NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up
Week 1
Saturday’s games
Clemson vs Georgia (-13.5) (@ Atlanta)
Clemson was 9-4 LY, their worst season since going 6-7 in 2010.
Tigers have 9 starters back on offense, 5 on defense.
Tigers have 106 returning starts on offensive line.
Junior QB Klubnik has 14 career starts.
Last ten years, Clemson is 3-3 ATS as an underdog.
Since 2018, Tigers are 11-18 ATS outside the ACC.
Since 2019, Tigers are 3-2 ATS in their season opener.
Last ten years, Clemson is 16-7 ATS on neutral fields.
Last seven years, Georgia is 86-11 SU, 54-42-1 ATS.
Dawgs have 7 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
Georgia has 87 returning starts on offensive line.
Junior QB Beck started 14 games LY.
Last two years, Georgia is 3-7-1 ATS in non-league games.
Last two years, Dawgs are 8-12-2 ATS as a favorite.
Last ten years, Georgia is 21-11 ATS on neutral fields.
Georgia is 5-5 SU/ATS in last 10 games on this field.
Georgia won four of last five meetings.
Dawgs (+3) won last meeting 10-3 on a neutral field in 2021.
Last year, ACC teams were 7-3 ATS against SEC opponents.
Penn State (-8.5) @ West Virginia
Last two years, Penn State was 11-2/10-3 SU, 18-7-1 ATS.
Nittany Lions have 6 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
Penn State has 45 returning starts on the offensive line.
Junior QB Allar started 13 games last year.
Under Franklin, Penn State is 51-34-3 ATS as a favorite.
Under Franklin, Penn State is 19-12 ATS as a road favorite.
Last two years, Nittany Lions are +27 in turnovers in 26 games.
Before LY, last series game was in 1992; this used to be huge rivalry.
WVU was 9-4 last year, their best season since 2016.
Mountaineers have 8 starters back on offense, 5 on defense.
Mountaineers have 113 returning starts on offensive line.
Senior QB Greene has 14 career starts.
Since 2016, WVU is 6-9-1 ATS as a home underdog.
In his career, Brown is 25-22 ATS as an underdog.
Last two years, WVU was 6-1 ATS in non-conference games.
Last 3 years, Mountaineers are 0-3 SU/1-2 ATS in season openers.
Penn State (-20) beat West Virginia 38-15 LY, throwing for 332 yards.
Last three years, Big X teams were 7-4 ATS vs Big 18 opponents.
Miami (-2.5) @ Florida
Last two years, Miami was 5-7/7-6 SU, a combined 8-17 ATS
Miami has 10 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
Hurricanes have 121 returning starts on the offensive line.
Senior QB Ward has 25 career starts; he bolted from Washington State.
Since 2019, Hurricanes are 4-7 ATS as a road favorite.
In his career, Cristobal is 15-11-2 ATS as a road favorite.
Since 2015, Miami 10-18 ATS in non-league games.
This is Miami’s first visit to the Swamp since 2008.
Last three years, Gators were 6-7/6-7/5-7.
Six years before that, Gators were 52-24; the natives are restless.
Florida has 8 starters back on offense, 6 on defense.
Gators have 80 returning starts on the offensive line.
Senior QB Mertz has 43 career starts, 32 at Wisconsin.
Last three years, Florida is 14-23-1 ATS.
In his career, Napier is 18-7-1 ATS as an underdog, 5-2 at home.
Since 2018, Gators are 5-2 ATS as a home underdog.
Florida is 5-14-1 ATS in its last 20 non-conference games.
Miami won five of last seven series games.
Underdogs are 4-1 ATS in last five series games.
Last meeting was in 2019.
Last four series games stayed under the total.
Last year, ACC teams were 7-3 ATS against SEC opponents.
Boise State (-13) @ Georgia Southern
Broncos fired their coach LY after a 5-5 start, won 4 of last 5 games.
Boise has 6 starters back on offense, all 11 on defense.
Broncos have 66 starts returning on the offensive line.
Soph QB Madsen (132 pass attempts LY) will start at QB
Last four years, Broncos are 6-6-1 ATS as a road favorite.
Boise is 2-7-1 ATS in last eight non-conference games.
Broncos are 8-2 ATS in last ten road openers.
Last three years, Boise is 0-3 SU/1-2 ATS in season openers.
Georgia Southern was 6-7/6-7 in Helton’s first two years as HC.
GSU has 5 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
Eagles have 50 returning starts on offensive line.
Soph QB/new starter French threw only 16 passes LY.
Under Helton, GSU is 6-4 ATS in non-league games.
Since 2018, Eagles are 8-6 ATS as a home underdog.
In his career, Helton is 4-3 ATS as a home underdog.
In his career, Helton is 25-20 ATS in home games.
These teams have never met.
Since 2016, Mountain West teams are 14-7-2 ATS vs Sun Belt opponents.
UNLV @ Houston (-1)
Rebels lost last three games LY, after a 9-2 start.
UNLV has 5 starters back on offense, 6 on defense.
Rebels have 79 starts returning on offensive line.
Their QB bolted to USC; they brought in two I-AA QB’s, also have Friel, who started eight games for UNLV in 2021.
Last year was UNLV’s first bowl game since 2013.
In his career, Odom is 6-7 ATS as a road dog, 3-0 at UNLV.|L
ast three years, Rebels are 11-3 ATS as a road underdog.
Since 2018, UNLV is 16-5 ATS in non-league games.
Willie Fritz is the new coach after LY’s 4-8 season.
Houston has 5 starters back on offense, 5 on defense.
Cougars have 118 returning starts on OL, only 30 of them at Houston.
Senior QB Smith has 20 career starts.
Last three years, Houston is 3-9 ATS as a home favorite.
Last four years, Houston was 6-8-1 ATS in non-conference games.
In his career, Fritz is 38-24 ATS in home games.
Cougars better not look ahead; they play Oklahoma next week.
These teams haven’t met since 2014.
Notre Dame @ Texas A&M (-3)
Since 2017, Notre Dame is 73-17 SU (25-13-1 ATS last 3 years)
Irish have 6 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
Notre Dame has 34 returning starts on offensive line.
Senior QB Leonard started 21 games at Duke.
Under Freeman, Notre Dame is 4-1-1 ATS as an underdog.
Last ten years, Notre Dame is 13-6-1 ATS as an underdog.
Last five years, Notre Dame is 4-1 SU/1-3-1 ATS in season openers.
Notre Dame is 19-8-1 ATS in their last 28 road games.
A&M went 5-7/7-6 last two years; they told the coach to take a hike.
Aggies have 9 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
A&M has 112 returning starts on offensive line.
Soph QB Weigman has 8 career starts.
Since 2018, A&M is 19-13 ATS as home favorite.
In his 2 years at Duke, new HC Elko was 7-2 ATS as home favorite.
Last seven years, Aggies are 18-10-1 ATS in non-league games.
Elko was defensive coordinator at Notre Dame in 2017
These teams haven’t met since 2001.
James Madison (-6.5) @ Charlotte
Last six years, JMU was 6-14; their coach bolted to Indiana.
Dukes have 5 starters back on offense, 3 on defense.
Dukes have 64 returning starts on offensive line.
Senior QB Morris started 15 games at Washington in 2020-21.
New coach was 88-37 the last eight years, at I-AA level.
Last two years, JMU was 6-2 ATS as a road favorite.
Last three years, JMU was 13-9 ATS in non-conference games.
Last three years, JMU has +29 turnover ratio in 38 games.
Last three years, Charlotte was 5-7/5-7/3-9 SU (16-19-1 ATS)
Charlotte has 7 starters back on offense, 5 on defense.
49ers have 66 returning starts on offensive line.
Soph QB Brown started one game at Florida.
Last three years, Charlotte is 3-9 ATS as home underdogs.
49ers are 5-14-1 ATS in their last 20 home games.
Charlotte is 13-20 ATS in its last 33 non-conference games.
Under Poggi, 49ers were 6-5 ATS as an underdog LY.
These teams haven’t met at the I-A level.
Last four years, Sun Belt squads are 14-7 ATS vs AAC opponents.
Wyoming @ Arizona State (-6.5)
Wyoming went 9-4 last year, but their coach retired.
Cowboys have 6 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
Wyoming has 68 starts returning on offensive line.
Junior QB started one game last year, was 23-38 passing for season.
Since 2018, Wyoming is 8-12 ATS as a road underdog.
Cowboys are 12-8 ATS in last 20 games as an underdog.
Since 2019, Wyoming is 11-7-2 ATS in non-league games.
New coach Sawvel was DC at Wyoming from 2019-22.
Last two years, Sun Devils went 3-9/3-9 SU, 5-7/6-6 ATS
ASU has 6 starters back on offense, 4 on defense.
Sun Devils have 57 returning starts on the offensive line.
Senior QB Bourguet started 6 games; they added a transfer QB from Michigan State and another QB who started 25 games at Georgia Tech/Nebraska.
Since 2017, ASU is 8-15 ATS as an home favorite.
Overall. ASU is 4-9 ATS in last 13 games as a favorite.
Since 2017, Sun Devils are 5-16-1 ATS in non-league games.
Last two years, ASU was minus-17 in turnovers, in 24 games.
These teams haven’t met in this century; last meeting, 1977.
Last two years, Pac-12 teams were 14-7 ATS vs Mountain West teams.
Pac-12 doesn’t exist anymore, but you get the point.
