Doral

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lostinamerica

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Oct 10, 2001
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FLORIDA: If you think they can't vote, wait till you see them drive.

OUTRIGHTS:

Nick Faldo(100/1) for 0.50* e.w. @ Bet365
I see a live dog.

Briny Baird(125/1) for 0.50* e.w. @ Bet365
I'll say that the son of Butch is not going to win many putting contests at this level, but he has given me no reason not to think that his name will make multiple appearances on the Sunday leaderboard at Doral during his career. I think his two top ten finishes this season is the key stat in assessing his current form, and on top of that, without checking the record, it sure seems to me that over at least the last 14 months, a player showing some good form that heads to a familiar stomping ground after being shown an early exit has been striking in their ability to come up big.

Nick Price(20/1 and 16/1) for 0.50* e.w. @ Bet365
His record speaks for itself. He has been put through the wringer the last two weeks, and gauging how that circumstance plays out in his performance this week had me slow to commit to my full stake wager.

Scott Hoch(66/1) for 0.50* e.w @ Bet365
This is the first week in I don't know how long in which my first inclination has been to back Hoch instead of oppose him. I'll say he joins a large group of players that seemed to be attractively priced in a field without Woods or Els, and then remained attractive after I first heard mention of the fact that Singh and Mickelson had withdrawn. He's had his moments in Florida, the premium on shotmaking at Doral should appeal to him and play to the strengths of his all around game, he was comfortably under par and looked polished while taking a center stage waxing at the hands of Woods, and there is no denying that plenty of stalwarts in the old guard have been putting up a pretty solid stand this year as compared to last year at this time when it seemed like a procession of surprising faces were rising up as the flavor of the week.

Stewart Cink(50/1 and 40/1) for 0.50* e.w. @ Bet365
Looky who's finally back on a leaderboard. It's about time, and this seems a spot with some potential for moving forward off the form of recent weeks. I also nominate Cink for emerging as the poster child last week for a core of players that might be spurred on a bit by the unpleasant taste of having been a bystander to the proceedings on the much bigger stage (WGC match play event) that they were either used to sharing and expect to be a part of, or they just missed out on when the dust settled for that event.

MATCHUPS

The season is still young, but I'm certainly thinking that over the long haul I need to invest in more 72 hole matchups and fewer 18 hole minefields, but I also like getting involved and trusting my judgment after I invest my time in watching the proceedings unfold. I'm trying to do the right thing with a lengthy list before morning arrives in Dubai and Miami, but there was one matchup that was little more than point and click when it first came out.

Appleby(+120) over Duval (Tournament - Ties Push) for 1* @ Bet365

GL
 

Shadetree

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Two more picks

Two more picks

Cink +140 Lonard [5 Dimes]

I actually like Lonard -- he is on my fantasy golf team, in fact -- but I do not believe that he has a greater than 58% chance beat Cink this week. I would give Lonard only a slight edge overall, based mainly on his recent strong play; this match is too close to pass up at odds of +140.


Roberts +120 Huston [Sirbet]

It seems like every week, there is at least one good opportunity to back Roberts. Although he was rated as the biggest whiner by his peers, he is probably the most consistent golfer on tour. Roberts has made the cut in 19 of his last 20 stroke play events, including an impressive 14 top 30 finishes. Huston is of similar quality and I view this match as a toss-up.
 

Theboundbook

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I have these lines here:

101 F Funk +105 Ford Championship Matchups
04:47 AM 102 102 C Dimarco -125
03/06/2003 103 103 D Toms -105 Ford Championship Matchups
04:56 AM 104 104 J Furyk -115
03/06/2003 105 105 Maruyama -130 Ford Championship Matchups
09:08 AM 106 106 S Verplank +110
03/06/2003 107 107 J Huston +140 Ford Championship Matchups
08:59 AM 108 108 N Price -160
109 109 L Janzen +170 Ford Championship Matchups
08:59 AM 110 110 N Price -200
03/06/2003 111 111 S Appleby -115 Ford Championship Matchups
04:29 AM 112 112 D Duval -105
03/06/2003 113 113 M Weir -110 Ford Championship Matchups
04:38 AM 114 114 D Toms -110
03/06/2003 115 115 J Furyk -110 Ford Championship Matchups
04:56 AM 116 116 N Price -110
03/06/2003 117 117 S Hoch -115 Ford Championship Matchups
04:29 AM 118 118 J Sluman -105
03/06/2003 119 119 S Verplank -115 Ford Championship Matchups
08:41 AM 120 120 J Haas -105
03/06/2003 121 121 S Maruyama -105 Ford Championship Matchups
04:47 AM 122 122 C Dimarco -115
03/06/2003 123 123 KJ CHoi -130 Ford Championship Matchups
04:38 AM 124 124 F Funk +110
03/06/2003 125 125 P Lonard -150 Ford Championship Matchups
04:20 AM 126 126 S Cink +130
03/06/2003 127 127 J Huston -120 Ford Championship Matchups
08:59 AM 128 128 L Roberts Even
03/06/2003 129 129 K Perry Even Ford Championship Matchups
04:38 AM 130 130 T Herron -120
03/06/2003 131 131 L Jenzen -115 Ford Championship Matchups
04:11 AM 132 132 B Tway -105
03/06/2003 133 133 R Pampling -120 Ford Championship Matchups
04:20 AM 134 134 J Rollins Even
03/06/2003 135 135 S Appleby -120 Ford Championship Matchups
04:38 AM 136 136 L Mattiace Even
03/06/2003 137 137 Donald -170 Ford Championship Matchups
04:56 AM 138 138 B Pappas +140


Any thoughts on them?
 
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warner

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doral

doral

had another good week last week only one losing week this year was up 275 for a total of 1022 for hope i can keep up my good fortune my goal is 3000
donald 0 pappas 320/200
price 0 janzen 300/200
lonard 0 cink 160/100
price 0 huston 155/100
appleby 0 duval 100/110
dimarco 0 funk 60/50
toms 0 fuyrk 55/50
alot of plays and alot juice hope for the big ones to hit
are you guys noiticing the large line changes this year the price janzen match is now at -200
 

steved

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Feb 9, 2002
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final player I could not resist at price...

0.5 ew Alker 200/1 (VC), multiple winner in Canada (2000 OOM winner), and Oz, won on Buy.com last year. Steady improvement this year to 17th in Buick last time. Last round 76 in Buick might be a wobble, as was last round 74 in AT&T, but as he is a winner, will give him another chance......2 shots better in Buick would have meant 4th place...Is a Kiwi, so reckon he will like the bermuda as well.
 

lostinamerica

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MATCHUPS:

I went with this mixed bag.

Weir(-130) over Toms (Tournament) for 1* @ 5dimes
Funk(+105) over DiMarco (Tournament) for 1* @ 5dimes

Cabrera(+350) over Maruyama/Huston/Elkington/Haas (Tournament) for 0.50* @ Bet365

Sluman(+160) over Duval/Azinger (Thursday) for 1* @ Bet365
Hoch(+175) over Toms/Willis (Thursday) for 1* @ Bet365

GL
 
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Theboundbook

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Placed these last night:

Wagered by: Internet On: 2003/03/05 10:44 PM

Straight 100/105 Pending


Other 101 F Funk over C Dimarco ML +105 Pending

Straight 105/100 Pending


Other 103 D Toms over J Furyk ML -105 Pending

Straight 110/100 Pending


Other 113 M Weir over D Toms ML -110 Pending

Straight 91/100 Pending


Other 124 F Funk over HJ Choi ML +110 Pending
 

DOGS THAT BARK

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drat! 365 dropped Price to 40/1 in running and someone gouged it down to 28/1 before I could get it in. Will wait now and see what deveops but will try and sneakhim in some how.

1sr rd 1-0
Cink over Romero win.
Nothing Cink did but Romero came thru.Can't lose all wagers on Cink anyway.

2nd rd.
Strange occurance yesterday!
Most of top scores came in am despite that they had the 10-15 mph winds compared 5-7 in pm I am thinking these players got to be having tough time with grain in pm. Especially coming off west coast with no bermuda. If the norm occurs tomorrow with wind in pm as predicted instead on am could be worth about 2 shots.

Will take a stab at a few @ 5dimes with am/pm mismatches
Maru -105 vs Hoch
Mayfair -125 vs Toledo
Price -107 vs Weir
Smith -120 vs Rinker
I can not understand this last one. I know this Rinker and he is WEAK!

and adding one at $plays with similiar tees
Appleby -105 vs Gossett.
 

lostinamerica

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Oct 10, 2001
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OUTRIGHTS:

Franco(16/1) for 0.40* e.w. @ Bet365
I think the Miami resident looks a good choice for having the greens figured out and finding them to his liking.

FRIDAY:

Franco(+170) over Herron/Tanaka for 1* @ Bet365
Franco(+112) over Ames for 1* @ 5dimes
I see solid opportunities, but I'm not exactly overdue.

Sluman(+138) over Duval/Azinger for 1* @ Bet365
Still looks right.

PARLAY Hoch(+138) over Toms/Willis WITH Weir(+110) over Choi/Perry for 0.50* @ 3.99/1 @ Bet365
Leftovers.

GL
 
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Stanley

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Mid-point update:

Cabrera/Duval WON by 10
Cabrera/Elkington LOST by 5
Price/Choi Trails by 2
Price/Janzen Trails by 4
Verplank/Kendall Trails by 1
Verplank/Mattiace Trails by 5
Cink/Perez WON by 4

Weir 6th
Furyk 2nd
Price 69th

Very fortunate situation at the cut. In the only remaining matchups, the two selections finished on the cut mark when it was touch and go all day whether it would end there or one less. So survive for another (two) days and maybe some of the matchup deficits can be reversed. Given a look at the players on the leaderboard, there should be every chance of a good return from Furyk and Weir in the outrights.
 

DOGS THAT BARK

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At the cut >72 holes 2-0 and 1 remaining> 2nd rd 1-1-3

72 holes
Cink/Perez win
Cink/Rollins win
pending
Donald/Pappas 1 down

2nd rd
Maru/Hoch push
Appleby/Gossett push
Smith/Rinker push
Mayfair/Toledo win
Price/Weir loss

outrights Cink gone,Elk 11th
Amazing!Catch 5dimes lining mixed tees for 1st time in while
and have what I think is distinct adv and what happens. Not a couple or the majority but every swinging dick in 2nd rd plays shoots from 3 to 6 strokes over his score in prior rd in worse conditions. That is even out of Murphs realm.

adding an outright at Oly to place
Sluman 15/1
 

sports student

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DTB 5 dimes must be watching your plays as 3 of 4 plays that you made for 3rd round are not there anymore. Your going to have to start making some fake ones and then reverse them when the line goes up-as long as you do not scare them right off the board! :) I assume the reason they took most of your plays off was because of the am-pm angle. Only Maru-Hoch is left at -117
 
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DOGS THAT BARK

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adding 3rd rd
Outright to place @ Oly
Mattiace 9/1

3rd rd plays
Furyk -130 over Tway @ $plays
@ WSEX - 1/2 stroke
Hoch -115 over Pampling
Appleby -125 over Mayfair
Maru -125 over Pernice
 

DOGS THAT BARK

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3rd rd results 1-2-1

3rd rd plays
Furyk -130 over Tway @ $plays Push
@ WSEX - 1/2 stroke
Hoch -115 over Pampling Win
Appleby -125 over Mayfair Loss
Maru -125 over Pernice Loss WD

Anyone know scoop on Maru? I am thinking last score I seen was on his 3rd hole.
 

nakor

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Hell of a 'finish'. Thanks to Stanley I have Furyk at 20-1... decided to hedge at Bet365 taking Hoch +100 for 8 units. I have to think at this point it's 50-50 to win and would prefer to lock in a profit.

Oh, thanks Stanley ;) The picks of yours I've been able to play have returned +62.75% - not counting Furyk.
 

DOGS THAT BARK

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finals remaining 72 holes 0-0-1
Donald/Pappas Push

Outrights Cink-Cut Mattiace-64th-Elk-27th
Sluman-22

Matches
week 5-3-5 +1.43 units
ytd 47-39 ytd +4.6

Outrights
week -4 units ytd +7 units

Considering 7 of 10 rd by rd players shot their worse rd of tourney in the rd they were wagered on and didn't have any of 5 pushes at Euro's I guess I'll consider myself fortunte.
 

lostinamerica

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Using my posted stakes, Hoch has already delivered (16.5/1)(0.25*) = 4.13* with a Top 5 finish. I'm in with a modest hedge on Furyk to Win of 3.33*(-120) @ Olympic. Using my posted stakes, the intent and result is to earn (3.33)/(0.25) = 13.32/1 with a Furyk Win and shave the payoff odds on a Hoch Win from 66/1 to 50/1. lostinamerica, indeed.

Jackie Gleason with the call from Miami Beach: "And away we go . . ."

GL
 
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Stanley

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Final update:

Matchups: 4-3-0; -1.58 units

Price/Choi LOST by 1
Price/Janzen TIED (Push)
Verplank/Kendall LOST by 6
Verplank/Mattiace WON by 2

Outrights: 1-2; +0.00 units

Weir 14th
Furyk 2nd
Price 48th

Got lucky with the cut and at least it counted. Verplank won one of his matches and Price got a push in one though it could have been a lot better had he played the back nine so poorly. Big loss on the week across all Tours. But when you have selections in three events leading for the majority of the final day only to finish 2nd in each case, it could have been so very different.

PGA Tour ytd
Matchups: 35-13; +11.78 units
Outrights: 7-19; +8.95 units

All Tours ytd
Matchups: 84-54; +18.15 units
Outrights: 19-61; +12.78 units
 
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