Divisional for Jord
- Thread starter Jord20
- Start date
Allen had a wide open middle on 2nd and 3rd down. Diggs probably scores on 2nd down.
- Sep 1, 2012
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Just unreal. The football gods gave them that touchback and they lose.
Mahomes got me good last year in the superbowl. Brady used to get me back when I bet heavier and drank. Hated him for being so good for years and bet against him to fail for too long. Cost me lots. Mahomes may be on his way to being better as he figures it out with whoever he has on the field eventually. And can scramble as well and pass on the run. I guess KC is the Patriots of the 2020's. I thought Buffalo was going to get them today.
And, THIS, when all said and done, is the most relevant post!
- Sep 1, 2012
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- Jul 3, 2022
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He always posts it, just find it funny he doesn't post that when he's on the same team.
I've had way too many people bitch about TB going for 2 (mostly because they lost +6/6.5 lmao). So here is the simple explanation about why you absolutely 100% have to go for 2 (and it's not close). Going to OT is NOT winning - in fact you are only 50/50 (and in the dog's case - even less). Kicking two extra points maximizes the chance to reach overtime. Attempting a 2-point conversion when down eight points late maximizes the chance to win the game, which is the ultimate goal.
So basic assumptions... 100% XP (it's actually less obviously)... 50% 2 point conversion (this is right about where it is leaguewide)...You score 2 TDs and the other team doesn't
Kick XPs... 50% (make both XPs) and 50/50 in OT... so you go to OT and win 50% of the time
Go for 2...
50% you make the first 2pt… 100% you make the XP time 2… 50% you win outright with no OT
25% of the time you miss both 2 pts - lose
25% of the time you miss the 1st 2 point, and get the 2nd _then you win half the OT games, so another 12.5% of the time (.50 *.50) * .50
50% +12.5% = 62.5%... (This seems higher than 50 to me 😊)
12.5% increase in win expectancy going for 2 the first time down 14 late in a game. You can adjust the percentages based on team/personnel, and anything reasonable leads you to the same answer.... ALWAYS GO FOR 2 Late in a game down 14!
So basic assumptions... 100% XP (it's actually less obviously)... 50% 2 point conversion (this is right about where it is leaguewide)...You score 2 TDs and the other team doesn't
Kick XPs... 50% (make both XPs) and 50/50 in OT... so you go to OT and win 50% of the time
Go for 2...
50% you make the first 2pt… 100% you make the XP time 2… 50% you win outright with no OT
25% of the time you miss both 2 pts - lose
25% of the time you miss the 1st 2 point, and get the 2nd _then you win half the OT games, so another 12.5% of the time (.50 *.50) * .50
50% +12.5% = 62.5%... (This seems higher than 50 to me 😊)
12.5% increase in win expectancy going for 2 the first time down 14 late in a game. You can adjust the percentages based on team/personnel, and anything reasonable leads you to the same answer.... ALWAYS GO FOR 2 Late in a game down 14!
