First and Ten
- Thread starter lostinamerica
- Start date
Los Angeles Rams(-3)(-105) over New York Jets (1*)
- -
San Francisco(-2) over Miami (1*)
- - I really liked the card for the CFP and managed to go 3-1. Not really liking much on the NFL card this week, except Baltimore(-7) when I was too focused on CFP to much bother, and the Monday night game, but I have a thing about not posting any plays before the day of the game, unless I will be traveling, or some other contingency. Understandably, I really liked this game much better when it was 49ers(+1') as a selection in my mock Hilton contest.
Carolina(+5')(-105) over Arizona (1*)
- - I was definitely not tempted to get sucked in last week when Carolina was favored over Dallas, but I’m a sucker for Carolina today.
Seattle(+3)(-125) over Minnesota (1*)
- -
GL
- -
San Francisco(-2) over Miami (1*)
- - I really liked the card for the CFP and managed to go 3-1. Not really liking much on the NFL card this week, except Baltimore(-7) when I was too focused on CFP to much bother, and the Monday night game, but I have a thing about not posting any plays before the day of the game, unless I will be traveling, or some other contingency. Understandably, I really liked this game much better when it was 49ers(+1') as a selection in my mock Hilton contest.
Carolina(+5')(-105) over Arizona (1*)
- - I was definitely not tempted to get sucked in last week when Carolina was favored over Dallas, but I’m a sucker for Carolina today.
Seattle(+3)(-125) over Minnesota (1*)
- -
GL
Green Bay(-14) over New Orleans (1*)
- - Keep Christmas Well!
GL
- - Keep Christmas Well!
GL
Kansas City(-2) over Pittsburgh (1*)
- - KC has everything to play for, and I just don’t see Pittsburgh winning the game in the midst of an historically short stretch in the midst of an historically rugged stretch, so I will lay the points. I will try for a Christmas killing if this play hits.
GL
- - KC has everything to play for, and I just don’t see Pittsburgh winning the game in the midst of an historically short stretch in the midst of an historically rugged stretch, so I will lay the points. I will try for a Christmas killing if this play hits.
GL
Houston(+6') over Baltimore (1*)
- - Baltimore just won their biggest game of the year, and takes to the road to play a Houston team coming off a frustrating defeat at the home of the defending Super Bowl champs, in a rematch of last year’s playoff game. Seems to me like a big number to cover compared to the wager I made on the early game.
GL
- - Baltimore just won their biggest game of the year, and takes to the road to play a Houston team coming off a frustrating defeat at the home of the defending Super Bowl champs, in a rematch of last year’s playoff game. Seems to me like a big number to cover compared to the wager I made on the early game.
GL
Los Angeles Chargers(-6) over New England (1*)
- - The Chargers have experienced a whole lot of playoff misery in recent years. With a chance at some vindication right in front of a starving team, I’ll wager that HC Jim Harbaugh has the pulse of his troops and the right formula to kick the door down against an inferior opponent.
GL
- - The Chargers have experienced a whole lot of playoff misery in recent years. With a chance at some vindication right in front of a starving team, I’ll wager that HC Jim Harbaugh has the pulse of his troops and the right formula to kick the door down against an inferior opponent.
GL
Green Bay(+1) over Minnesota (1*)
- - The Vikings are not a 15-2 team. The Packers need to make that a fact.
Tampa Bay(-10) over Carolina (1*)
- - Whoa, Nellie! Liked this play a lot better at -7' in my Mock Hilton contest. I liked Carolina a lot last week despite the oh so awesome rushing attack of Arizona, and I liked Dallas to give Tampa a game last week, and the Sunday night game was a beauty. This week I really like a desperate Tampa team to play on a par with their effort last week, and get the win here, but by how much?
Washington(-3)(-125) over Atlanta (1*)
- - I’m not riding with Hotlanta and Michael Penix in this road test with huge playoff implications, even if most everyone else is.
New Orleans(+1') over Las Vegas (1*)
- - What a stupid game to bet on, either way, but I just sort of like it.
Detroit(-3)(-130) over San Francisco (1*)
- - Dan Campbell things.
GL
- - The Vikings are not a 15-2 team. The Packers need to make that a fact.
Tampa Bay(-10) over Carolina (1*)
- - Whoa, Nellie! Liked this play a lot better at -7' in my Mock Hilton contest. I liked Carolina a lot last week despite the oh so awesome rushing attack of Arizona, and I liked Dallas to give Tampa a game last week, and the Sunday night game was a beauty. This week I really like a desperate Tampa team to play on a par with their effort last week, and get the win here, but by how much?
Washington(-3)(-125) over Atlanta (1*)
- - I’m not riding with Hotlanta and Michael Penix in this road test with huge playoff implications, even if most everyone else is.
New Orleans(+1') over Las Vegas (1*)
- - What a stupid game to bet on, either way, but I just sort of like it.
Detroit(-3)(-130) over San Francisco (1*)
- - Dan Campbell things.
GL
2024 NFL YTD: 55-56 (-7.45*)
- - Fav: 44-35
- - Dog: 9-20
- - Totals: 2-1
- - In-game: 0-0
- - NFC North: 17-13
My Post from January 7, 2024:
- - I think you hear many respected cappers saying the last weekend of the NFL season is a terrible, horrible, no good, very bad week for making wagers, even more often than they say much the same thing about the first weekend of the season. But I have never really found the last week or the first week to be that way at all, and I went back to check my recent records for the last weekend, and found the following: 2022 season = 5-2; 2021 season = 7-6; 2020 season = 6-6; 2019 season = 5-4-1; 2018 season = 10-2. 33-20 (62%) over 5 seasons. I doubt my record for any other week is that solid. Maybe this year will be different, but I doubt you will ever catch me saying that the last weekend or the first weekend of the NFL season is a week for running scared for making wagers if you find INFORMATION or ANGLES you like to support your plays.
- - Results on 1/7/24: 6-3. Now 39-23 over 6 seasons (63%).
Far fewer plays than normal that I like, after none yesterday:
Tampa Bay(-14') over New Orleans (1*)
- -
Green Bay(-9') over Chicago (1*)
- -
Detroit(-3)(+100) over Minnesota (1*)
- -
Denver(-11) over Kansas City (1*)
- -
Seattle(-7)(-120) over Los Angeles Rams (1*)
- -
GL
- - Fav: 44-35
- - Dog: 9-20
- - Totals: 2-1
- - In-game: 0-0
- - NFC North: 17-13
My Post from January 7, 2024:
- - I think you hear many respected cappers saying the last weekend of the NFL season is a terrible, horrible, no good, very bad week for making wagers, even more often than they say much the same thing about the first weekend of the season. But I have never really found the last week or the first week to be that way at all, and I went back to check my recent records for the last weekend, and found the following: 2022 season = 5-2; 2021 season = 7-6; 2020 season = 6-6; 2019 season = 5-4-1; 2018 season = 10-2. 33-20 (62%) over 5 seasons. I doubt my record for any other week is that solid. Maybe this year will be different, but I doubt you will ever catch me saying that the last weekend or the first weekend of the NFL season is a week for running scared for making wagers if you find INFORMATION or ANGLES you like to support your plays.
- - Results on 1/7/24: 6-3. Now 39-23 over 6 seasons (63%).
Far fewer plays than normal that I like, after none yesterday:
Tampa Bay(-14') over New Orleans (1*)
- -
Green Bay(-9') over Chicago (1*)
- -
Detroit(-3)(+100) over Minnesota (1*)
- -
Denver(-11) over Kansas City (1*)
- -
Seattle(-7)(-120) over Los Angeles Rams (1*)
- -
GL
2024 NFL YTD: 57-59 (-8.85*)
- - Fav: 45-38
- - Dog: 10-20
- - Totals: 2-1
- - In-game: 0-0
- - NFC North: 18-14
2-1-1(+0.70*) with my futures plays. Except for crushing a New England under last year, my prop plays definitely trend toward instances of creating success rather than failing miserably.
Iowa(Ov8) Wins (-140) (1*)
Green Bay(Ov9') Wins (-145) (1*)
Denver(Ov5') Wins (-150) (1*)
Carolina(Ov5') Wins (-130) (1*)
GL
- - Fav: 45-38
- - Dog: 10-20
- - Totals: 2-1
- - In-game: 0-0
- - NFC North: 18-14
2-1-1(+0.70*) with my futures plays. Except for crushing a New England under last year, my prop plays definitely trend toward instances of creating success rather than failing miserably.
Iowa(Ov8) Wins (-140) (1*)
Green Bay(Ov9') Wins (-145) (1*)
Denver(Ov5') Wins (-150) (1*)
Carolina(Ov5') Wins (-130) (1*)
GL
14 Teams - 1 Trophy
Los Angeles Chargers(-3)(+100) over Houston (1*)
- - It’s the playoffs, and my search for value takes me to narratives and matchups, coaches and quarterbacks, certainly not what number gets hung on a game. Third straight road game for the Chargers, fires in L.A., nothing to be ignored. For me, L.A. has impressed as a buttoned up squad in the image of their proven coach from the get go, and that’s pretty damn much the same narrative that has me believing Harbaugh can push and lift his hungry team to write another chapter that caps a very successful season.
GL
Los Angeles Chargers(-3)(+100) over Houston (1*)
- - It’s the playoffs, and my search for value takes me to narratives and matchups, coaches and quarterbacks, certainly not what number gets hung on a game. Third straight road game for the Chargers, fires in L.A., nothing to be ignored. For me, L.A. has impressed as a buttoned up squad in the image of their proven coach from the get go, and that’s pretty damn much the same narrative that has me believing Harbaugh can push and lift his hungry team to write another chapter that caps a very successful season.
GL
Pittsburgh(+9) over Baltimore (1*)
- - The easy narrative is Pittsburgh is trash, Russell is really trash, Baltimore is great, and Lamar is the greatest. I lean to the narrative that Pittsburgh has drawn the right opponent to shrink whatever gap exists between these teams.
GL
- - The easy narrative is Pittsburgh is trash, Russell is really trash, Baltimore is great, and Lamar is the greatest. I lean to the narrative that Pittsburgh has drawn the right opponent to shrink whatever gap exists between these teams.
GL
Tampa Bay(-3)(+100) over Washington (1*)
- - Thankfully there have not been a lot of times when I have been so far off on a playoff pick as I was with the crumbling Chargers. Those plays bother me twice or thrice as much as almost any "bad beat" that is really just a tough beat . . . My two strongest plays for the weekend were Chargers and Buccs. Yikes.
Buffalo(-7') over Denver (1*)
- - This Bills team is not crumbling today. The lifting gets a lot heavier after that.
Green Bay(+5') over Philadelphia (1*)
- - "What are they gonna say now?"
GL
- - Thankfully there have not been a lot of times when I have been so far off on a playoff pick as I was with the crumbling Chargers. Those plays bother me twice or thrice as much as almost any "bad beat" that is really just a tough beat . . . My two strongest plays for the weekend were Chargers and Buccs. Yikes.
Buffalo(-7') over Denver (1*)
- - This Bills team is not crumbling today. The lifting gets a lot heavier after that.
Green Bay(+5') over Philadelphia (1*)
- - "What are they gonna say now?"
GL
Minnesota(-2) over Los Angeles Rams (1*)(
- - https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id...ires-rams-playoff-hopes-nfc-wild-card-arizona
GL
- - https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id...ires-rams-playoff-hopes-nfc-wild-card-arizona
GL
