First rule of bitcoin
- Thread starter MadJack
- Start date
Never been in the Crypto thread and my oh my is it a testy one...my 2c...I trade quite a bit and used to be in the investment biz. My opinion is that it will pan out much like the internet era where 95-98% die at the vine with a small handful of winners. BlackRock, with 7T in AUM, have some fairly bright ppl and see the opportunity with BTC and its utility. Cathy Wood and Fidelity and a few others have applied ofr ETF approval. BTC and ETH are the only ones with applications for ETF approval. They will be approved but that may be it. I trade price both long and short and really could care less if any survive. Their are lots of charlatans in this space and they are being exposed one by one. The fine of 4.3B to Binance is a positive for the industry...That is a fine they will have no issue paying as they are 10x the size of Coinbase...sorry for the interruption...carry on!Once again, you are way off, you have posted three things in this thread (along with other threads) that are absolute lies, but I won't even call you out on it because you are blinded by your Crypto cult bullshit. 🤦
1. My opinion is an opinion, and I have backed up that opinion as to why I think Crypto is a complete scam in various threads. One could say your ignorance is so blinding that you can't see what is right in front of you, but hey the Kool Aid fogs the mind, so I get it. I mean you are in so deep that you actually think Crypto will take over, and that is the ignorance at the highest of levels.
2. Since the beginning of Crypto I never once commented on the "price" of any Crypto "currency", so not sure why you constantly bring up Bitcoin "prices". How could I be wrong about something I never commented on. You know you are grasping at straws when you try to convince yourself about somebody being wrong by just making up lies about them.
You seem to be the one that thinks your opinion is the only one that matters.
You are upset, but I get it, I have been there. Everything will be ok, it takes time, but eventually everything will be just fine
Isn't FDIG the Fidelity Crypto ETF? It's advertised all over the Fidelity website.
And this is why BTC and ETH will never go away.
When the huge hedge funds and mutual fund companies have as much skin in the game with crypto as they do now, you can be sure they aren’t going to allow it to fail as an investment vehicle.
The way I understand it and I am not an expert, the ETF they have now is more of a futures ETF for BTC and ETH. They do not have to own BTC or ETH to offer that ETF.
The ETF that they have applied for, along with quite a few major institutions, is a SPOT BTC ETF that they will have to own in order to back up the investments. If they get approval, along with the other major institutions, they will have to buy up bitcoin in order to back their ETF's. That means there will be major buying of the bitcoin which should drive the price up substantially.
There are only and will only be 21 million bitcoins. There will never be more than 21 million bitcoins. The more scarce, the more valuable it will become.
Bitcoin and other crypto currencies haven't been around long, somewhere around 10 years, and they have cycles. We are currently in the 4th 4 year cycle. We have been going through the bear market for the last 2 years and now, according to the last 3 4 year cycles, we have entered the bull market. The last 3 bull markets have seen bitcoin shoot up higher each time. I am banking on that happening again. Why won't it? Only this time we have more regulation, more institutional interest, and a lot more public investors. We also have seen the bad seeds of the space get eliminated.
The bitcoin halving is coming up in May/June 2024 so according to history we should see much higher prices the following year after halving.
Bitcoin market cap is currently closing in on $800 billion. $11 billion in bitcoin was traded in the last 24 hours alone. Those figures could double, triple, quadruple, all within the next 6 months, especially with ETF approvals.
I own my bitcoin. I am in full control of my bitcoin. I can spend my bitcoin anyway I want to spend it. Nobody else can touch it or invest it but myself. I like that freedom and security that banks don't provide for me.
It is a very risky investment. Some people have a high tolerance to risk, I am one of those with a high tolerance and always have been that way my whole life. Being that way can be highly rewarding or it can kick you in the balls. I'm willing to take that risk.
I don't NEED any of the money I have invested in bitcoin so if I lose it all, it won't change my life or standard of life. I'm willing to take the risk for the potential of ridiculous high rewards.
Like I said above, I am certainly not an expert so correct me where you see I am wrong about the way I see it. Maybe I'm just an idiot. Convince me.
Where can I get some of these Crypto coins? I'm going to bury a few under the shed for the rainy day. 🌧
See, this is what I don't understand. Your bitcoin is not a tangible thing. It's not in your possession. If some hackers get in and steal a bunch of bitcoin, including yours, and you log into your account tomorrow and it shows you have nothing... you have absolutely ZERO recourse, correct? Whereas if your money is in a bank, and hackers empty your account, you have a decent chance of getting your money back. If nothing else, all or most of it is protected by the FDIC.
I don't see how something completely unregulated can be considered more secure than money in a bank.
That said, obviously if you're looking for better returns, your money won't be sitting in any bank account. At least until you're older and need to start moving into more conservative investments.
As kick has said... a few times... nobody here is going to change anyone's mind. To me, cryptocurrency is the same as nft's. Sure, if someone wants to speculate on the price going up, they'll pay a premium for it. But if tomorrow everybody realized crypto is, in fact, worthless, then suddenly it really is worthless. Whereas if the stock market crashes and prices are plummeting... well, as some point people will realize that they can now own shares of fantastic income-generating businesses for pennies on the dollar and they will resume buying stocks.
My bitcoin is in my possession. I don't leave it on an exchange, I store it on a hard wallet. It's not online at all. I don't want to post here how it works but you can look it up and find out. Not trying to be a dick, I'm sure you understand.
I'm sure somebody smarter than me that's reading this thread can answer your other questions but I'll give it a shot later.
I'll answer a couple of easy ones now.
This explains it better than I can with my own words.
Online wallets are more prone to hackers / viruses (think of it as storing all your money in a bank and leaving it there for them to manage).
What happens if the bank goes bankrupt? You are entrusting them and their security measures to safeguard your money for you.
Online wallets are also connected to the internet 24/7 as data is stored on the exchanges / wallet online or private servers. Being always connected makes it a vulnerable target.
Hardware wallets are an offline device with buttons on the physical device having both a physical and private key. However for every transaction (deposit or withdrawal) you must manually approve it by pressing the button on the physical device. (This in turns gives you more freedom and control over your transactions).
Also the hardware wallet is only ‘connected’ to the internet when you plug it into a device with internet connection which makes it less prone to attackers compared to online wallets.
I feel that my bitcoin is much safer than the money I have in banks.
This explains it better than I can with my own words.
Online wallets are more prone to hackers / viruses (think of it as storing all your money in a bank and leaving it there for them to manage).
What happens if the bank goes bankrupt? You are entrusting them and their security measures to safeguard your money for you.
Online wallets are also connected to the internet 24/7 as data is stored on the exchanges / wallet online or private servers. Being always connected makes it a vulnerable target.
Hardware wallets are an offline device with buttons on the physical device having both a physical and private key. However for every transaction (deposit or withdrawal) you must manually approve it by pressing the button on the physical device. (This in turns gives you more freedom and control over your transactions).
Also the hardware wallet is only ‘connected’ to the internet when you plug it into a device with internet connection which makes it less prone to attackers compared to online wallets.
I AM old (68). I already have my conservative investments in place.
Bitcoin has become an investment for me, short term (the next couple years) and long term (who knows how long).
Short term I think bitcoin at least doubles in the next 18 months. Some are thinking A LOT more than double. It's all based on the 4 year cycle that I mentioned in a post above. We are entering the bull cycle that should last about a year after the bitcoin halving come May/June 2024. We could see a quadruple or even more now that the big institutions are getting involved. Bitcoin didn't have that going for it in the previous cycles.
Every 4 years it takes a hard dip too. Hell, in 2021 the high was about $68K then dipped to around $15k October/November 2022, now look where it is. I've been stacking all along. I think the previous cycle the high was in the $20K's then dipped to under $10K. The previous cycle to the last was a lower high and lower low. I'm hoping for at least a double from here but sort of expecting it to reach $150K in the next 18 months.
I'm not going to be around for the long term. That's going to be left for the kids and grandkids. I sure hope they don't sell because I really think digital currency is the future. Fiat it total bullshit. How much more are they going to print? What's that paper going to be worth in 20 years if it's still in existence?
That's how I'm thinking.
Jack your up quite a bit on this , I barely followed, but you got in early correct?
It's early now.
I started using bitcoin back in 2016 to use moving funds in and out of sports books. I didn't start treating it as an investment until a couple years ago. I don't sell any but I have been adding, most recently on November 8.
$38k right before the monthly close. All the ETF sponsors trying to secure their bitcoin before the ETFs are approved so that they can sell it. All trying to do it without making the price go parabolic......wonder what happens next?
Maybe when people can buy a share of an ETF, they'll think it's tangible
Maybe when people can buy a share of an ETF, they'll think it's tangible
LFG!$38k right before the monthly close. All the ETF sponsors trying to secure their bitcoin before the ETFs are approved so that they can sell it. All trying to do it without making the price go parabolic......wonder what happens next?
Maybe when people can buy a share of an ETF, they'll think it's tangible
thank you for the responses. that did clear up a couple things. but this right here is the part that doesn't make any sense to me. for something to be a bargain, it has to have an actual value in the first place. how can you value bitcoin? what is it actually worth? in fact, what is it? is the value because it's a currency? i know some retailers accept it, but not many. which doesn't make it very useful as a currency.
when it comes to stocks, it's possible to figure out if something is an actual bargain. my favorite example... about 15 years ago, i learned about ISRG. incredible company that was starting to dominate the robotic surgery market. they had a great product that was being adopted by hospitals around the world. and once a hospital commits to their system, it's very difficult/expensive to change to something else. plus, they used the "gillette model." while they made a profit on the machines, their real profits come from all the accessories that need to be replaced constantly. it's a fantastic business model. so you could take their cash flows, expenses, etc, and figure out a rough idea of what a share of ISRG was actually worth. and, at the time, it was a true bargain at $125/share. i doubled my normal first investment in a company (not a ton of money, unfortunately) In hindsight, i really wish i had put everything i had into it, because that investment is up over 2,000%. anyway, the point is with stocks you have a tangible, income-producing asset that can be valued. and that has actual value. how do you do a valuation of crypto? if somebody is willing to give you $30K today for one bitcoin, that is a price, not a value. for it to be a bargain, that implies there is a value.
i know one of the big selling points is that it's a finite resource. but that right there means it can never be useful as a currency. think about it... as much as everybody hates inflation, it's necessary. people tend to want raises at their jobs (the nerve!). well, how can employers make more money to pay more to their workers? they need to raise prices. so everything goes up, and the government puts more currency in circulation. how would that work if we had no fiat currency and we all relied on crypto?
near as i can tell, the crypto market is purely speculative. "the price today is $30K, but i'll pay that because i think it's going to double in the near future." generally speaking, very few people (who aren't insiders) end up making money in speculative markets. that's the same as day trading stocks. back when i bought ISRG, i had no idea what it would do the next day. the next month. even the next year. but i was extremely confident that over the next 10 - 20 years, it was going to be worth a hell of a lot more than it was then.
i guess the last point i'll make... i'm pretty sure most people who own crypto understand it about as well as i do. in other words, not much. they just bought it because they hope the price keeps going up, and they don't want to miss out (that's likely the biggest factor). whereas i understood how ISRG makes money. i made a LOT of sense to me.
personally, i think you should cash out your bitcoin right now and put it all on SF this week against philly. easy way to double your money, as long as purdy doesn't get hurt. what are the odds of that happening 2 years in a row??
That's not a tangible unless you receive a piece of those cash flows and you don't. You have a number on a screen that goes up based on expected cash flows years in advance that may or may not happen to the Company and will never happen for the shareholder.
I can see how people can say that Bitcoin isn't a tangible asset but I don't understand how they then can say that their stock holdings on their app are tangible or that their $20 bill made of paper and ink is. Or that a 2,000% gain with a 73 P/E ratio isn't a speculative asset. Look at this chart
Looks exactly like BTC. . . . and as unrequested free advice, if ISRG starts going down on the daily before it reaches $341, it'll be headed towards $200 with haste and it won't matter the cash flows that the Company's generating.
