NCAAF
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Week 12
NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up
Week 12
Wednesday night
Eastern Michigan @ Kent State
Eastern Michigan (6-4)
— Eagles won their last four road games, scoring 32.3 ppg.
— Eagles gave up 39+ points in three of their four losses.
— Last three games, EMU is +6 in turnovers.
— 8 starters back on offense, 6 on defense
— 123 starts back on offensive line.
— senior QB has 6 starts; one at Missouri, 5 at Troy
— EMU is 5-2 ATS last seven games as a road underdog.
— Eagles are 4-8 ATS in last 12 games coming off a win.
— Three of their last four games stayed under the total.
Kent State (3-6)
— Kent State lost three of its last four games.
— Golden Flashes allowed 430+ total yards in seven of eight I-A games.
— Last four games, Kent State ran ball for 229 yards/game.
— 4 starters back on offense, 6 on defense
— 24 starts back on offensive line.
— junior QB has 9 TD passes, 4 INT’s TY; he threw 24 passes LY
— Last 3+ years, they’re 20-20 SU; were 16-55 from ’13-‘18
— Kent is 4-1 ATS last five games as a road favorite (0-1 TY)
— Six of their last seven games stayed under the total.
— Kent State won six of last seven meetings.
— EMU is 3-3 ATS in its last six visits to Kent.
— Under is 6-2 in last eight series games.
— MAC home favorites are 5-15-1 ATS this season.
Miami OH @ Northern Illinois
Miami OH (4-6)
— Miami is 1-6 vs I-A teams if it scores less than 27 points.
— Red Hawks lost three of their last four games.
— Last four games, Miami ran ball 120 times for 334 yards.
— 9 starters back on offense, 5 on defense
— 72 starts back on offensive line; junior QB 25 starts
— Miami is 5-10 ATS last 15 games as a road underdog.
— Red Hawks are 14-12 ATS in last 26 games as an underdog.
— Miami is 9-3 ATS in last 12 games coming off a loss.
— Under is 8-1 in their I-A games this season.
Northern Illinois (3-7)
— Huskies are 2-7 vs I-A teams, splitting last four games.
— NIU allowed 31+ points in six of their seven losses.
— Last three games, Huskies threw for only 131 yards/game.
— They ran for 200+ yards in four of last six games.
— 9 starters back on offense, 9 on defense
— 90 starts back on offensive line
— senior QB has 22 starts, 13 of them at Michigan State
— 6-11 ATS last 17 games as a home favorite (0-2 TY).
— 14-17 ATS last 31 games coming off a win.
— Under is 3-1 in their last four games.
— Miami won last two meetings, 27-24/13-7; teams last met in 2019.
— Red Hawks covered their last four visits to DeKalb.
— Three of last four series games went over the total.
— MAC home favorites are 5-15-1 ATS this season.
Western Michigan @ Central Michigan
Western Michigan (3-7)
— Broncos are 2-7 vs I-A teams, 2-4 in MAC games.
— Two of their three wins came on the road.
— WMU lost its last two games, by 4-3 points.
— 4 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 75 starts back on offensive line; new QB this year
— WMU’s freshman QB has thrown 7 TD’s, 10 INT’s.
— Broncos are 3-7 ATS last 10 games as a road underdog.
— WMU is 9-7 ATS last 16 games coming off a loss.
— Six of their last seven games stayed under the total.
Central Michigan (4-6)
— Chippewas won three of their last four games.
— Five of their six losses are by 14+ points.
— Chippewas ran ball for 245-303 yards last two games.
— CMU is minus-13 in turnovers this season.
— 7 starters back on offense, 4 on defense
— 69 starts back on offensive line; soph QB has 13 starts
— 24-19 SU last 3+ years, after going 1-11 in ’18.
— Chippewas are 8-5 ATS last 13 games as home faves (1-3 TY).
— Chippewas are 18-13 ATS last 31 games coming off a win.
— Over is 3-0 in Chippewas’ last three games.
— Western Michigan won six of last eight series games.
— Broncos covered their last five visits to CMU.
— Over is 5-2 in last seven meetings.
— MAC home favorites are 5-15-1 ATS this season.
Sean Lewis and the
Kent State Golden Flashes are looking to become bowl eligible for the third straight non-COVID shortened season. Lewis led Kent State to seven wins and a bowl appearance in 2019 and 2021, but the Golden Flashes are just 4-6 headed into this game. They shredded Bowling Green by 34 points last week, leading to Kent State being more than a touchdown favorite by the college football betting odds on Wednesday.
Kent State is ranked 73rd in Offensive SP+. Running back Marquez Cooper is one of the top rushers in the conference with 1,106 yards (4.7 YPC) and nine touchdowns. Dante Cephas and Devontez Walker are the two top receivers in this offense averaging over 15.0 YPR apiece, while Collin Schlee has had a nice season under center for this team. Eastern Michigan's defense is allowing just 5.3 yards per play though, as this secondary has been solid.
Austin Smith might be the starting quarterback for
Eastern Michigan as he got the start in last week's win over Akron in place of transfer Taylor Powell. Smith isn't as good of a passer as Powell, but he is a much better runner, and he is the future of the team as a sophomore. Whoever is under center should be able to keep this game within the number though given Eastern Michigan's defensive prowess.
The only thing the
Northern Illinois Huskies can do at this point of the season is to play spoiler. They are 3-7 and eliminated from bowl contention, but that didn't stop them from going on the road to knock off Western Michigan last week. However, the quarterback situation is dismal to say the least as four different players have thrown at least 20 passes for the Huskies. Nevan Cremascoli got the start last time out, but he completed just 8 of 17 passes for 133 yards with a touchdown and three interceptions.
Northern Illinois wants to keep the ball on the ground, but
Miami (OH) has one of the best defenses in the conference. The RedHawks are allowing just 3.5 YPC, and they can make plays with 25 sacks, 11 forced fumbles, and seven interceptions on the season. Brett Gabbert has made this offense much better since his return too, giving the RedHawks some bit on offense. Gabbert was one of the top quarterbacks in the MAC in 2021, and he is completing 64.3% of his passes for 7.1 YPA with four touchdowns and no interceptions in four starts this year.
The
Western Michigan Broncos have won eight of their last 11 games against the Central Michigan Chippewas. However, Central Michigan looks to be the better team this year and appears likely to win consecutive games in this series for the first time in 12 years. The Chips have won three of their last four games to keep their postseason hopes alive, and they came back from a 17-point deficit to beat Buffalo last week.
Daniel Richardson is the nominal starting quarterback for
Central Michigan, but we saw Bert Emanuel Jr. do a lot last week, carrying the ball 24 times for 293 yards and three touchdowns. We are likely to see a good amount of Emanuel this week given that success, yet Richardson is still penciled in as the starter.
Treyson Bourguet has been the starting quarterback for Western Michigan since Jack Salopek threw five interceptions in a loss to Ohio a few weeks ago. Bourguet isn't very accurate, and he doesn't run the ball very effectively, putting the clamps on this offense. The Broncos' last three games have all had 45 total points or less given the limitations of Bourguet, so the Under remains a strong play.
