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Udog

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Dunkel

Week 3


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Cnotes53

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Wednesday’s 6-pack:
Interesting college football spreads this week:
— USC (-5.5) @ Michigan
— Utah @ Oklahoma State (-2)
— Tennessee (-7) @ Oklahoma
— Kansas State (-6.5) @ BYU
— Florida (-6) @ Mississippi State
— Arkansas @ Auburn (-3)

Quote of the Day
“I’ve kind of been in every scenario. I’ve come up as a rookie, I’ve had some success. I’ve been a veteran who’s been more of a leader, and I’ve kind of been a guy who’s struggled with injuries and seen his play decline. I’ve gone through the whole gauntlet of what a player could go through. So I feel like I can understand where all the guys are at mentally and what they’re thinking.”
White Sox interim manager Grady Sizemore

Wednesday’s quiz
In the history of the NFL’s Chargers, who caught the most passes?

Tuesday’s quiz
Kirk Cousins played his college football at Michigan State.

Monday’s quiz
In the movie Moneyball, Philip Seymour Hoffman played A’s manager Art Howe.

***************************************

Wednesday’s Den: Mid-week musings…….

— Falcons 22, Eagles 21- Atlanta QB Kirk Cousins makes $45M a year; Monday night, he showed why he’s worth that much.
He drove the Falcons 70 yards in six plays, throwing the game-winning TD pass against the Eagles with 0:34 left in a 22-21 Atlanta win in Philadelphia Monday night.
Cousins was 20-29/241 passing, with two TD’s. Very clutch performance

— Miami Dolphins put QB Tua Tagovailoa (concussion) on IR; he is out until at least Week 8- they signed QB Tyler Huntley off of Baltimore’s practice squad.

— There are 16 games on the Week 3 NFL schedule; 10 of the 16 games are AFC-NFC matchups, which seems like a lot. NFL likes to hoard the glitzier divisional games until later in the season, or into their Amazon package.
There are also two Monday night games this week, which is unusual; no idea why, but Jaguars-Bills, Commanders-Bengals are on the docket Monday.

— Weeks 2-6, the Thursday night Amazon NFL game is a divisional rivalry; then in Week 7, it is Denver at New Orleans, Sean Payton’s return to Bourbon Street.

— Carolina Panthers are benching 2nd-year QB Bryce Young, will start veteran Andy Dalton this week in Las Vegas against the Raiders.
Young is 2-16 as an NFL starter; he needs to sit-watch-learn for a while. Carolina hasn’t led in the 4th quarter in any of its last 20 games, the 2nd-longest streak ever.
Dalton is 36 years old, is 83-78-2 as an NFL starter; he started once for Carolina last year. His glory days were with the Bengals, where he played for coach Marvin Lewis, who is now an assistant coach with the Raiders, Carolina’s opponent this week.

— Let’s review the 2023 trade between the Bears/Panthers:
Carolina got:
The #1 pick in the draft- they took QB Bryce Young
Chicago got:
WR DJ Moore
1st round pick in 2023 (OL Darnell Wright)
2nd round pick in 2023 (CB Tyrique Stevenson
2024 1st round pick (QB Caleb Williams)
2025 2nd round pick
Carolina Panthers are owned by hedge fund trader David Tepper, the wealthiest owner in the NFL. Tepper sent the Panthers’ GM packing last year; we’ll see how fast they can clean up the mess that guy left behind.

— Not only are the Tennessee Titans off to an 0-2 start, they’re first team since 2012 to have a punt blocked in each of their first two games. Tennessee is also minus-4 in turnovers; they’ve been outscored 38-7 in the second half of their games.

Famous birthdays, September 18th
Frankie Avalon, 84
Billy Gambrell, 83
Billy Sims, 69
Ryne Sandberg, 65
Holly Robinson Peete, 60
Toni Kukoc, 56
Jason Sudeikis, 49
Kevin Dotson, 28
Andre Pallante, 26

— From 2005-23, Pitt Panthers trailed 72 games by 10+ points in the 4th quarter; they lost all 72 of those games.
So far this season, Pitt trailed both Cincinnati/West Virginia by 10+ points in the 4th quarter, but won both games, behind QB Eli Holstein, whose thrown for 939 yards in three games.

— In Week 1, Cincinnati was the most popular pick in the Circa survivor pool in Las Vegas; they lost. 4,895 of the 14,206 people in the pool got KO’d when the Bengals lost
In Week 2, Baltimore was the most popular pick; they lost too. 2,304 people got knocked out when the Ravens lost. After two weeks, half the people are out of the pool already.
Handicapping the NFL is difficult; underdogs were 8-7 SU/10-4-1 ATS in Week 2.

— Packers at Tennessee game this week has an unexpected interesting subplot; QB Mailk Willis was a 3rd round pick by the Titans in the 2022 draft, out of Liberty (he had been a backup at Auburn before that).
Willis played in 11 games for the Titans, starting three (1-2); he completed 53% of his passes, with no TD’s, 3 INT’s. He ran the ball 32 times for 144 yards and a TD.
Last month, Willis was traded to Green Bay for a 7th round draft pick; 27 days after the trade, he is starting against his old team. Should be interesting.

— Kansas City Chiefs are bringing back RB Kareem Hunt; he spent the last five years with the Browns, after running for 1,327/824 yards in his first two NFL seasons, with the Chiefs. With Isiah Pacheco out injured for a while, Chiefs needed another RB.

— Astros 4, Padres 3
Jose Altuve fouled a ball off his toe, but the umpire called the ball fair and Altuve was out. He took his shoe/sock off to show the umpire that his toe was hurt— he got ejected.
Josh Hader got four outs for Houston; he never pitched more than an inning for San Diego.
This was San Diego’s 52nd sellout this season.

— Reds 6, Braves 5
Atlanta led 5-1 in 4th inning, 5-2 in 6th inning.
Reds used seven pitchers to get 27 outs.

— Marlins 11, Dodgers 9
Jesus Sanchez was 5-5 with three RBI.
Shohei Ohtani hit his 48th home run.
Dodgers lead in NL West is down to 3.5 games.

— A’s 4, Cubs 3
Shea Langeliers homered twice, has 28 for the season.
A’s were 50-112 last year; they’re 66-86 this year.

— Tigers 3, Royals 1 (10)
Detroit is 24-10 in its last 34 games.
Royals were 56-106 last year; they’re 82-70 this year.

— Rockies 8, Diamondbacks 2
Ezequiel Tovar was 3-5, with two runs, 2 RBI
Arizona lost four of its last five games.

— If the baseball playoffs starter today (they don’t):
NL: Phillies, Brewers, Dodgers. Wild Cards: Padres-Diamonfbacks-Mets
AL: New York, Guardians, Houston. Wild Cards: Orioles-Royals-Twins
Mets lead Atlanta by two games for the last NL playoff spot.
Twins lead Detroit by 1.5 games for the last AL playoff spot.
 

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Armadillo's Write-up

Week 2

Sunday’s games
Chargers
@ Steelers (-2)
Chargers (2-0)
Chargers won first two games, allowing one TD on 23 drives.
Chargers outscored their opponents 22-6 in second half.
Since 2019, Bolts are 14-16-5 ATS coming off a win.
Team total: over 2-0
Opponents’ team total: under 2-0


Since 2019, Chargers are 8-9-2 ATS as road underdogs.
Chargers outrushed first two opponents, 395-161.
Since 2019, Chargers are 8-25-7 ATS in games with spread of 3 or less points.
QB Herbert is 32-33 as an NFL starter.
Under is 2-0 in their first two games.


Steelers (2-0)
Steelers won first two games, allowing one TD on 18 drives.
Pittsburgh is +5 in turnovers in its first two games.
Team total: under 2-0
Opponents’ team total: under 2-0


Steelers have only one TD on 21 drives (8 field goals).
QB Fields is 12-28 as an NFL starter (2-0 with Steelers).
Pittsburgh is 10-6-1 in its last 17 games coming off a win.
Steelers are 13-6-1 ATS in last 20 games with spread of 3 or less points.
Steelers outrushed first two opponents, 278-153.


Teams split their last six meetings.
Chargers are 2-2 SU/3-1 ATS in last four visits to Pittsburgh.
Over is 4-2 in last six series games.

Bears
@ Colts (-1.5)
Bears (1-1)
Bears split first two games, scoring one offensive TD on 21 drives.
Chicago was outgained 554-353 in those games.
Rookie QB Williams averaged 3.0/3.0 yards/pass in his two games.
Team total: under 1-0-1
Opponents’ team total: under 2-0


Bears are 10-15-1 ATS in last 26 games as road underdogs.
Chicago has converted 8-30 third down plays.
Under Eberflus, Bears are 6-5-1 ATS vs AFC opponents.
Chicago is 4-7-2 ATS in last 13 games with spread of 3 or less points.
Bears have been outscored 33-13 in first half of games.


Colts (0-2)
Colts lost their first two games by total of eight points.
Indy have completed only 26-53 passes, but for 16 yards/reception.
Colts have been outscored 22-7 in first half of games.
Team total: over 1-1
Opponents’ team total: over 1-1


Indy is 17-13-1 ATS in last 31 games coming off a loss.
2nd-year QB Richardson is 2-4 as an NFL starter.
Colts are 9-11-1 ATS in last 21 games as a home favorite.
Under Steichen, Colts are 8-5 ATS in games with spread of 3 or less points.
First two games, Indy was outgained by 79.5 yards/game.


Colts won four of last six series games.
Teams split their last two meetings in Indianapolis.
Colts (-7) beat Chicago 29-17 in Super Bowl in 2006.
Over is 5-2 in last seven meetings.


Texans (-2.5) @ Vikings
Texans (2-0)
Texans won first two games, by total of eight points.
Houston outgained its opponents by 114/105 yards.
Team total: over 1-1
Opponents’ team total: over 1-1


Since 2016, Texans are 2-8-2 ATS as road favorites.
Houston is 4-8 ATS in last 12 games coming off a win.
2nd-year QB Stroud is 12-7 as an NFL starter.
Texans are 13-11-2 ATS in last 26 games with spread of 3 or less points.
Houston is 5-12-1 ATS in last 18 games vs NFC opponents.


Vikings (2-0)
Minnesota won first two games, giving up two TD’s on 21 drives.
Vikings outscored first two opponents 27-10 in first half.
Team total: over 2-0
Opponents’ team total: under 2-0


QB Darnold is 23-35 as an NFL starter, 2-0 with Vikings.
Vikings are 6-1-1 ATS in last eight games coming off a win.
Minnesota is 5-6 ATS in last 11 games as a home underdog.
Vikings are 12-10-3 ATS in last 25 games with spread of 3 or less points.
Under is 6-2-1 in their last nine home games.


Vikings won/covered all five meetings.
Texans lost 31-13/28-21 in two visits to Minnesota.
Over is 5-2 in series games.


Giants @ Browns (-6.5)
Giants (0-2)
Giants lost first two games, scoring three TD’s on 18 drives.
Giants didn’t allow a TD last week, but gave up seven FG’s.
Team total: under 2-0
Opponents’ team total: over 1-1


In their two games, Giants were outgained by 72-121 yards.
Under Daboll, Giants are 12-6 ATS coming off a loss.
Under Daboll, Giants are 7-2-1 ATS vs AFC opponents.
QB Jones is 23-39-1 as an NFL starter.
Giants have been outscored 26-9 in second half of games.


Browns (1-1)
Cleveland split its first two games, scoring 17-18 points.
Browns are 4-29 on 3rd down so far, 6-8 on 4th down.
Team total: under 2-0
Opponents’ team total: over 1-1


Browns were 6-0 ATS as home favorites LY (7-12-1 from 2020-22)
QB Watson is 38-32 as an NFL starter, 9-5 with Browns.
Cleveland is 9-15-1 ATS in last 25 games coming off a win.
Cleveland is 13-5-1 ATS in last 19 games vs NFC teams.
Over is 3-0 in Browns’ last three road openers.


Giants won four of six series games.
Giants won two of last three visits to Cleveland.
Under is 4-2 in series games.


Eagles @ Saints (-2.5)
Eagles (1-1)
Short week/travel for Eagles after their Monday night loss.
Eagles’ first two games were decided by total of six points.
Team total: over 1-1
Opponents’ team total: over 2-0


First two games, Philly gave up 163/152 yards rushing.
Under Sirianni, Eagles are 5-9 ATS as an underdog.
QB Hurts is 37-21 as an NFL starter.
Under Sirianni, Eagles are 5-9 ATS coming off a loss.
Opponents have converted only 5-20 third down plays.


Saints (2-0)
Saints won their first two games, scoring 47-44 points.
New Orleans has 11 touchdowns on 20 drives.
Team total: over 2-0
Opponents’ team total: under 2-0


First two games, Saints averaged 8.3/14.2 yards/pass.
First two games, Saints ran ball for 180/190 yards.
Last 3+ years, New Orleans is 8-14-2 ATS coming off a win.
QB Carr is 74-88 as an NFL starter.
Under is 16-7 in their last 23 road games.


Teams split their last six meetings.
Eagles’ last visit to New Orleans was in 2018.
Eagles lost last three visits here; their last win in NO was 2007.
Over is 8-4 in last 12 series games.


Broncos @ Buccaneers (-6.5)
Broncos (0-2)
Denver lost first two games, by 6-7 points.
Rookie QB Nix averaged 3.3/6.2 yards/pass attempt in his first 2 NFL starts.
Team total: over 1-1
Opponents’ team total: over 1-1


Denver is 8-10 ATS in last 18 games as a road underdog.
Denver is 4-7 ATS in last 11 games vs NFC opponents.
First two games, Broncos were outrushed, 287-163
Broncos are 13-16-1 ATS in last 30 games coming off a loss.
Under is 15-10 in their last 25 road games.


Buccaneers (2-0)
Tampa Bay won its first two games, scoring six TD’s on 18 drives.
Bucs are 11-23 on third down in two games.
Team total: over 1-1
Opponents’ team total: over 1-1


Bucs are 4-1-1 ATS in las tis games as a home favorite.
QB Mayfield is 44-48 as an NFL starter, 12-9 with Buccaneers.
Tampa Bay is 10-8-1 in last 19 games vs AFC opponents.
Last three years, under is 16-9 in Tampa Bay road games.
Bucs won in Detroit LW, despite being outgained 463-216.


Denver won four of last five meetings.
Broncos won 27-7/16-13 in last two visits to Tampa.
Under is 4-1 in last five series games.


Packers @ Titans (-3)
Packers (1-1)
QB Willis was 12-14/144 in his first start for Packers LW.
Willis was 1-2 as a starter for Tennessee in 2022.
Titans traded Willis to Green Bay August 26.
Team total: over 1-1
Opponents’ team total: over 1-1


Green Bay is 20-9 ATS in last 29 games as an underdog.
First two games, Packers ran ball for 163/261 yards.
Under is 16-9 in Green Bay’s last 25 true road games.
Former Boston College HC Hafley is Green Bay’s new DC.
First two games, opponents are 6-23 on third down.


Titans (0-2)
Titans have been outscored 38-7 in second half of games.
Tennessee had a punt blocked in both games.
Titans are minus-4 in turnovers, plus the two blocked punts.
Team total: under 2-0
Opponents’ team total: over 1-0-1


Tennessee is 13-15 ATS in its last 28 games as a home favorite.
Titans outgained both its opponents, by 101-35 yards.
Tennessee is 15-12-1 ATS in last 28 games vs NFC opponents.
QB Levis is 3-8 as an NFL starter.
Titans have an all-new coaching staff.


Titans won five of last seven series games.
Packers are 0-3 SU/1-2 ATS in last three visits to Tennessee.
Over is 6-1 in last seven meetings.


Panthers @ Raiders (-5)
Panthers (0-2)
Carolina is switching QB’s, from 2nd year QB Young to veteran Dalton
Dalton is 83-82-2 as an NFL starter, mostly with Cincinnati.
Former Bengals HC Marvin Lewis is a Raiders assistant.
Team total: under 2-0
Opponents’ team total: over 2-0


Dalton started one game for the Panthers last year.
Carolina lost first two games this year, 47-10/26-3.
Panthers are 1-8-1 ATS in last 10 games as a road underdog.
Last 3+ years, Carolina is 5-11 ATS vs AFC opponents.
Panthers are 2-22 on third down, opponents 16-29.


Raiders (1-1)
Raiders (+9) scored on 5 of last 6 drives, upset Ravens 26-23 LW.
Las Vegas was 6-2 ATS LY in game following their wins.
Raiders have converted only 9-26 third down plays.
Last two years, Raiders are 9-3 ATS as a home favorite.
Team total: over 1-1
Opponents’ team total: over 1-1


Raiders gave up 176/151 rushing yards in their two games.
First two games, Las Vegas was outrushed by 71.5 yards/game.
Las Vegas is 3-6 ATS in its last nine home openers.
Since start of 2020, Raiders are minus-32 in turnovers in 69 games.
QB Minshew is 16-23 as an NFL starter; Raiders are his 4th team.


Raiders won five of last seven meetings.
Raiders’ last four series wins were all by 4 or fewer points.
Carolina is 1-2 SU/2-1 ATS in last three road series games.


Dolphins @ Seahawks (-5.5)
Dolphins (1-1)
Backup QB Thompson replaces injured Tagvailova (concussion)
Thompson is 1-1 as an NFL starter; those games were in 2022.
Under McDaniel, Miami is 4-5 ATS as a road underdog.
Team total: under 2-0
Opponents’ team total: over 1-1


Dolphins are 7-2 ATS in last nine road openers.
Miami is 11-8 ATS in last 19 games vs NFC opponents.
Dolphins have only three TD’s on 21 drives this year.
Miami has been outscored 41-17 in first half of games.


Seahawks (2-0)
Seattle won its first two games, by 6-3 points.
Seahawks are 5-11-1 ATS last 17 games as home favorites.
Team total: over 2-0
Opponents’ team total: over 2-0


QB Smith is 32-37 as an NFL starter, 20-18 with Seattle.
Seahawks held first two opponents to 3.0/4.2 yards/pass attempt.
Seahawks are 11-19-2 in last 32 games coming off a win.
Seattle is 11-7-3 ATS last 21 games vs AFC opponents.


Teams split their last six meetings.
Dolphins are 1-2 SU/3-0 ATS in last three visits to Seattle.
Under is 3-1 in last four series games.


Lions (-3) @ Cardinals
Lions (1-1)
Lions split first two games, decided by total of 7 points.
Last week, Detroit was in red zone seven times, scored only 16 points.
Team total: under 2-0
Opponents’ team total: under 2-0


Lions are 13-26 on third down, opponents 7-22.
Goff is 27-25-1 as Detroit’s QB (was 44-30 with Rams)
Detroit is 5-3 ATS in last eight road openers.
Over is 7-2 in their last nine road openers.


Cardinals (1-1)
Arizona split its first two games, scoring 28-41 points.
Cardinals have 7 touchdowns on 17 drives.
Team total: over 2-0
Opponents’ team total: over 1-1


QB Murray is 29-38-1 SU as an NFL starter.
Cardinals are 6-3 ATS in last nine games as a home dog.
In two games, Arizona is 14-24 on third down.
Arizona is 2-5 ATS in last seven games coming off a win.


Detroit is 4-0-1 SU in last five series games.
Lions are 2-8 ATS in last ten visits to Arizona.
Under is 3-1 in last four meetings.


Ravens @ Cowboys (-1.5)
Ravens (0-2)
Baltimore lost its first two games, by 7-3 points.
Ravens are 0-2 for the first time since 2015.
Ravens are 16-4 ATS in last 20 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
Team total: under 2-0
Opponents’ team total: over 2-0


Since 2017, Ravens are 15-5-2 ATS as a road underdog.
Over is 5-1 in Baltimore’s last six regular season games.
QB Jackson is 60-25 as an NFL starter.
Last 4+ years, Baltimore is 12-11 ATS coming off a loss.
Ravens are 11-7 ATS in last 18 road games.


Cowboys (1-1)
Cowboys lost 44-19 at home LW, giving up 14.2 yards/pass attempt.
Last three years, Dallas is 11-3 ATS coming off a loss.
Team total: over 2-0
Opponents’ team total:eek:ver 1-1


Dallas is 16-8 ATS in last 24 games as a home favorite.
QB Prescott is 76-47 as an NFL starter.
Dallas is 7-5 ATS in last 12 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
Cowboys are 7-4 ATS in last 11 games vs AFC opponents.
Over is 32-17 in last 49 Dallas home games.


Baltimore won five of last six series games.
Teams split their last two meetings in Dallas.
Over is 4-0-1 in last five series games.


49ers (-7) @ Rams
49ers (1-1)
49ers split first two games, getting upset 23-17 at Minnesota LW.
49ers have converted only 8-23 third down plays.
Team total: over 1-1
Opponents’ team total: over 1-0-1


49ers are 9-6 ATS in last fifteen games off a loss.
QB Purdy is 22-6 as an NFL starter.
Since 2020, San Francisco is 15-11-1 ATS as a road favorite.
Last five years, 49ers are 10-4-1 ATS in NFC West road games.


Rams (0-2)
Rams have pretty severe injury problems all over the roster.
Arizona outgained them 489-245 in last week’s 41-10 loss.
Under McVay, Rams are 23-17-1 ATS coming off a loss.
Team total: under 2-0
Opponents’ team total: over 1-1


Rams have been outrushed 394-136 in two games.
Rams are 7-23 on third down, opponents 13-32.
LA is 3-5-1 ATS in its last nine NFC West home games.
Rams lost last two home openers, 31-10/30-23.
QB Stafford is 28-20 as Rams’ QB (was 74-93-1 with Detroit).


49ers are 9-2 SU/8-2-1 ATS in last ten series games.
49ers are 5-1 SU/5-0-1 ATS in last six visits to LA.
Over is 4-2 in last six meetings.


Chiefs (-4).@ Falcons
Chiefs (2-0)
Chiefs pulled out pair of close home wins, 27-20/26-25.
Kansas City won both games despite being minus-4 in turnovers.
Team total: under 2-0
Opponents’ team total: over 2-0


Last 4+ years, KC is 13-16-1 ATS as a road favorite.
QB Mahomes is 91-25 as an NFL starter.
Chiefs are 10-5 ATS in last 15 regular season games vs NFC teams.
Last six years, Chiefs are 6-0 SU/5-1 ATS in road openers.
Over is 16-9 in their last 25 road games.


Falcons (1-1)
Short week for Atlanta after their dramatic win late Monday night.
Falcons are 4-18 on third down, opponents 14-30.
Team total: over 1-1
Opponents’ team total: under 2-0


Atlanta scored five of last six times they had ball Monday night.
Last two years, Falcons were 4-0-1 ATS as a home underdog.
New QB Cousins is 78-71-2 as an NFL starter.
Raheem Morris is 22-39 as an NFL head coach.


Kansas City won last two meetings, 17-14/29-28.
Chiefs are 2-1 SU/ATS in last three visits to Atlanta.
Over is 5-1 in last six meetings.


Monday’s games
Jaguars
@ Bills (-5)
Jaguars (0-2)
Jaguars lost first two games, scoring three TD’s on 20 drives.
In two games, Jaguars are 5-19 on third down.
Team total: under 2-0
Opponents’ team total: under 2-0


Jacksonville’s two losses are by 3-5 points.
First two games, Lawrence averaged only 5.8/5.8 yards/pass attempt.
QB Lawrence is 21-33 as an NFL starter.
Under Pederson, Jaguars are 10-9 ATS as an underdog.


Bills (2-0)
Bills won their first two games, scoring 34-31 points.
Buffalo outscored first two opponents 31-11 in second half.
Team total: over 2-0
Opponents’ team total: over 1-1


Buffalo is 4-6 ATS in last 10 games as a home favorite.
Bills are 24-18-2 ATS in last 44 games coming off a win
QB Allen is 70-35 as NFL starter.
Bills have scored 65 points despite being 6-18 on third down.


Jaguars won three of last four series games.
Jacksonville is 1-4 SU/2-3 ATS in last five visits to Buffalo.
Under is 3-1 in last four meetings.


Commanders @ Bengals (-8)
Commanders (1-1)
Washington split first two games with rookie QB Daniels starting.
Commanders won 21-18 LW; they kicked seven FG’s on seven drives.
Team total: over 1-1
Opponents’ team total: over 1-1


Commanders are 6-3 ATS last nine games as a road underdog.
Washington ran for 215 yards LW, converted 7-14 third down plays.
Washington is 6-4 ATS in last 10 games vs AFC opponents.
Commanders are 16-9-1 ATS in last 26 games coming off a win.


Bengals (0-2)
Bengals are 0-2 for the third year in a row.
Bengals lost first two games by total of seven points.
Team total: over 1-1
Opponents’ team total: under 1-0-1


Bengals are 9-4-2 ATS in last 15 games as a home favorite.
QB Burrow is 34-26-1 as an NFL starter.
Last 4+ years, Cincinnati is 17-11-1 ATS coming off a loss.
WR Chase, in a contract dispute, has caught 10 balls for only 97 yards.
Opponents have converted only 7-23 third down plays.


Bengals are 3-1-1 SU in last five meetings.
Washington is 0-1-1 SU/1-1 ATS in last two visits to Cincinnati.
Under is 3-2 in last five series games.
 
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Thursday’s 6-pack:
Interesting NFL spreads this week:
— Dolphins @ Seattle (-4)
— Ravens (-1) @ Dallas
— Lions (-3) @ Arizona
— Chiefs (-3.5) @ Atlanta
— Jaguars @ Buffalo (-5)
— Commanders @ Cincinnati (-7.5)

Quote of the Day
“Yeah, I’m interested in coaching. My dad was a college coach, I was a college coach at Pitt, my wife was a cheerleader at Tennessee when I met her. Hell yeah, I’m interested in coaching. I know I can help a team, I know I can help young players get better, and I know I can hire a good staff, and that’s the only thing I can guarantee. But yeah, I’m very interested in coaching at any level, period.”
Former NFL coach Jon Gruden

Thursday’s quiz
Washington Nationals won the World Series five years ago; who led the Nationals in RBI that year?

Wednesday’s quiz
In the history of the NFL’s Chargers, Antonio Gates caught the most passes (955); Keenan Allen caught 904 passes.

Tuesday’s quiz
Kirk Cousins played his college football at Michigan State.

******************************************************

Thursday’s Den: Doing some thinking out loud……..

— Little bit of a strange news day; ESPN’s NBA insider Adrian Wojnarowski quit the network, and will become the general manager of the men’s basketball program at St Bonaventure, his alma mater.
“I am retiring from a dream job at ESPN and am so incredibly grateful for my time and experiences with the Worldwide Leader.” Wojnarowski said.
General managers have become more common in college basketball in recent years, as the transfer portal has made wholesale roster turnover a bigger part of the sport.
St Bonaventure is in Olean, NY, on the state’s southern tier, kind of in the middle of nowhere. Recruiting really good basketball players to go there ain’t easy. Bonnies have been to the NCAA tournament three times in the last 20 years, going 0-3 in those games.

— One of the best college football games this weekend is Tennessee at Oklahoma, a game filled with subplots.
In 2000, QB Josh Heupel led Oklahoma to a national title; Sooners haven’t won a national title since then. Heupel is now Tennessee’s coach.
In 2011, Heupel became Oklahoma’s offensive coordinator, and over the next four years, the Sooners averaged 475 yards per game, but they fired him after a 40-6 bowl loss to Clemson. It was a controversial dismissal; firing alums can be frowned upon.
Saturday, Heupel will be back in Norman for the first time since they fired him; his Vols are 3-0, winning 51-10/71-0 in their two games vs I-A opponents.
As if all that isn’t enough, this is also Oklahoma’s first conference game since joining the SEC. Sooners are also 3-0, giving up a total of 34 points in the three games.
Should be interesting.

— Milwaukee Brewers are first team to clinch a playoff spot; they’ve won NL Central the last two years, will be in the playoffs for sixth time in seven years.

— You see all these TV commercials asking for money “For only $19 a month……..”
These commercials are always on TV………
— abandoned pets
— symbolically adopting an elephant
— disadvantaged kids
— American Civil Liberties Union
Whats the deal with $19 a month? Why not $29 or $34/month?
Inquiring minds want to know……..

— Under was 21-11 in NFL team totals in Week 2, after over was 16-13-3 in Week 1.
Underdogs were 8-7 SU in Week 2 NFL games, 10-4-1 ATS.

— Only two baseball teams ever have made the World Series after giving up more runs than they scored in the regular season:
1987 Minnesota Twins
2023 Arizona Diamondbacks

Famous birthdays, September 19th
David Ray, 80
Nat Moore, 73
Dan Hampton, 67
Jim Abbott, 57
Raja Bell, 48
John Jaso, 41
George Springer, 35
CJ McCollum, 33
Dejounte Murray, 28
Today would’ve been Adam West’s 96th birthday; the star of Batman, the TV series.

— Jermaine Dye was a good ballplayer, played OF for the A’s in the Moneyball era; he had a career OPS of .826, once broke his leg fouling a pitch off his shin.
These days, Jermaine Dye’s son is a cornerback on the Kansas Jayhawks’ football team.
Kansas is playing its non-conference home games in a 25,000-seat soccer stadium; their conference home games will be at Arrowhead Stadium, home of the Chiefs. Jayhawks are-havng their football stadium refurbished this year.

— Billy Joe Hobert was an NFL QB for five years for three teams, starting 17 games, mostly with the Saints.
These days, Hobert’s son is a receiver for Texas State, which has a pretty good team.

— When the Giants scored a TD on their first drive at Washington Sunday, it was their first opening drive TD in their last 27 games, which was the longest brought in the NFL.

— Movie of the Day: Jerry and Marge Go Large (2022)- Based on the true story about an older married couple Jerry and Marge Selbee, who win the lottery and use the money to revive their small town. Turns out that Jerry was really smart, and figured out how to beat the lottery.
Bryan Cranston, Annette Bening are the couple. Michael McKean is also in the movie; he was in the old TV series Laverne & Shirley— his wife’s name in this movie is Shirley.
This was an interesting movie to watch, especially because it is a true story.

— A’s 5, Cubs 3
Oakland’s win clinched the NL Central for the Brewers.
Tyler Soderstrom homered, scored twice, had 2 RBI

— Guardians 5, Twins 4 (10)
Cleveland scored three runs in bottom of 10th.
Guardians’ magic number to clinch a playoff spot is 1.
Cleveland has 41 comeback wins this year, most in MLB.

— Giants 5, Orioles 3
Baltimore is 3-9 in its last 12 games; they’ve scored nine runs in last five games.

— Diamondbacks 9, Rockies 4
Corbin Carroll homered twice.
Eduardo Rodriguez struck out 11 guys in 6.1 IP.

— Bronx 2, Seattle 1 (10)
New York clinches a playoff spot.

— If the baseball playoffs starter today (they don’t):
NL: Phillies, Brewers, Dodgers. Wild Cards: Padres-Diamondbacks-Mets
AL: New York, Guardians, Houston. Wild Cards: Orioles-Royals-Twins
Mets/Arizona lead Atlanta by two games for the last two NL playoff spots.
Twins lead Detroit by half a game for the last AL playoff spot.
 
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NFL BEST BETS SEPTEMBER !

09/19/2024..............................1 - 1 - 0..............................50.00%..........................- 0.50
09/16/2024..............................1 - 1 - 0..............................50.00%...........................- 0.50
09/15/2024............................15 - 4 - 2...............................78.94%..........................+ 53.00
09/12/2024..............................1 - 1 - 0..............................50.00%...........................- 0.50
09/09/2024..............................0 - 2 - 0..............................00.00%...........................- 11.00
09/08/2024.............................5 - 11 - 0.............................31.25%............................- 41.00
09/06/2024................................0 - 2................................00.00%............................- 11.00
09/05/2024................................0 - 2.................................00.00%...........................- 11.00

TOTALS..................................23 - 24 - 2............................48.93%............................- 22.50
 

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Friday’s 6-pack:
Interesting NFL spreads this week:
— Chargers @ Pittsburgh (-1.5)
— Texans (-2) @ Minnesota
— Eagles @ New Orleans (-2.5)
— Broncos @ Tampa Bay (-6.5)
— Packers @ Tennessee (-3)
— NJ Giants @ Cleveland (-6.5)

Quote of the Day
“Not something I was necessarily expecting. Obviously, not something that was great to hear, but I respect Coach [Dave] Canales, I respect the organization. They made the decision. … Right now, that’s the situation that it is. I have to do everything to help the team whatever way I can.”
Carolina Panthers’ QB Bryce Young, after being benched this week

Friday’s quiz
In the history of the New York Mets, who has hit the most home runs?

Thursday’s quiz
Washington Nationals won the World Series five years ago; Anthony Rendon led the Nationals in RBI that year, with 126. In five years since then, Rendon has knocked in a total of 125 runs.

Wednesday’s quiz
In the history of the NFL’s Chargers, Antonio Gates caught the most passes (955); Keenan Allen caught 904 passes.

*********************************************

Friday’s Den: Clearing out a cluttered mind……..

Jets 24, Patriots 3
New England is 30-41 since Tom Brady left town.
Patriots averaged 1.3 yards/pass attempt.
Patriots were 2-11 on third down, Jets 10-15.
New England is 10-13 ATS last 23 games as a road underdog.
Jets ran 70 plays for 400 yards; Patriots 48 plays for 139 yards.
In three games, Jets are 21-37 on third down.
Under is 12-6 in their last 18 home games.
Rodgers is 161-86-1 as an NFL starter.

— South Alabama 48, Appalachian State 14
Jaguars ran ball for 320 yards (7.4 yards/rush)
USA was 7-11 on third down, App State 4-13.
App State was favored by 8.5 points.
Under Clark, App State is 9-16 ATS as a home favorite.

— Dodgers 20, Marlins 4
Shohei Ohtani went 6-6 in this game.
Shohei Ohtani hit three HR’s in this game.
Shohei Ohtani had two doubles in this game.
Shohei Ohtani had 10 RBI in this game.
Ohtani became first player ever with 50+ homers, 50+ stolen bases in a season.

— Guardians 3, Twins 2 (10)
Cleveland clinches a playoff spot with this win.
Andres Gimenez had the walk-off hit for the Guardians.

— Blue Jays 5, Rangers 0
Kevin Gausman tossed five no-hit IP, then left with a bad back.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr hit two home runs.

— Astros 3, Angels 1
Houston is 9-0 when Yusei Kikuchi starts on the mound.
Jon Singleton’s 2-run double in 8th inning was the game-winning hit.

— Washington Nationals won the World Series in 2019; Anthony Rendon led the Nationals in RBI that year, with 126. He then signed a 7-year, $245M deal with the Angels, and in the first five years of that deal, Rendon has knocked in a TOTAL of 125 runs.

Famous birthdays, September 20:
Sophia Loren, 90
Butch Byrd, 83
Dave Twardzik, 74
Gary Cole, 68
Dante Hall, 46
Kyle Anderson, 31

— Detroit Lions coach Dan Campbell recently sold his house and moved, after he and his family dealt with harassment from so-called fans late last season.
A buyer agreed to purchase Campbell’s old home within 24 hours of it being listed.

— Wednesday night in Seattle, Mariners trailed 2-1 in 10th inning, had Julio Rodriguez on third base with no outs, and Randy Arozarena at bat.
Arozarena struck out swinging, lost the grip on his bat and the bat headed straight towards Rodriguez, who spun out of the way of the bat and then took several more steps into foul territory — farther away from third base.
The catcher threw to third base and picked him off, and Seattle lost 2-1. Not good.

— Saturday in the Bronx, Gerrit Cole was pitching for New York; he drilled Rafael Devers in the first inning, then in the 4th inning, with the bases empty and one out, leading 1-0. he walked Devers intentionally. Why?
He walked a guy on purpose with the bases empty in the 4th inning; Boston wound up scoring three runs in that inning and won 7-1. Very strange.

— Buck Showalter has managed five teams in the major leagues; he managed the Mets last year. Two of the other four teams that fired Showalter won the World Series in the first year after he left, Bronx in 1996, Arizona in 2001.

— Last week in Knoxville, Tennessee obliterated Kent State 71-0; the game was 65-0 at halftime, but it wasn’t without some drama.
Up 30-0 in the first quarter, Tennessee recovered an onside kick, which seemed excessive. Why would you do that? Kent State got a hefty paycheck for showing up, but they were obviously not competitive. Kicking a dog when they’re down produces bad karma down the road.
Kent State was offered the chance to play the second half with a running clock; they turned that down. Golden Flashes lost to a I-AA team the week before, lost 55-24 at Pitt the week before that and they visit Penn State this week. Oy.

— The fan in Miami who caught Shohei Ohtani’s 50th home run declined to make a trade with a Dodgers and took the baseball home. Interesting decision; hard to believe they’ll keep the ball, which has to be worth a nice chunk of change.
Aaron Judge’s 62nd home run ball sold for $1.5M
Mark McGwire’s 70th home run ball sold for $3M
Albert Pujols’ 700th home run ball sold for $360,000.
 

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Saturday’s 6-pack:
— Phillies 12, Mets 2— Philly clinches a playoff spot.
— Twins 4, Boston 2 (12)- Twins lead Tigers by game for last playoff spot.
— Padres 3, White Sox 2 (10)- San Diego’s magic # to clinch playoff spot is 4.
— Dodgers 6, Rockies 4- Ohtani has 52 home runs, 52 stolen bases.
— Marlins 4, Braves 3- Atlanta trails Mets by 2 games for last playoff slot.
— Reds 8, Pirates 3- Tyler Stephenson scored 3 runs, knocked in 5 more.

Quote of the Day
“You are literally too stupid to insult.”
Stu, in The Hangover

Saturday’s quiz
Where did Buffalo Bills’ QB Josh Allen play his college football?

Friday’s quiz
In the history of the New York Mets, Darryl Strawberry has hit the most home runs.

Thursday’s quiz
Washington Nationals won the World Series five years ago; Anthony Rendon led the Nationals in RBI that year, with 126. In five years since then, Rendon has knocked in a total of 125 runs.

*******************************************

Saturday’s Den: Quick notes for NFL teams…….

Quick note on all 30 NFL teams that haven’t played yet this week:

NFC teams
— Cardinals
Offense is doing well so far: 8 TD’s, 4 field goals on 17 drives.

— Falcons
Converted only 4 of 18 third down plays.

— Panthers
Outscored 50-3 in first half, converted 2-22 on third down.
Curious to see how they’ll play with Andy Dalton at QB this week.

— Bears
Outscored opponents 24-3 in second half. Only 8-30 on third down

— Cowboys
Opponents have been in red zone seven times, scored 44 points.

— Lions
Have been in red zone 11 times, scored only 35 points.

— Packers
Have run ball for 424 yards in two games; they’re +4 in turnovers.

— Rams
Have been outscored 34-6 in first half; they’re 7-23 on 3rd down, opponents 13-24.

— Vikings
Outscored opponents 27-10 in first half; threw ball for 8.0/8.6 yards/attempt

— Giants
Were outscored 26-9 in second half; outgained by 72/121 total yards.

— Famous birthdays, September 21st:
Doug Moe, 86
Artis Gilmore, 75
Bill Murray, 74
Sidney Moncrief, 67
Rob Morrow, 62
Cecil Fielder, 61
Faith Hill, 57
Luke Wilson, 53
Kevin Carter, 51
Bryce Drew, 50
Demarcus Robinson, 30
Yainer Diaz, 26

— Saints
Scored 11 TD’s on 26 drives, have outrushed foes, 370-126.

— Eagles
Started 15 drives 70+ yards from goal line, scored 46 points (very good)

— 49ers
Converted only 8-23 third down plays.

— Seahawks
Four trips to red zone: only one TD, three field goals.
They have four TD’s on plays of 23+ yards.

— Buccaneers
Opponents have been in red zone 10 times: only 3 TD’s, 5 field goals

— Commanders
Opponents scored seven TD’s on 15 drives.
Commanders have run ball for 353 yards in two games.

AFC teams
— Ravens
Are 0-2 for first time since 2015; outgained opponents by 99/123 yards.

— Bills
Won average starting field position by 15-10 yards.

— Bengals
Have been outrushed 319-144, are only 8-24 on third down.

— Movie of the Day: The Hangover (2009)- Three buddies wake up from a bachelor party in Las Vegas, with no memory of the previous night and with the bachelor missing. Chaos ensues.
Funny movie that had two sequels; Hangover II (a terrible movie set in Thailand instead of Las Vegas) and Hangover III, which was pretty funny.

— Browns
Averaged only 2.7/4.8 yards/pass attempt, converted only 4-29 on third down.

— Broncos
Scored one TD, have 13 3/outs on 24 drives.

— Texans
Five trips to red zone: three TD’s, two field goals.

— Colts
Opponents are 17-31 on third down; were outscored 22-7 in first half.

— Jaguars
Have converted only 5-19 third down plays.

— Chiefs
Have converted only 5-17 third down plays, have 5 turnovers (minus-4).

— Raiders
Have been out rushed 327-98 in two games.
Scored only one TD, three FG’s on 14 drives that started 70+ yards from goal line.

— Chargers
Outscored opponents 22-6 in second half.

— Dolphins
Six trips to red zone- only 2 TD’s, 2 field goals.

— Steelers
Teams have combined for 40 drives in two Steeler games; only 2 TD’s.

— Titans
Seven trips to red zone- only 2 TD’s, 2 field goals.
Turned ball over 5 times (minus-4), have had two punts blocked.
 
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