Phil Steele, ESPN Staff Writer
Each week during the 2015 college football season I will offer up my selections and scores for the weekend's biggest games and a handful of other key matchups.
This year has started off on a solid note. In the first six weeks, my selections have now gone 49-11 (82 percent) picking the straight-up (SU) winners and 34-25-1 (58 percent) against the spread (ATS).
Note: Lines from Westgate SuperBook as of Thursday morning.
Purdue Boilermakers at Wisconsin Badgers (-23.5)
Noon ET, Big Ten Network
The Badgers have dominated this series, as they have now won nine in a row both SU and ATS, including the last seven meetings by an average of 28 points per game. The last two weeks, Wisconsin has outgained Iowa 320-221 and Nebraska 469-325 on the road.
Joel Stave threw 50 passes for the Badgers last week, but I expect the Badgers to get back to the ground-and-pound attack this week. Purdue has allowed 297 rushing yards per game and 6.2 yards per carry in its two Big Ten games versus teams that had been struggling to run the ball (Minnesota, Michigan State).
ATS pick: Wisconsin
Score: Wisconsin 38, Purdue 6
No. 8 Florida Gators at No. 7 LSU Tigers (-9)
7:00 p.m. ET ESPN
Florida has three close wins, then beat No. 3 Ole Miss at home and just knocked off Missouri, the two-time defending SEC East champs on the road. Now they have to travel again, and will be without starting quarterback Will Grier, who was suspended for the season. Grier was a huge upgrade over their quarterback play of the last few years. Treon Harris has a 5-2 career record as a starter but has completed just 51 percent of his passes in his career.
LSU is off four rather easy victories and the last time the Tigers hosted a meaningful SEC game, they led Auburn 24-0 at the half with a 323-65 yard edge. Add in the start time of 6:00 p.m. CT and this will be a night game after one quarter, and Death Valley is a lot tougher at night. I will take the fresher and more talented home team here to win and cover.
ATS pick: LSU
Score: LSU 24, Florida 10
West Virginia Mountaineers at No. 2 Baylor Bears (-21)
Noon ET, FOX
West Virginia has a solid team, but I've won by going against them the last two weeks (at Oklahoma, vs. Oklahoma State). This is their toughest matchup of the current three-game stretch, as they now have to travel to the state of Texas. West Virginia lost its last trip to Waco, 73-42, in 2013.
Baylor may be the freshest team in the country, as the Bears have gotten off to big leads and rested their starters in the second halves. They are still averaging 64 points per game and their defense is holding foes to 114 yards below their season average. This is the toughest opponent the Bears have faced this year so they will be pumped up. Did I mention that West Virginia dealt them their only regular-season loss last year and that kept them out of the playoff?
ATS pick: Baylor
Score: Baylor 55, West Virginia 23
Missouri Tigers at Georgia Bulldogs (-15)
7:30 p.m. ET, SEC Network
Last year, Georgia traveled to Missouri without running back Todd Gurley, who was injured the week before. Missouri ended up in the SEC title game but Georgia beat the Tigers by a convincing 34-0 score. This year, the Bulldogs lost their star running back again with Nick Chubb going down on the first play versus Tennessee. They are still extremely talented, and after two straight losses will be ready to take out their frustrations.
Missouri had the chance to save its season last week. Despite being unimpressive as usual to start the year, a win last week over Florida could have done wonders. The Tigers were at home and catching the Gators on a fourth-straight tough road game; Missouri laid an egg and lost by 18. Georgia might be the toughest team Missouri has faced this year, and this time the situation favors an angry Bulldog team.
ATS pick: Georgia
Score: Georgia 34, Missouri 9
Nebraska Cornhuskers (+2.5) at Minnesota Golden Gophers
3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN2
The Mike Riley era appears to have gotten off to a disastrous start, as the Cornhuskers are a poor 2-4. Upon closer inspection, Nebraska has lost on a Hail Mary, in overtime, on a touchdown with 10 seconds left and on a field goal with 4 seconds left. The Cornhuskers are basically four plays away from being 6-0! They actually have a decent shot of winning out, and if they do that they could find themselves in the Big Ten title game (with some help).
Minnesota rolled to a 41-13 win over lowly Purdue last week but is still a banged-up team. The Golden Gophers are 4-2, but have won three of their games by three points each, so they're a handful of plays from being 1-5! Nebraska is playing for revenge after losing a couple of close games as a double-digit favorite the last two years. The better team here is the one with the weaker record and is the 'dog.
ATS pick: Nebraska
Score: Nebraska 21, Minnesota 17
No. 7 Michigan State Spartans (+8) at No. 12 Michigan Wolverines
3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN
This is a game I disagree with my computer on. With Michigan playing better than expected in every game and Michigan State playing down to the level of its competition each week, my computer has Michigan winning by 21. I know Michigan State is banged up, but this is basically the same team that was favored by five in this matchup in the preseason.
Sparty has always played great with a chip on their shoulder, but this year has mostly been a large favorite, which is not their cup of tea. The last 14 times they have been a 'dog, they have won nine outright and are 12-2 ATS. They are 6-1 SU and 7-0 ATS versus Michigan in the last seven meetings.
ATS pick: Michigan State
Score: Michigan State 17, Michigan 16
Eastern Michigan Eagles at No. 22 Toledo Rockets (-28)
Noon ET
Toledo entered the rankings last week for just the second time since 2001. The Rockets had a bad snap go over their punter's head, which handed Kent State an early touchdown lead; Toledo outscored the Golden Flashes 38-0 after that. They are a complete team with a solid run game and defense. The Rockets have a great shot at going unbeaten and landing the Group of Five major bowl bid.
I used Eastern Michigan as a selection two weeks ago when they faced LSU getting over six touchdowns and they only lost by 22. Last week, the Eagles trailed Akron 40-14 at the half, and their rush defense is allowing 362 yards per game and 6.7 yards per carry. Toledo is 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS in the series and I look for more of the same this week.
ATS pick: Toledo
Score: Toledo 52, Eastern Michigan 13
No. 17 Iowa Hawkeyes at No. 20 Northwestern Wildcats (+2.5)
Noon ET, ABC
Northwestern gave up a kick return touchdown on the opening play at Michigan last week and was never in the game, losing 38-0. Iowa remained unbeaten last week and beat Northwestern 48-7 last year. I still like the 'dog here.
The home team has now won five in a row in the series both SU and ATS. Northwestern's defense is holding foes to 134 yards below their season average while Iowa's is at 63 yards below. Northwestern already beat Stanford at home and Iowa's top defensive lineman Drew Ott is now out for the year. Iowa was outgained 320-221 in a trip to Wisconsin two weeks ago.
ATS pick: Northwestern
Score: Northwestern 21, Iowa 17
No 10 Alabama Crimson Tide (-4) at No. 9 Texas A&M Aggies
3:30 p.m. ET, CBS
Alabama has struggled versus the spread offense and in Nick Saban and Kirby Smart's first two matchups versus Texas A&M, they allowed 418 and 628 yards, respectively. They had to listen to all that chatter for basically two years but last year got the Aggies at home and rolled to a 59-0 shutout win in a game in which they had a 455-51 yard edge at the half.
This year's Aggies squad is a lot stronger than the 2014 version and has an improved defense with John Chavis calling the shots. While Texas A&M is off a bye and at home, I still feel Alabama has the talent edge. Since Alabama is the lower-ranked team here, Saban will likely be playing the underdog card again.
ATS pick: Alabama
Score: Alabama 30, Texas A&M 23
No. 3 TCU Horned Frogs at Iowa State Cyclones (+21)
7 p.m. ET, ESPN2
TCU figures to be more focused than last week when the Horned Frogs trailed 35-17 at the half. TCU has struggled on the road, as it is just 2-12 ATS as an away favorite. They have a bye on deck.
Iowa State was pummeled by Texas Tech 66-31 last week and lost this game 55-3 on the road last year. This year's game is at windy Jack Trice Stadium, which should help slow down the Frogs' pass attack. In Paul Rhodes' 39 home games, only five times have the Cyclones lost by more than 21 points. Look for Iowa State to keep this closer than expected.
ATS pick: Iowa State
Score: TCU 44, Iowa State 30
