Cnotes53 2017 NBA Best Bets-Trends-News Thru Playoffs !

[Cnotes53]

NBA knowledge

Thursday?s NBA

Nets lost seven of their last eight games with the Hornets, but they covered their last five visits to Charlotte. Under is 5-2 in last seven series games. Brooklyn lost its last seven games; they?re 15-5 in last 20 games as road underdogs. Four of their last six rod games stayed under the total. Hornets lost four of their last five games; they?re 6-4 in last 10 games as home favorites. Three of their last four games stayed under.

Orlando/New York split their last 10 games; Knicks are 3-2 vs spread in last five visits to Magic Kingdom. Under is 7-3 in last ten series games. New York lost its last eight games; they?re 1-5 in last six tries as road underdogs. Eight of their last ten games stayed under. Orlando lost its last three games; they?re 1-7 as home favorites this season. Four of their last five games stayed under the total.

Cavaliers won five of last six games with Washington; road team won last five series games. Wizards covered three of last four visits to Cleveland. Three of last four series games went over. Wizards won seven of their last nine games; they?re 10-3 as road underdogs. Seven of their last ten games went over. Cleveland won/covered its last four games; they?re 7-17 as home favorites. Cavs? last four games went over.

76ers lost eight of last ten games with Chicago; they?re 1-4 vs spread in last five visits to the Windy City. Seven of last ten series games went over. Sixers won their last five games; they?re 4-4 vs spread as road favorites. Five of their last seven games stayed under. Bulls lost eight of their last ten games; they?re 10-9 as home underdogs. Seven of their last ten games went under the total.

Thunder won three of last four games with the Kings; they?re 2-3 vs spread in last five visits to Sacramento. Last three series games stayed under. Oklahoma City lost six of its last nine games; they?re 7-14 as road favorites. Last three Thunder games went over total. Sacramento lost five of its last seven games; they?re 2-10 in last dozen games as home underdogs. Three of their last four games went over.

Warriors won nine of last ten games with the Clippers but lost to LA in last meeting Jan 10; Clippers are 2-2 vs spread in last four visits to Oakland. Last six series games went over total. Clippers won seven of their last nine games; they?re 9-3 in last 12 games as road underdogs. Eight of their last nine games stayed under. Golden State split its last six games but won three in row at home. Warriors are 13-14-2 as home favorites. Over is 3-1 in their last four games.

 

[Cnotes53]

LeBron opposed to new playoff format
February 21, 2018

INDEPENDENCE, Ohio (AP) LeBron James has only followed an Eastern route to the NBA Finals.

He doesn't want to see that change.

While NBA Commissioner Adam Silver recently raised the possibility that a change in the playoff format - re-seeding the 16 teams regardless of conference affiliation - could be approaching, James would prefer if things stayed status quo.

''I would disagree with that,'' James said Wednesday as the remodeled Cavaliers practiced for the first time after the All-Star break. ''I think our league has been built the right way as far as when it comes to the postseason.''

The league has always had teams from the Eastern and Western Conferences compete separately in the postseason with the respective conference winners meeting in the Finals. At last weekend's All-Star festivities in Los Angeles, Silver advanced the discussion about a potential change in the playoff structure, offering two options that both included teams being re-seeded regardless of conference connection.

''You also would like to have a format where your two best teams are ultimately going to meet in the Finals,'' Silver said. ''You could have a situation where the top two teams in the league are meeting in the conference finals or somewhere else. So we're going to continue to look at that. It's still my hope that we're going to figure out ways.''

Any change would require a majority vote by league owners.

For James, who has been to seven straight Finals with Miami and Cleveland, altering the playoff format would be somewhat disrespectful.

''It just changes the landscape of the history of the game,'' he said. ''It's cool to mess around with the All-Star Game, we proved you can do that, but let's not get too crazy about the playoffs. You have Eastern Conference and you have Western Conference. You have Eastern Conference champions, you have guys from the Eastern Conference that win the big dance and sometimes you have it from the West as well.''

James loved the change in this year's All-Star game as he and Steph Curry were voted as captains by fans and got to choose their teams. James' team edged Curry's in one of the more competitive events in recent years.

But as for the Finals, James doesn't see a need for change. He noted that there has been conference imbalance before, but time usually evens the score.

''There's been dominant conferences throughout time,'' he said. ''In the `80s you had the Lakers who dominated the league at one point, then you had Boston that dominated the league. In the `90s, you had Chicago that dominated the league. San Antonio also had its run. We had our run in the East with Miami, Golden State is having their run.''

James said he never gets caught up in the East vs. West comparisons.

''For what? You go out and play,'' he said. ''I've been a part of the Eastern Conference my whole career and we've been very, very competitive. There's been years where we weren't as good. If I can think from once I got into the league, it's been us (Cleveland), I've done it three times, Detroit, Boston, Miami in `06, that's like seven championships out of 14 years.

''That's half, right? So what are we talking about?''

James was slightly off as the Western Conference has won eight of the past 14 titles.

 

[Cnotes53]

New Cavaliers ready for home debuts
February 21, 2018

INDEPENDENCE, Ohio (AP) Larry Nance Jr. has run into an unexpected snag since joining the Cavaliers.

''Trying to convince my mom that I'm not living at home,'' he said, smiling. ''We're out looking for rental properties and stuff like that and she's like, `Oh, our basement is pretty nice.' That's probably been the toughest thing.''

Nance's Ohio homecoming will become even more special Thursday when the former Lakers forward plays his first at Quicken Loans Arena with the Cavs, the same team his dad starred with from 1987-94

Life has been a whirlwind of late for Nance, who was obtained by Cleveland shortly before the Feb. 8 trading deadline along with guards Jordan Clarkson and George Hill and forward Rodney Hill - four players the Cavs feel can get them back to the NBA Finals.

Nance competed in last weekend's All-Star dunk contest, an event he turned into an unforgettable family affair by wearing his dad's Phoenix jersey and replicating the same dunk Larry Nance Sr. did while winning the inaugural dunk contest in 1984.

The younger Nance finished second to Utah's Donovan Mitchell, but that diminish memories he'll forever cherish.

''The dunk contest was a blast,'' Nance said. ''If anybody had to win, Don did awesome so I'm happy for him. At the same time those are moments that I don't know if any father and son has ever had. That's the coolest part of it all and I'm already having several pictures blown up to be framed and stuff like that.''

On Wednesday, Nance and the other new Cavs took part in their first practice at the team's facility since the trades. And while there was a lot for the foursome to cram in - photo sessions, media interviews - before Thursday's game against Washington, it was also a chance for a refresher course on what they learned before the All-Star break.

''Just like how I suspected, they forgot the plays,'' Cavs coach Tyronn Lue said with a laugh. ''So, we grabbed them early, tried it, and then we're going to grab them again after the shooting and just continue to keep going through the plays and a couple defensive coverages.''

There's a lot for the new Cavs to digest and it's vital they pick things up quickly.

Cleveland is 2-0 with its recent additions, getting impressive road wins at Boston and Oklahoma City. The Cavs played with a renewed energy and purpose in those two games with the performances giving the team a much needed jolt following weeks of turmoil.

Currently third in the Eastern Conference, the Cavs are heading into a brutal stretch of 17 games in 32 days, which will require Lue and his staff to do all they can to get the new players ready for the postseason.

''We'll have to use shootarounds as practice time to teach and for guys to get better,'' he said. ''Not a lot of off days now. When we play every other day, we take off, we're not going to be able to do that now, especially the new guys. Just got to be smart about it so guys get their rest, but also make sure we're teaching and letting guys come in so they'll be able to pick up what we're trying to do.''

In the meantime, Nance was looking forward to taking the court in Cleveland, where his father's retired No. 22 hangs from the rafters. There has been speculation that he might ask the Cavs to let him wear the number, but that's been put on hold.

''I'm 24 right now,'' he said. ''We will revisit it in the summer, but with everything that happened so fast I wasn't about to go to Cavs management say, `Hey what would you think about taking 22 down?' But I don't want to see it come down. If there is some way where I could even drop the `Jr.' off my jersey and wear the `Nance' No. 22 I'd love to keep it up there. I'd also love to wear 22, but I just don't want to see it come down.''

 

[Cnotes53]

Best obscure NBA betting trends through the first half of the season
Ashton Grewal

We looked past team ATS and Over/Under stats. We dug deeper to try to find some situational spot bets to follow or fade over the final two and a half months of the season.

Road Underdogs

Backing teams getting points on the road has been a profitable play since October. NBA road underdogs are 297-253-21 for the season and 224-179-15 over the last three months. That?s a 54 percent win rate on the season and 55.6 percent over the last 90 days. Only eight of the 30 teams own losing ATS records when catching points away from home.

The Charlotte Hornets were the biggest exception to this league trend. They went 5-11-4 ATS as road dogs. The Cleveland Cavaliers (8-2), Boston Celtics (7-2) and Brooklyn Nets (17-8-1) were the three best bets in this situation.

Cavaliers Under Spot Bet

The Cavs were the oldest team in the NBA before remodeling their roster at the trade deadline. They held up OK as far as wins and losses (5-5) when playing on the second night of a back-to-back set, but their games had a habit of playing Under the closing total. The Under is 9-1 in Cleveland?s 10 games playing with zero days of rest.

The trend might not carry forward with the younger legs on the roster, but it?s something worth monitoring. Cleveland opens the second half of its season with a game on Thursday at home against the Washington Wizards and then plays the following night on the road against the Memphis Grizzlies.

Worst First Half Bet

The Golden State Warriors routinely sleepwalk through the first halves of their games this season. Golden State is 19-38-2 against the spread on first-half lines. That?s just a 33.3 percent win rate for those unfortunate souls who regularly backed the defending champs in the first halves of games.

The Dubs' average point differential in the first 24 minutes of game time is just +2.3. The Houston Rockets lead the league with a +6.6 point differential in the first two quarters. The Warriors seem to come to life after half time; they lead the lead in point differential in second halves at +5.7.

Best First Half Bet

The Toronto Raptors are 36-20-1 ATS on the first half lines so far this campaign. The Dinos get off to fast starts but the chief reason for their first half ATS success boils down to their bench. Toronto owns the best bench net rating (points scored per 100 possessions minus points allowed per 100 possessions) at 8.1 and that number jumps to 14.1 in the second quarter alone.

The Raptors play their first game back on Friday at home against the Milwaukee Bucks.

Worst ATS Divisional Record

Division races don?t mean much on the standings page and no fan base is excited about lifting a banner to the rafters to celebrate a first-place finish in a division. That said, clubs do play against their divisional foes more than any other teams over the course of a season so odd trends do emerge from time-to-time.

The Oklahoma City Thunder are having no luck against their divisional rivals this season. OKC is 5-8 straight up and 2-11 against the spread versus the Northwest Division. The Minnesota Timberwolves won three of their four meetings and covered the spread each time. The Thunder have two games left against the Portland Trail Blazers and one game apiece against the Denver Nuggets and Utah Jazz.

Best Road Team

The Miami Heat are the best road bet in the league at 21-11 ATS and the worst home wager at 7-16-3. Miami averages 22.8 assists per game on the road and 20.6 in its home games. The Heat shoot 44.7 percent from the field in home games and 45.7 percent on the road, and they average one more free throw attempt per game away from home than they do in Miami.

The Heat play at New Orleans on Friday this week.

 

[Cnotes53]

NBA

Thursday, February 22

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Trend Report
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NEW YORK @ ORLANDO
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of New York's last 6 games when playing on the road against Orlando
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of New York's last 6 games on the road
Orlando is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Orlando's last 6 games when playing at home against New York

BROOKLYN @ CHARLOTTE
Brooklyn is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Charlotte
Brooklyn is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Charlotte
Charlotte is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing Brooklyn
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Charlotte's last 7 games at home

PHILADELPHIA @ CHICAGO
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 5 games when playing on the road against Chicago
Philadelphia is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Chicago's last 5 games when playing at home against Philadelphia
Chicago is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games when playing at home against Philadelphia

WASHINGTON @ CLEVELAND
Washington is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Washington is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Cleveland is 18-3 SU in its last 21 games at home
Cleveland is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Washington

OKLAHOMA CITY @ SACRAMENTO
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Oklahoma City's last 5 games when playing on the road against Sacramento
Oklahoma City is 18-5 SU in its last 23 games when playing Sacramento
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Sacramento's last 5 games when playing at home against Oklahoma City
Sacramento is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games

LA CLIPPERS @ GOLDEN STATE
The total has gone OVER in 5 of LA Clippers's last 5 games when playing Golden State
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of LA Clippers's last 9 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Golden State's last 5 games when playing LA Clippers
Golden State is 12-1 SU in its last 13 games when playing LA Clippers

 

[Cnotes53]

NBA
Long Sheet

Thursday, February 22

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BROOKLYN (19 - 40) at CHARLOTTE (24 - 33) - 2/22/2018, 7:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BROOKLYN is 28-44 ATS (-20.4 Units) after 3 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons.
BROOKLYN is 28-19 ATS (+7.1 Units) as an underdog this season.
BROOKLYN is 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) in road games when playing with 3 or more days rest since 1996.
BROOKLYN is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) against Southeast division opponents this season.
CHARLOTTE is 21-32 ATS (-14.2 Units) in all games this season.
CHARLOTTE is 5-19 ATS (-15.9 Units) against Atlantic division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
CHARLOTTE is 8-18 ATS (-11.8 Units) after a division game over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
BROOKLYN is 6-1 against the spread versus CHARLOTTE over the last 3 seasons
CHARLOTTE is 7-1 straight up against BROOKLYN over the last 3 seasons
5 of 8 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NEW YORK (23 - 36) at ORLANDO (18 - 39) - 2/22/2018, 7:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW YORK is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in February games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW YORK is 221-173 ATS (+30.7 Units) revenging a home loss vs opponent since 1996.
ORLANDO is 60-77 ATS (-24.7 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
ORLANDO is 8-19 ATS (-12.9 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
ORLANDO is 25-42 ATS (-21.2 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
ORLANDO is 8-20 ATS (-14.0 Units) after a division game over the last 2 seasons.
ORLANDO is 25-39 ATS (-17.9 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
ORLANDO is 21-35 ATS (-17.5 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
ORLANDO is 5-4 against the spread versus NEW YORK over the last 3 seasons
ORLANDO is 5-4 straight up against NEW YORK over the last 3 seasons
6 of 9 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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WASHINGTON (33 - 24) at CLEVELAND (34 - 22) - 2/22/2018, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 20-39 ATS (-22.9 Units) in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game since 1996.
WASHINGTON is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in road games against Central division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 18-37 ATS (-22.7 Units) in all games this season.
CLEVELAND is 7-16 ATS (-10.6 Units) when the total is greater than or equal to 220 this season.
CLEVELAND is 9-32 ATS (-26.2 Units) as a favorite this season.
CLEVELAND is 6-20 ATS (-16.0 Units) in home games this season.
CLEVELAND is 20-32 ATS (-15.2 Units) after a non-conference game over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 7-15 ATS (-9.5 Units) after scoring 115 points or more this season.
CLEVELAND is 7-15 ATS (-9.5 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
CLEVELAND is 5-4 against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
CLEVELAND is 6-3 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
5 of 9 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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PHILADELPHIA (30 - 25) at CHICAGO (20 - 37) - 2/22/2018, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHILADELPHIA is 80-56 ATS (+18.4 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
CHICAGO is 7-3 against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
CHICAGO is 8-2 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
7 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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OKLAHOMA CITY (33 - 26) at SACRAMENTO (18 - 39) - 2/22/2018, 10:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 24-34 ATS (-13.4 Units) in all games this season.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 18-32 ATS (-17.2 Units) as a favorite this season.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 31-52 ATS (-26.2 Units) in road games after scoring 115 points or more since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
SACRAMENTO is 6-3 against the spread versus OKLAHOMA CITY over the last 3 seasons
OKLAHOMA CITY is 5-4 straight up against SACRAMENTO over the last 3 seasons
5 of 9 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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LA CLIPPERS (30 - 26) at GOLDEN STATE (44 - 14) - 2/22/2018, 10:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA CLIPPERS are 213-268 ATS (-81.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season since 1996.
GOLDEN STATE is 98-71 ATS (+19.9 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game since 1996.
GOLDEN STATE is 58-32 ATS (+22.8 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season since 1996.
LA CLIPPERS are 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
GOLDEN STATE is 7-4 against the spread versus LA CLIPPERS over the last 3 seasons
GOLDEN STATE is 10-1 straight up against LA CLIPPERS over the last 3 seasons
8 of 11 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

 

[Cnotes53]

NBA
Dunkel

Thursday, February 22


Brooklyn @ Charlotte

Game 551-552
February 22, 2018 @ 7:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Brooklyn
111.025
Charlotte
117.198
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Charlotte
by 6
219
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Charlotte
by 8
213 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Brooklyn
(+8); Over

New York @ Orlando

Game 553-554
February 22, 2018 @ 7:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
New York
112.415
Orlando
114.328
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Orlando
by 2
217
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Orlando
by 4
211
Dunkel Pick:
New York
(+4); Over

Washington @ Cleveland

Game 555-556
February 22, 2018 @ 8:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Washington
117.623
Cleveland
126.714
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Cleveland
by 9
218
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Cleveland
by 5
222
Dunkel Pick:
Cleveland
(-5); Under

Philadelphia @ Chicago

Game 557-558
February 22, 2018 @ 8:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Philadelphia
123.102
Chicago
113.109
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Philadelphia
by 10
207
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Philadelphia
by 5
214 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Philadelphia
(-5); Under

Oklahoma City @ Sacramento

Game 559-560
February 22, 2018 @ 10:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Oklahoma City
117.366
Sacramento
113.409
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Oklahoma City
by 4
218
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Oklahoma City
by 7 1/2
212 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Sacramento
(+7 1/2); Over

LA Clippers @ Golden State

Game 561-562
February 22, 2018 @ 10:35 pm

Dunkel Rating:
LA Clippers
118.266
Golden State
125.785
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Golden State
by 7 1/2
237
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Golden State
by 11
232 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
LA Clippers
(+11); Over

 

[Cnotes53]

Hoop Trends - Thursday
February 22, 2018

ATS TREND OF THE DAY:

-- The Clippers are 0-11 ATS (-9.73 ppg) as a road dog with rest off a game as a dog where they scored 15+ points more than Vegas projected.

OU TREND OF THE DAY:

-- The Wizards are 12-0 OU (16.00 ppg) on the road off a win in a road game in which they shot over 50% from the field.

PLAYER TREND OF THE DAY:

-- The Wizards are 13-0 OU (15.15 ppg) as a dog after Bradley Beal played more than 40 minutes last game.

CHOICE TREND:

-- The Bulls are 0-11 OU (-14.91 ppg) at home off a game as a dog in which they had 5 or fewer offensive boards.

ACTIVE TRENDS:

-- The Magic are 10-0 ATS (8.75 ppg) coming off a loss last game.

-- The Wizards are 0-8 ATS (-9.44 ppg) off a game as a favorite in which Bradley Beal was the high scorer.

 

[Cnotes53]

Will Warriors' dominance come back?
February 22, 2018

The Golden State Warriors have never lost more than 15 games in a season under Steve Kerr.

They could reach that total in the first night after the All-Star break.

The Warriors who return Thursday night aren't the same ones who dominated the NBA for the last three seasons. The defending champions sputtered into their week off with four losses in their final eight games, falling into second place in the Western Conference behind Houston - ending a three-year run of taking the league's best record into the break.

At 44-14 and loaded with four All-Stars, the Warriors are still very good, but not as good they've been.

''This year we've had a pretty solid season, but feel that we can play a lot better,'' Stephen Curry said. ''So that's what we're trying to do this next 20 games before another championship run.''

Their performances against their first two opponents out of the break show how different things have been for these Warriors. The Los Angeles Clippers, who visit Golden State on Thursday, won in Oakland last month after losing the previous 12 meetings in the series.

And the Oklahoma City Thunder, Golden State's opponent Saturday in a nationally televised game, have defeated the Warriors by 17 and 20 points already this season. They can become the first team to beat Golden State three times in a season since San Antonio went 4-0 against the Warriors in 2013-14 - the season before Kerr's arrival.

Their spotty play thus far makes Curry appreciate their time at the top even more.

''We've kind of set a standard of excellence in the league,'' he said. ''That's pretty cool to think about sustaining that high level of play for so long.''

---

Some other things to watch when play resumes Thursday with six games:

RACE TO THE BOTTOM: While the NBA fined Dallas owner Mark Cuban $600,000 on Wednesday for his public comments about tanking, the Mavericks have plenty of company near the bottom of the standings. Phoenix has lost seven straight to share the worst record in the league with Atlanta at 18-41, and six other teams, including the Mavs, have 20 or fewer victories. The team who finishes last has the best chance to win the draft lottery, though if it's Brooklyn (19-40), that makes a winner out of Cleveland, which has the Nets' pick that belonged to Boston after acquiring it in the Kyrie Irving trade.

DOMINANT DAVIS: Anthony Davis scored 44, 38 and 42 points in his last three games before the All-Star break, leading New Orleans to victories in all of them. He leads the league with 22 games of 30 points or more and the Pelicans might need him to keep it up, as they are just a half-game ahead of the Clippers for the final playoff spot in the Western Conference.

MEN OF MYSTERY: Two of the NBA's strange absences could be cleared up after the break - or could last through the rest of the season. Spurs star Kawhi Leonard continues to rehabilitate a right thigh injury and coach Gregg Popovich said Wednesday that he would be surprised if Leonard returned this season. ''How late do you bring somebody back? That's why I'm just trying to be honest and logical,'' Popovich said. ''Philadelphia guard Markelle Fultz, the No. 1 draft pick, remains sidelined with a right shoulder injury after playing in just four games. Neither player has been ruled out for the season, though there's not much time left if they're going to come back.

RISING ROOKIES: Utah's Donovan Mitchell, who won the Slam Dunk contest at the All-Star Game, and Ben Simmons of Philadelphia could be locked in tight race for Rookie of the Year. Both have their teams on the rise, as the Jazz have won 11 straight games to pull within 1 + games of eighth place in the West, while the 76ers have won five in a row and are seventh in the East.

LONZO AND THE LAKERS: Lonzo Ball is set to return to the Lakers after missing the last 15 games with a sore left knee. While the No. 2 pick was out, the Lakers have used Brandon Ingram in the point guard role and also acquired Isaiah Thomas from Cleveland, so coach Luke Walton will have to figure out how to fit in his prized rookie.

 

[Cnotes53]

Spurs preparing to play without Leonard
February 21, 2018

SAN ANTONIO (AP) The Spurs are preparing to play without star forward Kawhi Leonard this season, San Antonio coach Gregg Popovich said.

Leonard has missed all but nine games this season as he battles right quadriceps tendinopathy.

''We only have X number of games left this season and he's still not ready to go,'' Popovich said Wednesday. ''And if by some chance he is, it's going to be pretty late into the season and it's going to be a tough decision. How late do you bring somebody back? That's why I'm just trying to be honest and logical. I'll be surprised if he gets back this year.''

Tendinopathy is a disease of the tendon that includes tenderness and pain, particularly during exercise.

Leonard began experiencing discomfort in his leg late in the offseason, which caused him to sit out the team's training camp and preseason. Neither Leonard nor the team knew the severity of the injury, which forced the two-time NBA Defensive Player of the Year to miss the first 27 games of the season.

Leonard returned to play nine of the next 17 games, sitting out eight games as part of a scheduled ''return from injury management.''

He averaged 16.2 points and 4.7 rebounds in nine games this season, including 19 points in 29 minutes against Denver on Jan. 13. The 6-foot-7 forward complained of soreness and pain the day after playing the Nuggets and has not played since.

''We've got to move on, the team has to realize that this is who we are, this is who we have and this is who's going to play. Wishing and hoping doesn't do anybody any good. We've got to do what we can to be the best team possible.''

The Spurs are third in the Western Conference despite lengthy injuries to Leonard, Tony Parker and Rudy Gay along with minor ailments to Danny Green and Kyle Anderson. San Antonio (35-24) is only 3 1/2 games ahead of the ninth-place Los Angeles Clippers, however.

Popovich and the Spurs have a history of being cautious with the health of their players. San Antonio opted not to play Tim Duncan in the first round of the 2000 playoffs against Phoenix due to a knee injury even though Duncan was cleared to play, leading to a five-game loss to the Suns.

 

[Cnotes53]

THURSDAY, FEBRUARY 22
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

BK at CHA 07:00 PM
BK +8.0
U 216.5

NY at ORL 07:00 PM
ORL -3.5
U 215.5

WAS at CLE 08:00 PM
WAS +5.5
O 221.5

PHI at CHI 08:00 PM
PHI -6.5
O 213.0

OKC at SAC 10:00 PM
OKC -7.5
O 214.0

LAC at GS 10:30 PM
LAC +11.0
O 234.0

 

[Cnotes53]

Dinero Tracker - Feb. 23
February 23, 2018

Read the Dinero Tracker's mission statement here
Last night's ATS Records
NBA: 2-4 | NCAA BB: 12-12

The NBA returned with underdogs barking loudly. Of the six favorites, only the Hornets won and covered, while the Cavs and Magic lost outright. The Bulls and Kings flirted with upsets after Philly and OKC blew double-digit first-half leads, so the focus to put together 48 minutes clearly wasn't there. I was laying points in both and paid the price. The night in college ended poorly, resulting in a .500 finish to end our run of winning days this week. Here is Thursday's recap, complete with some of the highlights (and lowlights):

FRIDAY'S FREE SELECTION

The pick: Celtics/Pistons UNDER 205
Brad Stevens has gotten the better of Stan Van Gundy in five of their last seven games. It's helped to have the better team, but since their first two meetings went OT and both coaches want their teams to lock down defensively after getting sloppy before the break, there's definitely a competitive vibe in play here over your typical first outing after All-Star. Marcus Smart returns to help the Celtics try and shore things up, so I expect this game to see defense tighten up and tempo to slow down. Ride the under.

THURSDAY'S FREE SELECTION

The pick: BYU/Portland OVER 137.5
Elijah Bryant really emerged for the Cougars once Moutntain West play began but has slumped some of late, scoring more than 14 points only once over his last five outings while shooting 21-for-54 (38 percent). We'll see if facing a Portland squad that he toasted for 22 points and a career-best 15 rebounds can get him to perk up, especially with Yoeli Childs healthy and running next to him following an injury scare. Portland has become reliable against the number under Terry Porter in 2018, coming in 8-1-1 against the spread over its last 10. This is in part due to the fact he often leaves starters in for a little cosmetic love, but his team has really done a nice job hanging around with most everyone in the WCC in February. Expect the over to come in here.

Result: The freebie's winning streak ended while most of you slept. It was frustrating to see a Pilots team that has extended games for months now completely reverse course in letting precious seconds roll off the clock in a 72-60 loss. If Portland had been as aggressive as it has been in securing cosmetic results over the course of WCC play, the foul game would've delivered the extra possessions we ultimately needed.

THURSDAY'S LOCK

The pick: South Dakota State ML -140
The first meeting between these teams produced an 87-68 loss in Vermillion, so if the Coyotes can sweep the series, they?ll be the No. 1 seed in the Summit League tournament. Don?t expect that to happen. It?s Senior Day for key guys Reid Tellinghuisen, Skyler Flatten, Ian Theisen and Lane Severyn, not to mention star forward Mike Daum should he choose to leave. There?s no way the Jackrabbits lose this game. Ride South Dakota State on the money line, guaranteed.

Result: The Jackrabbits came through, winning 76-72 to capture the Summit. The reason why I refused to lay the 2.5/3 points in a game of this magnitude should've been evident if you watched how this ended, since there were multiple reviews in the final minute and the final possessions saw the cover change hands despite SDSU continuing to hold the lead it enjoyed throughout. Threatening to slide through the back door, the Coyotes actually trailed by just 2 points before intentionally missing the final free-throw. The Jacks ended up with enough time to inbound and add the game's final two points, delivering against the spread.

LOCK THAT DIDN'T CLICK

The pick: Thunder -7
Russell Westbrook and Paul George participated in the All-Star game but will have fresh legs for the first time in a while, rejoining forces with Carmelo Anthony and Steven Adams to try and get off to a good start post-break in Sacramento. Although Bogdan Bogdanovic is having himself a coming out party this month, fellow rookie De'Aaron Fox is now questionable with conjunctivitis, which would leave the Kings without a floor general they can trust since they moved to George Hill to the Cavs at the trade deadline. He'll likely play, but with backup Frank Mason also dealing with a heel issue, Westbrook has wounded prey to attack. Ride Oklahoma City -7, guaranteed.

Result: Oklahoma City led 44-21 after one quarter, but one of you must have started counting their money to jinx the rest of us. Don't do that. The Kings won the second and third by a 69-41 count, so despite Fox not playing and Bogdanovic scoring just four points, the Kings covered behind big games from Zach Randolph and Buddy Hield. The prospect of OT dangled one last chance in front of our faces, but Westbrook's buzzer-beater on a night where he shot 4-for-14 gave the Thunder a 110-107 win.

TOTAL RECALL

The pick: Santa Clara/Loyola Marymount UNDER 140.5
The Lions have struggled of late and are down Steven Haney, an elite shooter who really helped their spacing. Look for this game to lack firepower, which combined with methodical offense, should lead to enough lulls that it doesn't get to the 140-point mark. Ride the under in this WCC clash.

Result: This was in doubt only at the very end since the prospect of OT became a real possibility as Santa Clara successfully played the foul game to give itself a chance, but LMU survived 65-64.

UPSET CITY

The pick: Houston -6
The Memphis Tigers have pulled off victories at Tulane and SMU to restore hope that they can run the table given a manageable schedule. With no statement wins on their schedule, this becomes a final opportunity, but Jeremiah Martin still isn't 100 percent and Memphis lacks the depth and explosiveness to hang around with the Cougars. Rob Gray should be able to put this one away. Ride Houston.

Result: Despite Martin aggravating a hip injury and leaving in the first half, Memphis persevered on a brilliant night for Tubby Smith, who showed off his coaching skills and the fact that the team he's put together this season has stuck together throughout every obstacle. Depleted Memphis cashed over double your investment on the money line in a 91-85 upset I didn't see coming.

CARDIAC ATTACK

The pick: Louisiana/Troy OVER 155
Troy has a tendency to play at a slower tempo on the road, but has gotten very comfortable at home of late, scoring over 80 points in each of their last four outings at Trojan Arena. Look for them to give the Ragin' Cajuns a game here, likely leading to this game being extended late in what should end up being a higher-scoring contest than expected. Ride the over.

Result: This unfolded exactly as expected, since we needed the Trojans to continue scoring and fouling the Ragin' Cajuns in order to pull this out. Louisiana got it done at the strip to hold off Troy 81-76, draining its last two free-throws in the final seconds to secure the bag.

SWING AND A MISS

The pick: Cavs -5.5
LeBron James is certainly motivated with a new team around him, which by all reports produced a spirited practice as guys are ready to get after it. Meanwhile, Washington remains without John Wall for the next few weeks and will be led by first-time All-Star Bradley Beal, who has admitted he didn't get as much rest as he would've liked over the break. Since the Wizards are often so flat, I don't trust them to hang around on the road against the revitalized Cavs. Lay the points and ride Cleveland.

Result: LeBron was brilliant, but Washington took advantage of a still vulnerable Cleveland defense to pull off a 110-103 upset. Bradley Beal and Tomas Satoransky combined for 35 points and 17 assists on a night where the Wizards shared the ball beautifully to remind us all that the Cavs remain a work in progress.

PROOF OF CLAIRVOYANCE

The pick: Warriors/Clippers OVER 234
The Clippers aren't going to be able to defend well on the perimeter, which should spell trouble at Oracle regardless of how tired the Warriors say they are coming out of the All-Star break. L.A. has Lou Williams likely to be on the war path here after being shunned for a spot, so look for the high-scoring game that's expected to come to fruition now that it appears everyone is a go. Ride the over.  

Result: It helped to get a Danilo Gallinari 3-pointer just before the halftime buzzer, pulling the Clips within 70-58. Although there was still work to be done in the second half, covering this huge number was executed comfortably since the teams combined for 133 points over the final 24 minutes. Golden State shot 62.7 percent, while L.A. hit half its shots, producing a 134-127 final. The teams combined to hit 25 3-pointers.

 

[Cnotes53]

Wizards beat Cavs in first game in Cleveland since trades
February 23, 2018

CLEVELAND (AP) Bradley Beal scored 18 points, Kelly Oubre Jr. added 17 and tried to untie the sneakers of one of Cleveland's new players, and the Washington Wizards withstood a late assault by LeBron James to beat the new-look Cavaliers 110-103 on Thursday night.

The Wizards nearly blew a late 11-point lead as James scored 14 straight points to pull the Cavs within 106-103. But Beal hit a driving layup and James missed a free throw and committed a lane violation while intentionally missing the second one and the Wizards held on.

Washington is 8-2 since star guard John Wall went down with a knee injury. Tomas Satoransky, who has been starting in Wall's spot, added 17 points and eight assists.

James, back from winning MVP honors at the All-Star Game, scored 32 - 14 in the fourth - for the Cavs, who dropped to 2-1 since acquiring four new players before the trade deadline. J.R. Smith added 15 for Cleveland.

The Wizards spoiled the home debuts for Larry Nance Jr., George Hill, Rodney Hood and Jordan Clarkson, four new faces the Cavs are hoping can get them back to the NBA Finals.

WARRIORS 134, CLIPPERS 127

OAKLAND, Calif. (AP) - Stephen Curry swished a beautiful buzzer-beater from way back early and hit another timely 3-pointer late on the way to scoring 44, and Golden State returned from the All-Star break and held off Los Angeles.

Kevin Durant had 21 points and eight assists, Klay Thompson added 19 points, and Draymond Green contributed 13 points, seven rebounds, six assists and two steals.

Curry shot 14 for 19, including 8 of 11 from deep, in his third 40-point game of the season.

Tobias Harris scored 22 points, Danilo Gallinari wound up with 15 and DeAndre Jordan had 14 points and 14 rebounds for Los Angeles, which had won five of six.

THUNDER 110, KINGS 107

SACRAMENTO, Calif. (AP) - Russell Westbrook made a 3-pointer as time expired, lifting Oklahoma City over Sacramento.

The Thunder blew a 23-point lead and trailed 105-102 with 4 + minutes remaining before closing the game on an 8-2 run.

Paul George scored 26 points, Carmelo Anthony had 23 and Westbrook finished with 17 to help Oklahoma City to its second win in three games against Sacramento this season.

Zach Randolph scored 29 points to lead five Kings in double figures.

76ERS 116, BULLS 115

CHICAGO (AP) - Ben Simmons scored 32 points, making two free throws with 5.6 seconds left to complete Philadelphia's rally from five points down in the final minute, and the 76ers beat Chicago.

Joel Embiid had 30 points and 13 rebounds, and Simmons added 11 assists and seven rebounds as Philadelphia won its sixth straight and snapped a four-game road losing streak.

Bobby Portis had a career-high 38 points and Zach LaVine added 23 for the Bulls, who were 18 for 34 on 3-pointers.

HORNETS 111, NETS 96

CHARLOTTE, N.C. (AP) - Dwight Howard grabbed a season-high 24 rebounds and added 15 points, Kemba Walker scored 31 and Charlotte beat Brooklyn.

Dante Cunningham had 22 points and 12 rebounds for the Nets, who lost their eighth straight game and fell to 19-41.

D'Angelo Russell, starting for the first time since November knee surgery, scored 19 points on 7-of-16 shooting.

All five Charlotte starters scored in double digits and the Hornets hit 52.4 percent from 3-point range. Charlotte improved to 25-33 with its second straight victory.

KNICKS 120, MAGIC 113

ORLANDO, Fla. (AP) - Trey Burke came off the bench with a season-high 26 points and six assists to help New York break an eight-game losing streak.

Tim Hardaway Jr. had 23 points and six assists for the Knicks, who won for the first time since Jan. 30 and the first time since losing Kristaps Porzingis for the season to a torn ACL.

Evan Fournier scored 25 points for the Magic, who lost their fourth straight.

 

[Cnotes53]

Armadillo: Friday's six-pack

Six top prospects for the Atlanta Braves:

1) Ronald Acuna, OF? Hit .344 in 221 AB?s in AAA last season

2) Luiz Gohara, P? Was 1-3, 4.91 in five major league starts LY.

3) Mike Soroka, P? Was 11-8, 2.75 in 26 starts in Southern League LY.

5) Ian Anderson, P? Turns 20 in May; went to HS here in the Albany area.

6) Austin Riley, 3B? HS kid from Mississippi hit .315 in AA ball LY.

9) Cristian Pache, OF? Hit .290 in first 176 pro games, but with no home runs.


**********

Armadillo: Friday's List of 13: Random stuff with weekend here??.

13) Drexel 85, Delaware 83? Dragons trailed this game 53-19 with 2:36 left in first half; this is the biggest comeback ever in D-I college basketball, beating out a Duke-Tulane game from way back in 1950, when the Green Wave blew a 32-point lead.

12) Arizona 75, Oregon State 65 OT? Wildcats lost Allonzo Trier earlier in the day to a failed drug test, rallied late to win here, as Beavers scored only one basket in last 14:08 of game. Trier was suspended for 19 games last year for a similar offense. Bad beat if you had the Beavers, +5.

11) Memphis 91. Houston 85? Cougars? 5-game win streak ends; three of their six losses are to teams outside top 100. Memphis won its last three games after a 5-7 start in AAC play.

10) This was the 1970 Final Four:
UCLA (in between the Alcindor/Walton eras)
St Bonaventure (Bob Lanier at C, but he got hurt in regional final)
Jacksonville (Artis Gilmore at C)
New Mexico State (Sam Lacey at C)

Imagine those three schools making the Final Four today, all with centers who would have good pro careers? Times have changed a lot.

9) South Dakota State 76, South Dakota 72? Jackrabbits clinch regular season title in Summit League, which doesn?t mean all that much, since tournament is played at a neutral site. State outscored South Dakota 19-11 over the last 6:04 of this game.

8) Utah 84, UCLA 78? Utes played without Sedrick Barefield but won anyway; it is their fifth win in a row- their home game with USC Saturday is a big bubble-type game. UCLA won six of last eight games but lost four of their last five road games.

7) Seton Hall 89, Providence 77? Game that started Wednesday in the Dunkin? Donuts Center was finished Thursday afternoon, in the Friars? on-campus gym, because of condensation on the court in the big arena. Pirates went 24-35 on foul line in a big road win for them.

6) Upsets of the Day:
Green Bay (+10.5) 96, Oakland 90
Rice (+7.5) 79, Florida Atlantic 76 OT
Memphis (+7) 91, Houston 85

5) Florida International 69, North Texas 68? Nine of North Texas? 15 C-USA games have been decided by 4 or less points, or in OT. All 15 games were decided by 7 or less, or in OT.

4) Virginia will be the #1 seed in the ACC tournament for the third time in five years next month; in the 60 years before that, Virginia was #1 seed in the ACC tournament once.

3) Dick Vitale has season tickets to the Tampa Bay Rays, right near the 3rd base dugout, but he called on Rays? owner Stu Sternberg to sell the Rays this week.

?If you don?t want to own a team and give the fans a chance (to see competitive baseball), sell the team. There?ll be a buyer in a heartbeat.?

2) Oregon 75, Arizona State 68? ASU was 12-0 on Christmas, but now they?re 7-8 in Pac-12, in 8th place in a 12-team league.

1) One of the things I?ve learned in retirement is that weekday television is incredibly bad, but not in March. Spring training games start today, and that is?..tremendous.

 

[Cnotes53]

NBA
Armadillo's Write-Up

Friday, February 23

Road team won seven of last nine Boston-Detroit games; Celtics covered their last four games in Detroit. Six of last nine series games stayed under. Boston lost four of its last five games; they?re 9-2 vs spread as road underdogs. Three of their last four games went over. Pistons lost three of their last four games; they?re 3-11 in last 14 games as home favorites. Three of their last four games stayed under.

Pacers won their last three games with Atlanta; last six series games stayed under. Hawks are 2-3 vs spread in last five visits to Indiana. Atlanta lost four of its last five games; they?re 5-2 in last seven games as road underdogs. Five of their last seven games stayed under. Indiana won seven of its last nine games; they?re 6-3 in last nine games as home favorites. Three of last four Pacer home games went over.

Home side won nine of last ten Charlotte-Washington games; Hornets are 0-4 vs spread in last four visits to Washington. Seven of last nine series games went over. Charlotte lost four of its last six games; they?re 8-11-2 as road underdogs, 4-5 vs spread if they played night before. Last three Hornet road games stayed under. Wizards won eight of last ten games; they?re 3-6 in last nine games as home faves. 4-2 if they played night before. Over is 7-3 in their last ten home tilts.

Toronto won its last five games with Milwaukee; three of last four series games went over total. Bucks covered three of their last five visits to Canada. Milwaukee won five of its last seven games; they?re 10-11 as road underdogs. Eight of their last ten games stayed under. Raptors won their last seven games (6-1 vs spread); they?re 5-2 in last seven games as home favorites. Last three Toronto games went over.

Pelicans won five of last eight games with Miami; over is 5-3 in those games. Heat is 3-2 vs spread in its last five visits to Bourbon Street. Miami lost seven of its last eight games; they?re 10-3 in last 13 games as home underdogs. Five of their last six games went over. New Orleans won its last three games; they?re 2-7 in last nine games as home favorites. Four of their last six games went over.

Cavaliers won five of their last seven games with Memphis; they?re 2-2 vs spread in last four visits here. Over is 5-5 in last ten series games. Cleveland won four of its last five games; they?re 6-14 vs spread as road favorites, 4-5 if they played night before. Cavaliers? last four games all went over. Memphis lost its last seven games; they?re 7-9 as home underdogs. Over is 5-3 in their last eight games.

Rockets won nine of last ten games with Minnesota, which covered five of its last six games in this arena. Eight of last ten series games went over. Timberwolves lost their last four road games; they?re 2-5 in last seven games as road underdogs. Last six Minnesota games went over the total. Houston won its last ten games; they?re 3-8 vs spread in last 11 games as home favorites. Four of their last six games went over.

Spurs won eight of their last ten games with Denver; they?re 2-2 vs spread in last four visits here. Five of last seven series games went over. San Antonio lost five of its last six games; they?re 6-6 as road underdogs. Seven of their last eight games went over. Nuggets won six of last seven games, four in row at home; they?re 12-8 in last 20 games as home favorites. Eight of their last nine games went over.

Home side won eight of last nine Portland-Utah games; Blazers are 1-4 vs spread in their last five visits to SLC. Over is 6-4 in last ten series games. Portland won three of its last four games; they?re 10-4 in last 14 games as road underdogs. Blazers? last three games went over the total. Jazz won their last 11 games; they?re 9-14 vs spread as home favorites. Six of their last nine games went over.

Clippers won their last six games with Phoenix (5-1 vs spread); they?re 1-3 vs spread in last four visits to the desert, all of which went over the total. Clippers won seven of their last ten games; they?re 5-1 as road favorites, 4-3 vs spread on road if they played night before. Eight of their last ten games stayed under. Phoenix lost its last seven games; they?re 8-17 as home underdogs. Suns? last four home games went over.

Lakers lost nine of last ten games with Dallas; six of last nine series games stayed under. Mavericks covered four of last five series games played here. Dallas lost eight of its last ten games; they?re 1-4 in last five games as road underdogs. Three of last four Dallas games went over total. Lakers lost their last three games; they?re 5-3 as home favorites. Last three LA games went over.

 

[Cnotes53]

NBA

Friday, February 23

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
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BOSTON @ DETROIT
Boston is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Detroit
Boston is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Detroit
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Detroit's last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Detroit's last 5 games when playing at home against Boston

ATLANTA @ INDIANA
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Atlanta's last 5 games when playing Indiana
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Atlanta's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Indiana's last 5 games when playing Atlanta
Indiana is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games at home

CHARLOTTE @ WASHINGTON
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Charlotte's last 5 games when playing on the road against Washington
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Charlotte's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Washington's last 5 games when playing at home against Charlotte
Washington is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Charlotte

MILWAUKEE @ TORONTO
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Milwaukee's last 12 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Milwaukee's last 6 games on the road
Toronto is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Toronto is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Milwaukee

CLEVELAND @ MEMPHIS
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Cleveland's last 6 games on the road
Cleveland is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Memphis is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 games at home
Memphis is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against Cleveland

MINNESOTA @ HOUSTON
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Minnesota's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Minnesota's last 8 games when playing on the road against Houston
Houston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Houston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

MIAMI @ NEW ORLEANS
Miami is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Miami's last 6 games when playing on the road against New Orleans
The total has gone OVER in 15 of New Orleans's last 18 games at home
New Orleans is 20-4 SU in its last 24 games when playing at home against Miami

PORTLAND @ UTAH
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Portland's last 7 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Portland's last 6 games when playing on the road against Utah
Utah is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Utah is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

LA CLIPPERS @ PHOENIX
LA Clippers is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Phoenix
The total has gone OVER in 5 of LA Clippers's last 5 games when playing on the road against Phoenix
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Phoenix's last 5 games when playing at home against LA Clippers
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Phoenix's last 5 games at home

SAN ANTONIO @ DENVER
The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Antonio's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Antonio's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Denver's last 5 games
Denver is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games at home

DALLAS @ LA LAKERS
Dallas is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against LA Lakers
Dallas is 15-1 SU in its last 16 games when playing LA Lakers
LA Lakers is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games at home
LA Lakers is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

 

[Cnotes53]

Three-year trend says Houston Rockets are a bad bet as home favorites

The Houston Rockets begin the final stretch of the regular season as the clear No. 1 threat to the Golden State Warriors' NBA title defense. The Rockets are far exceeding the preseason expectations and own a half game lead over the Dubs for the best record in the Western Conference at 44-13.

But Houston?s success hasn?t equaled a boom for NBA bettors. The Rockets are just 28-28-1 against the spread on the season and 11-17 ATS on their home floor. Covering the spread as favorites at the Toyota Center has been a problem for the Rockets. The club is 42-62-1 ATS (40.4 percent) as home chalk since the start of the 2015-16 campaign and 10-16-1 this season.

To be fair to Houston supporters, the stat is a three-year trend and this is only Year 1 of the Chris Paul-James Harden partnership. Both players have missed time along with starting center Clint Capela. GM Daryl Morey will tell anyone who?ll listen his squad is 28-1 (17-11-1 ATS) in games with Paul, Harden and Capela in the lineup.

Oddsmakers are making bettors pay a premium to back the soaring Rockets. Houston has been favored by an average of 12.5 points over its last six home games and has covered the spread just once the last 10 times it's been favored by double digits.

There are reasons to be optimistic about the Rockets? chances as 8.5-point faves at home to the Minnesota Timberwolves on Friday night and moving forward. Mike D?Antoni?s group enters the last 25 games of the season with a clean bill of health and reinforcements from the buyout market.

Joe Johnson and Brandan Wright fill out an all-ready deep frontcourt rotation. Johnson didn?t do much for the Utah Jazz this season but he was one of their best performers in the playoffs last spring. D?Antoni is known for using a short bench but he trusts more players on this year?s Rockets team.

Houston allows 110 points per 100 possessions in the fourth quarters of home games which is the third most in the Association and owns a -3.6 net rating in the final frames of home games. Adding Johnson and Wright into the mix should help their bench unit hold leads and avoid ugly, backdoor covers.




Leonard expected to miss rest of season; oddsmakers drop Spurs' title odds

The Westgate SuperBook adjusted the San Antonio Spurs? odds to win the NBA title from +2500 to +4000 after head coach Gregg Popovich told reporters on Wednesday he?d be surprised if former NBA Finals MVP Kawhi Leonard returns this season.

The Spurs opened as the third favorite to win the 2018 championship at +1000 behind the Cleveland Cavaliers and Golden State Warriors, but their odds had dropped to +2500 by the All-Star break. San Antonio?s increased odds have come with the Houston Rockets edging ahead as the clear second choice in the Western Conference. The Westgate lists the Rockets as the clear second fave to lift the Larry O?Brien Trophy at +200 after opening them at +3000 last May.

Leonard has played only nine games this season because of a lingering quad injury, and the Spurs are 30-20 straight up and 24-21-2 against the spread without their two-time All-NBA first teamer. ESPN?s Adrian Wojnarowski reported on Wednesday night that Leonard has been cleared to play by San Antonio?s medical staff.

Oddsmakers told us at the start of the season that Leonard was worth about seven points to the Spurs? game odds. He entered the campaign as the preseason co-favorite to win the NBA MVP award along with LeBron James at +400.

San Antonio limped into the All-Star break with a 1-5 record in its last six games and just two ATS wins in its last seven contests. The Spurs get back to work on Friday night with a game at Denver and then play at Cleveland on Sunday.

 

[Cnotes53]

NBA
Long Sheet

Friday, February 23

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BOSTON (40 - 19) at DETROIT (28 - 29) - 2/23/2018, 7:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BOSTON is 33-23 ATS (+7.7 Units) in all games this season.
BOSTON is 46-27 ATS (+16.3 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 15-4 ATS (+10.6 Units) in road games against Central division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
DETROIT is 5-5 against the spread versus BOSTON over the last 3 seasons
BOSTON is 6-4 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
6 of 10 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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ATLANTA (18 - 41) at INDIANA (33 - 25) - 2/23/2018, 7:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
INDIANA is 5-3 against the spread versus ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
INDIANA is 5-3 straight up against ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
7 of 8 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CHARLOTTE (25 - 33) at WASHINGTON (34 - 24) - 2/23/2018, 7:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHARLOTTE is 22-32 ATS (-13.2 Units) in all games this season.
CHARLOTTE is 6-18 ATS (-13.8 Units) as an underdog this season.
CHARLOTTE is 25-37 ATS (-15.7 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
CHARLOTTE is 7-17 ATS (-11.7 Units) when playing on back-to-back days over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 13-23 ATS (-12.3 Units) as a favorite this season.
WASHINGTON is 401-469 ATS (-114.9 Units) in home games since 1996.
WASHINGTON is 151-197 ATS (-65.7 Units) on Friday nights since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON is 6-4 against the spread versus CHARLOTTE over the last 3 seasons
WASHINGTON is 5-5 straight up against CHARLOTTE over the last 3 seasons
7 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MILWAUKEE (32 - 25) at TORONTO (41 - 16) - 2/23/2018, 7:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MILWAUKEE is 366-441 ATS (-119.1 Units) in the second half of the season since 1996.
MILWAUKEE is 9-19 ATS (-11.9 Units) on Friday nights over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 133-97 ATS (+26.3 Units) in road games against Atlantic division opponents since 1996.
MILWAUKEE is 43-25 ATS (+15.5 Units) in road games after scoring 115 points or more since 1996.
MILWAUKEE is 40-20 ATS (+18.0 Units) in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game since 1996.
TORONTO is 190-239 ATS (-72.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
TORONTO is 10-6 against the spread versus MILWAUKEE over the last 3 seasons
TORONTO is 13-3 straight up against MILWAUKEE over the last 3 seasons
10 of 16 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MIAMI (30 - 28) at NEW ORLEANS (31 - 26) - 2/23/2018, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 78-60 ATS (+12.0 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 50-32 ATS (+14.8 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 20-11 ATS (+7.9 Units) in road games this season.
MIAMI is 145-109 ATS (+25.1 Units) in February games since 1996.
MIAMI is 26-14 ATS (+10.6 Units) in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 29-14 ATS (+13.6 Units) revenging a home loss vs opponent over the last 3 seasons.
MIAMI is 40-25 ATS (+12.5 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 24-10 ATS (+13.0 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 18-4 ATS (+13.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 4-1 against the spread versus NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI is 3-2 straight up against NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CLEVELAND (34 - 23) at MEMPHIS (18 - 38) - 2/23/2018, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CLEVELAND is 18-38 ATS (-23.8 Units) in all games this season.
CLEVELAND is 9-33 ATS (-27.3 Units) as a favorite this season.
CLEVELAND is 8-19 ATS (-12.9 Units) in road games when playing on back-to-back days over the last 3 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) in non-conference games this season.
CLEVELAND is 5-20 ATS (-17.0 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record this season.
CLEVELAND is 29-15 ATS (+12.5 Units) on Friday nights over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
MEMPHIS is 3-2 against the spread versus CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
CLEVELAND is 3-2 straight up against MEMPHIS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MINNESOTA (36 - 25) at HOUSTON (44 - 13) - 2/23/2018, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MINNESOTA is 362-425 ATS (-105.5 Units) in the second half of the season since 1996.
MINNESOTA is 53-83 ATS (-38.3 Units) after scoring 115 points or more since 1996.
MINNESOTA is 32-15 ATS (+15.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
HOUSTON is 31-44 ATS (-17.4 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
MINNESOTA is 6-3 against the spread versus HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON is 8-1 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
7 of 9 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SAN ANTONIO (35 - 24) at DENVER (32 - 26) - 2/23/2018, 9:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN ANTONIO is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in road games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season.
DENVER is 27-15 ATS (+10.5 Units) in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 47-30 ATS (+14.0 Units) after a non-conference game over the last 3 seasons.
SAN ANTONIO is 1033-905 ATS (+37.5 Units) in all games since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) on Friday nights over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN ANTONIO is 6-4 against the spread versus DENVER over the last 3 seasons
SAN ANTONIO is 8-2 straight up against DENVER over the last 3 seasons
6 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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PORTLAND (32 - 26) at UTAH (30 - 28) - 2/23/2018, 9:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
UTAH is 5-5 against the spread versus PORTLAND over the last 3 seasons
UTAH is 5-5 straight up against PORTLAND over the last 3 seasons
6 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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LA CLIPPERS (30 - 27) at PHOENIX (18 - 41) - 2/23/2018, 9:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHOENIX is 52-35 ATS (+13.5 Units) after a loss by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons.
LA CLIPPERS are 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) after a division game this season.
LA CLIPPERS are 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season.
PHOENIX is 7-19 ATS (-13.9 Units) in home games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
LA CLIPPERS is 6-4 against the spread versus PHOENIX over the last 3 seasons
LA CLIPPERS is 8-2 straight up against PHOENIX over the last 3 seasons
5 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DALLAS (18 - 40) at LA LAKERS (23 - 34) - 2/23/2018, 10:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA LAKERS are 133-96 ATS (+27.4 Units) after 3 or more consecutive overs since 1996.
DALLAS is 402-328 ATS (+41.2 Units) as an underdog since 1996.
DALLAS is 498-417 ATS (+39.3 Units) in road games since 1996.
LA LAKERS are 161-204 ATS (-63.4 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
DALLAS is 7-2 against the spread versus LA LAKERS over the last 3 seasons
DALLAS is 8-1 straight up against LA LAKERS over the last 3 seasons
6 of 9 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

 

[Cnotes53]

Friday's Tip Sheet
February 23, 2018

Game of the Night: Timberwolves at Rockets (-8 ?, 226) ? 8:05 PM EST

Two teams that will be headed to the Western Conference playoffs hook up in Houston to begin the second half of the season. The Rockets (44-13 SU, 28-28-1 ATS) closed the first half on a 10-game winning streak, which includes a 126-108 victory at Minnesota on February 13 to cash as 3 ?-point road favorites. Houston continues to dominate at the Toyota Center by winning nine straight home games with the last loss coming to Golden State on January 4.

The Timberwolves (36-25 SU, 28-31-2 ATS) ended the first half by failing to cover in their last five contests, including as 10-point favorites in a 119-111 home victory over the Lakers last Thursday. Minnesota?s road woes have been well-documented, as the Wolves have dropped 10 of their past 11 games away from Target Center, while covering only twice in this span. Since the calendar flipped to 2018, Minnesota owns one road victory, which came against the Clippers in a 126-118 win as 2 ?-point underdogs on January 22.

The Wolves are currently riding a six-game OVER streak, while drilling the OVER in five of the past seven road contests. Minnesota has had its struggles with Houston over the years by posting a 1-12 record since the start of the 2014-15 season, including an 0-2 mark this season. However, the Wolves have covered in five of their past six visits to the Toyota Center.

Boston Blues

The Celtics (40-19 SU, 34-23-2 ATS) were rolling atop the Eastern Conference through the first three months of the season. However, a recent three-game home skid, coupled with Toronto?s seven-game winning streak has resulted in Boston falling back to second place in the Atlantic division. The Celtics lost all three games on their homestand to the Pacers, Cavaliers, and Clippers, while allowing 121 points to Cleveland and 129 points to Los Angeles.

Boston begins a two-game road swing on Friday that starts in Detroit (28-29 SU, 26-29-2 ATS), as the two teams have split a pair of meetings this season. The Pistons have been ice-cold against the number by failing to cover in five straight games, while snapping a three-game skid in a 104-98 home victory over the Hawks last Wednesday. Detroit has yet to be listed as an underdog with Blake Griffin in the lineup, while the Pistons own a dreadful 3-14 ATS record the past 17 games.

Avoid Buck-to-Buck Losses

Milwaukee (32-25 SU, 24-28-5 ATS) closed the first half with an atrocious defensive performance in a 134-123 home setback to Denver. The Bucks not only allowed the Nuggets to shoot 55% from the floor, but also yielded 24 three-pointers. Milwaukee has done a nice job of bouncing back from a defeat since late December by compiling an 8-2 mark off a loss, while winning four of its past six games away from BMO Harris Bradley Center.

The Bucks are playing with double-revenge after losing twice to the Raptors in a five-day span last month. Toronto (41-16 SU, 32-25 ATS) is riding a seven-game winning streak, while covering six times in that stretch to take over first place in the Atlantic division. The Raptors are currently on a 9-1 run at Air Canada Center, but Dwane Casey?s team owns a 5-5 ATS record in this span with all five ATS losses coming as a favorite of six points or more.

Dazzling Jazz

One month ago, Utah (30-28 SU, 31-27 ATS) was blown out at Atlanta as 2 ?-point favorites to slip to 19-28. The Jazz seemed on their way to the draft lottery, but 11 victories later and they are right back in the playoff conversation. Quin Snyder?s club is riding an 11-game winning streak, which included seven victories on the highway. One of those road wins in this stretch came at Portland in a 115-96 triumph as four-point underdogs on February 11, led by rookie sensation Donovan Mitchell?s 27 points.

The Jazz seek their third win over the Blazers (32-26 SU, 28-25-5 ATS) this season as the two teams meet up in Salt Lake City. Portland closed the first half with victories in three of its final four contests, including a 123-117 win over Golden State as six-point underdogs. However, the Blazers have lost six straight games in the role of a road underdog, while allowing at least 111 points in five of those defeats.

You Again?

In a rare instance, one teams is playing in consecutive matchups at the same venue in the regular season. The Nuggets (32-26 SU, 28-27-3 ATS) outlasted the Spurs last Thursday, 117-109 as seven-point favorites to pick up its first win over San Antonio in three tries this season.

San Antonio heads back to the Pepsi Center again to face a Denver squad that has won six of its past seven games. The Nuggets finished the first half with a lights-out shooting performance in a 134-123 triumph at Milwaukee to hit the OVER for the fifth straight game.

The Spurs (35-24 SU, 30-27-2 ATS) went into the break on a sour note by losing five of six games, while eclipsing the OVER in each of the past five contests. San Antonio has lost six straight games as a road ?dog, while the last victory in the role of an away ?dog came back on December 20 at Portland.

Waving the Wand

Following a 27-point comeback in a 118-113 victory at New York last Thursday, the Wizards (34-24 SU, 28-30 ATS) rallied from a double-digit deficit to beat the Cavaliers last night, 110-103 as six-point underdogs. Washington improved to 8-2 since John Wall has been sidelined, while owning a perfect 5-0 SU/ATS record in the role of a favorite. The Wizards welcome in the Hornets, looking to avenge an embarrassing 133-109 loss at Charlotte last month. In that defeat, Charlotte lit up Washington for 77 first half points, while the Hornets knocked down 15 three-pointers.

Charlotte (25-33 SU, 23-31-4 ATS) plays with no rest after pulling away from Brooklyn on Thursday, 111-96 as eight-point favorites. The Hornets halted a six-game ATS skid with the cover, but Charlotte looks to end an 0-5 ATS slump on the road. Charlotte has seen its struggles in D.C. over the years by dropping five straight meetings at Capital One Arena, while making its first visit to Washington this season.

Back on Track?

The Cavaliers (34-23 SU, 18-38-1 ATS) had their four-game winning streak end to Washington on Thursday in a seven-point defeat. LeBron James scored 32 points on 13-of-18 shooting in the loss, but the Cavs fell to 5-19-1 ATS in the role of a home favorite this season. Cleveland turns around quickly with a visit to Memphis as the Cavaliers are 9-1 to the UNDER on the second of a back-to-back set this season.

The Grizzlies (18-38 SU, 24-30-2 ATS) suffered seven straight losses to close out the first half, including owning a 1-4 ATS mark in the final five games. Memphis has compiled a 6-6 ATS record since the start of December in the role of a home underdog, while losing four straight when receiving points at FedEx Forum. The Grizzlies picked up a cover as 11 ?-point ?dogs at Cleveland in early December in a 116-111 defeat, the third ATS win in the last four meetings with the Cavaliers.

 

[Cnotes53]

Thursday's Result + Feb. Record

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD

02/22/2018 6-6-0 50.00% -300

02/14/2018 10-7-0 58.82% +1150

02/11/2018 6-4-0 60.00% +800

02/10/2018 6-8-0 42.86% -1400

02/09/2018 7-7-0 50.00% -350

02/07/2018 3-5-0 37.50% -1250

02/01/2018 4-6-0 40.00% -1300

Totals...............42 - 43......49.41.......-26.50