- Sep 10, 2018
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Armadillo's Write-Up
Week 12
Thursday night
SMU @ Tulane
SMU (6-4)
— SMU won its last three games, scoring 45-77-41 points.
— SMU gained 554.3 yards/game in those wins.
— Mustangs are also +5 in turnovers in those games.
— 6 starters back on offense; 7 on defense
— 74 starts back on OL; junior QB has 12 starts
— SMU is 1-4 ATS last five games as a road underdog.
— SMU is 12-16 ATS in last 28 conference games (3-2 TY).
— Three of their last four games went over total.
— QB Mordecai has completed 63.3% of passes, with 27 TD’s, 7 INTs.
Tulane (8-2)
— Green Wave had its 5-game win streak snapped by UCF last week.
— Tulane scored 32 ppg in its last six games.
— Tulane is 13-3 ATS last 16 games as a home favorite.
— Green Wave’s losses (27-24 So Miss/38-31 UCF) were both at home.
— 9 starters back on offense; 9 on defense
— 108 starts back on OL; soph QB has 18 starts
— Green Wave is 6-1 ATS TY coming off a win.
— In his career, Fritz is 24-14 ATS as a home favorite.
— UCF ran ball for 336 yards in last week’s 38-31 win.
— Over is 3-1 in their last four games.
— SMU won last seven meetings (5-2 ATS)
— Mustangs are 5-2 ATS in last seven visits to Bourbon Street.
— Over is 7-2 in last nine series games.
— AAC home favorites are 6-11 ATS this year.
Friday night
South Florida @ Tulsa
South Florida (1-9)
— USF lost its last eight games, already fired its coach.
— Bulls allowed 41.3 ppg in the eight losses
— 10 starters back on offense; 9 on defense
— 154 starts back on OL; junior QB had 12 starts at Baylor
— Last 3+ years, USF is 8-35 SU
— Bulls are 8-9-1 ATS in last 18 games as a road underdog.
— USF is 17-13-1 ATS last 31 games coming off a loss.
— Last four games, Bulls allowed 557 yards/game.
— Five of their last six games went over the total.
Tulsa (3-7)
— Tulsa lost six of its last seven games, giving up 33.3 ppg.
— Tulsa was 1-6 ATS in those seven games.
— Tulsa was held to 257-207 TY in last two games.
— Golden Hurricane allowed 357 RY in Saturday’s 27-13 loss to Tulane.
— 6 starters back on offense; 6 on defense
— 51 starts back on OL; junior QB has 13 starts.
— Tulsa is 3-8-1 ATS last 12 games as a home favorite.
— Last 3+ years, Tulsa is 15-11-1 ATS coming off a loss.
— Under is 5-2 in their last seven games.
— Tulsa won last two series games, 32-31/42-13.
— Golden Hurricane covered three of last four series games.
— Over is 3-2 in last five meetings.
— AAC home favorites are 6-11 ATS this year.
San Diego State @ New Mexico
San Diego State (6-4)
— Aztecs won four of their last five games.
— Last three weeks, Aztecs threw ball for 258.3 yards/game.
— 5 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 36 starts back on offensive line; senior QB had 16 starts at Virginia Tech
— Aztecs gave up 32+ points in all their losses.
— San Diego State is 1-3 SU on road (won 23-7 at Nevada).
— Aztecs are 9-6-1 ATS in last 16 games as a road favorite.
— In his career, Hoke is 13-14-2 ATS as a road favorite.
— Aztecs are 35-26-1 ATS in last 62 Mountain West games.
— Under is 5-3 in their last eight games.
New Mexico (2-8)
— Lobos lost their last seven games, scoring 8.1 ppg.
— Last four games, New Mexico gained average of 209.3 yards/game.
— Six of their eight losses are by 17+ points.
— New Mexico is 1-5-1 ATS last seven games as a home underdog.
— Last three games, Lobos allowed 281.3 rushing yards/game.
— 6 starters back on offense, 6 on defense
— 22 starts back on offensive line, but they added 2 JC linemen and a transfer.
— Senior QB started 2 games in three years at Kansas.
— Three of their last four games stayed under the total.
— San Diego State won last eight series games (3-1 ATS last four).
— Aztecs are 2-9 ATS in last 11 visits to Albuquerque.
— Under is 6-2 in last eight meetings.
— Mountain West home underdogs are 9-9 ATS.
13 of Saturday’s best games
TCU @ Baylor
TCU (10-0)
— TCU scored 34+ points in 9 of 10 games this season.
— TCU outgained Texas 283-199 in its 17-10 win LW.
— TCU is 6-0-1 ATS last seven games as a road favorite.
— Dykes is 12-15-1 ATS as a road favorite (3-0-1 TY).
— 10 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
— 113 starts back on offensive line; junior QB has 29 starts
— Horned Frogs scored 35.2 ppg in their five road wins.
— In his career, Dykes is 81-63 SU; this is his 4th HC job.
— Six of their last nine games went over the total.
Baylor (6-4)
— Baylor is 6-1 scoring 31+ points, 0-3 when it doesn’t.
— Bears ran ball for 231+ yards in three of last four games.
— Baylor is 1-4 SU this year when it allows 26+ points.
— Bears are 5-2 ATS last seven games as a home dog.
— 6 starters back on offense, 6 on defense
— You’re reading armadillosports.com
— 119 starts back on offensive line; soph QB has 2 starts
— Bears are 4-1 ATS last five games coming off a loss.
— Baylor is 22-14 ATS in its last 36 conference games.
— Six of last seven Baylor games went over the total.
— TCU won six of last seven meetings.
— Horned Frogs are 6-1 ATS last seven visits to Waco.
— Over is 8-2-1 in last 11 series games.
— Big X home underdogs are 8-4-2 ATS this year.
Illinois @ Michigan
Illinois (7-3)
— Illinois lost its last two games, after a 7-1 start.
— Illinois held seven of last eight opponents under 300 TY.
— Illini was held to 20-15-24 points in losses (5-0 score 26+ points)
— 7 starters back on offense, 6 on defense
— 74 starts return on offensive line; QB started 18 games at Syracuse.
— Illinois is 9-5 ATS last 14 games as a road underdog.
— Illinois is 20-13 ATS in its last 32 conference games.
— In his career, Bielema is 20-14-1 ATS as a road underdog.
— Under is 6-3 in their last nine games.
Michigan (10-0)
— Michigan has one win this year by less than 13 points (Maryland 34-27).
— Maryland (397) is only team that gained more than 281 yards vs Michigan
— Last four weeks, Wolverines ran ball for 310 yards/game.
— 9 starters back on offense, 4 on defense
— 85 starts return on offensive line; soph QB has 15 starts
— Wolverines are 13-5-1 ATS last 19 games as a favorite.
— Michigan is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 home games.
— Michigan is 13-6-2 ATS in last 21 games coming off a win.
— Under is 7-2-1 in their games this season.
— Michigan won last five meetings; last one was in 2019.
— Illini is 5-3 ATS in last eight visits to Ann Arbor.
— Under is 3-1 in last four series games.
— Big 14 home favorites are 12-13-2 ATS this year
Washington State @ Arizona
Washington State (6-4)
— Coogs won their last two games, are now bowl eligible.
— Coogs ran for 65.5 ypg in losses, 143.2 in wins.
— Wazzu is 6-0 giving up 18 or less points; 0-4 if allow more than 17.
— Since 2018, they’re 5-1 ATS as a road favorite.
— Coogs are 12-3-1 ATS in last 16 Pac-12 games.
— 4 starters back on offense, 6 on defense
— 31 starts back on offensive line; new QB was I-AA All-American at Incarnate Word
— Wazzu is 8-3-1 ATS in last 12 games coming off a loss.
— Under is 7-2 in Wazzu’s last nine games.
Arizona (4-6)
— Arizona (+20) upset UCLA 34-28 LW, ending 4-game skid.
— Wildcats are 4-0 allowing less than 30 points.
— Arizona gave up 39+ points in all six losses.
— Last three weeks, they gave up 246.3 rushing yards/game.
— Under Fisch, Arizona is 5-3 ATS as a home underdog.
— Under Fisch, Arizona is 9-7 ATS in Pac-12 tilts.
— 7 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
— 57 starts back on offensive line; soph QB 15 starts at Washington State
— Arizona is 7-13 ATS last 20 games coming off a win.
— Over is 6-2 in their last eight games.
— Washington State won four of last five series games.
— Average total in last six meetings, 85.5
— Coogs are 2-5 ATS in last seven visits to Tucson.
— Last six meetings went over the total.
— Pac-12 home underdogs are 8-8 ATS.
Oregon State @ Arizona State
Oregon State (7-3)
— Oregon State won four of last five games, scoring 30.6 ppg.
— OSU was held to 14-16-21 points in losses to USC/Utah/Washington.
— Beavers are 7-0 when they score 24+ points.
— Last 11 years, Beavers are 2-9 ATS as a road favorite (1-1 TY)
— Last 3+ years, Oregon State is 20-11-1 ATS in Pac-12 games.
— 6 starters back on offense, 9 on defense
— 76 starts back on offensive line; junior QB has 15 starts
— Beavers are 12-3 ATS last 15 games coming off a win.
— Over is 6-3 in their last nine games.
Arizona State (3-7)
— ASU lost its last two games, giving up 50-28 points.
— Last three games, ASU gained average of 452.7 yards/game.
— Sun Devils are 0-7 when they score less than 40 points.
— ASU is 9-6 ATS last 15 games as a home underdog.
— 3 starters back on offense, 4 on defense
— 62 starts back on offensive line; senior QB 12 starts at Florida
— ASU is 18-9-1 last 28 games as an underdog.
— Sun Devils are 8-9 ATS last 17 games coming off a loss.
— Over is 4-2 in their last six games.
— Teams split their last ten meetings.
— Beavers covered three of last four visits to Tempe.
— Over is 12-3 in last 15 series games.
— Pac-12 home underdogs are 8-8 ATS.
NC State @ Louisville
NC State (7-3)
— State lost its home finale LW, as a 19-point favorite.
— Wolfpack split their last six games SU.
— State is 6-0 when it scores 21+ points, 1-3 if it doesn’t.
— Last two weeks, Wolfpack gave up 397-330 passing yards.
— 7 starters back on offense, 10 on defense
— 95 starts back on offensive line; junior QB has 20 starts
— Under Doeren, Wolfpack is 10-14-2 ATS as a road underdog.
— Wolfpack is 6-2 ATS last eight games coming off a loss.
— Under is 3-1-1 in their last five games.
Louisville (6-4)
— Louisville won four of its last five games, scoring 31.2 ppg.
— Cardinals allowed 31-35-34-31 points in their four losses.
— Louisville allowed 21 or less points in their six wins.
— 7 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 116 starts back on offensive line; senior QB has 38 starts
— Louisville is 10-5 ATS last 15 games as a home favorite.
— Last seven games, they’re +15 in turnovers.
— Louisville is 8-6 ATS in its last 14 ACC games.
— Three of their last four games stayed under the total.
— NC State won three of last four series games.
— Wolfpack covered two of last three visits to Louisville.
— Under is 5-2 in last seven meetings.
— ACC home favorites are 14-14 ATS this year.
Texas @ Kansas
Texas (6-4)
— Longhorns lost two of last three games, after a 5-2 start.
— Texas is 1-3 in games decided by less than 7 points.
— Texas gained 426+ TY in six of last eight games.
— Longhorns are 5-4 ATS last nine games as a road favorite.
— 7 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 72 starts back on offensive line.
— went 32-18 SU with Herman as HC; are 11-11 SU with Sarkisian.
— Texas gave up 329+ passing yards in four of last six games.
— Longhorns are 7-6 ATS last 13 games coming off a loss.
— Under is 4-2 in their last six games.
Kansas (6-4)
— Kansas lost four of last five games, after a 5-0 start.
— Jayhawks gave up 437+ yards in eight of nine I-A games.
— Last four games, Kansas allowed 298-273-351-264 RY.
— 9 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
— 89 starts back on offensive line; both returning QB’s have 9 starts
— Kansas is 6-4 SU; last 10 years, they were 18-99 SU
— Jayhawks are 8-16-1 ATS last 25 games as a home underdog.
— In his career, Leipold is 13-6-1 ATS as a home underdog.
— Junior QB Bean is 84-130/1,240 passing, with 14 TD’s, 4 INT’s.
— Three of their last four games went over the total.
— Texas won 15 of last 17 meetings (3-2 last five)
— Longhorns are 1-3 ATS in last four visits to Lawrence.
— Three of last four series games went over the total.
— Big X home underdogs are 8-4-2 ATS this year.
Iowa @ Minnesota
Iowa (6-4)
— Hawkeyes won last three games, giving up 13-3-10 points.
— Iowa beat Wisconsin 24-10 LW, despite gaining only 146 yards.
— Hawkeyes scored 14 or less points in their losses.
— Average total in Iowa’s I-A games: 34.2.
— 7 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 44 starts return on offensive line; junior QB has 19 starts
— Since 2018, they’re 5-3-1 ATS as a road underdog.
— Since 2015, Iowa is +68 in turnovers (98 games)
— Under is 7-3 in their games this season.
Minnesota (7-3)
— Minnesota won last three games, giving up 0-13-3 points.
— Gophers gave up 20+ points in their three losses.
— Gophers are 6-0 when they run for 200+ yards, 1-3 if they do not.
— 6 starters back on offense, 6 on defense
— 64 starts return on offensive line; senior QB has 39 starts
— In his career, Fleck is 19-17 ATS as a home favorite.
— Gophers are 10-7 ATS in last 17 games as a home favorite.
— Under is 5-2 in their last seven games.
— Gophers are 17-8-1 ATS in last 26 games coming off a win.
— Iowa won last seven series games.
— Hawkeyes are 4-1 ATS in last five visits to Minnesota.
— Under is 9-4 in last thirteen meetings.
— Big 14 home favorites are 12-13-2 ATS this year.
Stanford @ Cal
Stanford (3-7)
— Stanford lost seven of its last nine games.
— Last three games, Stanford was outscored 132-34.
— They’re 0-7 when they five up more than 14 points.
— Cardinal is minus-12 in turnovers this season.
— 10 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 104 starts back on offensive line (5 starters); soph QB has 9 starts
— 14-26 SU last 3+ years (71-24 the seven years before that)
— Stanford is 4-10 ATS last 14 games as a road underdog.
— Cardinal are 6-16-1 ATS last 23 games coming off a loss.
— Four of their last five games under the total.
California (3-7)
— Cal lost its last six games, after a 3-1 start.
— Last three games, Bears gave up 42-41-38 points.
— Last six games, Cal ran ball for only 45.5 yards/game.
— Cal is 3-11-1 ATS in last 15 games as a home favorite.
— 3 starters back on offense, 5 on defense
— 51 starts back on offensive line; senior QB 13 starts at Purdue
— Cal is 12-9 ATS last 21 games coming off a loss.
— under Wilcox: 25-21-1 ATS in Pac-12 tilts.
— Cal’s last three games went over the total.
— Stanford won 10 of last 12 meetings.
— Road team won last four meetings.
— Cardinal covered their last six visits to Berkeley.
— Under is 6-4 in last ten series games.
— Pac-12 home favorites are 15-8 ATS.
Texas Tech @ Iowa State
Texas Tech (5-5)
— Red Raiders lost four of last six games SU.
— Average total in their last seven games, 65.3.
— Red Raiders is 5-0 scoring 33+ points, 0-5 if they score less than 33.
— Tech is 0-3 SU if it gains less than 468 yards.
— 6 starters back on offense, 6 on defense
— 124 starts back on offensive line; junior QB had 11 starts at Oregon
— Tech is 5-10 ATS in last 15 games as a road underdog.
— Red Raiders allowed 426+ TY in six of last seven games.
— Five of their last seven games went over the total.
Iowa State (4-6)
— Iowa State lost 6 of last 7 games, after a 3-0 start.
— Cyclones are 1-5 in games decided by 7 or less points.
— In their wins, Cyclones allowed 10-7-10-14 points.
— 5 starters back on offense, 3 on defense
— 66 starts back on offensive line.
— Iowa State’s last six games stayed under the total.
— Iowa State is 8-6 ATS last 14 games as a home favorite.
— Under Campbell, they’re 22-12-1 ATS coming off a loss.
— Under Campbell, Cyclones are 34-26-2 ATS in conference games.
— Iowa State won five of last six series games.
— Red Raiders lost last three trips to Ames, by average score of 46-19.
— Three of last four meetings went over the total.
— Big X home favorites are 12-9 ATS.
Ole Miss @ Arkansas
Ole Miss (8-2)
— Ole Miss scored 31+ points in six of its eight wins.
— Rebels gave up 45-30 points in their two losses.
— Rebels gave up 441+ total yards three of last four games.
— Under Kiffin, Rebels are 4-2-1 ATS as a road favorite.
— In his college career, Kiffin is 14-15-1 ATS as a road favorite.
— 5 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 111 starts back on offensive line; soph QB started 3 games at USC.
— Last four games, Ole Miss allowed average of 33.8 ppg.
— Four of their last five games went over the total.
Arkansas (5-5)
— QB Jefferson is banged up (check status)
— Arkansas lost five of last seven games, after a 3-0 start.
— Hogs lost last two games, by total of five points.
— Arkansas is 5-0 scoring 31+ points, 0-5 if they score less than 31.
— 7 starters back on offense, 4 on defense
— 101 starts back on offensive line; soph QB has 15 starts
— Under Pittman, Razorbacks are 5-3 ATS as a home underdog.
— Razorbacks are 14-9-1 ATS in last 23 SEC games (3-3 TY).
— Over is 6-3 in their games this season.
— Under Pittman, Razorbacks are 7-6 ATS coming off a loss.
— Ole Miss won three of last four meetings.
— LY, Rebels beat Arkansas 52-51, despite giving up 676 TY.
— Ole Miss is 0-4 ATS in last four visits to Arkansas.
— Four of last five series games went over the total.
Oklahoma State @ Oklahoma
Oklahoma State (7-3)
— OSU lost three of last five games, after a 5-0 start.
— Cowboys scored 41.7 ppg in first six I-A games, 12 ppg in last three.
— OSU gave up 43-48-37 points in its three losses.
— OSU gave up 457+ total yards in six of its seven Big X games.
— 7 starters back on offense, 4 on defense
— 55 starts back on offensive line; junior QB has 32 starts
— State is 8-2 ATS last ten games as a road underdog.
— OSU is 21-10-1 ATS last 32 games coming off a win.
— Since 2018, Cowboys are 21-11-1 ATS in Big X games.
— Their last three games stayed under the total.
Oklahoma (5-5)
— Oklahoma lost last two games, both by two points.
— Sooners allowed 200+ rushing yards in five of last seven games.
— Oklahoma allowed 38+ points in five of last seven games.
— Sooners are 14-16 ATS in last 30 games as a home favorite.
— Oklahoma is 1-6 ATS in conference games this year.
— 5 starters back on offense, 5 on defense
— 125 starts back on offensive line; soph QB had 25 starts at UCF
— Oklahoma ran ball for 238+ yards three of last four games.
— Sooners are 3-6 ATS last nine games coming off a loss.
— Oklahoma won six of last seven series games.
— Cowboys are 3-6 ATS in last nine visits to Norman.
— Over is 6-3-1 in last ten meetings.
— Big X home favorites are 12-9 ATS.
USC @ UCLA
USC (9-1)
— Trojans scored 41+ points in eight of their ten games.
— USC has a +17 turnover margin this season.
— Last four games, USC gave up 33 ppg.
— 8 starters back on offense, 3 on defense
— 109 starts back on offensive line; soph QB started 7 games at Oklahoma
— Trojans are 16-9 ATS last 25 games as a road favorite.
— Since 2017, USC is 16-24 ATS in games coming off a win.
— In his career, Riley is 8-13-1 ATS as a road favorite.
— USC is 6-11 ATS in last 17 conference games.
— Over is 5-1 in Trojans’ last six games.
UCLA (8-2)
— UCLA lost here as a 20-point favorite vs Arizona LW.
— UCLA scored 28+ points in every game this season.
— Bruins allowed 32+ points in five of last six games.
— 6 starters back on offense, 2 on defense
— 84 starts back on offensive line; senior QB has 35 starts
— Under Kelly, they’re 8-5 ATS as a home underdog.
— In his career, Kelly is 10-5 ATS as a home favorite.
— UCLA is 15-8 ATS in last 23 Pac-12 games.
— Bruins are 6-2 ATS last eight games coming off a loss.
— Eight of their nine I-A games went over the total.
— Teams split last four games, with average total of 81. Yes, 81.
— Trojans are 3-5 ATS in last eight road series games.
— Last four meetings in this rivalry went over the total.
— Pac-12 home underdogs are 8-8 ATS.
Utah @ Oregon
Utah (8-2)
— Utes won its last four games, giving up 17-20-7 in last three.
— Utah allowed 29-42 points in their two losses.
— Utes are 20-10 ATS in last 30 games coming off a win.
— Utah scored 32+ points in six of their last seven games.
— Utah is +6 in turnovers this season.
— Utes have 8 starters back on offense, 6 on defense
— 73 starts back on offensive line; junior QB started 12 games
— Since 2014, Utah is 13-2 ATS as a road underdog.
— Last three Utah games stayed under the total.
— Since 2016, Utah is 39-21 ATS in Pac-12 games.
Oregon (8-2)
— Oregon won eight of its last nine games, scoring 34+ in all nine.
— Ducks gave up 49-37 points in their two losses.
— Last five games, Ducks are +7 in turnovers.
— 8 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 86 starts back on offensive line; senior QB had 34 starts at Auburn
— Ducks are 9-13-2 ATS last 24 games as a home favorite.
— Oregon is 5-2 ATS in Pac-12 tilts this season.
— Oregon is 10-13 ATS last 23 games coming off a loss.
— Over is 6-2 in Oregon’s last eight games.
— Utah whacked Oregon twice LY, 38-7/38-10.
— Utes are 3-3 ATS in last six visits to Eugene.
— Over is 7-3 in last ten series games.
— Pac-12 home favorites are 14-8 ATS.
Armadillo's Write-Up
Week 12
Thursday night
SMU @ Tulane
SMU (6-4)
— SMU won its last three games, scoring 45-77-41 points.
— SMU gained 554.3 yards/game in those wins.
— Mustangs are also +5 in turnovers in those games.
— 6 starters back on offense; 7 on defense
— 74 starts back on OL; junior QB has 12 starts
— SMU is 1-4 ATS last five games as a road underdog.
— SMU is 12-16 ATS in last 28 conference games (3-2 TY).
— Three of their last four games went over total.
— QB Mordecai has completed 63.3% of passes, with 27 TD’s, 7 INTs.
Tulane (8-2)
— Green Wave had its 5-game win streak snapped by UCF last week.
— Tulane scored 32 ppg in its last six games.
— Tulane is 13-3 ATS last 16 games as a home favorite.
— Green Wave’s losses (27-24 So Miss/38-31 UCF) were both at home.
— 9 starters back on offense; 9 on defense
— 108 starts back on OL; soph QB has 18 starts
— Green Wave is 6-1 ATS TY coming off a win.
— In his career, Fritz is 24-14 ATS as a home favorite.
— UCF ran ball for 336 yards in last week’s 38-31 win.
— Over is 3-1 in their last four games.
— SMU won last seven meetings (5-2 ATS)
— Mustangs are 5-2 ATS in last seven visits to Bourbon Street.
— Over is 7-2 in last nine series games.
— AAC home favorites are 6-11 ATS this year.
Friday night
South Florida @ Tulsa
South Florida (1-9)
— USF lost its last eight games, already fired its coach.
— Bulls allowed 41.3 ppg in the eight losses
— 10 starters back on offense; 9 on defense
— 154 starts back on OL; junior QB had 12 starts at Baylor
— Last 3+ years, USF is 8-35 SU
— Bulls are 8-9-1 ATS in last 18 games as a road underdog.
— USF is 17-13-1 ATS last 31 games coming off a loss.
— Last four games, Bulls allowed 557 yards/game.
— Five of their last six games went over the total.
Tulsa (3-7)
— Tulsa lost six of its last seven games, giving up 33.3 ppg.
— Tulsa was 1-6 ATS in those seven games.
— Tulsa was held to 257-207 TY in last two games.
— Golden Hurricane allowed 357 RY in Saturday’s 27-13 loss to Tulane.
— 6 starters back on offense; 6 on defense
— 51 starts back on OL; junior QB has 13 starts.
— Tulsa is 3-8-1 ATS last 12 games as a home favorite.
— Last 3+ years, Tulsa is 15-11-1 ATS coming off a loss.
— Under is 5-2 in their last seven games.
— Tulsa won last two series games, 32-31/42-13.
— Golden Hurricane covered three of last four series games.
— Over is 3-2 in last five meetings.
— AAC home favorites are 6-11 ATS this year.
San Diego State @ New Mexico
San Diego State (6-4)
— Aztecs won four of their last five games.
— Last three weeks, Aztecs threw ball for 258.3 yards/game.
— 5 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 36 starts back on offensive line; senior QB had 16 starts at Virginia Tech
— Aztecs gave up 32+ points in all their losses.
— San Diego State is 1-3 SU on road (won 23-7 at Nevada).
— Aztecs are 9-6-1 ATS in last 16 games as a road favorite.
— In his career, Hoke is 13-14-2 ATS as a road favorite.
— Aztecs are 35-26-1 ATS in last 62 Mountain West games.
— Under is 5-3 in their last eight games.
New Mexico (2-8)
— Lobos lost their last seven games, scoring 8.1 ppg.
— Last four games, New Mexico gained average of 209.3 yards/game.
— Six of their eight losses are by 17+ points.
— New Mexico is 1-5-1 ATS last seven games as a home underdog.
— Last three games, Lobos allowed 281.3 rushing yards/game.
— 6 starters back on offense, 6 on defense
— 22 starts back on offensive line, but they added 2 JC linemen and a transfer.
— Senior QB started 2 games in three years at Kansas.
— Three of their last four games stayed under the total.
— San Diego State won last eight series games (3-1 ATS last four).
— Aztecs are 2-9 ATS in last 11 visits to Albuquerque.
— Under is 6-2 in last eight meetings.
— Mountain West home underdogs are 9-9 ATS.
13 of Saturday’s best games
TCU @ Baylor
TCU (10-0)
— TCU scored 34+ points in 9 of 10 games this season.
— TCU outgained Texas 283-199 in its 17-10 win LW.
— TCU is 6-0-1 ATS last seven games as a road favorite.
— Dykes is 12-15-1 ATS as a road favorite (3-0-1 TY).
— 10 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
— 113 starts back on offensive line; junior QB has 29 starts
— Horned Frogs scored 35.2 ppg in their five road wins.
— In his career, Dykes is 81-63 SU; this is his 4th HC job.
— Six of their last nine games went over the total.
Baylor (6-4)
— Baylor is 6-1 scoring 31+ points, 0-3 when it doesn’t.
— Bears ran ball for 231+ yards in three of last four games.
— Baylor is 1-4 SU this year when it allows 26+ points.
— Bears are 5-2 ATS last seven games as a home dog.
— 6 starters back on offense, 6 on defense
— You’re reading armadillosports.com
— 119 starts back on offensive line; soph QB has 2 starts
— Bears are 4-1 ATS last five games coming off a loss.
— Baylor is 22-14 ATS in its last 36 conference games.
— Six of last seven Baylor games went over the total.
— TCU won six of last seven meetings.
— Horned Frogs are 6-1 ATS last seven visits to Waco.
— Over is 8-2-1 in last 11 series games.
— Big X home underdogs are 8-4-2 ATS this year.
Illinois @ Michigan
Illinois (7-3)
— Illinois lost its last two games, after a 7-1 start.
— Illinois held seven of last eight opponents under 300 TY.
— Illini was held to 20-15-24 points in losses (5-0 score 26+ points)
— 7 starters back on offense, 6 on defense
— 74 starts return on offensive line; QB started 18 games at Syracuse.
— Illinois is 9-5 ATS last 14 games as a road underdog.
— Illinois is 20-13 ATS in its last 32 conference games.
— In his career, Bielema is 20-14-1 ATS as a road underdog.
— Under is 6-3 in their last nine games.
Michigan (10-0)
— Michigan has one win this year by less than 13 points (Maryland 34-27).
— Maryland (397) is only team that gained more than 281 yards vs Michigan
— Last four weeks, Wolverines ran ball for 310 yards/game.
— 9 starters back on offense, 4 on defense
— 85 starts return on offensive line; soph QB has 15 starts
— Wolverines are 13-5-1 ATS last 19 games as a favorite.
— Michigan is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 home games.
— Michigan is 13-6-2 ATS in last 21 games coming off a win.
— Under is 7-2-1 in their games this season.
— Michigan won last five meetings; last one was in 2019.
— Illini is 5-3 ATS in last eight visits to Ann Arbor.
— Under is 3-1 in last four series games.
— Big 14 home favorites are 12-13-2 ATS this year
Washington State @ Arizona
Washington State (6-4)
— Coogs won their last two games, are now bowl eligible.
— Coogs ran for 65.5 ypg in losses, 143.2 in wins.
— Wazzu is 6-0 giving up 18 or less points; 0-4 if allow more than 17.
— Since 2018, they’re 5-1 ATS as a road favorite.
— Coogs are 12-3-1 ATS in last 16 Pac-12 games.
— 4 starters back on offense, 6 on defense
— 31 starts back on offensive line; new QB was I-AA All-American at Incarnate Word
— Wazzu is 8-3-1 ATS in last 12 games coming off a loss.
— Under is 7-2 in Wazzu’s last nine games.
Arizona (4-6)
— Arizona (+20) upset UCLA 34-28 LW, ending 4-game skid.
— Wildcats are 4-0 allowing less than 30 points.
— Arizona gave up 39+ points in all six losses.
— Last three weeks, they gave up 246.3 rushing yards/game.
— Under Fisch, Arizona is 5-3 ATS as a home underdog.
— Under Fisch, Arizona is 9-7 ATS in Pac-12 tilts.
— 7 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
— 57 starts back on offensive line; soph QB 15 starts at Washington State
— Arizona is 7-13 ATS last 20 games coming off a win.
— Over is 6-2 in their last eight games.
— Washington State won four of last five series games.
— Average total in last six meetings, 85.5
— Coogs are 2-5 ATS in last seven visits to Tucson.
— Last six meetings went over the total.
— Pac-12 home underdogs are 8-8 ATS.
Oregon State @ Arizona State
Oregon State (7-3)
— Oregon State won four of last five games, scoring 30.6 ppg.
— OSU was held to 14-16-21 points in losses to USC/Utah/Washington.
— Beavers are 7-0 when they score 24+ points.
— Last 11 years, Beavers are 2-9 ATS as a road favorite (1-1 TY)
— Last 3+ years, Oregon State is 20-11-1 ATS in Pac-12 games.
— 6 starters back on offense, 9 on defense
— 76 starts back on offensive line; junior QB has 15 starts
— Beavers are 12-3 ATS last 15 games coming off a win.
— Over is 6-3 in their last nine games.
Arizona State (3-7)
— ASU lost its last two games, giving up 50-28 points.
— Last three games, ASU gained average of 452.7 yards/game.
— Sun Devils are 0-7 when they score less than 40 points.
— ASU is 9-6 ATS last 15 games as a home underdog.
— 3 starters back on offense, 4 on defense
— 62 starts back on offensive line; senior QB 12 starts at Florida
— ASU is 18-9-1 last 28 games as an underdog.
— Sun Devils are 8-9 ATS last 17 games coming off a loss.
— Over is 4-2 in their last six games.
— Teams split their last ten meetings.
— Beavers covered three of last four visits to Tempe.
— Over is 12-3 in last 15 series games.
— Pac-12 home underdogs are 8-8 ATS.
NC State @ Louisville
NC State (7-3)
— State lost its home finale LW, as a 19-point favorite.
— Wolfpack split their last six games SU.
— State is 6-0 when it scores 21+ points, 1-3 if it doesn’t.
— Last two weeks, Wolfpack gave up 397-330 passing yards.
— 7 starters back on offense, 10 on defense
— 95 starts back on offensive line; junior QB has 20 starts
— Under Doeren, Wolfpack is 10-14-2 ATS as a road underdog.
— Wolfpack is 6-2 ATS last eight games coming off a loss.
— Under is 3-1-1 in their last five games.
Louisville (6-4)
— Louisville won four of its last five games, scoring 31.2 ppg.
— Cardinals allowed 31-35-34-31 points in their four losses.
— Louisville allowed 21 or less points in their six wins.
— 7 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 116 starts back on offensive line; senior QB has 38 starts
— Louisville is 10-5 ATS last 15 games as a home favorite.
— Last seven games, they’re +15 in turnovers.
— Louisville is 8-6 ATS in its last 14 ACC games.
— Three of their last four games stayed under the total.
— NC State won three of last four series games.
— Wolfpack covered two of last three visits to Louisville.
— Under is 5-2 in last seven meetings.
— ACC home favorites are 14-14 ATS this year.
Texas @ Kansas
Texas (6-4)
— Longhorns lost two of last three games, after a 5-2 start.
— Texas is 1-3 in games decided by less than 7 points.
— Texas gained 426+ TY in six of last eight games.
— Longhorns are 5-4 ATS last nine games as a road favorite.
— 7 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 72 starts back on offensive line.
— went 32-18 SU with Herman as HC; are 11-11 SU with Sarkisian.
— Texas gave up 329+ passing yards in four of last six games.
— Longhorns are 7-6 ATS last 13 games coming off a loss.
— Under is 4-2 in their last six games.
Kansas (6-4)
— Kansas lost four of last five games, after a 5-0 start.
— Jayhawks gave up 437+ yards in eight of nine I-A games.
— Last four games, Kansas allowed 298-273-351-264 RY.
— 9 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
— 89 starts back on offensive line; both returning QB’s have 9 starts
— Kansas is 6-4 SU; last 10 years, they were 18-99 SU
— Jayhawks are 8-16-1 ATS last 25 games as a home underdog.
— In his career, Leipold is 13-6-1 ATS as a home underdog.
— Junior QB Bean is 84-130/1,240 passing, with 14 TD’s, 4 INT’s.
— Three of their last four games went over the total.
— Texas won 15 of last 17 meetings (3-2 last five)
— Longhorns are 1-3 ATS in last four visits to Lawrence.
— Three of last four series games went over the total.
— Big X home underdogs are 8-4-2 ATS this year.
Iowa @ Minnesota
Iowa (6-4)
— Hawkeyes won last three games, giving up 13-3-10 points.
— Iowa beat Wisconsin 24-10 LW, despite gaining only 146 yards.
— Hawkeyes scored 14 or less points in their losses.
— Average total in Iowa’s I-A games: 34.2.
— 7 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 44 starts return on offensive line; junior QB has 19 starts
— Since 2018, they’re 5-3-1 ATS as a road underdog.
— Since 2015, Iowa is +68 in turnovers (98 games)
— Under is 7-3 in their games this season.
Minnesota (7-3)
— Minnesota won last three games, giving up 0-13-3 points.
— Gophers gave up 20+ points in their three losses.
— Gophers are 6-0 when they run for 200+ yards, 1-3 if they do not.
— 6 starters back on offense, 6 on defense
— 64 starts return on offensive line; senior QB has 39 starts
— In his career, Fleck is 19-17 ATS as a home favorite.
— Gophers are 10-7 ATS in last 17 games as a home favorite.
— Under is 5-2 in their last seven games.
— Gophers are 17-8-1 ATS in last 26 games coming off a win.
— Iowa won last seven series games.
— Hawkeyes are 4-1 ATS in last five visits to Minnesota.
— Under is 9-4 in last thirteen meetings.
— Big 14 home favorites are 12-13-2 ATS this year.
Stanford @ Cal
Stanford (3-7)
— Stanford lost seven of its last nine games.
— Last three games, Stanford was outscored 132-34.
— They’re 0-7 when they five up more than 14 points.
— Cardinal is minus-12 in turnovers this season.
— 10 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 104 starts back on offensive line (5 starters); soph QB has 9 starts
— 14-26 SU last 3+ years (71-24 the seven years before that)
— Stanford is 4-10 ATS last 14 games as a road underdog.
— Cardinal are 6-16-1 ATS last 23 games coming off a loss.
— Four of their last five games under the total.
California (3-7)
— Cal lost its last six games, after a 3-1 start.
— Last three games, Bears gave up 42-41-38 points.
— Last six games, Cal ran ball for only 45.5 yards/game.
— Cal is 3-11-1 ATS in last 15 games as a home favorite.
— 3 starters back on offense, 5 on defense
— 51 starts back on offensive line; senior QB 13 starts at Purdue
— Cal is 12-9 ATS last 21 games coming off a loss.
— under Wilcox: 25-21-1 ATS in Pac-12 tilts.
— Cal’s last three games went over the total.
— Stanford won 10 of last 12 meetings.
— Road team won last four meetings.
— Cardinal covered their last six visits to Berkeley.
— Under is 6-4 in last ten series games.
— Pac-12 home favorites are 15-8 ATS.
Texas Tech @ Iowa State
Texas Tech (5-5)
— Red Raiders lost four of last six games SU.
— Average total in their last seven games, 65.3.
— Red Raiders is 5-0 scoring 33+ points, 0-5 if they score less than 33.
— Tech is 0-3 SU if it gains less than 468 yards.
— 6 starters back on offense, 6 on defense
— 124 starts back on offensive line; junior QB had 11 starts at Oregon
— Tech is 5-10 ATS in last 15 games as a road underdog.
— Red Raiders allowed 426+ TY in six of last seven games.
— Five of their last seven games went over the total.
Iowa State (4-6)
— Iowa State lost 6 of last 7 games, after a 3-0 start.
— Cyclones are 1-5 in games decided by 7 or less points.
— In their wins, Cyclones allowed 10-7-10-14 points.
— 5 starters back on offense, 3 on defense
— 66 starts back on offensive line.
— Iowa State’s last six games stayed under the total.
— Iowa State is 8-6 ATS last 14 games as a home favorite.
— Under Campbell, they’re 22-12-1 ATS coming off a loss.
— Under Campbell, Cyclones are 34-26-2 ATS in conference games.
— Iowa State won five of last six series games.
— Red Raiders lost last three trips to Ames, by average score of 46-19.
— Three of last four meetings went over the total.
— Big X home favorites are 12-9 ATS.
Ole Miss @ Arkansas
Ole Miss (8-2)
— Ole Miss scored 31+ points in six of its eight wins.
— Rebels gave up 45-30 points in their two losses.
— Rebels gave up 441+ total yards three of last four games.
— Under Kiffin, Rebels are 4-2-1 ATS as a road favorite.
— In his college career, Kiffin is 14-15-1 ATS as a road favorite.
— 5 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 111 starts back on offensive line; soph QB started 3 games at USC.
— Last four games, Ole Miss allowed average of 33.8 ppg.
— Four of their last five games went over the total.
Arkansas (5-5)
— QB Jefferson is banged up (check status)
— Arkansas lost five of last seven games, after a 3-0 start.
— Hogs lost last two games, by total of five points.
— Arkansas is 5-0 scoring 31+ points, 0-5 if they score less than 31.
— 7 starters back on offense, 4 on defense
— 101 starts back on offensive line; soph QB has 15 starts
— Under Pittman, Razorbacks are 5-3 ATS as a home underdog.
— Razorbacks are 14-9-1 ATS in last 23 SEC games (3-3 TY).
— Over is 6-3 in their games this season.
— Under Pittman, Razorbacks are 7-6 ATS coming off a loss.
— Ole Miss won three of last four meetings.
— LY, Rebels beat Arkansas 52-51, despite giving up 676 TY.
— Ole Miss is 0-4 ATS in last four visits to Arkansas.
— Four of last five series games went over the total.
Oklahoma State @ Oklahoma
Oklahoma State (7-3)
— OSU lost three of last five games, after a 5-0 start.
— Cowboys scored 41.7 ppg in first six I-A games, 12 ppg in last three.
— OSU gave up 43-48-37 points in its three losses.
— OSU gave up 457+ total yards in six of its seven Big X games.
— 7 starters back on offense, 4 on defense
— 55 starts back on offensive line; junior QB has 32 starts
— State is 8-2 ATS last ten games as a road underdog.
— OSU is 21-10-1 ATS last 32 games coming off a win.
— Since 2018, Cowboys are 21-11-1 ATS in Big X games.
— Their last three games stayed under the total.
Oklahoma (5-5)
— Oklahoma lost last two games, both by two points.
— Sooners allowed 200+ rushing yards in five of last seven games.
— Oklahoma allowed 38+ points in five of last seven games.
— Sooners are 14-16 ATS in last 30 games as a home favorite.
— Oklahoma is 1-6 ATS in conference games this year.
— 5 starters back on offense, 5 on defense
— 125 starts back on offensive line; soph QB had 25 starts at UCF
— Oklahoma ran ball for 238+ yards three of last four games.
— Sooners are 3-6 ATS last nine games coming off a loss.
— Oklahoma won six of last seven series games.
— Cowboys are 3-6 ATS in last nine visits to Norman.
— Over is 6-3-1 in last ten meetings.
— Big X home favorites are 12-9 ATS.
USC @ UCLA
USC (9-1)
— Trojans scored 41+ points in eight of their ten games.
— USC has a +17 turnover margin this season.
— Last four games, USC gave up 33 ppg.
— 8 starters back on offense, 3 on defense
— 109 starts back on offensive line; soph QB started 7 games at Oklahoma
— Trojans are 16-9 ATS last 25 games as a road favorite.
— Since 2017, USC is 16-24 ATS in games coming off a win.
— In his career, Riley is 8-13-1 ATS as a road favorite.
— USC is 6-11 ATS in last 17 conference games.
— Over is 5-1 in Trojans’ last six games.
UCLA (8-2)
— UCLA lost here as a 20-point favorite vs Arizona LW.
— UCLA scored 28+ points in every game this season.
— Bruins allowed 32+ points in five of last six games.
— 6 starters back on offense, 2 on defense
— 84 starts back on offensive line; senior QB has 35 starts
— Under Kelly, they’re 8-5 ATS as a home underdog.
— In his career, Kelly is 10-5 ATS as a home favorite.
— UCLA is 15-8 ATS in last 23 Pac-12 games.
— Bruins are 6-2 ATS last eight games coming off a loss.
— Eight of their nine I-A games went over the total.
— Teams split last four games, with average total of 81. Yes, 81.
— Trojans are 3-5 ATS in last eight road series games.
— Last four meetings in this rivalry went over the total.
— Pac-12 home underdogs are 8-8 ATS.
Utah @ Oregon
Utah (8-2)
— Utes won its last four games, giving up 17-20-7 in last three.
— Utah allowed 29-42 points in their two losses.
— Utes are 20-10 ATS in last 30 games coming off a win.
— Utah scored 32+ points in six of their last seven games.
— Utah is +6 in turnovers this season.
— Utes have 8 starters back on offense, 6 on defense
— 73 starts back on offensive line; junior QB started 12 games
— Since 2014, Utah is 13-2 ATS as a road underdog.
— Last three Utah games stayed under the total.
— Since 2016, Utah is 39-21 ATS in Pac-12 games.
Oregon (8-2)
— Oregon won eight of its last nine games, scoring 34+ in all nine.
— Ducks gave up 49-37 points in their two losses.
— Last five games, Ducks are +7 in turnovers.
— 8 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 86 starts back on offensive line; senior QB had 34 starts at Auburn
— Ducks are 9-13-2 ATS last 24 games as a home favorite.
— Oregon is 5-2 ATS in Pac-12 tilts this season.
— Oregon is 10-13 ATS last 23 games coming off a loss.
— Over is 6-2 in Oregon’s last eight games.
— Utah whacked Oregon twice LY, 38-7/38-10.
— Utes are 3-3 ATS in last six visits to Eugene.
— Over is 7-3 in last ten series games.
— Pac-12 home favorites are 14-8 ATS.
