Cnotes College Hoops Picks,Trends News 2018-2918 !

[Cnotes53]

NCAAB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Wednesday, March 20

Wednesday?s play-in games
North Carolina Central is in NCAA?s for 4th time in six years; they?re 0-2 in play-in games, losing by 4-18 points the last two years. Eagles finished in 6th place in MEAC this year, worst league in country- they turn ball over 22.9% of time- they?re #15 experience team that won eight of its last ten games. North Dakota State makes 36.8% of its 3?s, getting 40.3% of their points on 3?s- they?re experience team #277; Bison are in NCAAs for first time in four years- they?re not a good defensive team, with #305 eFG% on defense.

Arizona State beat St John?s 82-70 LY at Staples Center; ASU won six of last eight games overall; they get 22.3% of their points on foul line. St John?s subs play minutes #347, so they better not get in foul trouble. Hurley is 0-2 in NCAA?s as a head coach; this is Mullin?s first NCAA game as a coach. Johnnies started season 12-0, playing the #327 non-conference schedule, then went 9-12 in last 21 games- they beat Pac-12 cellar dweller Cal 82-79. Neither team subs very much. Last four years, Big East teams are 20-8 against Pac-12 opponents.

Wednesday?s other tournament games
Motivation is the main variable in these ?other? tournaments; I?ll give you some stats and some knowledge, but these games are really tough to decipher from the outside.

Toledo won five of its last six games, got upset in first MAC tourney game; Rockets are #86 experience team that gets 38.5% of its points behind the arc. Toledo is 1-2 vs top 100 teams this year, losing twice to Buffalo, by 30-6 points- they beat Cal-Irvine. Xavier won by 27-21 in its two games vs MAC teams this season; they?re experience team #120 that won 7 of its last 9 games.

Norfolk State was 2-10 in its pre-conference schedule, with three other non-D-I wins; they lost by 19 to Michigan, 17 to South Carolina- they?re experience team #78 that turns ball over 20.6% of the time. Alabama lost seven of its last ten games; they?re experience team #208 that was 9-3 in its pre-conference schedule. Tide won by 20-8-10 points in its three non-top 200 games.

Harvard lost Ivy title game to arch-rival Yale Sunday afternoon; quick turnaround here for #258 experience team that beat Saint Mary?s but lost by 20 to North Carolina. Crimson turns ball over 22.3% of time. Georgetown was 10-3 in its pre-conference games, is 5-6 in its last 11 games; they?re experience team #263 that plays pace #23- they haven?t played since Thursday.

Sam Houston State won Southland by two games but lost in its first tourney game; Bearkats are #28 experience team that lost to Clemson by 15, Georgia by 11- they force turnovers 21.4% of time. TCU was disappointed not to make NCAA?s; they lost several players during year- their bench plays minutes #321. Horned Frogs lost seven of last ten games. Their motivation is a ?

Rumors are strong that Nebraska will fire coach Miles as soon as the Huskers lose in this event; how long will they stay? Nebraska beat Big East?s Seton Hall by 23, Creighton by 19 back in the fall, when Huskers had high hopes. Butler lost five of its last six games, despite being experience team #117- they play a slow (#260) pace, lost by 3 to Indiana in their only Big 14 game.

Long trip east for Dan Majerle?s Grand Canyon team, which is 20-13, 12-7 in WAC; Antelopes are experience team #99 that lost by 8 to Nevada, 7 to Seton Hall, 9 to Utah, 38 to Texas- they lost WAC final Saturday. West Virginia is young team with 14-20 record; they were 4-3 in last seven games after they ran couple guys off the team? this is prep work for next season.

Central Michigan is 23-11, losing MAC semis by 4 to Buffalo; Chippewas are experience team #27 that played a horrible (#346) pre-conference schedule. CMU shot 38.3% on arc, best in league, 46.9% inside arc, worst in MAC. DePaul is 15-15, but 7-1 against teams outside top 100; Blue Demons lost six of their last eight games- they?re experience team #79.

Howard lost by 21 to Little Rock, by 14 to Appalachian State, two Sun Belt teams; Bison are #313 experience team that plays pace #32- they?re 3-8 outside the MEAC. Coastal Carolina lost seven of last ten games after starting 6-3 in Sun Belt; Chanticleers are experience team #195 that beat NC Central by 4, their only MEAC opponent. CCU turn ball over 20.2% of time (#290).

Stony Brook?s coach has already bolted to Ohio U; Seawolves are 24-8 despite being experience team #305- they split last six games, are 12-3 outside America East (#257 non-conf schedule). /South Florida lost seven of its last eight D-I games; Bulls are experience team #328 that turns ball over 22.9% of time- they also force turnovers 22.2% of time- they shoot only 32.7% on arc.

Cal-Baptist is in its first year of D-I basketball, so they?re fired up to be playing; Lancers lost by 3 at Tulsa, lost by 3 at Cal-Irvine, 35 at Nevada- they?re experience team #174 that lost four of its last six games. LMU is 20-11, its first winning season in seven years; Lions are 10-2 outside WCC, beating UNLV, Georgetown- they force turnovers 21.2% of time (#40).

UAB comes north after winning six of last nine games; Blazers are experience team #188 that plays slow (#307) pace- they won three of their last four true road games. UAB is only 6-5 outside C-USA (#305 non-conf schedule). Brown is 19-11 but didn?t make 4-team Ivy tourney after going 7-7. Bears are experience team #177 that forces turnovers 21.4% of time (#34).

Texas Southern won at Baylor/Oregon before Christmas, but was 3-8 in pre-SWAC games, with two other non-D-I wins; they lost by 8 at Lamar in their only Southland game. TSU is #5 experience team that plays pace #4. New Orleans lost in Southland final; they?re experience team #246 that forces turnovers 22.6% of time (#17).

Grambling is 3-7 outside SWAC; they?re shooting 39.7% on arc (#6). Tigers are experience team #60 that subs a lot (bench minutes #45) but turns ball over 22.2% of time. Rio Grande Valley won eight of last 11 games; they beat SWAC champ Prairie View by 13 in November. Vaqueros are #72 experience team but have #334 eFG%, shooting 31% on arc, 45.8% inside arc.

Green Bay is 7-4 in its last 11 games; they?re #103 experience team that plays pace #12- they beat Belmont back in December. Phoenix split their last four road games. East Tennessee State won four of last six games but lost to Wofford in SoCon semis; Bucs are experience team #257 that is 7-4 outside SoCon. ETSU?s opponents shoot 38.8% on the arc (#344).

Long trip west for Presbyterian squad that is experience team #286- they went 9-7 in Big South. Blue Hose is shooting 38% on arc (#28) they get 41.4% of their points on arc; they?re not a good defensive team. Seattle won five of its last seven games; their last two wins were in OT; they?re experience team #212 who are 10-3 outside the WAC (non-conf #342).

Southern Miss won 12 of its last 17 games; they?re experience team #22 that is 3rd-shortest team in country. Eagles won four of their last six true road games. Longwood lost eight of its last ten games, is 15-17; they?re experience team #70 that lost 42-39 to Charlotte, the worst team in C-USA. Lancers turn ball over 20.9% of time; they went 5-11 in Big South.

Wichita State won 11 of its last 14 games, four of last five true road games. Shockers are #274 experience team that lost by 3 to Cincinnati in AAC semis; their eFG% is #325 but they?re riding star McDuffie?s scoring. Furman won nine of its last 11 games; they?re shooting 56.9% inside arc. Paladins won at Villanova in November, then went 13-5 in an improved SoCon.

 

[Cnotes53]

NCAAB
Dunkel

Wednesday, March 20


NC Central @ North Dakota St

Game 715-716
March 20, 2019 @ 6:40 pm

Dunkel Rating:
NC Central
45.896
North Dakota St
49.425
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
North Dakota St
by 3 1/2
127
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
North Dakota St
by 5 1/2
134 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
NC Central
(+5 1/2); Under

Arizona State @ St John's

Game 713-714
March 20, 2019 @ 9:10 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Arizona State
59.444
St John's
60.881
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
St John's
by 1 1/2
157
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Arizona State
by 1 1/2
154
Dunkel Pick:
St John's
(+1 1/2); Over

Presbyterian @ Seattle

Game 755-756
March 20, 2019 @ 10:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Presbyterian
52.758
Seattle
51.757
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Presbyterian
by 1
142
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Seattle
by 5
149
Dunkel Pick:
Presbyterian
(+5); Under

Loyola Marymount @ Cal Baptist

Game 745-746
March 20, 2019 @ 10:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Loyola Marymount
52.342
Cal Baptist
57.207
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Cal Baptist
by 5
136
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Loyola Marymount
by 1 1/2
140
Dunkel Pick:
Cal Baptist
(+1 1/2); Under

Butler @ Nebraska

Game 727-728
March 20, 2019 @ 9:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Butler
58.793
Nebraska
66.337
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Nebraska
by 7 1/2
150
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Nebraska
by 5 1/2
143 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Nebraska
(-5 1/2); Over

Sam Houston St @ TCU

Game 725-726
March 20, 2019 @ 9:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Sam Houston St
57.477
TCU
67.030
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
TCU
by 9 1/2
154
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
TCU
by 14
146
Dunkel Pick:
Sam Houston St
(+14); Over

Central Michigan @ DePaul

Game 739-740
March 20, 2019 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Central Michigan
56.992
DePaul
65.800
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
DePaul
by 9
173
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
DePaul
by 5
166
Dunkel Pick:
DePaul
(-5); Over

Texas Southern @ New Orleans

Game 749-750
March 20, 2019 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Texas Southern
44.894
New Orleans
48.455
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New Orleans
by 3 1/2
161
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New Orleans
by 1 1/2
159
Dunkel Pick:
New Orleans
(-1 1/2); Over

Grambling @ TX-Rio Grande

Game 751-752
March 20, 2019 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Grambling
41.238
TX-Rio Grande
55.290
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
TX-Rio Grande
by 14
141
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
TX-Rio Grande
by 10
144
Dunkel Pick:
TX-Rio Grande
(-10); Under

Green Bay @ E Tenn State

Game 753-754
March 20, 2019 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Green Bay
51.275
E Tenn State
56.978
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
E Tenn State
by 5 1/2
157
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
E Tenn State
by 11
155 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Green Bay
(+11); Over

Southern Miss @ Longwood

Game 887-888
March 20, 2019 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Southern Miss
60.748
Longwood
43.946
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Southern Miss
by 17
132
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Southern Miss
by 10 1/2
136 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Southern Miss
(-10 1/2); Under

UAB @ Brown

Game 747-748
March 20, 2019 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
UAB
56.835
Brown
54.470
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
UAB
by 2 1/2
150
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Brown
by 2 1/2
138 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
UAB
(+2 1/2); Over

Stony Brook @ South Florida

Game 743-744
March 20, 2019 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Stony Brook
54.541
South Florida
59.021
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
South Florida
by 4 1/2
132
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
South Florida
by 6 1/2
139
Dunkel Pick:
Stony Brook
(+6 1/2); Under

Howard @ Coastal Carolina

Game 741-742
March 20, 2019 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Howard
43.920
Coastal Carolina
48.382
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Coastal Carolina
by 4 1/2
170
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Coastal Carolina
by 12 1/2
162 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Howard
(+12 1/2); Over

Grand Canyon @ West Virginia

Game 737-738
March 20, 2019 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Grand Canyon
55.388
West Virginia
64.838
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
West Virginia
by 9 1/2
144
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
West Virginia
by 4 1/2
150 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
West Virginia
(-4 1/2); Under

Wichita State @ Furman

Game 895-896
March 20, 2019 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Wichita State
00.000
Furman
00.000
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Wichita State

Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Wichita State

Dunkel Pick:
Wichita State
( );

Harvard @ Georgetown

Game 723-724
March 20, 2019 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Harvard
55.493
Georgetown
58.410
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Georgetown
by 3
144
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Georgetown
by 5 1/2
152
Dunkel Pick:
Harvard
(+5 1/2); Under

Norfolk State @ Alabama

Game 719-720
March 20, 2019 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Norfolk State
45.085
Alabama
64.590
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Alabama
by 19 1/2
147
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Alabama
by 15 1/2
142 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Alabama
(-15 1/2); Over

Toledo @ Xavier

Game 717-718
March 20, 2019 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Toledo
59.098
Xavier
69.551
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Xavier
by 10 1/2
148
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Xavier
by 6 1/2
143
Dunkel Pick:
Xavier
(-6 1/2); Over

NC Central @ North Dakota St

Game 715-716
March 20, 2019 @ 6:40 pm

Dunkel Rating:
NC Central
45.896
North Dakota St
49.425
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
North Dakota St
by 3 1/2
127
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
North Dakota St
by 5 1/2
134 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
NC Central
(+5 1/2); Under

 

[Cnotes53]

Wednesday's First-Four Tips
Brian Edwards

**North Carolina Central vs. North Dakota State**

-- As of early this morning, most books had North Dakota State (18-15 straight up, 14-15 against the spread) listed as a five-point favorite with a total of 132.5. The Eagles were +185 on the money line (risk $100 to win $185). For first-half wagers, the Bison were favored by 2.5 points with an ?over/under? of 61.

-- Tonight?s winner advances to take on the Tournament?s top overall seed, Duke, on Friday at 7:10 p.m. Eastern at Colonial Life Arena in Columbia, S.C.

-- North Dakota State will bring a four-game winning streak to Dayton, the annual home of the First Four where Fairleigh Dickinson and Belmont prevailed last night to stay alive in this year?s NCAA Tournament. The Bison won the Summit League Tournament with victories over Oral Roberts, Western Illinois and Nebraska-Omaha. NDS won an 73-63 decision over the Mavericks in the finals in Sioux Falls, S.D., on March 12. The Bison took the cash as a 3.5-point underdog. They roared out to a 41-27 halftime advantage, only to see Nebraska Omaha rally with a 24-10 run to knot the score at 51-51 with 8:24 remaining. But it would be all NDS the rest of the way as it ripped off a 9-0 run to go ahead 60-51 and coast into the win column from there.

-- Vinnie Shahid led the way against the Mavericks with 22 points and three assists without a turnover. Shahid, a transfer from Western Nebraska Community College, buried 7-of-12 field-goal attempts and 6-of-7 from the free-throw line to garner Summit League Tournament MVP honors. Tyson Ward added 15 points and seven rebounds on 6-of-9 FGAs. Cameron Hunter logged only 13 minutes of playing time but made them count, draining all three of his launces from 3-point range and all three attempts from the charity stripe in a 12-point effort. Hunter also dished out a pair of assists without committing a turnover.

-- NDS is ranked 11th in the nation in free-throw percentage, making 77.4 percent of its attempts from the charity stripe. The Bison are No. 69 in the nation in the country in 3-point accuracy (36.6%). On the flip side, NDS struggles defensively, ranking No. 196 in scoring ?D? (76.7 PPG), No. 300 in FG-percentage defense (46.1%) and No. 269 at defending the 3-point line (35.8%).

-- Shahid paces NDS in scoring with his 12.8 points-per-game average and dishes out a team-best 2.7 assists per game. He?s hitting 36.4 percent of his treys, 83.9 percent of his free-throw attempts and has an 88/44 assist-to-turnover ratio. Ward averages 12.3 points and 6.3 rebounds per game, while Deng Geu averages 9.9 points and 5.0 RPG.

-- This is NDS?s third NCAA Tournament appearance in the past six years. The Bison have a 1-3 all-time record in four NCAA Tournament games, upsetting fifth-seeded Oklahoma in an 80-75 overtime win in 2015.

-- NDS faced six foes that are in KenPom.com?s Top 100. The Bison went 0-6 in those games, losing by 17 points or more five times. They gave South Dakota State (No. 94) fits, however, in a 78-77 loss as five-point home underdogs on Feb. 16. NDS has faced a No. 1 seed, getting blasted 102-60 at Gonzaga as a 26.5-point underdog back in non-conference play.

-- NDS is 9-3 SU and 8-3-1 ATS in its past 12 games. Four of those victories have come by double-digit margins.

-- NC Central (18-15 SU, 17-11 ATS) is on fire for our purposes, compiling a 7-1-2 spread record in its past 10 games. The Eagles are 8-2 SU over that span with one its defeats coming in overtime at Norfolk State, the MEAC?s regular-season champ that plays at Alabama in the NIT.

-- NC Central avenged the OT setback to Norfolk State by beating it by a 50-47 count in the MEAC Tournament finals, winning outright as a 4.5-point underdog. The Eagles overcame a 10-point intermission deficit by using a 25-6 run to start the second half. They used a balanced scoring attack with five players scoring at least seven points led by Zacarry Douglas?s 10 points and 12 rebounds. Raasean Davis added eight points, 14 boards, two assists, two blocked shots and one steal. The Eagles controlled the glass with a 37-24 rebounding edge.

-- NC Central is led by Davis, who averages team-bests in scoring (14.6 PPG), rebounding (8.9 RPG), FG percentage (64.5 %), steals (0.9 SPG) and blocked shots (1.2 BPG). The senior center was named the Most Outstanding Player of the MEAC Tournament.

-- NC Central is ranked 50th in the nation in scoring ?D?, limiting opponents to an average of 66.3 PPG. The Eagles are 37th in the country at defending the 3-point line (31.3%). However, they can?t shoot it well from long distance, ranking No. 313 nationally with an abysmal 31.5 percentage.

-- NC Central is in the NCAA Tournament for the third straight season, but it is still looking for its first victory.

-- The ?under? is on a 6-0 run for the Eagles to improve to 17-13 overall.

-- The ?over? is on a 13-6 run to improve to 19-11 overall for the Bison.

-- Tip-off from Dayton Arena is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. Eastern on TruTV.

**Arizona State vs. St. John?s**

-- As of early this morning, most betting shops had Arizona State (22-10 SU, 17-14 ATS) installed as a two-point favorite with a total of 152.5. The winner advances to face sixth-seeded Buffalo on Friday in Tulsa.

-- The head-coaching matchup here might pit the two best college basketball players (among head coaches in this Tournament) from their playing days at Duke for Bobby Hurley (1990-93) and Chris Mullin (1981-85). Both were NBA lottery picks.

-- Bobby Hurley?s team has won six of its past eight games while posting a 5-3 spread record. ASU advanced past UCLA with an 83-72 win as a five-point favorite in its opening game of the Pac-12 Tournament. All five starters scored in double figures led by Romello White?s 19 points and seven rebounds.

-- In the semifinals at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, ASU was eliminated from the Pac-12 Tournament by Oregon in a 79-75 overtime loss as a 2.5-point underdog. Luguentz Dort scored a team-high 16 points in the losing effort, while Rob Edwards finished with 15 points, five rebounds a pair of steals. Remy Martin and Zylan Cheatham had 14 points apiece.

-- Cheatham was the only Pac-12 player to average a double-double this season (11.8 PPG, 10.4 RPG), recording 13 of them. Dort was named the Pac-12 Freshman of the Year thanks to his team-high 16.1 PPG average. Martin, a sophomore guard, averaged 13.4 PPG and handed out a team-best 5.1 APG.

-- ASU has compiled an 8-4 spread record in 12 games as a single-digit ?chalk.?

-- St. John?s (21-12 SU, 14-18 ATS) is in its first NCAA Tournament since 2015 and its first under Mullin, who led the Johnnies to the 1985 Final Four and is in his fourth season back at his alma mater. The Red Storm hasn?t been to a Sweet 16 since going all the way to the Elite Eight back in 1999.

-- Mullin?s team is led by junior guard and Brooklyn native Shamorie Ponds, who averages team-high in scoring (19.5 PPG), assists (5.2 APG) and steals (2.6 SPG). Ponds has a 165/64 assist-to-turnover ratio. Mustapha Heron, a transfer from Auburn, averages 14.9 points, 4.7 rebounds and 1.0 steals per game. Heron is knocking down 42.1 percent of his 3-pointers. L.J. Figueroa averages 14.3 points, 6.9 rebounds and 1.8 SPG, while Marvin Clark (10.8 PPG, 5.4 RPG) and Justin Simon (10.4 PPG, 5.0 RPG) also average in double figures.

-- St. John?s is 5-5 ATS with three outright wins in 10 games as an underdog this season.

-- These schools met on Dec. 8 of 2017 at the Basketball Hall of Fame Classic in Los Angeles, where ASU beat St. John?s 82-70 behind White?s 22 points. Ponds added 19 points for the Johnnies in the losing effort.

-- The ?under? cashed in each of ASU?s final five regular-season game before the ?over? hit on both of its Pac-12 Tournament contests. Nevertheless, the ?under? is 19-13 overall for the Sun Devils.

**B.E.?s Bonus Nuggets**

-- Belmont advanced to face sixth-seeded Maryland in Jacksonville on Thursday by capturing an 81-70 First Four win over Temple as a 2.5-point favorite. The Bruins won their first NCAA Tournament game in program history and cashed tickets as 2.5-point ?chalk.? The 151 combined points dipped ?under? the 155-point total. Kevin McClain was the catalyst for Belmont, dropping a game-high 29 points on the Owls by draining 8-of-14 FGAs, 4-of-7 greys and 9-of-11 FTAs. Dylan Windler struggled with his shot, making only 2-of-7 FGAs and scoring merely five points. However, he pulled down 14 rebounds. The defensive attention Temple paid to Windler freed up Nick Muszynski to hit 8-of-12 FGAs in a 16-point effort. The OVC Freshman of the Year also added four rebounds, three assists and a pair of blocked shots.

-- Fairleigh Dickinson rallied from a seven-point halftime deficit to advance past Prairie View A&M with an 82-76 win as a two-point favorite. The 158 combined points jumped ?over? the 148.5-point tally. Darnell Edge and Jahlil Jenkins were the catalyst for the Knights, who enjoyed a 39-24 advantage in the rebounding department. Edge played all 40 minutes and produced 33 points on 9-of-13 FGAs, 7-of-9 net splashes from long distance and 8-of-8 on FTAs. Jenkins finished with 22 points, four rebounds and six assists compared to only two turnovers.

-- VCU guard Marcus Evans has been upgraded to ?probable? (knee) for Friday?s first-round game vs. UCF. Evans averages 14.3 points, 3.3 assists, 3.1 rebounds and 2.0 steals per game.

-- Toledo (25-7 SU, 17-13 ATS) will be down two of its best players in tonight?s NIT game at Xavier. Marreon Jackson (shoulder) and Willie Jackson (concussion) are both ?out.? Marreon Jackson (11.7 PPG) averages team-highs in assists (4.2 APG) and steals (1.4 SPG), while Willie Jackson averages 8.5 points and 8.8 RPG.

 

[Cnotes53]

WEDNESDAY, MARCH 20
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

NCCU at NDSU 06:40 PM
NDSU -4.5

TOL at XAV 07:00 PM
TOL +6.0
U 143.0

NORF at ALA 07:00 PM
NORF +15.5

HARV at GTWN 07:00 PM
GTWN -6.0
O 152.5

HOW at CCAR 07:00 PM
CCAR -10.5

UAB at BRWN 07:00 PM
U 144.0

GB at ETSU 07:00 PM
GB +12.0
O 156.5

USM at LONG 07:00 PM
USM -9.0

STON at USF 07:00 PM
STON +8.0

GRC at WVU 07:00 PM
GRC +5.5

WICH at FUR 07:00 PM
FUR -4.5


************************


CMU at DEP 08:00 PM
CMU +7.0

TXSO at UNO 08:00 PM
UNO +0.0
O 159.5

GRAM at UTRGV 08:00 PM
UTRGV -10.5


***************************


BUT at NEB 09:00 PM
BUT +4.5

SHSU at TCU 09:00 PM
SHSU +12.0
O 146.5

SJU at ASU 09:10 PM
ASU -2.0

PRE at SEA 10:00 PM
SEA -5.0

LMU at CALBA 10:30 PM
CALBA +2.0

 

[Cnotes53]

CBB MARCH MADNESS RECORD OPINIONS AND BEST BETS !

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD

03/20/2019 10-14-0 41.67% -2700
03/19/2019 9-14-1 39.13% -3200
03/18/2019 2-0-0 100.00% +10.00

Totals..............21-28-1......42.85%.....-49.00


******************************


BEST BETS:

DATE........................ATS................... ..UNITS..................O/U..................UNITS.............TOTALS

03/20/2019.............3 - 7......................-23.00................1 - 1..................-0.50................-23.50
03/19/2019.............5 - 5......................-2.50..................2 - 6..................-23.00..............-25.50
03/18/2019.............1 - 0......................+5.00.................1 - 0..................+5.00..............+10.00


Totals.....................9 - 12.....................-20.50................4 - 7..................-18.50..............-38.50

 

[Cnotes53]

Thursday?s 6-pack

Favorites to win each region:

? East: Duke 9-5, Michigan State +$275, Virginia Tech 11-1

? South: Virginia even, Tennessee +$325, Purdue 7-2

? Midwest: North Carolina 9-5, Kentucky 2-1, Houston 5-1

? West: Gonzaga 3-1, Michigan +$375, Texas Tech 9-2

? Over/under for wins by ACC teams in NCAA?s: 15

? Over/under for wins by Big 14 teams: 10.5

Tweet of the Day
?Most people come in groups of two to six. I always feel bad for that one guy who brings his girlfriend. There?s always that one guy who has to say, ?Talk to you guys later, I?m going to the Forum shops.??
Westgate SuperBook VP Jay Kornegay, talking about March Madness in Las Vegas

Thursday?s quiz
Remember the final basketball scenes in the movie Hoosiers? Which college still plays its home games in that arena?

Wednesday?s quiz
Philadelphia Eagles have played in three Super Bowls; Ron Jaworski, Donovan McNabb, Nick Foles started those games at QB for the Eagles.

Tuesday?s quiz
Penguins are the NHL team that has the longest active streak of consecutive years in the playoffs, making it the last dozen seasons.

******************************

Thursday?s List of 13: Doing some thinking out loud??

13) I?m not fond of the baseball season starting at 5:30am on another continent.

If it wasn?t the A?s playing, I?d just sleep thru it and watch the replay later on. Only positive note about all this is that the last time Oakland played over in Japan, they wound up winning their division that year (2012).

12) Syracuse will be without starting PG Frank Howard when it plays Baylor Thursday; Howard was suspended for violating an athletic department policy. Howard scored 28 points against Duke in the ACC tournament last week.

11) Over/under betting line on largest margin of victory in first round of NCAA tournament Thursday/Friday: 37.5 points.

10) North Dakota State 78, North Carolina Central 74? Both teams shot over 40% on arc in this game. Bison bench outscored NC Central?s 17-0, now advances to get crushed by Duke Friday.

9) Arizona State 74, St John?s 65? This was an awful game; Red Storm starts three juniors and a senior, but they?re not good- they went 9-13 in last 22 games, after going 12-0 vs non-conference schedule #327. Chris Mullin seems like a good guy, but is a suspect coach.

Bobby Hurley continues to be an overbearing jerk on the sidelines; he got a technical near the end of the first half, when his team was up 15; you could tell the ref just got sick of listening to him carp constantly about everything.

8) Brooklyn Nets were down 25 in the 4th quarter Tuesday, rallied to win in Sacramento, just the 4th time in the shot clock era that has happened.

7) Been a rough 14 months for former U of San Diego basketball coach Lamont Smith; last year, he got into a fracas with a girlfriend during a Toreros? road trip, which isn?t so bad, except that he was married at the time. He was shown the door before the season ended.

This week, Smith was named in that big college admissions scandal; now an assistant coach at UTEP, Smith resigned from that job Wednesday.

6) Norfolk State 80, Alabama 79 OT? Big win for MEAC over an SEC team; Jamerson scored 25 points off the bench for the Spartans, making 7-13 behind the arc.

5) Harvard 71, Georgetown 68? Hoyas played this game in McDonough Gym, an old gym on campus that looks like a pretty nice high school gym. Georgetown is 34-29 in two years under Patrick Ewing, 14-22 in Big East games.

4) Happy birthday to the greatest defenseman ever, Bobby Orr, who turned 71 Wednesday. A friend of my parents gave me a subscription to Sports Illustrated for my 9th birthday, and the first issue that arrived had Bobby Orr on the cover, which made me a big Bruins fan.

Bad knees shortened his career, but when he rushed the puck from behind the net, the crowd at Boston Garden would buzz. Bruins won the Stanley Cup in ?70 and ?72. Happy birthday!!!!

3) QB Tate Martell bolted from Ohio State to Miami, will be eligible this fall; kids who don?t start don?t stick around very much these days.

2) White Sox signed OF prospect Eloy Jimenez to a 6-year, $43M contract, despite fact that Jimenez hasn?t played in a major league game yet. If he is as good as everyone says, this will wind up being a tremendous bargain for the Pale Hose.

Tampa Bay signed utility guy Brandon Lowe to a 6-year deal with at least $24M; Lowe still qualifies as a rookie; he had 129 AB?s in 43 games last year, hitting .233 with six HR?s, six doubles, 25 RBIs. He made 24 starts at second base, 11 in center field and five in right field.

1) Alex Bregman signed a 6-year, $100M extension with the Astros, as every AL West team but the A?s spends a load of cash. A?s used their first round pick last June on a quarterback, which would be great, if they were a football team.

 

[Cnotes53]

Thursday?s games

Richard Pitino vs the school that canned his father two years ago; Gophers won four of last six games- they don?t take many 3?s or sub a lot. Cardinals are 4-8 in last 12 games after a 16-5 start; they?re a top 20 team nationally in defensive eFG%. Pitino lost 81-72 as a 5-seed in his only NCAA game as a head coach, in 2017. Mack is 11-8 in NCAA games, 6-2 in first round. Last six years, favorites are 16-8 vs spread in 7-10 games. Last four years, ACC teams are 22-8 in first round; they?re 3-6 vs spread in last nine tries as a 1st round underdog. Louisville won its last five first round games. Big 14 teams are 19-7 in last 26 first round games.

LSU is experience team #324 whose coach is suspended for NCAA stuff; they lost in first round of SEC tourney LW. Tigers are a vulnerable favorite here. Yale upset Baylor 79-75 (+6) in a 5-12 game three years ago, their first NCAA game since 1959; Bulldogs shoot 37.4% on arc- they?re #33 experience team that lost in OT at Memphis but lost by 33 at Duke. LSU forces turnovers 20.7% of time; are they just too athletic for Yale? Ivy League teams split their last six first round games (5-1 vs spread). Last six years, underdogs are 14-10 vs spread in 3-14 games. Since 2014, SEC teams are 3-8 vs spread as a single digit favorite in first round games.

New Mexico State hasn?t lost since Jan 3; WAC doesn?t get on TV much, but they?re conference #14- Aggies lost by 3 to Kansas, by 15 to St Mary?s last fall. State lost by 11 to Clemson in NCAA?s LY; they?re experience team #73 that makes 56.6% of its 2?s, 36.2% of its 3?s. Auburn won SEC tourney last week; Tigers won their last eight games; they force turnovers 25.4% of time, #1 in country. Last 11 years, WAC teams are 0-12 SU in NCAA games, 4-8 vs spread; their last SU win was Nevada in 2007. Since 2014, SEC teams are 3-8 vs spread as a single digit favorite in first round gamesLast four years, favorites are 9-7 vs spread in 5-12 games.

Vermont is 24-3 in its last 27 games; last fall, they lost by 8 at Louisville, 16 at Kansas. Becker is 0-2 in NCAA games, losing by 19-10 points (0-2 vs spread) in NCAA games in ?12, ?17. Over last eight years, America East teams are 5-3 vs spread in this round. Catamounts are experience team #251 that plays tempo #285. Florida State forces turnovers 20.3% of time; Seminoles are experience team #82 that won 14 of last 16 games, losing ACC tourney final to Duke. Last five years, ACC teams are 6-12 vs spread as a double digit favorite in this round. Last five years, underdogs are 12-8 vs spread in 4-13 games.

Belmont played four starters 33:00+ in its 80-71 win over Temple Tuesday; Bruins got only five points from their star Windler, but scored 80 anyway. Belmont won at UCLA, lost at Purdue by 11 in its two games vs Power 5 opponents; they?re experience team #250 whose eFG% is #3 in whole country. Maryland went 13-7 in Big 14; they?re 3-4 in last seven games. Terrapins are #350 experience team whose defensive eFG% is #17 in country, but they don?t force many turnovers, only 14.3 per game. Maryland is 9-2 outside Big 14, losing to Virginia/Seton Hall by total of nine points. Turgeon is 8-8 in NCAA games, 6-2 in first round games.

Bradley is in NCAA?s for first time in 13 years; they beat Penn State by 3 in November, in their only top 100 game this season. Braves are experience team #65 that plays slowish pace and makes 36.8% of its 3?s- they haven?t played in 11 days, since Arch Madness ended. Michigan State won Big 14 tourney Sunday; last seven years. they?re 5-2 vs spread in first round games. Spartans won five in row, 10 of last 11 games; they?re experience team #138 whose defensive eFG% is #6 in country. Since 2013, MVC teams are 9-0 SU in this round, and were underdogs in four of those games. MVC teams covered 10 of their last 14 first round games.

Northeastern won seven in row, 16 of last 18 games; they?re experience team #59 that plays pace #252 and shoots 38.8% on arc- their eFG% is #5 in country. Huskies last made NCAAs in 2015, losing 69-65 (+12) as a 14-seed. CAA teams are 0-6 SU in this round the last six years, covering five of those games; since 2009, CAA teams are 11-2 vs spread in this round. Kansas didn?t win regular season or Big X tourney title this year; Jayhawks won last 12 first round games, going 3-0-1 vs spread in last four- last time they lost in first round was last time they were a #4-seed, in 2006. Last five years, underdogs are 12-8 vs spread in 4-13 games.

Murray State won its last 11 games; they?re #234 experience team that shoots 57.2% inside arc, has #21 eFG% in country. Racers lost 85-68 to West Virginia in first round LY; they lost by 5 to Auburn, by 6 to Alabama this year. Marquette lost five of its last six games; they?re shooting 39.3% on arc this season. OVC teams are 0-6 in this round (3-3 vs spread) the last six years; last OVC to win a game was Murray as a #6-seed in 2012 (they lost to Marquette in 2nd round that year). Last four years, favorites are 9-7 vs spread in 5-12 games.

Nevada is 5-3 in its last eight games after starting season 24-1; Wolf Pack starts five 5th-year seniors; their starting 5 are older than the Phoenix Suns? starters. Wolf Pack shoots 55.1% inside arc, gets 21% of its points from foul line. Florida plays a slow (#346) pace; they force turnovers 22.6% of time. Gators are #271 experience team; they lost four of last six games. Since 2003, Mountain West teams are 14-25 in first round games, 3-5 the last five years; since ?04, SEC teams are 7-9 vs spread as a first round underdog. Last six years, favorites are 16-8 vs spread in 7-10 games. Florida coach White is 4-2 in NCAA?s, 2-0 in first round games.

On February 21, Abilene Christian tossed their leading scorer and another starter off their team; they?re 6-1 since then, and won Southland tourney. Wildcats lost by 34 to Texas Tech in their only game this season against a team ranked in top 150. Since ?07, Southland teams are 3-12 SU in NCAA games, 3-8 vs spread in last 11 tourney games. Kentucky is experience team #351- they are 3-2 in last five games. Wildcats play slowish pace (#265); teams are shooting only 43.6% inside arc against them. Last four years, favorites are 10-6 vs spread in 2-15 games. Wildcats are 2-5 vs spread in their last seven first round games.

Villanova won Big East tourney last week; they?re 25-9, winning five of last six games. Over last five years, Wildcats were in top 12 nationally in defensive efficiency every year, but this season, they?re #73. Villanova is experience team #178 that plays a slow (#333) pace- they get 42.8% of their points behind the arc (#9 in country). Saint Mary?s beat Gonzaga, won WCC tourney to get here; they haven?t played in nine days- they?re experience team #253. Gaels won seven of their last eight games, also play slow tempo (#347); they shoot 37.8% on arc. Saint Mary?s is 3-6 in NCAA games under Bennett, 2-4 in first round games.

FDU was down 7 at the half to Prairie View Tuesday, rallied to win 82-76; they played three guys 40:00 Tuesday- their subs played total of 14:00. Knights are 0-2 vs top 100 teams this season, losing by 35 at Rutgers, 10 at Providence- they?re experience team #151. Gonzaga lost WCC title game nine days ago; they?re 9-0 this season vs teams ranked outside top 200, with all the wins by 20+ points, seven by 30+. Bulldogs? bench plays minutes #313; if they get way up in this game, do they sit starters earlier to get ready for Baylor-Syracuse winner Saturday? Last four years, #1 seeds are 9-7 against the spread in this round.

Michigan (-11.5) beat Montana 61-47 in first round of NCAA?s LY, after Grizzlies led 10-0 early on; game was 31-28 at half, but Montana shot only 32.1% for night. Teams meet again here; Montana is #6 experience team in country, shooting 38.1% on arc, 56.3% inside arc- they lost by 26 to Creighton, by 19 to Arizona in their highest profile games. Wolverines lost Big 14 tourney finals Sunday; they?re only 4-3 in last seven games. Michigan is experience team #242. Beilein is 17-8 in NCAA games at Michigan, 6-2 in first round. Big Sky teams haven?t won an NCAA game since 2006; they?re 1-6-1 vs spread in their last eight first round games.

SoCon teams lost their last ten first round games, going 5-4-1 vs spread as an underdog, but this year, Wofford is a #7-seed and is favored here. Last time a SoCon team won a first round game was in 2008, when Steph Curry?s Davidson team got to Elite 8 as a 10-seed- they were favored in their first round game. Terriers won their last 20 games, but last fall, they lost by 25 to Kansas, 11 at Miss State, 11 to North Carolina- they beat South Carolina by 20. Wofford makes 41.6% on arc; they?re experience team #135. Seton Hall won four of last five games; Willard is 1-3 in NCAA games, and he was a 6-9-8 seed those years. Pirates are a 10-seed here, and an underdog.

In last four years, Conference USA teams posted first round upsets, as 14-15-12-13 seeds, Old Dominion is 26-8; they play a slow pace (#325) and won 10 of last 12 games. Monarchs won at Syracuse, beat VCU by 10; they?re #149 experience team. ODU coach Jones is battling prostate cancer, so this is an emotional time for the ODU family. Purdue is 23-9 this year, but lost two of its last three games; they score 38.3% of their points on the arc, with Cline making 41.8% of his 3?s. ODU?s opponents have made only 32.5% of their 3?s this year. Painter is 11-11 in NCAA tilts, but 8-3 in first round games.

Baylor lost its last four games, making 22-80 on arc in last three games; they?ll need to shoot ball better against Syracuse?s 2-3 zone here. Bears are experience team #255 whose subs play a lot (minutes #56). Drew is 10-7 in NCAA games, 4-3 in first round. Baylor?s senior G Mason was 9-19 on arc in his last three games, after a dismal 3-22 skid which also included two missed games with a foot injury. Syracuse is 4-7 in its last 11 games; their best player Battle didn?t play in their last game. Orange forces turnovers 23.2% of the time while playing pace #251. Boeheim won his last eight first round games; last loss was in ?06, after his team won Big East tourney.

 

[Cnotes53]

Thursday - Session 1
March 20, 2019
By David Schwab

This Thursday afternoon?s college basketball betting action marks the start of the first full round of games in this year?s NCAA Tournament. Minnesota is the No. 10 seed in the East Region and it will face No. 7 Louisville in the opening tip. Also in the East, No. 14 Yale takes on No. 3 LSU.

In the opening game in the Midwest Region, No. 12 New Mexico State faces No. 5 Auburn and in an early matchup in the West Region, No. 13 Vermont squares off against No. 4 Florida State.

East Region (Des Moines, IA.)
No. 10 Minnesota Golden Gophers vs. No. 7 Louisville Cardinals (CBS, 12:15 p.m. ET)

Opening Odds: Louisville -5 ?, 135

Betting Matchup

Minnesota was seventh in the Big Ten this season at 9-11 straight-up in conference play. A decent run in the Big Ten Tournament that included an important 75-73 upset against Purdue as a 10-point underdog proved to be enough to land a spot in the 68-team field. The Golden Gophers were an even 17-17 against the spread this season, but they were able to cover in four of their last six games.

The Cardinals lost some major ground down the stretch of the regular season with six SU losses in their last eight games. After hammering Notre Dame by 22 points in the opening game of the ACC Tournament, that run came to a quick end with an 83-70 loss to North Carolina as seven-point underdogs. Louisville did manage to cover in three of its final four games with the total staying UNDER or ending as a PUSH in seven of its last nine outings.

Betting Trends

-- The Golden Gophers are 4-1 ATS in their last five games following a SU loss and the total has gone OVER in five of their last six NCAA Tournament games.

-- The Cardinals have a 10-3-1 record ATS in their last 14 games against the Big Ten with the total staying UNDER in five of their last seven games against this conference.

-- These two have met twice before with the series tied 1-1 both SU and ATS. The total went OVER in each contest.

East Region (Jacksonville, FL.)
No. 14 Yale Bulldogs vs. No. 3 LSU Tigers (TruTV, 12:40 p.m. ET)

Opening Odds: LSU -7, 159 ?

Betting Matchup

Yale punched its ticket to the Big Dance by beating Harvard 97-85 as a four-point favorite in the recent Ivy League Tournament title game. Alex Copeland scored a season-high 25 points to pace the win. SU losses to Harvard, Columbia and Penn in the Bulldogs? last five regular season games dropped them to 10-4 in conference play and 22-7 SU overall. They failed to cover in four of five games this season closing as an underdog.

LSU set the pace in the SEC regular season at 16-2 SU, but the Tigers fizzled out early in the conference tournament surrounded by off-court issues dogging the program. They dropped a 76-73 decision against Florida as 3 ?-point favorites on a last-second three-point shot after blowing a 13-point second-half lead. That was the first time LSU failed to cover in its previous six games as part of an overall record of 26-6 SU and 19-12-1 ATS.

Betting Trends

-- The Bulldogs have covered the spread in 11 of their last 14 neutral-site games with the total staying UNDER or ending as a PUSH in four of the last five games played at a neutral site.

-- The Tigers are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games coming off a SU loss and the total has stayed UNDER in eight of their last nine games in this tournament.

Midwest Region (Salt Lake City, UT.)
No. 12 New Mexico State Aggies vs. No. 5 Auburn Tigers (TNT, 1:30 p.m. ET)

Opening Odds: Auburn -6 ?, 143 ?

Betting Matchup

The Aggies have been the class of the Western Athletic Conference all season long with a SU 15-1 record in conference play. This is part of an overall 30-4 record while going 17-15-1 ATS. Their current SU winning streak stands at 19 games, but their record ATS during this impressive run slips to 9-9-1. New Mexico State is scoring 78.1 points per game with four different players averaging at least 10 points.

Auburn was fourth on the list in the SEC this season at 11-7 SU with a 26-9 record overall. Starting with a road win against Georgia to close out the month of February, the Tigers have won their last eight games SU. This includes a dominant 84-64 victory against Tennessee as five-point underdogs in Sunday?s SEC Tournament Championship. They went 5-1 ATS over their last six games. Auburn is averaging79.4 PPG this year with 80 points or more in four of its last seven games.

Betting Trends

-- The Aggies have failed to cover in five of their last six NCAA Tournament games with the total going OVER in four of their last five games after covering ATS in their previous game.

-- The Tigers are 5-2-1 ATS in their last eight neutral-site games. The total has stayed UNDER or ended as a PUSH in four of their last five NCAA Tournament games.

West Region (Hartford, CT.)
No. 13 Vermont Catamounts vs. No. 4 Florida State Seminoles (TBS, 2:00 p.m. ET)

Opening Odds: Florida State -10, 134

Betting Matchup

As the top team in the America East at 14-2 SU with a 27-6 record overall, Vermont kept things rolling with a trio of lopsided victories in the AEC Tournament. The Catamounts covered as 10.5-point favorites in a 66-49 victory against UMBC in the title game. They bring a SU six-game winning streak into Thursday?s contest while going an even 3-3 ATS. Vermont is 2-1-1 ATS this season closing as an underdog.

Florida State?s run all the way to the ACC Tournament?s title game helped improve its position in the NCAA Tournament. The Seminoles were the only other ACC team than Duke to beat Virginia this season with a 69-59 victory against the Cavaliers in the semifinals as 8 ?-point underdogs. They lost to Duke 73-63 as seven-point underdogs in the title game. The total stayed UNDER 146.5 points against the Blue Devils and it has stayed UNDER in six of their last eight games.

Betting Trends

-- The Catamounts have a 1-4 record ATS in five previous games in this tournament with the total staying UNDER in six of their last eight NCAA Tournament games.

-- The Seminoles are 8-2-2 ATS in their last 12 games played at a neutral site and the total has stayed UNDER in nine of those 12 games.

 

[Cnotes53]

Thursday - Session 2
March 20, 2019
By Kevin Rogers

East Region (Des Moines, IA)
No. 15 Bradley vs. No. 2 Michigan State (CBS, 2:45 PM EST)

Opening Odds: Michigan State -18 ?, 133 ?

The Spartans (28-6 SU, 24-10 ATS) captured the Big 10 tournament crown after knocking off rival Michigan for the third time this season, 65-60 in Sunday?s championship game in Chicago. MSU rebounded nicely from a three-game skid in early February to win seven of its final eight regular season games, while picking up three wins in three days at the United Center for its first Big 10 tournament title since 2016.

The Braves (20-14 SU, 16-17 ATS) were one of the shocking teams to receive an automatic bid to the Big Dance as Bradley won the Missouri Valley Conference tournament as the #5 seed. Bradley?s three victories in the tournament came by a total of eight points, culminated by a victory of Northern Iowa in the championship game, 57-54 after trailing by 18 points in the second half.

Amazingly, Bradley began MVC play at 0-5 before winning nine of their next 13 games, which included a loss at Missouri State in which it scored only 37 points. The Braves are riding an 8-4 ATS run in the underdog role, while receiving double-digit points for the first time this season. Bradley will slow things down as it has drilled the UNDER in seven of the past nine games, including UNDERS in the MVC tournament against Loyola-Chicago (118) and Northern Iowa (118 ?).

Michigan State covered in nine of 15 opportunities as a favorite of 10 points or more, but failed to cash as a double-digit favorite in both NCAA tournament games last season. The Spartans held off Bucknell as 14 ?-point favorites in an 82-78 win before getting bounced by Syracuse in the second round, 55-53 as 10-point chalk. Michigan State and Bradley last met in December 2008 in East Lansing as the Spartans won, 75-59 as 15-point favorites.

East Region (Jacksonville, FL)
No. 11 Belmont vs. No. 6 Maryland (truTV - 3:10 PM EST)

Opening Odds: Maryland -3, 147

The Ohio Valley Conference doesn?t normally send more than one team to the NCAA tournament. Murray State received the automatic bid for winning the conference tournament, but Belmont (27-5 SU, 20-10-1 ATS) picked up a rare at-large bid from a mid-major conference. The Bruins were relegated to the play-in game in Dayton, but pulled away from Temple, 81-70 to cash as 2 ?-point favorites and pick up their first ever NCAA tournament win after seven losses.

Maryland (22-10 SU, 16-15-1 ATS) jumped out to a 7-1 record in Big 10 play before splitting its final 12 conference affairs. The Terrapins were one and done in the conference tournament for the third straight season after getting shocked by Nebraska, 69-61 as 6 ?-point favorites. Maryland defeated several tournament teams down the stretch by beating Minnesota, Ohio State, Iowa, and Purdue in the final month, but also suffered double-digit road losses at Michigan and Penn State.

Belmont looks to become the ninth team since the field expanded to 68 teams in 2011 to win the play-in game then grab a victory in its first round contest. The Bruins closed the regular season on a 13-game winning streak, while the only loss since mid-January came to Murray State in the OVC tournament, 77-65. Belmont has topped the 80-point mark in 12 of the past 14 games, while owning a 3-1 ATS mark in the underdog role this season.

The Terps are making their first NCAA tournament appearance since falling to Xavier in the first round of the 2017 Big Dance. Maryland has covered only once in its past four opportunities as a favorite in the NCAA tournament since 2015, as the Terps are facing Belmont for the first time ever.

Midwest Region (Salt Lake City, UT)
No. 13 Northeastern vs. No. 4 Kansas (TNT, 4:00 PM EST)

Opening Odds: Kansas -6 ?, 143

It wasn?t a typical season in Lawrence as Kansas (25-9 SU, 16-18 ATS) failed to capture at least a piece of the Big 12 regular season title for the first time since 2004. The Jayhawks reached the conference tournament title game in their backyard of Kansas City, but KU was bounced by a red-hot Iowa State squad. Kansas owns a dreadful 4-10 ATS record in its last 14 games away from Allen Fieldhouse, while losing to tournament teams Oklahoma, Texas Tech, Kansas State, and Kentucky on the road since January.

Northeastern (23-10 SU, 18-12-3 ATS) downed Colonial regular season champion Hofstra in the tournament title game, 82-74. The Huskies are making their first appearance in the Big Dance since falling to Notre Dame in 2015 by four points, while seeking their first tourney victory since 1984.

It was a rough start to the season ATS-wise for Northeastern, who began 4-8-2 ATS the first 14 games in spite of beating Harvard and Alabama as underdogs. The Huskies caught fire from a pointspread perspective by posting a 14-4-1 ATS mark in the past 19 contests, while three of their previous four losses have come by three points or less.

Kansas is not listed as a number one or two seed for the first time since 2009, while sitting as a fourth seed for the first time since 2006, when the Jayhawks lost to Bradley in the first round. That was the last time KU was bounced in its first game of the tournament, as the Jayhawks have won in the opening round the last five years by double-digits apiece.

West Region (Hartford, CT)
No. 12 Murray State vs. No. 5 Marquette (TBS, 4:30 PM EST)

Opening Odds: Marquette -4, 149 ?

One of the more intriguing games to take place on Thursday features two of the nation?s leading scorers. Marquette guard Markus Howard averaged 25.0 points per game, including a 53-point performance in an overtime victory at Creighton in January when he knocked down 10 three-pointers. Murray State guard Ja Morant nearly equaled Howard?s average at 24.6 ppg, while putting up 36 points in the Ohio Valley title game win against Belmont.

The Golden Eagles (24-9 SU, 19-14 ATS) spent most of Big East play at the top of the conference standings by winning 12 of their first 14 league games. Marquette fell apart late by dropping its final four Big East contests to slip to second place behind Villanova, including outright home favorite losses to Creighton and Georgetown. The Golden Eagles avenged a pair of losses to St. John?s by blowing out the Red Storm in the Big East semifinals, but were two and barbeque in New York after losing by two points to Seton Hall.

The Racers (27-4 SU, 19-10 ATS) wrapped up the OVC regular season title with an impressive 18-2 mark, while last suffering a loss against Jacksonville State on January 31. Murray State posted a perfect 4-0 record in the underdog role this season, including covers in road losses at Alabama and Auburn. Last season, Murray State reached the NCAA tournament but was an early victim as the Racers lost to West Virginia, 85-68 as 10-point underdogs.

Marquette and Murray State have met only once and it occurred in the 2012 NCAA tournament when the Golden Eagles beat the Racers in the second round, 62-53 as five-point favorites. The last time Marquette made the tournament was 2017 when the Golden Eagles were blown out by eventual Final Four participant South Carolina, 93-73 in the first round.

 

[Cnotes53]

Thursday - Session 3
March 21, 2019
By Brian Edwards

West Region (Des Moines, IA)
No. 10 Florida vs. No. 7 Nevada (TNT, 6:50 PM EST)

Opening Odds: Nevada -2 ?, 133 ?

-- As of Wednesday night, most books had seventh-seeded Nevada (29-4 straight up, 17-14 against the spread) installed as a 2.5-point favorite with a total of 133.5. The Gators were +120 on the money line (risk $100 to win $120).

-- Nevada is mired in a 1-7 ATS slump in its past eight games, losing three of those games outright. The Wolf Pack lost 65-57 at San Diego State, 81-76 at Utah State and 65-56 vs. San Diego State in the Mountain West Conference Tournament semifinals.

-- Eric Musselman?s squad was without senior forward Jordan Caroline at the MWC Tournament. He sat out due to an Achilles issue but is listed as ?probable? vs. UF. Caroline averages 17.3 points and 9.6 rebounds while shooting at a 38.0 percent clip from 3-point land.

-- In the MWC semifinal loss to the Aztecs, Nevada had an abysmal 5/12 assist-to-turnover ratio, made only 37.9 percent of its field-goal attempts, connected on merely 6-of-24 launches from downtown (25.0%) and hit just 6-of-13 free-throw attempts (46.2%). Cody Martin had 16 points and six rebounds, while Tre-Shawn Thurman finished with 11 points, 11 rebounds and a pair of blocked shots. Caleb Martin was limited to 24 minutes of action before fouling out. He had only eight points and four rebounds.

-- Nevada is No. 25 at KenPom.com, producing a 7-1 record against K-Pom Top-100 opponents. The Wolf Pack?s other defeats came against San Diego St. (twice; No. 122) and at New Mexico (No. 183). They also lost at Utah St. (No. 33) by an 81-76 count.

-- Nevada?s best home wins came over BYU, South Dakota State (and The Daum-inator), Utah State, Fresno State and San Diego State. The Wolf Pack won at USC, at Utah, at Fresno State and downed Arizona State on a neutral floor.

-- Caleb Martin averages 19.2 points, 5.1 rebounds, 2.9 assists, 1.4 steals and 0.8 blocked shots per game. Cody Martin averages 11.7 points, 5.1 assists, 4.5 rebounds, 1.3 steals and 0.7 BPG. He has a stellar 167/62 assist-to-turnover ratio.

-- Nevada is 5-3-1 ATS with two outright losses in nine games as a single-digit ?chalk.?

-- Florida (19-15 SU, 16-18 ATS) ripped off five consecutive wins over a two-week stretch starting in mid-February. However, UF lost 61-55 to Georgia as an 11-point home favorite on March 2. Then on March 6, the Gators came out on the wrong side of a 79-78 decision vs. LSU in overtime. In its regular-season finale, Mike White?s club led at Kentucky by a 31-30 score at halftime, only to go more than seven minutes of the second half without a bucket in a 66-57 defeat. Therefore, Florida went to Nashville needing at least one and probably two victories to earn an at-large berth to the NCAA Tournament.

-- The first test came against Arkansas, a team Florida had beaten 57-51 in Fayetteville. In Nashville, UF trounced the Razorbacks 66-50 as a 3.5-point ?chalk.? Freshman forward Keyontae Johnson was the catalyst with 20 points and 12 rebounds on 8-of-14 shooting from the field and 3-of-5 makes from beyond the arc. Senior guard KeVaughn Allen, who finished his career 7-1 against the Hogs after starring at North Little Rock HS during his prep years, dropped 17 points in his last game against Arkansas.

-- In the SEC Tournament quarterfinals, Florida and LSU met in a rubber match after the road team prevailed in overtime of both regular-season encounters. The Tigers, playing without their head coach Will Wade, led by as many as 13 in the first half and still maintained a double-digit advantage with 13:37 remaining. But the Gators slowly trimmed the deficit and then got a huge momentum shift with a 3-pointer that counted as an away-from-the-ball foul was called. Then LSU interim head coach Tony Benford was whistled for a technical that created four FTAs. With the game tied in the closing moments, Johnson penetrated to the hole before dishing out to freshman point guard Andrew Nembhard, who caught the ball at the top of the key and drained a step-in trey with one tick remaining.

-- Nembhard?s game-winner gave Florida a 76-73 win as a 3.5-point underdog. He finished with 20 points, four rebounds and six assists without a turnover. All five starters were in double figures including Johnson, who had 16 points, 10 boards, four assists and four steals. Kevarrius Hayes finished with 11 points and eight rebounds on 5-of-7 FGAs.

-- In the SEC Tournament semifinals, Florida dropped a 65-62 decision to Auburn when the officials swallowed their whistles in the final seconds despite the fact that multiple AU players were intentionally fouling Nembhard while he was in the air trying to launch a potential game-trying 3-pointer. UF had led 34-30 at intermission. The game was decided by UF?s 18 turnovers compared to just four for the Tigers, who had 56 FGAs compared to only 38 for Florida. The Gators shot at a 60.5 percent clip and dominated the glass with a 29-16 rebounding edge. Jalen Hudson had 16 points, four rebounds and four assists, while Hayes finished with 16 points, 12 boards and two blocked shots.

-- Florida is in the NCAA Tournament for the third year in a row and the 20th time in program history (The first came in 1987 when the M&M Boys led UF past N.C. St. and Purdue before losing to eventual runner-up Syracuse in the East Region semifinals at the Meadowlands.). White has a 4-2 record in six NCAA Tourney games. UF owns a 43-17 record in 60 all-time Tournament games, advancing to 11 Sweet 16 appearances, 10 Elite Eights and five Final Fours. The Gators have two national titles, one runner-up finish in 2000, and are the last program to repeat as national champs (Duke in ?91 and ?92 was the last to do it beforehand).

-- Like UF, Nevada is also in the Tournament for a third straight season. Musselman led the Wolf Pack to the Sweet 16 last year before losing by one to Loyola-Chicago in a thriller. They have a 6-8 record in 14 Tournament games.

-- The ?under? is 19-13 overall for Nevada, but the ?over? has hit in four of its last six games.

-- The ?under? is 23-11 overall for the Gators, who have seen the ?under? go 16-3 in their games played on the road or at a neutral venue.

Midwest Region (Jacksonville, FL)
No. 15 Abilene Christian vs. No. 2 Kentucky (CBS, 7:10 PM EST)

Opening Odds: Kentucky -21, 132

-- As of Wednesday night, most spots had second-seeded Kentucky (27-6 SU, 17-16 ATS) listed as a 22-point favorite with a total of 132. The Wildcats had 20/1 odds to win outright at The Westgate SuperBook. For first-half bets, UK was favored by 13 points with a total of 61.5 points, and the Wildcats were +900 on the money line (risk $100 to win $900).

-- This is the opening game of the Evening Session at Veterans Memorial Coliseum in Jacksonville, FL. The winner will face the survivor of the 7/10 matchup between Wofford and Seton Hall on Saturday.

-- Kentucky star P.J. Washington is listed as ?probable? with a foot injury, but he?s been seen by media members in a walking boot several times this week. Washington is UK?s leading scorer (14.8 PPG) and rebounder (7.6 RPG).

-- Kentucky should have fresh legs after playing only twice at the SEC Tournament. John Calipari?s team beat up on Alabama 73-55 as a 12.5-point favorite in the quarterfinals. Tyler Herro was the catalyst with 20 points, six rebounds, two steals, two assists and one block. Washington contributed 10 points, 12 boards, four assists, four blocked shots and a pair of steals. After nearly missing a month injured, senior center Reid Travis returned to provide eight points, seven rebounds and three rejections in 23 minutes of playing time.

-- Kentucky allowed a late lead to get away in the semifinals, dropping the rubber match with Tennessee by an 82-78 count. The ?Cats led by seven with 2:45 remaining, only to get outscored 17-6 to end the game. The Volunteers won outright as 1.5-point underdogs. All five UK starters were in double figures led by Washington?s 16 points. Ashton Hagans had 10 points and 12 assists, while Keldon Johnson finished with 15 points and six boards.

-- Kentucky has posted a 6-9 spread record in 15 games as a double-digit favorite.

-- Abilene Christian (27-6 SU, 16-13 ATS) is led by Jaren Lewis, who averages team-bests in scoring (13.7 PPG), rebounding (6.2 RPG) and blocked shots (0.6 BPG). Jaylen Franklin (10.2 PPG) averages team-highs in assists (4.9 APG), FG percentage (54.0%) and steals (1.8 SPG). He has a 161/69 assist-to-turnover ratio. Jalone Friday (13.1 PPG) and Payten Ricks (11.7 PPG) also average double figures and shoot it well from deep with 37.7 and 40.8 percentages on attempts from beyond the arc.

-- Abilene Christian has won six straight games while going 5-1 ATS. The Wildcats beat New Orleans 77-60 as 4.5-point favorites in the finals of the Southland Tournament. Lewis led the way with 20 points, six rebounds and three steals, while Franklin produced 16 points and six assists.

-- ACU is ranked 19th in the nation in scoring defense, limiting opponents to 63.1 PPG. The Wildcats are ranked 17th in the country in 3-point accuracy (38.6%) and 41st in FG percentage (47.4%).

-- ACU is No. 145 at K-Pom, facing only one for in the Top 150. Texas Tech destroyed the Wildcats 82-48 in Lubbock on Dec. 15.

-- The ?over? has hit in back-to-back games for the Wildcats to improve to 15-14 overall.

-- The ?under? is on a 6-2 roll for Kentucky to improve to 21-12 overall.

South Region (Hartford, CT)
No. 11 Saint Mary's vs. No. 6 Villanova (TBS, 7:20 PM EST)

Opening Odds: Villanova -4, 130

-- As of Wednesday night, most books had Villanova (25-9 SU, 20-14 ATS) installed as a 4.5-point favorite with a total of 130. The Gaels were +180 on the money line (risk $100 to win $180).

-- Villanova went to New York City for the Big East Tournament in a serious slump. Jay Wright?s team had gone 2-4 both SU and ATS in its last six regular-season games. The Wildcats had lost by double-digit margins at Georgetown and at Xavier. However, ?Nova beat Providence (73-62), Xavier (71-67 in overtime) and Seton Hall (74-72 in the finals) to win the league?s automatic bid and draw a No. 6 seed.

-- Eric Paschall led ?Nova past The Hall in the finals at MSG in NYC by scoring 17 points and pulling down eight rebounds. Saddiq Bey added 16 points, 10 rebounds, three assists, two steals and a pair of blocked shots. Phil Booth finished with 16 points, four boards and three assists, while Jermaine Samuels contributed 12 points and seven rebounds.

-- Villanova owns a 10-9 spread record in 19 games as a single-digit favorite.

-- Villanova has won two of the past three national championships. The key pieces that remain from those teams are Booth and Paschall, a pair of seniors. Booth averages team-highs in both scoring (18.6 PPG) and assists (3.8 APG), while Paschall (16.5 PPG) averages a team-best 6.2 RPG. Collin Gillespie (11.1 PPG) has a 94/51 assist-to-turnover ratio and paces the Wildcats in FT accuracy (83.5%). However, Gillespie is slumping and has scored in double figured only three times in the past 10 outings.

-- Saint Mary?s (22-11 SU, 19-14 ATS) was looking at an NIT bid until it went to Las Vegas and won the WCC Tournament with a 60-47 victory over Gonzaga as a 15-point underdog. Jordan Ford led the way with 17 points, while Jordan Hunter added 12 points and 15 rebounds. Tanner Krebs finished with 13 points and three steals.

-- Saint Mary?s has compiled a 2-4 spread record with one outright win in six games as an underdog.

-- Saint Mary?s has won seven of its past eight games with the lone defeat coming in its regular-season finale against Gonzaga.

-- Ford paces the Gaels in scoring (21.3 PPG) and has scored at least 15 points in eight consecutive contests. Malik Fitts (15.3 PPG, 7.6 RPG) is another double-figure scorer who has drained 40.3 percent of his 3-balls. Hunter provides an interior presence and averages 7.9 points, 6.8 rebounds and 1.4 blocked shots per game.

-- Randy Bennett?s team is ranked 29th in the country in scoring defense, limiting foes to 64.4 PPG. At the other end, the Gaels are 34th in the nation in 3-point accuracy (37.8%), 42nd in FG percentage (47.4%) and 48th in FT shooting (74.5%).

-- These schools last met in the second round of the 2010 NCAA Tournament when Saint Mary?s won a 75-68 decision as a four-point underdog. Omar Samhan buried 13-of-16 FGAs and scored a game-high 32 points. Matthew Dellavedova added 14 points for the Gaels.

-- The ?over? has hit in four consecutive Villanova games, but it has seen the ?under? go 19-12-2 overall.

-- The ?under? is on a 38-17-2 run for the Gaels in their past 57 games. They?ve seen the ?under? go 8-1 in their last nine games to improve to 19-13-1 overall this season.

West Region (Salt Lake City, UT)
No. 16 Fairleigh Dickinson vs. No. 1 Gonzaga (truTV, 7:27 PM EST)

Opening Odds: Gonzaga -27, 152 ?

-- As of Wednesday night, most spots had Mark Few?s team listed as a 27.5-point favorite with a total of 152.5. William Hill was offering FDU on the money line for 50/1 odds!

-- Gonzaga (30-3 SU, 21-12 ATS) has compiled a 17-10 spread record in 27 games as a double-digit ?chalk.?

-- Gonzaga has a 4-3 record against teams in the field. The Bulldogs have wins over Saint Mary?s (twice), Duke and Washington, but they?ve lost to Saint Mary?s, North Carolina and Tennessee. Other notable scalps include neutral-court wins over Arizona and Illinois, in addition to victories at Creighton and at home over Texas A&M.

-- Gonzaga is led by Rui Hachimura, who averages 20.1 points, 6.6 rebounds and 1.1 SPG. He?s hitting 60.9 percent of his FGAs and 46.9 percent of his treys. Brandon Clarke (16.5 PPG) leads the Bulldogs in rebounding (8.4 RPG), FG percentage (69.3%) and blocked shots (3.0 BPG). Zach Norvell is averaging 15.3 PPG and has a 99/43 assist-to-turnover ratio. Josh Perkins (11.0 PPG) paces Gonzaga in assists (6.4 APG) and steals (1.4 SPG), and he has a 212/68 assist-to-turnover ratio. Perkins has played in more games (149) than any other player in the country.

-- Gonzaga leads the nation in scoring (88.8 PPG), scoring margin (23.8 PPG) and FG percentage (53.2%). The Bulldogs are 16th nationally in FT percentage (76.7%).

-- Gonzaga has been to the NCAA Tournament 21 consecutive times. The Bulldogs are the nation?s only program that?s been to four straight Sweet 16s.

-- Fairleigh Dickinson (21-13 SU, 19-13 ATS) overcame a seven-point intermission deficit to rally for an 82-76 win over Prairie View A&M in Tuesday?s First Four showdown in Dayton. The Knights covered the number as two-point ?chalk,? while the 158 combined points went ?over? the 148.5-point total. Darnell Edge splashed the nets at a 7-of-9 clip from 3-point territory in a 33-point effort. Jahlil Jenkins took over at crunch time by making plays galore and finished with 22 points, four rebounds and six assists without a turnover.

-- Edge (16.9 PPG) was a first-team All-Northeast Conference selection who led the league in 3-point accuracy at 46.9 percent. Jenkins (13.8 PPG) leads the Knights in assists (4.6 APG) and steals (1.3 SPG).

-- FDU comes to Utah on a nine-game winning streak and it has an 8-1 spread record during this span.

-- FDU is 8-6 ATS with four outright wins in 14 games as an underdog. The Knights are 3-0 ATS as double-digit underdogs with one outright victory (at Princeton).

-- FDU is fifth in the country in 3-point shooting, draining 40.4 percent of their bombs from long distance.

-- The win over PVAM was the first in the Tournament in the 75-year history of FDU?s hoops program.

-- The ?under? is 17-16 overall for Gonzaga.

-- The ?under? is 17-15 overall for the Knights.

 

[Cnotes53]

Tourney Angles & Trends
March 20, 2019
By BetOnline.ag


Throughout the course of the season, the most wagered on teams to capture the title at BetOnline.ag were:
1. Duke
2. Kentucky
3. Virginia
4. North Carolina
5. Gonzaga

Since the bracket was set on Sunday, bettors haven't diverted much at BetOnline.ag:
1. Duke
2. Kentucky
3. Virginia
4. North Carolina
5. Gonzaga

At this point, the books only liability comes with Virginia. If the Cavaliers cut down the nets in Minneapolis, the book will lose on its season futures odds. The Cavs were bet anywhere from a high of 12/1 odds to a low of 5/1 odds.

BetOnline.ag was the first sportsbook to post spreads Sunday night for the Round of 64, and some of the odds have moved significantly based on betting action. Here are the teams where the spread has moved two or more points in their favor, indicating professional money is backing them:

Vermont +11 to +9 (vs. Florida State)
New Mexico State +8.5 to +5.5 (vs. Auburn)
Northeastern +8.5 to +6.5 (vs. Kansas)
UCF +1 to -1 (vs. VCU)

BetOnline.ag have offered up Tournament's seeded matchups in the Round of 64.

Listed below are historical odds information with spreads that date back to 1985, when the tournament field expanded to 64, and over/under totals that date back to 1991.

#1 vs. #16

Duke vs. NC Central/North Dakota State (N/A)
Virginia vs. Gardner-Webb (+23.5, 131)
North Carolina vs. Iona (+24.5, 166.5)
Gonzaga vs. Fairleigh Dickinson (N/A)

#1 Overall Record: 135-1
#16 Overall Record: 1-135

#1 ATS Record: 72-62-2
#16 ATS Record: 62-72-2

Largest spread: 46.5 (Duke vs. Florida A&M, 1999)
Smallest spread: 10.5 (Memphis vs. Oral Roberts, 2006)

#16 seeds have been underdogs of fewer than 20 points 20 times
#16 seeds have lost by fewer than 10 points just 16 times

Roy Williams is 28-0 during his career in R64 games
UNC has won 15 straight R64 games, the longest streak in tournament history

Duke has won its last three R64 games by at least 29 points (3-0 ATS)

The North Carolina-Iona over/under is the highest total in the R64 since 2007

The UNDER is 9-1 in Duke's last 10 games as a #1 seed

#2 vs. #15

Michigan State vs. Bradley (+18, 134)
Tennessee vs. Colgate (+17.5, 150.5)
Kentucky vs. Abilene Christian (+22.5, 132.5)
Michigan vs. Montana (+15.5, 131.5)

#2 Overall Record: 128-8
#15 Overall Record: 8-128

#2 ATS Record: 65-70-1
#15 ATS Record: 70-65-1

Largest spread: 28 (Syracuse vs. Brown, 1986)
Smallest spread: 6 (Tennessee vs. Winthrop, 2006)

#15 seeds have won a R64 game in four of the last five years
At least one #15 seed has covered the spread every year since 1985

The biggest upset in tournament history came from this matchup as #15 Norfolk (+21) defeated #2 Missouri (2012)

#3 vs. #14

LSU vs. Yale (+8, 159.5)
Purdue vs. Old Dominion (+13, 129)
Texas Tech vs. Northern Kentucky (+14, 137.5)
Houston vs. Georgia State (+12, 141.5)

#3 Overall Record: 115-21
#14 Overall Record: 21-115

#3 ATS Record: 68-67-1
#14 ATS Record: 67-68-1

Largest spread: 20 (Florida vs. Northwestern State, 2013)
Smallest spread: 3.5 (Marquette vs. Davidson, 2013)

#14 seeds have won at least one R64 game in 18 of the 34 tournaments

Georgia State upset Baylor (+9.5) and Wisconsin (+7) in its only prior R64 games

Since 1995, Purdue has been a #4 seed or better seven times but never advanced beyond S16

LSU is the only #3 seed in last three seasons to be a single-digit favorite

Houston is 1-5 SU and 1-5 ATS in the tournament since Phi Slamma Jamma (1983-84)

#4 vs. #13

Virginia Tech vs. Saint Louis (+10.5, 126.5)
Kansas State vs. UC Irvine (+5, 120)
Florida State vs. Vermont (+10.5, 134)
Kansas vs. Northeastern (+7, 145)

#4 Overall Record: 108-28
#13 Overall Record: 28-108

#4 ATS Record: 72-62-2
#13 ATS Record: 62-72-2

Largest spread: 16.5 (Cincinnati vs. Delaware, 1992)
Smallest spread: 2.5 (Vanderbilt vs. Murray State, 2010)

#13 seeds have won at least one R64 game in 24 of 34 tourneys
Two #13 seeds from same year have won in R64 four times, including last year

Since #4 Vermont upset #13 Syracuse (2005), it is 0-4 SU and 0-4 ATS in R64

This is the smallest spread Kansas has incurred in R64 since 2006 (lost to DePaul)

#5 vs. #12

Mississippi State vs. Liberty (+7, 136.5)
Wisconsin vs. Oregon (+1, 118)
Marquette vs. Murray State (+4.5, 149)
Auburn vs. New Mexico State (+6.5, 143.5)

#5 Overall Record: 89-47
#12 Overall Record: 47-89

#5 ATS Record: 64-68-4
#12 ATS Record: 68-64-4

Largest spread: 13 (Michigan State vs. New Mexico State, 2010)

#12 seeds have been favored seven times, going 5-2 SU and 4-2-1 ATS
#12 seeds have won at least one R64 game in 29 of 34 tourneys

Last year, #5 seeds went 4-0 SU and 4-0 ATS versus #12 seeds

The OVER is 10-1-1 in 5/12 matchups during last three tourneys

Auburn has never lost a R64 game, going 8-0 SU and 6-2 ATS

#6 vs. #11

Maryland vs. Belmont (+3, 147)
Villanova vs. St. Mary's (+5.5, 130.5)
Buffalo vs. Arizona State/St. John's (N/A)
Iowa State vs. Ohio State (+5.5, 141)

#6 Overall Record: 84-52
#11 Overall Record: 52-84

#6 ATS Record: 62-71-3
#11 ATS Record: 71-62-3

Largest spread: 11 (Xavier vs. Washington, 1998)
Average spread: 3.5

Since 2010, #11 seeds are 20-16 against #6 seeds. If a person bet $100 on the moneyline of every #11 seed over the last nine years the person would have earned $3,280

#11 seeds that are favored over #6 seeds are 10-5 SU and 10-5 ATS

The UNDER is 13-3 in 6/11 matchups during the last four tournaments

The last seven national champs (#6 Villanova this year) have gone 0-5 ATS in R64 (two did not qualify)

#7 vs. #10

Louisville vs. Minnesota (+5, 136.5)
Cincinnati vs. Iowa (+3.5, 138)
Nevada vs. Florida (+2, 133.5)
Wofford vs. Seton Hall (+3, 142.5)

#7 Overall Record: 85-51
#10 Overall Record: 51-85

#7 ATS Record: 78-55-3
#10 ATS Record: 55-78-3

Largest spread: 9 (Tulsa vs. UNLV, 2000)
Average spread: 1.6

#10 seeds that are favored over #7 seeds are 18-19 SU and 13-22-2 ATS
This marks the first year since 2014 that none of the #10 seeds are favored

#7 seeds have been favored by five points or more in just 15 of the 136 matchups

#8 vs. #9

VCU vs. UCF (-1, 127)
Ole Miss vs. Oklahoma (+2, 143)
Syracuse vs. Baylor (+2.5, 131.5)
Utah State vs. Washington (+2.5, 135.5)

#8 Overall Record: 69-67
#9 Overall Record: 67-69

#8 ATS Record: 66-68-2
#9 ATS Record: 68-66-2

Largest spread: 6 (Kentucky vs. Kansas State, 2014)
Average spread: 1.0

#9 seeds have been favored 53 times against #8 seeds and are 25-28 SU and 21-31-1 ATS in those games

No #8 seed has been favored by more than 6 points over a #9 seed

The 8/9 spreads have been 2 points or fewer either way in 63 of 136 matchups

Syracuse aims to become the second team in tournament history to cover 20 R64 games (Kansas, 21)

This marks the first year since 2011 that all four 8/9 spreads are fewer than 3 points

Oklahoma has failed to cover the spread in 19 of its 25 tournament games

 

[Cnotes53]

Thursday - Session 4
March 21, 2019
By Joe Williams

West Region (Des Moines, IA)
No. 15 Montana vs. No. 2 Michigan (TNT, 9:20 PM EST)

Opening Odds: Nevada -15, 130

-- Michigan (28-6 straight up, 19-15 against the spread) remains heavily favored as of Thursday morning, and they're not expected to fall in the late game in Iowa.

-- The Wolverines lost in the Big Ten Tournament final against their rivals from East Lansing by a 65-60 count, but they still managed to land on the two line which is good news. They picked up wins in the tourney against fellow tournament teams Minnesota, 76-49, and Iowa, 74-53, adding to their already impressive resume. The 'under' was 3-0 in their conference tournament run.

-- The Wolverines had trouble getting the basket into the hoop, ranking just 242nd in the nation with 70.4 points per game (PPG), and they were middling at 45.0 percent in the 3-point category. They're not a very good free-throw team, either, posting just 69.8 percent to rank 202nd in the country.

-- For Michigan, it's all about their defense, and a lot of it. They ranked second in the nation in scoring defense, yielding just 58.6 points per game. It is going to be hard for Montana to score, especially with an undersized unit. The Wolverines allowed just 28.9 percent of opposing 3-pointers to fall, too, ranking fifth in the land, while they were 19th in opponent field-goal percentage (39.9 percent).

-- Michigan carried an unblemished record into Wisconsin on Jan. 19, winning its first 17 games. However, the Badgers had other ideas that day, winning 64-54 with the Wolverines scoring a season-low in offense.

-- The Wolverines registered impressive, resume-building wins early in the season against North Carolina and Purdue, as well as a 27-point shellacking of defending champ Villanova back on Nov. 14. Their worst loss came at the hands of Iowa on the road, falling by 15 on Feb. 1 in Iowa City.

-- Ignas Brazdeikis led the way with 15.1 points per game (PPG), and he pulled down 5.2 rebounds per game (RPG), too while shooting 42.0 percent from behind the 3-point line. Jordan Poole (12.8 PPG) and Charles Matthews (12.0) were the only other two players to average double-digit points on offense, with center Jon Teske just on the outside looking in with 9.6 PPG. Teske pulled down 6.9 RPG, too, while swatting a team-high 73 shots.

-- Michigan didn't win or cover in their last outing, and that's a good thing for side bettors. The Wolverines are 5-0 ATS in the past five after a non-cover, and 14-3 ATS in the past 17 following a straight-up loss.

-- Montana (26-8 SU, 14-18 ATS) won the Big Sky Conference, beating Eastern Washington by six points to narrowly cover a 5 1/2-point number. The Griz recovered from a late-season swoon which saw them lose two games down the stretch against Northern Colorado and at Portland State, which made them look mortal.

-- The Grizzlies recovered in the conference tournament, however, topping Sacramento State in the opening round, 79-73, before knocking off Weber State by 29 points in their most impressive outing in some time. They covererd back-to-back games with their six-point win over EWU, their first time since Feb. 14-16 covering in consecutive games.

-- Montana is appearing in the Big Dance for the 12th time in school history, and they've posted a 2-12 record all-time. They scored a win over Utah State back in 1975, as well as a win as a 12-seed over 5-seed Nevada back in 2006.

-- The Griz won 15 of the final 17 games, and they're back as conference champs for a second consecutive season. They won the regular-season and tournament titles in back-to-back seasons, becoming the fifth program in Big Sky Conference history to ever accomplish that feat.

-- Montana averaged 76.8 PPG this season, and they ranked eighth in the country hitting at a 49.7-percent clip from the floor. They also rained in 38.2 percent from behind the arc, 25th in the nation, but they'll still have a rough matchups against a tremendous Michigan defense.

-- Montana did score wins over fellow NCAA Tournament teams with an 81-74 victory over Georgia State in the opener, as well as a 60-53 decision against North Dakota State of the Summit League. They fell 60-51 on the road against UC Irvine, another tournament team, back on Dec. 8.

-- Like UF, Nevada is also in the Tournament for a third straight season. Musselman led the Wolf Pack to the Sweet 16 last year before losing by one to Loyola-Chicago in a thriller. They have a 6-8 record in 14 Tournament games.

-- The Griz are 1-6 ATS in the past seven non-conference games, and they're 1-4 ATS in the past five NCAA Tournament games. They also have a poor 5-12 ATS mark in the past 17 neutral-site battles.

-- The 'under' has cashed in four of Montana's past five NCAA Tournament outings.

Midwest Region (Jacksonville, FL)
No. 10 Seton Hall vs. No. 7 Wofford (CBS, 9:40 PM EST)

Opening Odds: Wofford -2?, 145

-- The NCAA Tournament awarded Southern Conference champion Wofford (29-4 SU, 19-11 ATS) with a seven-seed, and they are hoping that they're amazing run doesn't end in the first round against the Big East runners-up. Vegas expects the game to be very close, as all shops are looking for this to be a one-possession game.

-- The final game of the night in Jacksonville should be a good one, and the small South Carolina school didn't have far to travel from the upstate to Northeast Florida.

-- Like they did during SoCon play during the regular season, Wofford was unbeaten in the conference tournament. They ended the NCAA dreams of UNC-Greensboro by 70-58 in the final game, covering an eight-point number. They squashed East Tennesse State by nine in the semis, and hammered an overwhelmed VMI by 27 points in the quarters. In fact, the last time the Terriers walked off the court as losers was back on Dec. 19 at Mississippi State, 98-87. In other words, it hasn't happened often.

-- Wofford used a combination of tremendous offense and decent defense to make their way to Jacksonville. They scored 83.0 PPG to rank 12th in the country, and this is the nation's second-best 3-pointer team, hitting to the tune of 41.6 percent. If they have an Achilles' heel, and that could factor in a close game, they were just 69.8 percent from the charity stripe, ranking a mediocre 198th.

-- Wofford allowed just 65.6 PPG, good for 40th in the land, and they allowed just 26.8 opposing rebounds, best in the country.

-- For the Terriers, all eyes will be on Fletcher Magee, who dropped 20.5 PPG this season while hitting triples at a 42.8-percent clip in his 33 games. Cameron Jackson offers some nice secondary scoring up front, posting 14.6 PPG, and he was second on the team in assists with 90. Nathan Hoover didn't vacuum up many rebounds, but he offers nice tertiary scoring at 13.2 PPG.

-- Wofford is 5-0 ATS in the past five neutral-site games and 11-1 ATS across their past 12 overall. They also enter on a 6-0 ATS run against teams with an overall winning record.

-- Seton Hall (20-13 SU, 17-16 ATS) overachieved again in the Big East Tournament, and almost ended up as champs. They fell 74-72 in the final against the defending national champion Villanova Wildcats, covering a 4 1/2-point number. In fact, the Pirates enter Thursday night's game with five covers in a row.

-- The Pirates didnd't start out so hot, but they ended up recording some impressive victories while jelling as a team. The galvanizing moment of the season might have been on Dec. 8 when they nipped Kentucky in overtime, 84-83, back on Dec. 8 in a neutral-site game. They also posted wins over tournament teams St. John's on Dec. 29 and Marquette at home on March 6. They avenged a 28-point loss to Villanova in the first regular-season meeting, winning 79-75 in the regular-season finale at home in New Jersey.

-- Seton Hall was very middle of the road this season in all aspects. They ranked 137th in points scored (73.9 PPG), while posting a 44.1 percent mark from the floor, good for 196th. They were also a dismal 32.4 percent from long distance, ranking 282nd in the country.

-- On defense, they're rather middle of the road, too. They allowed 71.5 PPG, good for 181st in the land, while their field-goal percentage on defense was a little better at 109th in the nation, yielding a mark of 42.7 percent. Their so-so size also afforded other teams a lot of second-chance points, although that won't be an issue against Wofford most likely.

-- Myles Powell was a one-man wrecking crew for the Pirates, posting 22.9 PPG. The next-closest scorer on offense was Myles Cale at 10.3 PPG. The next non-Myles scorer was named Quincy McKnight, and he was good for 9.5 PPG while dishing out a team-best 131 assists.

-- Seton Hall enters the tournament 5-0 ATS over the past five, and they're 19-7-1 ATS in the past 27 neutral-site games. They have also covered five in a row against teams with a winning overall record.

-- This is the first-ever meeting between these two schools on the hardwood.

South Region (Hartford, CT)
No. 14 Old Dominion vs. No. 3 Purdue (TBS, 9:50 PM EST)

Opening Odds: Purdue -12?, 127

-- Purdue (23-9 SU, 17-14 ATS) from the Big Ten Tournament is expected to roll over the Monarchs in this 3-14 matchup, with the line well into double digits. Not many are expecting the Boilermakers to have any trouble with the Conference USA representatives.

-- Purdue got off to a bit of a sluggish start early in the season, losing games to Virginia Tech, Florida State and Michigan. However, those teams are not only NCAA Tournament teams, but they're high seeds, too. No shame in that. They did lose back-to-back games to Texas and Notre Dame on Dec. 9-15, a pair of non-tournament teams, but it was clear sailing after that wake-up call. They had a 10-point win over Michigan State on Jan. 27, they blasted Ohio State by 35 points on March 2, and they also topped Belmont by 11 back on Dec. 29, another tournament team.

-- The Boilermakers racked up 76.2 PPG on offense, good for 86th in the country, and they were 44.6 percent from the field, landing them in the 164th spot in the country. They hit triples to the tune of 36.4 percent, good for 80th overall, and they're an OK free-throw team at 73.2 percent.

-- On defense, Purdue isn't quite Michigan caliber, but they're still pretty good. They ranked 57th in the land, giving up just 66.8 PPG. They have nice size and do not give up many second chances, checking in 28th in the nation with just 28.3 rebounds per game allowed.

-- It's all about Carsen Edwards for the Boilermakers, as he averaged a stellar 23.0 PPG while hitting 84.3 percent from the free-throw line. They'll want the ball in his hands late. Ryan Cline is also a decent scorer, posting 11.9 PPG, and he led the team with 107 assists while hitting 41.8 percent of his triples. Matt Haarms is sufficient down low, swatting a team-best 79 shots while hitting for 9.0 PPG at a 62.7 percent clip.

-- Purdue enters the day just 1-5 ATS in the past six against winning overall teams, and they're 3-8 ATS in the past 11 neutral-site battles. However, they're also 23-11 ATS in the past 34 games outside of the Big Ten Conference.

-- Old Dominion (26-8 SU, 15-19 ATS) had a very nice overall season, although fellow C-USA foes felt they could be had after dropping the final two regular-season games against Southern Miss and UAB. They ran through their tournament with narrow, character-building wins. They topped Louisiana Tech 57-56 in the C-USA quarters, they avenged a loss to UAB, 61-59, in the semis, and nipped Western Kentucky 62-56 to win the title as a 2 1/2-point underdog.

-- ODU was a dreadful 315th in the country on offense, posting just 66.2 PPG, and their field-goal percentage was obviously poor, too, at an unsightly 41.1 percent, 320th in the country. They did manage to at least give themselves plenty of second and third opportunities to get it right, posting 38.9 boards per outing, good for 25th in the land.

-- On the defensive side of the ball, that's where ODU's bread is buttered. They rank seventh in the country with just 60.8 PPG allowed, and they were ninth in defensive field-goal percentage. If teams have success against them, it's launching the three-ball, hitting at 32.5 percent, as the Monarchs were just 77th overall in that department.

-- B.J. Stith and Ahmad Caver are the two players to watch for the Monarchs. Stith average a team-best 16.9 PPG, with Caver right on his heels at 16.5 PPG. Caver has tremendous court vision, and he was among the nation's best with 191 assists in just 34 games, while recording 48 steals. ODU will want Stith handling the ball late, as he was a stellar 84.5 percent from the charity stripe.

-- The Monarchs enter the tournament just 1-6 ATS over the past seven. However, total bettors will notice the 'under' is a perfect 7-0 during that stretch.

-- These teams last met on Nov. 21, 2015, with Purdue adminstering a 61-39 beating on a neutral-site floor.

West Region (Salt Lake City, UT)
No. 9 Baylor vs. No. 8 Syracuse (truTV, 9:57 PM EST)

Opening Odds: Syracuse -1 ?, 130

-- Syracuse (20-13 SU, 18-14 ATS) will look to kick off another run in the NCAA Tournament, but they'll have to do so in an 8-9 matchup which is expected to be a coin-flip. They have shown an ability to make some noise and beat the nation's elite at times, while checking out against inferior opponents at other times.

-- The Orange had a huge 95-91 overtime victory at Cameron Indoor Stadium against Duke on Jan. 14, and that set them on a thre-game run before falling at Virginia Tech on Jan. 26. However, they lost some bad games, too, including a 15-point loss to NIT-bound N.C. State on Feb. 13, and a 12-point humbling from a mediocre Clemson side in the regular-season finale. They also lost to fellow tournament teams Old Dominion by six on Dec. 15, and against Buffalo on Dec. 18 by 12 points.

-- The offense for Syracuse was rather so-so. They managed 69.7 PPG this season, good for 258th in the land, and they didn't hit 3-pointers very well either, good for 253rd overall, making roughly one in every three attemp. They're not a great free-throw team, either, and most bettors picking them are simply buying stock in head coach Jim Boeheim and his ability to get his squad ready.

-- On defense, 'Cuse can be stingy. They allowed just 65.7 PPG, good for 41st overall, and their field-goal percentage was better than most at 39.8 percent, or 17th in the country. They did allow 32.4 rebounds per game, an area they'll need vast improvement in a hurry if they want to stick around a while in the Big Dance.

-- Tyus Battle scored 17.2 PPG to lead the way, with Elijah Hughes (13.4 PPG) and Oshae Brissett (12.4 PPG) the other two top options when scoring the basketball. Battle also hit 43.2 percent while turning it over just 53 times in 31 games, so he takes good care of the rock.

-- The Orange enter this game 4-0 ATS over the past four NCAA Tournament games, and 5-2-1 ATS in the past eight neutral-site battles. They're also 5-2 ATS in the past seven against Big 12 foes.

-- The 'under' is 10-4 in their past 14 NCAA Tournament games, although the 'over' is 5-0 in their past five neutral-site affairs.

-- Baylor (19-13 SU, 15-15-2 ATS) looks to pick up a 20th win in the best fashion, in an NCAA Tournament game. Even in an 8-9 coin-flip game, it seems a lot of people are leaning to the more experienced Orange.

-- The Bears are battled tested, too, having won plenty in the rough and tumble Big 12. They did finish on a four-game losing streak, however, bowing out in the conference tournament by a 83-66 score to eventual champ Iowa State.

-- Baylor scored impressive wins, including a season sweep of Oklahoma. They pounded the Sooner by 30 in Norman back on Jan. 28. They also humbled TCU by 26 points on Feb. 2, and notched a 73-70 win over Iowa State in Waco. But consistency was an issue, and they had their doors blown off by 35 at Texas Tech on Feb. 16, and suffered losses to non-tournament teams Texas and Oklahoma State, too.

-- Baylor isn't terribly gifted on offense, ranking 203rd in the country with 71.7 PPG. They also hit just 44.0 percent from the field, 199th in the country. They don't shoot the trey well, either, registering just 211th with 34.0 percent from downtown.

-- On defense the Bears hold their own, allowing 67.2 PPG, good for 63rd in the nation. And they didn't allow many second-chance points, either, shutting down the opposition with just 28.6 boards per outing, 34th among all teams.

-- Baylor boasts rather balanced scoring, as three players averaged double digits this season. Their leading scorer, however, F Tristan Clark, was lost during the season after just 14 games, and that sent them off the rails a bit. He was also the leading rebounder at the time, so Mark Vital had to step up, as did Mario Kegler. Still, they miss Clark in the frontcourt - badly.

-- The Bears are ice-cold in most ATS trends, going 1-8-2 ATS over the past 11 games, and they're 0-3-1 ATS in their past four tries aginst teams with a winning overall mark. They're also 1-5 ATS in the past six NCAA Tournament games.

-- The 'under' has cashed in eight straight non-confernce games for Baylor, but the 'over' is 15-5 in their past 20 overall.

-- These teams last met on a neutral-site floor back on Nov. 27, 2013, with Syracuse besting Baylor 74-67.

 

[Cnotes53]

NCAAB
Dunkel

Thursday, March 21


Minnesota @ Louisville

Game 773-774
March 21, 2019 @ 12:15 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Minnesota
67.924
Louisville
68.938
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Louisville
by 1
126
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Louisville
by 5
136
Dunkel Pick:
Minnesota
(+5); Under

Yale @ LSU

Game 767-768
March 21, 2019 @ 12:40 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Yale
62.405
LSU
66.272
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
LSU
by 4
160
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LSU
by 7
157
Dunkel Pick:
Yale
(+7); Over

New Mexico St @ Auburn

Game 781-782
March 21, 2019 @ 1:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
New Mexico St
70.454
Auburn
72.480
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Auburn
by 2
152
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Auburn
by 6
145 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
New Mexico St
(+6); Over

Vermont @ Florida State

Game 763-764
March 21, 2019 @ 2:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Vermont
64.770
Florida State
70.285
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Florida State
by 5 1/2
138
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Florida State
by 9
133 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Vermont
(+9); Over

Bradley @ Michigan State

Game 775-776
March 21, 2019 @ 2:45 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Bradley
57.584
Michigan State
74.001
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Michigan State
by 16 1/2
130
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Michigan State
by 18 1/2
133 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Bradley
(+18 1/2); Under

Belmont @ Maryland

Game 765-766
March 21, 2019 @ 3:10 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Belmont
66.999
Maryland
65.431
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Belmont
by 1 1/2
151
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Maryland
by 3
146 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Belmont
(+3); Over

Northeastern @ Kansas

Game 783-784
March 21, 2019 @ 4:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Northeastern
63.255
Kansas
66.250
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Kansas
by 3
134
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Kansas
by 6 1/2
143
Dunkel Pick:
Northeastern
(+6 1/2); Under

Murray State @ Marquette

Game 761-762
March 21, 2019 @ 4:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Murray State
67.424
Marquette
65.924
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Murray State
by 1 1/2
158
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Marquette
by 3 1/2
149 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Murray State
(+3 1/2); Over

Florida @ Nevada

Game 777-778
March 21, 2019 @ 6:50 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Florida
65.527
Nevada
71.617
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Nevada
by 6
126
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Nevada
by 2 1/2
133
Dunkel Pick:
Nevada
(-2 1/2); Under

Florida Atlantic @ Charleston Southern

Game 793-794
March 21, 2019 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Florida Atlantic
52.347
Charleston Southe
54.288
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Charleston Southe
by 2
144
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Charleston Southe
by 4 1/2
141
Dunkel Pick:
Florida Atlantic
(+4 1/2); Over

St. Francis-NY @ Hampton

Game 795-796
March 21, 2019 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
St. Francis-NY
45.164
Hampton
50.598
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Hampton
by 5 1/2
147
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Hampton
by 9 1/2
157 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
St. Francis-NY
(+9 1/2); Under

Abilene Christian @ Kentucky

Game 771-772
March 21, 2019 @ 7:10 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Abilene Christian
54.416
Kentucky
77.819
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Kentucky
by 23 1/2
127
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Kentucky
by 22
132
Dunkel Pick:
Kentucky
(-22); Under

St Mary's @ Villanova

Game 757-758
March 21, 2019 @ 7:20 pm

Dunkel Rating:
St Mary's
66.513
Villanova
73.119
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Villanova
by 6 1/2
123
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Villanova
by 4
130 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Villanova
(-4); Under

Fair Dickinson @ Gonzaga

Game 785-786
March 21, 2019 @ 7:27 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Fair Dickinson
51.288
Gonzaga
81.435
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Gonzaga
by 30
160
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Gonzaga
by 27 1/2
152 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Gonzaga
(-27 1/2); Over

Kent State @ LA-Monroe

Game 891-892
March 21, 2019 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Kent State
53.664
LA-Monroe
59.371
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
LA-Monroe
by 5 1/2
162
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA-Monroe
by 3 1/2
153 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
LA-Monroe
(-3 1/2); Over

Montana @ Michigan

Game 779-780
March 21, 2019 @ 9:20 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Montana
56.822
Michigan
77.398
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Michigan
by 19
139
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Michigan
by 15
130
Dunkel Pick:
Michigan
(-15); Over

Seton Hall @ Wofford

Game 769-770
March 21, 2019 @ 9:40 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Seton Hall
64.532
Wofford
69.018
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Wofford
by 4 1/2
135
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Wofford
by 2 1/2
144 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Wofford
(-2 1/2); Under

Old Dominion @ Purdue

Game 759-760
March 21, 2019 @ 9:50 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Old Dominion
57.724
Purdue
77.453
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Purdue
by 19 1/2
117
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Purdue
by 12 1/2
126
Dunkel Pick:
Purdue
(-12 1/2); Under

Baylor @ Syracuse

Game 787-788
March 21, 2019 @ 9:57 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Baylor
64.194
Syracuse
67.730
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Syracuse
by 3 1/2
127
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Syracuse
by 1 1/2
130 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Syracuse
(-1 1/2); Under

CS-Bakersfield @ CS-Fullerton

Game 889-890
March 21, 2019 @ 10:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
CS-Bakersfield
46.203
CS-Fullerton
56.224
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
CS-Fullerton
by 10
131
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
CS-Fullerton
by 6 1/2
138 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
CS-Fullerton
(-6 1/2); Under

 

[Cnotes53]

NCAAB
Long Sheet

Thursday, March 21

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


ST MARYS-CA (22 - 11) vs. VILLANOVA (25 - 9) - 3/21/2019, 7:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ST MARYS-CA is 84-116 ATS (-43.6 Units) as an underdog since 1997.
ST MARYS-CA is 90-119 ATS (-40.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games since 1997.
VILLANOVA is 48-26 ATS (+19.4 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
VILLANOVA is 48-26 ATS (+19.4 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
VILLANOVA is 43-26 ATS (+14.4 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
VILLANOVA is 17-4 ATS (+12.6 Units) in all neutral court games over the last 2 seasons.
VILLANOVA is 17-4 ATS (+12.6 Units) when playing on a neutral court over the last 2 seasons.
VILLANOVA is 24-8 ATS (+15.2 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
VILLANOVA is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) in all tournament games over the last 2 seasons.
VILLANOVA is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in a NCAA tournament games over the last 2 seasons.
VILLANOVA is 44-21 ATS (+20.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
VILLANOVA is 28-14 ATS (+12.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last 2 seasons.


Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


OLD DOMINION (26 - 8) vs. PURDUE (23 - 9) - 3/21/2019, 9:50 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OLD DOMINION is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in March games over the last 3 seasons.
OLD DOMINION is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) after a conference game this season.
OLD DOMINION is 4-11 ATS (-8.1 Units) off a win against a conference rival this season.
OLD DOMINION is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) in road games after allowing 60 points or less this season.
OLD DOMINION is 152-202 ATS (-70.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1997.
OLD DOMINION is 7-17 ATS (-11.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last 2 seasons.


Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


MURRAY ST (27 - 4) vs. MARQUETTE (24 - 9) - 3/21/2019, 4:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MARQUETTE is 59-38 ATS (+17.2 Units) in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game since 1997.
MURRAY ST is 19-10 ATS (+8.0 Units) in all games this season.
MURRAY ST is 19-10 ATS (+8.0 Units) in all lined games this season.
MARQUETTE is 29-50 ATS (-26.0 Units) in road games in March games since 1997.


Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


VERMONT (27 - 6) vs. FLORIDA ST (27 - 7) - 3/21/2019, 2:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
FLORIDA ST is 96-69 ATS (+20.1 Units) when the total is 130 to 139.5 since 1997.
FLORIDA ST is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons.
FLORIDA ST is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game this season.


Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


BELMONT (27 - 5) vs. MARYLAND (22 - 10) - 3/21/2019, 3:10 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BELMONT is 19-10 ATS (+8.0 Units) in all games this season.
BELMONT is 19-10 ATS (+8.0 Units) in all lined games this season.
BELMONT is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
BELMONT is 29-16 ATS (+11.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.


Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


YALE (22 - 7) vs. LSU (26 - 6) - 3/21/2019, 12:40 PM
Top Trends for this game.
YALE is 8-18 ATS (-11.8 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
LSU is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons.
LSU is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game this season.
YALE is 91-65 ATS (+19.5 Units) in road games after a conference game since 1997.
YALE is 54-32 ATS (+18.8 Units) after scoring 80 points or more since 1997.


Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


SETON HALL (20 - 13) vs. WOFFORD (29 - 4) - 3/21/2019, 9:40 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WOFFORD is 51-35 ATS (+12.5 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
WOFFORD is 51-35 ATS (+12.5 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
WOFFORD is 14-7 ATS (+6.3 Units) as a favorite this season.
WOFFORD is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games in March games over the last 2 seasons.
WOFFORD is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in road games after a conference game this season.
WOFFORD is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in road games off a win against a conference rival this season.
WOFFORD is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
WOFFORD is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season.
SETON HALL is 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
SETON HALL is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in all neutral court games this season.
SETON HALL is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in a neutral court game where the total is 140 to 144.5 over the last 2 seasons.
SETON HALL is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in March games over the last 2 seasons.
SETON HALL is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) when playing on a neutral court this season.
SETON HALL is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in all tournament games this season.
SETON HALL is 12-5 ATS (+6.5 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game this season.


Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


ABILENE CHRISTIAN (27 - 6) vs. KENTUCKY (27 - 6) - 3/21/2019, 7:10 PM
Top Trends for this game.
KENTUCKY is 92-65 ATS (+20.5 Units) in March games since 1997.


Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


MINNESOTA (21 - 13) vs. LOUISVILLE (20 - 13) - 3/21/2019, 12:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MINNESOTA is 95-132 ATS (-50.2 Units) in road games after a conference game since 1997.
MINNESOTA is 26-45 ATS (-23.5 Units) in road games after scoring 60 points or less since 1997.


Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


BRADLEY (20 - 14) vs. MICHIGAN ST (28 - 6) - 3/21/2019, 2:45 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MICHIGAN ST is 24-10 ATS (+13.0 Units) in all games this season.
MICHIGAN ST is 24-10 ATS (+13.0 Units) in all lined games this season.
MICHIGAN ST is 22-8 ATS (+13.2 Units) as a favorite this season.
MICHIGAN ST is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) after a conference game this season.
MICHIGAN ST is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) off a win against a conference rival this season.
MICHIGAN ST is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) after allowing 60 points or less this season.
MICHIGAN ST is 20-6 ATS (+13.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
MICHIGAN ST is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season.


Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


FLORIDA (19 - 15) vs. NEVADA (29 - 4) - 3/21/2019, 6:50 PM
Top Trends for this game.
FLORIDA is 7-14 ATS (-8.4 Units) when the total is 130 to 139.5 this season.
NEVADA is 57-41 ATS (+11.9 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
NEVADA is 57-41 ATS (+11.9 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
NEVADA is 51-35 ATS (+12.5 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
NEVADA is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) when playing with 5 or 6 days rest over the last 3 seasons.
NEVADA is 67-41 ATS (+21.9 Units) off a loss against a conference rival since 1997.
NEVADA is 39-25 ATS (+11.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
FLORIDA is 81-53 ATS (+22.7 Units) in all tournament games since 1997.
FLORIDA is 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) in first round tournament games since 1997.
FLORIDA is 38-22 ATS (+13.8 Units) in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game after 15+ games since 1997.


Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


MONTANA (26 - 8) vs. MICHIGAN (28 - 6) - 3/21/2019, 9:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MICHIGAN is 44-28 ATS (+13.2 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
MICHIGAN is 44-28 ATS (+13.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
MICHIGAN is 35-24 ATS (+8.6 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
MICHIGAN is 19-7 ATS (+11.3 Units) in all neutral court games over the last 3 seasons.
MICHIGAN is 28-16 ATS (+10.4 Units) after a conference game over the last 2 seasons.
MICHIGAN is 19-7 ATS (+11.3 Units) when playing on a neutral court over the last 3 seasons.
MICHIGAN is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) off a loss against a conference rival over the last 2 seasons.
MICHIGAN is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games after scoring 60 points or less over the last 2 seasons.
MICHIGAN is 19-7 ATS (+11.3 Units) in all tournament games over the last 3 seasons.
MICHIGAN is 17-8 ATS (+8.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
MICHIGAN is 26-13 ATS (+11.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last 2 seasons.


Head-to-Head Series History
MICHIGAN is 1-0 against the spread versus MONTANA over the last 3 seasons
MICHIGAN is 1-0 straight up against MONTANA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


NEW MEXICO ST (30 - 4) vs. AUBURN (26 - 9) - 3/21/2019, 1:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW MEXICO ST is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) as a neutral court underdog of 3.5 to 6 points since 1997.
NEW MEXICO ST is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) after scoring 80 points or more this season.
NEW MEXICO ST is 43-26 ATS (+14.4 Units) in March games since 1997.


Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


NORTHEASTERN (23 - 10) vs. KANSAS (25 - 9) - 3/21/2019, 4:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NORTHEASTERN is 19-10 ATS (+8.0 Units) when the total is 140 to 149.5 over the last 2 seasons.
NORTHEASTERN is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when playing with 7 or more days rest over the last 3 seasons.
NORTHEASTERN is 14-6 ATS (+7.4 Units) after a conference game this season.


Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


FARLEIGH DICKINSON (21 - 13) vs. GONZAGA (30 - 3) - 3/21/2019, 7:27 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GONZAGA is 20-12 ATS (+6.8 Units) in all games this season.
GONZAGA is 20-12 ATS (+6.8 Units) in all lined games this season.
GONZAGA is 15-3 ATS (+11.7 Units) when the total is 150 to 159.5 this season.
GONZAGA is 19-11 ATS (+6.9 Units) as a favorite this season.
FARLEIGH DICKINSON is 17-8 ATS (+8.2 Units) in all games this season.
FARLEIGH DICKINSON is 17-8 ATS (+8.2 Units) in all lined games this season.
FARLEIGH DICKINSON is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in March games over the last 3 seasons.
FARLEIGH DICKINSON is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) when playing with one or less days rest this season.
FARLEIGH DICKINSON is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in all tournament games over the last 3 seasons.
FARLEIGH DICKINSON is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games since 1997.


Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


BAYLOR (19 - 13) vs. SYRACUSE (20 - 13) - 3/21/2019, 9:57 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SYRACUSE is 14-6 ATS (+7.4 Units) when the total is 130 to 139.5 this season.
SYRACUSE is 83-58 ATS (+19.2 Units) in all neutral court games since 1997.
SYRACUSE is 83-58 ATS (+19.2 Units) when playing on a neutral court since 1997.
SYRACUSE is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) off a loss against a conference rival this season.
SYRACUSE is 83-59 ATS (+18.1 Units) in all tournament games since 1997.
BAYLOR is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) after allowing 80 points or more over the last 2 seasons.


Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


FLA ATLANTIC (17 - 15) at CHARLESTON SO (17 - 15) - 3/21/2019, 3:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
FLA ATLANTIC is 20-36 ATS (-19.6 Units) after allowing 60 points or less since 1997.
FLA ATLANTIC is 10-20 ATS (-12.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
CHARLESTON SO is 11-4 ATS (+6.6 Units) after a conference game this season.


Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


ST FRANCIS-NY (17 - 15) at HAMPTON (15 - 16) - 3/21/2019, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
HAMPTON is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in all home games this season.
HAMPTON is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in home lined games this season.


Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


CS-BAKERSFIELD (16 - 15) at CS-FULLERTON (16 - 17) - 3/21/2019, 10:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CS-BAKERSFIELD is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) in March games since 1997.
CS-BAKERSFIELD is 18-6 ATS (+11.4 Units) after a conference game since 1997.
CS-FULLERTON is 11-20 ATS (-11.0 Units) in all games this season.
CS-FULLERTON is 11-20 ATS (-11.0 Units) in all lined games this season.
CS-FULLERTON is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) in all home games this season.
CS-FULLERTON is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) in home lined games this season.
CS-FULLERTON is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) in home games after a conference game this season.
CS-FULLERTON is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.


Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


KENT ST (22 - 10) at LA-MONROE (18 - 15) - 3/21/2019, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA-MONROE is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
KENT ST is 44-25 ATS (+16.5 Units) in road games after scoring 80 points or more since 1997.


Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

 

[Cnotes53]

NCAAB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Thursday, March 21

Thursday?s games
Richard Pitino vs the school that canned his father two years ago; Gophers won four of last six games- they don?t take many 3?s or sub a lot. Cardinals are 4-8 in last 12 games after a 16-5 start; they?re a top 20 team nationally in defensive eFG%. Pitino lost 81-72 as a 5-seed in his only NCAA game as a head coach, in 2017. Mack is 11-8 in NCAA games, 6-2 in first round. Last six years, favorites are 16-8 vs spread in 7-10 games. Last four years, ACC teams are 22-8 in first round; they?re 3-6 vs spread in last nine tries as a 1st round underdog. Louisville won its last five first round games. Big 14 teams are 19-7 in last 26 first round games.

LSU is experience team #324 whose coach is suspended for NCAA stuff; they lost in first round of SEC tourney LW. Tigers are a vulnerable favorite here. Yale upset Baylor 79-75 (+6) in a 5-12 game three years ago, their first NCAA game since 1959; Bulldogs shoot 37.4% on arc- they?re #33 experience team that lost in OT at Memphis but lost by 33 at Duke. LSU forces turnovers 20.7% of time; are they just too athletic for Yale? Ivy League teams split their last six first round games (5-1 vs spread). Last six years, underdogs are 14-10 vs spread in 3-14 games. Since 2014, SEC teams are 3-8 vs spread as a single digit favorite in first round games.

New Mexico State hasn?t lost since Jan 3; WAC doesn?t get on TV much, but they?re conference #14- Aggies lost by 3 to Kansas, by 15 to St Mary?s last fall. State lost by 11 to Clemson in NCAA?s LY; they?re experience team #73 that makes 56.6% of its 2?s, 36.2% of its 3?s. Auburn won SEC tourney last week; Tigers won their last eight games; they force turnovers 25.4% of time, #1 in country. Last 11 years, WAC teams are 0-12 SU in NCAA games, 4-8 vs spread; their last SU win was Nevada in 2007. Since 2014, SEC teams are 3-8 vs spread as a single digit favorite in first round gamesLast four years, favorites are 9-7 vs spread in 5-12 games.

Vermont is 24-3 in its last 27 games; last fall, they lost by 8 at Louisville, 16 at Kansas. Becker is 0-2 in NCAA games, losing by 19-10 points (0-2 vs spread) in NCAA games in ?12, ?17. Over last eight years, America East teams are 5-3 vs spread in this round. Catamounts are experience team #251 that plays tempo #285. Florida State forces turnovers 20.3% of time; Seminoles are experience team #82 that won 14 of last 16 games, losing ACC tourney final to Duke. Last five years, ACC teams are 6-12 vs spread as a double digit favorite in this round. Last five years, underdogs are 12-8 vs spread in 4-13 games.

Belmont played four starters 33:00+ in its 80-71 win over Temple Tuesday; Bruins got only five points from their star Windler, but scored 80 anyway. Belmont won at UCLA, lost at Purdue by 11 in its two games vs Power 5 opponents; they?re experience team #250 whose eFG% is #3 in whole country. Maryland went 13-7 in Big 14; they?re 3-4 in last seven games. Terrapins are #350 experience team whose defensive eFG% is #17 in country, but they don?t force many turnovers, only 14.3 per game. Maryland is 9-2 outside Big 14, losing to Virginia/Seton Hall by total of nine points. Turgeon is 8-8 in NCAA games, 6-2 in first round games.

Bradley is in NCAA?s for first time in 13 years; they beat Penn State by 3 in November, in their only top 100 game this season. Braves are experience team #65 that plays slowish pace and makes 36.8% of its 3?s- they haven?t played in 11 days, since Arch Madness ended. Michigan State won Big 14 tourney Sunday; last seven years. they?re 5-2 vs spread in first round games. Spartans won five in row, 10 of last 11 games; they?re experience team #138 whose defensive eFG% is #6 in country. Since 2013, MVC teams are 9-0 SU in this round, and were underdogs in four of those games. MVC teams covered 10 of their last 14 first round games.

Northeastern won seven in row, 16 of last 18 games; they?re experience team #59 that plays pace #252 and shoots 38.8% on arc- their eFG% is #5 in country. Huskies last made NCAAs in 2015, losing 69-65 (+12) as a 14-seed. CAA teams are 0-6 SU in this round the last six years, covering five of those games; since 2009, CAA teams are 11-2 vs spread in this round. Kansas didn?t win regular season or Big X tourney title this year; Jayhawks won last 12 first round games, going 3-0-1 vs spread in last four- last time they lost in first round was last time they were a #4-seed, in 2006. Last five years, underdogs are 12-8 vs spread in 4-13 games.

Murray State won its last 11 games; they?re #234 experience team that shoots 57.2% inside arc, has #21 eFG% in country. Racers lost 85-68 to West Virginia in first round LY; they lost by 5 to Auburn, by 6 to Alabama this year. Marquette lost five of its last six games; they?re shooting 39.3% on arc this season. OVC teams are 0-6 in this round (3-3 vs spread) the last six years; last OVC to win a game was Murray as a #6-seed in 2012 (they lost to Marquette in 2nd round that year). Last four years, favorites are 9-7 vs spread in 5-12 games.

Nevada is 5-3 in its last eight games after starting season 24-1; Wolf Pack starts five 5th-year seniors; their starting 5 are older than the Phoenix Suns? starters. Wolf Pack shoots 55.1% inside arc, gets 21% of its points from foul line. Florida plays a slow (#346) pace; they force turnovers 22.6% of time. Gators are #271 experience team; they lost four of last six games. Since 2003, Mountain West teams are 14-25 in first round games, 3-5 the last five years; since ?04, SEC teams are 7-9 vs spread as a first round underdog. Last six years, favorites are 16-8 vs spread in 7-10 games. Florida coach White is 4-2 in NCAA?s, 2-0 in first round games.

On February 21, Abilene Christian tossed their leading scorer and another starter off their team; they?re 6-1 since then, and won Southland tourney. Wildcats lost by 34 to Texas Tech in their only game this season against a team ranked in top 150. Since ?07, Southland teams are 3-12 SU in NCAA games, 3-8 vs spread in last 11 tourney games. Kentucky is experience team #351- they are 3-2 in last five games. Wildcats play slowish pace (#265); teams are shooting only 43.6% inside arc against them. Last four years, favorites are 10-6 vs spread in 2-15 games. Wildcats are 2-5 vs spread in their last seven first round games.

Villanova won Big East tourney last week; they?re 25-9, winning five of last six games. Over last five years, Wildcats were in top 12 nationally in defensive efficiency every year, but this season, they?re #73. Villanova is experience team #178 that plays a slow (#333) pace- they get 42.8% of their points behind the arc (#9 in country). Saint Mary?s beat Gonzaga, won WCC tourney to get here; they haven?t played in nine days- they?re experience team #253. Gaels won seven of their last eight games, also play slow tempo (#347); they shoot 37.8% on arc. Saint Mary?s is 3-6 in NCAA games under Bennett, 2-4 in first round games.

FDU was down 7 at the half to Prairie View Tuesday, rallied to win 82-76; they played three guys 40:00 Tuesday- their subs played total of 14:00. Knights are 0-2 vs top 100 teams this season, losing by 35 at Rutgers, 10 at Providence- they?re experience team #151. Gonzaga lost WCC title game nine days ago; they?re 9-0 this season vs teams ranked outside top 200, with all the wins by 20+ points, seven by 30+. Bulldogs? bench plays minutes #313; if they get way up in this game, do they sit starters earlier to get ready for Baylor-Syracuse winner Saturday? Last four years, #1 seeds are 9-7 against the spread in this round.

Michigan (-11.5) beat Montana 61-47 in first round of NCAA?s LY, after Grizzlies led 10-0 early on; game was 31-28 at half, but Montana shot only 32.1% for night. Teams meet again here; Montana is #6 experience team in country, shooting 38.1% on arc, 56.3% inside arc- they lost by 26 to Creighton, by 19 to Arizona in their highest profile games. Wolverines lost Big 14 tourney finals Sunday; they?re only 4-3 in last seven games. Michigan is experience team #242. Beilein is 17-8 in NCAA games at Michigan, 6-2 in first round. Big Sky teams haven?t won an NCAA game since 2006; they?re 1-6-1 vs spread in their last eight first round games.

SoCon teams lost their last ten first round games, going 5-4-1 vs spread as an underdog, but this year, Wofford is a #7-seed and is favored here. Last time a SoCon team won a first round game was in 2008, when Steph Curry?s Davidson team got to Elite 8 as a 10-seed- they were favored in their first round game. Terriers won their last 20 games, but last fall, they lost by 25 to Kansas, 11 at Miss State, 11 to North Carolina- they beat South Carolina by 20. Wofford makes 41.6% on arc; they?re experience team #135. Seton Hall won four of last five games; Willard is 1-3 in NCAA games, and he was a 6-9-8 seed those years. Pirates are a 10-seed here, and an underdog.

In last four years, Conference USA teams posted first round upsets, as 14-15-12-13 seeds, Old Dominion is 26-8; they play a slow pace (#325) and won 10 of last 12 games. Monarchs won at Syracuse, beat VCU by 10; they?re #149 experience team. ODU coach Jones is battling prostate cancer, so this is an emotional time for the ODU family. Purdue is 23-9 this year, but lost two of its last three games; they score 38.3% of their points on the arc, with Cline making 41.8% of his 3?s. ODU?s opponents have made only 32.5% of their 3?s this year. Painter is 11-11 in NCAA tilts, but 8-3 in first round games.

Baylor lost its last four games, making 22-80 on arc in last three games; they?ll need to shoot ball better against Syracuse?s 2-3 zone here. Bears are experience team #255 whose subs play a lot (minutes #56). Drew is 10-7 in NCAA games, 4-3 in first round. Baylor?s senior G Mason was 9-19 on arc in his last three games, after a dismal 3-22 skid which also included two missed games with a foot injury. Syracuse is 4-7 in its last 11 games; their best player Battle didn?t play in their last game. Orange forces turnovers 23.2% of the time while playing pace #251. Boeheim won his last eight first round games; last loss was in ?06, after his team won Big East tourney.

Thursday?s other tournament games
Motivation is the main variable in these ?other? tournaments; I?ll give you some stats and some knowledge, but these games are really tough to decipher from the outside.

Florida Atlantic lost four of its last five games, went 8-10 in C-USA; Owls are experience team #237- three of their last four losses were by 3 or fewer points. Charleston Southern lost by 3 at Middle Tennessee in its one C-USA game; Buccaneers won six of last eight games, are #309 experience team that is 2-7 outside Big South, with four other non-D-I wins.

St Francis NY hasn?t played in 15 days, since losing in OT in NEC tourney; Terriers lost four of last five games; their last three losses were all by 5 or fewer points- they?re experience team #147 that beat Presbyterian by 4, in their only Big South game. Hampton won five of last six games, went 9-7 in Big South; Pirates are experience team #9 that is 2-8 outside the Big South.

Bakersfield lost nine of its last ten games after starting season 15-6; they went 7-9 in WAC, are experience team #130 whose eFG% is #310. Roadrunners beat Cal Poly by 13 in its only Big West game. Fullerton went 12-5 in its last 17 games after starting season 2-12 vs D-I teams; Titans are experience team #41 with two senior guards who played in NCAA?s last year.

UL-Monroe won three of its last four games, went 9-9 in Sun Belt, winning four of last five home games. Warhawks are experience team #25 that shoots 39.6% on arc, #7 in country. Kent State is 3-4 in its last seven games; they?re experience team #30 that is 10-2 outside MAC this season. Flashes haven?t played in a week; they lost three of last four road games.

 

[Cnotes53]

757St Marys Ca -758 Villanova
VILLANOVA is 13-1 ATS (11.9 Units) off a no-cover where the team won straight up as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.

759Old Dominion -760 Purdue
OLD DOMINION is 8-22 ATS (-16.2 Units) in road games after having won 5 or 6 of their last 7 games in the last 3 seasons.

761Murray St -762 Marquette
MURRAY ST is 9-1 ATS (7.9 Units) versus good 3 point shooting teams - making >=37% of their attempts over the last 2 seasons.

763Vermont -764 Florida St
FLORIDA ST is 7-1 ATS (5.9 Units) versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game in the current season.

765Belmont -766 Maryland
BELMONT is 8-0 ATS (8 Units) as a dog over the last 2 seasons.

767Yale -768 Lsu
LSU is 7-1 ATS (5.9 Units) in road games vs. good free throw shooting teams - making >=72% of their attempts in the current season.

769Seton Hall -770 Wofford
WOFFORD is 9-0 ATS (9 Units) in road games after having won 15 or more of their last 20 games in the current season.

771Abilene Christian -772 Kentucky
ABILENE CHRISTIAN is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) after having won 8 or more of their last 10 games in the last 3 seasons.

773Minnesota -774 Louisville
MINNESOTA is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) versus bad pressure defensive teams - forcing <=12 turnovers/game after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons.

775Bradley -776 Michigan St
MICHIGAN ST is 8-0 ATS (8 Units) in road games after allowing 60 points or less in the current season.

777Florida -778 Nevada
FLORIDA is 7-0 ATS (7 Units) in road games versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing <=14 turnovers/game in the current season.

779Montana -780 Michigan
MICHIGAN is 11-1 ATS (9.9 Units) after 1 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons.

781New Mexico St -782 Auburn
NEW MEXICO ST is 18-44 ATS (-30.4 Units) in road games after scoring 75 points or more 2 straight games since 1997.

783Northeastern -784 Kansas
NORTHEASTERN is 8-1 ATS (6.9 Units) versus good shooting teams - making >=45% of their shots after 15+ games in the current season.

785Farleigh Dickinson -786 Gonzaga
FARLEIGH DICKINSON is 9-1 ATS (7.9 Units) in road games versus good ball handling teams - committing <=14 turnovers/game in the current season.

787Baylor -788 Syracuse
SYRACUSE is 8-1 ATS (6.9 Units) after a loss by 10 points or more in the current season.

793Fla Atlantic -794 Charleston So
FLA ATLANTIC is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) over the last 2 seasons.

795St Francis Ny -796 Hampton
HAMPTON is 7-0 ATS (7 Units) versus poor foul drawing teams - attempting <=18 free throws/game after 15+ games in the current season.

799Ucf -800 Va Commonwealth
VA COMMONWEALTH is 10-2 ATS (7.8 Units) after having won 6 or 7 of their last 8 games in the current season.

801Gardner Webb -802 Virginia
VIRGINIA is 11-0 ATS (11 Units) in road games after a game where they failed to cover the spread over the last 2 seasons.

803Oklahoma -804 Ole Miss
OKLAHOMA is 11-1 ATS (9.9 Units) in non-conference games in the current season.

805Iowa -806 Cincinnati
IOWA is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in road games versus good defensive teams - shooting pct defense of <=42% after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons.

807Colgate -808 Tennessee
COLGATE is 6-0 ATS (6 Units) vs. winning teams in the current season.

809Iona -810 N Carolina
N CAROLINA is 8-0 ATS (8 Units) in road games after 1 or more consecutive unders in the current season.

811Washington -812 Utah St
WASHINGTON is 12-25 ATS (-15.5 Units) after 1 or more consecutive losses in the last 3 seasons.

813Ohio St -814 Iowa St
OHIO ST is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) versus poor foul drawing teams - attempting <=18 free throws/game after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons.

815Georgia St -816 Houston
GEORGIA ST is 7-0 ATS (7 Units) after 2 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 37% or less over the last 2 seasons.

819N Kentucky -820 Texas Tech
TEXAS TECH is 8-2 ATS (5.8 Units) versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing <=14 turnovers/game after 15+ games in the current season.

821Liberty -822 Mississippi St
MISSISSIPPI ST is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in road games vs. top caliber teams - outscoring their opponents by 12+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.

825Oregon -826 Wisconsin
OREGON is 7-0 ATS (7 Units) in March games in the current season.

827Uc Irvine -828 Kansas St
UC-IRVINE is 9-0 ATS (9 Units) versus poor foul drawing teams - attempting <=18 free throws/game after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons.

833Drake -834 Southern Utah
DRAKE is 7-0 ATS (7 Units) after a game with 5 or less offensive rebounds in the current season.

857Fla International -858 Texas St
TEXAS ST is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) in home games versus good ball handling teams - committing <=14 turnovers/game after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons.

889Cs Bakersfield -890 Cs Fullerton
CS-BAKERSFIELD is 13-2 ATS (10.8 Units) versus good shooting teams - making >=45% of their shots after 15+ games since 1997.

891Kent St -892 La Monroe
LA-MONROE is 8-1 ATS (6.9 Units) in home games vs. winning teams over the last 2 seasons.

 

[Cnotes53]

NCAAB

Thursday, March 21

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Minnesota @ Louisville
Minnesota
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Minnesota's last 13 games
Minnesota is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Louisville
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Louisville's last 9 games
Louisville is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games


Yale @ LSU
Yale
Yale is 18-4 SU in its last 22 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Yale's last 7 games
LSU
LSU is 19-3 SU in its last 22 games
LSU is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games


New Mexico State @ Auburn
New Mexico State
New Mexico State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
New Mexico State is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Auburn
Auburn is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Auburn is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games


Vermont @ Florida State
Vermont
No trends to report
Florida State
Florida State is 14-2 SU in its last 16 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Florida State's last 8 games


Bradley @ Michigan State
Bradley
Bradley is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Bradley's last 6 games
Michigan State
Michigan State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Michigan State is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games


Belmont @ Maryland
Belmont
Belmont is 15-1 SU in its last 16 games
Belmont is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Maryland
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Maryland's last 9 games
Maryland is 15-8 SU in its last 23 games


Northeastern @ Kansas
Northeastern
Northeastern is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Northeastern is 6-0-1 ATS in its last 7 games
Kansas
Kansas is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Kansas's last 13 games


Murray State @ Marquette
Murray State
Murray State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Murray State is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Marquette
Marquette is 18-7 SU in its last 25 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Marquette's last 7 games


Florida @ Nevada
Florida
Florida is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Florida's last 14 games
Nevada
Nevada is 21-4 SU in its last 25 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Nevada's last 6 games


Florida Atlantic @ Charleston Southern
Florida Atlantic
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Florida Atlantic's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Florida Atlantic's last 7 games
Charleston Southern
No trends to report


St. Francis-Brooklyn @ Hampton
St. Francis-Brooklyn
No trends to report
Hampton
No trends to report


Abilene Christian @ Kentucky
Abilene Christian
No trends to report
Kentucky
Kentucky is 17-3 SU in its last 20 games
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Kentucky's last 13 games


Saint Mary's-California @ Villanova
Saint Mary's-California
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Saint Mary's-California's last 9 games
Saint Mary's-California is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
Villanova
Villanova is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Villanova's last 5 games


Fairleigh Dickinson @ Gonzaga
Fairleigh Dickinson
No trends to report
Gonzaga
Gonzaga is 21-1 SU in its last 22 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Gonzaga's last 6 games


Kent State @ Louisiana-Monroe
Kent State
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Kent State's last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Kent State's last 11 games
Louisiana-Monroe
Louisiana-Monroe is 14-2 SU in its last 16 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Louisiana-Monroe's last 6 games at home


Montana @ Michigan
Montana
Montana is 16-2 SU in its last 18 games
The total has gone OVER in 16 of Montana's last 24 games
Michigan
Michigan is 19-6 SU in its last 25 games
Michigan is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games


Seton Hall @ Wofford
Seton Hall
Seton Hall is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Seton Hall is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Wofford
Wofford is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Wofford is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games


Old Dominion @ Purdue
Old Dominion
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Old Dominion's last 5 games
Old Dominion is 10-2 SU in its last 12 games
Purdue
Purdue is 14-3 SU in its last 17 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Purdue's last 6 games


Baylor @ Syracuse
Baylor
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Baylor's last 8 games
Baylor is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
Syracuse
Syracuse is 15-7 ATS in its last 22 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Syracuse's last 6 games


Cal State-Bakersfield @ Cal State-Fullerton
Cal State-Bakersfield
Cal State-Bakersfield is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Cal State-Fullerton
Cal State-Bakersfield is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Cal State-Fullert
Cal State-Fullerton
Cal State-Fullerton is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games at home
Cal State-Fullerton is 12-5 SU in its last 17 games

 

[Cnotes53]

Today's biggest bets and line moves: Sharps hit Northeastern odds vs. Kansas
Patrick Everson

Kansas has the historical basketball bloodlines, but isn't drawing the money for its NCAA Tournament opener. The Jayhawks hit the board as 8.5-point favorites vs. Northeastern and are down to -6.5.

Sports betting?s annual rite of spring is once again upon us, as March Madness blows in with a 16-game storm Thursday to kick off the festivities. We check in on the action and line movement for several of those NCAA Tournament matchups, with insights from Matt Lindeman, manager of trading for Caesars Entertainment sportsbooks in Las Vegas, and Derek Wilkinson, manager at The SuperBook at Westgate in Vegas.

No. 13 Northeastern Huskies vs. No. 4 Kansas Jayhawks ? Open: -8.5; Move: -8; Move: -8.5; Move: -8; Move: -7.5; Move: -7; Move: -6.5

Kansas is used to being a better seed, normally a 1 or a 2, but it failed to win the Big 12 regular-season or tournament titles this year, slipping a couple notches in the process. The Jayhawks (25-9 SU, 16-18 ATS) at least reached the conference final, but had little answer for Iowa State in a 78-66 loss as 1.5-point underdogs Saturday.

Northeastern enters this 4 p.m. ET Midwest Region battle having won seven in a row and 12 of its last 13 (9-3-1 ATS). The Huskies (23-10 SU, 18-12-3 ATS) beat Hofstra 82-74 as 2.5-point favorites in the Colonial Athletic Association final on March 12 to land an automatic NCAA berth.

?This is one where the book needs the favorite,? Wilkinson said. ?We?ve taken some sharp bets on Northeastern plus the points, as well as on the moneyline. It?s going to be a significant five-figure decision by game time.?
No. 12 New Mexico State Aggies vs. No. 5 Auburn Tigers ? Open: -7.5; Move: -7; Move: -6.5; Move: -6; Move: -5.5, Move: -5; Move: -5.5

Auburn enters the Big Dance on a hot streak, winning eight in a row, including a four-wins-in-four-days tear through the Southeastern Conference tourney. The Tigers (26-9 SU, 18-15-1 ATS) capped that run with an 84-64 takedown of Tennessee as 4.5-point pups in Sunday?s SEC final.

New Mexico State is on an impressive 19-0 SU roll (9-9 ATS) that included a fairly easy run to the Western Athletic Conference tourney crown. The Aggies (30-4 SU, 17-15 ATS) drubbed Grand Canyon University 89-57 laying 4 points in Saturday?s final.

?Sharps jumped on NMSU at +7.5 and +7 when the numbers came out Sunday night, and there was a secondary move on the Aggies on Tuesday,? Lindeman said of a 1:30 p.m. ET start in the Midwest Region. ?We saw some buyback at Auburn -5, but it definitely looks like the wiseguys are in agreement on the ?dog. Public money could balance it out closer to tip, as Auburn's SEC tournament title win is fresh on everyone's mind.?


No. 14 Yale Bulldogs vs. No. 3 Louisiana State Tigers ? Open: -9; Move: -8.5; Move: -8; Move: -7.5; Move: -8; Move: -7.5; Move: -8; Move: -7.5; Move: -7.5

Yale is a trendy underdog pick among many bettors in this 12:40 p.m. ET matchup, one of the tournament?s first games of the day. The Bulldogs (22-7 SU, 16-12 ATS) beat Harvard 97-85 as 4-point favorites in Sunday?s Ivy League final to punch their NCAA ticket.

Louisiana State was the Southeastern Conference regular-season champion, but didn?t live up to that billing in the conference tourney. The Tigers (26-6 SU, 19-12-1 ATS) lost to Florida 76-73 as 3.5-point faves in Friday?s quarterfinals.

Caesars books, including the flagship Caesars Palace and The Linq on the Vegas Strip, were among the first to post opening NCAA Tournament lines Sunday afternoon. This contest initially opened LSU -9, but adjusted to -7.5 within 30 minutes. Then came at least a little Tigers money.

?We took a sharp bet on LSU -7.5, but it looks like the market didn't agree, as the number has crept down to 7,? Lindeman said of this East Region matchup. ?I'd imagine action will remain pretty split on this one, as some will be enticed by the short number for a 3 seed, and others will want to back the Ivy League underdog.?


No. 10 Florida Gators vs. No. 7 Nevada Wolf Pack ? Open: -2.5; Move: -1.5; Move: -2; Move: -1.5; Move: -2; Move: -2.5; Move: -2; Move: -1.5; Move: -2; Move: -2.5; Move: -2; Move: -2.5

Nevada lost just four games all season, but one of those was in the Mountain West Conference semifinals, as the No. 1 seed. The Wolf Pack (29-4 SU, 17-14-1 ATS) fell to San Diego State 65-56 laying 10.5 points Friday.

Florida gained a berth to the NCAA Tourney after reaching the SEC semifinals last week. The Gators (19-15 SU, 16-18 ATS) rolled over Arkansas and upset top seed LSU, before losing to eventual SEC champ Auburn 65-62 as 3.5-point ?dogs Saturday.

?There was a small move down on this game Tuesday (to 1.5), but the number has worked its way back up to the opening line of 2.5,? Lindeman said of a 6:50 p.m. ET tip in the West Region. ?We haven't taken anything significant on either side, but this is one game where I could see a late public pile-on, as bettors look to lay a short number with a talented Nevada team.?
No. 11 Belmont Bruins vs. No. 6 Maryland Terrapins ? Open: -3.5; Move: -4; Move: -3.5; Move: -3; Move: -2.5

Belmont already has a win under its belt this week, making it through one of the First Four play-in games. The Bruins lost to Murray State in the Ohio Valley Conference final, but their body of work was enough to garner an NCAA at-large bid. Belmont then beat Temple 81-70 Tuesday as 2.5-point chalk to gain a spot in this 3:10 p.m. ET matchup.

Maryland had an up-and-down last two months, going 6-7 SU and ATS, but still landed the sixth seed in the East Region. The Terrapins (22-10 SU, 16-15-1 ATS) stumbled to Nebraska in their Big Ten tourney opener, losing 69-61 as 6.5-point favorites last Thursday.

?This is likely going to be one of our bigger decisions of the day, as Belmont will be a very trendy ?dog pick,? Lindeman said. ?We opened Maryland -3.5 and have already seen heavy action on the Bruins, most of which is coming on the moneyline. I'm curious to see what the buy price is on the favorite; I wouldn't be surprised if the game closes 2.?


No. 12 Murray State Racers vs. No. 5 Marquette Golden Eagles ? Open: -5.5; Move: -5; Move: -4.5; Move: -4; Move: -4.5; Move: -4; Move: -4.5; Move: -4; Move: -3.5

Murray State has the eyeball-drawing, jaw-dropping star guard Ja Morant, who has helped his squad win 11 in a row to land in the Big Dance. The Racers (27-4 SU, 19-10 ATS) beat Belmont 77-65 catching 2 points in the Ohio Valley Conference tournament title game March 9.

Marquette finished second in the Big East regular-season standings, but couldn?t convert that into a spot in the conference tournament final. The Golden Eagles (24-9 SU, 19-14 ATS) fell a bucket short to Seton Hall in Friday?s semis, losing 81-79 as 4.5-point favorites.

?It's been all one-sided action here, as sharps and public bettors are lining up on the ?dog,? Lindeman of this 4:30 p.m. ET West Region contest. ?Murray State was always going to be a trendy pick with Morant leading the way, but now Marquette?s Markus Howard has a wrist injury that could limit him. Barring a few big bets on the Warriors late, we'll need Marquette.?


No. 13 Vermont Catamounts vs. No. 4 Florida State Seminoles ? Open: -11; Move: -10.5; Move: -11; Move: -10.5; Move: -11; Move: -10.5; Move: -10; Move: -9.5; Move: -10; Move: -9

Florida State surged late in the regular season, going 12-1 SU in its last 13 games (8-5 ATS), then claimed a pair of Atlantic Coast Conference tourney wins, including a semifinal upset of No. 1 seed Virginia. The Seminoles (27-7 SU, 16-17-1 ATS) lost to Duke in Saturday?s ACC final, 73-63 getting 7 points.

Vermont has won six in a row and 12 of its last 13 (8-5 ATS) en route to the automatic bid from the America East Conference. In Saturday?s conference final, the Catamounts (27-6 SU, 20-10-2 ATS) dispatched Maryland-Baltimore County ? a team that sprung the historic 16 vs. 1 upset of Virginia in last year?s NCAA Tournament ? 66-49 giving 10.5 points.

?We?ve gotten a lot of action on Vermont from sharps,? Wilkinson said of this 2 p.m. ET West Region matchup. ?Mostly pointspread bets, but we also have a decent liability on Vermont moneyline, which dropped from +525 to +400.?

 

[Cnotes53]

Thursday's odds and best bets for East Region Round 1
Jason Logan

March Madness make landfall in the East Region, with four games on the board for the Round of 64 Thursday. Jason Logan is taming the ?beasts of the East?, breaking down the NCAA Tournament betting odds on that side of the bracket and giving you his best bets for Thursday.

(10) MINNESOTA GOLDEN GOPHERS VS (7) LOUISVILLE CARDINALS

Odds: UL -5, 135
Start Time: 12:15 p.m. ET, Wells Fargo Arena, Des Moines, Iowa

The Golden Gophers haven?t been great on offense this year, and they?ve been even worse away from home. Minnesota is shooting just under 41 percent from the field outside of Williams Arena, averaging only 63.6 points in those games ? a huge drop from its 77.9 points-per production at home.

Louisville will likely throw some zone at this bigger Gophers team and force them to do damage from the perimeter. The Cardinals are among the best defenses in the country and venue hasn?t been an issue, allowing just 40 percent shooting in foreign gyms.

Minnesota put up just 49 points in a loss to Michigan in the Big Ten tournament and has failed to crack the 65-point plateau in five of its last eight contests. Going Golden Gophers Under 65 total team points in this tournament opener.


(14) YALE BULLDOGS VS (3) LSU TIGERS

Odds: LSU -7.5, 156.5
Start Time: 12:40 p.m. ET, VyStar Veterans Memorial Arena, Jacksonville, Florida

Everyone and their dog is in love with Yale, which has slimmed this spread from Louisiana State -9 to -7.5 heading into Thursday openers. And there?s a lot to love about the Bulldogs (and plenty not to about LSU).

Yale enters the NCAA off an Ivy League title and brings one of the best offenses in the country to the table, putting up more than 81 points per game and shooting a blistering 49.8 percent from the field. They have four guys putting up double figures a game and a fifth scoring more than nine points a contest.

The Tigers are reeling a bit from their sad showing in the SEC tournament and the controversy swirling around suspended head coach Will Wade. Interim coach Tony Benford was in over his head in the conference tournament, and it ended up costing LSU the game. As I said, not a lot to love.

Now, given the line move and the fact that 58 percent of bets are riding on Yale, I?m hesitant to side with the public opinion. Louisiana State is the more talented team and should own every rebound, forcing the Bulldogs to be perfect from the field. So, what I will do is go Yale to cover the +4 in the first half and poke the public in my own special way.


(15) BRADLEY BRAVES VS (2) MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS

Odds: MSU -18.5, 133.5
Start Time: 2:45 p.m. ET, Wells Fargo Arena, Des Moines, Iowa

Bradley was a +800 long shot to win the Missouri Valley Conference, sitting behind four other contenders priced at +575 or lower. Yeah, the Braves shouldn?t really be here, but they stole their conference crown and are rewarded with a matchup against No. 2 Michigan State.

The Spartans barnstormed the Big Ten tournament and knocked off rival Michigan to claim their conference title, thanks in part to strong second-half efforts. Over their last four outings, the Green and White have outscored foes by an average of 40.25 to 31.25 in the final 20 minutes.

Bradley has long since cooled from its MVC run, having been sitting around since March 10, and will be making its first tournament trip since 2006. The Braves may make things interesting in the early goings, but MSU will eventually overwhelm and cover the spread once again ? adding to a 24-10 record against the spread. Spartans -18.5.


(11) BELMONT BRUINS VS (6) MARYLAND TERRAPINS

Odds: MD -3, 147
Start Time: 3:10 p.m. ET, VyStar Veterans Memorial Arena, Jacksonville, Florida

Belmont breaks into the Round of 64 off a victory against a talented Temple team in the First Four Tuesday. The Bruins are the darlings of many a bracketologist, earning an at-large bid from the selection committee after losing in the Ohio Valley title game. That should tell you something about this mid-major program.

Belmont can score. The Bruins ranked second in the country in points per game and pick up almost 36 percent of their tallies from beyond the arc ? a telltale sign of a Cinderella school. They?re also big, with five rotation players standing 6-foot-7 or taller, so don?t expect the Terps to just push them around.

The Bruins were able to get an 0-7 NCAA monkey off their backs versus Temple and won?t be wowed by a power program. Belmont went toe-to-toe at Purdue in non-conference play and will get a Big Ten head for their trophy wall Thursday. Belmont +140 moneyline.

 

[Cnotes53]

Thursday's odds and best bets for West Region Round 1
Brandon DuBreuil

It's March Madness time! It's a busy Thursday in the West of the 2019 NCAA Tournament with six of the regions eight games on the go, highlighted by a star-powered tilt between Marquette and Murray State. We take a look at the odds, totals, and betting trends while giving a best bet for each of today's games.

(13) Vermont Catamounts vs (4) Florida State Seminoles

Odds: Florida State -9, O/U 133.5
Start time: 2 p.m. ET, XL Center, Hartford

There has been heavy line movement here as the Seminoles opened at -14.5 but has been bet all the way down to -9. Bettors obviously feel like this is a tough matchup for FSU and it?s easy to see why.

The Catamounts will be more rested as their three conference tournament games happened between March 9th-16th and were all at home. FSU played its three ACC Tournament games in three days between March 14th-16th at a neutral site. Vermont also gets a bit of a home-court advantage as this game is less than 200 miles from campus. Add to that the fact that FSU?s strength is its inside play and Vermont?s strength is its guard play and we see why bettors are backing the Catamounts.

Florida State, however, is one of the deepest teams in the country with 11 players averaging over 10 minutes per game. The three games in three days last week shouldn?t be an issue and the Seminoles? rotation will help them take over the game in the second half.

Vermont should come out flying with the crowd behind it, however, and could take advantage of a Seminoles team who might be lacking motivation early after playing its last two games against two of the best teams in the country. Take Vermont at +5 for the first half.


(12) Murray State Racers vs (5) Marquette Golden Eagles

Odds: Marquette -4, O/U 149.5
Start time: 4:30 p.m. ET, XL Center, Hartford

This is the must-watch game of the day in the West Region as star guards Markus Howard (25 points per game) and Ja Morant (24.6 points per game) go head to head.

Howard can light it up with the best players in the country but which version will show up? The one that shot 6.7 percent from the field in the Big East semifinal or the one who shot 53.3 percent from the field in the quarterfinal?

Morant, meanwhile, is absolutely on fire and put up 32.5 points per game during the Ohio Valley tournament. It?s not often that Howard isn?t the best player on the court, but in this matchup, that title goes to Morant. He has led the Racers to 11 straight wins and a 7-3 ATS record in their last 10.

The Racers have the best player on the court but also have an edge that should limit the Golden Eagles. Marquette relies on the three ball, averaging 9.4 threes on 39.3 percent shooting while getting 36.4 percent of its total points from the long ball. Murray State, meanwhile, is one of the top teams in the country at defending the three, allowing opponents a 28.5 percent 3-point percentage, the fourth-best defensive mark in the nation.

This game has the classic 12-vs-5 upset written all over it. You?ll be riding with the public by betting this one, but grab Murray State at +4 (and perhaps sprinkle a little coin on the money line).


(10) Florida Gators vs (7) Nevada Wolf Pack

Odds: Nevada -1.5, O/U 133.5
Start time: 6:50 p.m. ET, Wells Fargo Arena, Des Moines

Here we have a team that has come on strong of late and has been in must-win mode for a while against what could be one of the most overrated teams in the country.

Florida was on the outside looking in as a bubble team until it went on a nice run through the SEC Tournament that included a win over LSU in the semis and a three-point loss to Auburn in the finals. The Gators have won four straight ATS and are 7-3 ATS in their last 10. Florida?s overall record doesn?t look pretty at 19-15 but it had the 18th toughest schedule in the nation, according to KenPom.

Nevada, meanwhile, cruised through the season with a 29-4 record but played just two Quadrant 1 games all season ? both against Utah State where they went just 1-1 ? and its strength of schedule ranks 111th by KenPom.

The Wolf Pack also have a serious injury concern with Jordan Caroline, their second-leading scorer (17.3 per game) and top rebounder (9.6 per game). He missed the Mountain West semifinal ? which Nevada lost 65-56 to San Diego State ? with an Achilles injury and, even though coach Eric Musselman says he was held out for ?precautionary reasons?, some reports out of Nevada say the injury is more serious than the team is letting on. Take the Gators with the plus points and toss a little on the moneyline.


(16) Fairleigh Dickinson Knights vs (1) Gonzaga Bulldogs

Odds: Gonzaga -26.5, O/U 152.5
Start time: 7:27 p.m. ET, Vivint Smart Home Arena, Salt Lake City

Gonzaga opens against Fairleigh Dickinson after the Knights beat Prairie View A&M 82-76 in a First Four game in Dayton, Ohio, on Tuesday evening. The Zags, of course, are coming off a loss after scoring a season-low 47 points in the WCC title game against Saint Mary's.

The Knights have been good to bettors of late, having gone 8-1 ATS during their current nine-game win streak. That, along with the massive spread, might appeal to some but keep in mind that the Bulldogs beat teams by an average of 23.8 points this season and are 6-2 ATS with a spread of -25 or higher.

Everyone knows the Zags can score ? they're the highest scoring team in the nation at 88.8 points per game. This should bode well against an FDU squad that ranks 295th in defensive efficiency, allowing 71.3 points per game (according to KenPom). The Knights can also score, averaging 75 points per game. The Over for the full game is tempting, but the second half could deliver some strange results as FDU tires at altitude and the Zags empty the bench. Both teams should be full speed ahead in the first, however, so take the Over 72.5 for the first-half total.


(15) Montana Grizzlies vs (2) Michigan Wolverines

Odds: Michigan -15, O/U 130
Start time: 9:20 p.m. ET, Wells Fargo Arena, Des Moines

Here we have a rematch of last year?s first-round game where Michigan beat Montana 61-47 as the third seed in the West to kickstart its run to the Final Four. An interesting note here is that the Wolverines were coming off a surprise Big Ten title and then came out flat as the Grizzlies jumped out to a 10-0 lead.

This season, Michigan is coming off a disappointing Big Ten title game where it blew an eight-point halftime lead in the loss to Michigan State. First-round games can sometimes be let-down situations for some of the top teams but this is not one of those with the Wolverines coming off a loss. And you can guarantee that coach Jim Beilein will be constantly reminding his team about Montana?s start last season.

One more thing to note: Michigan fans travel well and this game takes place at a reasonable 500 miles from campus, while Montana is over 1,000 miles from home. Expect the Wolverines to come out strong here and take Michigan -9 for the first half.

Bonus bet: If Michigan jumps out a large lead, look to grab Montana with the biggest live spread possible as the Wolverines are not a deep team and will look to rest its players late.


(9) Baylor Bears vs (8) Syracuse Orange

Odds: Syracuse -2, O/U 131.5
Start time: 9:57 p.m. ET, Vivint Smart Home Arena, Salt Lake City

Syracuse rested its best player Tyus Battle (17.2 points per game) during the ACC Tournament because of a lower-back injury but he is back at practice and ready to go for Thursday. Then there?s the Syracuse 2-3 zone defense. ACC teams are used to it but out-of-conference teams generally aren?t. Stats back this up as the Orange are 4-0 ATS in their last four NCAA Tournament games.

Baylor heads into the tourney as losers of four straight and is 0-5-1 ATS in its last six. The Bears have also won just one road game since Jan. 28th. Injuries have plagued the Bears as they lost Tristan Clark (14.6 points per game) for the season in January and star guard Makai Mason is banged up with a toe injury.

If Mason can hit a few threes, which he is certainly capable of as a 36.5 percent 3-ball shooting on the season, Baylor will have a chance, but Syracuse is the better bet here. Take the Orange -2.

Update: Syracuse's starting guard Frank Howard (8.9 points, 2.9 assists) has been suspended. Spread down to Syracuse -1.5.