KELSO no ratings posted
Texas San Antonio
Clemson
Pitt/Virginia Tech ? Under
Florida
Colorado
Parlay ? Florida & Colorado
Marc lawrence 5 pack
arkansas
ariz st
purdue
oregon
alabama
That's it for today! GLE!!
:0008
Phil Steele, ESPN Staff Writer
33
Shares
Email
Print
Comment
Each week during the 2015 college football season, I will offer up my selections and scores for the weekend's biggest games and a handful of other key matchups.
This year has started off on a solid note. In the first four weeks, my selections have now gone 34-6 (85 percent) picking the straight-up (SU) winners and 23-17 (58 percent) against the spread (ATS).
So far this year, there have been 10 meetings between ranked teams. The higher-rated team is 8-2 SU, but the underdog is 6-4 ATS in those matchups. This week is the biggest week to date, with five matchups between ranked teams.
Note: Lines from Westgate SuperBook as of Thursday morning.
No. 6 Notre Dame Fighting Irish at No. 12 Clemson Tigers (PK)
8 p.m. ET, ABC
College GameDay will be on hand for this one, and Clemson has one of the best entrances in college football. The Tigers have the QB advantage with Deshaun Watson and the home-field edge as well. Toss in the fact that Notre Dame is just 2-10 in true road games versus ranked teams, and Clemson looks like the easy play.
However, I am going to call for Notre Dame to grab the win on the road. Brian Kelly feels this is his best team yet, and last year, the Fighting Irish would have knocked off the defending champs (Florida State) on the road had they not been called for pass interference late. He also had a team play in the national title game. This is a tough one to call, but I am very high on the Irish this year, and I believe they will stay unbeaten.
ATS pick: Notre Dame
Score: Notre Dame 27, Clemson 23
Air Force Falcons at Navy Midshipmen (-5.5)
3:30 p.m. ET, SEC Network
Yes, I know that neither of these two teams are ranked, but they are both service academies that we can be proud of and they are a combined 5-1 this year, with the only loss to No. 2 Michigan State. Not only has Air Force taken on the tougher schedule this year, the Falcons are stronger statistically. Air Force has outgained its foes by 195 yards per game and Navy by 61 yards per game.
The underdog in this series is an outstanding 10-1-1 ATS, and there have been eight outright upsets the last 12 years! Keep in mind these games are usually lower scoring than expected as both teams practice versus the option every day. The clincher is that Navy has never played in a conference before but now finds itself in first place in its division, with Notre Dame on deck. Air Force is used to playing both conference and service academy games and is fresh off a bye. I think the Falcons take this one.
ATS pick: Air Force
Score: Air Force 24, Navy 23
No. 23 West Virginia Mountaineers at No. 15 Oklahoma Sooners (-6.5)
Noon ET, Fox Sports 1
I expected West Virginia to have its best defense yet under Dana Holgorsen, and that has been the case. QB Skyler Howard threw the first interception of his career last week, which speaks volumes about how he takes care of the ball. West Virginia also comes in with more impressive statistics.
However, I like the Sooners here. They have faced the 23rd-toughest schedule by my numbers, while West Virginia has taken on my No. 110-ranked slate. Oklahoma comes in fresh off a bye and while not by large margins, I do give the Sooners the edge on offense, defense and special teams -- not to mention home field. Finally, last year Oklahoma went into Morgantown and while they struggled early, they still led 45-27 before giving up a late touchdown; in Norman, this should be another comfortable win.
ATS pick: Oklahoma
Score: Oklahoma 34, West Virginia 23
Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. No. 5 Baylor Bears (-17)
3:30 p.m. ET, ABC in Arlington, Texas (neutral site)
Texas Tech was only a 5-point underdog at home versus No. 4 TCU last week and lost when TCU got a tipped-pass touchdown on fourth down. It may seem strange that the very next week the Red Raiders are at a neutral site and now are 17-point 'dogs versus the No. 5 team in the country.
Baylor has the best offense in the nation, averaging 767 yards per game and 64 points per game, but TCU has a good offense as well. The difference is TCU had a defense that was missing eight of my projected starters from my magazine in last week's game. Baylor comes in with a defense that is allowing just 318 yards per game and the Bears are holding their opponents to 195 yards below their season averages. Texas Tech's defense allows 565 yards per game and allows opponents 45 yards more than their season averages.
ATS pick: Baylor
Score: Baylor 55, Texas Tech 34
No. 11 Florida State Seminoles (-19) at Wake Forest Demon Deacons
3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN
Wake Forest is an improved team this year but is still young and has three freshmen starters on the offensive line. That unit has already allowed 15 sacks, including six to Indiana last week. Last year, Florida State's defense played lethargically all season, allowing 397 yards per game and only holding a foe to under 313 yards three times. Their best performance came versus Wake, when they gave up just 126 total yards in a 43-3 home win.
Florida State had a bye last week and despite being 3-0 isn't even in the top 10. Last year the Seminoles allowed their opponents six yards more per game than their opponents averaged. This year they are holding foes to 198 yards below their season average and are playing with a lot more fire. Wake trailed Indiana last week 31-10 in the fourth quarter before a couple of late scores. Florida State has won the last three meetings between these two by a total score of 154-6! After scoring just one offensive TD at Boston College, their offense has a week off to work out the kinks. Florida State rolls to an easy road win here.
ATS pick: Florida State
Score: Florida State 38, Wake Forest 3
Hawaii Rainbow Warriors at No. 29 Boise State Broncos (-24.5)
10:15 p.m. ET, ESPN
Last week I had Wisconsin in its 28-0 shutout win over Hawaii, and the game was even worse than the final for the Rainbow Warriors as they only had 11 first downs to Wisconsin's 31. They flew back home and now pack up and fly to play Boise in altitude (were in Columbus two weeks prior to Wisconsin). This game is at night, so while the high is 72 degrees, it should drop into the mid 50's by halftime.
As I expected, Boise State went with true frosh QB Brett Rypien and he has been an upgrade, completing 73 percent with a 3-0 TD-to-INT ratio. Hawaii has taken on two of my top-10 rated defenses this year and been shutout by both Ohio State (No. 3) and Wisconsin (No. 8); here the Rainbow Warriors face my No. 6-rated defense. Hawaii's offense is averaging 125 yards less than their opponents are allowing on average and now are a travel-weary team playing on the blue turf. This smells like a blowout.
ATS pick: Boise State
Score: Boise State 38, Hawaii 3
Arizona State Sun Devils at No. 7 UCLA Bruins (-13.5)
7:30 p.m. ET, Fox
I won going with UCLA last week over Arizona and with USC against Arizona State. Last week's results did cost us some line value here as UCLA was just a 5-point favorite in the summer and now has lost DE Eddie Vanderdoes, LB Myles Jack and CB Fabian Moreau, who are all out for the year.
I do think UCLA is a complete team and QB Josh Rosen bounced back from two poor performances and hit 19-of-28 passes for 284 yards last week. Arizona State has played below my expectations all three weeks; the Sun Devils lost to Texas A&M by 21, then struggled versus both Cal Poly and New Mexico. They trailed USC 35-0 at the half last week. My computer is calling for a three-touchdown margin for the Bruins and I agree.
ATS pick: UCLA
Score: UCLA 34, Arizona State 13
No. 21 Mississippi State Bulldogs at No. 14 Texas A&M Aggies (-7)
7:30 p.m. ET, SEC Network
I freely admit that I was one of the many, including the SEC media, to peg Mississippi State for seventh place in the SEC West. The Bulldogs have impressed me so far this season. While the LSU game looked like it would be a blowout loss, they rallied back and missed a FG at the end to lose by just two. They then rolled over Auburn on the road last week 17-9 and now travel to another tough site.
Texas A&M looked great against Arizona State in the opener, getting two late touchdowns to turn a 7-point game into a 21-point rout. The Aggies did what they had to versus both Ball State and Nevada. Last week they trailed Arkansas 21-13 late in the fourth, but rallied for the tying touchdown and two-point conversion and won in OT.
Last year, Mississippi State dominated the game, leading 48-17 before allowing a couple of late garbage touchdowns. Dak Prescott is completing 67 percent of his passes with a 7-0 TD-to-INT ratio and A&M is just 1-8 ATS as a favorite versus SEC foes the last three seasons. Mississippi State is 9-2 ATS as an SEC dog.
ATS pick: Mississippi State
Score: Texas A&M, 30 Mississippi State 27
Eastern Michigan Eagles at No. 9 LSU Tigers (-44.5)
7 p.m. ET, ESPNU
Here's a stat for you: If you bet against every team in the AP top 12 on a weekly basis if they weren't taking on a top-20 foe, you would right now be 28-10 ATS on the year! The last two weeks you would be 15-3 ATS, as Vegas keeps putting a premium number on these top 12 teams, which are public plays.
This week it is Leonard Fournette against the worst rush defense in the FBS as Eastern Michigan is allowing 373 yards per game and 6.7 yards per carry! That is a huge mismatch but Eastern has been competitive this season, leading its first three games at the half and last week only trailing Army by six in the fourth quarter. The Eagles have a decent front seven, led by DE Pat O' Conner and LB Anthony Zappone. LSU has South Carolina on deck and won't risk getting Fournette injured by playing him in the second half. The last four years, Les Miles is 1-5 ATS when the spread is 31 or more versus a nonconference foe, if LSU is off a win with an SEC game on deck.
ATS pick: Eastern Michigan
Score: LSU 48, Eastern Michigan 16
No. 13 Alabama Crimson Tide at No 8 Georgia Bulldogs (-2.5)
3:30 p.m. ET, CBS
Alabama is an underdog for the first time in the regular season since 2008, when they traveled Between The Hedges to Georgia. The Crimson Tide led that game 31-0 at the half. They were an underdog in 2009, but that was the SEC title game. Georgia has lost seven times the last two years outright as a favorite.
Alabama has taken on my No. 5-toughest schedule (faced Wisconsin and Ole Miss) while Georgia has only taken on my No. 98-rated schedule. Despite that fact, the statistics are close with Georgia at plus-218 yards per game and Alabama right there at plus-193. The Crimson Tide's defense is holding opponents to 239 yards below their season average and the Bulldogs' defense is holding foes to 85 yards below their average. The clincher is this is a must-win for Bama to stay alive in the national title chase while Georgia can lose this game, still win out and get there.
ATS pick: Alabama
Score: Alabama 27, Georgia 24
