Cnotes53 2017 NBA Best Bets-Trends-News Thru Playoffs !

[Cnotes53]

NBA
Dunkel

Wednesday, April 11


Toronto @ Miami

Game 701-702
April 11, 2018 @ 8:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Toronto
120.523
Miami
118.624
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Toronto
by 2
205
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Toronto
by 5
203
Dunkel Pick:
Miami
(+5); Over

New York @ Cleveland

Game 703-704
April 11, 2018 @ 8:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
New York
111.768
Cleveland
121.673
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Cleveland
by 10
228
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Cleveland
by 14 1/2
220
Dunkel Pick:
New York
(+14 1/2); Over

Milwaukee @ Philadelphia

Game 705-706
April 11, 2018 @ 8:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Milwaukee
115.721
Philadelphia
124.609
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Philadelphia
by 9
224
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Philadelphia
by 6 1/2
220
Dunkel Pick:
Philadelphia
(-6 1/2); Over

Denver @ Minnesota

Game 707-708
April 11, 2018 @ 8:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Denver
119.547
Minnesota
124.674
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Minnesota
by 5
210
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Minnesota
by 1 1/2
217 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Minnesota
(-1 1/2); Under

Memphis @ Oklahoma City

Game 709-710
April 11, 2018 @ 8:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Memphis
110.324
Oklahoma City
123.441
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Oklahoma City
by 13
216
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Oklahoma City
by 16 1/2
212
Dunkel Pick:
Memphis
(+16 1/2); Over

San Antonio @ New Orleans

Game 711-712
April 11, 2018 @ 8:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
San Antonio
118.851
New Orleans
124.447
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New Orleans
by 5 1/2
207
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New Orleans
by 2
211 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
New Orleans
(-2); Under

Washington @ Orlando

Game 713-714
April 11, 2018 @ 8:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Washington
122.190
Orlando
114.078
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Washington
by 8
200
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Washington
by 5 1/2
204 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Washington
(-5 1/2); Under

Brooklyn @ Boston

Game 715-716
April 11, 2018 @ 8:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Brooklyn
120.224
Boston
116.312
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Brooklyn
by 4
202
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Brooklyn
by 1
207 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Brooklyn
(-1); Under

Detroit @ Chicago

Game 717-718
April 11, 2018 @ 8:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Detroit
115.402
Chicago
116.519
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Chicago
by 1
215
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Detroit
by 3
211 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Chicago
(+3); Over

Utah @ Portland

Game 719-720
April 11, 2018 @ 10:35 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Utah
130.017
Portland
119.539
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Utah
by 10 1/2
203
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Portland
by 4
200
Dunkel Pick:
Utah
(+4); Over

Houston @ Sacramento

Game 721-722
April 11, 2018 @ 10:35 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Houston
117.334
Sacramento
116.298
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Houston
by 1
207
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Houston
by 3 1/2
202 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Sacramento
(+3 1/2); Over

LA Lakers @ LA Clippers

Game 723-724
April 11, 2018 @ 10:35 pm

Dunkel Rating:
LA Lakers
117.223
LA Clippers
116.409
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
LA Lakers
by 1
221
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Clippers
by 2 1/2
217
Dunkel Pick:
LA Lakers
(+2 1/2); Over

 

[Cnotes53]

NBA

Wednesday, April 11


Total Streaks

*The Over is 4-1 in the Celtics? last five games.
*The Under is 10-3-1 in the last 14 games between the Knicks and Cavs.
*The Under is 4-1-1 in the Heat?s last six home games.
*The Under is 13-6 in the Magic?s last 19 games.
*The Over is 14-2 in the Bucks? last 16 games.
*The Over is 10-3 in the Timberwolves? last 13 home games.
*The Under is 4-0 in the Spurs? last four road games.
*The Under is 4-0 in the Thunder?s last four games.
*The Over is 5-0 in Utah?s last five games.
*The Under is 5-0 in the Kings? last five games.

Injury of Note

The last day of the season means rest for a lot of star players. Here?s a list of big-name players who won?t suit up for tonight?s games:

Milwaukee Bucks: Giannis Antetokounmpo
Los Angeles Clippers: Lou Williams
Memphis Grizzlies: Marc Gasol
Detroit Pistons: Andre Drummond
Washington Wizards: John Wall and Otto Porter

Trends

*The Nets are 35-16 ATS in their last 51 road games.
*The Knicks are 1-5 ATS in their last six games.
*The Cavaliers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games.
*The Heat are 1-5 in their last six games.
*The Wiz are 0-4 ATS in their last four games playing on zero days? rest.
*The 76ers are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games.
*The home team is 7-0 ATS in the last seven meetings between the Bulls and Pistons.
*The Nuggets are 20-5-1 ATS in their last 26 games in Minnesota.
*The Spurs are 0-6 ATS in their last six road games.
*The Pelicans are 4-0 ATS in their last four games.

 

[Cnotes53]

NBA Game of the Day: Nuggets at Timberwolves betting odds and preview

Denver Nuggets at Minnesota Timberwolves (-3.5, 215.5)

The final day of the regular season will decide seeding in each conference and give several teams a chance to get healthy or build momentum heading into the playoffs, but only one game is win or go home. The Minnesota Timberwolves (46-35 straight up, 36-42-3 against the spread) host the Denver Nuggets (46-35 SU, 37-41-3 ATS) on Wednesday, and the winner will advance to the postseason while the loser heads to the offseason earlier than anticipated.

The Timberwolves were in third place in the Western Conference at several points this season and could still finish as high as fifth with a win on Wednesday and some help, or they could miss the playoffs and continue a tough stretch in which the franchise has not qualified for the postseason since 2004.

?Don?t nobody like losing," Minnesota All-Star swingman Jimmy Butler told reporters. "Nobody in this locker room does at least. I think this city deserves to be in the playoffs. We?re the only ones who control that. ... If we win this game Wednesday, I think that puts us in the playoffs, right? So that?s what we?ve got to do."

Minnesota fans aren't overly thrilled with the play of the Timberwolves since the All-Star break. Supports at the Target Center booed the players on Monday at the close of the first quarter when the Wolves trailed the Memphis Grizzlies by six points. Minnesota would go on to win the game by 19 points.

Remember too, the puck drops in Game 1 of the NHL first round playoff series between the Minnesota Wild and the Winnipeg Jets an hour before the tip off between the Wolves and Nuggets. Whatever fans are at the Target Center on Wednesday night could be scoreboard watching.

The Nuggets are coming in hot with wins in the last six games and are well acquainted with win or go home basketball after needing a win to stay alive on Monday. Denver managed to overcome an 11-point, second-half deficit and earn an 88-82 victory while holding Portland to 13 points in the fourth quarter.

TV: 8 p.m. ET, Altitude (Denver), FS North (Minnesota)

LINE HISTORY: Oddsmakers opened with Minny as a 2.5-point home fave but the spread has grown to 3.5 points. The total opened at 213.5 and was bet down to 212 before rebounding all of the way up to 215.5.

INJURY REPORT:

Timberwolves - PF Taj Gibson (Questionable, Neck)

Nuggets - No significant injuries to report.

POWER RANKINGS: Nuggets (-3.5) - Timberwolves (-4.9) - Home court (-3.0) = Timberwolves -4.4

MATCHUP CHART:

ABOUT THE NUGGETS (46-35): Denver center Nikola Jokic is driving the team forward and collected 15 points, 20 rebounds and 11 assists in Monday's win for his second straight triple-double and 10th of the season. The 23-year-old is averaging 23.7 points, 16 rebounds and 8.2 assists during the six-game winning streak but suffered through his worst shooting night of the stretch in a 100-96 home win over Minnesota on Thursday, when he went 6-of-20 from the floor. Shooting guard Gary Harris missed that meeting with a knee injury but returned from an 11-game absence on Monday and eased back into the rotation with 12 points in 18 minutes off the bench.

ABOUT THE TIMBERWOLVES (46-35): Minnesota picked up wins in the last two games, coinciding with Butler's return from knee surgery. The veteran swingman played 23 minutes against the Lakers and the Grizzlies and averaged 16.5 points while going a combined 10-of-18 from the floor, and he was not afraid to call out his team after it fell behind the lowly Grizzlies by 10 points in the first half on Monday.

"We were just playing soft," Butler told reporter. "We tend to do that from time to time. Whenever we play hard, good things happen."

TRENDS:

*The Over is 22-9-1 in the Nuggets last 32 games.
*The Over is 10-3 in the Timberwolves 13 last home games.
*The Nuggets are 20-5-1 ATS in the last 26 games at Minnesota.
*The Nuggets are 5-1 ATS in their last six road games.
*The Under is 4-1 in the Wolves' last five games.

 

[Cnotes53]

WEDNESDAY, APRIL 11
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

WAS at ORL 08:00 PM
ORL +5.5
U 205.5

MEM at OKC 08:00 PM
OKC -16.5
O 212.5

BK at BOS 08:00 PM
BK -2.0
U 206.0

TOR at MIA 08:00 PM
MIA -4.5
U 202.5

SA at NO 08:00 PM
NO -4.0
O 211.5

DEN at MIN 08:00 PM
DEN +3.5
U 216.0

DET at CHI 08:00 PM
CHI +4.0
O 212.5

MIL at PHI 08:00 PM
PHI -6.5
O 220.0

NY at CLE 08:00 PM
CLE -13.5
U 220.0

LAL at LAC 10:30 PM
LAL +2.5
O 216.5

UTA at POR 10:30 PM
POR -3.0
O 202.0

HOU at SAC 10:30 PM
SAC +3.0
O 203.0

 

[Cnotes53]

Timberwolves beat Nuggets in OT to reach playoffs
April 11, 2018

MINNEAPOLIS (AP) Jimmy Butler scored 31 points, Karl-Anthony Towns had 26 points and 14 rebounds and the Minnesota Timberwolves ended the NBA's longest-running playoff drought, beating the Denver Nuggets 112-106 in overtime Wednesday night in the first final-day play-in game in the league in 21 years.

When the final horn blew, the capacity and white-towel-waving crowd at Target Center stood to soak in Minnesota's first postseason appearance since 2004. Butler flashed a smile of relief as he hugged his teammates and confetti fluttered above the floor. The fans chanted ''MVP! ''MVP!'' as Butler conducted a postgame interview.

Jokic locked in a classic big man battled with Towns, finishing with 35 points and 10 rebounds, but he missed six of his last eight shots after the third quarter as Denver's late push fell a few points short.

The Timberwolves are moving on to play, gulp, the NBA-best Houston Rockets in the first round.

Will Barton, who had 24 points, made a 3-pointer to beat the shot clock for Denver's first lead, 104-103, since midway through the first quarter. After Taj Gibson hounded Jokic to force an air-balled 3-point try, Jeff Teague swished a floater with 1:19 left in overtime to put the Wolves back in front for good.

Andrew Wiggins sank two foul shots with 15 seconds remaining to finish with 18 points, and the Wolves were finally on their way to a celebration more than a decade in the making.

THUNDER 137, GRIZZLIES 123

OKLAHOMA CITY (AP) - Russell Westbrook clinched a triple-double average for the second straight season, Paul George scored 40 points and Oklahoma beat Memphis.

Westbrook entered the night needing 16 rebounds to clinch the triple-double average. He pulled down his 16th rebound with just over nine minutes left in the third quarter and received a standing ovation. He finished with just six points, but had a career-high 20 rebounds and 19 assists.

Steven Adams scored 24 points. and Corey Brewer added 17 for the Thunder, who matched a franchise record with 20 made 3-pointers. Dillon Brooks scored a career-high 36 points for Memphis.

76ERS 130, BUCKS 95

PHILADELPHIA (AP) - Joel Embiid and JJ Redick watched from the bench, Ben Simmons had a scoreless first half and Philadelphia still won its 16th consecutive game to take the No. 3 Eastern Conference seed.

Fultz had his first career triple-double with 13 points, 10 assists and 10 rebounds. Justin Anderson led the Sixers with 25 points, and Dario Saric had 24.

Embiid wore a black mask during warmups to protect his broken bone around his left eye, then changed into gold sneakers and a peach-colored jacket to watch the Sixers romp to a stunning 80-44 lead at the break. Embiid said he will likely miss at least Game 1 of the playoffs this weekend because of the injury.

KNICKS 110, CAVALIERS 98

CLEVELAND (AP) - LeBron James played in his 82nd game, scored 10 points and then got some rest for the playoffs in Cleveland's loss to New York in coach Jeff Hornacek's likely last game with the Knicks.

James had never played every game in his 15-year NBA career. But he capped a remarkable season in which he seemed to break a record every night by adding another accomplishment to his long list of achievements. Cavs coach Tyronn Lue said he tried to talk James out of playing, but he gave in and allowed the 33-year-old to extend his record of scoring in double digits to 873 consecutive games before taking him out. James finished with 10 points and five rebounds in 10:33.

Knicks rookie Luke Kornet scored a season-high 23 points.

HEAT 116, RAPTORS 109, OT

MIAMI (AP) - Wayne Ellington scored a career-high 32 points and set Miami's single-season record for 3-pointers, helping the Heat wrap up the No. 6 seed in the Eastern Conference.

Ellington finished with eight 3-pointers, giving him 227 for the season. He topped the mark set by Damon Jones, who made 225 in 2004-05. Kelly Olynyk, Dwyane Wade, Justise Winslow, James Johnson and Tyler Johnson each scored 11 points for the Heat.

Kyle Lowry scored 28 points for Toronto, which already had the top seed in the East wrapped up.

PELICANS 122, SPURS 98

NEW ORLEANS (AP) - Anthony Davis had 22 points, 15 rebounds, four blocks and three steals, and New Orleans assured itself no worse than the sixth seed in the Western Conference.

Rajon Rondo had 19 points and 14 assists, Nikola Mirotic had 21 points and 15 rebounds, and Jrue Holiday added 19 points for the Pelicans

LaMarcus Aldridge, Tony Parker and Dejounte Murray each scored 11 points for San Antonio.

MAGIC 101, WIZARDS 92

ORLANDO, Fla. (AP) - Rodney Purvis scored 16 points for Orlando and Mario Hezonja finished with 15 points, eight rebounds and six assists.

Jodie Meeks came off the bench to score 18 points for Washington. They lost five of their last six games to take the eighth and final Eastern Conference playoff spot.

CELTICS 110, NETS 97

BOSTON (AP) - Aron Baynes led a short-handed Boston lineup with a career-best 26 points and 14 rebounds, carrying the Celtics past Brooklyn.

Jonathan Gibson scored 18 points, Guerschon Yabusele had 16 and Shane Larkin added 12 points, 10 assists and seven rebounds for the Celtics. Nik Stauskas scored 18 points for the Nets.

PISTONS 119, BULLS 87

CHICAGO (AP) - Rookie Luke Kennard scored a career-high 23 points and Eric Moreland set career bests with 16 points and 17 rebounds for Detroit.

Anthony Tolliver had 18 points and Henry Ellenson added 14 points and 10 rebounds. Rookie Lauri Markkanen had 20 points for Chicago.

 

[Cnotes53]

It's playoff time: The NBA's first-round pairings are set
April 12, 2018

MIAMI (AP) The brackets for the NBA playoffs are set, with all eight first-round matchups decided on the very last night of the regular season.

Portland beat Utah in the final game on the schedule. The Trail Blazers earned the No. 3 seed and will play No. 6 New Orleans, while Oklahoma City climbed into the No. 4 spot and will take on the fifth-seeded Jazz.

No. 1 Houston plays No. 8 Minnesota in another West quarterfinal, and defending NBA champion Golden State - the No. 2 seed in the West - meets No. 7 San Antonio.

In the East, No. 1 Toronto will play No. 8 Washington, No. 2 Boston meets No. 7 Milwaukee, No. 3 Philadelphia faces No. 6 Miami and No. 4 Cleveland opens against No. 5 Indiana.

 

[Cnotes53]

Current NBA Playoff Matchups

Come back each day to see what's on the menu for the NBA Playoffs:

Eastern Conference

CURRENT MATCHUP

(1) Toronto (59-23)
Games remaining: 0 (0 Home, 0 Away)
vs. +.500: 0, vs. East: 0

(8) Washington (43-39)
Games remaining: 0 (0 Home, 0 Away)
vs. +.500: 0, vs. East: 0
Regular season series (Series tied 2-2)
Nov 5, 2017 Washington 107, Toronto 96
Nov 19, 2017 Washington 91, Toronto 100
Feb 1, 2018 Toronto 119, Washington 122
Mar 2, 2018 Toronto 102, Washington 95

CURRENT MATCHUP

(2) Boston (55-27)
Games remaining: 0 (0 Home, 0 Away)
vs. +.500: 0, vs. East: 0

(7) Milwaukee (44-38)
Games remaining: 0 (0 Home, 0 Away)
vs. +.500: 0, vs. East: 0
Regular season series (Series tied 2-2)
Oct 18, 2017 Milwaukee 108, Boston 100
Oct 26, 2017 Boston 96, Milwaukee 89
Dec 4, 2017 Milwaukee 100, Boston 111
Apr 3, 2018 Boston 102, Milwaukee 106

CURRENT MATCHUP

(3) Philadelphia (52-30)
Games remaining: 0 (0 Home, 0 Away)
vs. +.500: 0, vs. East: 0

(6) Miami (44-38)
Games remaining: 0 (0 Home, 0 Away)
vs. +.500: 0, vs. East: 0
Regular season series (Series tied 2-2)
Feb 2, 2018 Miami 97, Philadelphia 103
Feb 14, 2018 Miami 102, Philadelphia 104
Feb 27, 2018 Philadelphia 101, Miami 102
Mar 8, 2018 Philadelphia 99, Miami 108

CURRENT MATCHUP

(4) Cleveland (50-32)
Games remaining: 0 (0 Home, 0 Away)
vs. +.500: 0, vs. East: 0

(5) Indiana (48-34)
Games remaining: 0 (0 Home, 0 Away)
vs. +.500: 0, vs. East: 0
Regular season series (Pacers leads 3-1)
Nov 1, 2017 Indiana 124, Cleveland 107
Dec 8, 2017 Cleveland 102, Indiana 106
Jan 12, 2018 Cleveland 95, Indiana 97
Jan 26, 2018 Indiana 108, Cleveland 115



Western Conference

CURRENT MATCHUP

(1) Houston (65-17)
Games remaining: 0 (0 Home, 0 Away)
vs. +.500: 0, vs. West: 0

(8) Minnesota (47-35)
Games remaining: 0 (0 Home, 0 Away)
vs. +.500: 0, vs. West: 0
Regular season series (Rockets lead 4-0)
Jan 18, 2018 Minnesota 98, Houston 116
Feb 13, 2018 Houston 126, Minnesota 108
Feb 23, 2018 Minnesota 102, Houston 120
Mar 18, 2018 Houston 129, Minnesota 120

CURRENT MATCHUP

(2) Golden State (58-24)
Games remaining: 0 (0 Home, 0 Away)
vs. +.500: 0, vs. West: 0

(7) San Antonio (47-35)
Games remaining: 0 (0 Home, 0 Away)
vs. +.500: 0, vs. West: 0
Regular season series (Warriors lead 3-1)
Nov 2, 2017 Golden State 112, San Antonio 92
Feb 10, 2018 San Antonio 105, Golden State 122
Mar 8, 2018 San Antonio 107, Golden State 110
Mar 19, 2018 Golden State 75, San Antonio 89

CURRENT MATCHUP

(3) Portland (49-33)
Games remaining: 0 (0 Home, 0 Away)
vs. +.500: 0, vs. West: 0

(6) New Orleans (48-34)
Games remaining: 0 (0 Home, 0 Away)
vs. +.500: 0, vs. West: 0
Regular season series (Series tied 2-2)
Oct 24, 2017 New Orleans 93, Portland 103
Dec 2, 2017 New Orleans 123, Portland 116
Jan 12, 2018 Portland 113, New Orleans 119
Mar 27, 2018 Portland 107, New Orleans 103

CURRENT MATCHUP

(4) Oklahoma City (48-34)
Games remaining: 0 (0 Home, 0 Away)
vs. +.500: 0, vs. West: 0

(5) Utah (48-34)
Games remaining: 0 (0 Home, 0 Away)
vs. +.500: 0, vs. West: 0
Regular season series (Thunder lead 3-1)
Oct 21, 2017 Oklahoma City 87, Utah 96
Dec 5, 2017 Utah 94, Oklahoma City 100
Dec 20, 2017 Utah 79, Oklahoma City 107
Dec 23, 2017 Oklahoma City 103, Utah 89

 

[Cnotes53]

Playoff Trends to Watch
April 11, 2018

With help from our trusted well-oiled database, let?s examine four key time-tested proven theories that have lined our pockets during the opening round of playoffs since 1991. Here?s what the machine has to say as we head into the 2018 postseason.

No. 8 Seeds Are Often Behind The 8-Ball

For the most part, No. 8 seeds in the NBA playoffs are teams that likely scratched and clawed their way into the post-season. Simply put, they are not good enough to be seriously considered threats against top-seeded opponents, as they were just barely better than the dregs of the league.

Rest assured, their life expectancy is not long at all, as they?ve lost over 72% of time (58-154 SU) in games against No. 1 seeds since 1996. In fact, only the 1996 New York Knicks, the 2007 Golden State Warriors and the 2012 Philadelphia 76ers were good enough to pull the rug on top seeded foes and advance to Round Two of the playoff.

And you can virtually write them off in games against No. 1 seeds that are off consecutive SU and ATS wins. These guys scratch out of the match with alarming regularity, going 4-30 SU and 10-24 ATS, including 0-18 SU and 3-15 ATS whenever the 8-ballers are off a spread loss of 4 or more points in their last game. Be aware.

Upset Losers Are Winners

Yes, you read that right... it?s not an oxymoron. Instead, it?s a powerful handicapping edge. It occurs whenever a team was upset as a favorite in an opening round game and is at home in the game immediately thereafter.

That?s confirmed by the fact that they are 97-26 SU and 72-47-4 ATS, a rock solid number 60.5 winning spread angle. And if these upset victims happen to be a No. 1, 2, or 3 seed they are a jaw-dropping 67-11 SU and 50-26-2 ATS in these follow-up affairs, including 27-3 SU and 22-6 ATS when facing a division rival.

Don?t be afraid of these chalkbusters. That?s because they don?t lose their composure. Instead they almost always dig down deep and respond with aplomb in games after being embarrassed.

Double-Digit Dogma

Surprisingly, in the right role, double-digit underdogs do well in opening round contests, especially when playing off a playoff loss. These overweight puppies are 35-22-2 ATS in this role.

And if these same guys lost as a double-digit dog in their last game they zoom to 26-13-1 ATS, including 18-6 ATS against non-division foes.

Granted, these dogs are not exactly pedigree puppies but the fact of the matter is they tend to come up big against disinterested favorites not capable of chopping heavy lumber.

And Down Goes Frazier

The psyche of teams that are not playing well comes immediately to the surface during the opening round of the NBA playoffs. That?s evidenced by the fact that teams riding a 0-3 loss-skein in this round are wobbly and often times one punch away from being counted out.

With glass-like jaws, these swirling 0-3 teams are just 28-48 SU and 25-45-4 ATS away from home this round.

Worst of all, 0-3 road dogs of more than four points are 4-28 SU and 8-24 ATS on their way to the canvas.

Trending

Defending champions (the Golden State Warriors in this case) are 82-34 SU and 63-48-5 ATS overall in opening round games the next season, including 18-8 SU and 16-9-1 ATS in Game One of Round One the following season.

Furthermore, theses champs are 13-3-1 ATS when coming off a double-digit loss during the first round, including a spotless 6-0 SUATS when facing a sub .590 foe.

Enjoy the opening round of the 2018 NBA playoffs.

 

[Cnotes53]

16 NBA PLAYOFFS BETTING NOTES FOR 16 CHAMPIONSHIP CONTENDERS

Sixteen teams enter the weekend with the goal of winning an NBA championship - and while there are certainly some pretenders in the mix, there are a handful of teams that could walk away with the Larry O'Brien Championship Trophy this June. That said, two teams stand out in oddsmakers' eyes: The Golden State Warriors are the favorite at +125 on Bet365, followed by the Houston Rockets at +160.

Here are the key betting notes for each of this year's 16 playoff participants:

Eastern Conference

Toronto Raptors

The Raptors (+850 to win the title) came oh-so-close to joining the 60-win club this season, and are a significant threat to win the conference title given how well they performed - particularly in blowouts. Toronto went a stunning 33-5 in games decided by 10 or more points, making them a solid double-digit margin play in prop betting. On the flip side, they were just 5-7 in games decided by three points or fewer, so perhaps you should avoid making a close-decision prop bet on Toronto.


Boston Celtics

The Celtics (+6,000) are the feel-good story of the season considering how many key injuries they've had to deal with - but their run could be a short one if they don't curtail the turnovers. Boston has the second-worst turnover rate (15.2) percent over the previous 15 games; that stretch coincides with Kyrie Irving's absence from the lineup. That, combined with the sixth-slowest pace in the league over that span, suggests that bettors should take the under on the Celtics team total.

Philadelphia 76ers

The 76ers (+2,000) stunned the basketball world by winning their final 16 games of the season to seize third place in the conference away from the Cleveland Cavaliers. Bettors should note that Philly was the second-best first-quarter team in the league, both in terms of points (29.4) and margin (plus-3.4). This makes the Sixers a terrific first-quarter prop option, as well as a terrific play in the race to 20 points - but avoid them in late-game live betting, as their minus-1.1 fourth-quarter scoring margin is 29th overall.

Cleveland Cavaliers

LeBron James might have had his best NBA season yet - at age 33, no less. The future Hall of Famer posted his highest scoring average (27.5) since 2009-10 while setting career highs in assists (9.1) and rebounds (8.6); all while leading the league in minutes played. And The King has saved his best for last, tying or exceeding his regular-season scoring average in six straight postseasons - so consider the over on James' single-game point props as he looks to lead the Cavs (+750) to their second NBA title.

Indiana Pacers

The Pacers made a living out of pulling out tight games during the regular season - and that bodes well for them in their first-round matchup against LeBron and the Cavs. Indiana went a sensational 11-2 in games decided by three or fewer points; the 11 victories tied Boston for the most in that category. If they can hang with Cleveland into the latter stages of the game, you'll likely get great odds on a Pacers live bet; consider, as well, that Indiana was a perfect 3-0 in overtime games this season.

Miami Heat

Some teams come out of the half-time break on fire (you'll read about one such club shortly); others absolutely do not. The Heat (+10,000) find themselves in the latter category, entering the playoffs as the second-worst third-quarter team in the league at a paltry 23.9 points per game. Not only does this make the Heat completely avoidable in the third-quarter winner props, it should also make bettors think twice about picking Miami to have the highest-scoring second half despite Philly's fourth-quarter struggles.

Milwaukee Bucks

The Bucks (+7,000) couldn't have drawn a better first-round opponent than the Celtics, at least in one critical area. Milwaukee has been on fire over the past 15 games, averaging a league-best 21.2 points off turnovers in that span; no other team in the NBA is above 20 points. Combined with the Celtics' turnover troubles over that same stretch, bettors should consider taking the Bucks against the spread - or even as a straight-up underdog, which they're sure to be in the first two games of the series.

Washington Wizards

The Wizards (+9,000) might have a psychological edge, having eliminated Toronto in first-round play in 2015, but will need to be on their best behavior to have a shot at another upset this year. Washington averages 21.3 personal fouls per game, good for 25th out of 30 NBA teams; they also rank 25th in foul rate per possession (19.3 percent). Toronto ranks fourth overall in free-throw success rate (79.4 percent) - and extra foul shots will make them an attractive over play in team total props action.


Western Conference

Houston Rockets

The Minnesota Timberwolves had better be ready from the opening tip - because the red-hot Rockets certainly will be. Houston enters the postseason as the team to beat, due in no small part to averaging a league-best 30 points in the opening quarter. They'll be an overwhelming favorite not only in the highest-scoring first-quarter prop - the Rockets' boasted an NBA-best plus-4.5 first-quarter scoring margin during the regular season - but also to win the race to 20 points. Bet both props confidently.

Golden State Warriors

Only two teams in the NBA averaged 30 or more points in a specific quarter - the Rockets in the opening stanze, and the Warriors in the 12 minutes preceding the half-time break. Golden State averaged 30.2 third-quarter points in 2017-18, making them a cinch as third-quarter winners against the overmatched Spurs. But consider taking the first quarter as the highest-scoring period overall; the Warriors averaged 29.0 points for (third overall) but surrendered 29.1 points against (most in the NBA).

Portland Trail Blazers

The Trail Blazers (+4,000) will need to be at their offensive best to keep up with a New Orleans Pelicans team that averaged nearly 112 points per game - and to do so, the Blazers have to fix some truly awful fourth-quarter long-range shooting woes. Portland enters its first-round encounter having connected on just 24 percent of its fourth-quarter 3-point attempts over the past 15 games. That makes the Blazers a no-go in 4Q scoring props, and as a live bet if they find themselves trailing late.

Oklahoma City Thunder

Extra possessions have a significant impact - not only in real-game situations, but in betting prop scenarios, as well. And when it comes to generating those extra possessions - and more scoring as a result - no team is more proficient than the Thunder (+3,300). Oklahoma City led the entire league in both points off turnovers (18.7 per game) and second-chance points (14.9); the Thunder also paced the NBA in offensive rebounding (12.5) and steals (5.0). Give OKC a second look when it comes to team point totals.

Utah Jazz

Everyone knows Russell Westbrook like to operate at a faster pace - and that was especially true down the stretch, as OKC ranked ninth in pace over the final 15 games of the season. But that should please the Jazz (+4,000) just fine - they finished second in the NBA in field-goal shooting early in the clock (18-22 seconds left) at 59.9 percent, and were fourth in 3-point shooting at 48.3 percent. If the pace picks up at some point in this series, over bettors are going to have a field day.

New Orleans Pelicans

No team played more overtime games than the Pelicans (+10,000) - and few were as successful in extra time, with the Pelicans going an impressive 7-2 en route to an unexpected playoff berth. Defense was the key for New Orleans in OT; they boasted a 93.9 defensive rating in the extra period this season, the third-best mark of any team to appear in at least five overtimes. It might not come up, but should the Pelicans take the Blazers to OT, they'll be a solid live bet.

San Antonio Spurs

The Spurs (+7,000) weren't able to extend their incredible streak of 50-win seasons, but their run of playoff appearances remains intact. That said, San Antonio isn't being given much of a chance against the powerhouse Warriors - though bettors should note that the Spurs boasted an incredible plus-7.4 scoring margin at home this season, compared to a minus-1.6 differential on the road. Taking the Spurs against the spread in Games 3 and 4 could pay handsomely.

Minnesota Timberwolves

Facing a team that launches 42 3-point attempts per game is a daunting task - but sometimes, the shots just don't fall. And the Timberwolves (+8,000) prefer to score a little closer to the basket, averaging a whopping 49.2 points in the paint - fourth-most in the league. With the Rockets having allowed 48 points in the paint during the regular season - the third-worst rate in the NBA - it's clear the T'Wolves have an edge here. Consider taking them against the spread, especially in Games 3 and 4 in Minnesota.

 

[Cnotes53]

First Round Predictions
April 12, 2018

The 2017-18 NBA Playoffs begin this weekend as 16 teams will look to capture the Larry O?Brien Championship Trophy. Even though the latest future odds are leaning to a two-horse race between Houston and Golden State, many pundits believe the rest of the field is a toss-up.

Delving into the first round series odds deeper, the Rockets (-7000) and Warriors (-1500) have been installed as the largest series favorites over the Timberwolves (+2000) and Spurs (+900) respectively.

Our top NBA analysts (see below) don?t believe we?ll see any upsets for the top two seeds in the Western Conference but they may give up a game or two.

The other two series are interesting in the Western Conference and it?s fair to say you can make an argument for all four of the teams seeded between No. 3 and No. 6.

No. 3 Portland (-225) vs. No. 6 New Orleans (+190)
No. 4 Oklahoma City (-135) vs. No. 5 Utah (+115)

Tony Mejia and Chris David believe New Orleans will defeat Portland even though the Trail Blazers have homecourt for the opening round.

Mejia explained, ?Anthony Davis injured his knee five minutes into his first encounter with Portland, missed the second matchup entirely and scored 36 points in each of 2018?s meetings, shooting 31-for-47. The Trail Blazers aren?t going to be able to stop him, so with CJ McCollum mired in a slump and guards Rajon Rondo and Jrue Holiday healthy and playing at a high level at both ends, I see an upset coming in a 3-6 series between teams that were separated by just a single game and split 2-2 head-to-head. Damian Lillard scored 36 points and dished out 10 assists without a turnover to help the Blazers beat the Jazz on Wednesday, so hopefully his ankle issues are behind him and he?ll be ready to roll in what should be a fantastic series.?

In the 4-5 matchup, VegasInsider.com NBA expert Kevin Rogers believes Utah will advance, "The Jazz really took a hit by falling from third to fifth in the Western Conference playoffs by losing the season finale at Portland. Although that defeat prevented them from grabbing home-court advantage in the first round, the killer loss was falling to Atlanta last month as 14-point favorites, which snapped a nine-game winning streak."

"Utah lost three of four times to Oklahoma City this season, but all four matchups came prior to Christmas. That was a different Jazz team, as they finished 29-6 to go from a non-playoff team in January to nearly closing as the third seed. The Thunder have gone through plenty of ups and downs this season and posted a 4-1 record down the stretch to capture the fourth seed. However, Utah won a Game 7 on the road against the Clippers last season in the opening round and I would trust them to do the same this time at OKC," Rogers added.

If you?re looking for upsets this postseason, all three of our analysts are expecting at least one bomb to drop in the Eastern Conference. The only shared opinion is on Philadelphia, who will meet Miami in the first round.

Rogers told us why he?s buying Philadelphia to advance to the second round. He said, "It?s hard to fade the 76ers at this point, who enter the playoffs with 16 consecutive victories. Although a majority of those wins came against non-playoff teams, Philadelphia is feeling good about itself and should get Joel Embiid back in the lineup sometime during the first round. Miami staved off Washington for the Southeast title as both teams limped to the finish line, as the Heat split its final 10 games. For the exception of routing Cleveland, Miami beat Atlanta twice, Chicago, and New York down the stretch, while knocking off a Toronto squad in overtime that had nothing to play for."

David added, ?Even if Embiid misses a game or two, I can?t put stock into Miami especially when you look at its road record. The Heat closed the season with a 5-15 mark as a visitor and only one of those wins came against a playoff team (Bucks). I don?t believe Philadelphia will run Miami off the court knowing the pair split all four games this season, but they?ve been the more consistent shooting team and that will be the difference in this series.?

While Rogers believes the Wizards can shock Toronto in the first round, Mejia expects the Raptors to do what they?ve done all season and stop Washington in its tracks.

Mejia explained his position, ?Washington point guard John Wall participated in his first win since Jan. 19 against Boston on Tuesday and looks fresh enough to give the Raptors issues in his first action against them all season. The Wizards will go as far as he?ll take them given their limited depth after they ran out of gas down the stretch. Wall and Bradley Beal have to be great to overcome Toronto?s many advantages, but the fact they have to open on the road against the team that tied Houston for the NBA?s top home record makes it difficult to get behind their ability to flip the switch and make the East?s 1-8 matchup competitive.?

Due to injuries, the Boston-Milwaukee matchup isn?t your typical 2-7 playoff encounter. The Celtics (-150) are barely favored over the Bucks (+130) on the series price and Mejia believes Milwaukee will advance in a very tight series.

?The Celtics are hoping to have Marcus Smart back for the conference semifinals but will have their hands full getting there without him. Kyrie Irving is done and Gordon Hayward isn?t coming back either, so Brad Stevens is going to have to rely on Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum in larger roles to flourish against a team that has a lot of length and talent on the wing,? Mejia noted.

?Giannis Antetokounmpo has a chance to take the next step in his development by dominating a series and getting past the first round for the first time. He averaged 33.5 points and shot nearly 54 percent in four regular-season meetings with Boston and now has Jabari Parker and Malcolm Brogdon riding alongside him, plus Khris Middleton and Eric Bledsoe form a solid backcourt.?

The 4-5 matchups in the NBA are usually expected to be tight series yet the oddsmakers aren?t giving the Pacers (+480) much of a shot against LeBron James and the Cavaliers (-650).

Cleveland has burned bettors all season (30-49-3 ATS) and Chris David is buying the Pacers to knock off the Cavaliers and hand James his first ever defeat in an opening round playoff series.

David explained, ?What LeBron has done throughout his career is remarkable and if he makes another trip to the finals with this cast, then hats off to him once again. While his production offensively has actually improved, the defense is lacking and it?s quite embarrassing to watch. The Cavaliers can?t stop anybody and they?re ranked near the bottom of the league in points allowed and defensive field goal percentage. Indiana isn?t a great defensive team by any means, but it?s certainly better than Cleveland.?

?Statistically, both teams are all but even offensively and their shooting percentages from the field and 3-point land are neck-and-neck. Both clubs produced identical 21-20 road records and Indiana (23-23) was one win better than Cleveland (22-23) versus teams above. 500. The Pacers took three of four from the Cavaliers in the regular season and two of those wins came by a combined six points. I note that because Indiana went 11-2 in games decided by three points this season, the best percentage in the league. Also, they were 3-0 in overtime games. That confidence from those victories should go a long way and certainly help the Pacers pull off a first round shocker,? David added.

 

[Cnotes53]

East Betting Outlook
April 12, 2018

Eastern Conference - 1st Round Preview

In a season that has been nothing short of entertaining, it took all 82 games for us to finally figure out who was playing who in the first round. The Toronto Raptors engineered a brilliant season to earn the top seed, while Cleveland fell all the way to fourth overall in large part due to the insurmountable push Philadelphia exported to finish the season.

Who do you like? Who should you like? Where?s the best bets? It?s all relatively straightforward to be honest. Don?t forget, the first round is usually where things go chalk. I?d look out west for an ?upset? if I were you, depending on how you grade Celtics-Bucks considering the injuries. Speaking of which, let?s get to the breakdowns!

You can find the playoff series prices in the sportsbook, along with championship odds in the overall NBA Futures section.

No. 1 Toronto Raptors vs. No. 8 Washington Wizards
NBA Playoff Series Price: TOR -650 over WAS +500

Sweet redemption is the only way I can really qualify this matchup. Toronto, which has largely been brushed off as a ?cute contender?, gets to avenge the outright embarrassing sweep they experienced at the hands of these Wizards back in 2015.

This series is all about DeMar DeRozan and Kyle Lowry proving that they?re a potent enough duo to really push a team over the edge. Both have been properly lambasted in the past for their awful shooting percentages, which is all fair except that it ignores just how well both shot the ball in the playoffs last year. The number?s aren?t important ? your perception of this team is when betting on the NBA playoffs.

Whether you want to buy in to them or not, the Raptors have not only played like the best team in the conference, they?ve also produced like it. The only reason we doubt them is because we want to. Past playoff experiences have informed this mindset, but it?s not a completely honest and unbiased point of view. They don?t have the in-season weaknesses that Boston, Cleveland and other teams have shown. That part is fact. If you are wavering on whether to bet them as conference champions, that?s all fine and dandy but they are the most logical bet.

Lowry and DeRozan still have to do the heavy lifting for the Raptors, but this team overall is buoyed by far more depth than any other team in the Eastern Conference. VanVleet has turned in to what Toronto always wanted Corey Joseph to be, while Dwayne Casey has found prominent roles for the energetic Poeltl and the divisive skill set of Valunciunas. Thinning down the rotation has been focus for much of the second half, but the Raptors have the luxury of testing what got them to the dance and seeing if it works.

Washington is in shambles right now, and the haggard play of John Wall does not help. The team has to play him. There?s no choice. But they?ve been in a free fall since they lost him and can?t expect to truly recover now. Wall should work himself in to shape as the series progresses, but there?s no telling just how ready he is after just a handful of games on the court following a troubling injury.

I?m sure that the nerds out there could dig up ways in which Washington actually poses a threat in this series, but they?re a typically average team that?s only escape is the three-pointer, which they at shoot a top-5 clip league wide. There?s also a toughness inherent to the roster in Washington that will either bully Toronto or galvanize them.

Considering that Toronto still has something to prove even as a one seed, they?re going to attack this series with a ferocity that we probably didn?t expect from them. Vanquishing a ghost of playoffs past is imperative to their NBA futures odds as well.

Series Schedule: at Toronto (4/14), at Toronto (4/17), at Washington (4/20), at Washington (4/22) at Toronto (4/25)

No. 2 Boston Celtics vs. No. 7 Milwaukee Bucks
NBA Playoff Series Price: MIL +130 over BOS -150

We?ve waxed sadness about a Boston season that could have been since Kyrie Irving was reported as out for the next four or five months. That doesn?t mean that they?re immediately dead in the water. Brad Stevens is a genius when it comes to basketball and has extracted as much meaningful play out of his tattered squad as it gets. He should earn Coach of the Year without question. There?s no reason for him not to as he hasn?t earned the ?Popp? status of ?being too good to be in the conversation?.

This is less a question of how much you appreciate Boston as a team that can threaten the Eastern Conference, and has much more to do with whether or not you think Milwaukee has the stones to see this thing through. They?re an astonishingly and agonizingly average team with the 15th best scoring average for and the 16th best against. There?s nothing that they do exceptionally, despite having one of the most tide turning players in the entire game.

Giannis Antetokounmpo went from an MVP candidate to an afterthought over the remainder of the second half. That?s seemingly fair to a certain extent. His team floundered in the post Jason Kidd firing, and Giannis?s best game were either against fledgling competition, or in losses. He posted 27-16 against the Lakers, 37-11 while losing to Cleveland in a game that was hardly ever close and 38-10 against Orlando?also unfathomably in a loss.

It?s safe to say that Antetokounmpo is an undeniable, next level talent, but I don?t know if even he?s enough to get past Boston. We just don?t have any evidence of it. The Celtics play terrific, lock down defence despite the loss of so many important players.

That being said, Boston isn?t healthy and are dead fortunate to have the depth that they do. For the most part, they need explosive performances from their roster and there?s a lot to admire from Tatum to Rozier. However, the first round is all about having the best player in the series, and Giannis has obviously been properly paced to have an absolutely disruptive first round. An upset has to happen somewhere and the first round playoffs is where the best truly shine.

With Kyrie, the Celtics had the scoring touch and offensive dynamics to simply outplay the Bucks. Without him, they?ll be desperately searching for points as Giannis takes over in a hostile way.

Series Schedule: at Boston (4/15), at Boston (4/17), at Milwaukee (4/20), at Milwaukee (2/22), at Boston (4/24)

No. 3 Philadelphia 76ers vs. No. 6 Miami Heat
NBA Playoff Series Price: PHI -470 over MIA +395

Grading great teams is an easy exercise for the basketball nerd, but this series is anything but simple. Philadelphia has unearthly momentum heading in to the playoffs, having won 15 straight games while going while winning the last eight without Joel Embiid. He won?t be ready for Game 1 but he?ll come back eventually and that?s bad news for Hassan Whiteside.

Where Philadelphia grades out so damn well is on the defensive side, where they led the league in opponent field goal percentage. Luckily, they play a team like Miami which relies on perimeter shooting more than anything else. Philadelphia is a very strong team, and you can easily talk yourself in to Miami because of experience, coaching and Dwyane Wade.

But Philly has elevated recently in a way that is downright scary for the entire conference. From a sheer value standpoint, Miami is meant to tempt you but they really shouldn?t. There?s just nothing about them that excites me, and the odds here are what they are for a good reason.

It?ll be a better series as Philadelphia takes their lumps from a strong contender, but the Sixers earn the playoff series win and advance.

Series Schedule: at Philly (4/14), at Philly (4/16), at Miami (4/19(, at Miami (4/21), at Philly (4/24)

No. 4 Cleveland Cavaliers vs. No. 5 Indiana Pacers
NBA Playoff series Price: CLE -650 over IND +500

Of all the teams that the Cleveland Cavaliers could?ve faced in the first round, the Pacers are probably the best matchup. Oladipo will have to try to overcome the defensive Kraken that is LeBron James, and then somehow hope that the rest of his team can emerge with enough points to compete in this series.

That isn?t happening.

Indiana ranks 17th overall when it comes to points in the paint, which is the well known flaw of the Cleveland Cavaliers. I love Myles Turner from a long view, but he?s not a game changer in the paint. Not yet, anyways. Domantas Sabonis is also not his father, and that?s not a fair comparison considering that he?s the son of one of the greatest big men of all time, but the point is that he doesn?t have the raw physical tools to outmuscle Tristan Thompson or even Kevin Love.

I?ve sung the praises of the Indiana Pacers heading in to the playoffs but this is nightmare matchup for them. As one of the leading spread busters in the league, there?s merit to betting the Pacers as a cover team, but the long term outlook of this series is pretty simple.

All this being said, if you?re the type that loves betting against LeBron then by all means. Those +500 odds Indiana are carrying are easy to root for, especially if you believe that this Cavaliers team isn?t mentally prepared for what?s about to come their way. Let?s remember ? they were cobbled together using duct tape about two months ago.

Then again?George Hill revenge series?

 

[Cnotes53]

NBA Playoff Essentials
April 12, 2018

It?s pretty wild no one knew who they were squaring off against in postseason until the final games tipped off on Wednesday night.

After Milwaukee came out with no intention of being competitive against Philadelphia, it became clear we?d see the Pacers open in Cleveland but determining all of the other matchups required other games to go final. The Heat and Raptors went into OT. So did the battle for the No. 8 seed in the Western Conference between Minnesota and Denver.

It was a fun season livened up by the excitement of the final week but featured too many buzzkills to be considered great.

Kyrie Irving won?t participate in the playoffs. Kawhi Leonard is likely done too. DeMarcus Cousins will be in a suit on the bench for his first postseason ?appearance?. Stephen Curry won?t be part of the first round. Jimmy Butler got back just in time to go and Joel Embiid is expected to do the same when the weekend arrives, sporting a black mask.

Over the course of the regular season, you?ve read columns commenting on most NBA teams, but given the roller-coaster ride the Warriors and Cavs have taken us on, it feels like I?ve been writing about how to approach the matchup most anticipated when the regular season began, the seemingly inevitable Cleveland-Golden State, Part IV.

When things looked bleakest for the Cavs, after losses in eight of 10 between Christmas and Jan. 15, my opinion was to stick with them. Although it took the unexpected trade of Isaiah Thomas to perk things up, Cleveland enters the postseason at 6-to-5 to get out of the Eastern Conference per the Las Vegas Westgate SuperBook's latest update after it was even money as of Monday. The Cavs are 8-to-1 to win it all, and while I wouldn?t get behind that, consider this my very clear suggestion that you ride the best player of this generation to get back to an eighth consecutive NBA Finals.

In a season where James Harden has checked all the MVP options with a brilliant, dominant season as the best player on the best team, 33-year-old LeBron James has barged his way into the conversation, suiting up for all 82 games for the first time in his career. His Cavs have never needed him more, sabotaged by injuries to Kevin Love and pieces that didn?t quite fit coming over in return for Irving. Despite bouts with brutal defense and stagnant ball movement, Cleveland managed to finish fourth in the conference and arrives at this point healthier than it has been all season. For that reason alone, the Cavs will be formidable.

While I wouldn?t sell off the Warriors at all, I?m not as confident that they?ll be back to defend their title as I am that Cleveland will be back in another NBA Finals. Golden State needs Stephen Curry to work off any rust in a hurry, while Houston did what it needed to in ensuring it landed homecourt advantage. Expect to witness an epic Western Conference finals.

In the East, expect status quo.

Some may tell you that the East is as wide open as it has been since James returned to Cleveland after leaving Miami, but I wouldn?t believe the hype on that. Here are my notes on why to fade the rest of the conference, with Westgate?s odds in parentheses.

Toronto Raptors (3/2): This is the deepest team in the conference and they?ll have the homecourt edge at Air Canada Centre, so I?ll buy them as the favorite. DeMar DeRozan and Kyle Lowry must still prove they can get it done when it matters most, and it certainly didn?t help that LeBron administered his mind as the shorthanded Cavs won a pair of games against the Raps in late March to reaffirm their dominance. Fred Van Vleet hasn?t been healthy down the stretch, so getting him back to the level he had been playing at is essential.

Philadelphia 76ers (6/1): Embiid will be back to improve a team that has looked tremendous without him. Ersan Ilyasova and Marco Belinelli were brilliant additions, so this team needs to be taken seriously as Ben Simmons continues to improve and gain confidence. However, he?s a liability at the free-throw line and this group is light on guys who have felt the heat of the playoff spotlight. That?s ultimately going to catch up to them.

Boston Celtics (20/1): Losing Irving means there will be no Gordon Hayward comeback either, so it?s on Al Horford and the kids to do the heavy lifting. Although Jaylen Brown has emerged and rookie Jayson Tatum is extremely polished, there is a ceiling this team will ultimately hit since Brad Stevens? Xs and O skills will only be able to carry them so far.

Washington Wizards (40/1): John Wall has made it back and no one is talking about the Wizards being better off without him anymore considering how quickly that bubble burst. We?ll see whether keeping their ship afloat didn?t wear everyone out since the group is currently playing the worst of any East playoff team. Having won a few series the past few years, the hope is that this group will be ready to go when the weekend arrives. The talent is there. Cohesion and depth is not.

Indiana Pacers (40/1): The conference?s biggest surprise rides likely Most Improved Player honoree Victor Oladipo back into the postseason in a year where they were expected to take a step back after dealing Paul George. There?s a chance that they can pull off a first-round upset if Myles Turner turns it on in what?s been a disappointing season, but being first up to try and solve the LeBron James puzzle for an entire series makes it difficult to get excited about their chances of continuing to stun the basketball world.

Miami Heat (80/1): No one has the rim protection and perimeter defenders that this group brings to the table with Hassan Whiteside and Bam Adebayo in the post and guys like Josh Richardson and Justise Winslow available. If Goran Dragic and Dwyane Wade can be competent closers and James Johnson and Kelly Olynyk find a way to create matchup problems as x-factors, this is going to be one tough out.

Milwaukee Bucks (80/1): Giannis Antetokoumpo is going to be the best player on the floor more often than not and Jabari Parker has been able to shake off some of the rust in his return from a torn ACL, so this is a team talented enough to be a difficult matchup. Malcolm Brogdon just returned from knee soreness, so if he hits the ground running, the Bucks are going to be capable of locking up opposing guards since he and Eric Bledsoe are relentless defenders.

Here are a few notes on the field in the West. Westgate?s odds to win the conference are in parentheses.

Houston Rockets (10/11): Eric Gordon and Ryan Anderson rested down the stretch and Chris Paul got himself right as well, so Mike D?Antoni is going to have to his full arsenal in play. The Timberwolves are a tough matchup on paper with Jimmy Butler back and Karl-Anthony Towns playing as well as he has, but Houston won its four regular-season meetings against the Wolves by double-digits, surrendering 122.8 points per game.

Golden State Warriors (10/11): With Curry sidelined, guys like Quinn Cook and Nick Young will have to make contributions, but it?s not like Kevin Durant and Klay Thompson can?t shoulder the scoring load enough to get past the depleted Spurs. It?s also an advantage that the Blazers/Pelicans ended up being the matchup on their side of the bracket even though they lost the last three meetings against those two and ended up just 5-3 on the season. Both OKC and Utah are tougher to matchup with.

Portland Trail Blazers (25/1): The Blazers finally snapped their late-season slump in order to finish atop the Northwest Division, holding on to a homecourt advantage they badly needed. Center Jusuf Nurkic came on late in the season and will be the x-factor here but losing underrated small forward Mo Harkless to knee surgery was a big loss, while CJ McCollum is slumping at the wrong time. Damian Lillard dominated the regular-season finale against Utah but has been bothered by ankle soreness.

Oklahoma City Thunder (25/1): Paul George rediscovering his shooting stroke after admitting that he felt off over the season?s final weeks is a major development and one reason why it might be worth getting back on the OKC bandwagon. Carmelo Anthony coasted down the stretch and may surprise with his ability to take and make big shots. Meanwhile, Corey Brewer ultimately became an effective replacement for Andre Roberson as a defensive wing.

Utah Jazz (40/1): Rudy Gobert?s ability to impact a series as the most dominant defensive force in the league today will be on display against the Thunder but may not loom as large against a perimeter-oriented team like the Rockets. Donovan Mitchell and Ricky Rubio have really been tremendous down the stretch, which must continue to have a shot at getting out of this first series.

New Orleans Pelicans (100/1): If Anthony Davis can stay healthy, the Pelicans have one of the game?s most dominant forces to depend on in a winnable series against the Blazers. He scored 36 points in each of 2018?s meetings with Portland, shooting 31-for-47. Assuming Terry Stotts sends double-teams his way, advancing will likely depend on Nikola Mirotic and E?twaun Moore making the most of their open looks. Rajon Rondo and Jrue Holiday will get the job done at both ends of the floor to give the Pelicans a fighting chance.

San Antonio Spurs (50/1): With Kawhi Leonard still not ruled out for the postseason and reportedly still working on returning, oddsmakers have held off on making San Antonio a 100-to-1 shot. If he?s unable to return, LaMarcus Aldridge, Rudy Gay, Dejonte Murray, Manu Ginobili, Patty Mills and Danny Green will form the core of a team likely to be competitive but not talented enough to take seriously in a series against a heavyweight like Golden State.

Minnesota Timberwolves (150/1): Can Jamal Crawford have a big series? How about Jeff Teague? The Wolves have two of the best players in the league in Butler and Towns, so Houston will have its hands full if those fringe guys can knock down shots and get going. After ending a lengthy postseason drought, Minnesota is playing with house money and will at least get some playoff experience out of the deal.

 

[Cnotes53]

Warriors, Cavs vulnerable, or headed for NBA Finals Round 4?
April 12, 2018

Maybe this is the year.

Maybe the Golden State Warriors, opening the postseason without Stephen Curry or any momentum, won't be the best of the West, where there's a Houston team that can run and gun as well as they do.

Maybe the Cleveland Cavaliers, starting from the middle of the pack in the East, just have too big a hill to climb, even with LeBron James carrying them.

Or perhaps none of that matters, and the NBA is headed toward Round 4 of its reigning rivalry.

The postseason opens Saturday and it's far from a guarantee it ends with a record fourth straight NBA Finals matchup between the Warriors and Cavaliers. Neither was the best team in its conference during the regular season - the Cavaliers were only No. 4 in the East - and it's not hard to envision a Houston to Toronto trip replacing what's become an annual Oakland, California, to Cleveland itinerary.

Then again, the Warriors could be as dangerous as ever once Curry returns from a knee injury that could have him back for the second round. James has played in the last seven NBA Finals, so nobody knows how to get to the finish line better, no matter from where he starts.

And the other top contenders have to overcome their history of disappointments. Houston's Mike D'Antoni and James Harden have never won, and Chris Paul hasn't even gotten out of the second round. The Raptors had their best regular season ever, but they were last seen in the postseason getting stomped in four straight by James and the Cavs last year in the second round.

Golden State faces No. 7 San Antonio on Saturday in the postseason opener, followed by the top-seeded Raptors and No. 8 Washington Wizards in the East. Sixth-seeded Miami and No. 3 Philadelphia are then followed by Portland-New Orleans in the other 3-6 matchup.

On Sunday, it's No. 7 Milwaukee at No. 2 Boston, and the Cavs hosting the No. 5 Indiana Pacers in the East, followed by No. 5 Utah at No. 4 Oklahoma City. The Rockets wrap up opening weekend against No. 8 Minnesota, ending the NBA's longest playoff drought with its first playoff appearance since 2004.

A look at some things to watch in the first round:

GOLDEN AGAIN?

Curry's injury is the only one that remains, but the Warriors at one point down the stretch were also without Kevin Durant, Draymond Green and Klay Thompson, too. Even the champions couldn't overcome that, dropping six of their final 10 games, but they start against a San Antonio team whose injury problems are every bit as bad, assuming Kawhi Leonard doesn't return after missing almost the entire season.

STREAKING SIXERS

Philadelphia is the hottest team in the postseason, winning its final 16 games to finish 52-30. But the 76ers are led by postseason newcomers in Joel Embiid and rookie Ben Simmons - and Embiid is still recovering from a broken orbital bone and concussion as the postseason begins - and will have to overcome their inexperience and a rugged Miami team.

THUNDER STRIKE?

It was an up-and-down regular season for Oklahoma City, which acquired Paul George and Carmelo Anthony to play with Russell Westbrook but finished well back of Houston and Golden State. But the Thunder might be one of those teams better built for the postseason, and they got an easier road when they won three straight to grab home-court advantage against a Utah team that would have had it before a season-ending loss at Portland.

BANGED-UP BOSTON

There's no more Kyrie Irving and there was only Gordon Hayward for a few minutes all season, so the Celtics are being overlooked despite their No. 2 seed in the East. But there's plenty of young (Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown) and veteran (Al Horford, Marcus Morris) talent on a 55-game winner that features one of the league's best coaches in Brad Stevens.

WHO WINS?

As good as Toronto is, it seems futile picking against James and the firepower around him to get to the NBA Finals. But the Cavaliers don't defend well enough and can be picked apart by top offenses, so go with the West champion to win the title, particularly if it's Golden State or Houston.

Take it from another champion.

''I like Houston and Golden State, pending their health, as being my top two favorites,'' five-time winner Kobe Bryant said during a conference call to promote his new basketball analysis show ''Detail'' that will run on ESPN during the postseason.

 

[Cnotes53]

Moving parts: Cavaliers to use 10-man rotation in 1st round
April 12, 2018

INDEPENDENCE, Ohio (AP) With the playoffs just days away, Cleveland Cavaliers coach Tyronn Lue typically would have his lineup rotations set by now.

Nothing has been typical about this season for the Cavs.

Lue said Thursday that he plans to use a 10-player rotation for Cleveland's opening-round series against the Indiana Pacers, but that things could change depending on injuries, matchups and performances.

''I will play 10,'' Lue said after the Cavaliers watched film on the Pacers, who went 3-1 against Cleveland this season. ''We'll just see how it looks and if one guy is not great this round, then it might be nine.''

Lue and his staff have been juggling lineups and using different combinations on the floor for months, forced to adjust and re-adjust, first because of injuries and then by a slew of trades that transformed the team.

Lue refused to name his full starting lineup for Sunday's Game 1. He revealed previously that four of them will be LeBron James, Kevin Love, Jeff Green and George Hill. The other spot could go to veteran shooter Kyle Korver, who has been slowed by a foot injury and whose status remains uncertain.

''He's getting better,'' Lue said of Korver, who also missed time recently following his brother's death. ''I'm not sure if he's 100 percent yet, but he's getting better and that's all you can ask for.''

If Korver isn't ready, Rodney Hood, one of four players acquired at the trade deadline, will likely start. He's been slowed by a sore left Achilles, but Lue said Hood's ''ready to go.''

As for Cleveland's reserves, Jordan Clarkson, J.R. Smith and Jose Calderon are in the rotational mix, with forwards Tristan Thompson and Larry Nance Jr. being used depending on whom Indiana has on the floor.

One of the holdovers from Cleveland's past three Finals teams, Thompson played extended minutes in the second half of Wednesday's loss to New York while Nance rested, a sign that Lue might be leaning toward him playing more.

Thompson was excused from Thursday's practice because of the birth of his daughter.

Lue trusts all his players. He's had no choice following a turbulent regular season in which he didn't always know who would be available until moments before tipoff. But Lue has depth and intends to use it.

Hall of Fame coach Pat Riley's philosophy in the playoffs was: ''You rotate eight players. You play seven. You use six and you trust five.''

Not Lue. Not this year.

''You usually go nine,'' he said. ''I think we've been nine in the past, but I think it's going to be important to go 10 for us because I like Clarkson being on the floor with a point guard, so that makes us play 10.''

Hill, who has plenty of playoff experience with San Antonio, Indiana and Utah, said Cleveland's versatility may give the Cavs an advantage.

''I've been on a team that played a 10-man rotation in the playoffs, but I haven't been on a team this deep, so I think we'll have a lot of great guys that we can throw out there on the court with big lineups, small lineups,'' he said. ''I think we can play any type of style.''

For Hill, the matchup against the Pacers represents a homecoming, as he played for IUPUI and spent five years with the Pacers. It's also a chance to win a championship with James, a former playoff nemesis.

Hill played on those Pacers teams that were eliminated in three straight postseasons by James and the Miami Heat.

That can't happen this time.

''The good thing is we got the best player in the world playing for us,'' Hill said. ''So I'm very excited about that. I don't got to get put out by him this year, which I did a lot in my career. So, I'm happy to be on the other side.''

 

[Cnotes53]

Armadillo: Friday's six-pack

Odds on NBA first round playoff series:

Warriors -$1,600, Spurs +$900

Raptors -$700, Wizards +$500

76ers -$550, Heat +$400

Blazers -$190, Pelicans +$160

Celtics -$145, Bucks +$125

Cavaliers -$700, Pacers +500

Thunder -$145, Jazz +125

Rockets -$4,000, Wolves +$1,400


**********

Armadillo: Friday's List of 13: Random stuff with weekend here??

13) After scoring 19 points in his NBA debut Tuesday, 32-year old Andre Ingram played 35:00 for Lakers Wednesday, was +23, best on team.

Funny how guys who have something to prove don?t mind playing back-to-back nights, while lot of guys who already struck it rich think they?re bigger than life and get soft.

Anyway, I hope Ingram gets an invite to the Las Vegas Summer League; he?s earned it. Ingram is also throwing out the first pitch at the Dodger game tonight.

12) Gametime temperature at Wrigley Field Thursday was 74 degrees; by the top of the 5th inning, it had dropped to 57 degrees.

11) The mayor of New York City is a Red Sox fan? How is that freakin? possible? Shouldn?t that disqualify him?

10) Indiana signed 6-4 Laci Johnson to play on its women?s volleyball team; she is the daughter of Hall of Fame pitcher Randy Johnson.

9) Michigan grad transfer quarterback Wilton Speight will transfer to UCLA, where he will play for Chip Kelly this fall.

8) There were four fans at the Kings-Golden Knights game Wednesday in Las Vegas sitting right by the LA bench; they were all dressed just like Elvis impersonators. Good stuff.

7) Oklahoma State football coach Mike Gundy will pay for the hiring of an additional armed officer at each of the 10 public schools in the Stillwater, OK area- this will cost Gundy $35,000, from now until the end of the school year. Gundy has two school-age children.

6) Gregg Popovich started coaching the San Antonio Spurs in 1996; since then, the Knicks have had 12 head coaches? next fall will be #13.

5) Orlando Magic fired coach Frank Vogel, who was 54-110 in two years as coach, after going 250-181 in six years with the Pacers. It helps to have good players, which Orlando doesn?t.

4) Doug Kern points out that the Cleveland Indians were held to four of fewer hits three games in row April 8-10, but they still won all three games, the first team to do that since the 1986 Texas Rangers. Only other team to do that was the ?63 San Francisco Giants.

3) If you?re into fantasy football, this might help:

Since start of 2013 season, on passes thrown 20+ yards downfield, DeSean Jackson has caught passes for a total of 2,255 yards, most in NFL; next highest is TY Hilton (2,213), AJ Green (2,060) and Antonio Brown (2,040).

2) Over the last 30 years in the NHL, the team that won the Presidents? Cup (most points during regular season) has gone on to win the Stanley Cup only seven times.

1? By way of contrast, since 1984, only one NBA team seeded lower than #3 has won the NBA title, the 1995 Houston Rockets. LA Kings won the Stanley Cup as the #8 seed in the West a few years ago.

 

[Cnotes53]

NBA
Dunkel

Saturday, April 14


San Antonio @ Golden State

Game 501-502
April 14, 2018 @ 3:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
San Antonio
119.637
Golden State
130.775
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Golden State
by 11
216
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Golden State
by 8
209 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Golden State
(-8); Over

Washington @ Toronto

Game 503-504
April 14, 2018 @ 5:35 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Washington
112.706
Toronto
122.923
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Toronto
by 10
209
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Toronto
by 7 1/2
211
Dunkel Pick:
Toronto
(-7 1/2); Under

Miami @ Philadelphia

Game 505-506
April 14, 2018 @ 8:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Miami
119.064
Philadelphia
124.112
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Philadelphia
by 5
213
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Philadelphia
by 7
210
Dunkel Pick:
Miami
(+7); Over

New Orleans @ Portland

Game 507-508
April 14, 2018 @ 10:35 pm

Dunkel Rating:
New Orleans
125.963
Portland
122.136
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New Orleans
by 4
201
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Portland
by 6
217 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
New Orleans
(+6); Under




NBA
Armadillo's Write-Up

Saturday, April 14


Spurs vs Warriors (0-0) 


No Curry or Leonard in this series. Spurs (47-35) had their worst record in Gregg Popovich?s 21 years as head coach; they won their first round playoff series 14 of last 17 years, but were favored in those. San Antonio lost eight of last nine games with Golden State; they?re 2-2 vs spread in last four visits to Oakland. Warriors (58-24) won their fewest games since 2014; they played in NBA Finals last three years. Spurs are 0-7 vs spread in last seven road games; their last road cover was March 8, a 110-107 (+11) loss here in Oakland. Warriors are 0-5 vs spread in last five home games.

Wizards vs Raptors (0-0)


Toronto (59-23) won most games in franchise history; they won first round series last two years, but have never been to NBA Finals. Raptors won their last four home games overall (2-1-1 vs spread). Washington is in playoffs for 4th time in five years; they won their last three first round series. Wizards are 3-7 in last ten games with Toronto, 3-2 vs spread in last five visits to Canada. Road team won five of last seven series games; under is 7-3 in last ten series games. Wizards lost six their last six road games (1-5 vs spread).

Heat vs 76ers (0-0)


Philadelphia won its last 16 games, longest winning streak ever going into playoffs; Sixers are in playoffs for first time since 2012- they lost four of last five first round series. Home side won last nine Miami-Philly games; Heat is 2-3 vs spread in last five games in this building. Three of last four series games stayed under total. 76ers? last loss was March 13; they?re 7-2 vs spread in last nine home games. Heat is in playoffs for 8th time in last ten years; they won last five first round series. Miami split its last ten games; they?re 1-2-1 vs spread in last four road games.

Pelicans vs Trailblazers (0-0)


New Orleans is in playoffs for first time since ?15 and only 2nd time in last seven years; they lost last three first round series- last time they won a playoff series was 2008. Pelicans won four of last six games with Portland; they?re 2-2 vs spread in last five visits to Oregon. New Orleans is without Cousins; they won/covered last five games overall (over 4-1), with wins at Oakland and the Clippers. Blazers are in playoffs for 5th straight year; they?re 2-8 in last ten first round series. Portland won its last three home games overall (2-1 vs spread).




NBA

Saturday, April 14

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

San Antonio Spurs
San Antonio is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
San Antonio is 10-5 SU in its last 15 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Antonio's last 5 games
San Antonio is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
San Antonio is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Antonio's last 5 games on the road
San Antonio is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Golden State
San Antonio is 1-8 SU in its last 9 games when playing Golden State
The total has gone OVER in 6 of San Antonio's last 9 games when playing Golden State
San Antonio is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Golden State
The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Antonio's last 6 games when playing on the road against Golden State
Golden State Warriors
Golden State is 6-15 ATS in its last 21 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Golden State's last 6 games
Golden State is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Golden State is 13-6 SU in its last 19 games at home
Golden State is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Golden State's last 5 games at home
Golden State is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing San Antonio
Golden State is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games when playing San Antonio
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Golden State's last 9 games when playing San Antonio
Golden State is 8-13-2 ATS in its last 23 games when playing at home against San Antonio
Golden State is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against San Antonio
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Golden State's last 6 games when playing at home against San Antonio


Washington Wizards
Washington is 6-13-1 ATS in its last 20 games
Washington is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Washington's last 6 games
Washington is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
Washington is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Washington is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Toronto
Washington is 3-8 SU in its last 11 games when playing Toronto
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Washington's last 11 games when playing Toronto
Washington is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Toronto
Washington is 6-12 SU in its last 18 games when playing on the road against Toronto
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Washington's last 5 games when playing on the road against Toronto
Toronto Raptors
Toronto is 3-10-1 ATS in its last 14 games
Toronto is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Toronto's last 6 games
Toronto is 2-5-1 ATS in its last 8 games at home
Toronto is 17-3 SU in its last 20 games at home
Toronto is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Washington
Toronto is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games when playing Washington
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Toronto's last 11 games when playing Washington
Toronto is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games when playing at home against Washington
Toronto is 12-6 SU in its last 18 games when playing at home against Washington
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Toronto's last 5 games when playing at home against Washington


Miami Heat
Miami is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games
Miami is 2-4-2 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
Miami is 2-12 SU in its last 14 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Miami's last 12 games on the road
Miami is 18-7 SU in its last 25 games when playing Philadelphia
Miami is 12-6 SU in its last 18 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
Miami is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Miami's last 7 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
Philadelphia 76ers
Philadelphia is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 games
Philadelphia is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 5 games
Philadelphia is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games at home
Philadelphia is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Philadelphia is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Miami
Philadelphia is 7-18 SU in its last 25 games when playing Miami
Philadelphia is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Miami
Philadelphia is 6-12 SU in its last 18 games when playing at home against Miami
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 7 games when playing at home against Miami


New Orleans Pelicans
New Orleans is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
New Orleans is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New Orleans's last 5 games
New Orleans is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 games on the road
New Orleans is 10-3 SU in its last 13 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of New Orleans's last 7 games on the road
New Orleans is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Portland
New Orleans is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Portland
New Orleans is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Portland
New Orleans is 2-12 SU in its last 14 games when playing on the road against Portland
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of New Orleans's last 9 games when playing on the road against Portland
Portland Trail Blazers
Portland is 15-5-2 ATS in its last 22 games
Portland is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Portland is 18-7 SU in its last 25 games
Portland is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
Portland is 16-2-2 ATS in its last 20 games at home
Portland is 21-3 SU in its last 24 games at home
Portland is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing New Orleans
Portland is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing New Orleans
Portland is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games when playing at home against New Orleans
Portland is 12-2 SU in its last 14 games when playing at home against New Orleans
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Portland's last 9 games when playing at home against New Orleans

 

[Cnotes53]

NBA
Long Sheet

Saturday, April 14

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SAN ANTONIO (47 - 35) at GOLDEN STATE (58 - 24) - 4/14/2018, 3:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN ANTONIO is 6-14 ATS (-9.4 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
SAN ANTONIO is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) in road games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season.
SAN ANTONIO is 6-17 ATS (-12.7 Units) in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 129-95 ATS (+24.5 Units) in April games since 1996.
GOLDEN STATE is 56-35 ATS (+17.5 Units) in all playoff games since 1996.
GOLDEN STATE is 24-8 ATS (+15.2 Units) in the first round of the playoffs since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 1045-916 ATS (+37.4 Units) in all games since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 142-108 ATS (+23.2 Units) after a loss by 10 points or more since 1996.
GOLDEN STATE is 33-46 ATS (-17.6 Units) in all games this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 32-41 ATS (-13.1 Units) as a favorite this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 15-24 ATS (-11.4 Units) in home games this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 14-27 ATS (-15.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 4-16 ATS (-13.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
GOLDEN STATE is 9-6 against the spread versus SAN ANTONIO over the last 3 seasons
GOLDEN STATE is 11-4 straight up against SAN ANTONIO over the last 3 seasons
8 of 15 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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WASHINGTON (43 - 39) at TORONTO (59 - 23) - 4/14/2018, 5:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 36-44 ATS (-12.4 Units) in all games this season.
WASHINGTON is 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) in road games against Atlantic division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 68-49 ATS (+14.1 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 3 seasons.
TORONTO is 195-247 ATS (-76.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
TORONTO is 6-5 against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
TORONTO is 8-3 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
8 of 11 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MIAMI (44 - 38) at PHILADELPHIA (52 - 30) - 4/14/2018, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHILADELPHIA is 48-34 ATS (+10.6 Units) in all games this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 33-22 ATS (+8.8 Units) as a favorite this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 27-13 ATS (+12.7 Units) in home games this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 22-12 ATS (+8.8 Units) in the second half of the season this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in home games on Saturday games this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) when playing with 2 days rest over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) against Southeast division opponents this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 60-41 ATS (+14.9 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 20-10 ATS (+9.0 Units) after a win by 10 points or more this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 29-17 ATS (+10.3 Units) after scoring 115 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
MIAMI is 90-70 ATS (+13.0 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 54-35 ATS (+15.5 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 49-30 ATS (+16.0 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 38-24 ATS (+11.6 Units) in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 43-30 ATS (+10.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 24-8 ATS (+15.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season.
MIAMI is 22-11 ATS (+9.9 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
PHILADELPHIA is 6-5 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI is 7-4 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
6 of 11 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NEW ORLEANS (48 - 34) at PORTLAND (49 - 33) - 4/14/2018, 10:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ORLEANS is 44-71 ATS (-34.1 Units) in road games after a win by 10 points or more since 1996.
PORTLAND is 45-30 ATS (+12.0 Units) in all games this season.
PORTLAND is 29-19 ATS (+8.1 Units) as a favorite this season.
PORTLAND is 23-14 ATS (+7.6 Units) in home games this season.
PORTLAND is 20-9 ATS (+10.1 Units) in the second half of the season this season.
PORTLAND is 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season this season.
PORTLAND is 24-15 ATS (+7.5 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season.
PORTLAND is 15-3 ATS (+11.7 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.
PORTLAND is 24-14 ATS (+8.6 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season.
PORTLAND is 15-3 ATS (+11.7 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.
NEW ORLEANS is 45-36 ATS (+5.4 Units) in all games this season.
NEW ORLEANS is 26-15 ATS (+9.5 Units) in road games this season.
NEW ORLEANS is 15-7 ATS (+7.3 Units) in road games after scoring 115 points or more this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
PORTLAND is 6-6 against the spread versus NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
PORTLAND is 6-6 straight up against NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
6 of 12 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Sunday, April 15

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MILWAUKEE (44 - 38) at BOSTON (55 - 27) - 4/15/2018, 1:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MILWAUKEE is 74-91 ATS (-26.1 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 376-456 ATS (-125.6 Units) in the second half of the season since 1996.
MILWAUKEE is 201-247 ATS (-70.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season since 1996.
BOSTON is 48-30 ATS (+15.0 Units) in all games this season.
BOSTON is 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent this season.
BOSTON is 11-1 ATS (+9.9 Units) off an upset win as an underdog this season.
BOSTON is 24-14 ATS (+8.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
BOSTON is 27-15 ATS (+10.5 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season.
MILWAUKEE is 135-98 ATS (+27.2 Units) in road games against Atlantic division opponents since 1996.
MILWAUKEE is 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) in road games after allowing 115 points or more over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
BOSTON is 7-4 against the spread versus MILWAUKEE over the last 3 seasons
BOSTON is 7-4 straight up against MILWAUKEE over the last 3 seasons
7 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

INDIANA (48 - 34) at CLEVELAND (50 - 32) - 4/15/2018, 3:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
INDIANA is 47-35 ATS (+8.5 Units) in all games this season.
INDIANA is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in April games over the last 2 seasons.
INDIANA is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) on Sunday games this season.
INDIANA is 33-18 ATS (+13.2 Units) vs. division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
INDIANA is 74-51 ATS (+17.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
INDIANA is 23-12 ATS (+9.8 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season.
CLEVELAND is 32-49 ATS (-21.9 Units) in all games this season.
CLEVELAND is 19-43 ATS (-28.3 Units) as a favorite this season.
CLEVELAND is 13-27 ATS (-16.7 Units) in home games this season.
CLEVELAND is 20-34 ATS (-17.4 Units) vs. division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) after a loss by 10 points or more this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
INDIANA is 11-4 against the spread versus CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
CLEVELAND is 11-5 straight up against INDIANA over the last 3 seasons
9 of 15 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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UTAH (48 - 34) at OKLAHOMA CITY (48 - 34) - 4/15/2018, 6:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
UTAH is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) on Sunday games over the last 3 seasons.
UTAH is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
UTAH is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 33-47 ATS (-18.7 Units) in all games this season.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 24-41 ATS (-21.1 Units) as a favorite this season.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 15-24 ATS (-11.4 Units) in home games this season.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 19-35 ATS (-19.5 Units) in home games in April games since 1996.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 2-14 ATS (-13.4 Units) vs. division opponents this season.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 7-15 ATS (-9.5 Units) after a win by 10 points or more this season.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 16-25 ATS (-11.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
OKLAHOMA CITY is 7-4 against the spread versus UTAH over the last 3 seasons
OKLAHOMA CITY is 10-2 straight up against UTAH over the last 3 seasons
9 of 12 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MINNESOTA (47 - 35) at HOUSTON (65 - 17) - 4/15/2018, 9:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MINNESOTA is 372-436 ATS (-107.6 Units) in the second half of the season since 1996.
HOUSTON is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) against Northwest division opponents this season.
HOUSTON is 118-88 ATS (+21.2 Units) after 3 or more consecutive unders since 1996.
HOUSTON is 37-50 ATS (-18.0 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in April games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
MINNESOTA is 6-5 against the spread versus HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON is 10-1 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
8 of 11 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

 

[Cnotes53]

The one basketball betting trend you have to know for the NBA Playoffs
Jason Logan

Betting on NBA playoff teams down 0-2 to cover the first-half spread in Game 3 has produced a 64-32-7 ATS record in the postseason since 2007.

Desperate times call for desperate measures. And that?s what makes this particular NBA Playoffs betting trend so profitable.

If you ran in NBA betting circles on Twitter last spring, you may have stumbled upon this incredible postseason spot bet that?s been turning out 67 percent winners over the past 11 years.

The set-up is simple enough: when a NBA team falls behind 0-2 in a playoff series, bet on them to cover the first-half pointspread in Game 3.

If you did that in 2017, you would have walked away with a 9-3 ATS record. And if you were privy to this trend the past three postseasons, you?d be riding a 28-3 ATS windfall with that first-half situational system going 10-0 ATS in 2016 and 9-0 ATS in 2015. In fact, betting on a team down 0-2 to cover the first-half spread in Game 3 is 64-32-7 ATS in the NBA Playoffs since 2007.

The best part about this trend is that there?s a strong narrative to back it up. Unlike some betting trends, that have no rhyme or reason, basketball bettors can easily connect the dots when it comes to the motivation behind those trailing teams and the value that lies in their odds for the first 24 minutes of Game 3. That narrative is definitely not lost on bookmakers either.

"Flat out simple to understand, teams that are down 0-2 come out and play with far more desperation than they do for other games," Peter Childs, supervisor of risk management for Sportsbook.ag, told us during last year?s playoffs.

"Teams can't afford to go down 0-3, so in must-win spots like being down 0-2, they come out blazing. And for the team they're playing, they're up 2-0 in the series. They are fat and happy and don't come out with the same urgency as their counterparts."

Thanks to the lack of parity in the NBA, basketball bettors were blessed with this opportunity six times in the opening round of the playoffs last year, and three more times in the conference semifinals. It fizzled out in the conference finals and NBA Finals, which both saw three teams fall behind 0-2 but came up short versus the first-half spread in Game 3.

With the average juice on a first-half bet being -110, a $100 wager on each of those 103 qualified situations for this remarkable trend would have returned $2,304 in winnings since 2007. And looking at just the past three NBA postseason, followers of this first-half system would be up $2,218.

NBA bettors will want to keep an eye out for this situation to set itself up in the opening round of the playoffs, with action tipping off this weekend and Game 3?s scheduled for April 19, 20 and 21.

 

[Cnotes53]

Finally: Miami's Ellington has a big role
April 13, 2018

MIAMI (AP) The last time Wayne Ellington played any meaningful minutes in a postseason game was nine years ago.

At the Final Four.

Ellington was the Most Outstanding Player of the 2009 NCAA Tournament after leading North Carolina to the national title. But since turning pro, postseasons have marked the start of vacations for Ellington, who has been in only two NBA playoff games, logging 13 1/2 minutes - all in the fourth quarters of blowouts.

That's about to change.

Coming off a record-setting regular season, Ellington will play a vital role for No. 6 seed Miami in an Eastern Conference quarterfinal series that starts Saturday in his hometown of Philadelphia against the third-seeded 76ers.

''It's so sweet the way it's coming,'' Ellington said. ''I don't want to get religious, but I really feel like it's God's plan the way that everything's worked out, where I ended up at and where I'm headed to. I'm appreciative. After all this time, now to be here, I don't think a player could be more grateful. You couldn't script this.''

Ellington set Miami's single-season 3-point record with 227, and also set an NBA record for 3-pointers by a reserve with 218 (he made nine in his two appearances as a Heat starter this season). He's going into the postseason coming off the best game of his pro career, a 32-point night that tied the franchise mark for scoring by a reserve in a game.

As Ellington goes, Miami goes: In his two Heat seasons, they are 34-7 when he makes at least half of his 3-point tries, 43-54 when he does not.

''None of them come easy,'' Heat guard Dwyane Wade said. ''He has to work for his shots, he really does. It is great to have a guy that has that ability. When he gets hot, there's not much you can do about it.''

Before Wednesday's regular-season finale victory over Toronto, which sealed the No. 6 seed for Miami, Ellington was slumping - shooting 14 for 48 from 3-point range in those games, or 29 percent. The Heat gave players Tuesday off as a needed rest day, and coach Erik Spoelstra was lured out of his office at one point by the sounds of dribbling and sneaker-squeaking on the practice floor.

It was Ellington, putting himself through a 45-minute workout with Heat assistant coach Octavio De La Grana. Their routines, whether it's on an off day or a half-hour before game time, are always the same: cut, catch, shot, swish, over and over and over. And as he watched, Spoelstra found himself simultaneously worried and impressed.

''I almost thought it was too much on a day before a game,'' Spoelstra said. ''But that's the vision of a champion before you're a champion, drenched in sweat, totally exhausted, empty gym with a coach, working your (butt) off.''

The result: Ellington was 8 for 12 from deep on Wednesday, leading the Heat rally to a win over the top seed in the East.

What happened Tuesday was not uncommon. The Heat didn't make the playoffs last season, and Ellington was back in the gym about a week after the regular season ended - even though at the time, there was no guarantee he'd be back with Miami this season. He would put himself through intense workouts, sometimes to the point where De La Grana would quietly suggest he take the next day off and enjoy life.

The Heat locker room is filled with hard workers, but teammates say Ellington stands out.

''Wayne's like my right-hand man,'' rookie center Bam Adebayo said. ''He does everything that he needs to do behind closed doors. He takes care of his body, eats right, and I'm learning from him.''

And now, the playoff chance is finally here for Ellington.

He sat at his locker for a few postgame minutes after the regular season ended, his thoughts drifting back to that Final Four run and championship moment.

''Up until now, that's been my best experience as a player,'' Ellington said. ''I'm looking forward to trumping that.''

 

[Cnotes53]

Donovan Mitchell heads into the playoffs
April 13, 2018

Over the course of Donovan Mitchell's outstanding rookie season with Utah, Portland star Damian Lillard has become something of a mentor, regularly sending texts of encouragement.

So Lillard really didn't mind when Mitchell was the one who broke his rookie 3-point record.

''He's had a great season, not just for a rookie but for a guard in the NBA. I'm really happy for him,'' Lillard said. ''We've had some communication throughout the season. I like to see a guy that's humble, a guy that works hard. Not many people were talking about him coming out of the draft. He wasn't the talk of the draft.

''But he just came out and he just showed. That's what makes me a fan of him.''

Mitchell surpassed Lillard's mark of 185 3-pointers on Tuesday night in Utah's 119-79 victory over the Golden State Warriors.

The next night, the two players were face-to-face in the final regular-season game. Portland claimed a 102-93 win on its home court, sending the Trail Blazers into a first-round playoff series against the New Orleans Pelicans, and the Jazz to a postseason matchup with the Oklahoma City Thunder.

Mitchell, 21, described the end of the season as fun, with both the record and Utah's push for the playoffs. The Jazz strung together an 11-game winning streak starting in late January to begin a run in which they lost just twice in a 23-game span.

''The kid inside me has really enjoyed it,'' Mitchell said. ''I got the Defensive Player of the Year and Coach of the Year on my team and we're the No. 5 seed and nobody thought we'd even be in the playoffs. So I'm excited to get this thing going.''

Utah coach Quin Snyder said he was always confident in Mitchell's ability, even back in early November when the rookie went 3 for 21 from the floor in a 104-97 loss to Philadelphia.

''As much as anything, it wasn't Donovan's play. I mean it was - coupled with his mental makeup. You could tell this was a guy who was fearless, who was not afraid of the moment. And I think the Philly game, what he did the next game, how he moved the ball, his decisions were better.''

Snyder said the Jazz staff focused on Mitchell's progress and knew the results would come for the 6-foot-3 shooting guard out of Louisville.

''He wasn't worried about starting. He just wanted to play, and he wanted to play well,'' the coach said.

Overall, Mitchell led Utah during the regular season with an average of 20.5 points a game, and he led all NBA rookies with an average of 23 points in March (ninth overall). He's the first rookie to lead his team in scoring and into the playoffs since Carmelo Anthony with Denver.

On Thursday, Mitchell was named the NBA's Rookie of the Month for March and the first part of April. It was the fourth time he'd earned the award this season.

He has 187 3-pointers heading into the postseason, which starts for the Jazz on Sunday in Oklahoma City.

Mitchell and Ben Simmons are the top candidates for the NBA's Rookie of the Year award (which Lillard won in 2013). The two have gotten into something of a war of words lately, with Simmons telling ESPN that he'd vote for himself: ''If you look at the numbers, you'll see. People who know the game know.''

Mitchell responded by trolling Simmons with a pair of sweatshirts. The first one - worn before Tuesday's game against the Warriors - was emblazoned with the definition of the word rookie. The second, which he wore into the Moda Center on Wednesday, exclaimed simply, ''Rookie?''

Simmons was the first overall pick by Philadelphia in the 2016 draft but broke his foot and missed his entire first season. So technically he counts as a rookie this season.

Back in February, Lillard made his endorsement of Mitchell clear: ''I think he should be Rookie of the Year, for sure. Not just because of his numbers, but his impact on their team. He's basically leading them. It's special to see a rookie be able to do what he's doing out there.''

Utah teammate Rudy Gobert said Mitchell has already proven his worth to the Jazz.

''Whether he wins it or not, I don't think it really matters. In five years we won't care if he won it or not. He showed that he's poised to be a superstar in this league and he will be,'' Gobert said.

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