Cnotes53 2017 NBA Best Bets-Trends-News Thru Playoffs !

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Giannis reaches new heights for Bucks
April 13, 2018


MILWAUKEE (AP) Giannis Antetokounmpo's meme-worthy scowl started with a look in the mirror.

The Milwaukee Bucks All-Star was an NBA rookie then, trying to come up with a look he could flash after making a big play. Antetokounmpo thought about the glare his mother would throw his way when he misbehaved as a child. It took about a week to perfect as he struck poses in front of the mirror.

''Now it comes easy. You've just got to put your nose up like this,'' said Antetokounmpo, wrinkling his face after a recent practice.

It can look so much more intimidating on the court.

As Antetokounmpo's skills reach new heights, so does his confidence as he enters his third career postseason. The Bucks open their first-round series against the Celtics on Sunday in Boston.

''You don't think. It's just second nature. You're just playing now,'' Antetokounmpo said. ''There are points when you're young, you're scared to make the wrong decision late.''

This is no longer the gangly, 6-foot-11 forward who would defer during his rookie season in 2013-14. He's a go-to player in the fourth quarter, a do-it-all forward who can ignite the crowd with a rim-rattling dunk or momentum-changing block.

''That's why I think the best players late, I think they have that mindset. They're not scared to take big shots, they're not scared to turn the ball over ... and they're just in general not scared about basketball,'' he said. ''It's something that they've done their whole lives.''

It has been quite the journey from awkward 18-year-old rookie to NBA stardom. Former general manager John Hammond, now with the Orlando Magic, scouted Antetokounmpo in the player's native Greece before drafting him in the first round in 2013 with the 15th overall pick.

Some NBA fans questioned the move. Freakish athleticism and a 7-foot-3 wingspan offered the promise of being a tough matchup on both ends of the floor.

Boy, did the gamble pay off .

''I think one thing that is really important is to never underestimate or undervalue the things that he does,'' Bucks coach Joe Prunty said last month after the forward scored 28 points in a win over the New York Knicks.

Sometimes, it takes Antetokounmpo's absence to make that point stick.

On April 1, Milwaukee led by 18 midway through the fourth quarter in Denver before Antetokounmpo fouled out with 3:43 left. At the time, the Bucks were up by 10 and Antetokounmpo had 18 points and 12 rebounds. They ended up losing in overtime .

Two days later, the Bucks were in another tight game at home against Boston. Playing with a sore right ankle, Antetokounmpo came up clutch after chasing down Jaylen Brown from behind, swatting what looked like an easy layup against the backboard with 53 seconds remaining. The Bucks held on for the win .

''Because my ankle hurt, I wasn't even being `Giannis Giannis,''' Antetokounmpo recalled with a mischievous grin. ''I wasn't sprinting down the court. I was just jogging down the court.''

Key positives for Milwaukee from that victory were runs of 11-3 and 16-4 with Antetokounmpo on the bench for rest. In crunch time, Prunty can also put three other proven scorers on the floor with Antetokounmpo in forwards Khris Middleton and Jabari Parker, along with quick point guard Eric Bledsoe.

''Just taking attention, making (the defense) know, `OK, I'm here, you guys come to me.' If you guys don't come to me, I'm going to go,'' he said. ''If you guys come to me, I'm going to make the right pass.''

That mentality is another sign of Antetokounmpo's growth over his five-year NBA career.

A sense of humor that borders on cheesy hasn't changed.

Antetokounmpo the last few years has opened Bucks preseason media day by taking the microphone to deliver a cringe-worthy joke that can make teammates shake their heads.

''He was more funny back in the day when he was 18 years old,'' quipped center John Henson. ''But for the most part, he's a good dude, a funny dude who has his own sense of humor. We love having him around.''

That scowl? It's just for fun. He doesn't need to show it, nor does he keep count. In fact, Antetokounmpo said, he's trying to smile more.

''Because if you're going to do this for 20 years, you don't want to have 10 years of sadness and 10 years of happiness,'' he said. ''You want to have as much nice moments and memories as you can, you know?''
 

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Saturday?s 6-pack

Updated odds to win the NBA title:

Golden State Warriors 7-5

Houston Rockets 9-5

Cleveland Cavaliers 17-10

Toronto Raptors 13-1

Philadelphia 76ers 16-1

Oklahoma City Thunder 40-1

Quote of the Day
?It can be a tough environment. It?s very businesslike, and at times it can be cold. Everything in New England is predicated on performance. It?s a place where people sometimes treat you differently based on how you practiced that day or how you answered a question in a meeting. One day, you could walk around the facility feeling like a Pro Bowler ? the next, like you?re about to get cut.?
Ex-Patriot Nate Solder, now a Giant

Saturday?s quiz
What team did Kevin Durant begin his NBA career with?

Friday?s quiz
Phil Mickelson?s brother/caddy used to be the golf coach at Arizona State.

Thursday?s quiz
Chip Kelly was the Philadelphia Eagles? coach before Doug Pederson.

********************

Saturday?s List of 13: Clearing out a cluttered mind??

13) Thinking about the NFL Draft and Baker Mayfield? I know there?s a lot more to it than just the QB, but Oklahoma Sooners averaged 8.29 yards/play last year, best in country. Next best was UCF at 7.46 yards/play. Sam Darnold?s USC offense was 15th on the list, at 5.56 yards/play.

12) Jets traded three #2 draft picks to move up from #6 to #3 in the draft, so everyone?s job is on the line when they make that selection in 12 days.

Guess it is odd that the Giants/Jets will be under intense scrutiny in a draft held in Dallas.

11) Atlanta Falcons games in 2017 went under the total by an average of 6.84 ppg, after a 2016 season whey went over the total almost every week.

Detroit Lions games went over by an average of 4.34 ppg, the most in the NFL.

10) Mets lost both their catchers to injury this week; Travis d?Arnaud tore his UCL, Kevin Plawecki broke his hand. When you?re excited about having Jose Lobaton on your roster, it is time to trade for a catcher.

9) Chick-fil-A is coming to New York City, which means it is only 148 miles from Armadillo World HQ. Actually, there is a Chick-fil-A in Albany Airport, but you have to go thru security to get to it, so only time I can eat there is when I fly to Las Vegas.

8) Dallas Cowboys sent WR Dez Bryant packing, which is what happens when you don?t run as fast as you used to. He has a reputation as a bad clubhouse guy; we?ll see where he catches on.

7) Paul Casey missed the cut at Harbourtown this week, ending his streak of 29 consecutive cuts made, which was the longest active streak on Tour.

6) Braves 4, Cubs 0? I know its early, I know the weather has mostly sucked so far, but Chicago is 6-7 and their lineup looks very bland. Anthony Rizzo is expected back next week

5) Much-improved baseball announcer; Braves? TV guy Chip Caray has gotten so much better over the years; he is fun to listen to now. He is a little ornery about instant replay, but working with Joe Simpson, they?re a good team.

4) As the dust clears on Lonzo Ball?s rookie year in the NBA, we see that Ball averaged 10.2 ppg, 7.2 assists, 6.9 rebounds and 1.7 steals while shooting 36% from the floor, 30.5% from beyond the arc, while missing 30 of 82 games? he played 34.2 mpg in the 50 games he did play.

3) Seahawks signed Sebastian Janikowski to be their new kicker; he?ll see his old team Oakland next season. Raiders will see their old punter Marquette King twice a year since he is now a Denver Bronco.

2) Here in Albany, Siena gave basketball coach Jimmy Patsos $350K to take a hike after five years with the Saints. Patsos was 77-92 at Siena, 47-51 in MAAC games- he didn?t make the NCAA tournament. He did make the NCAA?s once in nine years as coach of Loyola, MD.

To get out of paying most of what they owed Patsos (he had 3 years left on his contract), the school dredged up some crummy things he did within the team? he was verbally abusive to a team manager, among other things.

Rumored replacements for Patsos: LeMoyne coach Patrick Beilein and Syracuse assistant Gerry McNamara.

1? White Sox-Twins in Minnesota was snowed out Friday night and prospects for Saturday don?t look so good, either. Why didn?t they put a retractable dome on their new ballpark, like Milwaukee did?
 
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10 things to know about the 2018 NBA playoffs
April 13, 2018


With the NBA playoffs starting Saturday, here are 10 things to know:

LEBRON'S STREAK

Pacers fans, avert your eyes.

LeBron James hasn't experienced losing a first-round game in nearly six years.

James' teams have won 21 consecutive opening-round contests, a streak that started in Game 5 of the Miami-New York series in 2012. Combining his Cleveland and Miami years, James' teams have won 46 of their last 51 first-round games.

James and the Cavs play Indiana in the first round this season.

MORE LEBRON

James could set a slew of NBA records in these playoffs.

He's already the all-time postseason leader in points, is seven steals from passing Scottie Pippen (395) for the playoff record in that department, is four shots from passing Kobe Bryant (4,499) for another career postseason mark.

Depending on how long Cleveland's postseason lasts, James also has a shot at passing Ray Allen (385) for career postseason 3-pointers; he's 55 shy of taking over the No. 1 spot there. And if the Cavs make a deep run James could also catch Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (2,356) for most field goals.

KERR BATTLE

Golden State coach Steve Kerr is estranged from his son.

Temporarily.

Nick Kerr works for the San Antonio Spurs - the Warriors' opponent in a Western Conference first round series. This has long been a source of great amusement for Spurs coach Gregg Popovich, who coached Steve Kerr as a player and remains close with him now. Popovich has said that Nick Kerr is the subject of additional security screenings at work, just to ensure he's not a spy for the Warriors. (No, Pop wasn't serious.)

Steve Kerr says he and his son are ''recusing ourselves'' from family interaction during the series.

''I think they already confiscated Nick's phone,'' he said.

SO CLOSE ...

You have to feel for Omri Casspi and DeMarcus Cousins.

No active players have appeared in more regular-season games without any getting any postseason run than Casspi and Cousins. Casspi has played in 552 games, Cousins 535. And both were right on the cusp of ending their droughts this year; Casspi was waived by Golden State because it needed a roster spot once he hurt his ankle, and Cousins tore his Achilles' to end his season with New Orleans.

Tom Van Arsdale (929) is the record-holder for most regular-season games without seeing postseason play, followed by Otto Moore (682), Nate Williams (642), Sebastian Telfair (564), then Casspi and Cousins.

GLOBAL GAME

These NBA playoffs will be more global than ever.

A record 62 international players, from a record 33 countries, are headed to the postseason. Every playoff team has at least one international player on its roster, with Utah and Philadelphia both featuring seven and Boston, Toronto and San Antonio six each.

France and Australia lead the way in international representation in these playoffs, with seven players from each nation making it to the second season. Canada and Spain both have four.

STREAKING SPURS

This wasn't San Antonio's best season; the Spurs got ''only'' the seventh seed in the West.

But their streak lives.

This is the 21st consecutive season the Spurs have made the playoffs, one shy of matching Philadelphia for the longest NBA run.

To put their current streak in perspective, the soonest any other NBA club will be able to say that it has a 21-season postseason streak will be 2033.

Golden State and Houston have the second-longest active postseason streaks, at six. Portland and Toronto have been to five in a row, and four teams in this postseason - Miami, Minnesota, Philadelphia and New Orleans - didn't qualify for the playoffs a year ago.

MONEY MATTERS

Portland and Philadelphia have already won a little extra money. By winning on the season's final night to ensure each finished alone in third in their respective conferences, the Trail Blazers and 76ers picked up another $64,842 from the NBA's record $20 million playoff pool this season.

Playoff teams split payouts from the pool, often toward bonuses for players and staff.

Houston is assured $1,380,065 from the pool so far. Toronto is assured $803,222 while Boston and Golden State are up to $704,169. Every playoff team will receive at least $298,485 - and the payouts keep rising as teams keep advancing.

The NBA champion will claim at least $4,782,438; the runner-up, at least $3,587,489.

START FAST

Of the 15 series played in the 2017 postseason, Game 1 winners ultimately won the best-of-seven 12 times. That 80 percent clip is consistent with the league norm.

Since the 1983-84 season, winners of Game 1 have gone on to win the series 79 percent of the time. But that guarantees nothing - over the last seven years, four teams have lost Game 1 of the NBA Finals and gone on to win the championship anyway.

DEFEND HOME COURT

Home-court ''advantage'' really didn't exist in the 2017 playoffs.

Road teams won 43 percent of the postseason games played last year, and it's reasonable to think such a success rate might be in play again this year. The 16 teams in these playoffs combined to win 351 games on the road in the regular season, or 54 percent.

Ordinarily, road teams win playoff games about 35 percent of the time.

FINALLY, MINNESOTA

The Timberwolves are in the playoffs for the first time since 2004.

During that 14-year drought, the franchise had nine different coaches, used 131 different players, 92 different starters, took 93,776 field-goal attempts and scored 112,664 points.

Here might be the best illustration of how long the postseason wait was for Minnesota: Only 12 of the 59 players taken in the 2004 draft were still in the NBA this season. The only player the Timberwolves drafted in the year of their last playoff run was Blake Stepp, who never made the NBA but played at least three times in the World Series of Poker.
 

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First Round Series Odds
April 13, 2018


Home Team listed first - Best of 7 Games (2-2-1-1-1)
(Opening Odds in parentheses)

Eastern Conference - First Round

Toronto vs. Washington

Raptors (-650)
Wizards (+480)

Boston vs. Milwaukee
Celtics (-150)
Bucks (+130)

Philadelphia vs. Miami
76ers (-550)
Heat (+420)

Cleveland vs. Indiana
Cavaliers (-650)
Pacers (+480)

Western Conference - First Round

Houston vs. Minnesota

Rockets (-7000)
Timberwolves (+2000)

Golden State vs. San Antonio
Warriors (-1500)
Spurs (+900)

Portland vs. New Orleans
Trail Blazers (-225)
Pelicans (+190)

Oklahoma City vs. Utah
Thunder (-135)
Jazz (+115)

Exact Game Props - Prior to Series (4/14/18)

Toronto vs. Washington

Boston vs. Milwaukee
7 Games Celtics Win 3/1
5 Games Celtics Win 4/1
6 Games Bucks Win 4/1
6 Games Celtics Win 5/1
7 Games Bucks Win 5/1
5 Games Bucks Win 10/1
4 Games Celtics Win 14/1
4 Games Bucks Win 20/1

Philadelphia vs. Miami
5 Games 76ers Win 5/2
7 Games 76ers Win 3/1
6 Games 76ers Win 4/1
4 Games 76ers Win 6/1
6 Games Heat Win 6/1
7 Games Heat Win 8/1
5 Games Heat Win 20/1
4 Games Heat Win 40/1

Cleveland vs. Indiana
5 Games Cavaliers Win 12/5
7 Games Cavaliers Win 7/2
6 Games Cavaliers Win 19/5
4 Games Cavaliers Win 5/1
6 Games Pacers Win 8/1
7 Games Pacers Win 10/1
5 Games Pacers Win 20/1
4 Games Pacers Win 40/1

Houston vs. Minnesota
5 Games Rockets Win 5/4
4 Games Rockets Win 8/5
6 Games Rockets Win 9/2
7 Games Rockets Win 7/1
7 Games Twolves Win 30/1
6 Games Twolves Win 50/1
5 Games Twolves Win 100/1
4 Games Twolves Win 200/1

Golden State vs. San Antonio
5 Games Warriors Win 17/10
4 Games Warriors Win 14/5
6 Games Warriors Win 3/1
7 Games Warriors Win 5/1
6 Games Spurs Win 12/1
7 Games Spurs Win 15/1
5 Games Spurs Win 30/1
4 Games Spurs Win 75/1

Portland vs. New Orleans
7 Games Blazers Win 13/5
5 Games Blazers Win 7/2
6 Games Blazers Win 9/2
6 Games Pelicans Win 9/2
7 Games Pelicans Win 13/2
4 Games Blazers Win 10/1
5 Games Pelicans Win 10/1
4 Games Pelicans Win 25/1

Oklahoma City vs. Utah
6 Games Jazz Win 7/2
7 Games Thunder Win 18/5
5 Games Thunder Win 5/1
6 Games Thunder Win 11/2
7 Games Jazz Win 11/2
5 Games Jazz Win 7/1
4 Games Thunder Win 14/1
4 Games Jazz Win 15/1


Odds Subject to Change - Updated 4.13.18
 

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NBA releases playoff pool of 36 refs
April 13, 2018


MIAMI (AP) It took all 1,230 regular-season games to decide which 16 teams were going to the NBA playoffs.

Same goes for picking the 36 playoff-bound referees.

The NBA on Friday revealed the officials selected to work the opening round of the playoffs that start this weekend. The league got there with a process including everything from a study of analytics, ratings filed by teams and coaches, the assessments of retired veteran referees and much more.

''It's definitely a different world to be a part of those who are doing the deciding, instead of those that are being decided upon,'' said longtime referee Monty McCutchen, who left the floor this season to become an NBA vice president. ''And there's a certain growth pattern for me in that regard, having to learn new skill sets and new ways of sort of approaching it.''

The five active officials with the most playoff experience are all headed back to the postseason this year: Ron Garretson, Ken Mauer, Mike Callahan, Derrick Stafford and Scott Foster have combined to work nearly 1,000 playoff games.

There are three first-time referees selected in Kevin Cutler, Karl Lane and Kevin Scott. If form for rookie playoff refs holds, they'll do no more than a handful of games.

''Like in most professions you're given what you can handle at the time - well, you're not given it, you've earned this opportunity that we want you to experience,'' McCutchen said. ''I think it is important to point out someone getting in their first year not going to be working 14 of our playoff games. There's a developmental stage here that they have shown an excellence that warrants them being a part of this.''

Most of the 12 referees who worked last season's NBA Finals are back in this year's playoffs, the exceptions being McCutchen and Danny Crawford, both of whom have retired from officiating.

Courtney Kirkland, who was taken off the floor for a week this season after an incident with Golden State's Shaun Livingston , was selected for the postseason ref roster.

''Are they exhibiting the proper amounts of courage and strength without arrogance? Are they showing humility without weakness? Are they showing the proper amount of resoluteness and firmness to withstand crowd pressure?'' McCutchen said, listing some of the things that he and others consider when deciding who gets the playoff call. ''Those are important aspects to being an effective referee.''

The NBA has been stressing better relationships between referees and players for months, and teams do provide some of the feedback that goes into the evaluation process for choosing which officials make the playoffs.

That process used to determine the first-round pool remains in play, as the group gets pared down for subsequent playoff rounds.

''Each referee has a dashboard of thousands of decisions that they're rated on,'' McCutchen said. ''And that gives a very clear picture of where people are being successful.''
 

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Heat look to upset 76ers
April 13, 2018


No. 6 Miami Heat at No. 3 Philadelphia 76ers Series Preview

The most intriguing team to watch in the early portion of the playoffs will be the Philadelphia 76ers. A scorching hot finish to the season elevated Philly to the No. 3 seed in the Eastern Conference, as ?The Process? finally paid dividends. It is hard to know what to expect from such a young and inexperienced team, but the oddsmakers certainly believe in Philadelphia?s staying power.

It is a sizable favorite to take care of business in the first round of the postseason against the No. 6 seed Miami Heat. The Cleveland Cavaliers are the favorites to once again emerge from the East and make it to the NBA Finals, while the top-seeded Toronto Raptors are looked upon as their main competition.

But the 76ers are a darkhorse that has a lot of potential and will aim to keep the pedal to the floor in this first-round series against Miami in NBA basketball gambling.

Game 1 of this NBA Playoff Series will be held at 8 p.m. ET on Saturday, April 14, 2018 at the Wells Fargo Center Philadelphia in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. The game will be shown nationally on ESPN.

We'll have NBA odds at BookMaker.eu available for every game of the 2018 NBA Playoffs.

Odds Analysis

The 76ers enter this series as the -520 favorite to advance to the second round. The Heat is listed as the +370 underdog. Miami is getting more than 57 percent of the action to pull off the upset at that price.

Philadelphia is a 7-point favorite in the first game of the series. The 76ers are getting nearly 64 percent of the action to cover that spread. Miami is the +249 underdog on the moneyline while Philadelphia is the -305 favorite. The scoring total for this contest is 212 points, with the ?over? the more popular choice.

The 76ers are listed as +1849 to win the championship, as the oddsmakers are giving them respect. The Heat are longshots at +23000.

Injury Report

Philadelphia big man Joel Embiid recently donned a mask as he continues to recover from an orbital fracture, but is unlikely to play in the first game of the series. Even so, if the 76ers can get him back relatively soon, he figures to have a big-time effect on the outcome.

Embiid is averaging 22.9 points and 11.0 rebounds on the season as he has quickly blossomed into one of the NBA?s most talented big men. Injuries have stymied him often but Embiid seems close to a return. If he can seamlessly integrate it would not be a surprise to see the 76ers make a nice playoff run in the East.

Key Stat

16. That is Philadelphia?s current winning streak. The 76ers looked really sharp at the end of the regular season, even though they were missing one of their biggest playmakers in Embiid.

Philadelphia put an exclamation point on the season with its 35-point win against the Bucks in the final game of the season and will look to ride that momentum into the postseason. The 76ers, who rank seventh in the league for points per game, scored 120 points or more in seven of those final 16 wins and didn?t dip below 100 points in an of the victories.

Among the most impressive wins collected in that late push were victories against the Cavs and the Timberwolves. It will be interesting to see if the 76ers can maintain that same intensity for the postseason, starting with this series.

Free NBA ATS Picks

The Heat have many veteran players who hope to take advantage of Philadelphia?s inexperience and come away with the series upset, but the 76ers won't be fazed. This group has a lot of confidence and is playing extremely well.

Look for the 76ers to cruise into the second round of the postseason by knocking off the Heat in only five games in NBA basketball betting.
 

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C's, Bucks clash in 1st Round
April 13, 2018



No. 7 Milwaukee Bucks at No. 2 Boston Celtics Series Preview


The Boston Celtics finished with the No. 2 seed in the Eastern Conference, but a key injury has the oddsmakers concerned about their chances of advancing out of the first round of the postseason. Boston is favored to defeat the No. 7 seed Milwaukee Bucks to begin the playoffs but it is no sure thing.

The Celtics have a deep roster but it is being tested after the early-season loss of Gordon Hayward, and now, the absence of star point guard Kyrie Irving. Both of those players are done for the year, which has put a big dent in the team?s title chances. Boston is hoping to surprise later in the playoffs but for now just needs to survive the first round.

This is one of the most intriguing opening-round playoff series in NBA wagering.

Game 1 of this NBA Playoff Series will be held at 1:00 p.m. ET on Sunday, April 15, 2018 at the TD Garden in Boston, Massachusetts. The game will be shown nationally on TNT.

We'll have NBA odds at BookMaker.eu available for every game of the 2018 NBA Playoffs.

Odds Analysis

The Celtics are listed as -170 favorites to win this series, which is a solid number but not overwhelming like the No. 2 seed in the West, the Golden State Warriors. If Boston was completely healthy it would be a bigger favorite. The Bucks are +148 underdogs to pull off the series upset.

Boston is a 4-point favorite in Game 1 between these teams. The Celtics have the benefit of the home court advantage in that one. The majority of the money is on Boston to cover that spread. The Celtics are -180 on the moneyline to win Game 1, while the Bucks are +155 underdogs. The scoring total is listed at 203 points, with the ?over? the more popular pick.

Despite being the No. 2 seed, the Celtics? NBA championship odds are low at +7535. Milwaukee?s chance of winning the title is extremely long, as the oddsmakers have pegged it at +22500 in NBA betting odds.

Injury Report


Kyrie Irving is out for the playoffs. The Celtics star point guard went down with a season-ending knee injury in late March, a huge blow for Boston.

Irving was a big part of the team?s regular season success, averaging 24.4 points per game this year. As an NBA champion, he also has the experience and poise that Boston was hoping to rely in these high-pressure games.

In addition, the Celtics will also be without Marcus Smart in this series, who underwent surgery to his right thumb. There is still hope that Smart could return later in the postseason if Boston wins out, but there is no timeline at the moment.

Player To Watch


Giannis Antetokounmpo -- The Celtics have the deeper team but Milwaukee will have the best player on the court. The ?Greek Freak? has quickly elevated himself to superstar status in the league as he is capable of impacting the game in various ways.

Boston has a good defense and will aim to keep him in check, but it seems likely that Antetokounmpo nearly single-handedly lifts the Bucks to at least a win or two in this series. The Celtics will likely throw several different defenders his way so Antetokounmpo cannot get super comfortable as the series goes on.

Free NBA ATS Picks

Boston could have some trouble without Irving but there seems to be an overreaction with the line. The Bucks are a decent team but not capable of pulling off the first-round upset. Take advantage of the friendly line and jump on the Celtics to win this series.

Boston should take care of business in six games in NBA basketball odds.
 

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West Betting Outlook
April 13, 2018


Western Conference Round 1 Preview

There?s no doubt that there?s better basketball to be played in the thoroughly dense Western Conference. You can bet on the series prices for the opening round by following this link, and check out the NBA futures here. For the most part, the matchups speak for themselves and the odds back up what you?re probably already thinking. But Utah-OKC? That?s far from a closed discussion.

No. 1 Houston Rockets vs. No. 8 Minnesota Timberwolves
NBA Series Price: HOU -3000 over MIN +1500


Do I really need to go in to details bout this one? Houston has been the outright best team in the NBA all season, and they have TWO starting rotations that are both unstoppable. That?s insane. You can lob a flier at Minnesota if you want to, but the chances of them really shining with such young stars and a half-healthy Jimmy Butler are very slim.

We just haven?t seen anything out of Andrew Wiggins this year. He?s hardly in the conversation, doesn?t truly put up highlights on a nightly basis and just hasn?t generated much buzz. This isn?t hyperbole ? he is a great player worthy of a ?max? but he just hasn?t found his identity yet.

Houston has some flaws, but you need to be an exceptional scoring team to pace with them. Minnesota has maybe one game in them. They only real reason that Houston unravels is if the team just turns on each other with Chris Paul barking negativity at his teammates and punching a hole in the hull of the ship. That may happen deeper in the playoffs, but not now and not against a Minnesota team they can sleepwalk through.

Again, as I?ve said all season long, banking on Houston long term in the NBA futures might be a bit of a fool?s errand. James Harden wore down last year, Chris Paul has never managed to get it done and Mike d?Antoni is practically cursed. It?s certainly not a lack of playoff experience and more so the lack of playoff success.

Game 1 ? Sunday, April 15th ? MIN at HOU -11.5

No. 2 Golden State Warriors vs. No. 7 San Antonio Spurs
NBA Series Price: GSW -1300 over SAS +875


I mean?it?s sort of tempting? Stephen Curry is out but then again so is Kawhi Leonard. The Spurs went just 12-11 SU over the second half of the season, rising all the way up to third and dropping way down to ninth at one point. The wild, wild west indeed.

Besides, like Houston, you?re probably not going to bet on Golden State to win the series because it requires so much risk to make it worthwhile. And it might be a lock in the eyes of the oddsmakers, but it certainly doesn?t feel like one.

Curry?s absence not withstanding, the Golden State Warriors are loaded on paper. You know the players and they?re all really, really good. I?m not going to bother listing stats. They?re the defending champions.

But this same team has been a bit unhinged through the year, haven?t they? Durant is probably the best scorer in the league right now, but he?s also racked up a ton of technical fouls. There?s been some laziness, some in fighting. It?s the usual baggage that piles up when you?re so successful and red lining for so long. Things have gotten so strange that even Draymond Green is getting kicked in the nuts by accident.

All of that speaks to mental fatigue, and Golden State is counting on the fact that they can just flick a switch, and honestly that doesn?t happen just because you want it to all the time. Of course, this could all just be posturing and Golden State really can just turn the engine up to full blast and then we all look like dummies.

In terms of the western conference, there aren?t many series where you can turn a little in to a lot, and a bet on the Spurs might be worth it if you can talk yourself in to the idea that the Warriors are running on fumes. It?s a flaccid argument ? I get that part.

I also understand that any curiosities I have about this series will be crushed once Game 1 starts and I realize ?Oh yeah?they?re the FREAKING WARRIORS?.

Game 1 ? Saturday, April 14th ? SA at GS -8.0

No. 3 Portland Trail Blazers vs. No. 6 New Orleans Pelicans
NBA Series Price: POR -205 over NO +175


The paradox of Boogie Cousins is that we all wish he was healthy enough to take part in this series, but would the Pelicans have made the playoffs with him? Anyways, that?s all the time I?m going to spend on Boogie. If he was on the court with Anthony Davis, I would be so punch drunk love with this big man combination that I?d lose all my money. It?s just such a fun idea with these two that I?m so very much in to because it shouldn?t make sense but does and didn?t work but who cares.

New Orleans is such a fascinating little roster, and I mean that in a nice way because they have a bench that doesn?t even deserved to be talked about by name. Anthony Davis is a devourer of worlds, and perhaps the only guy in the league with potential equal to LeBron James (yes, that?s a silly thing to say but whatever). He?s surrounded by a bunch of guys I like in weird fan ways. Rondo?s an electric passer. Jrue can get scorching hot. Mirotic is such an under appreciated gap filly. And E?Twaun Moore is a straight lunch pail sort of guy - very blue collar.

The Pelicans ranked 3rd in scoring with 111.7 points per game and that?s fantastic. They?ll need that to keep up with Portland. But they don?t have anyone on the bench who can step in and maintain momentum. It?s a passable starting five that some of us can talk ourselves in to. Having a player like Davis doesn?t just move the needle, it shoves the needle the other way. He?s that big of a difference maker.

The difference between New Orleans and Portland? Well, you can talk yourself in to the Pelicans being pretty good. With the Blazers, you can almost convince yourself that they?re good enough to beat Houston and Golden State. Yes, I am that high on them.

Damian Lillard isn?t just peaking, he?s a problem for any other team. Rondo and Jrue won?t be able to stop him, let alone match up against the combination of Dame and CJ McCollum. I?m already running out of room to talk about the first round of the western conference playoffs, and I haven?t even gotten to the Utah Jazz. What I will say about Portland is that they?re a very big threat and my favorite outsider to steal the conference championship.

In terms of betting advice, this series belongs to the Trail Blazers and that?s your pick if you?re going long term. But New Orleans has intrinsic, stand alone value when it comes to the game line. They?re +5.5 point dogs in Portland for Game 1. As I said when I started, they?re tempting, but not for the long haul.

Game 1 ? Saturday, April 14th ? NO at POR -5.5

No. 4 Oklahoma City Thunder vs. No. 5 Utah Jazz
NBA Series Price: OKC -145 over UTAH +125


Give Utah your money right now. Quin Snyder is going to win coach of the year and this team is very, very, very good. One of the best elements of the team is how balanced they are across the rotation. Utah ranks out 19th in scoring, but they routinely have four or five guys a night that score double digits. Plus, they?re one of the best defensive teams in the league thanks to the return of Rudy Gobert.

Utah is also the farthest thing from a public team in the NBA, and the odds with Oklahoma City are still this tight. That should tell you something right there. If you do the man-to-man matchups, Oklahoma City would win hands down. Steven Adams is the best front court player in this series. Russell Westbrook is a freaking reigning MVP (and I do not care about what you think about his stats). There?s also Paul George playing like the best two-way threat in the league not named LeBron James.

So why is Utah so close? Well for one thing, Donovan Mitchell has been an absolute super nova as a rookie. He is just a few weeks removed from dropping 35 points on San Antonio, and leading an 110-91 drubbing of the Warriors with 22 points and 6 assists. What steadies Mitchell more than anything is that he has a team-first mentality and he is flanked by numerous league veterans like Rubio and Crowder who know how to extract the best from him.

Ultimately, Utah is playing with house money. They?ve already won this year after losing Gordon Hayward, worming their way in to some weird trades that brought in workhorse Jae Crowder, and have elevated their status in a very dense western conference. They have a superstar in the making, one of the best coaches in the league and a transformative defensive force in Gobert. When you?re playing ahead like that, you can let loose in a playoff series.

The stakes are much higher for an Oklahoma City team that is on the verge of playing for the championship this year, and also teetering on the brink of losing Paul George and seeing all of their efforts over the past ten years go up in smoke.

If you do line these teams up, then Gobert-Adams and Westbrook-Mitchell are basic toss-ups. Yes, that?s how dominant Mitchell has been since the break. But the real question is whether or not Snyder can find a way to mitigate what Paul George does on both ends of the floor. That?s really the tough part.

But Utah, thankfully, has been incredible at overcoming these kind of generalities by being uber specific in what they do on the court. Their defence is so good that it?s been the best in the league since the All-Star break according to advanced metrics. Their defensive rating is 96.0 which is the only double-digit rating in the NBA. It?s more than 10 points better than the Thunder, who rank 15th in this regard.

This is the best series in the western conference?s first round because we always, always talk about offence. Utah is about to put the clamps on three of the most prolific talents in the NBA (yes I have to lump Melo in there and I don?t like it either). The Jazz have found value in surprising alleyways and then maximized talents. Rubio is shooting 46.3 percent from three point range for the last three months for goodness sakes. Sure, he doesn?t take a lot of threes but that clip is the best of his career.

All hail Snyder. If we?re going to heap praise on Brad Stevens, it?s time we bet money on good coaching. Snyder is everything the Thunder were hoping Billy Donavan would be. They?ve each had different challenges. For Billy, it?s been about melding a lot of very strong personalities. Snyder has created a different mentality, and his overall team is united and simply playing more cohesively than the Thunder. We have 82 games of a knit-together Utah Jazz operating like one of the best teams in the league, while the ultra talented Thunder still don?t feel like they have everything figured out.

In terms of betting commodities, that?s why the Jazz are the most likely upset specialist in the entire first round.

Game 1 ? Sunday, April 15th ? Utah at OKC -3.5
 

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Western Conference First Round

No. 7 San Antonio at No. 2 Golden State (ABC, 3:05 p.m. ET)

2017-18 Regular Season (Warriors 3-1)
Mar. 19 Spurs (-8) vs. Warriors 89-75 (Under 210)
Mar. 8 Warriors (-11) vs. Spurs 110-107 (Under 223)
Feb. 10 Warriors (-10.5) vs. Spurs 122-105 (Over 219)
Nov. 2 Warriors (-8.5) at Spurs 112-92 (Under 219.5)


The NBA Playoffs begin with a rematch of last year?s Western Conference Finals as the Warriors and Spurs square off on Saturday afternoon from Oracle Arena. Golden State swept San Antonio 4-0 and advanced to the finals but the entire dynamic of that series changed when Spurs All-Star forward Kawhi Leonard went down with an ankle injury in Game 1, a contest the Spurs led by 23 points.

Fast forward to this season, and Leonard has been dealing with a mysterious quad injury that has kept him out 73 games in the regular season. He?s not expected to play versus the Warriors but sometimes you never know what San Antonio (47-35 SU, 42-38-2 ATS) and head coach Gregg Popovich will do with the lineup.

Golden State (58-24 SU, 34-47-1 ATS) has also been hampered with the injury bug this season and it won?t have All Star Stephen Curry in the first round. Curry has sat out 16 of the final 17 games with an ankle and more recently a knee injury. During this span, the Warriors only went 7-10 and they were pasted 119-79 at Utah in their regular season finale.

What?s more alarming is that they went 2-5 in their final seven home games and they burned bettors with a 1-6 record against the spread. Plus, the two wins came against the Suns and Hawks who just don?t have the firepower to keep up. Against four playoff teams, they gave up an average of 111 points per page and the ?over? went 3-1 in those contests.

Will that trend carry over against San Antonio? It?s hard to much stock into the Spurs on the road this season, knowing they went 14-27 SU and 16-24-1 ATS as visitors this season. Winning away games has always been a major staple to San Antonio and the last time they had a losing record (8-33) on the road came in the 1997 season when they finished 20-62.

More importantly, they?ve gone 1-12 in their last 13 road games and they?ve crushed bettors with a 0-7 ATS mark in their last seven. The defense (113.1 PPG) has been a mess during the non-covering streak and that?s helped produce a 5-2 ?over? mark.

BookMaker.eu opened Golden State as an eight-point home favorite for the series opener. The number has held steady and it makes sense since most bettors would have trouble backing either team in Game 1.

VegasInsider.com handicapper Mark Lawrence did have pull up some great numbers that support Golden State. He noted in his ?Playoff Trends to Watch? piece.

Defending champions (the Golden State Warriors in this case) are 82-34 SU and 63-48-5 ATS overall in opening round games the next season, including 18-8 SU and 16-9-1 ATS in Game One of Round One the following season.

While the number on the side hasn?t moved, the ?under? has received some one-sided action. The total opened 210 and is down to 205 ? as of Friday evening.

The offensive numbers without Curry down the stretch have declined to 103.8 PPG but as mentioned above, the defense has been suspect. San Antonio is ranked first in defensive scoring (99.8 PPG) and ninth in defensive field goal percentage (45.3%), yet its recent form has shown any glimpses of those numbers.

Including the two playoff losses at the Warriors in last year?s conference finals, San Antonio went 3-5 SU and 4-4 ATS on the road while the ?over? was 6-2. Golden State was perfect at home (9-0 SU, 4-4-1 ATS) in the playoffs last season and dating back to the 2014-15 playoffs, the club sits at 29-5 SU and 19-14-1 ATS.

Bettors believing San Antonio can pull off the first round upset can grab odds on the Spurs as high as 9/1 on the series or you can risk Golden State as a healthy -1500 favorite.

Game 2 is set for Monday from Oracle Arena.

Eastern Conference First Round
No. 8 Washington at No. 1 Toronto (ESPN, 5:35 p.m. ET)

2017-18 Regular Season (Series tied 2-2)
Mar. 2 Raptors (-3.5) at Wizards 102-95 (Under 216.5)
Feb. 1 Wizards (-4) vs. Raptors 122-119 (Over 213.5)
Nov. 19 Raptors (-6.5) vs. Wizards 100-91 (Under 208.5)
Nov. 5 Wizards (-6.5) at Raptors 107-96 (Under 213.5)


Saturday?s second NBA Playoff matchup takes us to the Air Canada Centre where the Raptors and Wizards meet in the 1-8 matchup. Toronto (-650) is listed as a heavy favorite to win the series over Washington (+480) and similar to the Golden State-San Antonio series, bettors could have trepidation in playing the opener.

Oddsmakers opened the Raptors as 7 ?-point home favorite and the number is up to -8 as of Friday, while the total has held at 211 for a couple days.

Toronto (59-23 SU, 43-38-1 ATS) produced the second best record in the NBA this season and it was lights out at home, going 34-7 SU and 21-19-1 ATS. However, Toronto struggled in the last few weeks of the regular season with a 7-6 SU record and it was a money burner at the betting counter with a 3-9-1 ATS mark.
Fortunately for the Raptors, they?ll be playing a Washington (43-39 SU, 37-44-1 ATS) squad that has been in worse form. The Wizards closed the season with a 4-9 record and they enter the playoffs with one win in their previous six games. The club has had to deal with injuries all season, including a major setback to All-Star point guard John Wall.

He returned on Apr. 5 and has played limited minutes in four games down the stretch and the team went 2-2 in those games. If Wall is 100 percent, there?s no doubt that Washington can compete and win this series against Toronto, something they did in the 2014-15 season when they swept the Raptors in the first round.

It would be surprising to see a similar outcome knowing that Toronto has greatly improved its defense (No. 7, 103.9 PPG) and the depth off the pine showed up in the stats with the Raptors leading the league in bench scoring (41.8 PPG).

The pressure on Saturday?s opener is clearly on Toronto, who have lost 10 straight Game 1?s and that includes a run 0-6 at home. Raptors All-Star point guard Kyle Lowry is aware of the streak and he addressed it on Friday, "Our Game 1 is our Game 7 tomorrow." Lowry hasn?t had much success in the postseason and his offensive numbers have dropped off in each of the last two years.

Since Toronto snapped its playoff drought and made an appearance in 2014, the team has gone 17-24 in the postseason overall. As home favorites in the playoffs, the Raptors certainly haven?t been a good team (10-7 SU, 4-12-1 ATS) to back at the betting counter.

While Toronto has struggled historically in the playoff favorite role, Washington has been solid when catching points this regular season. As an underdog, the club was 14-15 SU and 18-11 ATS. For whatever reason, they play up to their opponent and their 15 losses to teams below .500 in the regular season is the most among the 16 clubs in this year?s playoffs.

Before you jump on Washington, make a note that the team went 1-6 both SU and ATS as road underdogs in last year?s playoffs. Those losses were clearly attributed to poor defense as the club allowed 116.5 PPG, which helped the ?over? go 6-1.

The ?under? went 3-1 in the four meetings between the pair this season and is 8-3 in the last 11 in this series. Washington slight leaned to the low side (43-37-2) this season and did see more ?under? tickets connect on the road (24-17).

These teams will meet in Game 2 next Tuesday from the Air Canada Centre.
 

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Eastern Conference First Round
No. 6 Miami at No. 3 Philaelphia (ESPN, 8:05 p.m. ET)

2017-18 Regular Season (Series tied 2-2)
Mar. 8 - Heat (-1) vs. 76ers 108-99 (Under 210.5)
Feb. 27 - Heat (-1) vs. 76ers 102-101 (Under 205)
Feb. 14 - 76ers (-4.5) vs. Heat 104-102 (Over 202.5)
Feb. 2 - 76ers (-4) vs. Heat 103-97 (Under 203)


-- As of Friday afternoon, most betting shops had Philadelphia (52-30 straight up, 47-33-2 against the spread) listed as a seven-point favorite with a total of 212. The Heat were available on the money line for a +250 return (risk $100 to win $250).

-- Sportsbook.ag had the 76ers as -500 favorites to win the series, while Miami was +390 on the comeback (risk $100 to win $390).

-- Philadelphia, the Eastern Conference?s No. 3 seed, is making its first postseason appearance since the 2011-12 campaign. The 76ers won 16 consecutive games to close the regular season, going 11-3 ATS in its past 14 contests. They have won 11 games by double-digit margins during this surge, winning by eight points or more 13 times.

-- Brett Brown?s team owns a 30-10 SU record and a 27-13 ATS mark at home this year.

-- Philadelphia will be without Joel Embiid for Game 1. The 24-year-old center is averaging 22.9 points, 11.0 rebounds, 3.2 assists and 1.8 blocked shots per game. Embiid missed the final eight games of the regular season after sustaining a fractured orbital bone on March 28. He?s expected to return at some point during the opening round.

-- Seven Philadelphia players are averaging in double figures, including veteran free-agent signee J.J. Redick. The 13-year veteran out of Duke averaged a career-best 17.1 PPG while draining 42.0 percent of his 3-pointers and 90.4 percent of his free throws. Ben Simmons, the rookie who was a one-and-done player at LSU before missing last season with an injury, is averaging 15.8 points, 8.2 assists, 8.1 rebounds, 1.7 steals and 0.9 blocked shots per game.

-- Miami (44-38 SU, 40-36-6 ATS) has posted a 17-23 SU record and a 23-15-2 spread ledger in its road assignments.

-- These clubs split four regular-season games with Miami going 2-1-1 ATS. All four meetings came in a five-week span from Feb. 2 to March 8. In the first encounter at Philadelphia, the 76ers captured a 103-97 triumph as four-point home ?chalk.? The 200 combined points dropped ?under? the 203-point total. Simmons was the catalyst with 20 points, six rebounds, two steals, one block and five assists without a turnover. All five starters scored at least 13 points with Embiid contributing 17 points, 11 rebounds, four assists and three blocked shots. Dario Saric, who averages 14.6 points and 6.7 RPG, had a double-double with 17 points, 10 boards and four assists. Robert Covington and Redick scored 13 points apiece. Kelly Olynyk scored a team-high 19 points for the Heat.

-- Philadelphia won the second meeting by a 104-102 count, but Miami took the cash as a four-point road underdog. The 206 combined points inched ?over? the 202-point total. The 76ers destroyed the Heat on the boards with an unfathomable 60-29 advantage thanks to 23 offensive rebounds. Simmons produced a triple-double with 18 points, 12 rebounds, four steals and 10 assists. Saric finished with 19 points and eight boards, while Marco Belinelli came off the bench to score 17 points. Miami?s James Johnson had a game-high 22 points in the losing effort. Johnson grabbed four rebounds and dished out five assists without committing a turnover.

-- Miami won a 102-101 decision over Philadelphia as a one-point home favorite on Feb. 27. Dwyane Wade scored 27 points and knocked down the game winner on a fade-away jumper with 5.9 seconds remaining. The franchise icon scored 15 of the Heat?s last 17 points. Redick?s chance to answer at the buzzer from the top of the key was off the mark. The 203 combined points wiggled ?under? the 205-point tally. Goran Dragic finished with 21 points, six rebounds and five assists for the winners. Embiid had 23 points, eight rebounds and four assists in the losing effort.

-- Miami earned the split of the season series thanks to a 108-99 triumph as a one-point home ?chalk? on March 8. The 207 combined points dipped ?under? the 210.5-point total. Hassan Whiteside led the winners with 26 points, eight rebounds and a pair of blocked shots. Wade had 16 points and six boards in 23 minutes of action. Saric had 20 points and 10 rebounds for the 76ers.

-- Dragic is listed as ?probable? with knee soreness, while Redick is also ?probable? (back). Dragic averages 17.3 points, 4.8 assists and 4.1 RPG for the Heat. Whiteside averages 14.0 points, 11.4 rebounds and 1.7 blocked shots per game.

-- Miami had five players who hit 100 3-pointers or more this year, and it had nine players who averaged in double figures. One of those guys, Dion Waiters, is out for the season, however. Wayne Ellington, the veteran shooting guard who played his college ball at North Carolina, hit more treys (227) than any reserve in NBA history this year. He averaged a career-best 11.2 PPG.

-- The ?over? is 41-40-1 overall for the 76ers, but they?ve seen the ?under? go 21-19-1 in their home outings. The ?over? went 4-1 in their last five games of the regular season.

-- The ?under? is 44-37-1 overall for Miami, 22-19 in its road games.

Western Conference First Round
No. 6 New Orleans at No. 3 Portland (ESPN, 10:35 p.m. ET)

2017-18 Regular Season (Series tied 2-2)
Mar. 27 Trail Blazers (-1) at Pelicans 107-103 (Under 221.5)
Jan. 12 Pelicans (-3.5) vs. Trail Blazers 119-113 (Over 218.5)
Dec. 2 Pelicans (+7.5) at Trail Blazers 123-116 (Over 210.5)
Oct. 24 Trail Blazers (-5.5) vs. Pelicans 103-99 (Under 216)


-- As of Friday afternoon, most spots had Portland (49-33 SU, 45-32-3 ATS) listed as a 5.5-point favorite for Game 1. The total was 217 and the Pelicans were +200 on the money line (risk $100 to win $200).

-- Sportsbook.ag has Portland installed as the -230 favorite to win the series, leaving the Pelicans as +195 underdogs (risk $100 to win $195).

-- Portland has produced a 28-13 SU record and a 23-15-3 spread mark in its home games this season.

-- Terry Stotts?s squad is led by Damian Lillard, who averages team-highs in points (26.9 PPG), assists (6.6 APG) and free-throw percentage (91.6%). C.J. McCollum averages 21.4 PPG and makes 39.7 percent of his 3-pointers. Jusuf Nurkic is averaging 14.3 points, 9.0 rebounds and 1.4 blocked shots per game.

-- New Orleans (48-34 SU, 45-36-1 ATS) finished the regular season by winning five games in a row both SU and ATS to secure the sixth seed in the Western Conference. The Pelicans finished tied with fourth-seeded Oklahoma City and fifth-seeded Utah, and they were just one game back of the Trail Blazers.

-- Alvin Gentry?s squad is 24-17 SU and 26-15 ATS on the road this year. When listed as underdogs of five points or more, the Pelicans posted an 8-6 spread record.

-- Since Feb. 10, New Orleans has compiled a 20-8 SU record and a 19-9 spread ledger.

-- New Orleans lost star center DeMarcus Cousins to a ruptured Achilles tendon on Jan. 31. Cousins was averaging 25.2 points, 12.9 rebounds, 5.4 assists, 1.6 steals and 1.6 blocked shots per game.

-- These teams split four regular-season meetings both SU and ATS, with each team winning and covering once at home and on the road. The first encounter went down in Portland on Oct. 24, with the Trail Blazers winning a 103-93 decision as 4.5-point home ?chalk.? The 196 combined points stayed ?under? the 216.5-point total. Portland outscored the Pelicans 32-20 in the fourth quarter. McCollum scored a team-high 23 points to lead five double-figure scorers for the winners. Lillard made merely 3-of-16 field-goal attempts and committed six turnovers. Lillard had 13 points, seven assists and five rebounds. Anthony Davis left the game midway through the first quarter with an injury and didn?t return. DeMarcus Cousins had 39 points, 13 rebounds, three assists and three blocked shots in the losing effort.

-- New Orleans returned to the Moda Center on Dec. 2 and beat Portland 123-116 as a 7.5-point underdog. The 239 combined points soared ?over? the 211-point total. With Davis out with an injury, Cousins was the catalyst with 38 points and eight rebounds. E?Twaun Moore added 19 points by burying 6-of-7 FGAs and all four of his launches from 3-point territory. Jrue Holiday finished with 17 points, five boards and seven assists compared to only one turnover. Lillard paced Portland with 29 points and eight assists compared to just one turnover. McCollum and Meyers Leonard scored 17 points apiece.

-- New Orleans welcomed Portland to the Big Easy with 119-113 win as a 3.5-point home favorite on Jan. 12. The 232 combined points went ?over? the 219-point tally. Davis stole the show with 36 points, nine rebounds and two blocked shots. He hit 16-of-23 attempts from the field and all four of his free-throw attempts. Holiday produced 25 points, six assists, five rebounds and four steals, while Cousins finished with 24 points, 19 boards and eight assists. Lillard and McCollum scored 23 points apiece in defeat.

-- Just a few weeks ago on March 27, Portland returned to Smoothie King Center and captured a 107-103 victory as a 1.5-point road favorite. The 210 combined points went ?under? the 221-point total. Lillard scored 28 of his 41 points in the second half to propel his team into the win column. The sixth-year veteran out of Weber St. also had nine rebounds, four steals and six assists without a turnover. Nurkic added 21 points, 10 boards and four blocked shots, while Evan Turner contributed 14 points and six boards. Davis had 36 points, 14 rebounds, six blocked shots, four assists and two steals in the losing effort. Holiday had a triple-double with 21 points, 11 rebounds, 11 assists and a pair of rejections.

-- Portland?s Maurice Harkless is ?out? with a knee injury and isn?t expected to be able to return until late April. Harkless played in 59 regular-season games, averaging 6.5 points and 2.7 RPG. He was knocking down 41.5 percent of his 3-point attempts.

-- Portland?s improvement to garner the West?s No. 3 seed can be attributed to its vastly improved defense. The Trail Blazers are ranked fifth in the NBA in scoring defense (103.0 PPG) and fourth in FG percentage ?D? (44.7%).

-- Portland?s defense will have its hands full with New Orleans, which is ranked third in the NBA in scoring (111.7 PPG) and second in FG percentage (48.3%).

-- Davis and Holiday have both enjoyed career years. Davis is averaging 28.1 points, 11.1 rebounds, 2.6 blocked shots and 1.5 steals per game. He?s hit 53.4 percent of his FGAs and 82.8 percent of his FTAs. Holiday is averaging 19.0 points, 6.0 assists, 4.5 rebounds and 1.5 steals per game, making 49.4 percent of his shots from the field.

-- Nikola Mirotic has proven to be a crucial trade-deadline acquisition from Chicago. In 30 games with New Orleans, the fifth-year power forward has averaged 14.6 points, 8.2 rebounds and 1.0 steals per game. Mirotic was on fire during the five-game winning steak to close the regular season, averaging 25.8 points and 12.0 RPG.

-- Moore (12.5 PPG) gives the Pelicans another 3-point shooter with his 42.5 percent accuracy from downtown. Rajon Rondo has played outstanding basketball down the stretch and has been a dominant player at times during his postseason career. The University of Kentucky product, one of six on the roster, is averaging 8.3 points, 8.2 assists, 4.0 rebounds and 1.1 steals per game. Most important, Rondo has a stellar 533/151 assist-to-turnover ratio.

-- The ?under? is 6-2-1 in the last nine games the Pelicans have played at Portland.

-- After going 4-1 in the Pelicans? final five games, the ?over? is 47-35 overall. However, the ?under? is 21-20 for New Orleans in its road contests.

-- The ?under? is 47-35 overall for the Trail Blazers, 23-18 in their home games.
 

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Analytics back NBA Trio
April 13, 2018


Does defense win NBA Championships?

So you're thinking about a future wager on the NBA Championship and you're not sure who to take? We can help you with some proven statistics that accurately predict who this year's Champion may be, and rule out the most obvious media darling pretender.

The backbone of this research is centered around efficiency ratings/rankings compiled through the regular season. The average overall efficiency rating this season in the NBA was 1.087 points scored/allowed per possession or 108.7 per 100 possessions. The Houston Rockets were the most efficient offense in the NBA at 114.7 points per 100 possessions (1.147PPP) while the Utah Jazz and Boston Celtics held the best defensive efficiency rating in the league of 103.9 or 1.039PPP. If past history tells us anything, these numbers can be extremely useful in predicting the NBA Champion.

This trend started in 2008-09 when the Finals featured the LA Lakers with head coach Phil Jackson and HOF'er Kobe Bryant, facing the Orlando Magic and a young Dwight Howard. The Lakers won that Finals series in dominating fashion 4 games to 1. The Lakers finished the regular season ranked 3rd in offensive efficiency ratings (OEFF) and 6th in defensive efficiency (DEFF). Orlando had efficiency numbers that ranked them 12th in OEFF and 1st in DEFF. This was the beginning of the "efficiency" Champions.

Below are the Finals Champions and their overall efficiency rankings for the past nine Championships.

NBA CHAMPIONS FROM 2008

2008-09 LA Lakers (OEFF = 3rd, DEFF = 6th)
2009-10 LA Lakers (OEFF = 11th, DEFF = 4th)
2010-11 Dallas Mavericks (OEFF = 8th, DEFF = 7th)
2011-12 Miami Heat (OEFF = 8th, DEFF = 4th)
2012-13 Miami Heat (OEFF = 1st, DEFF = 9th)
2013-14 San Antonio Spurs (OEFF = 7th, DEFF = 3rd)
2014-15 Golden State Warriors (OEFF = 2nd, DEFF = 1st)
2015-16 Cleveland Cavaliers (OEFF = 3rd, DEFF = 10th)
2016-17 Golden State Warriors (OEFF = 1st, DEFF = 2nd)


You can see for yourself the only team that has won a Championship in the last nine years that had an OEFF or DEFF NOT in the top 10 for that season was the 2009-10 Lakers (11th in offensive efficiency).

Every team that has won a Championship in the past nine Finals has had a Defensive Efficiency ranking in the top 10 at the end of the regular season. So using this model (top 11 OEFF and top 10 in DEFF) to predict this year?s Champion we can eliminate everyone but the following teams: Houston, Toronto and Oklahoma City.

On the outside looking in is Golden State, Indiana and Philadelphia. The Warriors (3rd OEFF) saw a late season dip in their defensive efficiency (11th) which doesn't qualify them based on the above criteria.

Indiana was 10th in offensive efficiency and 12th in defensive efficiency.

Philadelphia is 12th in OEFF, 4th in DEFF.


Two of the big names missing from this list are the Boston Celtics and Cleveland Cavaliers. The Celtics offense has not been good this season and that's a direct result of the Kyrie Irving injury, but their defense is still outstanding ranking 1st (tied Utah) in the NBA. The Cavs have a top 5 offensive efficiency ratings BUT are second to last in the entire league in DEFF, only the Suns are worse!

2017-18 Regular Season Efficiency Rankings for the Math Model "Contenders"
Houston Rockets: OEFF 1st, DEFF 6th
Toronto Raptors: OEFF 2nd, DEFF 5th
Oklahoma City Thunder: OEFF 7th, DEFF 9th


Who NOT to bet!

Cleveland Cavaliers


The one 'big' contender that is missing from the above list is the Cleveland Cavaliers, who have the 5th most efficient offense in the NBA (OEFF) but rank a horrendous 29th in DEFF. To put that in perspective the Cavs are barely ahead of the Phoenix Suns defensively and the Suns could get the first pick in the draft! For those of you that are thinking the Cavaliers are going to 'flip a switch' and turn their defense on you better think again. It certainly didn't work that way last year after ranking 21st in DEFF during the regular season and 9th (out of 16 teams) in the postseason.

After the big in-season trades the Cavs defense has improved slightly, but not enough to make a difference in the Finals. An alarming trend we've seen is that everywhere LeBron goes, those teams become worse defensively. The year of "I'm taking my talents to South Beach", the Heat had the 5th best defensive efficiency rating before LeBron formed the 'Big 3'. When he left Miami they had dipped to 11th in overall defensive efficiency ratings.

When Cleveland won their Championship in 2015-16 they had the 10th best DEFF rating, allowing just 1.052 points per possession. Last season the Cavs slipped to 21st in DEFF and this season they are a dreadful 29th allowing 1.129 points per possession. LBJ has been quick to call out his teammates for their lack of defense but maybe he should look in the mirror as he hasn't made 1st team All-Defense for four straight seasons.

What's most alarming about Cleveland is their overall numbers against good teams. The Cavs have the worst defensive efficiency numbers of all current playoff teams against other playoff teams, and are just 20-21 SU this season against current post-season teams. Of their 20 overall wins, 15 have come against the weaker East and those wins came by an average of just .8PPG. When it came to playing a playoff team from the West, the Cavs were just 5-11 SU this season with a negative point differential of -7.8PPG. Not to mention, they have a very tough first round match up with the Indiana Pacers who beat Cleveland 3 of four times this season.

But, we won't write the Cavs off entirely because they are in the East and have an offense capable of out-scoring just about anyone. They certainly own Toronto, who is the favorite to come out of the East, but poor offensive schemes in the postseason has derailed the Raptors the past few seasons. Boston without Kyrie Irving isn't a serious threat anymore even though they have the best coach in the NBA on the sidelines.

Cleveland may come out of the East but they aren't beating either Houston, Oklahoma City or Golden State from the West.

Our Money is on...
HOUSTON ROCKETS


The eventual Champion comes from the West and will be Houston Rockets (+$160). We can't back a Golden State team that has dropped off dramatically in defense late in the season and much like Cleveland, we don't see them just 'flipping the switch' in the playoffs. Even if Steph Curry comes back in the second round we still don't see them beating a Rockets team that has done it all season long. The Rockets were 32-10 SU against all the other playoff teams this season and won those games by +7.1PPG. At home this season the Rockets were 16-4 SU against all other playoff teams and those 16 wins came by an average of 13PPG. Now with Chris Paul in the lineup the Rockets have another scoring option if James Harden has an off night. When everyone is talking about Houston's offense though, it's their improvement of defense that has gotten them this far. Houston went from 18th in defensive efficiency rankings a year ago, to 6th this season.

If you are looking for a better return on your investment, the Thunder at +$4000 are an intriguing long-shot proposition. Statistically, the Thunder qualify in our math model efficiency rankings theory as they rank in the top 10 in both OEFF and DEFF. They have the most dynamic player in the NBA on their roster in Russell Westbrook who averaged a triple-double for the second straight season. Oklahoma City has their own 'Big 3' with Westbrook, Paul George and Carmelo Anthony, veteran leadership, size, toughness and rebounding. OKC was 22-20 SU against playoff teams this season with a positive scoring margin of +2.4PPG. The Achilles heel of the Thunder though is depth and in the West that's not a great recipe for success, especially in long series.

Overall this shapes up to be one of the best NBA playoffs in a long time and we can't wait! Best of luck with all your wagers.
 

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Warriors ready for fresh new start
April 13, 2018


OAKLAND, Calif. (AP) Kevin Durant is confident Golden State's struggles down the stretch might be just what makes the defending champions dominant on the postseason stage again.

Maybe not quite 16-1 this time around, sure, yet plenty capable of another remarkable run.

''I always knew everybody on our team had a good spirit, a good energy for the game,'' said Durant, the reigning NBA Finals MVP. ''We might have lost some games and had some tough stretches but that doesn't define everybody here as an individual player. I'm kind of positive on, optimistic on each of these guys and how we approach the game no matter what the score of some of those games. I'm glad we can kind of learn from those tough times and continue to move forward.''

The Warriors have been hurt and humbled. Beaten handily and beat up hard. Two-time MVP Stephen Curry is expected to be sidelined the entire first round with a knee injury. Four All-Stars - Curry, Durant, Draymond Green and Klay Thompson - were out together at times, too.

On Saturday afternoon, Golden State begins its championship quest with Game 1 of the best-of-seven first round against the San Antonio Spurs at Oracle Arena.

''We learned a lot,'' coach Steve Kerr said. ''Every experience that you gain you can learn from. This has been such a chaotic month with all the injuries and the meaningless games. We've been frustrated. We haven't performed very well. The good news is we have performed well for four years, so we know who we are. We know what we're about. We know this team well, we know the Spurs well, so we know what we have to do. We've got to go do it. The last month is meaningless now. Everything starts over.''

Some of that is what Kerr gained from Spurs coach Gregg Popovich: ''You take whatever is in front of you and you embrace it.''

Here are some key story lines for the Spurs-Warriors series, a rematch of last season's Western Conference Finals swept by Golden State:

A SPECIAL FRIENDSHIP

Kerr hardly played during four seasons with San Antonio late in his career.

Still, Popovich is one of his favorite people - even if he wants nothing more than to eliminate his dear friend.

''Pop doesn't like to see me lose. I like to see him lose. He's had way too much success already,'' Kerr cracked. ''I think sometimes Pop needs to be humbled a little bit. So I'm looking to really rub it in and enjoy if we're able to beat them.''

Kerr added: ''I want Pop to win against anybody else. We're that close. He's my mentor and he's somebody I feel incredibly strongly about in terms of who he is and what he did for me in my life, and what he's doing for my son right now.''

NO CURRY OR KAWHI

Golden State has gone without Curry for 16 of the last 17 games as he worked back from another injury to his troublesome right ankle only to sprain the medial collateral ligament in his left knee in his return March 23.

Curry is scheduled to be re-evaluated Saturday yet Kerr noted that ''he's not close to playing.''

The Warriors also aren't expecting to see Spurs star Kawhi Leonard. He played in only nine regular-season games because of a lingering right quadriceps injury.

DEFENSIVE SWAGGER

Durant and Green insist it's time to start taking defense more seriously.

''Now we can focus in on what we always do good here, it's flying around on defense, moving the basketball,'' Durant said.

The Spurs realize the challenges.

''They are smart, they are long,'' Manu Ginobili said. ''They are very quick to switch back to the matchups they want. They've got a lot of long wings that recover very quick. ... There's a reason why they've been winning so many games.''

SPURS STRUGGLES

While the Warriors endured a stretch of seven losses in 10 games, the Spurs dealt with their own eight-game skid down the stretch.

And San Antonio went just 14-27 on the road.

Even if the Spurs' 2017 series with the Warriors was swift, this is a fresh chance.

''It's a new year,'' LaMarcus Aldridge said. ''This team has fought and put ourselves in a position to be here. Last year is last year.''

CENTER BY COMMITTEE

It might be Zaza Pachulia. Maybe JaVale McGee. Or Kevon Looney. David West will get his minutes, too.

Each offers something uniquely different as the Warriors go with a center-by-committee approach.

Kerr isn't saying which big man he will start - he's not giving Popovich any early clues. And Kerr said he and Spurs staffer and son, Nick, are cutting off communication for a couple of weeks.
 

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Column: NBA playoffs are wide open - for once
April 13, 2018


Hey, here's something we haven't heard before.

The NBA playoffs are wide open.

At perhaps no other time in the league's history have so many teams gone into the postseason with a real shot at hoisting the trophy at the end of this two-month grind.

From the top seeds in Houston and Toronto, to the old stalwarts in Golden State and Cleveland, to the brash up-and-comers in Philadelphia and Minnesota, there are potential storylines galore and no real way to predict how it all may shake out.

''We've got a chance,'' said LeBron James, who will be seeking his eighth straight trip to the finals. ''That's all you can ask for.''

For pretty much the NBA's entire history, there's been little reason to tune in for the playoffs until they got to the finals. No wonder Charles Barkley became so enamored with the NHL version of the postseason - that's a sport that actually doles out some real drama once the regular season is over.

The NBA?

Yawn.

Over the last four decades, a top-seeded team has claimed 28 championships. All but one of the remaining titles went to teams seeded second or third going into the postseason - and even several of those were clearly the best team (see: the 2012 Miami Heat with their Big Three of James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh; the 2001 and 2002 Los Angeles Lakers featuring Kobe Bryant and Shaquille O'Neal; the 1993 Chicago Bulls claiming their third straight title led by Michael Jordan).

Looking a little deeper over that same 40-year span, and you'll find only five teams lower than a No. 3 seed that lost in the finals. Such dominance by a handful of dynasties and superteams has largely rendered the early rounds of the playoffs a moot point, a mere coronation on the way to the inevitable matchup at the end.

This year, it makes sense to tune in right from the start.

At the risk of getting things totally wrong, here's a few predictions for these most uncertain of playoffs:

ROCKETS' TOUGH ROAD

Houston posted the league's best record (65-17), and it's hard to bet against a team that has James Harden. But the Rockets are facing a tough opening-round series against Minnesota, which broke a 14-year playoff drought with a dramatic overtime victory on the final day of the regular season . If the Timberwolves can ride that momentum - and it's entirely possible, with Jimmy Butler coming back from a knee injury - they could make things real interesting. The Rockets will be without a valuable rotation player, Luc Mbah a Moute , who sustained a shoulder injury this week in a meaningless game. Assuming they get past Minnesota, the Rockets could be derailed in the second round by the Oklahoma City Thunder, a perplexing squad that has pretty much spent all season trying to figure out how to mesh the immense talents of Russell Westbrook, Paul George and Carmelo Anthony. They seemed to figure it out late in year, winning 11 of their last 16 games - with the five losses by a total of 13 points. The Thunder could be the surprise team that emerges from the loaded West.

DEFENDING CHAMPS

The Golden State Warriors have been to the finals three years in a row, winning titles in both 2015 and last season, and they certainly have the talent to make it back despite a less-than-dominating regular season that prompted coach Steve Kerr at one point to call out their effort as "pathetic." Steph Curry will probably miss the opening round with a knee injury, but the Warriors should get by a fading San Antonio Spurs squad that will likely be without ailing Kawhi Leonard for the entire series. Kevin Durant, Draymond Green and Klay Thompson give the defending champs plenty of firepower, even without Curry. The Warriors should at least make it back to the conference final, where chances are either the Rockets or OKC will be waiting.

PHILLY'S MOMENTUM

There is no more intriguing team than the Philadelphia 76ers, who just two seasons ago went 10-72. This year, they became the first team in NBA history to close the regular season on a 16-game winning streak, surging to the No. 3 seed in the East . If Joel Embiid comes back faster than expected from a fractured orbital bone, Philadelphia could do some real damage in the East. Look for the Sixers to beat the Heat in the opening round, leading to what could be a very favorable matchup against the injury ravaged Boston Celtics in Round 2. The 76ers should be a year or two away from being a real championship contender. Then again, look what's happened in Philly: The Eagles won their first Super Bowl championship and Villanova claimed the national title in college hoops. Maybe the precocious 76ers will follow their lead, far sooner than anyone could've predicted.

DON'T FORGET THE KING

James has been to the finals seven years in a row - four times with the Heat, three more since returning to Cleveland. The Cavaliers are only a No. 4 seed after enduring a season of dysfunction, but the King is ready to take this team on his back. At 33, James has been as dominant as ever , and he has a way of flipping the switch to an even higher level in the playoffs. He's still the guy you start with if building a championship-ready roster.

Who knows?

Maybe we'll get a Cavaliers-Warriors final for the fourth year in a row.

At least it would be a bit of a surprise this time.
 

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Saturday's Best Bets
April 13, 2018


Saturday NBA Playoff Best Bets

After a long NBA regular season, it's now when things start to get really good with the playoffs arriving. This is when NBA players have no problem leaving it all out on the court every night (because let's be honest, a lot of them half-ass it in certain spots throughout the regular season). When you can expect max effort, starters getting the bulk of the minutes, and normal, expected rotations being deployed, our jobs as NBA handicappers becomes a little easier.

That being said, it's still not easy to win come playoff time as oddsmakers have a full season's worth of data to use to spit out the point spreads and totals they give us and they'll only get sharper as the postseason wears on. But a quadruple-header on the first day of the 2018 NBA playoffs is cause for excitement and enthusiasm, so let's try to get a few over on those oddsmakers early and play with their money the rest of the way.

Best Bet #1: Washington/Toronto Under 211

The 1st place Toronto Raptors have known all year long that it didn't really matter what they did in the regular season because they'd always be judged by their postseason run. This is a team that's been building to a crescendo the past few years to go all the way, and now that they've got home court throughout the entire Eastern Conference playoffs, Raptors fans are excited for what the next two months may bring.

But the Raptors can't get caught looking ahead, especially against a Washington team that was in the 4th/5th spot for much of the year before John Wall got hurt and missed significant time. Wall has been back in the fold for some time now and while his return didn't lead to the best results for Washington (2-5 SU), the Wizards knew they were playoff bound and I don't think had any problem with slipping in the standings for their 1st round playoff matchup as long as it probably wasn't Cleveland. Even at 8th against the mighty Raptors isn't that disconcerting as Washington did split the season series with Toronto (2-2 SU) with each side winning once at home and on the road.

Yet, this play isn't about the winner of the game it's about the total. Three of those four regular season matchups went well under the number, and two of the three 'unders' didn't even crack 200 total points. The lone 'over' was a track meet (122-119) but that was the anomaly in this rivalry as seven of the past 10 meetings have stayed low. With the intensity kicked up a notch being the playoffs, I expect both sides to revert back to the form that has been more common this year (and in seasons past) when these two meet and it being a struggle to get to 200 or so points.

But what makes me like this 'under' even more is the fact that this Toronto team is no stranger to low-scoring games to open up playoff series'. Back in the 2014 playoffs, Toronto was ousted by the Nets in Round 1, but Game 1 that day finished 94-87 in favor of Brooklyn. A year later, it was this same Washington team Round 1 for Toronto and that opening game finished 93-86 in OT no less. Toronto was swept by the Wizards that season, but in their trip to the Conference Finals in 2016, Game 1's for Toronto finished with 190, 198 (in OT), and 199 points respectively. Throw in last year's two Game 1's for Toronto (180 and 221 points) and it's easy to see that it tends to take this Raptors offense some time to get going.

Whether that's because things tighten up defensively and the whistles go away in the playoffs is another story, but while Toronto fans will constantly tell you that this year will be different for the Raptors in the playoffs, I'm betting that at least their Game 1 low-scoring trend stays the same.

Best Bet #2: Miami +7

There is no hotter team than the Philadelphia 76ers entering the playoffs as they've won 16 straight games to enter the second season and look to make quick work of the Miami Heat in Round 1. Trusting the process may have felt like it took forever, but the Sixers are at the beginning of a franchise upswing right now and getting all the playoff experience they can this year will be extremely valuable for a lot of the young guys on this team going forward. Yet, after winning 16 straight, the Sixers don't care about playoff experience, they care about playoff wins.

However, this first round series against Miami isn't the most ideal matchup for Philly. The Heat are loaded with experienced guys who have gone on deep playoff runs before and know exactly what it takes to win this time of year. Like the Toronto/Washington series, these two teams split the season series (2-2 SU), with all four games coming since February and all four times the home team won. That's not to say Philly won't win Game 1 outright, but don't you think this 16-game winning streak has inflated this point spread a touch? I certainly do.

The home side may be a perfect 4-0 SU when these two teams played, but two of the three games (each side won once) were decided by two points or less, and Philly's other win was a six-pointer back at the beginning of February. The games between these two have been tight all year long and I don't expect that to change in this series. Stealing one win on the road will be the goal of both teams in this series, and given how close all four games were between them in the regular season, both sides are more than capable of winning one in the visitor's jersey.

Simply put, this is too many points to lay with a Philly team that is getting their first taste of playoff basketball in years, and there were some very rough years in there. This is a young team that's learning on the fly and there can be a steeper learning curve during the playoffs. Hopefully for Sixers fans the 2017-18 ?Process? isn't done after just one round, but to avoid that result the Sixers are going to have to scrape out some very tight wins, something they rarely had to do down the stretch against a lot of bad teams. Give me the points here.
 

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NBA playoffs
Saturday?s games


Spurs vs Warriors (0-0) 


No Curry or Leonard in this series. Spurs (47-35) had their worst record in Gregg Popovich?s 21 years as head coach; they won their first round playoff series 14 of last 17 years, but were favored in those. San Antonio lost eight of last nine games with Golden State; they?re 2-2 vs spread in last four visits to Oakland. Warriors (58-24) won their fewest games since 2014; they played in NBA Finals last three years. Spurs are 0-7 vs spread in last seven road games; their last road cover was March 8, a 110-107 (+11) loss here in Oakland. Warriors are 0-5 vs spread in last five home games.

Wizards vs Raptors (0-0)


Toronto (59-23) won most games in franchise history; they won first round series last two years, but have never been to NBA Finals. Raptors won their last four home games overall (2-1-1 vs spread). Washington is in playoffs for 4th time in five years; they won their last three first round series. Wizards are 3-7 in last ten games with Toronto, 3-2 vs spread in last five visits to Canada. Road team won five of last seven series games; under is 7-3 in last ten series games. Wizards lost six their last six road games (1-5 vs spread).

Heat vs 76ers (0-0)


Philadelphia won its last 16 games, longest winning streak ever going into playoffs; Sixers are in playoffs for first time since 2012- they lost four of last five first round series. Home side won last nine Miami-Philly games; Heat is 2-3 vs spread in last five games in this building. Three of last four series games stayed under total. 76ers? last loss was March 13; they?re 7-2 vs spread in last nine home games. Heat is in playoffs for 8th time in last ten years; they won last five first round series. Miami split its last ten games; they?re 1-2-1 vs spread in last four road games.

Pelicans vs Trailblazers (0-0)



New Orleans is in playoffs for first time since ?15 and only 2nd time in last seven years; they lost last three first round series- last time they won a playoff series was 2008. Pelicans won four of last six games with Portland; they?re 2-2 vs spread in last five visits to Oregon. New Orleans is without Cousins; they won/covered last five games overall (over 4-1), with wins at Oakland and the Clippers. Blazers are in playoffs for 5th straight year; they?re 2-8 in last ten first round series. Portland won its last three home games overall (2-1 vs spread).
 

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NBA
Dunkel

Saturday, April 14



San Antonio @ Golden State

Game 501-502
April 14, 2018 @ 3:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
San Antonio
119.637
Golden State
130.775
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Golden State
by 11
216
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Golden State
by 8
209 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Golden State
(-8); Over

Washington @ Toronto


Game 503-504
April 14, 2018 @ 5:35 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Washington
112.706
Toronto
122.923
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Toronto
by 10
209
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Toronto
by 7 1/2
211
Dunkel Pick:
Toronto
(-7 1/2); Under

Miami @ Philadelphia


Game 505-506
April 14, 2018 @ 8:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Miami
119.064
Philadelphia
124.112
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Philadelphia
by 5
213
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Philadelphia
by 7
210
Dunkel Pick:
Miami
(+7); Over

New Orleans @ Portland


Game 507-508
April 14, 2018 @ 10:35 pm

Dunkel Rating:
New Orleans
125.963
Portland
122.136
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New Orleans
by 4
201
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Portland
by 6
217 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
New Orleans
(+6); Under





NBA
Armadillo's Write-Up

Saturday, April 14



Spurs vs Warriors (0-0) 


No Curry or Leonard in this series. Spurs (47-35) had their worst record in Gregg Popovich?s 21 years as head coach; they won their first round playoff series 14 of last 17 years, but were favored in those. San Antonio lost eight of last nine games with Golden State; they?re 2-2 vs spread in last four visits to Oakland. Warriors (58-24) won their fewest games since 2014; they played in NBA Finals last three years. Spurs are 0-7 vs spread in last seven road games; their last road cover was March 8, a 110-107 (+11) loss here in Oakland. Warriors are 0-5 vs spread in last five home games.

Wizards vs Raptors (0-0)


Toronto (59-23) won most games in franchise history; they won first round series last two years, but have never been to NBA Finals. Raptors won their last four home games overall (2-1-1 vs spread). Washington is in playoffs for 4th time in five years; they won their last three first round series. Wizards are 3-7 in last ten games with Toronto, 3-2 vs spread in last five visits to Canada. Road team won five of last seven series games; under is 7-3 in last ten series games. Wizards lost six their last six road games (1-5 vs spread).

Heat vs 76ers (0-0)


Philadelphia won its last 16 games, longest winning streak ever going into playoffs; Sixers are in playoffs for first time since 2012- they lost four of last five first round series. Home side won last nine Miami-Philly games; Heat is 2-3 vs spread in last five games in this building. Three of last four series games stayed under total. 76ers? last loss was March 13; they?re 7-2 vs spread in last nine home games. Heat is in playoffs for 8th time in last ten years; they won last five first round series. Miami split its last ten games; they?re 1-2-1 vs spread in last four road games.

Pelicans vs Trailblazers (0-0)


New Orleans is in playoffs for first time since ?15 and only 2nd time in last seven years; they lost last three first round series- last time they won a playoff series was 2008. Pelicans won four of last six games with Portland; they?re 2-2 vs spread in last five visits to Oregon. New Orleans is without Cousins; they won/covered last five games overall (over 4-1), with wins at Oakland and the Clippers. Blazers are in playoffs for 5th straight year; they?re 2-8 in last ten first round series. Portland won its last three home games overall (2-1 vs spread).




NBA

Saturday, April 14


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Trend Report
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San Antonio Spurs
San Antonio is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
San Antonio is 10-5 SU in its last 15 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Antonio's last 5 games
San Antonio is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
San Antonio is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Antonio's last 5 games on the road
San Antonio is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Golden State
San Antonio is 1-8 SU in its last 9 games when playing Golden State
The total has gone OVER in 6 of San Antonio's last 9 games when playing Golden State
San Antonio is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Golden State
The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Antonio's last 6 games when playing on the road against Golden State
Golden State Warriors
Golden State is 6-15 ATS in its last 21 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Golden State's last 6 games
Golden State is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Golden State is 13-6 SU in its last 19 games at home
Golden State is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Golden State's last 5 games at home
Golden State is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing San Antonio
Golden State is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games when playing San Antonio
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Golden State's last 9 games when playing San Antonio
Golden State is 8-13-2 ATS in its last 23 games when playing at home against San Antonio
Golden State is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against San Antonio
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Golden State's last 6 games when playing at home against San Antonio


Washington Wizards
Washington is 6-13-1 ATS in its last 20 games
Washington is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Washington's last 6 games
Washington is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
Washington is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Washington is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Toronto
Washington is 3-8 SU in its last 11 games when playing Toronto
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Washington's last 11 games when playing Toronto
Washington is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Toronto
Washington is 6-12 SU in its last 18 games when playing on the road against Toronto
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Washington's last 5 games when playing on the road against Toronto
Toronto Raptors
Toronto is 3-10-1 ATS in its last 14 games
Toronto is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Toronto's last 6 games
Toronto is 2-5-1 ATS in its last 8 games at home
Toronto is 17-3 SU in its last 20 games at home
Toronto is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Washington
Toronto is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games when playing Washington
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Toronto's last 11 games when playing Washington
Toronto is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games when playing at home against Washington
Toronto is 12-6 SU in its last 18 games when playing at home against Washington
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Toronto's last 5 games when playing at home against Washington


Miami Heat
Miami is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games
Miami is 2-4-2 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
Miami is 2-12 SU in its last 14 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Miami's last 12 games on the road
Miami is 18-7 SU in its last 25 games when playing Philadelphia
Miami is 12-6 SU in its last 18 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
Miami is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Miami's last 7 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
Philadelphia 76ers
Philadelphia is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 games
Philadelphia is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 5 games
Philadelphia is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games at home
Philadelphia is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Philadelphia is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Miami
Philadelphia is 7-18 SU in its last 25 games when playing Miami
Philadelphia is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Miami
Philadelphia is 6-12 SU in its last 18 games when playing at home against Miami
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 7 games when playing at home against Miami


New Orleans Pelicans
New Orleans is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
New Orleans is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New Orleans's last 5 games
New Orleans is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 games on the road
New Orleans is 10-3 SU in its last 13 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of New Orleans's last 7 games on the road
New Orleans is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Portland
New Orleans is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Portland
New Orleans is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Portland
New Orleans is 2-12 SU in its last 14 games when playing on the road against Portland
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of New Orleans's last 9 games when playing on the road against Portland
Portland Trail Blazers
Portland is 15-5-2 ATS in its last 22 games
Portland is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Portland is 18-7 SU in its last 25 games
Portland is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
Portland is 16-2-2 ATS in its last 20 games at home
Portland is 21-3 SU in its last 24 games at home
Portland is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing New Orleans
Portland is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing New Orleans
Portland is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games when playing at home against New Orleans
Portland is 12-2 SU in its last 14 games when playing at home against New Orleans
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Portland's last 9 games when playing at home against New Orleans
 

Cnotes53

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Long Sheet

Saturday, April 14


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SAN ANTONIO (47 - 35) at GOLDEN STATE (58 - 24) - 4/14/2018, 3:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN ANTONIO is 6-14 ATS (-9.4 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
SAN ANTONIO is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) in road games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season.
SAN ANTONIO is 6-17 ATS (-12.7 Units) in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 129-95 ATS (+24.5 Units) in April games since 1996.
GOLDEN STATE is 56-35 ATS (+17.5 Units) in all playoff games since 1996.
GOLDEN STATE is 24-8 ATS (+15.2 Units) in the first round of the playoffs since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 1045-916 ATS (+37.4 Units) in all games since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 142-108 ATS (+23.2 Units) after a loss by 10 points or more since 1996.
GOLDEN STATE is 33-46 ATS (-17.6 Units) in all games this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 32-41 ATS (-13.1 Units) as a favorite this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 15-24 ATS (-11.4 Units) in home games this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 14-27 ATS (-15.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 4-16 ATS (-13.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
GOLDEN STATE is 9-6 against the spread versus SAN ANTONIO over the last 3 seasons
GOLDEN STATE is 11-4 straight up against SAN ANTONIO over the last 3 seasons
8 of 15 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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WASHINGTON (43 - 39) at TORONTO (59 - 23) - 4/14/2018, 5:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 36-44 ATS (-12.4 Units) in all games this season.
WASHINGTON is 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) in road games against Atlantic division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 68-49 ATS (+14.1 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 3 seasons.
TORONTO is 195-247 ATS (-76.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
TORONTO is 6-5 against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
TORONTO is 8-3 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
8 of 11 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MIAMI (44 - 38) at PHILADELPHIA (52 - 30) - 4/14/2018, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHILADELPHIA is 48-34 ATS (+10.6 Units) in all games this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 33-22 ATS (+8.8 Units) as a favorite this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 27-13 ATS (+12.7 Units) in home games this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 22-12 ATS (+8.8 Units) in the second half of the season this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in home games on Saturday games this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) when playing with 2 days rest over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) against Southeast division opponents this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 60-41 ATS (+14.9 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 20-10 ATS (+9.0 Units) after a win by 10 points or more this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 29-17 ATS (+10.3 Units) after scoring 115 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
MIAMI is 90-70 ATS (+13.0 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 54-35 ATS (+15.5 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 49-30 ATS (+16.0 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 38-24 ATS (+11.6 Units) in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 43-30 ATS (+10.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 24-8 ATS (+15.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season.
MIAMI is 22-11 ATS (+9.9 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
PHILADELPHIA is 6-5 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI is 7-4 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
6 of 11 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NEW ORLEANS (48 - 34) at PORTLAND (49 - 33) - 4/14/2018, 10:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ORLEANS is 44-71 ATS (-34.1 Units) in road games after a win by 10 points or more since 1996.
PORTLAND is 45-30 ATS (+12.0 Units) in all games this season.
PORTLAND is 29-19 ATS (+8.1 Units) as a favorite this season.
PORTLAND is 23-14 ATS (+7.6 Units) in home games this season.
PORTLAND is 20-9 ATS (+10.1 Units) in the second half of the season this season.
PORTLAND is 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season this season.
PORTLAND is 24-15 ATS (+7.5 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season.
PORTLAND is 15-3 ATS (+11.7 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.
PORTLAND is 24-14 ATS (+8.6 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season.
PORTLAND is 15-3 ATS (+11.7 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.
NEW ORLEANS is 45-36 ATS (+5.4 Units) in all games this season.
NEW ORLEANS is 26-15 ATS (+9.5 Units) in road games this season.
NEW ORLEANS is 15-7 ATS (+7.3 Units) in road games after scoring 115 points or more this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
PORTLAND is 6-6 against the spread versus NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
PORTLAND is 6-6 straight up against NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
6 of 12 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Sunday, April 15

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MILWAUKEE (44 - 38) at BOSTON (55 - 27) - 4/15/2018, 1:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MILWAUKEE is 74-91 ATS (-26.1 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 376-456 ATS (-125.6 Units) in the second half of the season since 1996.
MILWAUKEE is 201-247 ATS (-70.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season since 1996.
BOSTON is 48-30 ATS (+15.0 Units) in all games this season.
BOSTON is 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent this season.
BOSTON is 11-1 ATS (+9.9 Units) off an upset win as an underdog this season.
BOSTON is 24-14 ATS (+8.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
BOSTON is 27-15 ATS (+10.5 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season.
MILWAUKEE is 135-98 ATS (+27.2 Units) in road games against Atlantic division opponents since 1996.
MILWAUKEE is 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) in road games after allowing 115 points or more over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
BOSTON is 7-4 against the spread versus MILWAUKEE over the last 3 seasons
BOSTON is 7-4 straight up against MILWAUKEE over the last 3 seasons
7 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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INDIANA (48 - 34) at CLEVELAND (50 - 32) - 4/15/2018, 3:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
INDIANA is 47-35 ATS (+8.5 Units) in all games this season.
INDIANA is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in April games over the last 2 seasons.
INDIANA is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) on Sunday games this season.
INDIANA is 33-18 ATS (+13.2 Units) vs. division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
INDIANA is 74-51 ATS (+17.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
INDIANA is 23-12 ATS (+9.8 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season.
CLEVELAND is 32-49 ATS (-21.9 Units) in all games this season.
CLEVELAND is 19-43 ATS (-28.3 Units) as a favorite this season.
CLEVELAND is 13-27 ATS (-16.7 Units) in home games this season.
CLEVELAND is 20-34 ATS (-17.4 Units) vs. division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) after a loss by 10 points or more this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
INDIANA is 11-4 against the spread versus CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
CLEVELAND is 11-5 straight up against INDIANA over the last 3 seasons
9 of 15 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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UTAH (48 - 34) at OKLAHOMA CITY (48 - 34) - 4/15/2018, 6:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
UTAH is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) on Sunday games over the last 3 seasons.
UTAH is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
UTAH is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 33-47 ATS (-18.7 Units) in all games this season.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 24-41 ATS (-21.1 Units) as a favorite this season.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 15-24 ATS (-11.4 Units) in home games this season.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 19-35 ATS (-19.5 Units) in home games in April games since 1996.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 2-14 ATS (-13.4 Units) vs. division opponents this season.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 7-15 ATS (-9.5 Units) after a win by 10 points or more this season.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 16-25 ATS (-11.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
OKLAHOMA CITY is 7-4 against the spread versus UTAH over the last 3 seasons
OKLAHOMA CITY is 10-2 straight up against UTAH over the last 3 seasons
9 of 12 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MINNESOTA (47 - 35) at HOUSTON (65 - 17) - 4/15/2018, 9:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MINNESOTA is 372-436 ATS (-107.6 Units) in the second half of the season since 1996.
HOUSTON is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) against Northwest division opponents this season.
HOUSTON is 118-88 ATS (+21.2 Units) after 3 or more consecutive unders since 1996.
HOUSTON is 37-50 ATS (-18.0 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in April games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
MINNESOTA is 6-5 against the spread versus HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON is 10-1 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
8 of 11 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
 

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Saturday's NBA Playoffs betting preview and odds

The opening round of the 2018 NBA Playoffs tip off Saturday with four games on the schedule, including the defending champion Warriors taking on the Spurs and the super exciting 76ers looking to extend their 16 game winning streak over to the postseason in their opener against the Heat.

San Antonio Spurs at Golden State Warriors (-8, 206)

The San Antonio Spurs thought they had a chance to knock off the Golden State Warriors in the Western Conference finals last season and held a big lead in Game 1 until superstar Kawhi Leonard went down with an ankle injury. Leonard will be missing again when the teams meet a couple rounds earlier this sping, but Golden State will also be down a man, with former MVP Stephen Curry expected to miss at least this series with a knee sprain.

ABOUT THE SPURS (47-35, 42, 38-2 ATS, 38-44 O/U): Second-year point guard Dejounte Murray found himself thrust into the rotation in the Western Conference finals last season after Tony Parker went down with an injury, but he is more comfortable now after spending most of 2017-18 as the starter. "It's a new year, new playoffs," Murray told reporters. "We've got to execute the game plan. Coach has a good game plan and we've got to go out - it's up to the players to execute the game plan. It's not going to be perfect, but we can still execute and get the best out of it." Murray adds some youth to a roster that leans heavily on the likes of Ginobili, Pau Gasol, age 37, Danny Green, 30, and Rudy Gay, 31.

ABOUT THE WARRIORS (58-24, 34-47-1 ATS, 39-43 O/U): Golden State is 17-14 this season in games missed by Curry, but the team will lean on All-Stars Kevin Durant, Klay Thompson and Draymond Green in the first round. Durant, who dealt with a rib injury late in the regular season, averaged 26.4 points on 51.6 percent shooting and has the confidence of his teammates to lead the way. "We all want Steph to be here," Quinn Cook, who is starting in place of Curry, told reporters, "but it gives us so much confidence knowing that we have another one of the greatest players to ever play the game."

SERIES PRICE (PER PINNACLE):

2lmaxqe.jpg


BETTING ACTION AND LINE MOVES: The Warriors hit the board as low as -6.5 at some shops, but they were quickly moved to the current number of -8. According to William Hill US, the Warriors are seeing a slight majority of the tickets (54 percent), but its the Spurs who are seeing the slight edge in the money wagered (55 percent). The total has seen evn more movement. Since opening at 211, it has dropped five points to 206.

INJURY REPORT:

Spurs - SF K. Leonard (Out, quadricep).

Warriors - A. Iguodala (Probable, knee), PG S. Curry (Out, knee), SG P. McCaw (Out, back), SF C. Boucher (Out, ankle).

MATCHUP CHART:

s2e33q.jpg


TRENDS:

* Spurs are 0-7 ATS in their last seven road games.
* Warriors are 0-5 ATS in their last five home games.
* Over is 5-0 in Spurs last five road games.
* Over is 5-1 in the last six meetings in Golden State.
* Favorite is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.




Washington Wizards at Toronto Raptors (-8, 211)

The Toronto Raptors set a franchise record for wins during the regular season and earned the top seed in the Eastern Conference for the first time in team history. The Raptors will set about trying to make the deepest postseason run in franchise history when they start by hosting the eighth-seeded Washington Wizards in Game 1 of their first-round series on Saturday.

ABOUT THE WIZARDS (43-39, 37-44-1 ATS, 36-44-2 O/U): Washington stumbled to the end of the regular season with losses in nine of the last 12 games to fall from contention for a top-four seed all the way down to eighth in the East. ?If you look at the big picture, we?ve struggled this past 10 days or so,? Wizards coach Scott Brooks told reporters. "But prior to that, the story to me was that we battled and fought and put ourselves into playoff position, and we did it with John (Wall) missing half of the season. For some strange reason, we didn't finish the job. These last 10 or 12 days we?ve been up and down. We've let go of the rope a little bit." Wall missed over two months with a knee injury before returning on March 31 and he averaged 28.5 points and 13.5 rebounds over his last two games.

ABOUT THE RAPTORS (59-23, 43-38-1 ATS, 41-40-1 O/U): Toronto was swept in the first round by the Wizards in 2015 but is a different team now with only three players remaining from that squad, so it will try to avenge that loss and acheive another milestone, winning Game 1 of a first-round postseason series for the first time. "It's a phenomenon," Raptors coach Dwane Casey told reporters. "There is always that one hurdle you've got to overcome. That's the major one we've got to overcome. "It's got to be mental more than anything." All-Star point guard Kyle Lowry, who combined with fellow All-Star DeMar DeRozan to go 9-of-32 from the field in a Game 1 loss to the Milwaukee Bucks last spring, suggested the team approach Game 1 like a Game 7.

SERIES PRICE (PER PINNACLE):

29eocg4.jpg


BETTING ACTION AND LINE MOVES: The Raptors opened as 8-point home favorites at most books. They dropped to -7.5 at some shops, but are back to the opening number at most places. That being said, bettors are hammering the Wizards ATS according to William Hill US, who are seeing 68 percent of tickets and a whopping 94 percent of the dollars wagerd on this game. The total opened at 211.5 and has seen little movement, with the current number at 211.

INJURY REPORT:

Wizards - SF O. Porter Jr. (Questionable, calf), PF M. Scott (Questionable, concussion).

Raptors - PF S. Ibaka (Probable, mouth), C L. Nogueira (Questionable, hamstring), PG F. VanVleet (Questionable, shoulder), PF P. Siakam (Questionable, shoulder).

MATCHUP CHART:

htu1ra.jpg


TRENDS:

* Wizards are 1-7 ATS in their last eight road games.
* Raptors are 0-5-1 ATS in their last six home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
* Over is 9-3 in Wizards last 12 vs. Atlantic Division opponents.
* Under is 12-2 in the last 14 meetings in Toronto.
* Wizards are 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings in Toronto.




Miami Heat at Philadelphia 76ers (-6.5, 212)

The Philadelphia 76ers enter the postseason on a roll but will be without All-Star center Joel Embiid when they host the Miami Heat in Saturday's opening game of the Eastern Conference first-round series. Embiid missed the final eight games of the regular season with an orbital fracture but his absence didn't stop the 76ers from stretching their winning streak to a franchise-record 16 straight games.

ABOUT THE HEAT (44-38, 40-36-6 ATS, 37-44-1 O/U): All-Star point guard Goran Dragic missed the regular-season finale with a bone bruise in his right knee but indicated that he expects to be in the lineup for Saturday's opener. "I'm doing everything that I can," Dragic told reporters. "Probably, I'm going to feel it a little bit, but it's not going to bother me. That's the only thing that I'm about, I can play through the pain." Dragic leads the squad in scoring (17.3) and assists (4.8) and his fitness will be crucial as he will be called on to slow down standout Philadelphia rookie Ben Simmons.

ABOUT THE 76ERS (52-30, 47-33-2 ATS, 41-40-1 O/U): Simmons recorded 10 or more assists on 10 occasions during Philadelphia's 16-game winning streak and he averages 15.8 points, 8.2 assists and 8.1 rebounds. He recorded 12 triple-doubles, second all-time among rookies behind legendary Oscar Robertson (26 in 1960-61) and either Simmons or Utah guard Donovan Mitchell will win Rookie of the Year honors. The 76ers have fared well without Embiid's 22.9 points and 11 rebounds and that impressed coach Brett Brown with one disclaimer - "I feel like what we've been doing without Joel is good, but what you should hear completely the loudest is that I can't wait for him to get back," Brown told reporters.

SERIES PRICE (PER PINNACLE):

2ljnc4k.jpg


BETTING ACTION AND LINE MOVES: The Sixers hit the board as 6.5-point home favorites and have been bet as high as -7.5 before returning to the opening number. The total opened at 210 and is up two points to 212. Bettors like the 76ers in this spot, with Philly seeing 75 percent of the tickets and 86 percent of the money for Game 1.

INJURY REPORT:

Heat - PG G. Dragic (Probable, knee), C H. Whiteside (Questionable, undisclosed), SG D. Waiters (Out, ankle).

76ers - SG J. Reddick (Questionable, back), C J. Embiid (Doubtful, eye), SG T. Luwawu-Cabarrot (Out, knee).

MATCHUP CHART:

2iw6obd.jpg


TRENDS:

* Heat are 8-3-3 ATS in their last 14 games following an ATS win.
* 76ers are 6-0 ATS in their last six games playing on two days rest.
* Over is 9-3 in Heat last 12 road games.
* Under is 6-0 in 76ers last six games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game.
* Home team is 6-1-1 ATS in the last eight meetings.




New Orleans Pelicans at Portland Trail Blazers (-5.5, 217)

Five-time All-Star Anthony Davis has never been part of a postseason victory during his stellar career and he looks to change that fact when the New Orleans Pelicans open their Western Conference first-round series on Saturday against the host Portland Trail Blazers.

ABOUT THE PELICANS (48-34, 45-36-1 ATS, 47-35 O/U): Sixth-seeded New Orleans won its final five games of the regular season and recorded its third-highest victory total (48) in franchise history, and the prime reason is the 25-year-old Davis, the star power forward who averaged 28.1 points, 11.1 rebounds and 2.6 blocked shots. The Pelicans were swept in four games by the Golden State Warriors in 2015 in Davis' lone previous playoff experience, where he averaged 31.5 points, 11 rebounds and three blocked shots. New Orleans persevered despite a season-ending injury to All-Star center DeMarcus Cousins with Holiday (career-high 19-point average) among the players who picked up the scoring slack.

ABOUT THE TRAIL BLAZERS (49-33, 45-32-5 ATS, 35-47 O/U): Having homecourt advantage is big for a Portland team that won 21 of its last 24 home contests and is supremely confident inside the Moda Center. The Trail Blazers are hoping center Jusuf Nurkic will be up to the task of slowing Davis while also building on his career-best averages of 14.3 points and nine rebounds to go along with a career-high 27 double-doubles. Shooting guard CJ McCollum (21.4) is a strong scoring complement to Lillard but his second-worst outing of the season came against the Pelicans just two-plus weeks ago, when he tallied seven points on 3-of-19 shooting.

SERIES PRICE (PER PINNACLE):

4sfqt4.jpg


BETTING ACTION AND LINE MOVES: The Blazers opened as 5.5-point home favorites at most books and that's where the number remains as of Friday night. The total also hasn't seen much movement, currently sitting at the opening number of 217. While the Pelicans are seeing a slight edge in tickets written (52 percent) according to William Hill US, the Blazers are seeing a good majority of the money (67 percent).

INJURY REPORT:

Pelicans - C A. Ajinca (Out, knee), PG F. Jackson (Out, foot), C D. Cousins (Out, achilles).

Blazers - SF M. Harkless (Out, knee), SG C. Wilcox (Out, knee).

MATCHUP CHART:

fwluah.jpg


TRENDS:

* Pelicans are 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.
* Trail Blazers are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games vs. a team with a winning SU record.
* Under is 7-2-1 in Pelicans last 10 games vs. a team with a winning SU record.
* Over is 6-1 in Trail Blazers last seven games following a ATS win.
* Favorite is 10-3 ATS in the last 13 meetings.
 

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NBA Playoffs 4-point play: Best ways to bet today?s NBA odds

The NBA Playoffs are here and there are a number of statistics and betting trends that have us going hmmmmm?.

For instance:


The road has not been kind to the San Antonio Spurs this season. The Spurs went 15-24-2 against the spread away from the AT&T Center and 3-16 ATS as road underdogs. San Antonio averaged 5.5 fewer points per game when it was on the road compared to when it played on its home floor.

The Golden State Warriors, meanwhile, are 14-5 against the spread when giving 9.5 or fewer points at home in the playoffs since 2015. Oddsmakers have the Dubs as 8-point home favorites against the Spurs in Game 1 Saturday.

Here are three other betting need-to-know angles we have our eyes on for the first day of the 2018 NBA Playoffs.

Raptors Game 1 struggles

The Toronto Raptors are 1-12 straight up and 2-11 against the spread in Game 1 of the 13 NBA playoff series they?ve been a part of. Even worse, the Dinos are 0-7 SU and ATS in Game 1 of playoff matchups in the Kyle Lowry/DeMar DeRozan era.

Be on the lookout for player props for Bradley Beal in this series. The Wizards shooting guard averaged 28.8 points in four games against the Raptors this season ? which was his highest average against an Eastern Conference opponent. He averaged 22.6 points per game on the campaign overall and his Over/Under point total for Saturday's Game 1 is set at 22.5 (Over -120).

Sixers pushing the pace

Joel Embiid doesn?t sound like he?ll be playing in Game 1 of the Philadelphia 76ers-Miami Heat series because of his facial injury but he's expected to return to the Sixers? lineup at some point during the first round of the playoffs.

Philly enters the postseason riding a 16-game winning streak with nine of those victories coming with Embiid missing all or most of the game. The 76ers are Ben Simmons? team without Embiid on the floor and the rookie point forward likes to push the pace.

Philadelphia averaged three more possessions per 48 minutes without Embiid on the floor after the All-Star break and played with the fastest tempo in the Association over the final 15 games of the regular season.

The Game 1 total (212) is the lowest Over/Under line in a Sixers game since March 13th.

Pelicans soar in clutch situations

The Pelicans outscored their opponents after the All-Star break by 20.6 points per 100 possessions in clutch situations. Clutch is defined as any point with five or fewer minutes left in the fourth quarter or overtime and the game score separated by five or fewer points.

It might be worth taking a flyer on the Pelicans if they?re down a few buckets in the fourth quarter and are paying a decent return on the live in-game board.

And don?t forget about playoff Rondo for all you player prop bettors. Rajon Rondo hasn?t seen much action in postseason games over the last few years but it?s apparent he ratchets up his game to another level this time of the year.

He was a big part of the reason the Bulls went 2-0 up on the No. 1 seed Boston Celtics in the first round of the playoffs last spring. Rondo averaged 11.5 points, 10 assists, 8.5 rebounds and 3.5 steals in two games before picking up an injury that kept him out for the rest of the series against Boston. Rondo's points/rebounds/assists prop total is set at 23.5 (Over -120) for Game 1 Saturday.
 

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SATURDAY, APRIL 14
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS


SA at GS 03:00 PM
GS -8.0
O 206.5


WAS at TOR 05:30 PM
WAS +8.0
U 211.0


MIA at PHI 08:00 PM
MIA +6.0
U 215.5


NO at POR 10:30 PM
POR -5.5
O 217.5
 
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