Ron - You're welcome, and thanks for stopping in. Good luck to you this season.
Recap:1-0
Record:13-14
Got a W in a game where it looked like I was dead in the water right from the git.
I had Un 44 in UTEP/FIU.
UTEP, who barely averages 17 points per game, scores 21 points in just the first 11 minutes of the first quarter.
I almost changed the channel thinking this one is over ("over" as in Ov 44 and "over" as in finished, not even worth watching anymore.)
But then I remembered - it's college, ANYTHING can happen. Remember the Syracuse game back on 9/13? I had Ov 56'. They had 52 at halftime.
I only needed 5 in the entire second half. Easy W right? No, the two teams combined for just 3 pts in the second half, and I got stuck with a loser.
But as the saying goes, "What comes around, goes around" and Karma was about to come around my way and make up for that Syracuse debacle.
UTEP game has 31 pts at halftime, I'm barely hanging on. But only 7 pts in the 3rd Q had me starting the final fifteen minutes still Un by just 6 pts.
Game lands 41. A game I almost turned off turned out to be the best game (from a fun-to-watch point of view) of the season.
NEXT!
Okay, I'll try to make this brief and uncomplicated. As noted in week two of this season I had a play I used for about 18 years that I lost this year after week one because my data source no longer existed, and I was left without my main play to 'cap. Since then I've been relying on one situational play. But I kept doing research and found something that I think may be valuable.
It's the spot I gave as my reason for taking the UTEP game Under:
"An 0-2 spot this season says play this one Ov, so I'm fading it. It's a new situational spot I found this week while running numbers, not a lot of data but it's also 2-4 when it says take the Un for a combined 2-6 so I'm gonna ride it until the record reverses."
It's now 0-3 on Overs, a Fade of 3-0. Unders are 2-4, so a combined 2-7, or a solid 7-2 Fade.
Yes, not a lot of data but there's this, too:
NFL is 1-7 Ov, 2-1 Un, a Fade of 8-3.
College and pro are 1-10 on Overs. Will it continue? Hell if I know, but that's part of the fun for me. Digging for gold and seeing if the vein has staying power.
Need a way to designate and differentiate the two plays. Since it's the newer of the two spots I'm capping and posting I'll refer to this one as the New Play (NP) and the play I've been using all season thus far as OP (Other Play.)
OP is at 34-24, a respectable 58%; Ov 23-18, Un 11-6.
NP is at 2-7; Ov 0-3, Un 2-4.
Here's what I have left to choose from this week.
OP
Ov in SMU/E Car, Stan/Col, Ark/'Bama
Un in Temple/N Tex, Mass/Penn St
NP
Ov in Mich St/Rutgers, UNLV/Nev
Un Ark/'Bama
Like I said in my last post regarding the UTEP spot, "I'm gonna ride it until the record reverses" so I'm buying the 9am MIch/Rutgers spot.
I missed the best # on it, opened 40, now at 39', but the line drop of 2/2' pts didn't affect last night's UTEP spot, hopefuly won't matter here either.
After I get results from the early game I'll decide whether or not I'll Fade the other Over (UNLV/Nev at 2PM), too (missed the best # on that one too, by a whopping 3 pts, so I'll likely stay off it.)
The 'Bama game is a tough call for me. It's an easy decision to take the Ov based on the records.
NP says take the Un and those are 2-4 and the Old Play says take it Ov, and those are 23-18, not great, but winning.
Ark is 1-0 in this spot and 'Bama is 4-0 in this spot this season and though that combined 5-0 looks great there's that whole "Jump on the bandwagon/Johnny come lately" thing that hate, jumping on a play that I stayed off and it won, and I've done that two straight weeks now with 'Bama in this spot.
F'uk it, I'm buying it, if I get zapped I deserve it for not buying it the last two times it was active.
Buys:
SMU/E Car Ov 51
Mich St/Rutgers Un 39'
Ark/'Bama Ov (wait, the # is dropping)
Temple/N Tex Un 70