Cnotes college football 2022-2023 news/trends/best bets thru ncaa championship !

[Udog]

NCAAF

Week 11

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Trend Report
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[Udog]

NCAAF
Dunkel

Week 11

 

[Udog]

NCAAF
Weather Report

Week 11

NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 11

Tuesday night

Eastern Michigan @ Akron
Eastern Michigan (5-4)
— Eagles won their last three road games, scoring 31.7 ppg.
— EMU was held under 300 TY in three of last four games.
— 8 starters back on offense, 6 on defense
— 123 starts back on offensive line.
— senior QB has 6 starts; one at Missouri, 5 at Troy
— last 11 years, EMU is 5-4 ATS as a road favorite.
— Eagles are 24-10-1 ATS in last 35 games coming off a loss.
— Four of their last five games stayed under the total.

Akron (1-8)
— Akron is 0-8 TY vs I-A teams (4-4 ATS)
— Last 11 years, Zips are 7-27 ATS as a home dog, but 2-1 this year.
— 8 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
— 96 starts back on offensive line; junior QB has 3 starts
— Last 4+ years, they’re 8-43 SU
— Since 2019, they’re 10-25 ATS as an underdog.
— Last 2+ years, they’re 9-9-1 ATS coming off a loss.
— Zips’ last three games stayed under the total.

— EMU won last two series games, 42-14/27-7
— Teams haven’t met since 2019.
— Eagles are 5-0-1 ATS in last six visits to Akron.
— Over is 4-3 in last seven meetings.

Ohio U @ Miami OH
Ohio U (6-3)
— Ohio won its last four games, scoring 39.3 ppg.
— First six games, Bobcats gave up 561.2 yards/game; last three, 323.3.
— 5 starters back on offense, 9 on defense
— have 69 starts back on offensive line; soph QB has 11 starts.
— Since 2017, Bobcats are 6-7 ATS as a road favorite.
— 8-1 ATS last nine games coming off a win.
— Ohio is 5-0 this year when it scores more than 24 points.
— Over is 5-3 in their I-A games this season.

Miami OH (4-5)
— Miami is 1-5 vs I-A teams if it scores less than 20 points.
— Last three games, Miami ran ball 99 times for 265 yards.
— 9 starters back on offense, 5 on defense
— 72 starts back on offensive line; junior QB 25 starts
— Since 2017, they’re 5-0 ATS as a home underdog.
— Red Hawks are 14-12 ATS in last 26 games as an underdog.
— Miami is 4-7 ATS in last 11 games coming off a win.
— Under is 7-1 in their I-A games this season.

— Ohio won 12 of last 15 meetings.
— Bobcats are 4-2-1 ATS in last seven visits to Miami.
— Under is 9-3 in last dozen series games.
— Home underdogs are 9-6 ATS in MAC conference games.

Ball State @ Toledo
Ball State (5-4)
— Ball State won four of its last five games.
— Cardinals are 3-1 in games decided by 6 or less points.
— 6 starters back on offense, 5 on defense
— 57 starts back on offensive line.
— junior QB has 16 TD passes, 10 INT’s, completed 61.6% of passes.
— Ball State is 3-7 ATS in last ten games coming off a win.
— Cardinals are 4-5 ATS last nine games as a road underdog.
— Five of their last six games stayed under the total.

Toledo (6-3)
— Toledo won four of its last five games.
— Rockets are 3-0 ATS as a home favorite this year.
— 7 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
— 79 starts back on offensive line; soph QB has 7 starts
— Toledo is 5-0 if it scores 37+ points, 1-3 if it doesn’t.
— Rockets are minus-10 in turnovers in losses, +6 in wins.
— Toledo is 7-5 ATS in last 12 games coming off a win.
— Three of their last four games went over the total.

— So far this year, MAC home favorites are 4-14-1 ATS.
— Toledo won six of last eight series games.
— Cardinals are 7-1 ATS in last eight visits to Toledo.
— Under is 8-2 in last ten meetings.

 

[Udog]

Akron has been the worst team in the MAC this year. The Zips are 0-5 in conference play and 1-8 overall, and that lone win was against an FCS team. That has the Zips ranked 130th nationally in SP+ (only ahead of UMass in the FBS), but there is reason to believe they will stay within the number this week.

The Zips are 1-3 at home and two of those losses were by seven points or less. Their one sizeable home loss came in a game where they were mistake-prone throughout, leading to Miami (OH) winning 27-9. Akron had three turnovers (including a pick-six in that game), but the RedHawks had just 268 total yards of offense.

Eastern Michigan doesn't blow teams out. Only one of the Eagles' five wins this season was by double digits, and they have lost two of their last three games. Their quarterbacks have been turnover prone with 10 interceptions against 13 touchdowns, and the Eagles are averaging just 3.7 YPC because Taylor Powell can be a statue in the pocket.

Akron isn't great (or even good) on offense, but dual-threat signal caller D. J. Irons should keep this close provided he gets a little protection. Irons has been sacked 41 times in nine games, yet Eastern Michigan only has one pass rushing threat. Defensive end Jose Ramirez is responsible for eight of the Eagles' 14 sacks, and his presence can be mitigated.



Ohio has won the Battle of the Bricks against Miami of Ohio in 12 of the last 15 seasons (2020 excluded). The Bobcats are already bowl eligible this season, and they are looking to win the MAC East over Buffalo and Bowling Green. On offense, they are led by quarterback Kurtis Rourke. His older brother Nathan Rourke was a star in Athens for years, but the younger Rourke brother might be even better. Kurtis Rourke is completing 68.5% of his passes for 2,725 yards (9.0 YPA) with 21 touchdowns and four interceptions this season. He is also a mobile threat, and the presence of top receiver Sam Wiglusz has the Bobcats ranked 71st in Offensive SP+.

The RedHawks are ranked much worse on offense. Miami (OH) is currently 126th in Offensive SP+ as this offense struggled to move the ball with backup quarterback Aveon Smith under center. Fortunately, another younger quarterback brother is back, as Brett Gabbert finally returned to action two weeks ago. Gabbert was injured in the season opener against Kentucky, and he didn't play again until Miami took on Western Michigan on October 22. He largely shook off the rust in that game, but he looked better last week against Akron. Gabbert was the MAC Offensive Player of the Year in 2021, completing 59.5% of his passes for 2,648 yards (8.9 YPA) with 26 touchdowns and six interceptions, so this could be a breakout game for him.



Toledo is the best team in the MAC by a mile. The Rockets may be only one game ahead of the Ball State Cardinals in the MAC West Division race, but there's a reason they are a double-digit favorite by the college football betting odds. They would be 8-1 right now if not for a four-turnover performance in a three-point loss to San Diego State and a six-turnover performance that allowed Buffalo to score 24 unanswered points in the fourth quarter for a 34-27 loss.

Starting quarterback Dequan Finn didn't play in last week's victory over Eastern Michigan, but Tucker Gleason was just fine in his absence, throwing for three touchdowns in the win over the Eagles. Even if Finn doesn't play, the Rockets still have the edge as Jason Candle has done an excellent job with this offense. Jerjuan Newton is averaging 18.5 YPR and has seven touchdowns as a big play threat, while Jacquez Stuart is averaging 6.1 YPC on the ground.

Ball State hasn't posted bad numbers on offense. Carson Steele is now over 1,000 rushing yards after four straight games of 100+ yards, and Jayshon Jackson has 64 receptions for 735 yards and three touchdowns. However, this offense is pretty formulaic as John Paddock can't stretch the field and is turnover prone. Paddock is averaging 6.1 YPA and has a long of just 43 yards in 366 passes this season. Paddock has thrown 10 interceptions and isn't a real mobile threat, so Toledo should be able to shut down the RedHawks' offense.

 

[Udog]

NCAAF
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Week 11

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Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 11

Wednesday night
Northern Illinois @ Western Michigan
Northern Illinois (2-7)
— Huskies are 1-7 vs I-A teams, winning 39-10 at Eastern Michigan.
— NIU allowed 31+ points in six of their seven losses.
— Last three games, Huskies threw for only 131 yards/game.
— 9 starters back on offense, 9 on defense
— 90 starts back on offensive line
— senior QB has 22 starts, 13 of them at Michigan State
— 11-5 ATS last 16 games as a road underdog.
— 12-10 ATS last 22 games coming off a loss.
— Over is 6-2 in their last eight games.

Western Michigan (3-6)
— Broncos are 2-6 vs I-A teams, 2-3 in MAC games.
— Last three games, WMU scored 14-16-9 points.
— 4 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 75 starts back on offensive line; new QB this year
— WMU’s freshman QB has thrown 7 TD’s, 10 INT’s.
— Broncos are 4-7 ATS last 11 games as a home favorite.
— WMU is 10-6 ATS last 16 games coming off a loss.
— Five of their last six games stayed under the total.

— Western Michigan won three of last four meetings.
— Huskies are 4-2 ATS in last six visits to Kalamazoo.
— Under is 6-3 in last nine series games.
— So far this year, MAC home favorites are 4-14-1 ATS.

Buffalo @ Central Michigan
Buffalo (5-4)
— Buffalo won five of last six games, after an 0-3 start.
— Last two games, Bulls gave up 436-474 total yards.
— Buffalo is 4-0 allowing 27 or less points, 1-4 if they allow 31+.
— 3 starters back on offense, 6 on defense
— 51 starts back on offensive line; soph QB had 6 starts at Rutgers
— Since 2017, Buffalo is 28-15-1 ATS in MAC games.
— Buffalo is 3-0 ATS as a road underdog this season.
— Last four games, Buffalo is +7 in turnovers.
— Under Linguist, Bulls are 3-7 ATS coming off a loss.

Central Michigan (3-6)
— Chippewas are 2-6 vs I-A teams, beating Akron/Northern Illinois.
— Five of their six losses are by 14+ points.
— CMU is minus-13 in turnovers this season.
— 7 starters back on offense, 4 on defense
— 69 starts back on offensive line; soph QB has 13 starts
— 23-19 SU last 3+ years, after going 1-11 in ’18.
— Chippewas are 8-2 ATS last 10 games as a home favorite.
— Chippewas are 17-13 ATS last 30 games coming off a win.
— Over is 5-3 in Chippewas’ last eight games.

— Buffalo won last two meetings, 43-20/34-24
— Teams haven’t met since 2019.
— Bulls covered two of last three visits to CMU.
— Last three series games went over the total.
— So far this year, MAC home favorites are 4-14-1 ATS.

Kent State @ Bowling Green
Kent State (3-6)
— Kent State lost three of its last four games.
— Golden Flashes allowed 430+ total yards in seven of eight I-A games.
— Last four games, Kent State ran ball for 229 yards/game.
— 4 starters back on offense, 6 on defense
— 24 starts back on offensive line.
— junior QB has 9 TD passes, 4 INT’s TY; he threw 24 passes LY
— You’re reading armadillosports.com
— Last 3+ years, they’re 20-20 SU; were 16-55 from ’13-‘18
— Kent is 4-1 ATS last five games as a road favorite (0-1 TY)
— Six of their last seven games stayed under the total.

Bowling Green (5-4)
— Falcons won last three games, giving up 13-18-9 points.
— Four of their five wins are by 4 or fewer points.
— 9 starters back on offense, 9 on defense
— 79 starts back on offensive line; senior QB has 17 starts
— have had six straight losing seasons (21-53 SU)
— Falcons are 6-3 ATS last nine games as home underdogs.
— Falcons are 6-3 ATS last nine games coming off a win.
— Under is 3-1 in Bowling Green’s last four games.

— Kent State won last four series games (3-1 ATS)
— Golden Flashes are 5-1 ATS in last six visits here.
— Under is 5-3 in last eight series games.
— Home underdogs are 9-6 ATS in MAC conference games.

 

[Udog]

If the Western Michigan Broncos don't win their final three games this season, Tim Lester will finish with a losing record for the first time in his six years at the helm of the program. Lester took over in Kalamazoo in 2017 after being one of the best quarterbacks in school history in the late 1990s. His offenses have tended to be pretty good, but the Broncos have one of the worst offenses in the MAC this season, ranking 120th in SP+.

Four different quarterbacks have thrown at least five passes for the Broncos this year as Lester tries to make anything work. Jack Salopek has been the starting quarterback for most of the season, but he was replaced by true freshman Treyson Bourguet two weeks ago. In his two starts, Bourguet has completed 32 of 60 passes for 314 yards (5.2 YPA) with a touchdown and an interception.

Northern Illinois has a worse record than Western Michigan, but the Huskies are a better team than the Broncos. Although they also have used four quarterbacks at different points, they have been able to move the ball with 29.3 PPG and 389.9 YPG. Rocky Lombardi and Ethan Hampton seem to be unlikely to play due to injury, so look for freshman Nevan Cremascoli to be the starter for the second straight week. Cremascoli completed under 40% of his passes in his first start, so the Huskies will look to keep the ball on the ground.

The Under is the best bet in this game given the inexperienced quarterbacks under center.



The Buffalo Bulls are looking to keep place with the Ohio Bobcats for first place in the MAC East Division. They will go on the road for the last time this season when they face the Central Michigan Chippewas on Wednesday night. Buffalo has won five of its last six games, but Central Michigan is the team favored to win here.

Daniel Richardson has looked great at times for Central Michigan. Richardson is completing 56.6% of his passes for 1,893 yards (6.2 YPA) with 15 touchdowns and five interceptions. That enabled this offense to perform well in non-conference games against Oklahoma State, Penn State, and South Alabama. Many expected him to thrive at the start of MAC play, but we haven't seen that come to fruition as he has struggled with his accuracy and hasn't been mobile in the pocket. Central Michigan is averaging under 4.0 YPC, so this offense needs Richardson to play well in order to move the chains.

Rutgers transfer Cole Snyder has showed some flashes during his first season with Buffalo. He wasn't great in last week's loss to Ohio, but he played a big role in the Bulls' five-game winnings streak. Additionally, the Bulls has a very good kicker in Alex McNulty, and he could prove to be a difference maker considering Bowling Green is making just 33.3% of its field goal attempts.



Despite losing to an FCS team, Bowling Green is one win away from bowl eligibility after winning four of its last five games. It hasn't been pretty for the Falcons though, as three of those four wins have been by four points or less. That has them ranked 119th overall in SP+ even though Matt McDonald has been one of the better quarterbacks in the MAC.

Sean Lewis has been able to shoot some life into Kent State's program with two bowl appearances in the last three seasons. The Golden Flashes will need to win their last three games to make a bowl this season though. They played an extremely difficult non-conference schedule with games against Washington, Oklahoma, and Georgia, and they were able to deal Ohio their lone loss in conference play. However, the defense has been porous, surrendering at least 27 points against all of Kent State's FBS opponents.

The Golden Flashes have an excellent running back in Marquez Cooper, and he should be able to move the chains against an undersized Bowling Green front seven. Conversely, the Falcons should be able to drop 27 points against this team, leading to the Over play.

 

[Cnotes53]

WEDNESDAY, NOVEMBER 9

NIU at WMU	07:00 PM	NIU -1.0 U 49.5	+500 +500
BUFF at CMU	07:00 PM	CMU -2.5 U 53.5	+500 +500
KENT at BGSU	07:00 PM	BGSU +2.5 U 55.0	+500 +500

 

[Cnotes53]

NOVEMBER'S CFB OPINIONS AND BEST BETS

11/09/2022...........................4-2-0..............................66.66%............. .........+ 9.00
11/05/2022.......................54-47-0.............................53.46%.............. ........+ 11.50
11/04/2022............................1-4-0.............................20.00%.............. .........- 17.00
11/03/2022............................2-2-0............................50.00%............... ........- 1.00
11/02/2022............................1-3-0............................25.00%............... .........- 11.50
11/01/2022............................2-2-0............................50.00%............... ........- 1.00

TOTALS...............................64-60-0............................51,61%............... . ........-10.00

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BEST BETS !

11/09/2022...........................3-1-0.............................75.00%.............. ...........+ 9.50
11/05/2022.......................26-18-0............................59.09%............... ..........+ 31.00
11/04/2022............................1-4-0............................20.00%............... ...........- 17.00
11/03/2022............................2-2-0............................50.00%............... ..........- 1.00
11/02/2022............................1-3-0............................25.00%............... .........- 11.50
11/01/2022............................2-2-0............................50.00%............... . ........- 1.00

TOTALS................................35-30-0.............................53.84%.............. ... .....+ 10.00

 

[Udog]

NCAAF
Weather Report

Week 11

 

[Udog]

College Football Betting Trends - Week 11
Bruce Marshall

 

[Cnotes53]

THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 10

TLSA at MEM	07:30 PM	TLSA +7.0 O 62.0	+500 +500
GASO at ULL	07:30 PM	GASO +3.5 U 63.0	+500 +500

 

[Cnotes53]

NOVEMBER'S CFB OPINIONS AND BEST BETS

11/10/2022...........................1-3-0..............................25.00%.......................- 11.50
11/09/2022...........................4-2-0..............................66.66%............. .........+ 9.00
11/05/2022.......................54-47-0.............................53.46%.............. ........+ 11.50
11/04/2022............................1-4-0.............................20.00%.............. .........- 17.00
11/03/2022............................2-2-0............................50.00%............... ........- 1.00
11/02/2022............................1-3-0............................25.00%............... .........- 11.50
11/01/2022............................2-2-0............................50.00%............... ........- 1.00

TOTALS............................65-63-0............................50.78%............... . ........-21.50

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BEST BETS !

11/10/2022...........................1-3-0.............................25.00%..........................-.11.50
11/09/2022...........................3-1-0.............................75.00%.............. ...........+ 9.50
11/05/2022.......................26-18-0............................59.09%............... ..........+ 31.00
11/04/2022............................1-4-0............................20.00%............... ..........- 17.00
11/03/2022............................2-2-0............................50.00%............... ...........- 1.00
11/02/2022............................1-3-0............................25.00%............... ..........- 11.50
11/01/2022............................2-2-0............................50.00%............... . .........- 1.00

TOTALS............................36-33-0............................52.17%.............. .... .......- 1.50

 

[Udog]

NCAAF
Weather Report

Week 11

 

[Udog]

East Carolina Pirates Betting Analysis

This is one of the better offenses in the AAC with fifth-year senior Holton Ahlers leading the way. Ahlers has started during his entire time in Greenville, giving him more experience than almost any quarterback in the country. He has improved with each year, and he is completing over 70% of his passes for 2,632 yards (8.3 YPA) with 18 touchdowns and five interceptions this season. Ahlers is 0-4 against Cincinnati in his career though with only one solid performance against the Bearcats back in 2019. In that game, Ahlers completed 32 of 52 passes for 535 yards with four touchdowns and an interception as the Pirates lost 46-43. However, Ahlers completed just 36 of 80 passes for 499 yards with two touchdowns and five interceptions in his other three starts against the Bearcats. Unsurprisingly, ECU lost those games by a combined 110 points.

Isaiah Winstead and C.J. Johnson have been the top receivers in this offense. Winstead is more of a possession receiver, while Johnson is a big play threat averaging 16.0 YPR with eight touchdowns. Keaton Mitchell has been one of the best running backs in the AAC, running for 863 yards and nine touchdowns while averaging 7.1 YPC. Mitchell has been instrumental in ECU's last three wins, running for 430 yards and six TDs in those victories. The Pirates are also one of the best teams in the country at moving the chains on third down, converting 50.4% of those opportunities.

East Carolina is pretty good at stopping the run. The Pirates are allowing 3.7 YPC this season, as their safeties aren't afraid to roll down into the box to make plays. However, they have one of the worst pass defenses in the country. They are allowing 8.9 YPA and 261.0 YPG through the air. ECU doesn't have a pass rusher that can consistently get to the quarterback, and opposing quarterbacks have been able to hit huge plays on this defense with time.

Cincinnati Bearcats Betting Analysis

This is a rebuilding year for Cincinnati given how much Luke Fickell and the Bearcats lost to the NFL Draft last spring. However, the Bearcats are still in contention to win the AAC with a 7-2 record in mid-November. They must win this game to stay in the hunt, and then they will host the currently unbeaten in AAC play Tulane Green Wave in their season finale.

The offense isn't as effective as it was last year under Desmond Ridder, but Ben Bryant hasn't done a terrible job after returning to the program following one year as the starting quarterback for Eastern Michigan. Bryant is completing 63.3% of his passes for 2,358 yards (7.9 YPA) with 18 touchdowns and six interceptions. He isn't the same mobile threat as Ridder, and that has led to this offense taking a hit.

Charles McClelland is the top running back in this offense, running for 727 yards and six touchdowns while averaging 6.4 YPC. Tyler Scott and Tre Tucker are the two big receiving threats, and they will be the keys to victory for the Bearcats in this game. If they (and especially Scott) can beat this secondary over the top, the Bearcats should be able to pick up the win.

Cincinnati has a very good defense once again. The Bearcats rank in the top 20 in Defensive SP+ even though they lost six starters from last year's defense to the NFL. They are allowing just 4.2 yards per play, and both the run defense and pass defense rank in the top 15 in the nation. Linebacker Ivan Pace Jr. leads the Bearcats with 96 tackles and eight sacks and should be a First Team All-AAC selection, while safety Ja'quan Sheppard has seven passes defensed. Few teams get to the quarterback more often than Cincinnati, as the Bearcats have 32 sacks in nine games.

 

[Udog]

E CAROLINA (6 - 3) at CINCINNATI (7 - 2) - 11/11/2022, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
E CAROLINA is 47-70 ATS (-30.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
E CAROLINA is 16-4 ATS (+11.6 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
CINCINNATI is 2-0 against the spread versus E CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
CINCINNATI is 2-0 straight up against E CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


COLORADO (1 - 8) at USC (8 - 1) - 11/11/2022, 9:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
USC is 1-0 against the spread versus COLORADO over the last 3 seasons
USC is 1-0 straight up against COLORADO over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


FRESNO ST (5 - 4) at UNLV (4 - 5) - 11/11/2022, 10:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
UNLV is 70-100 ATS (-40.0 Units) after playing a conference game since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
UNLV is 1-1 against the spread versus FRESNO ST over the last 3 seasons
FRESNO ST is 2-0 straight up against UNLV over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

 

[Cnotes53]

FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 11

ECU at CIN	08:00 PM	ECU +5.0 U 51.0	+500 +500
COLO at USC	09:30 PM	COLO +34.5 O 66.0	+500 +500
FRES at UNLV	10:30 PM	FRES -9.5 U 61.0	+500 +500

 

[Cnotes53]

NOVEMBER'S CFB OPINIONS AND BEST BETS

11/11/2022...........................2-4-0..............................33.33%........................- 12.00
11/10/2022...........................1-3-0..............................25.00%............. ..........- 11.50
11/09/2022...........................4-2-0..............................66.66%............. .........+ 9.00
11/05/2022.......................54-47-0.............................53.46%.............. ........+ 11.50
11/04/2022............................1-4-0.............................20.00%.............. .........- 17.00
11/03/2022............................2-2-0............................50.00%............... ........- 1.00
11/02/2022............................1-3-0............................25.00%............... .........- 11.50
11/01/2022............................2-2-0............................50.00%............... ........- 1.00

TOTALS............................67-67-0............................50.00%............... . ........-33.50

*****************************************

BEST BETS !

11/11/2022...........................2-4-0.............................33.33%...........................- 12.50
11/10/2022...........................1-3-0.............................25.00%.............. ............-.11.50
11/09/2022...........................3-1-0.............................75.00%.............. ...........+ 9.50
11/05/2022.......................26-18-0............................59.09%............... ..........+ 31.00
11/04/2022............................1-4-0............................20.00%............... ..........- 17.00
11/03/2022............................2-2-0............................50.00%............... ...........- 1.00
11/02/2022............................1-3-0............................25.00%............... ..........- 11.50
11/01/2022............................2-2-0............................50.00%............... . .........- 1.00

TOTALS............................38-37-0............................50.56%.............. .... .......- 14.00

 

[Udog]

NCAAF
Dunkel

Week 11

FCS

 

[Udog]

NCAAF
Weather Report

Week 11

 

[Udog]

TCU Horned Frogs Betting Analysis

Max Duggan has thrived in Sonny Dykes' system. Duggan was seen as an average quarterback under previous head coach Gary Patterson, but he has been one of the best signal callers in the nation in 2022 under Dykes. The senior is completing 66% of his passes for 2,407 yards (9.9 YPA) with 24 touchdowns and two interceptions on the year. His accuracy has taken a dip in recent weeks, but this is an extremely explosive offense with NFL prospect Quentin Johnston averaging 15.5 YPR and Taye Barber putting up 19.6 YPR.

Kendre Miller is one of 13 players that has eclipsed 1,000 yards on the ground this season, having run for 1,009 yards and 12 touchdowns. Miller is averaging 6.6 YPC, and he has run for at least 100 yards in each of his last four starts. This combination of a great aerial attack with a solid ground game has TCU ranked 5th in Offensive SP+.

Unfortunately, the Horned Frogs are ranked 47th in Defensive SP+ as this side of the ball is not as reliable as it was under Patterson. TCU is allowing 28.1 PPG and 408.9 YPG, ranking in the bottom half of the NCAA in those categories. Linebacker Dee Winters is TCU's leader with 6.5 sacks, while Josh Newton, Abraham Camara, and Tre'Vius Hodges-Tomlinson each have at least five passes defensed.
Despite owning a worse record, the Texas Longhorns are favored over unbeaten TCU. (Getty)

Texas Longhorns Betting Analysis

Quinn Ewers came to Texas with a lot of hype. He has shown that he has the potential to be a first-round pick in 2024, but he has also struggled with consistency. Ewers was not good in Texas' loss to Oklahoma State, completing 38.8% of his passes with two touchdowns and three interceptions. He was better in last week's win over Kansas State, but he completed just 58.1% of his passes and didn't have a completion of longer than 21 yards.

That's why this offense still runs through star running back Bijan Robinson. He is currently sixth in FBS in rushing yards, as he has run for 1,129 yards and 12 touchdowns while averaging 5.9 YPC. Robinson has seven straight games of 100 yards or more, and he exploded against Kansas State with 209 yards and a touchdown. The only knock on Robinson is that he isn't much of a receiver out of the backfield.

The Longhorns are still having problems on defense even though Steve Sarkisian thought this unit would be much better in 2022. Texas ranks 21st in Defensive SP+, and the front seven has been very good, conceding just 3.4 YPC. However, the Longhorns don't create a lot of havoc, ranking outside the top 90 in turnover percentage and sack rate. That has the potential to really hurt Texas if they can't knock TCU off schedule.




UCF Knights Betting Analysis

It sounds like John Rhys Plumlee is ready to return to action this week. Plumlee suffered a concussion in the first half against Cincinnati two weeks ago, leading to Mikey Keene taking over for UCF. Keene was very good against Cincinnati and Memphis, completing 37 of 49 passes for 395 yards with three touchdowns and an interception in those two games. Many were hoping that Keene would still be the starting quarterback even after Plumlee was healthy again, but Gus Malzahn appears set to start the Ole Miss transfer. Plumlee is more of a running threat than a passing threat, and he leads the team with 532 rushing yards and seven touchdowns.

UCF runs the ball very well in Malzahn's system. The Knights are averaging 5.2 YPC and are picking up 232.8 YPG on the ground. Plumlee can be electric with his legs, while R.J. Harvey is a home run threat averaging 7.4 YPC and Isaiah Bowser is a bruiser that can pick up tough yards between the tackles. Ryan O'Keefe is the main receiver, but Javon Baker and Kobe Hudson aren't far behind.

The Knights have the ultimate 'bend, but don't break' defense. They rank 16th in scoring defense (19.9 PPG) and 77th in total defense (395.3 YPG). UCF has the third-best fourth down defense in the nation, and no team has been better in the red zone. Opponents have only found points on 61.8% of their trips inside UCF's 20-yard line. Tre'mon Morris-Brash leads the Knights with five sacks, and Divaad Wilson has three interceptions on the season. Cornerback Davonte Brown is a shut-down corner that will be playing on Sundays next season.
UCF is 1-5 ATS in their last six matchups against Tulane. (Getty)

Tulane Green Wave Betting Analysis

Michael Pratt is completing 66.7% of his passes for 1,843 yards (8.7 YPA) with 14 touchdowns and four interceptions this season. Pratt has been a solid signal caller for the Green Wave, and he is the second leading rusher on the team in Willie Fritz's modified option offense. No one has more than 25 receptions or 400 receiving yards though as Pratt spreads the ball around pretty evenly.

The Green Wave have one of the top running backs in the AAC in Tyjae Spears. He has run for 745 yards and 10 touchdowns while averaging 5.6 YPC for Tulane. Spears has exploded in wins over USF, Memphis, and Tulsa in his last three games, and he hopes to keep it going against UCF on Saturday.

Tulane has the 27th ranked defense in the country per SP+. The Green Wave are allowing just 19.0 PPG and 332.1 YPG, ranking in the top 25 nationally in both categories. Dorian Williams leads the team in tackles and sacks, and three different players have multiple interceptions on this defense. Macon Clark and Larry Brooks are both disruptive safeties that can make plays and force their opponents into making mistakes.

UCF is 4-1 ATS in their last five games.
The total has gone UNDER in six of UCF's last eight games.
UCF is 6-1 SU in their last seven games.
Tulane is 5-0 ATS in their last five games.
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Tulane's last 14 games.
Tulane is 5-0 SU in their last five games.
The total has gone UNDER in four of Tulane's last six games against UCF.
Tulane is 5-1 ATS in their last six home games.
UCF is 1-5 ATS in their last six games against Tulane.
UCF is 7-1 SU in their last eight games against Tulane.




Alabama Crimson Tide Betting Analysis

It appears that Alabama will miss out on the College Football Playoff for just the second time. The Crimson Tide lost close games on the road against Tennessee and LSU, and they now need the Tigers to lose two of their last three games in order to win the SEC West. They came close to losing to both Texas and Texas A&M too, as this is not your typical dominant Crimson Tide squad.

Reigning Heisman Trophy winner Bryce Young has looked like the No. 1 overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. Young has been excellent even though he doesn't have great receivers this season, completing 62.9% of his passes for 2,234 yards (8.2 YPA) with 19 touchdowns and four interceptions. Ja'Corey Brooks (16.9 YPR) and Jermaine Burton (14.8 YPR) have been the big play threats, while Kobe Prentice is the underneath receiver.

Georgia Tech transfer Jahmyr Gibbs has been excellent for Alabama this season. Gibbs has run for 771 yards and six touchdowns, and he is averaging 6.8 YPC. He has also been more of a pass catching threat than anyone figured he would be, as he has 39 receptions for 365 yards and three touchdowns.

Alabama's defense is ranked 9th in Defensive SP+. The Crimson Tide are allowing 18.3 PPG and 303.6 YPG, and the run defense has been excellent. Linebacker Will Anderson Jr. leads the team with seven sacks, and Henry To'o To'o has been a sure tackler in the middle of the defense. Kool-Aid McKinstry has 12 passes defensed, but we haven't seen the Crimson Tide force turnovers like they have in previous years. They have just three interceptions and three fumble recoveries, so Alabama ranks 126th nationally in takeovers.
Alabama is 7-1 SU in their last eight road games against Ole Miss. (Getty)

Ole Miss Rebels Betting Analysis

This was expected to be a rebuilding year for Ole Miss, but the Rebels have outperformed all expectations to get to 8-1. Their only loss was on the road against LSU, and they already knocked off Kentucky, Auburn, and Texas A&M. That has led to rumors of Lane Kiffin perhaps moving on to Auburn, as he has now proven he can win in the competitive SEC West.

USC transfer Jaxson Dart has performed well in this offense, completing 61.1% of his passes for 8.8 YPA with 14 touchdowns and seven interceptions. Jonathan Mingo is the top target and is averaging 22.1 YPR, but the Rebels don't throw nearly as much as they did with Matt Corral under center, as Kiffin has adapted his offense to better fit his personnel.

Quinshon Judkins is one of the top running backs in the SEC, running for 1,036 yards and 13 touchdowns while averaging 5.8 YPC. Judkins ran for 205 yards and a touchdown two weeks ago against Texas A&M, and he has run for over 100 yards in five of his last six games. Zach Evans has done an excellent job as the second running back in this system, picking up 680 yards and seven touchdowns while averaging 6.3 YPC. Dart is a dangerous runner too, averaging more than 6.0 YPC once you account for sacks.

The Rebels have been much better on defense than they have been in the recent past. They rank 31st in Defensive SP+, and they do a good job of getting to the quarterback with 25 sacks on the season. Safety A.J. Finley is someone to watch for Ole Miss.

Alabama is 15-3 SU in their last 18 games.
Alabama is 6-0 SU in their last six games against Ole Miss.
Ole Miss is 1-4-1 ATS in their last six games.
The total has gone OVER in four of Mississippi's last five games.
Ole Miss is 8-1 SU in their last nine games.
The total has gone OVER in five of Mississippi's last seven games against Alabama.
Ole Miss is 14-0 SU in their last 14 home games.
Alabama is 16-4 SU in their last 20 road games.
Alabama is 7-1 SU in their last eight road games against Mississippi.