Cnotes College Hoops Picks,Trends News 2018-2918 !

[Cnotes53]

Friday's odds and best bets for South Region Round 1
Rohit Ponnaiya

March Madness is in full swing and we've got six games in the South Region today highlighted by a defensive battle between Wisconsin and Oregon, while the two best ATS teams in the field of 64 look to continue their success. We break down our predictions and best bets for the second day of the NCAA Tournament.

(10) Iowa Hawkeyes vs (7) Cincinatti Bearcats

Odds:CIN -4, 137.5

Start Time: 12:15 p.m. ET, Columbus, OH

Both of these teams have been poor covers of late with the Hawkeyes 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games, while the Bearcats are 2-9 ATS over their previous 11. The difference is that the Hawkeyes are 4-6 straight up over that span while the Bearcats are 8-3.

As an added bonus Cincinnati has to travel a mere 106 miles from their campus to Nationwide Arena in Columbus, so this matchup will practically feel like a home game and Iowa is just 3-7 ATS on the road this season.

Iowa has size and can score from a variety of spots on the floor but Cincy has the more balanced team, with a tough, physical defense and a capable offense led by Jarron Cumberland and his 18.8 points per game. Back the Bearcats to win and cover.

(9) Oklahoma Sooners vs (8) Mississippi Rebels

Odds: MISS -1, 142.5

Start Time: 12:45 p.m. ET, Columbia, SC

This game between 19-3 Oklahoma and 20-12 Ole Miss is almost a pick'em with just the Rebels favored by just a single point. Somewhat surprisingly the Rebels have been one of the best ATS teams in the country with a record of 23-9.

When you look deeper at these teams it's easy to see why oddsmakers are predicting the game to be so close. Both have played highly competitive schedules this year and have generally lost to teams ranked highly, while mostly winning the games they are expected to. Oklahoma has the better defense, but Ole Miss has the stronger offense and both teams have good depth and athleticism.

Oklahoma has the 23rd ranked defense in the country according to the KenPom efficiency rating and holds opponents to 40.2 percent shooting from the field. The Rebels averaged 75.4 ppg on the season but recently have been much less impressive on offense, with an average of 69 ppg over their last nine games.

The Sooners have been an excellent Under bet all season going 12-20 to the O/U, while the Rebels have hit the Under in eight of their last 11 games. We're going to avoid the side bet (which almost looks like a coin flip) and take the Total bet Under instead.

(13) UC Irvine Anteaters vs (4) Kansas State Wildcats

Odds: KSU -4.5, 118.5

Start Time: 2:00 p.m. ET, San Jose, CA

This game has upset written all over it. UC Irvine is one of the best defensive teams around, holding opponents to the lowest 2-point shooting percentage in the country at 40.7 percent. They also dominate the boards, grabbing 54.7 percent of all available rebounds which is the tenth-best rate in the nation.

KSU has an excellent defense of it's own, holding opponents to just 59.2 ppg but they also score just 65.8 ppg and run just 66.2 possessions per game both marks outside the top-300. The Wildcats' second-leading (and most efficient) scorer Dean Wade is also doubtful for the game due to a foot injury. It looks like both teams will struggle to score in this one, which could make it really tough for KSU to cover the spread.

Add to that the fact that the Wildcats are travelling 1800 miles for this game while the Anteaters are travelling less than 400 and we're leaning towards taking UC Irvine at +4.5.

(15) Colgate Raiders vs (2) Tennessee Volunteers

Odds: TENN -17.5, 147.5

Start Time: 2:45 p.m. ET, Columbus, OH

Colgate has been an excellent Over play this season (20-12 O/U) and can light up the scoreboard with 75.5 ppg. They also give up 70.1 ppg despite playing at a slow pace, which is bad news against a prolific Volunteers offense that ranks ninth in the country with 81.7 ppg.

Colgate hasn't played anybody even close to as talented as Tennessee on offense and the Vols have also suffered through defensive lapses of their own, including games where they allowed 92 points to Memphis and 87 points to Arkansas.

With the Raiders 5-1 to the Over in their previous six games and the Vols cashing the Over each of their last four games, back the Over again.

(16) Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs vs (1) Virginia Cavaliers

Odds: UVA -22, 130

Time: 3:10 p.m. ET, Columbia, SC

Virginia might arguably have the best team in the country and that shows with this line which opened at a massive -24 before going slightly down. UVA is without a doubt much better in every aspect of the game than the Runnin' Bulldogs (God I love that nickname), but are they 22 points better?

Virginia has been terrific at covering all season, their 23-9 ATS record is tied with Ole Miss for the best out of any team in the Field of 64. More importantly for bettors, the Cavaliers have covered in nine of 11 games this season where they were favored by at least 18 points.

If you think that they might relax towards the end of the game and let Gardner-Webb cover late, the first half spread at -13.5 might be good choice. Virginia did average a first half scoring margin of +9.5 over the season and should be eager to take out their frustration after a rare loss in their last game against Florida State.

(12) Oregon Ducks vs (5) Wisconsin Badgers

Odds: WIS -2, 116.5

Time: 4:30 p.m ET, San Jose, CA

How low can you go? That's what bettors might be asking with this matchup. This game has all the makings of a defensive battle, featuring two teams with excellent defenses and below average offenses that play at a slow tempo. The total is set at 116.5, the lowest total off all games in the South Region.

While Oregon has a very impressive defense that allows just 62.9 ppg on 40.2 percent shooting, Wisconsin is even better holding opponents to 61.4 ppg on 39.3 percent shooting (and against better competition in the Big Ten).

Both teams are also more than capable of hitting the three-ball. The big difference maker is inside, where Wisconsin has big man Ethan Happ. Happ is a load down low who can rebound and score close to the basket. Perhaps more importantly his presence inside opens things up for Wisconsin's shooters, and Happ is an excellent passer that likes to kick it out to them when he sees them open.

One other thing that gives Wisconsin the edge in this one? They seldom make mistakes. The Badgers committ only 9.5 turnovers per game, the sixth-lowest figure in the nation and their 15 personal fouls per game ranks 15th. Back Wisconsin to win and cover the two points.

 

[Cnotes53]

Friday's odds and best bets for West Region Round 1
Brandon DuBreuil

The madness continues on Friday and even though the West Region slows down with just two games, the action should be entertaining and there could be money to be made. We take a look at the odds, totals, and betting trends while giving a best bet for each of today's games.

(14) Northern Kentucky Norse vs (3) Texas Tech Red Raiders

Odds: Texas Tech -13.5, O/U 137
Start time: 1:30 p.m. ET, Bank of Oklahoma Center, Tulsa

Texas Tech is one of the top defensive teams in the country, ranked first in KenPom?s Adjusted Defensive Efficiency while allowing just 59.3 points per game (fourth-fewest in the nation). The Red Raiders come in off an ugly loss, however, after West Virginia beat them outright in the Big 12 Tournament quarterfinals in a game where Texas Tech was a 13-point fave.

This makes for an interesting matchup as the Norse?s strength lies on offense, where they score 79.1 points per game led by Drew McDonald, a senior forward who averages 19.1 points on 48.2 percent shooting and 9.5 rebounds.

Though they are coming off a loss, the Red Raiders are 8-2 ATS in their last 10. However, those two losses both came in games where they were favored by 13 points or more. In fact, Texas Tech is just 1-3 ATS this season when favored by 12 or more. This isn?t all that surprising as it?s difficult to cover large spreads when most of their games feature low totals.

Instead of messing around with that double-digit spread full-game spread, I?m going to look to the first half. Texas Tech got embarrassed in its last game and should be very motivated to come out strong. It just so happens that the Red Raiders have been a very strong first-half team of late, going 8-1 ATS in their last nine. The Norse, meanwhile, have lost four straight ATS in the first half and eight of their last 10. Take Texas Tech -7.5 in the first half.

(11) Arizona State Sun Devils vs (6) Buffalo Bulls

Odds: Buffalo -4.5, O/U 156
Start time: 4 p.m. ET, Bank of Oklahoma Center, Tulsa

If you haven?t had the chance to see Buffalo play yet this season, you?re in for a treat as the Bulls light it up to the tune of 84.9 points per game, fourth-most per game in the nation, while playing at the ninth-fastest adjusted tempo, according to KenPom.

The Bulls are also a senior-laden team that has experience winning at the NCAA Tournament after they crushed fourth-seeded Arizona as an 11-seed last season in the first round 89-68 (before falling to Kentucky 95-75 in the second round).

Arizona State advanced after cruising to a 74-65 win over St. John?s in the First Four on Wednesday. The Sun Devils jumped out to a 13-point lead at the half and then held on, despite turning the ball over a whopping 21 times, including six from point guard Remy Martin.

Taking care of the ball could be an issue for Arizona State, a team that turned the ball over 13.6 times per game this season. Buffalo is known for its offense but the Bulls are solid defensively as well with an Adjusted Defensive Efficiency Rank of 27th in the nation, according to KenPom. The Bulls are also a top-60 team in the nation with 7.2 steals per game.

Plus, did ASU play that well on Wednesday or did St. John?s play really poorly? The Red Storm shot just 31.9 percent from the field and missed 10 free throws in a game that coach Chris Mullen called ?one of our worst games of the season overall.?

This Buffalo team has a lot going for it, including a 12-game winning streak and a 5-1 ATS record in games where it is favored by 4.5-points or less. Back the Bulls at -4.5.

 

[Cnotes53]

Friday's odds and best bets for East Region Round 1
Jason Logan

After four matinee March Madness games Thursday, the East Region of the NCAA Tournament is on the night shift with all four outings in the evening. Jason Logan is taming the ?beast of the East? this March, breaking down the odds and action, and giving his best March Madness bets for Friday.

NO. 16 NORTH DAKOTA STATE BISON VS NO. 1 DUKE BLUE DEVILS

Odds: Duke -27, 148.5
Start Time: 7:10 p.m. ET, Colonial Life Arena, Columbia, South Carolina

It?s the moment you?ve all been waiting for: Duke?s Big Dance debut.

The Blue Devils are lugging a load of points into this Round of 64 matchup with North Dakota State, and I expect this spread to grow once the public pounds Zion, R.J., and the rest of Coach K?s crew. Sharps may come sniffing around for value on the dog in a hours before tipoff.

Duke has gone full-on Cobra Kai (NO MERCY!) in the opening round since that infamous loss to Mercer back in 2014. The Blue Devils are a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last four tournament openers, covering lofty chalk as -20.5, -19.5, and -22.5 favorites in that span (covered -6 vs. Yale in 2016).

The Blue Devils have been favorites of 20 or more points 10 times this season, going 6-4 ATS versus those sky-high spreads. However, they?ve been far from dominant in the first half of those games. Duke held an average first-half lead of 12.8 points in those 10 contests then erupted in the final 20 minutes, posting an average second-half margin of 18.6 points.

The Blue Devils will slowly dip their toe into the NCAA Tournament pool, which is why I?m going NDSU +15.5 in the first half Friday.


NO.12 LIBERTY FLAMES VS NO. 5 MISSISSIPPI STATE BULLDOGS

Odds: MSU -6.5, 133.5
Start Time: 7:27 p.m. ET, SAP Center, San Jose, California

Liberty has drawn many comparisons to last year?s tournament Cinderella, Loyola-Chicago, and one of them is the Flames? pace of play. They rank among the bottom of the country in terms of tempo, averaging just 66.5 possessions per game (12th fewest).

Mississippi State, on the other hand, sits in the middle of the road in terms of tempo, averaging a respectable 77.3 points per game ? 65th in the country. The Bulldogs have run into a few opponents that also employ a methodical pace, including three SEC rivals ? Florida, Kentucky (twice) and Missouri ? which sit with a tempo rating of 65.9 or lower. The Bulldogs went 1-3 Over/Under in those conference games.

Mississippi State also came across some slower-paced teams during non-conference play, taking on the likes of St. Mary?s, Dayton, Cincinnati, and Wright State ? all of which rank in the bottom 34 teams in terms of pace. The Bulldogs played Under the total in each of those four meeting.

For those keeping score, MSU is 1-7 Over/Under versus those foes playing at a snail?s pace, averaging a mere 65.5 points in those eight games. I see them getting sucked into a grinder versus Liberty and staying Under their team total of 70 points Friday.


NO. 9 CENTRAL FLORIDA KNIGHTS VS NO. 8 VCU RAMS

Odds: UCF -1, 126.5
Start Time: 9:40 p.m. ET, Colonial Life Arena, Columbia, South Carolina

Jeez, I wish these two teams didn?t have to play each other in the first round, as I think they could?ve upset the bracket cart. But, here we are.

Virginia Commonwealth got a raw deal in the A-10 tournament, losing top scorer Marcus Evans early into their loss against Rhode Island. That blew up a 12-game winning streak by the Rams, in which they went 10-2 against the spread. Evans is expected back for this opening NCAA game, and the early action moved VCU from a 1-point fave to a 1-point dog.

Central Florida poses the biggest challenge to VCU this season? no really. This is the biggest team the Rams have played. Virginia Commonwealth has played only three teams taller then its average height this season ? Old Dominion, Temple, and Davidson ? going 1-2 SU and ATS in those contests. They also played Texas, which was of equal in stature, and won and covered in that contest.

The notable takeaway from those games was VCU?s offensive output versus tall opponents: averaging just 55 points per game in those meetings. That?s well below their season output of 71.4 points per game. Central Florida gives up just over 64 points on average on 39.5 percent shooting, with 7-foot-6 center Tacko Fall as the keystone.

I?m going with VCU Under 62.5 team total in this one.


NO. 13 ST. LOUIS BILLIKENS VS NO. 6 VIRGINIA TECH HOKIES

Odds: VT -10, 126
Start Time: 9:57 p.m. ET, SAP Center, San Jose, California

Note the venue and start time for this final Friday game in the East Region. The Hokies will be playing in their latest start of the season (no start time later than 8 p.m. ET) after traveling almost 2,700 miles from East to West for this tournament opener Friday. And let?s not forget SLU either, making the plus-2,000-mile pilgrimage to play in San Jose.

The Billikens snuck into the field of 64 with an upset win as a No. 6 seed in the A-10 tournament. Saint Louis, which ranks among the worst shooting teams in the country, played above its numbers in the conference tournament and locked down foes on defense. Saint Louis now runs into a Virginia Tech team that doesn?t give away much on the defensive end either. The Hokies rank 25th in defensive efficiency and allow just over 62 points per contest.

With two defense-first teams traveling across the country and playing outside of their comfort (time) zone, I don?t see a lot of points on the board for this Friday finale. I?ve got the Under 126.

 

[Cnotes53]

FRIDAY, MARCH 22
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

NKU at TTU 01:30 PM
TTU -12.5
U 136.0

UCI at KSU 02:00 PM
UCI +3.5
O 118.5

COLG at TENN 02:45 PM
TENN -17.5

WEBB at UVA 03:10 PM
UVA -22.0
U 128.0

ASU at BUFF 04:00 PM
BUFF -5.0
U 158.0

ORE at WIS 04:30 PM
WIS -2.0

WASH at USU 06:50 PM
USU -3.5
U 135.5

 

[Cnotes53]

EVENING BEST BETS:

NDSU at DUKE 07:10 PM
DUKE -27.0
U 148.5

GSU at HOU 07:20 PM
GSU +12.5
O 142.5

LIB at MSST 07:27 PM
LIB +7.0
U 132.5

DRKE at SUU 08:30 PM
SUU +3.5

IONA at UNC 09:20 PM
UNC -23.0
U 165.5

UCF at VCU 09:40 PM
UCF -1.0
U 126.0

OSU at ISU 09:50 PM
ISU -5.0
O 139.5

SLU at VT 09:57 PM
SLU +10.0
U 126.0

 

[Cnotes53]

CBB MARCH MADNESS RECORD OPINIONS AND BEST BETS !

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD

03/22/2019 12-15-0 44.44% -22.50
03/21/2019 15-12-1 55.56% +900
03/20/2019 10-14-0 41.67% -27.00
03/19/2019 9-14-1 39.13% -32.00
03/18/2019 2-0-0 100.00% +10.00

Totals..............48-55-2......46.60%.....-62.50


******************************


BEST BETS:

DATE........................ATS................... ..UNITS..................O/U..................UNITS.............TOTALS

03/22/2019.............5 - 6......................-8.00..................5 - 6...................-8.00................-16.00
03/21/2019.............6 - 3......................+8.50.................3 - 7...................-23.50..............-15.00
03/20/2019.............3 - 7......................-23.00.................1 - 1...................-0.50................-23.50
03/19/2019.............5 - 5......................-2.50...................2 - 6..................-23.00...............-25.50
03/18/2019.............1 - 0......................+5.00..................1 - 0..................+5.00..............+10.00


Totals....................20 - 21.....................-20.00................12 - 20................-50.00..............-70.00

 

[Udog]

 

[Udog]

 

[Cnotes53]

Armadillo: Saturday's six-pack

? Alabama will fire Avery Johnson; Vanderbilt fired Bryce Drew. NCAA tournament is fun, but if you don?t make it, your job is in jeopardy.

? Oakland Raiders signed Mike Glennon as a backup QB.

? Red Sox signed Chris Sale to a 5-year, $150M contract extension.

? A?s 1B Matt Olson had hand surgery, will miss 4-8 weeks.

? Rockets 111, Spurs 105? James Harden scored 61 points; he was 9-13 on arc.

? Wofford?s Fletcher Magee is the all-time leader in 3-point shots made; coming out of high school, he was an unranked recruit. Recruiting services are overrated.


**********

Armadillo: Saturday's Den: Wrapping up a full Friday of hoops

Cal-Irvine 70, Kansas State 64? Anteaters? first-ever NCAA tournament win; they?ve won 17 games in a row, have wins this year at Saint Mary?s, Texas A&M. Very good defensive team.

Disappointing loss for a veteran K-State team, which made the Elite 8 last year.

Iowa 79, Cincinnati 72? Bearcats led by 13 early on, but Iowa made 11-22 on arc, shot 58% inside arc and won a game where most of the crowd in Columbus was pulling for Cincinnati.

Last seven years, Bearcats are 183-59, 95-31 in conference games, but only 3-7 in NCAA tournament games. Three years ago, Mick Cronin pretended he was interested in the UNLV job so he could get financial concessions from the Cincinnati administration. I?m guessing there is a lot of grumbling going on today in Cincinnati.

Oklahoma 95, Ole Miss 72? Sooners made their first eight shots, led 12-0 quickly and jogged home from there. Oklahoma was just stronger, tougher than the Rebels,

Lon Kruger is the only coach to win an NCAA tournament for five different schools; UNLV, Kansas State, Illinois, Florida, Oklahoma. He also coached the Atlanta Hawks for three years.

Texas Tech 72, Northern Kentucky 57? Horizon League teams lost their last eight first round games; their last win was when Brad Stevens was coaching Butler and they made the national title game two years in a row.

Think about that accomplishment; a team from the Horizon League made the national title game two years in a row!!! No wonder the guy is coaching in the NBA now.

Tennessee 77, Colgate 70? Colgate has a kid named Jordan Burns who was told by his HS football coach that he would never play college basketball? he scored 32 points in this game, as Red Raiders gave Tennessee quite a scare.

One of Colgate?s best players, Rapolas Ivanauskas had pink-eye and didn?t play in the second half. Red Raiders made 15-29 on the arc in a strong performance.

Virginia 71, Gardner-Webb 56? Cavaliers were down 14 in first half of this game, as flashbacks from LY?s loss to UMBC were in everyone?s head.

Reality set in after halftime, when Gardner-Webb led by 6. Has to be a tremendous sigh of relief for Virginia- they play Oklahoma Sunday.

Gardner-Webb won games at Georgia Tech, Wake Forest; they were a pretty strong 16-seed.

Buffalo 91, Arizona State 74? Less than six years ago, Buffalo coach Nate Oats was teaching five math classes a day ? algebra, geometry and statistics ? at Romulus HS in Michigan. Now he is coaching a top 25 college team and making a boatload of money. He s very good at his job, but how long will he stay in Buffalo?

Buffalo hammered Arizona in the tournament LY, now this; their game with Texas Tech Sunday will be very good.

None of the play-in game winners won their first round game, which is unusual, first time in nine years.

Oregon 72, Wisconsin 54? Wooten has developed into an elite rim protector for the Ducks, who have won nine games in a row. They play #13-seed Cal-Irvine next.

This will be the 13th 2nd round game between a 12 and 13-seed; favorites went 9-3 vs spread in the first 12.

As of right now, the Big 14 is 6-1 in this tournament, pretty strong showing.

Washington 78, Utah State 61? Rough week for the Mountain West, with Nevada/Utah State going down meekly. Last three years, Mountain West teams are 1-5 in first round games.

Great year for the Aggies, though who went 28-7, winning 17 of their last 19 games. It was their first 20+-win season since 2013.

Duke 85, North Dakota State 62? Friday, a guy with too much money at a Caesars sportsbook placed a $150 money-line bet on Duke at -$15,000. When the Blue Devils won, his profit was $1. One American dollar.

Watching games all day Thursday, think I only heard Zion Williamson?s name once all day; once you get away from ESPN, coverage of Duke is a little more even-handed.

Houston 84, Georgia State 55? This game was 15-3 early; teams combined to go 14-52 on the arc. Cougars shot 71.4% inside the arc; last year, Houston lost 64-63 to Michigan in the second round. Now, they play another Big 14 team (Ohio State) in second round Sunday.

Liberty 80, Mississippi State 76? Bulldogs missed their last eight shots from floor, as Liberty wins its first NCAA tournament game. This is first non-play-in win for the Atlantic Sun since Florida Gulf Coast made the Sweet 16 six years ago.

This is 5th time that the #12 seeds went 3-1 in the first round, first time since 2014. The four #5-seeds played a total of six non-conference road games during the regular season.

North Carolina 88, Iona 73? Gaels led this game 38-33 at halftime, little bit of a red flag for the Tar Heels.

Iona has lost 13 straight NCAA tournament games; last time they got out of the first round was 1980, when their coach was Jim Valvano.

Central Florida 73, VCU 58? At first TV timeout, teams were combined 1-16 from floor; VCU led 3-0. UCF missed its first ten shots from floor, then made their next ten. VCU went over 10:00 without scoring a point midway thru game.

This is the first time since 2001 that all four #9-seeds beat the #8-seeds.

Ohio State 62, Iowa State 59? Cyclones lost six of last eight regular season games, then won the Big X tournament last weekend, then laid an egg here. Teams combined to make 11-42 on the arc; five of the ten starters in this game played 38:00+.

Virginia Tech 66, Saint Louis 52? First NCAA tournament win in dozen years for the Hokies; check status of PG Robinson, who played in this game but may have tweaked a leg when he slipped on a wet spot on the floor in second half.

Billikens turned ball over 18 times (-7), made 4-23 on the arc; their bench was 0-7 from the floor.

 

[Cnotes53]

Today's biggest bets and line moves: Bettors back Murray State odds vs. Florida State

Murray State has won 12 in a row SU entering Saturday's NCAA Tournament tilt vs. Florida State. The Seminoles went from -4.5 to -5.5, but Racers money has since piled in, taking the line back to 4.5.

It?s on to the Round of 32 as March Madness rolls into the weekend, with eight games on the Saturday slate. Covers checks in on the action and odds movement for a few matchups, with insights from Scott Shelton, sportsbook supervisor at The Mirage on the Las Vegas Strip.
No. 12 Murray State Racers vs. No. 4 Florida State Seminoles ? Open: -4.5; Move: -5; Move: -5.5; Move: -5; Move: -4.5

The 12 vs. 5 upset happened three times in the first round, and Murray State was one of those victors. The Racers (28-4 SU, 20-10 ATS) thumped Marquette 83-74 as 3-point West Region underdogs Thursday, winning their 12th in a row SU and moving to 8-2 ATS in their last 10 outings.

Florida State is on a 13-1 SU roll (9-5 ATS) entering this 6:10 p.m. ET clash. The Seminoles (28-7 SU, 17-17-1 ATS) held off No. 13 seed Vermont 76-69 as 8.5-point favorites.

?That game was busy from the time we first hung it,? Shelton said of action at The Mirage and other MGM Resorts sportsbooks. ?Sharps laid 4.5 with Florida State, we went to 5.5, and sharps took it back. Now, it?s all Murray State. Money is about 8/1 and ticket count is just over 2/1 on Murray State. And they?re playing Murray State moneyline, as well. That?s about 4/1 money on the Racers.?


No. 5 Auburn Tigers vs. No. 4 Kansas Jayhawks ? Open: +1.5; Move: +2

Kansas bounced back nicely from a blowout loss to Iowa State in the Big 12 title game. The Jayhawks (26-9 SU, 17-18 ATS) flattened Northeastern 87-53 laying 7 points in their Midwest Region opener.

Auburn won four games in four days to claim the Southeastern Conference tournament title, then just barely kept rolling in the Round of 64. The Tigers (27-9 SU, 18-16-1 ATS) got all they could handle from No. 12 seed New Mexico State, snaring a 78-77 victory as 5.5-point faves Thursday.

Although the line ticked up a half-point to Auburn -2, Kansas is drawing more cash.

?They?re playing the ?dog in that game, too,? Shelton said of pointspread play in the last game of the day, a 9:40 p.m. ET tipoff. ?Just over 2/1 money in favor of Kansas, and the ticket count is roughly 2/1 on Kansas, too. And on the moneyline, there?s three times as much money on Kansas.?


No. 6 Maryland Terrapins vs. No. 3 Louisiana State Tigers ? Open: -2.5; Move: -2; Move: -2.5

Louisiana State made it to Saturday?s first tip, a 12:10 p.m. ET start in the East Region, by dodging what became a trendy upset pick in the first round. The Tigers (27-6 SU, 20-12-1 ATS) survived a dogfight with Yale in a 79-74 victory laying 5.5 points Thursday.

Likewise, Maryland got all it could handle from another team considered a sexy pick in the tournament. The Terrapins (23-10 SU, 16-16-1 ATS) outlasted No. 11 seed Belmont 79-77 giving 3.5 points Thursday.

?It?s pretty lopsided. They?re playing LSU right now,? Shelton said. ?Money is 4/1 and ticket count is over 4/1 on LSU.?


No. 6 Villanova Wildcats vs. No. 3 Purdue Boilermakers ? Open: -3.5; Move: -4; Move: -3.5

Defending national champion Villanova isn?t quite that strong this year, but has won four in a row and six of seven. The Wildcats (26-9 SU, 21-14 ATS) got by No. 11 seed St. Mary?s 61-57 Thursday, narrowly cashing as 3.5-point favorites.

Purdue saw a 6-1 run halted in the Big Ten quarterfinals, but got back on track in the NCAA Tourney. The Boilermakers (24-9 SU, 18-14-1 ATS) beat No. 14 seed Old Dominion 61-48 and, like Villanova, barely covered the number as 12.5-point faves.

?They?re playing Villanova,? Shelton said of bettors' preference in an 8:40 p.m. ET South Region contest. ?The ticket count is really close, but the money is pretty lopsided, 3/1 on Villanova.?


No. 9 Baylor Bears vs. No. 1 Gonzaga Bulldogs ? Open: -12.5; Move: -13; Move: -13.5

Gonzaga stubbed its toe against St. Mary?s in the West Coast Conference final, but had no issues regaining its footing for the Big Dance. The Bulldogs (31-3 SU, 22-12 ATS) did what No. 1 seeds should do in the first round, boatracing Fairleigh Dickinson 87-49 as massive 28.5-point favorites.

Baylor entered the NCAA Tournament on a four-game losing streak and was 0-5-1 ATS in its previous six games, but also found its form Thursday. The Bears (20-13 SU, 16-15-2 ATS) beat Syracuse 78-69 as 2.5-point pups to reach this 7:10 p.m. ET meeting in the West Region.

?They?re laying it with the Zags,? Shelton said of the 1-point uptick in the spread. ?The public is all over Gonzaga.?

 

[Cnotes53]

Saturday's odds and best bets for South Region Round 2
Brandon DuBreuil

The South Region has just one Round of 32 game on Saturday as the sixth-seeded Villanova Wildcats take on the third-seeded Purdue Boilermakers. The back-to-back national champs have been inconsistent this season ? will their 13-game winning streak at the tournament come to an end? We break down the odds and total while giving predictions and best bets.

(6) Villanova Wildcats vs (3) Purdue Boilermakers

Odds: Purdue -4, 137
Start time: 5:15 p.m. ET, Wells Fargo Arena, Des Moines, IA

Villanova just gets it done in the tournament. After an up-and-down season, the Wildcats grinded through a slow-paced game with Saint Mary?s for a 61-57 win. It was the 13th consecutive win for Nova at the NCAA Tournament and its 25th consecutive win on a neutral court.

It was the three ball that was the difference on Thursday as the Wildcats hit on 8-of-20 attempts despite facing a Gaels squad that ranked 55th in the nation in defending the three. The eight 3-pointers fell below its average of 10.5 as Villanova gets 42.7 percent of its points from the long ball, the ninth-highest rate in the nation.

Purdue got here by jumping out to a big early lead and then cruising to a 61-48 win over Old Dominion where star guard Carsen Edwards scored 26 points, though he still shot just 30.4 percent from the field and hasn?t cracked the 33.3 percent shooting mark in his last four as he plays through a sore back.

Purdue doesn?t apply the same pressure as Saint Mary?s on the 3-point line, ranked 154th in defending the three. What Purdue can do, however, is hit the three as it averages 9.7 per game, the most in the Big Ten, and it hit another nine on Thursday against the Monarchs.

Neither team plays overly fast here but both are remarkably efficient, with Purdue ranked fifth and Nova 16th in KenPom?s Adjusted Offensive Efficiency metric. Expect the points to come early and often, with the majority coming via the three ball, and take the Over 137.

Looking at the sides, here we have a situation to get the back-to-back national champs at plus points. The Wildcats have been inconsistent this season and at times have looked terrible but they are still led by two seniors ? Phil Booth and Eric Paschall ? who have two national titles to their names. Nova has also been remarkable against the number in the tournament as it is 14-3 ATS in its last 17 March Madness games. Take the plus points and back the Wildcats.

 

[Cnotes53]

Saturday's odds and best bets for East Region Round 2
Jason Logan

March Madness rolls on in the East Region with two Round of 32 tilts on the NCAA Tournament betting board. Jason Logan breaks down the odds and action with his best bets and predictions for Minnesota vs. Michigan State, and LSU vs. Maryland.

No. 6 MARYLAND TERRAPINS VS NO. 3 LSU TIGERS

Odds: LSU -2.5 145 at FanDuel Sportsbook
Start Time: 12:10 p.m. ET, VyStar Veterans Memorial Arena, Jacksonville, Florida

The Tigers leaned on their size and athleticism to hold off Yale in the Round of 64, out-rebounding the smaller Bulldogs 42-33. Now, LSU takes on a Maryland team that stands taller than them, ranked 47th in height and 16th in total rebounds (39.2 per game).

Facing taller foes isn?t anything new to Louisiana State, which took on eight SEC opponents (12 games) that towered over them. However, the Tigers mustered on average just 76.6 points per game in regulation in those dozen matchups ? a dip from their 81.3 scoring average on the season.

Louisiana State looks to attack the rim and draw fouls, picking up almost 23 percent of its offense off of free throws. In those games against taller SEC opponents, they were extra aggressive, but they may not get those freebie points versus the Terps.

Maryland has done a good job keeping the whistles from blowing, getting called for an average of just 15.5 personal fouls per game and allowing opponents to collect just 17 percent of their points from free throws.

The Terrapins held their ground against aggressive Big Ten foes like Iowa and Minnesota, who also depend on getting to the line. Maryland won both meetings with the Gophers and knocked off Iowa, allowing an average of 64 points in those three games.

Louisiana State will need to find another way to put up points, and I?m going Under the Tigers? team total of 73.5 Saturday.


NO. 10 MINNESOTA GOLDEN GOPHERS VS NO. 2 MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS

Odds: MSU -10, 142 at FanDuel Sportsbooks
Start Time: 7:45 p.m. ET, Wells Fargo Arena, Des Moines, Iowa

The Golden Gophers benefitted from a March miracle in their opening game versus Louisville Thursday. After averaging only 5.4 made 3-pointers all season (13th fewest in the country), Minnesota was money from beyond the arc, knocking down 11 triples on 41 percent shooting from outside.

I?m not buying it. The Gophers were 10 for 36 from distance in the three games prior to Thursday and face a pissed-off Michigan State team coming off a very uncomfortable win over Bradley in the Round of 64.

Michigan State defeated Minnesota 79-55 as a 13.5-point home favorite back on February 9, limiting the Gophers to 36 percent shooting from the floor (5 for 14 from 3-point land). The Spartans pulled away in the second half with 44 points in the final 20 minutes, which has been somewhat of a calling card for MSU.

Michigan State sprung for 42 second-half points Thursday and is averaging 40.6 points in the final 20 minutes over the last five games. With Minnesota coming back to earth and Izzo lighting a fire under this team, I?m going to ride those strong showings after the break with a play on MSU -4.5 second-half spread.

 

[Cnotes53]

Saturday's odds and best bets for Midwest Region Round 2
Andrew Caley

The Tigers were cruising until the final mintues against New Mexico State, they can't afford to stumble like that against a much stronger Kansas team.

The Midwest Region tips off its Round of 32 Saturday with a pair of intriguing matchups. Kentucky could be without its best player when they take on tournament darling Wofford, while Auburn takes on Kansas in a 4-5 matchup of Power 5 teams. We break down the odds and totals for all three games while giving predictions and best bets.

(7) WOFFORD TERRIERS vs (2) KENTUCKY WILDCATS

Odds:
Start Time: 2:40 p.m. ET, VyStar Veterans Memorial Arena, Jacksonville, Florida

Second-seeded Kentucky will likely be without its leading scorer and rebounder for a second straight game when it meets No. 7 seed Wofford Saturday.

PJ Washington missed Thursday's 79-44 thrashing of 15th-seeded Abilene Christian because of a sprained foot, but his absence could be felt against the Terriers.

Keldon Johnson stepped up in Washington?s absence with 25 points and six boards. But he is nowhere near the defender Washington is and the Wildcats perimeter defense, which ranks 203rd in opponent 3-point percentage, could struggle against the sharp-shooting Terriers.

ACU ranked 195th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency compared to ninth for the Terriers. That number is fueled by Wofford?s prolific 3-point shooting. They hit nearly 42 percent of their shots from behind the arc, led by senior Fletcher Magee, who broke the NCAA record for most 3-pointers made in a career in Wofford?s win over Seton Hall.

Kentucky is the deeper and more athletic team, and in the end, it may be too much for Wofford to overcome. But the 'Cats are prone to turnovers sometimes and that could lead to more shooting opportunites for Wofford. Plus, the Terriers seems to have some of that tournament magic surrounding it and as dangerous as they are from deep, they should be able to keep this close until the final minutes. Take the points with the Terriers.


(5) AUBURN TIGERS vs (4) KANSAS JAYHAWKS

Odds: KU +2, 147.5
Start Time: 9:40 p.m. ET, Vivint Smart Home Arena, Salt Lake City, Utah

Auburn and Kansas come into their Second Round matchup having very different opening games. The Tigers escaped with a hard-fought 78-77 victory over New Mexico State after nearly blowing a seven-point lead in the final minute, while Kansas got to put in neutral in the second half of its 87-53 steamrolling of Northeastern.

The Tigers played pretty poorly down the stretch versus the Aggies, but there were also some calls that didn?t go their way. Either way this game shouldn?t have been this close, and the Tigers will want to come out strong to make amends.

Auburn will once again rely on its 3-point shooting to carry it in this one. The Tigers take and make a lot of 3?s, hitting nearly 38 percent of their attempts and are led by their guard duo of Bryce Brown and Jared Harper score 15.7 and 15.2 points respectively hitting nearly 40 percent of their shots from beyond the arc. They will face an athletic Jayhawks team, that while athletic, has some problems defending the perimeter, ranking 110th in the country in opponent 3-point percentage.

Kansas on the other hand, will attempt to attack Auburn on the interior, behind the likes of Dedric Lawson (19.3 ppg). The Jayhawks scored 50 points in the paint for the second straight game in their win over Northeastern and the Tigers ranked 214th in opponents 2-point field goal percentage.

Kansas and Auburn are equipped to score on one another and combine to score an average of just over 155 points per game. Take the Over in this matchup.

But the Tigers have another small edge here. They really hustle. That has resulted in them ranking in the top 15 in steals and block, and Kansas can get sloppy with the ball at times. The Jayhawks ranked 296th in turnovers this season. Lay the points with the Tigers to cover as small faves. Parlay at your own risk.

 

[Cnotes53]

Saturday's odds and best bets for West Region Round 2
Brandon DuBreuil

The West Region tips off its Round of 32 games on Saturday which means we get to see Ja Morant light up a basketball court again after he put up the performance of the tournament so far on Thursday. We break down the odds and totals for all three games while giving predictions and best bets.

(10) Florida Gators vs (2) Michigan Wolverines

Odds: Michigan -7, 120.5
Start time: 5:15 p.m. ET, Wells Fargo Arena, Des Moines, IA

If you?re looking for a pretty basketball game look elsewhere as the defensive-minded Wolverines and Gators go head to head with a total of 120.5. Michigan got to Round 2 by dominating Montana in the first round (for the second straight year) while Florida played a solid first half and then hung on for dear life in edging Nevada.

I loved Florida to win on Thursday but that was mostly due to Nevada being overrated. And let?s be honest, Nevada probably should have won that game but the Wolf Pack made mistake after mistake to let Florida off the hook. The Gators looked shell shocked for a good portion of the second half as Nevada applied full-court pressure and if a couple of breaks had went the Wolf Pack's way, they'd be the ones taking on Michigan today.

They're not, however, and that gives us the chance to fade the Gators. The Wolverines should win this game rather easily and lately, when they win, they cover, as Michigan is 11-0 ATS in its last 11 wins. Back the maize and blue -7.

(12) Murray State Racers vs (4) Florida State Seminoles

Odds: Florida State -5, 143.5
Start time: 6:10 p.m. ET, XL Center, Hartford

If you didn?t know Ja Morant?s name before Thursday, you certainly do now after the sophomore guard recorded the NCAA Tournament?s first triple-double since Draymond Green posted one in 2012. He was absolutely ridiculous against Marquette, scoring or assisting on 53 points as the Racers dropped 83 on the Golden Eagles. Murray State has won 12 games in a row, going 8-4 ATS with the total going 6-6 over that span.

Florida State got a first-half scare against Vermont (with the Catamounts getting us a first-half winner) but the game went exactly as I had predicted with the Seminoles using their depth to pull away in the second.

Here?s what stood out to me from the Seminoles win: They allowed Vermont to hit 16 threes on 50 percent shooting from downtown. Florida State hasn?t been terrible at defending the three this season, but they haven?t been great either, allowing opponents to hit at 33.3 percent (109th in the nation).

Murray State was 9 of 18 from downtown against Marquette and is shooting 34.8 percent on the season. The Racers will likely be dialing it up from three against Florida State after the towering Seminoles allowed just seven field goals from inside the arc against Vermont.

Another factor I love is that Murray State allows opponents to shoot 48 percent on two-point field goals and I expect the Seminoles to try and use their size inside to exploit the smaller Racers. Bank on lots of points in this one and take the Over 143.5.


(9) Baylor Bears vs (1) Gonzaga Bulldogs

Odds: Gonzaga -12.5, 148
Start time: 7:10 p.m. ET, Vivint Smart Home Area, Salt Lake City

Coming into the tournament, Baylor had lost four straight and were averaging just 54 points per game. Then the Bears went out and lit up Syracuse?s 2/3 zone defense for 78 points behind 16-of-34 shooting from the 3-point line.

It was a nice performance, but sorry Bears fans, it comes to an end on Saturday against a Gonzaga team that is very good at defending the three, allowing opponents to shoot at just 30.8 percent from downtown (25th-best in the nation).

The Zags came out with something to prove in the first round after losing in the WCC title game and they took it out on hapless Fairleigh Dickinson, dropping 53 in the first half en route to an 87-49 win.

There are two more reasons why I like the Bulldogs to win easily. Makai Mason, Baylor?s best player, played well against Cuse but appeared to be in discomfort all evening. He?s been bothered by a toe injury and the quick turnaround here isn?t going to help him.

Finally, the Bears just aren?t a good ATS team as they are 2-8-2 in their last 12 games and 0-7-1 ATS in their last eight losses. I?m double dipping on the Zags here and backing them at -7 for the first half and -12.5 for the game.

 

[Cnotes53]

NCAAB
Dunkel

Saturday, March 23


Arkansas @ Indiana

Game 853-854
March 23, 2019 @ 12:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Arkansas
59.027
Indiana
66.500
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Indiana
by 7 1/2
140
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Indiana
by 5 1/2
149 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Indiana
(-5 1/2); Under

Maryland @ LSU

Game 841-842
March 23, 2019 @ 12:10 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Maryland
63.905
LSU
68.931
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
LSU
by 5
141
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LSU
by 2
145 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
LSU
(-2); Under

Lipscomb @ NC-Greensboro

Game 855-856
March 23, 2019 @ 2:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Lipscomb
60.961
NC-Greensboro
55.745
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Lipscomb
by 5
162
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Lipscomb
by 1 1/2
156
Dunkel Pick:
Lipscomb
(-1 1/2); Over

Wofford @ Kentucky

Game 843-844
March 23, 2019 @ 2:40 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Wofford
69.684
Kentucky
77.602
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Kentucky
by 8
144
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Kentucky
by 5
138 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Kentucky
(-5); Over

Florida @ Michigan

Game 847-848
March 23, 2019 @ 5:15 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Florida
71.108
Michigan
75.713
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Michigan
by 4 1/2
119
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Michigan
by 6 1/2
123
Dunkel Pick:
Florida
(+6 1/2); Under

Murray State @ Florida State

Game 839-840
March 23, 2019 @ 6:10 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Murray State
71.852
Florida State
70.813
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Murray State
by 1
153
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Florida State
by 4 1/2
144 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Murray State
(+4 1/2); Over

FIU @ Texas State

Game 857-858
March 23, 2019 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
FIU
50.295
Texas State
51.988
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Texas State
by 1 1/2
152
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Texas State
by 7 1/2
148 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
FIU
(+7 1/2); Over

Baylor @ Gonzaga

Game 851-852
March 23, 2019 @ 7:10 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Baylor
64.230
Gonzaga
82.147
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Gonzaga
by 18
153
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Gonzaga
by 13 1/2
148
Dunkel Pick:
Gonzaga
(-13 1/2); Over

Minnesota @ Michigan State

Game 845-846
March 23, 2019 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Minnesota
68.783
Michigan State
75.790
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Michigan State
by 7
145
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Michigan State
by 10
142
Dunkel Pick:
Minnesota
(+10); Over

Villanova @ Purdue

Game 837-838
March 23, 2019 @ 9:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Villanova
73.232
Purdue
69.622
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Villanova
by 3 1/2
142
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Purdue
by 3 1/2
137
Dunkel Pick:
Villanova
(+3 1/2); Over

Auburn @ Kansas

Game 849-850
March 23, 2019 @ 9:45 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Auburn
71.954
Kansas
67.255
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Auburn
by 4 1/2
155
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Auburn
by 2
147 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Auburn
(-2); Over

 

[Cnotes53]

NCAAB
Long Sheet

Saturday, March 23

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

VILLANOVA (26 - 9) vs. PURDUE (24 - 9) - 3/23/2019, 9:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
VILLANOVA is 49-26 ATS (+20.4 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
VILLANOVA is 49-26 ATS (+20.4 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
VILLANOVA is 18-4 ATS (+13.6 Units) in all neutral court games over the last 2 seasons.
VILLANOVA is 23-12 ATS (+9.8 Units) on Saturday games over the last 3 seasons.
VILLANOVA is 24-9 ATS (+14.1 Units) after a non-conference game over the last 2 seasons.
VILLANOVA is 18-4 ATS (+13.6 Units) when playing on a neutral court over the last 2 seasons.
VILLANOVA is 25-8 ATS (+16.2 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
VILLANOVA is 119-85 ATS (+25.5 Units) after allowing 60 points or less since 1997.
VILLANOVA is 15-4 ATS (+10.6 Units) in all tournament games over the last 2 seasons.
VILLANOVA is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in a NCAA tournament games over the last 2 seasons.
VILLANOVA is 45-21 ATS (+21.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
VILLANOVA is 29-14 ATS (+13.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
VILLANOVA is 1-0 against the spread versus PURDUE over the last 3 seasons
VILLANOVA is 1-0 straight up against PURDUE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MURRAY ST (28 - 4) vs. FLORIDA ST (28 - 7) - 3/23/2019, 3:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MURRAY ST is 20-10 ATS (+9.0 Units) in all games this season.
MURRAY ST is 20-10 ATS (+9.0 Units) in all lined games this season.
MURRAY ST is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) on Saturday games this season.
MURRAY ST is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) after a non-conference game this season.
MURRAY ST is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in non-conference games this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MARYLAND (23 - 10) vs. LSU (27 - 6) - 3/23/2019, 3:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WOFFORD (30 - 4) vs. KENTUCKY (28 - 6) - 3/23/2019, 2:40 PM
Top Trends for this game.
KENTUCKY is 93-65 ATS (+21.5 Units) in March games since 1997.
WOFFORD is 19-11 ATS (+6.9 Units) in all games this season.
WOFFORD is 19-11 ATS (+6.9 Units) in all lined games this season.
WOFFORD is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in all neutral court games over the last 2 seasons.
WOFFORD is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in road games in March games over the last 2 seasons.
WOFFORD is 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) after a non-conference game over the last 3 seasons.
WOFFORD is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when playing on a neutral court over the last 2 seasons.
WOFFORD is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in road games after scoring 80 points or more this season.
WOFFORD is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games in all tournament games over the last 2 seasons.
WOFFORD is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
WOFFORD is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MINNESOTA (22 - 13) vs. MICHIGAN ST (29 - 6) - 3/23/2019, 3:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MINNESOTA is 94-135 ATS (-54.5 Units) in road games against conference opponents since 1997.
MICHIGAN ST is 24-11 ATS (+11.9 Units) in all games this season.
MICHIGAN ST is 24-11 ATS (+11.9 Units) in all lined games this season.
MICHIGAN ST is 100-65 ATS (+28.5 Units) when the total is 140 to 149.5 since 1997.
MICHIGAN ST is 22-9 ATS (+12.1 Units) as a favorite this season.
MICHIGAN ST is 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) against conference opponents this season.
MICHIGAN ST is 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) after a non-conference game over the last 2 seasons.
MICHIGAN ST is 20-7 ATS (+12.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
MICHIGAN ST is 11-4 ATS (+6.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
MICHIGAN ST is 4-1 against the spread versus MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
MICHIGAN ST is 4-1 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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FLORIDA (20 - 15) vs. MICHIGAN (29 - 6) - 3/23/2019, 5:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MICHIGAN is 45-28 ATS (+14.2 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
MICHIGAN is 45-28 ATS (+14.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
MICHIGAN is 36-24 ATS (+9.6 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
MICHIGAN is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) in all neutral court games over the last 2 seasons.
MICHIGAN is 69-47 ATS (+17.3 Units) in March games since 1997.
MICHIGAN is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) when playing on a neutral court over the last 2 seasons.
MICHIGAN is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) in all tournament games over the last 2 seasons.
MICHIGAN is 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
MICHIGAN is 27-13 ATS (+12.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last 2 seasons.
MICHIGAN is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game after 15+ games over the last 3 seasons.
FLORIDA is 139-107 ATS (+21.3 Units) in non-conference games since 1997.
FLORIDA is 82-53 ATS (+23.7 Units) in all tournament games since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

AUBURN (27 - 9) vs. KANSAS (26 - 9) - 3/23/2019, 3:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
KANSAS is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in road games on Saturday games this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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BAYLOR (20 - 13) vs. GONZAGA (31 - 3) - 3/23/2019, 7:10 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GONZAGA is 21-12 ATS (+7.8 Units) in all games this season.
GONZAGA is 21-12 ATS (+7.8 Units) in all lined games this season.
GONZAGA is 20-11 ATS (+7.9 Units) as a favorite this season.
GONZAGA is 160-116 ATS (+32.4 Units) when playing with one or less days rest since 1997.
GONZAGA is 11-4 ATS (+6.6 Units) after a non-conference game this season.
GONZAGA is 11-4 ATS (+6.6 Units) in non-conference games this season.
GONZAGA is 10-3 ATS (+6.7 Units) after allowing 60 points or less this season.
GONZAGA is 17-8 ATS (+8.2 Units) after scoring 80 points or more this season.
BAYLOR is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games when playing with one or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ARKANSAS (18 - 15) at INDIANA (18 - 15) - 3/23/2019, 12:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ARKANSAS is 85-128 ATS (-55.8 Units) in road games since 1997.
ARKANSAS is 85-128 ATS (-55.8 Units) in road lined games since 1997.
ARKANSAS is 47-78 ATS (-38.8 Units) in road games on Saturday games since 1997.
ARKANSAS is 44-75 ATS (-38.5 Units) in road games after scoring 80 points or more since 1997.
ARKANSAS is 101-148 ATS (-61.8 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1997.
ARKANSAS is 69-100 ATS (-41.0 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games since 1997.
INDIANA is 85-58 ATS (+21.2 Units) in home games in non-conference games since 1997.
INDIANA is 62-39 ATS (+19.1 Units) in home games after scoring 80 points or more since 1997.
ARKANSAS is 24-11 ATS (+11.9 Units) when the total is 140 to 149.5 over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
ARKANSAS is 1-0 against the spread versus INDIANA over the last 3 seasons
ARKANSAS is 1-0 straight up against INDIANA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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LIPSCOMB (26 - 7) at UNC-GREENSBORO (29 - 6) - 3/23/2019, 2:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
UNC-GREENSBORO is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
UNC-GREENSBORO is 20-10 ATS (+9.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
LIPSCOMB is 11-4 ATS (+6.6 Units) in road games this season.
LIPSCOMB is 11-4 ATS (+6.6 Units) in road lined games this season.
LIPSCOMB is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in non-conference games this season.
LIPSCOMB is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) in road games after scoring 80 points or more since 1997.
LIPSCOMB is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
UNC-GREENSBORO is 67-95 ATS (-37.5 Units) after a non-conference game since 1997.
UNC-GREENSBORO is 37-58 ATS (-26.8 Units) after scoring 80 points or more since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

FLA INTERNATIONAL (19 - 13) at TEXAS ST (24 - 9) - 3/23/2019, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TEXAS ST is 27-13 ATS (+12.7 Units) in all tournament games since 1997.
FLA INTERNATIONAL is 20-10 ATS (+9.0 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
TEXAS ST is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) in home games after a conference game over the last 2 seasons.
TEXAS ST is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) in home games after scoring 60 points or less over the last 2 seasons.
TEXAS ST is 12-27 ATS (-17.7 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

 

[Cnotes53]

NCAAB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Saturday, March 23

LSU was just too big/athletic for Yale Thursday, hanging on for 79-74 win after leading by 16 at the half; four Tigers played 30:00+ in this game. Tigers are experience team #324 whose coach is suspended for NCAA issues- they do force turnovers 20.4% of time, and have a very good PG. Maryland went 13-7 in Big 14; they split last eight games. Terrapins are #350 experience team whose defensive eFG% is #25 in country, but they don?t force many turnovers, only 14.1 per game, 2nd-fewest in country. Turgeon is 9-8 in NCAA games, 2-4 in 2nd round games. Since 2010, when #3-6 seeds play in second round, teams are both 6-6 vs spread.

Wofford won its last 21 games; their last loss was Dec 21 at Miss State. Terriers made 13-28 on arc in their win over Seton Hall- they played four starters 32:00+. Wofford is experience team #135 (#2 in MC) that shoots 41.7% on arc, #2 in country. Wofford is 10-4 outside SoCon; they won at South Carolina of SEC- they lost by 11 at Oklahoma, 25 at Kansas, 11 at home to North Carolina. Kentucky jogged in their first round game; Washington isn?t expected to play in this game either. Calipari won seven of last eight second round games, covering only one of last four. Last three years, underdogs are 5-2 vs spread when #2-7 seeds meet in the second round.

Florida is experience team #270 that plays pace #343; they were up 18 on Nevada Thursday, hung on to win by 9. Florida played three starters 34:00+ vs Nevada; two of them are freshmen. Gators are 9-5 outside SEC; they force turnovers 22.6% of time (#16). Michigan cruised in its first round game; they?re 12-0 outside Big 14, albeit vs NC schedule #305. Wolverines are #242 experience team whose eFG% defense is #7 in country. Since 2011, #10-seeds who win their first round game are 9-1 vs spread in 2nd round. Michigan also plays a slow pace (#319).

Last five years, when a #12-seed pulls a first round upset, they were only 1-5 vs spread in second round. Murray State crushed Marquette Thursday, winning by 19; Racers have an NBA player in Morant, but Florida State is a hell of a lot deeper/more athletic than Marquette. Seminoles are 13-1 outside ACC, beating SE Missouri of OVC by 17- their subs play minutes #32. FSU won 15 of its last 17 games; they had tough time with Vermont Thursday, leading by only one with 10:00 left. Senior F Cofer missed this game (foot), then found out after game his father passed away (check status). Only two Seminoles played 30:00+ Thursday.

Last four years, #1-seeds are 6-9 vs spread in their 2nd round game. Gonzaga won by 38 Thursday; they?re experience team #104 that is 31-3 this year, 14-2 outside the feeble WCC. Zags won their last four second round games (3-1 vs spread); their bench plays minutes #310; could that be a factor in SLC?s altitude? Baylor made 16-34 on arc in its win over Syracuse that snapped Bears? 4-game losing skid. Three Bears played 33:00+ in that game, which Syracuse?s PG missed. Baylor is experience team #252 whose bench plays #61 minutes- they?re #2 offensive rebounding team in country. Bears are 9-4 outside Big X.

Since 2011, #10-seeds who win their first round game are 9-1 vs spread in 2nd round. Michigan State beat Minnesota 79-55 (-14) at home Feb 9; Spartans won five of last six series games, with last three wins by 18+ points. MSU hasn?t been to a Sweet 16 since 2015; they?re 2-4 vs spread in last six second round games. State won six in row, 11 of last 12 games; they held last three foes to 60 or fewer points. Spartans are experience team #138 whose defensive eFG% is #8 in country. Minnesota won five of last seven games- they don?t take many 3?s or sub a lot; Gophers played three guys 38:00+ vs Louisville, but they won the game with surprising ease.

Villanova survived Saint Mary?s 61-57 Thursday; they played four starters 32:00+, used only one sub more than 3:00. Wildcats won two of last three national titles, but since 2010, they?re still only 2-4 in 2nd round games. Villanova plays pace #334; they get 42.7% of their points behind arc (#9). Purdue held off Old Dominion 61-48 Thursday; Cline was 1-11 on arc- he came in shooting 41.1% on arc. Edwarrds was 7-23 from floor playing whole 40:00. Since 2010, when #3-6 seeds play in second round, teams are both 6-6 vs spread. Painter is 4-4 in second round games, winning his last two.

Since 2013, when #4-5 seeds played in 2nd round, favorites were 9-3 vs spread in those games, and #4-seed wasn?t always favored. Auburn won its last nine games, surviving low basketball IQ in its 78-77 win Thursday; Tigers played 10 guys 10:00+ in that game, with no one playing more than 31:00. Auburn forces turnovers 25.3% of time, #1 in country; they?re experience team #36 that is 12-2 outside the SEC. Kansas won nine of its last 12 games; they pounded Northeastern Thursday- nine Jayhawks played 11:00+. Kansas is experience team #331 that that plays pace #65. Bill Self won nine of his last 12 second round games, going 6-6 vs spread.

Saturday?s other tournament games
Arkansas beat Indiana 73-72 at home Nov 18, with big man Gafford scoring 27 for the Hogs; now Gafford has quit so he can get ready for the NBA Draft. Razorbacks won four of last five games; seven of the nine guys they used in Tuesday?s win at Providence are frosh/sophs. Indiana won five of its last six games, winning last four at home. Hoosiers were down 6 at the half to St Francis in last game Tuesday, but won by 17, scoring 55 points in 2nd half.

Lipscomb won five of its last six games, pulling slight upset at Davidson Tuesday; Bisons won eight of their last nine road games- they lost A-Sun title game at home. Lipscomb is experience team #51 that starts two juniors, three seniors. NC-Greensboro won seven of its last eight games; they force turnovers 22.3% of time (#19). Spartans start two juniors, two seniors, making 12-27 on arc in their win over Campbell Tuesday.

FIU hasn?t played in ten days; they?re 5-4 outside Conference USA, with four non-D-I wins. FIU is experience team #75 that plays fastest paced games in whole country- they force turnovers 23.5% of time (#7), but they can?t shoot (29.8% on arc, 64.7% on line). Texas State plays tempo #304; they lost three of last four games, they?re 2-0 vs C-USA teams this year, beating Rice and UTSA. Bobcats are 24-9, but have #206 eFG%.

 

[Cnotes53]

NCAAB

Saturday, March 23

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
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Arkansas @ Indiana
Arkansas
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Arkansas's last 5 games on the road
Arkansas is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Indiana
Indiana is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Indiana is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games

Maryland @ LSU
Maryland
Maryland is 14-7 SU in its last 21 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Maryland's last 6 games
LSU
LSU is 20-3 SU in its last 23 games
LSU is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games

Lipscomb @ UNC Greensboro
Lipscomb
No trends to report
UNC Greensboro
UNC Greensboro is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
UNC Greensboro is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games

Wofford @ Kentucky
Wofford
Wofford is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Wofford is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Kentucky
Kentucky is 18-3 SU in its last 21 games
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Kentucky's last 14 games

Florida @ Michigan
Florida
Florida is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Florida's last 5 games
Michigan
Michigan is 19-6 SU in its last 25 games
Michigan is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games

Murray State @ Florida State
Murray State
Murray State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Murray State is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Florida State
Florida State is 15-2 SU in its last 17 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Florida State's last 9 games

Florida International @ Texas State
Florida International
Florida International is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
Florida International is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
Texas State
Texas State is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Texas State's last 5 games at home

Baylor @ Gonzaga
Baylor
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Baylor's last 9 games
Baylor is 3-7-2 ATS in its last 12 games
Gonzaga
Gonzaga is 22-1 SU in its last 23 games
Gonzaga is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games

Minnesota @ Michigan State
Minnesota
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Minnesota's last 6 games when playing Michigan State
Minnesota is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
Michigan State
Michigan State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Michigan State is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Minnesota

Villanova @ Purdue
Villanova
Villanova is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Villanova's last 5 games
Purdue
Purdue is 15-3 SU in its last 18 games
Purdue is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games

Auburn @ Kansas
Auburn
Auburn is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Auburn is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
Kansas
Kansas is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games

 

[Cnotes53]

837Villanova -838 Purdue
VILLANOVA is 11-1 ATS (9.9 Units) in road games versus good defensive teams - shooting pct defense of <=42% over the last 2 seasons.

839Murray St -840 Florida St
MURRAY ST is 7-0 ATS (7 Units) in road games after covering 2 of their last 3 against the spread in the current season.

841Maryland -842 Lsu
LSU is 7-0 ATS (7 Units) when the line is +3 to -3 in the current season.

843Wofford -844 Kentucky
WOFFORD is 10-0 ATS (10 Units) in road games after having won 15 or more of their last 20 games in the current season.

845Minnesota -846 Michigan St
MICHIGAN ST is 8-0 ATS (8 Units) in road games versus teams who are called for 17 or less fouls/game in the current season.

847Florida -848 Michigan
FLORIDA is 8-0 ATS (8 Units) in road games versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing <=14 turnovers/game in the current season.

849Auburn -850 Kansas
KANSAS are 130-101 ATS (18.9 Units) when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) after 15 or more games since 1997.

851Baylor -852 Gonzaga
GONZAGA is 8-1 ATS (6.9 Units) after having won 5 or 6 of their last 7 games in the current season.

853Arkansas -854 Indiana
INDIANA is 8-0 ATS (8 Units) in home games after covering 5 or 6 of their last 7 against the spread over the last 2 seasons.

853Arkansas -854 Indiana
Archie Miller is 8-0 ATS (8 Units) in home games after covering 5 or 6 of their last 7 against the spread (Coach of INDIANA)

855Lipscomb -856 Unc Greensboro
LIPSCOMB is 7-1 ATS (5.9 Units) in road games in non-conference games in the current season.

855Lipscomb -856 Unc Greensboro
LIPSCOMB is 7-1 ATS (5.9 Units) in road games vs. winning teams in the current season.

857Fla International -858 Texas St
TEXAS ST is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) in home games versus good ball handling teams - committing <=14 turnovers/game after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons.

877Wichita St -878 Clemson
WICHITA ST is 10-1 ATS (8.9 Units) versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing <=14 turnovers/game after 15+ games in the current season.

897Xavier -898 Texas
XAVIER is 11-3 ATS (7.7 Units) versus poor foul drawing teams - attempting <=18 free throws/game over the last 2 seasons.

899Nebraska -900 Tcu
NEBRASKA is 10-1 ATS (8.9 Units) after a win by 6 points or less over the last 2 seasons.

 

[Cnotes53]

Saturday - Session 1
Kevin Rogers

East Region (Jacksonville, FL)

No. 6 Maryland vs. No. 3 LSU (CBS, 12:10 PM EST)

Opening Odds: LSU -2 ?, 145

Both LSU and Maryland escaped their first round matchups by a combined seven points against mid-major competition. The Tigers (27-6 SU, 19-13-1 ATS) finished atop the SEC standings at 16-2 with the only two losses coming to Arkansas by one point and an overtime setback to Florida. Unfortunately for LSU, the Tigers were one and done in the SEC tournament as they fell to the Gators for the second time this season, 76-73.

LSU still received a three-seed and didn?t have to travel far by going to Jacksonville to face Ivy League champion Yale. The Tigers jumped out to a 45-29 halftime lead and owned an 18-point advantage with 18:00 remaining in regulation. Yale stormed all the way back to cut the deficit to three in the final seconds before LSU drilled a pair of free throws to win, 79-74. The Tigers failed to cash as 6 ?-point favorites, as Skylar Mays led LSU with 19 points.

Maryland (23-10 SU, 16-16-1 ATS) stumbled to the finish in Big 10 play by splitting its final six games following a 10-4 start in the league. The Terrapins lasted only one game in the Big 10 tournament, but managed an invite to the Big Dance for the fourth time in five years. Maryland needed to rally from a 12-point first half deficit on Thursday to edge a tough Belmont squad, 79-77. The Terps erased a 40-34 halftime hole by scoring the first 14 points of the second half, but couldn?t grab the cover as 3 ?-point favorites.

Five Big 10 teams are taking the court on Saturday, including Maryland. Four clubs from the SEC were victorious on Thursday, as the Big 10 is guaranteed to have at least one team reach the Sweet 16 with Michigan State facing Minnesota on Saturday. The winner of the Spartans/Gophers matchup will face whoever escapes this early contest with a victory, meaning Michigan State or Maryland could potentially square off with a second straight conference foe assuming Maryland advances.

The Terps are flipped to an underdog here after being favored against Belmont as Maryland owns a 6-4 ATS mark when receiving points this season. LSU compiled a solid 14-4 ATS record since the start of January, but the Tigers are 0-2 ATS the last two games. The Tigers are seeking their first Sweet 16 appearance since reaching the Final Four in 2006.


Midwest Region (Jacksonville, FL)

No. 7 Wofford vs. No. 2 Kentucky (CBS, 2:40 PM EST)

Opening Odds: Kentucky -5 ?, 138 ?

The second SEC team to take the court in the round of 32 also did not win the conference tournament, but has huge aspirations for Minneapolis. Kentucky (28-6 SU, 18-16 ATS) basically showed up in its first round matchup with Southland conference champion Abilene Christian and exited with a 79-44 rout to easily cash as 20-point favorites.

The Wildcats played without sophomore star P.J. Washington (14.8 ppg), who sat out with a foot injury and is not expected to suit up on Saturday. Kentucky led by 26 at halftime and didn?t let off the gas pedal as the Wildcats shot 54% from the floor, while Keldon Johnson posted 25 points on 10-of-16 shooting. The Wildcats have never been bounced in the first round since John Calipari took over as head coach in 2009, while not escaping the opening weekend only once as they lost to Indiana in the 2016 second round.

Kentucky will have its hands full with Wofford (30-4 SU, 20-11 ATS), who pulled away late from Seton Hall on Thursday, 84-68. The Terriers have won 21 straight games and were last defeated on December 19 against another SEC squad ? Mississippi State. In the first round matchup against the Pirates, Wofford grabbed a 40-30 halftime lead before Seton Hall tied the game at 57-57 with 9:26 remaining. The Terriers led 67-66 with 4:20 to go, but Wofford opened things up with a 17-0 run to grab their first ever NCAA tournament victory.

Senior guard Fletcher Magee knocked down seven three-pointers for Wofford and scored 24 points as the Terriers not only cashed as three-point favorites, but improved to 12-1 ATS the last 13 games. The lone ATS defeat during this stretch came as a hefty 22 ?-point favorite in a 95-84 win over VMI last month. Wofford posted a 3-4 ATS record in the underdog role this season, including double-digit losses to North Carolina, Oklahoma, Kansas, and Mississippi State, while the biggest victory as a ?dog came at South Carolina in a 20-point blowout in November.

The cover in Thursday?s game was only the second in the last seven opportunities for UK, who own a 5-3-2 ATS record in the past 10 NCAA tournament contests since 2016. The last team from the Southern Conference to reach the Sweet 16 was Davidson back in 2008 behind Stephen Curry, as the Wildcats reached the Elite Eight before falling to Kansas.