Well, you have officially screwed up Jords thread. Now i have to sift through the junk to find his picks.
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- Thread starter Jord20
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Well, you have officially screwed up Jords thread. Now i have to sift through the junk to find his picks.
:0074
From Jord:
What's good for the goose is good for the gander huh!
Although I will say nice win last night.
Double... that makes zero sense. What a false analogy. You are ripping these guys character and intelligence, and stuff you don't know anything about.
It sounds like you are lost in your incessant hate and jealousy for these athletes... unless you have some other point I am missing... back to real basketball talk...
Considering that I never was able to get a great feel and go on any major runs these NBA playoffs - it's pretty fitting that I go into game 7 with this shitty record...
180-179 +2.4 units
Tonight, I have this on as of now..
Heat to win series 79 units to win 50.5
180-179 +2.4 units
Tonight, I have this on as of now..
Heat to win series 79 units to win 50.5
- Sep 14, 2011
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LOL... I haven't decided yet. It's a lot of scrilla. I'm pondering it today
- Sep 14, 2011
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Yeh I have a bunch on spurs at like 8 to 1 to win it all, if I wanted to hedge I should of done it before last game. Now I think I'm stuck letting it ride. IMO I can see this last one going either way, after watching 6 games I don't see either team having a clear edge. I have said it all series and every game more or less comes down to whether Manu or Wade play a better game
Yeah, that is the positive about playing the fave... leaves you nice hedging opps. It's amazing that I have such positive EV going into the last game after the way this series has gone.
You pretty much can't hedge now... 8-1 in a game 7 are some seriously nice odds though
:toast:
Why Can't He Hedge?
Why Can't He Hedge?
shablazin has 8-1 odds that the 6 point underdog wins Game 7... ok. Well, MIA is only -260, if he takes TWICE his future bet on SPURS at 8-1 and puts it on MIAMI, he either doubles his original bet if MIA wins, making some, or makes 2.8 times his original if SPURS win.
The fact he has such high odds on the dog allows him to most certainly hedge, just not a huge huge profit.
:SIB
Why Can't He Hedge?
shablazin has 8-1 odds that the 6 point underdog wins Game 7... ok. Well, MIA is only -260, if he takes TWICE his future bet on SPURS at 8-1 and puts it on MIAMI, he either doubles his original bet if MIA wins, making some, or makes 2.8 times his original if SPURS win.
The fact he has such high odds on the dog allows him to most certainly hedge, just not a huge huge profit.
:SIB
shablazin says he has a HUGE amount riding on SPURS, don't care how big a fan you are, how badly you WANT them to win... there is no way after seeing last nights game that you can comfortably watch tomorrow's tilt without at least hedging to break even. Granted, doing it before last night's game at -130 would have been the best play, but now that it comes down to one game in MIAMI, I'm at least breaking even by hedging some with MIAMI...
Or you can always get risky, hope SPURS have lead at the half, and hedge on MIAMI 2H where you can win with MIAMI even if SPURS win the game.... but that's asking a lot!! :scared
Good luck whatever you decide! :0008
Or you can always get risky, hope SPURS have lead at the half, and hedge on MIAMI 2H where you can win with MIAMI even if SPURS win the game.... but that's asking a lot!! :scared
Good luck whatever you decide! :0008
Don't get me wrong, I understand the math...It's not an awful hedge. But laying 260/270 when you have 8-1 isn't ideal, IMO. I just think getting 8-1, he made a great bet, that has theoretically paid off huge already. If you keep ruining those plays by unfavorably hedging, I think you will more likely be a loser in the long run.
You make good points. The part I bolded above was my main point... you sort of missed your ideal opportunity, and now you should let it ride.
That being said, I obviously think Miami wins, so if it were me, I would hedge. But, i wouldn't have had that play in the first place, so pretty irrelevant.
opcorn2 I do like the in-game idea better. Wait and see how the game starts to play out, and hope for an opportunity there.
Either way, good luck Shab! (especially if you hedge :SIB )
I agree Jord20
I agree Jord20
You may end up losing ADDITIONAL profits in the long run, but a win is a win... when you can lock in a guaranteed profit EVERY TIME, you cannot lose, and that doesn't happen often in world of gambling. That is more my point. Not sure how important that $$ is to him... if it was a shot in the dark thing, well then he should let it ride, but if we're talking a few thousand at 8-1, locking up a GRAND guaranteed profit is the only way I can see to play it.
Your case is easy... take the SPURS +6 and hope for the 1-5 point HEAT win. :toast:
BTW shablazin... I only explained the strategy because some don't get the math. Wasn't meaning to imply you don't, but in case you hadn't or couldn't figure it out, wanted to lay it out for you so you could make an educated decision. That is all.... most of the time, guys try to work together in here. :SIB
I agree Jord20
You may end up losing ADDITIONAL profits in the long run, but a win is a win... when you can lock in a guaranteed profit EVERY TIME, you cannot lose, and that doesn't happen often in world of gambling. That is more my point. Not sure how important that $$ is to him... if it was a shot in the dark thing, well then he should let it ride, but if we're talking a few thousand at 8-1, locking up a GRAND guaranteed profit is the only way I can see to play it.
Your case is easy... take the SPURS +6 and hope for the 1-5 point HEAT win. :toast:
BTW shablazin... I only explained the strategy because some don't get the math. Wasn't meaning to imply you don't, but in case you hadn't or couldn't figure it out, wanted to lay it out for you so you could make an educated decision. That is all.... most of the time, guys try to work together in here. :SIB
I hear you, Rander.
This is a TOUGH, TOUGH game with almost everyone losing in the long run. To win, you need to either take advantage of great streaks or hit big ones like these to keep your edge. Odds are, if you play it completely straight, you will lose. Wins like this can help break that difference, IMO.
But, I totally agree... it depends on his situation, bankroll, etc... and of course, what that money means to him.
My hedge definitely sets up beautiful for that... just not sure exactly how I am going to handle it yet
:toast:
- Sep 14, 2011
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I'll prob let it ride, been around this racket for a long enough time. This was the bet I maxed out on my account right after Jord posted the Westbrook injury and my book didnt adjust the line yet. I think the spurs take care of business but I expect another close one
Of course it makes zero sense to you. The same guy that finds it hilarious to question a mistake made by Lebron points out mistakes made by pop and the spurs missed ft's.
And of course you know exactly how you would act with hundreds of millions and a camera on you all the time so you can question pop and ginobli.
You also claim to know what I do not know :facepalm: for all you know I'm in the locker room with these flea attracting geniuses who have Bosch shooting 3's in crucial situations.
I'll ask one question before i start thinking about real basketball stuff.
If, by your own admission, you were never able to get a great feel for the playoffs, why then are you playing 20+ units a game and 79 units for the series?
Christ, how many units would you play if you did have a feel? Okay that was two questions.
You should just admit that you love these guys and that your posts are based on that love and not real basketball stuff, adding a disclaimer that you will not acknowledge any wrong doing from the Heat and accuse all naysayers of not knowing anything.
Good luck with the series play and/or hedge.
You point out where I said it is hilarious to question a mistake by Lebron and maybe I will answer your question seriously.
Otherwise, I am done arguing with you. I don't care that much. And you obviously don't grasp my point.
Otherwise, I am done arguing with you. I don't care that much. And you obviously don't grasp my point.
