NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up
Week 13
13 of the best games Friday/Saturday
Tulane @ Cincinnati
Tulane (9-2)
— Green Wave won six of its last seven games.
— Tulane scored 35.9 ppg in its last seven games.
— Tulane is 5-2 ATS last seven games as a road underdog.
— Green Wave’s losses (27-24 So Miss/38-31 UCF) were both at home.
— 9 starters back on offense; 9 on defense
— 108 starts back on OL; soph QB has 18 starts
— Green Wave is 6-2 ATS TY coming off a win.
— In his career, Fritz is 13-15-1 ATS as a road underdog.
— Last two games, Tulane allowed 468-470 total yards.
— Over is 4-1 in their last five games.
Cincinnati (9-2)
— Bearcats won nine of their last ten games SU.
— Cincy is 17-11-1 ATS last 29 games as a home favorite (1-3 TY).
— Last two games, Bearcats ran ball 81 times for 221 yards (2.7/carry).
— 8 starters back on offense; 5 on defense; 107 starts back on OL
— junior QB started 11 games at Eastern Michigan LY; he was backup here in ’19/’20.
— Last 4+ years, Bearcats are 53-9 SU
— Cincy is 9-11-1 ATS last 19 games coming off a win.
— Cincy is 1-5-1 ATS in AAC games this season.
— Six of Bearcats’ last seven games stayed under the total.
— Four of their last six games were decided by 4 or less points.
— Cincinnati won last four series games (3-1 ATS)
— Green Wave is 1-2 SU/ATS in last three visits to Cincinnati.
— Under is 3-1 in last four meetings.
— AAC home teams are 12-24-1 ATS this season.
Baylor @ Texas
Baylor (6-5)
— Baylor is 6-1 scoring 31+ points, 0-4 when it doesn’t.
— Bears lost last two games, gave up 31 ppg in last three.
— Baylor is 1-5 SU this year when it allows 26+ points.
— Bears are 8-3 ATS last eleven games as a road dog.
— 6 starters back on offense, 6 on defense
— You’re reading armadillosports.com
— 119 starts back on offensive line; soph QB has 2 starts
— Bears are 5-1 ATS last six games coming off a loss.
— Baylor is 23-14 ATS in its last 37 conference games.
— Six of last eight Baylor games went over the total.
Texas (7-4)
— Longhorns split their last four games, after a 5-2 start.
— Texas is 1-3 in games decided by less than 7 points.
— Texas gained 426+ TY in seven of last nine games.
— Under Sarkisian, Longhorns are 7-4 ATS as a home favorite.
— 7 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 72 starts back on offensive line.
— went 32-18 SU with Herman as HC; are 12-11 SU with Sarkisian.
— Texas is 2-4 this year in games decided by 7 or less points.
— Longhorns are 6-10 ATS last 16 games coming off a win.
— Over is 3-1 in their last four games.
— Texas won five of last seven meetings.
— Baylor is 5-2 ATS in last seven visits to Austin.
— Last nine series games stayed under the total.
— Big X home favorites are 13-10 ATS this year.
NC State @ North Carolina
NC State (7-4)
— State lost last two games after starting season 7-2.
— Wolfpack lost last three road games SU, scoring 16.3 ppg.
— State is 6-0 when it scores 21+ points, 1-4 if it doesn’t.
— Wolfpack is 10-15-2 ATS last 27 games as a road underdog.
— 7 starters back on offense, 10 on defense
— 95 starts back on offensive line; junior QB has 20 starts
— State’s only road win: 21-20 (-12) over East Carolina in their opener.
— Wolfpack is 6-3 ATS last nine games coming off a loss.
— Under is 4-1-1 in their last six games.
North Carolina (9-2)
— UNC won six of its last seven games, scoring 33.1 ppg.
— Tar Heels threw for 300+ yards in six of last eight games.
— Tar Heels’ last three games were all decided by 4 or fewer points.
— Carolina is 10-6 ATS last 16 games as a home favorite.
— 5 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
— 104 starts back on offensive line; they have a redshirt freshman QB.
— UNC is 2-11 SU last 13 times they scored less than 34 points (2-2 TY).
— Under is 5-2 in their last seven games.
— Carolina is 7-3 ATS last 10 games coming off a loss.
— NC State won four of last six series games.
— Wolfpack is 4-3 ATS in last seven visits to Chapel Hill.
— Three of last four meetings went over the total.
— ACC home favorites are 17-16-1 ATS this year.
Arkansas @ Missouri
Arkansas (6-5)
— Arkansas is 6-0 scoring 31+ points, 0-5 if they score less than 31.
— Arkansas won two of three true road games (lost 40-17 at Miss St)
— Last 11 years, Hogs are 1-4-1 ATS as a road favorite.
— Arkansas gained 483+ TY in five of its last six games.
— 7 starters back on offense, 4 on defense
— 101 starts back on offensive line; soph QB has 15 starts
— Under Pittman, Razorbacks are 9-6-1 ATS coming off a win.
— Razorbacks are 15-9-1 ATS in last 23 SEC games (4-3 TY).
— Over is 5-2 in their last seven games.
Missouri (5-6)
— Mizzou is 0-5 SU in SEC games if they allow more than 14 points.
— Under Drinkwitz, Tigers are 4-2 ATS as a home underdog.
— 6 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
— 83 starts back on OL (4 starters); senior QB started 27 games at Southern Miss
— Missouri needs this win to be bowl eligible.
— Under Drinkwitz, Missouri is 6-9 ATS coming off a win.
— Mizzou is 4-2 SU at home TY, with both losses by four points.
— Under is 7-2 in their last nine games.
— Tigers held five of last six foes under 300 TY; the other game, Tennessee hung 724 yards on Missouri in a 66-24 debacle.
— Missouri won seven of last nine series games.
— Razorbacks covered once in last four visits to Columbia.
— Under is 7-2 in last nine meetings.
— SEC home underdogs are 13-9-1 ATS this year.
Florida @ Florida State
Florida (6-5)
— Florida is 6-1 giving up less than 30 points, 0-4 if they allow 30+.
— Gators are 1-3 SU away from home TY (won 41-24 at Texas A&M)
— Underdogs covered all four of their road games TY.
— Last five years, Florida is 4-1 ATS as a road underdog.
— 6 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 98 starts back on offensive line (4 starters); soph QB has 1 start
— Gators are 9-5-1 ATS in last 15 games coming off a loss.
— Florida is 7-9 ATS in last sixteen SEC games.
— In his career, Napier is 11-3-1 ATS as a road underdog.
— Over is 3-1 in Florida’s road games this year.
Florida State (8-3)
— Seminoles won last four games, scoring 43.3 ppg.
— FSU is 7-0 scoring 35+ points, 1-3 when they score less.
— 8 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
— 101 starts back on offensive line; junior QB has 13 starts
— Seminoles are 3-1 ATS as a home favorite TY.
— In his career, Norvell is 19-17 ATS as a home favorite.
— Under Norvell, they’re 10-3-1 ATS coming off a win.
— Since 2019, FSU is 19-14 ATS in ACC games.
— Last six games, Seminoles ran ball for 228 yards/game.
— Florida won last three meetings (2-0-1 ATS), scoring 35 ppg.
— Gators are 4-2 ATS in last six visits to Tallahassee.
— Three of last four series games went over the total.
Michigan @ Ohio State
Michigan (11-0)
— Michigan has two wins this year by less than 13 points (Maryland/Illinois).
— Michigan ran ball for 264+ yards in its last four games.
— Last three games, Wolverines allowed 138.3 passing yards/game.
— 9 starters back on offense, 4 on defense
— 85 starts return on offensive line; soph QB has 15 starts
— Under Harbaugh, Wolverines are 5-6 ATS as an underdog.
— Michigan is 5-2-1 ATS in its last eight road games.
— Michigan is 13-7-2 ATS in last 22 games coming off a win.
— Under is 8-2-1 in their games this season.
Ohio State (11-0)
— Buckeyes scored 43+ points in nine of their eleven games.
— 21-10 win over Notre Dame is Ohio State’s closest game this year
— 6 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
— 45 starts return on offensive line; soph QB has 12 starts
— Day is 27-14-1 ATS as a favorite, 7-4 TY.
— Last 10 years, Ohio State is 128-13 SU
— Under Day, Ohio State is 19-13-1 ATS in conference games.
— OSU is 13-7 ATS in last 20 games coming off a win.
— Eight of Buckeyes’ last nine games went over the total.
— Michigan beat Ohio State LY, for first time in last nine years.
— Wolverines are 3-6 ATS in last nine visits to Columbus.
— Last eight meetings went over the total.
— Big 14 home favorites are 12-17-2 ATS this year.
Oregon @ Oregon State
Oregon (9-2)
— Oregon won nine of its last ten games, scoring 34+ in 9 of 10.
— Ducks gave up 49-37 points in their two losses.
— Last six games, Ducks are +7 in turnovers.
— 8 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 86 starts back on offensive line; senior QB had 34 starts at Auburn
— Ducks are 10-6 ATS last 16 games as a road favorite (3-1 TY).
— Oregon is 6-2 ATS in Pac-12 tilts this season.
— Oregon is 17-14-2 ATS last 33 games coming off a win.
— Oregon’s last three games stayed under the total.
Oregon State (8-3)
— Oregon State won five of last six games, scoring 30.6 ppg.
— OSU was held to 14-16-21 points in losses to USC/Utah/Washington.
— Beavers are 8-0 when they score 24+ points.
— Beavers are 5-1 ATS last six games as a home underdog.
— Last 3+ years, Oregon State is 21-11-1 ATS in Pac-12 games.
— 6 starters back on offense, 9 on defense
— 76 starts back on offensive line; junior QB has 15 starts
— Beavers are 13-3 ATS last 16 games coming off a win.
— Oregon State held three of last four foes under 300 TY.
— Oregon won 12 of last 14 meetings.
— Ducks are 6-2 ATS in last eight visits to Corvallis.
— Over is 14-4 in last 18 series games.
— Pac-12 home underdogs are 9-12 ATS this year.
Minnesota @ Wisconsin
Minnesota (7-4)
— Minnesota won three of last four games, giving up 0-13-3-13 points.
— Gophers are 0-3 when they give up 20+ points.
— Gophers are 6-1 when they run for 200+ yards, 1-3 if they do not.
— 6 starters back on offense, 6 on defense
— 64 starts return on offensive line; senior QB has 39 starts
— In his career, Fleck is 19-12-1 ATS as a road underdog.
— Gophers are 4-2 ATS in last six games as a road underdog.
— Under is 6-2 in their last eight games.
— Gophers are 11-7 ATS in last 18 games coming off a loss.
Wisconsin (6-5)
— Badgers won three of last four games SU.
— Last three games, Wisconsin ran ball for 188 yards/game.
— Wisconsin is 1-4 when it allows 20+ points.
— Badgers are 5-8 ATS in last 13 games coming off a win.
— Badgers are 12-17 ATS last 29 games as a home favorite.
— 5 starters back on offense, 3 on defense
— 57 starts return on offensive line; soph QB has 20 starts
— Wisconsin was held under 300 TY in last four losses.
— Badgers’ last three games stayed under the total.
— Teams split last four meetings, after Wisconsin won 14 in a row.
— Gophers are 3-0-1 ATS in last four visits to Madison.
— Four of last five series games stayed under the total.
— Big 14 home favorites are 13-10 ATS.
Iowa State @ TCU
Iowa State (4-7)
— Iowa State lost 7 of last 8 games, after a 3-0 start.
— Cyclones are 1-6 in games decided by 7 or less points.
— In their wins, Cyclones allowed 10-7-10-14 points.
— 5 starters back on offense, 3 on defense
— 66 starts back on offensive line.
— Iowa State’s last seven games stayed under the total.
— Iowa State is 9-4-1 ATS last 14 games as a road underdog.
— Under Campbell, they’re 22-13-1 ATS coming off a loss.
— Under Campbell, Cyclones are 34-27-2 ATS in conference games.
TCU (11-0)
— TCU scored 34+ points in 9 of 11 games this season.
— TCU gave up 501 TY in 29-28 win at Baylor LW.
— TCU is 8-21-2 ATS last 31 games as home favorites (2-1 TY).
— Dykes is 23-18 ATS as a home favorite.
— 10 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
— 113 starts back on offensive line; junior QB has 29 starts
— Horned Frogs gained 400+ TY in 10 of their 11 games.
— In his career, Dykes is 82-63 SU; this is his 4th HC job.
— Last three TCU games stayed under the total.
— TCU won last three series games, scoring 44.7 ppg.
— Cyclones are 3-1-1 ATS in last five visits to Fort Worth.
— Last three meetings went over the total.
— Big 14 home favorites are 13-10 ATS.
LSU @ Texas A&M
LSU (9-2)
— Tigers won their last five games, scoring 35.2 ppg.
— LSU is 7-0 when it scores more than 23 points.
— LSU held last two opponents to 249-259 TY.
— Tigers are 2-2 SU when they score less than 31 points.
— LSU is 6-6 ATS in last 12 games as a road favorite.
— 6 starters back on offense, 5 on defense
— 41 starts back on offensive line; QB started 29 games at Arizona State
— In his career, Kelly is 29-26-2 ATS as a road favorite.
— LSU is 11-9 ATS in last 20 games coming off a win.
— Four of last five LSU games went over the total.
Texas A&M (4-7)
— Aggies lost six of their last seven games.
— A&M is 1-5 in games decided by 6 or less points.
— A&M is 0-5 when it allows more than 21 points.
— Last four games, Aggies gave up 266 rushing yards/game.
— 6 starters back on offense, 5 on defense
— 37 starts back on offensive line; soph QB started 14 games at LSU.
— Aggies are 3-1-1 ATS last five games as a home underdog.
— Under Fisher, A&M is 20-18-1 ATS in SEC games.
— Under Fisher, A&M is 10-8-1 ATS coming off a loss.
— Under is 6-4 in their I-A games.
— LSU won nine of last 11 series games.
— Tigers covered their last five visits to College Station.
— Four of last six meetings went over the total.
— SEC hope underdogs are 13-9-1 ATS this season.
Notre Dame @ USC
Notre Dame (8-3)
— Notre Dame won eight of last nine games, after an 0-2 start.
— Irish are 8-0 if they score 24+ points, 0-3 if they score less than 24.
— Notre Dame 7 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
— Notre Dame has 83 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Notre Dame has freshman backup QB; this is his 6th start.
— Since 2017, Notre Dame is 3-0 ATS as a road underdog.
— Last four games, Notre Dame is +6 in turnovers.
— Last 3+ years, Notre Dame is 26-12 ATS coming off a win.
— Their last five games went over the total.
USC (10-1)
— USC won its last four games, scoring 47.3 ppg.
— Trojans scored 41+ points in nine of their eleven games.
— USC has a +20 turnover margin this season.
— Last five games, USC gave up 35.2 ppg.
— 8 starters back on offense, 3 on defense
— 109 starts back on offensive line; soph QB started 7 games at Oklahoma
— Trojans are 4-2 ATS this year as a home favorite.
— In his career, Riley is 22-15 ATS as a home favorite.
— Since 2017, USC is 17-24 ATS in games coming off a win.
— USC is 4-1 ATS in last five non-conference games.
— Over is 6-1 in Trojans’ last seven games.
— Notre Dame won last four series games, scoring 33.5 ppg.
— Notre Dame is 2-7 ATS in last nine visits to USC.
— Last four meetings stayed under the total.
— This is first time since 2016 USC is favored in this series.
Oklahoma @ Texas Tech
Oklahoma (6-5)
— Oklahoma lost two of last three games, with losses both by 2 points.
— Sooners allowed 200+ rushing yards in five of last eight games.
— Oklahoma held three of last four foes to 23 or less points.
— Sooners are 8-13-1 ATS in last 22 games as a road favorite.
— Oklahoma is 2-6 ATS in conference games this year.
— 5 starters back on offense, 5 on defense
— 125 starts back on offensive line; soph QB had 25 starts at UCF
— Last three games, Oklahoma gained average of 453 yards/game.
— Sooners are 7-8 ATS last 15 games coming off a win.
— Three of their last four games stayed under the total.
Texas Tech (6-5)
— Red Raiders won last two games, are now bowl eligible.
— Texas Tech is 5-0 scoring 33+ points, 1-5 if they score less than 33.
— Tech is 1-3 SU if it gains less than 468 yards.
— 6 starters back on offense, 6 on defense
— 124 starts back on offensive line; junior QB had 11 starts at Oregon
— Tech is 6-4 ATS in last 10 games as a home underdog.
— Red Raiders allowed 422+ TY in seven of last eight games.
— Last four games, Texas Tech is minus-4 in turnovers.
— Over is 5-3 in their last eight games.
— Oklahoma won last ten meetings (7-3 ATS)
— Sooners are 2-5 ATS in last seven visits to Lubbock.
— Last 11 series games went over the total.
— Big X home underdogs are 9-6-2 ATS this year.
Washington @ Washington State
Washington (9-2)
— Washington won its last five games, scoring 38.4 ppg.
— Huskies gained 458+ TY in nine of 11 games.
— 398 yards vs Oregon State is least they’ve gained this year.
— 8 starters back on offense, 5 on defense
— 82 starts back on offensive line; junior QB started 17 games at Indiana
— Since 2020, Huskies are 0-5 ATS as a road favorite.
— In his career, DeBoer is 5-5 ATS as a road favorite.
— Last 4+ years, they’re 13-27 ATS in conference games (3-5 TY).
— Three of their last four games stayed under.
Washington State (7-4)
— Coogs won their last three games, scoring 37 ppg.
— Coogs ran for 65.5 ypg in losses, 145.7 in wins.
— Wazzu is 7-0 giving up 20 or less points; 0-4 if allow more than 20.
— Coogs are 5-1 ATS last six games as a home underdog.
— Coogs are 13-3-1 ATS in last 17 Pac-12 games.
— 4 starters back on offense, 6 on defense
— 31 starts back on offensive line; new QB was I-AA All-American at Incarnate Word
— Wazzu is 9-3-1 ATS in last 12 games coming off a win.
— Under is 8-2 in Wazzu’s last ten games.
— Washington won 10 of last 12 series games.
— Huskies covered four of last five visits to Pullman.
— Under is 5-3 in last eight Apple Cup games.
— Pac-12 home underdogs are 9-11 ATS this season.
