early line on Mosley-Forrest.

[TheShrimp]

I've seen it at -110/-110 at one site and -120/-120 at another.

First of all, that 40 cent line (at WSEX) is INSANE and a rotten thing to do to the bettors. Maybe they're trying to avoid a middle in case it moves. I think its cowardly and crooked.

Second, I think -110 is a GREAT bet on Mosley. He came into the last fight as a 5:1 favorite. Now its EVEN?

Forrest got in on his chin in that bout, but I still think Mosley is a better fighter and should win this rematch. Mosley was 1 or 2 on almost everybodys' pound for pound list. he loses one fight where he got plugged early and now he's even with this guy? Very strange to me.

Anyway, I'm putting a unit on Mosley NOW. If this line moves I can't see it getting cheaper on Sugar Shane.

TheShrimp

 

[TheShrimp]

dang -- just looked around a little. At SIA, they have him at +125 in three-way betting.

That's a hell of a price on this guy.

 

[cooz3]

ill bite shrimp...people have short memories....this guy is a quality fighter who may have came in a little overconfident last time...he has seen him once so he knows what to expect in this one...ill take mosely at that nice price..cooz

 

[gardenweasel]

interesting

interesting

if mosely is the underdog(and i think he will end up the favorite),you should get on board now...my one beef with olympic is they very seldom post early odds on this stuff....as for the fight itself,i would take mosely as a dog,but,he has now been beaten twice by forrest(once in the amateurs),and i`m wondering if this may become a mental hurdle for him...styles make fights and mosely obviously has trouble with forrest(forrest is a very good defensive fighter and has proven he can severely hurt mosely)....i do think that mosely`s flash earned him much more media attention than forrest,and in truth,he may not actually be the better fighter....mosely is short armed and he`s going to have to work his way inside and that will be dangerous...very interesting to see how his first loss affects him....i`m a little put off by the excuse that the butt renderred him helpless from the second round on...i`m wavering on this one for now......good boxing post (as usual)shrimp.....throwing a couple bucks away on mercer tonight(let the 4-1 odds slip to 3-1 before biting)...what else is new after losing with morales.....am burning money lately.:shrug:

 

[Dutchmasta]

Yesterday's fight...

Yesterday's fight...

You guys missed a good value on yesterdays fight between Teddy Reid and Germaine Sanders. Reid was a -105 underdog. He easily won the fight with a 3rd round KO. Oh well though can't change the past.

I'm curious to know everybody's thoughts on tonights heavyweight matchup and the total.

Current odds for the over 6 rounds is the fav at -185 I think at Olympic now.

 

[fletcher]

wont even be a fight,it will be a beating.

 

[gardenweasel]

fletch is probably right

fletch is probably right

olympic just moved from mercer+300 to +500......i think klitschko is -700.....those odds are outrageous....they are begging us to take mercer...and i(as usual) am taking mercer+500 for a little bit...probably throwing the money away,but,i can`t pass up those odds...i`m gonna hit one of these longshots(eventually :shrug: ).....i feel like there is an outside shot....klitschko was outlasted by journeyman ross purrity(i`m trying to rationalize my bet )...gl

 

[fletcher]

told you i had the -500 here and the ko-160 so happy all around he beat the shit out of him this guy can smash and with speed.

 

[Dutchmasta]

Round Total...

Round Total...

damn and I bet the under...under 6 rounds

 

[gardenweasel]

congrats to fletch

congrats to fletch

for having the balls to lay -500....way to go.

 

[fletcher]

hell gw your a ring man you know thats a mid range number in this sport,its like 180-200 in baseball. i was worried about not getting ko but theres a first for everything,the cut made for the ko without it i think he would of just taken a beating for the whole fight because he wouldnot of quit.

think lewis can take him but he will be a force only 21. wondering about bryd now he can't punch with him thats for sure. but he has the boxing skills but hard to box if you get your dome knocked off

 

[gardenweasel]

mercer never threw the right hand

mercer never threw the right hand

when you can`t get off you know it`s time to hang `em up...41 is over the hill in almost any sport...but,klitschko really has a complete arsenal to go along with the tremendous size(he`s also pretty quick)....i`m still not sure about the heart and stamina factors.......lennox lewis is a different animal,but,klitschko has the tools...gl....mosely-forrest up next....a tough call.

 

[Dutchmasta]

6 full rounds not 6 total rounds

6 full rounds not 6 total rounds

I guess I won my bet. I thought it was 6 rounds over or under, but it was 6 full rounds.

 

[fletcher]

yes it didnot go into the 7th you won,hell he could of ended it in the 2nd,but then he looked like he wanted work ,like i said lucky for the cut,because he really battered him then,man he took some hard as stright rights to the grill right down the pipe i thought his neck my snap off.

working on suger shane just don't know if he has the last fight in the back of his head but i think he is just a tad better but lots to look at but i am like you gw don't want to wait to long because the line will shift soon.

 

[Dutchmasta]

Tonight's fight...

Tonight's fight...

Mercer was gettin some decent jabs in which were very few. I knew Mercer didn't stand a chance. His comeback fights were all nobodies. After that 1st round I thought it would have only taken another round or two to dispose of him. So Fletcher -500 is a midrange number. How much did you lay? If -500 is a midrange line then I came upon a couple of gems these last two days with the Reid fight at -105 and the under on this fight at +155 eventually +170 before the fight.

 

[fletcher]

when your looking at a side low is anything below 200 that means should be a close fight avg is 220 280 then midrage upto about 550 because most fights like that are midrage missmatches then you have your miss matches 750-1200 range and then forget after that when it hits 700 i play or look for an under 6-8 rounds if its low say 120-380 i look for the full 12 for an over under as for how much don't like to talk but its not like 5 dimes in the lessthen 2000 but more then 5 range on this one this line should of been 850+ mercer had no chance at all,hbo tried to make it sound that he did before it started but they are wrong over 60% of the time on tight fights its hype,they werenot going to have him in a fight that he couldnot win or the whole plan would of been shot for boxing and the heavy wt money and pay per veiw soon to come with lewis,when it happens it will be a money maker for all involved.

you have to pick and choose you bouts to bet on in boxing can not bet all lined fights has to have meaning behind the whole boxing scene.

 

[SMOKE JENSEN]

MY EARLY LEANS:

Forrest- to much height & reach advantage.

Kurt Johnson- I said in an earlier thread that I thought that Ruiz wouldn't beat anybody in the top 10. I still stand by that.

Vargas- oscar being the smaller man and being a one handed fighter will cost him. Vargas will be very up for this fight.

 

[TheShrimp]

Klitschko looked very dominant. I couldn't see him losing but I stayed away from betting. He and his brother have tired in late rounds before and I thought if Mercer kept the fight going to the late rounds, he would still have a chance. Without the cut, I think he would have gone 12.

Hard to tell if VK is ready for Lewis. Probably not yet. He looked so good, but he had a stationary target sittting in front of him. He probably had sparring partners getting ready for this one that put up more offense than mercer did. He does hit hard. He moves his head. He works the jab. He's built just like Lewis. I think that could be a great fight.

I really see him as an eventual champ. I suppose he'll need to beat a Ruiz/Johnson/McCline before getting a shot at Lewis, but Lewis will have one fight and then might fight Tyson again, so it wouldn't happen for a while. I think his trainers may be waiting to see if Lewis hangs 'em up and then he can take the title that much easier.

-----

I finally saw the Barrera-Morales fight. I had it 115-113 for barrera. And all told, it was an even fight. But you need to score a round honestly and sometimes a guy can win two rounds by a little and the other guy can win 1 round by a lot, but you still have the fight 29-28 for the first guy. A lot of those rounds were real toss-ups too, as you could tell by the difference in the three judges cards. Round 12 was a real beauty. I wish there were more like that. The first fight was like that.

The early rounds were tricky because Morales was definitely the aggressor, but Barrera blocked a lot of shots and made him miss a lot. I always have trouble with those rounds because the defensive guy is probably doing more in terms of the whole fight for himself but the offensive guy is doing most of the punching.

Good fight. I liked the decision, but it could have gone the other way, too.

 

[gardenweasel]

agree with s.j.

agree with s.j.

on kirk johnson...but i know the sharpies wouldn`t dare make this an even fight..... we will have to pay a price for johnson....not so sure about vargas...he has not looked sharp since his loss to trinidad....on the other hand,can`t even remember oscar`s last bout....that kind of inactivity is not a good thing......and s.j.`s comment on oscar being one handed is right on the money....i`m worried that vargas will never be the same fighter after the trinidad loss...some fighters are affected long-term when their first loss is the type of beating vargas took from trinidad....that`s what makes the mosely-forrest rematch so intriguing....how does mosely respond to being dominated.....the guy was being touted as nearly invincible.

 

[TheShrimp]

Some line moves

Some line moves

At WSEX, it's gone from -120/-120 to -110/-130 with the -130 on Mosley. i.e. Mosley's the favorite.

However, at Carib, it's gone from -110/-110 to -130/+110 with Mosley at +110. i.e. Mosley's the dog.

The +125 in 3-way action at SIA on Mosley has fallen to +120. Mosley's the dog again.

I'll also say what I said before. That 40 cent line at WSEX is ridiculous.

Just thought I'd throw this out there.

Still looks overall like its about even, though maybe more money is coming in on Forrest. I still feel good about Mosley's chances but not great. Considering he's lost to him twice now (one in the amateurs) maybe he's got problems. But for years now, I've been a big sugar shane fan. I like how he handles his career. He's got a great training program. He's been holed up at Big Bear for a while now, and he just seems like the kind of guy to me that is a smart enough fighter and a good enough fighter to come back from this and beat Forrest in the rematch.

TheShrimp