First and Ten
- Thread starter lostinamerica
- Start date
San Francisco(-3)(-120) over Tampa Bay (1*)
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Minnesota/Detroit(Ov51') (1*)
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Tennessee(-3)(-120) over Jacksonville (1*)
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Detroit(-2') over Minnesota (1*)
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Seattle(-3)(-130) over Cleveland (1*)
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Cincinnati(-4') over Cleveland (1*)
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New York Jets(+10) over Buffalo (1*)
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Philadelphia(-7)(-115) over New York Giants (1*)
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GL
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Minnesota/Detroit(Ov51') (1*)
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Tennessee(-3)(-120) over Jacksonville (1*)
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Detroit(-2') over Minnesota (1*)
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Seattle(-3)(-130) over Cleveland (1*)
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Cincinnati(-4') over Cleveland (1*)
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New York Jets(+10) over Buffalo (1*)
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Philadelphia(-7)(-115) over New York Giants (1*)
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GL
Kansas City(-14') over Houston (1*)
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Carolina(-2')(-115) over Pittsburgh (1*)
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Detroit(+2)(-105) over New York Jets (1*)
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Chicago(+8') over Philadelphia (1*)
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GL
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Carolina(-2')(-115) over Pittsburgh (1*)
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Detroit(+2)(-105) over New York Jets (1*)
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Chicago(+8') over Philadelphia (1*)
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GL
Pittsburgh(-2) over Las Vegas (1*)
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Tennessee(-3)(-120) over Houston (1*)
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Dallas(-4) over Philadelphia (1*)
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Kansas City(-10) over Seattle (1*)
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Detroit(-2) over Carolina (1*)
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New York Giants(+4') over Minnesota (1*)
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Buffalo(-8) over Chicago (1*)
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GL
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Tennessee(-3)(-120) over Houston (1*)
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Dallas(-4) over Philadelphia (1*)
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Kansas City(-10) over Seattle (1*)
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Detroit(-2) over Carolina (1*)
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New York Giants(+4') over Minnesota (1*)
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Buffalo(-8) over Chicago (1*)
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GL
NFL YTD: 71-67 (-3.90*)
Philadelphia(-5') over New Orleans (1*)
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Green Bay(-3)(-120) over Minnesota (1 Biscuit)
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Carolina(+3') over Tampa Bay (1*)
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Miami(+3) over New England (1*)
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New York Jets(-2) over Seattle (1*)
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Washington(-1') over Cleveland (1*)
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Houston(+3') over Jacksonville (1*)
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Detroit(-4') over Chicago (1*)
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GL
Philadelphia(-5') over New Orleans (1*)
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Green Bay(-3)(-120) over Minnesota (1 Biscuit)
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Carolina(+3') over Tampa Bay (1*)
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Miami(+3) over New England (1*)
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New York Jets(-2) over Seattle (1*)
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Washington(-1') over Cleveland (1*)
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Houston(+3') over Jacksonville (1*)
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Detroit(-4') over Chicago (1*)
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GL
Buffalo(-8) over New England (1*)
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Cincinnati(-10) over Baltimore (1*)
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Dallas(-7')(-105) over Washington (1*)
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Minnesota(-6') over Chicago (1*)
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Detroit(+5) over Green Bay (1 Biscuit)
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Philadelphia(-16) over New York Giants (1*)
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Pittsburgh(-2')(-115) over Cleveland (1*)
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GL
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Cincinnati(-10) over Baltimore (1*)
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Dallas(-7')(-105) over Washington (1*)
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Minnesota(-6') over Chicago (1*)
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Detroit(+5) over Green Bay (1 Biscuit)
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Philadelphia(-16) over New York Giants (1*)
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Pittsburgh(-2')(-115) over Cleveland (1*)
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GL
2022 NFL Season YTD: 79-74 (-3.60*)
- - I also won my 3 futures bets from start of season:
But that 3-0 (+3.00*) tally would still have me treading water at -0.60* after a long season, which happens to be more or less my usual standing after a long season.
- - I think you hear many respected cappers saying the last weekend of the NFL season is a terrible, horrible, no good, very bad week for making wagers, even more often than they say much the same thing about the first weekend of the season. But I have never really found the last week or the first week to be that way at all, and I went back to check my recent records for the last weekend, and found the following: 2021 season = 7-6; 2020 season = 6-6; 2019 season = 5-4-1; 2018 season = 10-2. Now, 2022 season = 5-2. 33-20 (62%) over 5 seasons. I doubt my record for any other week is that solid. Maybe next year will be different, but I doubt you will ever catch me saying that the last weekend or the first weekend of the NFL season is a week for running scared for making wagers if you find INFORMATION or ANGLES you like to support your plays.
GL
- - I also won my 3 futures bets from start of season:
But that 3-0 (+3.00*) tally would still have me treading water at -0.60* after a long season, which happens to be more or less my usual standing after a long season.
- - I think you hear many respected cappers saying the last weekend of the NFL season is a terrible, horrible, no good, very bad week for making wagers, even more often than they say much the same thing about the first weekend of the season. But I have never really found the last week or the first week to be that way at all, and I went back to check my recent records for the last weekend, and found the following: 2021 season = 7-6; 2020 season = 6-6; 2019 season = 5-4-1; 2018 season = 10-2. Now, 2022 season = 5-2. 33-20 (62%) over 5 seasons. I doubt my record for any other week is that solid. Maybe next year will be different, but I doubt you will ever catch me saying that the last weekend or the first weekend of the NFL season is a week for running scared for making wagers if you find INFORMATION or ANGLES you like to support your plays.
GL
14 Teams - 1 Trophy
(1) The slate of games for Super Wild Card Weekend doesn’t seem all that special for some reason, and I think all six games featuring matchups of teams that already played earlier in the season adds to rather than detracts from that lukewarm feeling. But the games can definitely surprise.
(2) I usually have very strong opinions on playoff matchups, but if I give a confidence ranking on my plays this weekend, I can’t say anything stands out as some sort of a best play. I would not be surprised if the lines are sharp and the games just don’t break my way.
2022-2023 NFL Postseason YTD: 0-0 (+0.00*)
Cincinnati(-8') over Baltimore (1*)
- - Cinci overachieved last year, and I thought this year as the losers of the Super Bowl their season would definitely produce something less. But by December, Cinci had risen in my eyes and I have been claiming them as my first choice to get the job done among a field in which no team stands out IMO among the top 4 or 6 or 8 contenders. Now they are playing with a collective chip on their shoulders, and I like their chances even a bit more . . . What I never like at any level of football is a team facing off against an opponent that they beat just the week before. Be that as it may, I expect Cinci will carry my cash until whatever ride they take is over.
GL
(1) The slate of games for Super Wild Card Weekend doesn’t seem all that special for some reason, and I think all six games featuring matchups of teams that already played earlier in the season adds to rather than detracts from that lukewarm feeling. But the games can definitely surprise.
(2) I usually have very strong opinions on playoff matchups, but if I give a confidence ranking on my plays this weekend, I can’t say anything stands out as some sort of a best play. I would not be surprised if the lines are sharp and the games just don’t break my way.
2022-2023 NFL Postseason YTD: 0-0 (+0.00*)
Cincinnati(-8') over Baltimore (1*)
- - Cinci overachieved last year, and I thought this year as the losers of the Super Bowl their season would definitely produce something less. But by December, Cinci had risen in my eyes and I have been claiming them as my first choice to get the job done among a field in which no team stands out IMO among the top 4 or 6 or 8 contenders. Now they are playing with a collective chip on their shoulders, and I like their chances even a bit more . . . What I never like at any level of football is a team facing off against an opponent that they beat just the week before. Be that as it may, I expect Cinci will carry my cash until whatever ride they take is over.
GL
Los Angeles Chargers(-1') over Jacksonville (1*)
- - As I read elsewhere, in a league filled with terrible coaching, Brandon Staley really stands out. His decision to play starters last week for an extended period of time and losing game changing WR Mike Williams in the process could help write his epitaph, and mine. Be that as it may, the narrative of QB Justin Herbert leading the Chargers through a tough division and more adversity this season and finally busting down the door into the tournament has me expecting something of a top shelf performance from the most overlooked dangerous team in the tournament.
Seattle(+9') over San Francisco (1*)
- - I’m surprised that this is the game on which I have settled on a play that is contrary to my first take from when the matchups were known. Even though the weather elements would seem to fit a team built like the 49ers, it can be an equalizer if the game unfolds with 6 or 8 plays making the difference and Brock Purdy at the helm, and SF looked like the worst team in the league on opening day when the hungry Bears embraced the deluge. Regardless, I think their division rival from Seattle is not quite ready to “crown their ass”, and is the one team that might honestly respond by saying that San Fran is exactly the team they would most be looking forward to playing.
GL
- - As I read elsewhere, in a league filled with terrible coaching, Brandon Staley really stands out. His decision to play starters last week for an extended period of time and losing game changing WR Mike Williams in the process could help write his epitaph, and mine. Be that as it may, the narrative of QB Justin Herbert leading the Chargers through a tough division and more adversity this season and finally busting down the door into the tournament has me expecting something of a top shelf performance from the most overlooked dangerous team in the tournament.
Seattle(+9') over San Francisco (1*)
- - I’m surprised that this is the game on which I have settled on a play that is contrary to my first take from when the matchups were known. Even though the weather elements would seem to fit a team built like the 49ers, it can be an equalizer if the game unfolds with 6 or 8 plays making the difference and Brock Purdy at the helm, and SF looked like the worst team in the league on opening day when the hungry Bears embraced the deluge. Regardless, I think their division rival from Seattle is not quite ready to “crown their ass”, and is the one team that might honestly respond by saying that San Fran is exactly the team they would most be looking forward to playing.
GL
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Yesterday turned painful, that for should. Made worse by the fact I was busy dealing with my dinner before and during halftime of the late game, or I almost certainly would have covered my bases with a Jacksonville(-3)(2h) play.
Buffalo(-14) over Miami (1*)
- - With Buffalo, I don't like how they have measured up much smaller than expected this season with repeated issues involving ball security, shockingly excessive reliance on a one man offense, and a f-f-fading defense. I would not rate Buffalo in the Top 4 teams starting the tournament, but in this spot they are likely as strong as they will be all season, so they carry my cash today over the alternative.
New York Giants(+3)(-115) over Minnesota (1*)
- - I expect the Giants to show they very much belong as one of the 7 best teams in the NFC, but I am worried that Minnesota is both a tad bit better and has a high puke factor.
GL
Buffalo(-14) over Miami (1*)
- - With Buffalo, I don't like how they have measured up much smaller than expected this season with repeated issues involving ball security, shockingly excessive reliance on a one man offense, and a f-f-fading defense. I would not rate Buffalo in the Top 4 teams starting the tournament, but in this spot they are likely as strong as they will be all season, so they carry my cash today over the alternative.
New York Giants(+3)(-115) over Minnesota (1*)
- - I expect the Giants to show they very much belong as one of the 7 best teams in the NFC, but I am worried that Minnesota is both a tad bit better and has a high puke factor.
GL
