games.
— 6 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
— 74 starts back on offensive line; junior QB has 14 starts
— UAB is 23-15-1 in last 39 games as a favorite (3-4 TY)
— Blazers allowed 200+ rushing yards in three of last four games.
— UAB lost four of its last six games SU.
— Blazers are 2-3 SU/3-2 ATS in bowl games.
— Underdogs are 4-3 ATS in last seven Bahamas Bowls.
— Since 2018, C-USA teams are 10-5 ATS when play a MAC opponent.
— UAB (+7) lost this game 41-6 five years ago.
Cure Bowl (Orlando)
Tex-San Antonio vs Troy
Tex-San Antonio (11-2)
— UTSA won its last ten games, scoring 40.6 ppg.
— Roadrunners gave up 37-41 points in their two losses.
— Last four games, UTSA is +10 in turnovers.
— Roadrunners ran ball for 209+ yards in five of last six games.
— UTSA has 8 starters back on offense, 5 on defense.
— Roadrunners have 121 returning starts on offensive line.
— UTSA has senior QB with 28 career starts.
— Roadrunners are 30-9 SU under Traylor (26-46 from 2014-19).
— Under Traylor, UTSA is 9-3 ATS as an underdog (1-1 TY).
— Under is 5-3 in their last eight games.
— UTSA is 0-3 SU in bowls (2-1 ATS), losing 31-24/38-24 last two years.
Troy (11-2)
— Trojans also won their last ten games, giving up 15.1 ppg.
— Troy gave up 28-32 points in losses at Ole Miss, App State.
— Troy scored 34-48-45 points in its last three games.
— Trojans have 8 starters back on offense, 10 on defense.
— Troy has 94 returning starts on offensive line.
— Troy’s QB has 8 career starts- he used to play at Missouri.
— Trojans are 5-2 ATS as a favorite this season.
— Trojans’ last three games went over the total.
— Troy won its last four bowl games, scoring 42 ppg.
— Their last bowl, however, was back in 2018.
— Underdogs covered this bowl five of last six years.
— Sun Belt teams are 3-4 SU in this bowl.
— Last two years, Sun Belt teams are 8-6 ATS vs C-USA teams.
December 17
Fenway Bowl (Boston)
Cincinnati vs Louisville
Cincinnati (9-3)
— Bearcats won nine of their last 11 games SU.
— Cincy is 2-5-1 ATS as a favorite this season.
— Bearcats ran ball for 235 yards last game, only 3rd time this year.
— Cincy is 7-0 when it scores 27+ points, 2-3 when they don’t.
— 8 starters back on offense; 5 on defense; 107 starts back on OL
— junior QB started 11 games at Eastern Michigan LY; he was backup here in ’19/’20.
— Last 4+ years, Bearcats are 53-10 SU
— Cincy is 2-3 SU last five bowls, losing 24-21/27-6 last two years.
— Six of Bearcats’ last eight games stayed under the total.
— Cincinnati is 10-6 ATS last 16 non-conference games.
— Five of their last seven games were decided by 4 or less points.
Louisville (7-5)
— Louisville lost two of its last three games, scoring 18 ppg.
— Cardinals are 7-0 giving up 21 or less points, 0-5 allowing 26+ points.
— Louisville is +13 in turnovers in its wins, minus-4 in losses.
— Cardinals are +9 in turnovers TY (minus-23 previous four years)
— 7 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 116 starts back on offensive line; senior QB has 38 starts
— Louisville is 8-12-1 ATS last 21 games as an underdog (3-3 TY).
— Cardinals are 8-5-1 ATS last 14 non-conference games.
— Louisville lost three of its last four bowl games SU.
— Five of their last six games stayed under the total.
Louisville coach Satterfield quit last week to take the Cincinnati job, making this an unusual bowl games, with two interim coaches in charge.
— This is the first-ever Fenway Bowl; game was cancelled last two years.
— ACC teams are 21-11 SU last 32 games vs AAC squads.
— Last two years, ACC teams are 7-1 ATS vs AAC opponents.
New Mexico Bowl
SMU vs BYU
SMU (7-5)
— SMU won four of last five games, scoring 44.2 ppg.
— SMU gained 511.4 yards/game in those five games.
— Mustangs allowed 439+ TY in three of last four games.
— 6 starters back on offense; 7 on defense
— 74 starts back on OL; junior QB has 12 starts
— SMU is 9-6 ATS last fifteen games as a favorite.
— SMU is 10-5 ATS in last 15 non-conference games (1-2 TY).
— Mustangs lost last two bowl games, 51-10/52-28.
— SMU’s bowl game LY was PPD; they last played in a bowl in ’19.
— QB Mordecai has completed 64.3% of passes, with 31 TD’s, 9 INTs.
BYU (7-5)
— BYU won its last three games, scoring 31-52-35 points.
— Cougars are 2-7 ATS in their last nine lined games.
— BYU is 6-0 giving up 26 or less points, 1-5 allowing 27+.
— Cougars are 11-6 ATS last 17 games as an underdog.
— BYU has 8 starters back on offense, 11 on defense.
— BYU has 90 returning starts on the offensive line.
— BYU has junior QB with 10 starts.
— BYU ran ball for 220+ yards three of last four games.
— Cougars’ last three games went over the total.
— Cougars are 3-2 SU last five bowls (were favored in all five)
— Last six years, underdogs are 4-2 ATS in this bowl.
— Average total in this bowl last five years, 56.0.
Jimmy Kimmel LA Bowl (Los Angeles)
Washington State vs Fresno State
Washington State (7-5)
— Coogs won three of last four games, scoring 36 ppg.
— Coogs ran for 63.6 ypg in losses, 145.7 in wins.
— Wazzu is 7-0 giving up 20 or less points; 0-5 if allow more than 20.
— Coogs are 5-0 ATS as a favorite this season.
— Coogs are 7-10-1 ATS in last 18 non-conference games (2-0 TY).
— 4 starters back on offense, 6 on defense
— 31 starts back on offensive line; new QB was I-AA All-American at Incarnate Word
— Coogs lost four of last five bowl games (0-5 ATS)
— Under is 8-3 in Wazzu’s I-A games this year.
Fresno State (9-4)
— Fresno won its last eight games, after a 1-4 start.
— Last seven games, Fresno scored 37.7 ppg.
— Bulldogs are 8-1 if they score more than 20 points.
— 8 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 80 starts back on offensive line; senior QB has 19 starts
— Fresno is 12-5 ATS last 17 games as an underdog (2-3 TY).
— Bulldogs are 13-8-1 ATS in last 22 non-conference games (0-3 TY).
— Bulldogs were held to 297-245 TY in last two games.
— Last three games, Fresno State is +7 in turnovers.
— Five of their last six games went over the total.
— Fresno won its last three bowls, scoring 33-31-31 points.
— Coach Tedford has a 7-3 record in bowl games.
— Utah State (+7) upset Oregon State 24-13 in first LA Bowl LY.
— Mountain West teams are 1-7 SU/2-6 ATS vs Pac-12 teams TY.
— From 2017-21, MW teams were 25-16 ATS vs Pac-12 opponents.
LendingTree Bowl (Mobile, AL)
Rice vs Southern Mississippi
Rice (5-7)
— Rice lost its last three games, giving up 35.7 ppg.
— Owls are 5-0 if they score 28+ points, 0-7 if they score less.
— Six of their last nine games were decided by 7 or fewer points.
— 7 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 92 starts back on offensive line; 3 backups QB’s from LY return
— Last 4+ years, Owls are 16-38 SU (5-7 this year)
— Last four years, they’re 2-9 ATS as favorites, 22-19 as an underdog
— This is Rice’s first bowl game since 2014.
— Owls did win three of last four bowls.
— Their last three games stayed under the total.
Southern Miss (6-6)
— Southern Miss lost three of last four games SU.
— USM is 6-0 allowing 24 or less points, 0-6 giving up 26+points.
— Golden Eagles are 4-2 ATS last six games as a favorite.
— Southern Miss has 9 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
— Eagles have 71 returning starts on offensive line.
— Southern Miss is 3-0 ATS TY in non-conference games.
— 2019-21, Golden Eagles were 3-10 ATS in non-conference games.
— USM is 1-3 SU/ATS in last four bowls (favorites 4-0 ATS)
— Golden Eagles’ last bowl was in 2019.
— Four of last five Southern Miss games went over the total.
— Until this year, Rice/Southern Miss were conference rivals in C-USA.
— Rice beat USM last two seasons, 30-6/24-19.
— Sun Belt teams won their last six appearances in this bowl.
— Underdogs are 3-2 ATS in last five LendingTree Bowls.
— Last two years, Sun Belt teams are 8-6 ATS vs C-USA opponents.
Las Vegas Bowl
Florida vs Oregon State
Florida (6-6)
— Florida is 6-1 giving up less than 30 points, 0-5 if they allow 30+.
— Gators are 1-4 SU away from home TY (won 41-24 at Texas A&M)
— Underdogs covered 10 of their 12 games TY.
— Since 2018, Florida is 9-1 ATS as an underdog.
— 6 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 98 starts back on offensive line (4 starters); soph QB has 1 start
— Gators gained 445+ total yards in each of last four games.
— Florida is 4-9-1 ATS in last 14 non-conference games (2-1 TY).
— Gators lost last two bowls, 55-20/29-17.
— In his career, Napier is 2-1 SU in bowls.
— Over is 4-2 in Florida’s last six games.
Oregon State (9-3)
— Oregon State won six of last seven games, scoring 31.7 ppg.
— OSU was held to 14-16-21 points in losses to USC/Utah/Washington.
— Beavers are 9-0 when they score 24+ points.
— Beavers are 7-1 ATS as a favorite this season.
— Oregon State is 8-4 ATS in last 12 non-conference games.
— 6 starters back on offense, 9 on defense
— 76 starts back on offensive line; junior QB has 15 starts
— Beavers ran ball for 200+ yards in four of last six games.
— Oregon State lost three of last four bowls SU (favored in all four).
— Over is 5-3 in their last eight games overall.
— Favorites are 6-2 ATS in last eight Las Vegas Bowls.
— Since 2015, SEC teams are 10-6 ATS vs Pac-12 squads (0-3 TY).
— Since 2011, SEC underdogs are 5-4 ATS vs Pac-12 squads.
Frisco Bowl (Frisco, TX)
North Texas vs Boise State
North Texas (7-6)
— Mean Green is 5-3 SU in their last eight games.
— Last three games, North Texas was held to 21-21-27 points.
— UNT is 7-0 giving up 28 or less points, 0-6 allowing 31+.
— 8 starters back on offense, 5 on defense
— 106 starts back on offensive line; junior QB has 12 starts
— UNT is 10-7 ATS in last 17 games as an underdog./
— Mean Green allowed 432+ TY in nine of last 12 games.
— UNT is 6-9 ATS in last 15 non-conference games (1-2 TY)
— Mean Green is bowling for sixth time in seven years,
— North Texas lost its last five bowls (1-4 ATS) giving up 44.6 ppg.
— Over is 7-3 in their last ten games.
Boise State (9-4)
— Boise is 7-2 since changing OC’s, scoring 32.2 ppg.
— New OC Dirk Koetter was once head coach of the NFL’s Bucs.
— Boise is 8-1 when it scores 20+ points.
— Broncos ran ball for 248 ypg three of last four games.
— Boise has 8 starters back on offense, 9 on defense
— 86 starts back on offensive line; junior QB has 25 starts
— Boise is 26-19-1 ATS in last 46 games as a favorite.
— Broncos held six of last nine opponents under 275 TY.
— Boise is 5-8 ATS in last 13 non-conference games.
— Boise lost two of last three bowl games.
— Broncos also had bowl games cancelled in 2018/2021.
— Three of their last four games overall stayed under total.
— Favorites are 5-2 ATS in this bowl.
— Winning side scored 38+ points in six of seven Frisco Bowls.
— Mountain West teams are 10-8 SU last 18 games vs C-USA.
— Since 2011, C-USA underdogs are 17-12 ATS vs Mountain West teams.
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College Football Bowl Trends
Bruce Marshall
Friday, December 16
Bahamas Bowl Trends
Miami-Ohio vs. UAB (ESPN, 11:30 a.m. ET)
RedHawks have covered last four bowl games dating to 2010, including last year vs. UNT.
Under Bill Clark, Blazers covered their last three bowl visits.
Miami an unremarkable 11-14 vs. spread past two seasons, 6-5 as dog that span.
UAB disappointing this season post-Clark, dropping 6 of last 7 vs. spread.
Tech Play: Miami-Ohio
Cure Bowl Trends
Troy vs. UTSA (ESPN, 3:00 p.m. ET)
Trojans haven’t been bowling since 2018, while UTSA has lost bowls the past two years (1-1 vs. spread), and winless SU all-time in bowls (0-3).
Troy a spread force this season for Jon Sumrall, covering 9 of last 11 vs. line.
Also, Roadrunners have covered four of last five.
Troy “over” last three this season after “under” previous five, UTSA “over” last two.
Tech Play: Troy & Over
Saturday, December 17
Fenway Bowl Trends
Louisville vs. Cincinnati (ESPN, 11:30 a.m. ET)
Interesting Scott Satterfield dynamics!
Cards 1-1 SU and vs. line in bowls since 2019, also 2-4 vs. spread last six bowls in Petrino and Satterfield regimes.
Fickell has moved from Cincy, but under him Bearcats were 2-2 SU and vs. line in bowls (including playoff game vs. Bama LY).
Bearcats underachieving 3-8 vs. spread in 2022, 6-13 vs. spread last 19 overall since mid 2021.
Note Cards “under” 5-1 last six this season.
Tech Play: Louisville & Under
Las Vegas Bowl Trends
Florida vs. Oregon State (ESPN, 2:30 p.m. ET)
Gators have failed to cover bowl games each of the past three seasons.
Beavers haven’t won or covered a bowl game since 2013 (last year LA Bowl loss to Utah State was first postseason game since).
Billy Napier did cover four of last five this season, and Florida was 5-0 as dog in 2022.
Napier won last three bowls with Ragin’ Cajuns but was only 1-3 vs. spread in bowls with ULL.
OSU 10-2 vs. spread this season, 7-2 vs. points last nine against non-Pac 12 foes.
Tech Play: Oregon State
LA Bowl Trends
Washington State vs. Fresno State (ABC, 3:30 p.m. ET)
Jeff Tedford won and covered both of his bowls for Bulldogs in 2017-18, before Fresno won but didn’t cover New Mexico Bowl vs. UTEP last year.
Meanwhile, Cougs now 1-4 SU, 0-5 vs. spread last five bowls dating back to the Mike Leach era.
Lost and failed to cover for Dickert last season in Sun vs. CMU.
Fresno closed season with 8 SU wins in a row, 6-2 vs. line in those, and covers in last three.
WSU on 16-6 spread run since early 2021, also on 10-3 “under” run.
Tech Play: Fresno State & Under
Lending Tree Bowl Trends
Rice vs. Southern Miss (ESPN, 5:45 p.m. ET)
Owls bowling for first time since 2014, Golden Eagles first time since 2019.
Prior to 2002 this was a Conference USA matchup, with Rice winning and covering each of the past two seasons.
Owls 5-2 last seven as underdogs this season.
USM 7-1 vs. spread last eight away from Hattiesburg, also 12-3 overall vs. spread since late 2021.
Note Rice was on a 12-1 “over” run stretching to late 2021 before landing “under” in final three games this season.
Golden Eagles “over” 9-5 since late 2021.
Tech Play: Southern Miss & Over
New Mexico Bowl Trends
SMU vs. BYU (ABC, 7:30 p.m. ET)
Cougs 3-2 SU, 2-3 vs. line in bowls for Kalani Stake.
Mustangs bowling for first time since 2019, when routed by host FAU in Boca Raton Bowl.
BYU on 4-11 spread skid since late 2021, also on 10-4 “over” run.
Rhett Lashlee just 5-7 vs. spread in SMU debut season.
Tech Play: Over
Frisco Bowl Trends
North Texas vs. Boise State (ESPN, 9:15 p.m. ET)
Broncos first bowl since 2019, though had to back out of Arizona Bowl LY.
Boise also had a bowl cancelled in 2018 against BC.
Mean Green 1-4 SU and 2-3 vs. spread last five bowls (those with HC Seth Littrell, just dismissed prior to this bowl game).
Broncos only 2-4-1 vs. spread last seven away from blue carpet, also 0-4 vs. spread this season outside of Mountain West.
Mean Green on 13-7 spread uptick since mid 2021.
Tech Play: North Texas
Monday, December 19
Myrtle Beach Bowl Trends
Marshall vs. UConn (ESPN, 2:30 p.m. ET)
Huskies bowling first time since 2015, while Herd no wins or covers last three years in bowls.
Jim Mora 9-3 vs. spread this season (6-3 as dog)/
UConn on 15-6 spread uptick since early 2021.
Marshall 15-6 “under” since early 2021.
Tech Play: UConn & Under
Bruce Marshall
Friday, December 16
Bahamas Bowl Trends
Miami-Ohio vs. UAB (ESPN, 11:30 a.m. ET)
RedHawks have covered last four bowl games dating to 2010, including last year vs. UNT.
Under Bill Clark, Blazers covered their last three bowl visits.
Miami an unremarkable 11-14 vs. spread past two seasons, 6-5 as dog that span.
UAB disappointing this season post-Clark, dropping 6 of last 7 vs. spread.
Tech Play: Miami-Ohio
Cure Bowl Trends
Troy vs. UTSA (ESPN, 3:00 p.m. ET)
Trojans haven’t been bowling since 2018, while UTSA has lost bowls the past two years (1-1 vs. spread), and winless SU all-time in bowls (0-3).
Troy a spread force this season for Jon Sumrall, covering 9 of last 11 vs. line.
Also, Roadrunners have covered four of last five.
Troy “over” last three this season after “under” previous five, UTSA “over” last two.
Tech Play: Troy & Over
Saturday, December 17
Fenway Bowl Trends
Louisville vs. Cincinnati (ESPN, 11:30 a.m. ET)
Interesting Scott Satterfield dynamics!
Cards 1-1 SU and vs. line in bowls since 2019, also 2-4 vs. spread last six bowls in Petrino and Satterfield regimes.
Fickell has moved from Cincy, but under him Bearcats were 2-2 SU and vs. line in bowls (including playoff game vs. Bama LY).
Bearcats underachieving 3-8 vs. spread in 2022, 6-13 vs. spread last 19 overall since mid 2021.
Note Cards “under” 5-1 last six this season.
Tech Play: Louisville & Under
Las Vegas Bowl Trends
Florida vs. Oregon State (ESPN, 2:30 p.m. ET)
Gators have failed to cover bowl games each of the past three seasons.
Beavers haven’t won or covered a bowl game since 2013 (last year LA Bowl loss to Utah State was first postseason game since).
Billy Napier did cover four of last five this season, and Florida was 5-0 as dog in 2022.
Napier won last three bowls with Ragin’ Cajuns but was only 1-3 vs. spread in bowls with ULL.
OSU 10-2 vs. spread this season, 7-2 vs. points last nine against non-Pac 12 foes.
Tech Play: Oregon State
LA Bowl Trends
Washington State vs. Fresno State (ABC, 3:30 p.m. ET)
Jeff Tedford won and covered both of his bowls for Bulldogs in 2017-18, before Fresno won but didn’t cover New Mexico Bowl vs. UTEP last year.
Meanwhile, Cougs now 1-4 SU, 0-5 vs. spread last five bowls dating back to the Mike Leach era.
Lost and failed to cover for Dickert last season in Sun vs. CMU.
Fresno closed season with 8 SU wins in a row, 6-2 vs. line in those, and covers in last three.
WSU on 16-6 spread run since early 2021, also on 10-3 “under” run.
Tech Play: Fresno State & Under
Lending Tree Bowl Trends
Rice vs. Southern Miss (ESPN, 5:45 p.m. ET)
Owls bowling for first time since 2014, Golden Eagles first time since 2019.
Prior to 2002 this was a Conference USA matchup, with Rice winning and covering each of the past two seasons.
Owls 5-2 last seven as underdogs this season.
USM 7-1 vs. spread last eight away from Hattiesburg, also 12-3 overall vs. spread since late 2021.
Note Rice was on a 12-1 “over” run stretching to late 2021 before landing “under” in final three games this season.
Golden Eagles “over” 9-5 since late 2021.
Tech Play: Southern Miss & Over
New Mexico Bowl Trends
SMU vs. BYU (ABC, 7:30 p.m. ET)
Cougs 3-2 SU, 2-3 vs. line in bowls for Kalani Stake.
Mustangs bowling for first time since 2019, when routed by host FAU in Boca Raton Bowl.
BYU on 4-11 spread skid since late 2021, also on 10-4 “over” run.
Rhett Lashlee just 5-7 vs. spread in SMU debut season.
Tech Play: Over
Frisco Bowl Trends
North Texas vs. Boise State (ESPN, 9:15 p.m. ET)
Broncos first bowl since 2019, though had to back out of Arizona Bowl LY.
Boise also had a bowl cancelled in 2018 against BC.
Mean Green 1-4 SU and 2-3 vs. spread last five bowls (those with HC Seth Littrell, just dismissed prior to this bowl game).
Broncos only 2-4-1 vs. spread last seven away from blue carpet, also 0-4 vs. spread this season outside of Mountain West.
Mean Green on 13-7 spread uptick since mid 2021.
Tech Play: North Texas
Monday, December 19
Myrtle Beach Bowl Trends
Marshall vs. UConn (ESPN, 2:30 p.m. ET)
Huskies bowling first time since 2015, while Herd no wins or covers last three years in bowls.
Jim Mora 9-3 vs. spread this season (6-3 as dog)/
UConn on 15-6 spread uptick since early 2021.
Marshall 15-6 “under” since early 2021.
Tech Play: UConn & Under
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NCAAF
Weather Report
Bowl Season
UAB Blazers Betting Analysis
UAB made one of the most curious coaching hires of the offseason when the Blazers tabbed former NFL quarterback Trent Dilfer to be their new head coach. Dilfer has no collegiate coaching experience, as he has been the head coach for Lipscomb Academy in Nashville, Tennessee for the last four years, and he is one of the most prominent names involved in the Elite 11 quarterback camps.
The job had been open since Bill Clark resigned in June due to health issues. Clark literally rebuilt this program from the ground up after it was shuttered, and the players expected interim head coach Bryant Vincent to replace Clark on a permanent basis. The administration’s decision to bring in Dilfer instead has reportedly created a rift in the program, especially considering the rumor that five or six more established head coaches turned down the gig.
UAB runs the ball very well with First Team All-CUSA selection DeWayne McBride leading the way. McBride ran for 1,713 yards and 19 touchdowns during the regular season, averaging 7.4 YPC. Jermaine Brown Jr. was awesome as his backup, running for 832 yards (5.9 YPC) and six TDs. The offensive line did an excellent job in run blocking with Sidney Wells and Kadeem Telfort both named First Team All-CUSA picks too.
Dylan Hopkins was a more effective signal caller than Jacob Zeno and should get the start in the Bahamas Bowl. Hopkins completed 62.8% of his passes for 1,709 yards (8.9 YPA) with nine touchdowns and three interceptions this season, and he was also a mobile threat. Trea Shropshire is the top receiver on the team with 35 receptions for 740 yards and five TDs.
The Blazers are ranked 55th in Defensive SP+. They have a very good secondary, allowing 6.4 YPA and 202.3 YPG through the air, but the run defense has been a problem. Teams are averaging 4.9 YPC against this front seven. Linebacker Noah Wilder led the Blazers in tackles and was a First Team All-CUSA pick, and cornerback Starling Thomas V had 14 passes defensed and was also a First Team All-CUSA selection.
Miami (OH) RedHawks Betting Analysis
Aveon Smith was the starting quarterback for most of the season after Brett Gabbert was injured in the Week 1 loss to Kentucky. Smith wasn’t nearly as effective as Gabbert, as he completed just 48.9% of his passes for 6.0 YPA with nine touchdowns and five interceptions. Meanwhile, in Gabbert’s four games, he completed 64.3% of his passes for 816 yards (7.1 YPA) with four touchdowns and no interceptions.
Smith is a much bigger mobile threat than Gabbert though. Smith led the RedHawks with 503 rushing yards (5.0 YPC) and six touchdowns. Top running back Keyon Mozee hasn’t played in more than a month though, so Tyre Shelton and Kevin Davis seem likely to split the load in the Bahamas Bowl. Mac Hippenhammer is the top receiver by a mile with 52 receptions for 726 yards and eight touchdowns on the year. Starting guard Caleb Shaffer announced that he was entering the transfer portal, so he won’t be involved in this game.
The RedHawks’ offense ranks 37th in Defensive SP+. Teams are averaging 5.3 yards per play against this unit, and only three teams were able to score more than 24 points against Miami all season long. Second Team All-MAC linebacker Ryan McWood leads the team with 121 tackles and has made a huge impact this season.
Troy Trojans Betting Analysis
Gunnar Watson is the starting quarterback for Troy and had a decent season under center. Watson completed 61.9% of his passes for 2,705 yards with 13 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. He isn’t a mobile threat, leading to Watson being sacked 32 times, but he has been more reliable than West Virginia transfer Jarret Doege.
The ground game has paced the offense with First Team All-SBC offensive linemen Austin Stidham and Jake Andrews paving the way up front. That led to Kimani Vidal eclipsing the 1,000-yard mark thanks to back-to-back 200-yard games against Louisiana-Monroe and Arkansas State to close out the regular season, and D.K. Billingsley had a lot of success too with 656 yards and eight rushing touchdowns on 4.9 YPC. Tez Johnson and RaJae’ Johnson are the leading receivers on the team as Jabre Barber has missed the last two months with a leg injury.
Troy has arguably the best defense in the Group of Five, so it’s no surprise that the Trojans placed four members of this defense on the First Team All-SBC roster including Sun Belt Defensive Player of the Year Carlton Martial. The senior linebacker from Mobile led the team in tackles, and he has recorded at least 100 tackles in four straight seasons.
The Trojans ranked seventh in scoring defense (17.6 PPG) and eighth in yards per play (4.6 YPP). Defensive linemen T.J. Jackson and Will Choloh made this front very difficult to run against and were First Team All-SBC selections, while fellow First Team All-SBC defensive back Reddy Steward led Troy with eight passes defensed and three interceptions.
UTSA Roadrunners Betting Analysis
Frank Harris has been the biggest star for Jeff Traylor during his run with UTSA. Harris has led the Roadrunners to consecutive 11+ win seasons, and he was named Conference USA MVP last week as well as First Team All-CUSA. Harris has announced that he will return for a seventh season in 2023, and he posted his best numbers yet this year. He completed 71.1% of his passes for 3,865 yards (9.0 YPA) with 31 touchdowns and seven interceptions. We saw him showcase his mobility too with 588 rushing yards (4.9 YPC) and nine rushing TDs.
Senior running back Brenden Brady was injured in the regular season finale against UTEP and didn’t play in the Conference USA Championship Game against North Texas. However, his absence wasn’t a big deal as CUSA Freshman of the Year Kevorian Barnes was explosive against the Mean Green. Barnes carried the ball 28 times for 175 yards and a touchdown, and he now leads the Roadrunners in rushing yards on the season.
This passing game was so explosive that receivers Zakhari Franklin, Joshua Cephus, and De’Corian Clark each earned all-conference honors. They combined for 28 touchdown receptions, and Cephus is 15 yards away from eclipsing 1,000 yards alongside Franklin.
UTSA doesn’t have a great defense though. Clifford Chattman and Corey Mayfield Jr. did earn First Team All-CUSA honors, but that was largely due to opponents having to pass while trailing this team. Chattman and Mayfield combined for 26 pass defenses and seven interceptions. They also didn’t have much of a pass rush with just 19 sacks in 13 games despite getting to pin their ears back.
Weather Report
Bowl Season
UAB Blazers Betting Analysis
UAB made one of the most curious coaching hires of the offseason when the Blazers tabbed former NFL quarterback Trent Dilfer to be their new head coach. Dilfer has no collegiate coaching experience, as he has been the head coach for Lipscomb Academy in Nashville, Tennessee for the last four years, and he is one of the most prominent names involved in the Elite 11 quarterback camps.
The job had been open since Bill Clark resigned in June due to health issues. Clark literally rebuilt this program from the ground up after it was shuttered, and the players expected interim head coach Bryant Vincent to replace Clark on a permanent basis. The administration’s decision to bring in Dilfer instead has reportedly created a rift in the program, especially considering the rumor that five or six more established head coaches turned down the gig.
UAB runs the ball very well with First Team All-CUSA selection DeWayne McBride leading the way. McBride ran for 1,713 yards and 19 touchdowns during the regular season, averaging 7.4 YPC. Jermaine Brown Jr. was awesome as his backup, running for 832 yards (5.9 YPC) and six TDs. The offensive line did an excellent job in run blocking with Sidney Wells and Kadeem Telfort both named First Team All-CUSA picks too.
Dylan Hopkins was a more effective signal caller than Jacob Zeno and should get the start in the Bahamas Bowl. Hopkins completed 62.8% of his passes for 1,709 yards (8.9 YPA) with nine touchdowns and three interceptions this season, and he was also a mobile threat. Trea Shropshire is the top receiver on the team with 35 receptions for 740 yards and five TDs.
The Blazers are ranked 55th in Defensive SP+. They have a very good secondary, allowing 6.4 YPA and 202.3 YPG through the air, but the run defense has been a problem. Teams are averaging 4.9 YPC against this front seven. Linebacker Noah Wilder led the Blazers in tackles and was a First Team All-CUSA pick, and cornerback Starling Thomas V had 14 passes defensed and was also a First Team All-CUSA selection.
Miami (OH) RedHawks Betting Analysis
Aveon Smith was the starting quarterback for most of the season after Brett Gabbert was injured in the Week 1 loss to Kentucky. Smith wasn’t nearly as effective as Gabbert, as he completed just 48.9% of his passes for 6.0 YPA with nine touchdowns and five interceptions. Meanwhile, in Gabbert’s four games, he completed 64.3% of his passes for 816 yards (7.1 YPA) with four touchdowns and no interceptions.
Smith is a much bigger mobile threat than Gabbert though. Smith led the RedHawks with 503 rushing yards (5.0 YPC) and six touchdowns. Top running back Keyon Mozee hasn’t played in more than a month though, so Tyre Shelton and Kevin Davis seem likely to split the load in the Bahamas Bowl. Mac Hippenhammer is the top receiver by a mile with 52 receptions for 726 yards and eight touchdowns on the year. Starting guard Caleb Shaffer announced that he was entering the transfer portal, so he won’t be involved in this game.
The RedHawks’ offense ranks 37th in Defensive SP+. Teams are averaging 5.3 yards per play against this unit, and only three teams were able to score more than 24 points against Miami all season long. Second Team All-MAC linebacker Ryan McWood leads the team with 121 tackles and has made a huge impact this season.
Troy Trojans Betting Analysis
Gunnar Watson is the starting quarterback for Troy and had a decent season under center. Watson completed 61.9% of his passes for 2,705 yards with 13 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. He isn’t a mobile threat, leading to Watson being sacked 32 times, but he has been more reliable than West Virginia transfer Jarret Doege.
The ground game has paced the offense with First Team All-SBC offensive linemen Austin Stidham and Jake Andrews paving the way up front. That led to Kimani Vidal eclipsing the 1,000-yard mark thanks to back-to-back 200-yard games against Louisiana-Monroe and Arkansas State to close out the regular season, and D.K. Billingsley had a lot of success too with 656 yards and eight rushing touchdowns on 4.9 YPC. Tez Johnson and RaJae’ Johnson are the leading receivers on the team as Jabre Barber has missed the last two months with a leg injury.
Troy has arguably the best defense in the Group of Five, so it’s no surprise that the Trojans placed four members of this defense on the First Team All-SBC roster including Sun Belt Defensive Player of the Year Carlton Martial. The senior linebacker from Mobile led the team in tackles, and he has recorded at least 100 tackles in four straight seasons.
The Trojans ranked seventh in scoring defense (17.6 PPG) and eighth in yards per play (4.6 YPP). Defensive linemen T.J. Jackson and Will Choloh made this front very difficult to run against and were First Team All-SBC selections, while fellow First Team All-SBC defensive back Reddy Steward led Troy with eight passes defensed and three interceptions.
UTSA Roadrunners Betting Analysis
Frank Harris has been the biggest star for Jeff Traylor during his run with UTSA. Harris has led the Roadrunners to consecutive 11+ win seasons, and he was named Conference USA MVP last week as well as First Team All-CUSA. Harris has announced that he will return for a seventh season in 2023, and he posted his best numbers yet this year. He completed 71.1% of his passes for 3,865 yards (9.0 YPA) with 31 touchdowns and seven interceptions. We saw him showcase his mobility too with 588 rushing yards (4.9 YPC) and nine rushing TDs.
Senior running back Brenden Brady was injured in the regular season finale against UTEP and didn’t play in the Conference USA Championship Game against North Texas. However, his absence wasn’t a big deal as CUSA Freshman of the Year Kevorian Barnes was explosive against the Mean Green. Barnes carried the ball 28 times for 175 yards and a touchdown, and he now leads the Roadrunners in rushing yards on the season.
This passing game was so explosive that receivers Zakhari Franklin, Joshua Cephus, and De’Corian Clark each earned all-conference honors. They combined for 28 touchdown receptions, and Cephus is 15 yards away from eclipsing 1,000 yards alongside Franklin.
UTSA doesn’t have a great defense though. Clifford Chattman and Corey Mayfield Jr. did earn First Team All-CUSA honors, but that was largely due to opponents having to pass while trailing this team. Chattman and Mayfield combined for 26 pass defenses and seven interceptions. They also didn’t have much of a pass rush with just 19 sacks in 13 games despite getting to pin their ears back.
FRIDAY, DECEMBER 16
| M-OH at UAB | 11:30 AM | UAB -11.0 U 45.5 | +500 +500 |
| UTSA at TROY | 03:00 PM | TROY +2.5 U 56.5 | +500 +500 |
2022 COLLEGE BOWL BEST BETS
DATE.............................................. W - L - T................................%%%%............. .......................UNITS
12/16/2022..................................3 - 1 - 0................................75.00%........... .........................+ 9.50
TOTALS.....................................3 - 1 - 0,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,75.00%........... .........................+ 9.50
DATE.............................................. W - L - T................................%%%%............. .......................UNITS
12/16/2022..................................3 - 1 - 0................................75.00%........... .........................+ 9.50
TOTALS.....................................3 - 1 - 0,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,75.00%........... .........................+ 9.50
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Armadillo Sports
— Troy 18, Texas-San Antonio 12:
UTSA led 12-0 with 2:00 left in first half; they never scored again.
Roadrunners had five turnovers, 104 yards in penalties.
Troy has now won its last five bowl games
Underdogs covered Cure Bowl six of last seven years.
— UAB 24, Miami OH 20
UAB drove 70 yards, scored game-winning TD with 1:33 left.
Miami WR was tackled on the 2-yard line as time ran out.
Blazers were 7-12 on third down, Miami 4-14.
UAB outgained Miami 390-272.
— Troy 18, Texas-San Antonio 12:
UTSA led 12-0 with 2:00 left in first half; they never scored again.
Roadrunners had five turnovers, 104 yards in penalties.
Troy has now won its last five bowl games
Underdogs covered Cure Bowl six of last seven years.
— UAB 24, Miami OH 20
UAB drove 70 yards, scored game-winning TD with 1:33 left.
Miami WR was tackled on the 2-yard line as time ran out.
Blazers were 7-12 on third down, Miami 4-14.
UAB outgained Miami 390-272.
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Louisville Cardinals Betting Analysis
Since Malik Cunningham is entering the NFL Draft, Brock Domann will be the starting quarterback for Louisville on Saturday. Domann saw action for the Cardinals over the last three weeks of the season, but he didn’t play well. He completed 66 of 123 passes for 866 yards with three touchdowns and five interceptions on the year.
Unfortunately, the Cardinals won’t have leading receiver Tyler Hudson and second-leading rusher Tiyon Evans either. Ahmari Huggins-Bruce and tight end Marshon Ford will likely be the top targets in the passing game, while Jawhar Jordan should see the bulk of the action on the ground. However, the depth and availability here is a lot better than it is for the Bearcats.
Potential first round cornerback Kei’Trel Clark is leaving school early to take part in the NFL Draft, but the Cardinals will have their other top players from a defense that was ranked 26th in SP+. Linebacker Yasir Abdullah can do it all with eight sacks, four forced fumbles, four passes defensed, and two interceptions. YaYa Diaby can get after the quarterback too, while Momo Sanogo is an excellent linebacker.
Cincinnati Bearcats Betting Analysis
Evan Prater will be the starting quarterback for the Bearcats with Ben Bryant injured. Prater is a third-year sophomore that has been with the program since 2020, but he hasn’t seen much action. He has completed 28 of 51 passes for 340 yards with an interception this season, and he is a dual-threat option that is averaging 5.4 YPC.
Expect a heavy dose of Charles McClelland from Cincinnati in this game. McClelland ran for 834 yards (6.0 YPC) and seven touchdowns this season. There is likely to be a lot of zone read between Prater and McClelland as the top SIX pass catchers from the regular season have either decided to enter the transfer portal or declare for the NFL Draft. McClelland and redshirt freshman Will Pauling are the only two players on the roster that have more than five receptions this season.
Cincinnati typically has one of the best defenses in college football, but that unit could really struggle in the bowl game without Luke Fickell and some talent on this side of the ball. First Team All-AAC cornerback Ja’Quan Sheppard entered the transfer portal a few days ago, joining fellow cornerback J.Q. Hardaway in that endeavor. Defensive end Noah Potter and linebacker Leroy Bowers have put their names in the portal too, Linebacker Ivan Pace Jr. is expected to play though and leads Cincinnati with 119 tackles and eight sacks.
Oregon State Beavers Betting Analysis
While many Power Five programs have several players sitting out of “meaningless” bowl games, Oregon State will have almost its full complement of players for this game. Freshman Ben Gulbranson took over for Chance Nolan at quarterback in early October, and he has done an excellent job with this offense.
Gulbranson is completing 61.9% of his passes for 1,290 yards (7.3 YPA) with eight touchdowns and five interceptions. His pass blocking has been excellent, allowing him to progress through reads while only being sacked 10 times on the year.
Tre’Shaun Harrison is the top receiver in this offense, while Anthony Gould has been the big play threat. Gould’s status for this game is unknown though after missing the last two games due to injury. Meanwhile, starting running back Damien Martinez is expected to play through an injury as he is just 30 yards away from eclipsing the 1,000-yard mark.
Oregon State has a very good defense, ranking 24th in SP+. The Beavers won’t have First Team All-PAC 12 cornerback Rejzohn Wright available for this game due to a thumb injury, but they should be able to contain Florida’s offense pretty easily on Saturday.
First Team All-PAC 12 linebacker Omar Speights had a solid year and led Oregon State in tackles. The only thing the Beavers struggle to do on defense is get to the quarterback with a sack rate of 124th in the nation.
Florida Gators Betting Analysis
NFL Draft experts have been pegging Anthony Richardson as a first-round pick for the last year, so it’s no surprise that Richardson decided to turn pro after a lackluster season in Gainesville.
Richardson was a superb runner, but he completed just 53.8% of his passes and struggled with his decision making. Jalen Kitna was in line to start this game until he was kicked off the team two weeks ago for possessing child pornography, so Ohio State transfer Jack Miller III will be the No. 1 quarterback for the Gators. Miller did not throw a pass for Florida this season, and he threw just 14 passes last year with the Buckeyes.
First Team All-SEC offensive lineman O’Cyrus Torrence decided to skip the bowl game to prepare for the NFL Draft, so he will be unavailable. Receiver Justin Shorter is also going to sit out the bowl game, and that means Ricky Pearsall will be the go-to receiver.
Xzavier Henderson looks set to start once again too after missing the Florida State game with an injury. Trevor Etienne and Montrell Johnson Jr. are in line to split carries as the top two running backs.
The Gators were bad on defense this season. Florida ranked 78th in SP+, so we are sure to see some major changes this offseason. Starting linebacker Ventrell Miller was one of the few bright spots, but he will sit out this game. Safety Tre’Vez Johnson is unable to play due to an injury, and that will affect the depth in an already shallow secondary.
Washington State Betting Analysis
Incarnate Word transfer Cameron Ward proved that he can succeed at the next level in his first season in Pullman. Ward lit up the FCS in 2020 and 2021, and he posted solid numbers for Washington State this season. The third-year sophomore completed 64.1% of his passes for 3,094 yards with 23 touchdowns and eight interceptions.
Ward will be without three of his top four receivers for the LA Bowl. Leading receiver De’Zhaun Stribling and Donovan Ollie entered the transfer portal and have since signed with new teams, while seventh-year senior Renard Bell has called it a career after dealing with injuries for most of the season. The good news is that Nakia Watson and Jaylen Jenkins are still there to carry the load with the ground game, but the depth at receiver is stretched pretty thin.
The same is true in the linebacking corps for the Cougars. First Team All-PAC 12 linebacker Daiyan Henley has opted out of the LA Bowl in order to prepare for the NFL Draft. The next two leading tacklers at linebacker (Francisco Mauigoa and Travion Brown) have decided to enter the transfer portal, leaving this position group with a ton of inexperience ahead of Saturday’s game.
Washington State did rank 18th in Defensive SP+, but the linebackers were a key part of the team’s success, as the secondary is giving up 271.7 YPG through the air this season. Ron Stone and Brennan Jackson were Second Team All-PAC 12 defensive linemen, and they have their work cut out for them if the Cougars are going to stop the Fresno State offense.
Fresno State Betting Analysis
If you haven’t seen First Team All-MWC quarterback Jake Haener play, you are in for a treat. There aren’t many players that show more grit than Haener, as he doesn’t exude athleticism and always seems to play hurt. Haener has led the program to some improbable wins during his time under center in the Valley, and he is a fan favorite alongside Fresno signal callers like Trent Dilfer, David Carr, and Derek Carr.
Haener missed a decent amount of the season due to injury, but he went on to complete 72.6% of his passes for 2,616 yards (8.3 YPA) with 18 touchdowns and three interceptions. He has a First Team All-MWC pass catcher in Jalen Moreno-Cropper who hauled in 80 receptions for 1,051 yards and five touchdowns, and Nikko Remigio is an excellent complementary option. Star running back Jordan Mims earned first team all-conference honors too with 1,161 rushing yards and 16 touchdowns.
The Bulldogs are ranked 44th in Defensive SP+. However, they will have almost all their contributors in the LA Bowl. Defensive back Cale Sanders entered the transfer portal, but First Team All-MWC defensive end David Perales is ready to have a big game after recording 10.5 sacks in the regular season.
Rice Owls Betting Analysis
Freshman A.J. Padgett will be the starting quarterback for Rice in this game. T.J. McMahon was the starter for the Owls for most of the season, but he was injured in Rice’s loss to Western Kentucky last month and hasn’t seen the field since that point. Padgett began the year as the Scout Team QB, but he saw action in Rice’s last two games, and head coach Mike Bloomgren has decided to go with the youngster in the LendingTree Bowl. In losses to UTSA and North Texas, Padgett completed 20 of 40 passes for 339 yards with two touchdowns and an interception.
The good news for Padgett and the Owls is that star receiver Luke McCaffrey is expected to play after missing more than a month due to injury. McCaffrey was the team’s top receiver after transferring in from Nebraska, and he has 51 receptions for 656 yards and six touchdowns on the season. That hurt the effectiveness of Bradley Rozner as teams focused on stopping him in the passing game. Rozner was Rice’s big play threat with 41 catches for 834 yards and nine TDs. Rice threw more interceptions than any other team in college football this season, so keep that in mind on Saturday.
The Owls are the second-worst team taking part in a bowl game per SP+. Rice has the 111th ranked defense in the nation by SP+, as this unit has been unable to stop the run or the pass. They are surrendering 6.2 yards per play (120th in the nation), and the Owls rank dead last nationally in turnover margin.
Southern Miss Golden Eagles Betting Analysis
Frank Gore Jr. is the star for Southern Miss. The son of the future Hall of Fame running back has been solid during his three years in Hattiesburg, and he surpassed 1,000 rushing yards for the first time in 2022. Gore has run for 1,053 yards (5.1 YPC) and seven touchdowns, and he has proven to be a solid passer in certain “Super” formations where he takes the snap.
There isn’t much else of note on this offense for the Golden Eagles. Southern Miss has started four different quarterbacks this season, and head coach Will Hall has stated that junior Trey Lowe will be QB1 in this game. Lowe started the last three games of the season for the Golden Eagles, completing 47 of 86 passes for 632 yards with two touchdowns and an interceptions. Jason Brownlee is the go-to receiver in this offense by a country mile with 52 receptions for 819 yards and seven touchdowns on the year.
Southern Miss has a very good defense. The Golden Eagles rank 40th in Defensive SP+, and they have done an excellent job stopping the run. To make matters worse for Rice, this has been an opportunistic secondary with 16 interceptions on the year. Safety Jay Stanley is someone to watch with four interceptions and three forced fumbles on his way to being named Third Team All-SBC.
BYU Cougars Betting Analysis
Boise State transfer Cade Fennegan looks set to be the starting quarterback for BYU on Saturday with Hall injured. Jacob Conover was the backup all season but decided to transfer to Arizona State a few weeks ago. That clears the way for Fennegan to start, even though interestingly enough, his only previous game action was against BYU when he was with Boise State back in 2020.
It sounds like BYU will have its top two receivers available. Puka Nacua and Keanu Hill have been dealing with injuries throughout the season, but they seem likely to suit up for the New Mexico Bowl this weekend. The Cougars run the ball very well too, averaging 5.3 YPC as a team. Senior running back Christopher Brooks has run for 729 yards and is averaging 6.6 YPC, and he has been excellent in BYU’s last two games.
The Cougars rank 103rd in Defensive SP+. They have struggled against the run and the pass, and they don’t create a lot of havoc plays. To make matters worse, they won’t have linebackers Keenan Pili and Payton Wilgar this week, so that could affect things at the second level. BYU doesn’t have a defensive coordinator either as former Weber State head coach Jay Hill won’t take over on this side of the ball until after the bowl game.
SMU Mustangs Betting Analysis
Tanner Mordecai continued to thrive at SMU this season even after Sonny Dykes left for TCU. Mordecai was one of the best quarterbacks in the AAC, completing 64.3% of his passes for 3,306 yards with 31 touchdowns and nine interceptions. Unfortunately, he won’t have his best weapon in this game though as FIrst Team All-AAC wide receiver Rashee Rice has been ruled out with a broken toe. Jordan Kerley will be the top target and caught 31 passes for 538 yards and five touchdowns.
SMU doesn’t have a great ground game, as the Mustangs largely run the ball to keep defenses honest so that Mordecai can have success through the air. They are averaging just 4.2 YPC, and Tyler Lavine is the leading rusher with 551 yards and nine touchdowns. Justin Osborne was a Second Team All-AAC selection upon the offensive line and will see a lot of runs his way.
The Mustangs have one of the worst defenses in the country. They rank 123rd in Defensive SP+, and they really struggle to stop the run. Opponents are averaging 5.2 YPC and 212.4 YPG on the ground against this front seven despite the presence of two-time Second Team All-AAC defensive lineman Elijah Chatman. We saw Tulane run the ball 42 times for 310 yards and five touchdowns against SMU in their penultimate regular season game, so BYU could have a field day.
North Texas Betting Analysis
The Mean Green have a big play offense with Austin Aune under center. Aune is only completing 56.7% of his passes, but he threw for over 3,300 yards with 32 touchdowns and 13 interceptions this season and averaged 8.7 YPA. The offensive line did an excellent job protecting him as he was only sacked 10 times all season, and Manase Mose was a First Team All-CUSA selection up front.
There wasn’t one receiver that stood out in this offense. Instead, Aune effectively distributed the ball to a half dozen targets that all had their moment in the sun. Jyaire Shorter is the most dangerous receiver on the team though with 22 receptions for 598 yards and 10 touchdowns this season. Ayo Adeyi and Ikaika Ragsdale are the top running backs on the team and combined to run for 1,401 yards and nine touchdowns during the regular season.
North Texas ranks 108th in Defensive SP+. The Mean Green have been bad on third down and have not been good against either the run or the pass. There is some talent on this side of the ball though as leading tackler K.D. Davis and safety Ridge Texada (15 pbu, 3 INT) were First Team All-CUSA selections. Linebacker Mazin Richards led the team with 7.5 sacks and was a Second Team All-CUSA choice.
RB George Holani will lead the Boise State ground game on Saturday versus North Texas.
Boise State Betting Analysis
Taylen Green replaced Hank Bachmeier as Boise State’s starting quarterback after the first four games of the season. The Broncos were 2-2 at the time and the offense was struggling to move the chains, so Avalos decided to roll the dice with the more mobile Green. That ended up working out beautifully for Boise State with Green completing 61.4% of his passes for 1,905 yards (7.7 YPA) with 13 touchdowns and six interceptions. Green was only sacked six times too since he is such a mobile threat, and he has run for 467 yards (6.8 YPC) and eight touchdowns.
Star running back George Holani paces this offense. Holani has run for 1,133 yards (5.3 YPC) and 10 touchdowns, and he is finally healthy again after an injury-plagued 2020 and 2021. Freshman Ashton Jeanty has been a nice change of pace back too. Latrell Caples and Billy Bowens are the top receivers available for the Broncos as Stefan Cobbs will miss this game with an injury.
Boise State has the 28th ranked defense per SP+. The Broncos are allowing just 19.5 PPG and 292.2 YPG, but they haven’t faced many quality passing attacks in the MWC. Safety J.L. Skinner was a First Team All-MWC selection after leading Boise State with four interceptions, yet this unit could have some trouble against a North Texas team that is comfortable airing it out.
Since Malik Cunningham is entering the NFL Draft, Brock Domann will be the starting quarterback for Louisville on Saturday. Domann saw action for the Cardinals over the last three weeks of the season, but he didn’t play well. He completed 66 of 123 passes for 866 yards with three touchdowns and five interceptions on the year.
Unfortunately, the Cardinals won’t have leading receiver Tyler Hudson and second-leading rusher Tiyon Evans either. Ahmari Huggins-Bruce and tight end Marshon Ford will likely be the top targets in the passing game, while Jawhar Jordan should see the bulk of the action on the ground. However, the depth and availability here is a lot better than it is for the Bearcats.
Potential first round cornerback Kei’Trel Clark is leaving school early to take part in the NFL Draft, but the Cardinals will have their other top players from a defense that was ranked 26th in SP+. Linebacker Yasir Abdullah can do it all with eight sacks, four forced fumbles, four passes defensed, and two interceptions. YaYa Diaby can get after the quarterback too, while Momo Sanogo is an excellent linebacker.
Cincinnati Bearcats Betting Analysis
Evan Prater will be the starting quarterback for the Bearcats with Ben Bryant injured. Prater is a third-year sophomore that has been with the program since 2020, but he hasn’t seen much action. He has completed 28 of 51 passes for 340 yards with an interception this season, and he is a dual-threat option that is averaging 5.4 YPC.
Expect a heavy dose of Charles McClelland from Cincinnati in this game. McClelland ran for 834 yards (6.0 YPC) and seven touchdowns this season. There is likely to be a lot of zone read between Prater and McClelland as the top SIX pass catchers from the regular season have either decided to enter the transfer portal or declare for the NFL Draft. McClelland and redshirt freshman Will Pauling are the only two players on the roster that have more than five receptions this season.
Cincinnati typically has one of the best defenses in college football, but that unit could really struggle in the bowl game without Luke Fickell and some talent on this side of the ball. First Team All-AAC cornerback Ja’Quan Sheppard entered the transfer portal a few days ago, joining fellow cornerback J.Q. Hardaway in that endeavor. Defensive end Noah Potter and linebacker Leroy Bowers have put their names in the portal too, Linebacker Ivan Pace Jr. is expected to play though and leads Cincinnati with 119 tackles and eight sacks.
Oregon State Beavers Betting Analysis
While many Power Five programs have several players sitting out of “meaningless” bowl games, Oregon State will have almost its full complement of players for this game. Freshman Ben Gulbranson took over for Chance Nolan at quarterback in early October, and he has done an excellent job with this offense.
Gulbranson is completing 61.9% of his passes for 1,290 yards (7.3 YPA) with eight touchdowns and five interceptions. His pass blocking has been excellent, allowing him to progress through reads while only being sacked 10 times on the year.
Tre’Shaun Harrison is the top receiver in this offense, while Anthony Gould has been the big play threat. Gould’s status for this game is unknown though after missing the last two games due to injury. Meanwhile, starting running back Damien Martinez is expected to play through an injury as he is just 30 yards away from eclipsing the 1,000-yard mark.
Oregon State has a very good defense, ranking 24th in SP+. The Beavers won’t have First Team All-PAC 12 cornerback Rejzohn Wright available for this game due to a thumb injury, but they should be able to contain Florida’s offense pretty easily on Saturday.
First Team All-PAC 12 linebacker Omar Speights had a solid year and led Oregon State in tackles. The only thing the Beavers struggle to do on defense is get to the quarterback with a sack rate of 124th in the nation.
Florida Gators Betting Analysis
NFL Draft experts have been pegging Anthony Richardson as a first-round pick for the last year, so it’s no surprise that Richardson decided to turn pro after a lackluster season in Gainesville.
Richardson was a superb runner, but he completed just 53.8% of his passes and struggled with his decision making. Jalen Kitna was in line to start this game until he was kicked off the team two weeks ago for possessing child pornography, so Ohio State transfer Jack Miller III will be the No. 1 quarterback for the Gators. Miller did not throw a pass for Florida this season, and he threw just 14 passes last year with the Buckeyes.
First Team All-SEC offensive lineman O’Cyrus Torrence decided to skip the bowl game to prepare for the NFL Draft, so he will be unavailable. Receiver Justin Shorter is also going to sit out the bowl game, and that means Ricky Pearsall will be the go-to receiver.
Xzavier Henderson looks set to start once again too after missing the Florida State game with an injury. Trevor Etienne and Montrell Johnson Jr. are in line to split carries as the top two running backs.
The Gators were bad on defense this season. Florida ranked 78th in SP+, so we are sure to see some major changes this offseason. Starting linebacker Ventrell Miller was one of the few bright spots, but he will sit out this game. Safety Tre’Vez Johnson is unable to play due to an injury, and that will affect the depth in an already shallow secondary.
Washington State Betting Analysis
Incarnate Word transfer Cameron Ward proved that he can succeed at the next level in his first season in Pullman. Ward lit up the FCS in 2020 and 2021, and he posted solid numbers for Washington State this season. The third-year sophomore completed 64.1% of his passes for 3,094 yards with 23 touchdowns and eight interceptions.
Ward will be without three of his top four receivers for the LA Bowl. Leading receiver De’Zhaun Stribling and Donovan Ollie entered the transfer portal and have since signed with new teams, while seventh-year senior Renard Bell has called it a career after dealing with injuries for most of the season. The good news is that Nakia Watson and Jaylen Jenkins are still there to carry the load with the ground game, but the depth at receiver is stretched pretty thin.
The same is true in the linebacking corps for the Cougars. First Team All-PAC 12 linebacker Daiyan Henley has opted out of the LA Bowl in order to prepare for the NFL Draft. The next two leading tacklers at linebacker (Francisco Mauigoa and Travion Brown) have decided to enter the transfer portal, leaving this position group with a ton of inexperience ahead of Saturday’s game.
Washington State did rank 18th in Defensive SP+, but the linebackers were a key part of the team’s success, as the secondary is giving up 271.7 YPG through the air this season. Ron Stone and Brennan Jackson were Second Team All-PAC 12 defensive linemen, and they have their work cut out for them if the Cougars are going to stop the Fresno State offense.
Fresno State Betting Analysis
If you haven’t seen First Team All-MWC quarterback Jake Haener play, you are in for a treat. There aren’t many players that show more grit than Haener, as he doesn’t exude athleticism and always seems to play hurt. Haener has led the program to some improbable wins during his time under center in the Valley, and he is a fan favorite alongside Fresno signal callers like Trent Dilfer, David Carr, and Derek Carr.
Haener missed a decent amount of the season due to injury, but he went on to complete 72.6% of his passes for 2,616 yards (8.3 YPA) with 18 touchdowns and three interceptions. He has a First Team All-MWC pass catcher in Jalen Moreno-Cropper who hauled in 80 receptions for 1,051 yards and five touchdowns, and Nikko Remigio is an excellent complementary option. Star running back Jordan Mims earned first team all-conference honors too with 1,161 rushing yards and 16 touchdowns.
The Bulldogs are ranked 44th in Defensive SP+. However, they will have almost all their contributors in the LA Bowl. Defensive back Cale Sanders entered the transfer portal, but First Team All-MWC defensive end David Perales is ready to have a big game after recording 10.5 sacks in the regular season.
Rice Owls Betting Analysis
Freshman A.J. Padgett will be the starting quarterback for Rice in this game. T.J. McMahon was the starter for the Owls for most of the season, but he was injured in Rice’s loss to Western Kentucky last month and hasn’t seen the field since that point. Padgett began the year as the Scout Team QB, but he saw action in Rice’s last two games, and head coach Mike Bloomgren has decided to go with the youngster in the LendingTree Bowl. In losses to UTSA and North Texas, Padgett completed 20 of 40 passes for 339 yards with two touchdowns and an interception.
The good news for Padgett and the Owls is that star receiver Luke McCaffrey is expected to play after missing more than a month due to injury. McCaffrey was the team’s top receiver after transferring in from Nebraska, and he has 51 receptions for 656 yards and six touchdowns on the season. That hurt the effectiveness of Bradley Rozner as teams focused on stopping him in the passing game. Rozner was Rice’s big play threat with 41 catches for 834 yards and nine TDs. Rice threw more interceptions than any other team in college football this season, so keep that in mind on Saturday.
The Owls are the second-worst team taking part in a bowl game per SP+. Rice has the 111th ranked defense in the nation by SP+, as this unit has been unable to stop the run or the pass. They are surrendering 6.2 yards per play (120th in the nation), and the Owls rank dead last nationally in turnover margin.
Southern Miss Golden Eagles Betting Analysis
Frank Gore Jr. is the star for Southern Miss. The son of the future Hall of Fame running back has been solid during his three years in Hattiesburg, and he surpassed 1,000 rushing yards for the first time in 2022. Gore has run for 1,053 yards (5.1 YPC) and seven touchdowns, and he has proven to be a solid passer in certain “Super” formations where he takes the snap.
There isn’t much else of note on this offense for the Golden Eagles. Southern Miss has started four different quarterbacks this season, and head coach Will Hall has stated that junior Trey Lowe will be QB1 in this game. Lowe started the last three games of the season for the Golden Eagles, completing 47 of 86 passes for 632 yards with two touchdowns and an interceptions. Jason Brownlee is the go-to receiver in this offense by a country mile with 52 receptions for 819 yards and seven touchdowns on the year.
Southern Miss has a very good defense. The Golden Eagles rank 40th in Defensive SP+, and they have done an excellent job stopping the run. To make matters worse for Rice, this has been an opportunistic secondary with 16 interceptions on the year. Safety Jay Stanley is someone to watch with four interceptions and three forced fumbles on his way to being named Third Team All-SBC.
BYU Cougars Betting Analysis
Boise State transfer Cade Fennegan looks set to be the starting quarterback for BYU on Saturday with Hall injured. Jacob Conover was the backup all season but decided to transfer to Arizona State a few weeks ago. That clears the way for Fennegan to start, even though interestingly enough, his only previous game action was against BYU when he was with Boise State back in 2020.
It sounds like BYU will have its top two receivers available. Puka Nacua and Keanu Hill have been dealing with injuries throughout the season, but they seem likely to suit up for the New Mexico Bowl this weekend. The Cougars run the ball very well too, averaging 5.3 YPC as a team. Senior running back Christopher Brooks has run for 729 yards and is averaging 6.6 YPC, and he has been excellent in BYU’s last two games.
The Cougars rank 103rd in Defensive SP+. They have struggled against the run and the pass, and they don’t create a lot of havoc plays. To make matters worse, they won’t have linebackers Keenan Pili and Payton Wilgar this week, so that could affect things at the second level. BYU doesn’t have a defensive coordinator either as former Weber State head coach Jay Hill won’t take over on this side of the ball until after the bowl game.
SMU Mustangs Betting Analysis
Tanner Mordecai continued to thrive at SMU this season even after Sonny Dykes left for TCU. Mordecai was one of the best quarterbacks in the AAC, completing 64.3% of his passes for 3,306 yards with 31 touchdowns and nine interceptions. Unfortunately, he won’t have his best weapon in this game though as FIrst Team All-AAC wide receiver Rashee Rice has been ruled out with a broken toe. Jordan Kerley will be the top target and caught 31 passes for 538 yards and five touchdowns.
SMU doesn’t have a great ground game, as the Mustangs largely run the ball to keep defenses honest so that Mordecai can have success through the air. They are averaging just 4.2 YPC, and Tyler Lavine is the leading rusher with 551 yards and nine touchdowns. Justin Osborne was a Second Team All-AAC selection upon the offensive line and will see a lot of runs his way.
The Mustangs have one of the worst defenses in the country. They rank 123rd in Defensive SP+, and they really struggle to stop the run. Opponents are averaging 5.2 YPC and 212.4 YPG on the ground against this front seven despite the presence of two-time Second Team All-AAC defensive lineman Elijah Chatman. We saw Tulane run the ball 42 times for 310 yards and five touchdowns against SMU in their penultimate regular season game, so BYU could have a field day.
North Texas Betting Analysis
The Mean Green have a big play offense with Austin Aune under center. Aune is only completing 56.7% of his passes, but he threw for over 3,300 yards with 32 touchdowns and 13 interceptions this season and averaged 8.7 YPA. The offensive line did an excellent job protecting him as he was only sacked 10 times all season, and Manase Mose was a First Team All-CUSA selection up front.
There wasn’t one receiver that stood out in this offense. Instead, Aune effectively distributed the ball to a half dozen targets that all had their moment in the sun. Jyaire Shorter is the most dangerous receiver on the team though with 22 receptions for 598 yards and 10 touchdowns this season. Ayo Adeyi and Ikaika Ragsdale are the top running backs on the team and combined to run for 1,401 yards and nine touchdowns during the regular season.
North Texas ranks 108th in Defensive SP+. The Mean Green have been bad on third down and have not been good against either the run or the pass. There is some talent on this side of the ball though as leading tackler K.D. Davis and safety Ridge Texada (15 pbu, 3 INT) were First Team All-CUSA selections. Linebacker Mazin Richards led the team with 7.5 sacks and was a Second Team All-CUSA choice.
RB George Holani will lead the Boise State ground game on Saturday versus North Texas.
Boise State Betting Analysis
Taylen Green replaced Hank Bachmeier as Boise State’s starting quarterback after the first four games of the season. The Broncos were 2-2 at the time and the offense was struggling to move the chains, so Avalos decided to roll the dice with the more mobile Green. That ended up working out beautifully for Boise State with Green completing 61.4% of his passes for 1,905 yards (7.7 YPA) with 13 touchdowns and six interceptions. Green was only sacked six times too since he is such a mobile threat, and he has run for 467 yards (6.8 YPC) and eight touchdowns.
Star running back George Holani paces this offense. Holani has run for 1,133 yards (5.3 YPC) and 10 touchdowns, and he is finally healthy again after an injury-plagued 2020 and 2021. Freshman Ashton Jeanty has been a nice change of pace back too. Latrell Caples and Billy Bowens are the top receivers available for the Broncos as Stefan Cobbs will miss this game with an injury.
Boise State has the 28th ranked defense per SP+. The Broncos are allowing just 19.5 PPG and 292.2 YPG, but they haven’t faced many quality passing attacks in the MWC. Safety J.L. Skinner was a First Team All-MWC selection after leading Boise State with four interceptions, yet this unit could have some trouble against a North Texas team that is comfortable airing it out.
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NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up
Bowl Season
December 19
Myrtle Beach Bowl
UConn vs Marshall
Connecticut (6-6)
— UConn won five of its last seven games, after a 1-4 start.
— Huskies are 5-0 giving up 14 or fewer points, 1-6 when giving up 25+.
— Last eight games, UConn is +9 in turnovers.
— UConn has 7 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
— Huskies have 38 returning starts on offensive line.
— UConn has a freshman QB with 8 TD’s, 4 INT’s.
— UConn is 11-7 ATS last 18 games as an underdog.
— Under is 5-2 in Huskies’ last seven games.
— This is UConn’s first bowl since 2015.
— Huskies are 3-3 SU in bowls; their last bowl win was 2009.
— Mora was 2-2 SU in bowls when he coached UCLA.
Marshall (8-4)
— Marshall won last four games, after a 4-4 start.
— Their record is little inflated; they played two I-AA teams.
— Marshall is 7-1 when it scores 23+ points.
— Thundering Herd upset Notre Dame, lost at Bowling Green.
— Marshall ran for 255+ yards in three of last four games.
— Thundering Herd has 5 starters back on offense, 6 on defense.
— Marshall has 36 returning starts on offensive line.
— Thundering Herd has a junior QB with nine starts.
— Marshall is 16-29 ATS last 45 games as a favorite.
— Under is 6-2 in their last eight I-A games.
— Marshall lost last three bowl games, giving up 33.7 ppg.
— Favorite won/covered both Myrtle Beach Bowls.
— You’re reading armadillosports.com
— Average total in the two Myrtle Beach Bowls: 65.5.
December 20
Idaho Potato Bowl
Eastern Michigan vs San Jose State
Eastern Michigan (8-4)
— EMU is 32-10-1 ATS last 43 games as an underdog.
— Eagles won their last three games, scoring 34-31-38 points.
— Eagles gave up 39+ points in three of their four losses.
— Last five games, EMU is +10 in turnovers.
— 8 starters back on offense, 6 on defense
— 123 starts back on offensive line.
— senior QB has 6 starts; one at Missouri, 5 at Troy
— EMU is 2-6 ATS in last eight non-conference games.
— Eagles lost last four bowl games, but covered three of them.
— EMU is 1-4 all-time in bowls; their only bowl win? 1987.
— Four of their last six games stayed under the total.
San Jose State (7-4)
— Spartans split their last six games, after a 4-1 start.
— San Jose is 2-3 in games decided by 8 or fewer points.
— 6 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
— have 59 starts back on offensive line.
— junior QB started 23 games at Hawai’i
— Spartans are 0-4 ATS in last four games as a favorite.
— San Jose is 6-4 ATS in last ten non-conference games.
— This is only 2nd bowl for Spartans since 2015.
— San Jose won four of its last five bowl games SU.
— Under is 6-4 in San Jose’s I-A games this season.
— Favorites covered four of last five Potato Bowls.
— Mountain West teams are 6-3 ATS in their last nine Potato Bowls.
— Last two years, Mountain West teams are 5-2-1 ATS vs MAC squads.
— MAC underdogs are 6-8-1 ATS last 15 tries vs MW teams.
Boca Raton Bowl
Liberty vs Toledo
Liberty (8-4)
— Liberty’s coach Freeze bolted for big $$$ at Auburn.
— Flames lost last three games, giving up 36 ppg.
— Last three games, Liberty allowed 199.3 rushing yards/game.
— Liberty has 7 starters back on offense, 4 on defense.
— Liberty has 104 returning starts on offensive line.
— Flames’ new QB started 39 games at Baylor.
— Under Freeze, Liberty was 34-15 SU.
— Liberty is 10-2 ATS last 12 games as an underdog.
— Liberty is 3-0 SU in bowl games, scoring 23-37-56 points.
Toledo (8-5)
— Toledo split its last six games after a 5-2 start.
— Rockets are minus-15 in turnovers in losses, +7 in wins.
— Rockets are 6-0 when they score 28+ points, 2-5 when they don’t.
— 7 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
— 79 starts back on offensive line; soph QB has 7 starts
— Toledo held four of last five opponents under 300 TY.
— Toledo covered only one of its last six games TY.
— Four of their last five games stayed under the total.
— Toledo lost its last four bowl games, giving up 32.8 ppg.
— They were favored in last three of those bowls.
— Favorites are 5-3 ATS in this bowl.
— MAC teams are 1-3 ATS in this bowl.
— Average total in the 8 Boca Raton Bowls: 69.8.
NCAAF
Bowl Season
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
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Marshall @ Connecticut
Marshall
Marshall is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Marshall's last 9 games
Connecticut
Connecticut is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games
Connecticut is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
Eastern Michigan @ San Jose State
Eastern Michigan
Eastern Michigan is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Eastern Michigan is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
San Jose State
San Jose State is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of San Jose State's last 12 games
Liberty @ Toledo
Liberty
Liberty is 9-4 SU in its last 13 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Liberty's last 6 games
Toledo
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Toledo's last 5 games
Toledo is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games
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Armadillo's Write-Up
Bowl Season
December 19
Myrtle Beach Bowl
UConn vs Marshall
Connecticut (6-6)
— UConn won five of its last seven games, after a 1-4 start.
— Huskies are 5-0 giving up 14 or fewer points, 1-6 when giving up 25+.
— Last eight games, UConn is +9 in turnovers.
— UConn has 7 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
— Huskies have 38 returning starts on offensive line.
— UConn has a freshman QB with 8 TD’s, 4 INT’s.
— UConn is 11-7 ATS last 18 games as an underdog.
— Under is 5-2 in Huskies’ last seven games.
— This is UConn’s first bowl since 2015.
— Huskies are 3-3 SU in bowls; their last bowl win was 2009.
— Mora was 2-2 SU in bowls when he coached UCLA.
Marshall (8-4)
— Marshall won last four games, after a 4-4 start.
— Their record is little inflated; they played two I-AA teams.
— Marshall is 7-1 when it scores 23+ points.
— Thundering Herd upset Notre Dame, lost at Bowling Green.
— Marshall ran for 255+ yards in three of last four games.
— Thundering Herd has 5 starters back on offense, 6 on defense.
— Marshall has 36 returning starts on offensive line.
— Thundering Herd has a junior QB with nine starts.
— Marshall is 16-29 ATS last 45 games as a favorite.
— Under is 6-2 in their last eight I-A games.
— Marshall lost last three bowl games, giving up 33.7 ppg.
— Favorite won/covered both Myrtle Beach Bowls.
— You’re reading armadillosports.com
— Average total in the two Myrtle Beach Bowls: 65.5.
December 20
Idaho Potato Bowl
Eastern Michigan vs San Jose State
Eastern Michigan (8-4)
— EMU is 32-10-1 ATS last 43 games as an underdog.
— Eagles won their last three games, scoring 34-31-38 points.
— Eagles gave up 39+ points in three of their four losses.
— Last five games, EMU is +10 in turnovers.
— 8 starters back on offense, 6 on defense
— 123 starts back on offensive line.
— senior QB has 6 starts; one at Missouri, 5 at Troy
— EMU is 2-6 ATS in last eight non-conference games.
— Eagles lost last four bowl games, but covered three of them.
— EMU is 1-4 all-time in bowls; their only bowl win? 1987.
— Four of their last six games stayed under the total.
San Jose State (7-4)
— Spartans split their last six games, after a 4-1 start.
— San Jose is 2-3 in games decided by 8 or fewer points.
— 6 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
— have 59 starts back on offensive line.
— junior QB started 23 games at Hawai’i
— Spartans are 0-4 ATS in last four games as a favorite.
— San Jose is 6-4 ATS in last ten non-conference games.
— This is only 2nd bowl for Spartans since 2015.
— San Jose won four of its last five bowl games SU.
— Under is 6-4 in San Jose’s I-A games this season.
— Favorites covered four of last five Potato Bowls.
— Mountain West teams are 6-3 ATS in their last nine Potato Bowls.
— Last two years, Mountain West teams are 5-2-1 ATS vs MAC squads.
— MAC underdogs are 6-8-1 ATS last 15 tries vs MW teams.
Boca Raton Bowl
Liberty vs Toledo
Liberty (8-4)
— Liberty’s coach Freeze bolted for big $$$ at Auburn.
— Flames lost last three games, giving up 36 ppg.
— Last three games, Liberty allowed 199.3 rushing yards/game.
— Liberty has 7 starters back on offense, 4 on defense.
— Liberty has 104 returning starts on offensive line.
— Flames’ new QB started 39 games at Baylor.
— Under Freeze, Liberty was 34-15 SU.
— Liberty is 10-2 ATS last 12 games as an underdog.
— Liberty is 3-0 SU in bowl games, scoring 23-37-56 points.
Toledo (8-5)
— Toledo split its last six games after a 5-2 start.
— Rockets are minus-15 in turnovers in losses, +7 in wins.
— Rockets are 6-0 when they score 28+ points, 2-5 when they don’t.
— 7 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
— 79 starts back on offensive line; soph QB has 7 starts
— Toledo held four of last five opponents under 300 TY.
— Toledo covered only one of its last six games TY.
— Four of their last five games stayed under the total.
— Toledo lost its last four bowl games, giving up 32.8 ppg.
— They were favored in last three of those bowls.
— Favorites are 5-3 ATS in this bowl.
— MAC teams are 1-3 ATS in this bowl.
— Average total in the 8 Boca Raton Bowls: 69.8.
NCAAF
Bowl Season
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Marshall @ Connecticut
Marshall
Marshall is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Marshall's last 9 games
Connecticut
Connecticut is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games
Connecticut is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
Eastern Michigan @ San Jose State
Eastern Michigan
Eastern Michigan is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Eastern Michigan is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
San Jose State
San Jose State is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of San Jose State's last 12 games
Liberty @ Toledo
Liberty
Liberty is 9-4 SU in its last 13 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Liberty's last 6 games
Toledo
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Toledo's last 5 games
Toledo is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games
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SATURDAY, DECEMBER 17
| CIN at LOU | 11:00 AM | LOU -2.5 U 38.5 | +500 +500 |
| FLA at ORST | 02:30 PM | FLA +8.0 O 53.0 | +500 +500 |
| WSU at FRES | 03:30 PM | WSU +4.5 O 53.0 | +500 +500 |
| RICE at USM | 05:45 PM | USM -6.5 U 45.5 | +500 +500 |
| SMU at BYU | 07:30 PM | BYU +4.0 O 64.5 | +500 +500 |
| UNT at BSU | 09:15 PM | UNT +11.5 O 62.0 | +500 +500 |
2022 COLLEGE BOWL BEST BETS
DATE....................................... W - L - T................................%%%%............. .......................UNITS
12/17/2022..................................6 - 6 - 0................................50.00%........... ..........................- 3.00
12/16/2022..................................3 - 1 - 0................................75.00%........... .........................+ 9.50
TOTALS......................................9 - 7 - 0,................................56.25%........... .........................+ 6.50
DATE....................................... W - L - T................................%%%%............. .......................UNITS
12/17/2022..................................6 - 6 - 0................................50.00%........... ..........................- 3.00
12/16/2022..................................3 - 1 - 0................................75.00%........... .........................+ 9.50
TOTALS......................................9 - 7 - 0,................................56.25%........... .........................+ 6.50
